Euro exchange rate forecast for May. Forecast of the dollar and euro exchange rates for May. No sharp currency fluctuations are expected in May. “We change currency every quarter”

Some experts believe that the potential for ruble strengthening in May may be exhausted. These arguments are indirectly confirmed by statistics, which show that the periods April-May have been the most favorable for the ruble over the past three years. This is mainly due to rising oil prices ahead of the driving season in the US and Europe. 2016 is also still in line with previous trends. From January values of $30 per barrel, Brent rose to $48. By the end of May, black gold may reach the psychologically important $50 per barrel. In this case, the ruble will cost according to 63-64 ruble per unit of American currency.

What then?

However, May may become the last month of prosperity for the ruble in 2016.

The consumer confidence index is at a historical low. 70% of respondents do not believe the situation will improve.
The decline in industrial production has continued for more than a year with a break of one month.
Consumption fell by 9.6%, 76% are trying to save money, 61% are refusing new clothes, 45% are refusing new electronics, and 52% of Russians have switched to cheaper products. At the same time, expenses exceed incomes, and the poverty level will rise by almost 1% in 2016.
Also, and oil revenues are . Imports decreased by 25%, investment in fixed assets by 7.6%, .
But perhaps the most important and obvious indicator of growing problems is a significant reduction in deposit rates largest banks countries. 5-6% in rubles and 0% in foreign currency means that banks do not know what to do with the money - the economy stands still.

Summarizing all of the above, we can assume a downward trend in the ruble exchange rate, starting from the last days of May until the end of 2016, with a fairly high

Changing the euro exchange rate is nothing new to this monetary unit. It has always been so that currency pairs they either fell or grew, and the main impetus for such changes was the economy of the countries. If five years ago the exchange rate floated freely in the corridor from 40 to 50 rubles per euro, then with the onset of Black Friday 2014, it simply soared to incredible heights and at that time was 76 rubles. It seemed simply incredible and the ruble suffered significantly from such a decrease in the price of oil, but this did not turn out to be the end.

Until the end of 2015, the euro simply continued to grow until it reached 86 rubles; the beginning of 2016 was marked by a gradual fall in the rate to 50 rubles per euro. At the beginning of 2017, experts predicted a slow increase in the exchange rate of the European currency, and so it happened, and to this day there is an increase in the value of the euro.

It is quite difficult to give a definite answer to this question, because a possible increase in the euro exchange rate depends on several reasons, and
It is quite difficult to predict them. If we talk about the spring of 2019, then yes - there are prerequisites and they can be identified. First of all, this is the policy of Donald Trump and the economic situation of the country as a whole. After all, if the dollar fluctuates, the euro will temporarily strengthen its position. And vice versa. Rabobank - supplier financial services from Holland - announced its exchange rate for the European currency against the backdrop of upcoming changes in expectations for the future policy of the Central Bank. European Central Bank policymakers are leaning toward announcing a taper of its asset purchase program in September, and the Federal backup system The US will now suddenly lower rates.

Late last year, Rabobank argued that disappointment with Trump's policies would lead to a softer dollar in 2017. Related expectations led analysts to conclude that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates more than twice this year. Economic data European zone remain in positive territory with slight signs of slowing towards the end of 2017. Growth in second-quarter data shows the Spanish economy returned to pre-crisis levels by 0.9%. Inflation data is also positive and could lead to a 2% rise in the ECB. This is the main objective that justifies the need to withdraw ECB stimulus support within recent years. Improvement economic situation in the Eurozone, Fed speculation may change the direction of policy. There are fears that the growth of the euro will not be constant and the period of consolidation is quite close.

What affects the ruble/euro exchange rate?

The ruble exchange rate depends on many factors and this is not only sanctions, but also the policies of banks, the economic situation in the world, the cost of black gold. All this together forms a stable or unstable exchange rate.

The strong euro has significantly tightened monetary conditions this year. Although the euro is still undervalued against the dollar and ruble at parity purchasing power. In turn, central banks rarely welcome volatility foreign exchange market, and the ECB is interested in the rapid movement of the currency pair.

Experts expect the Fed will not act on policy again this year. Those who wanted to make money on the euro exchange rate may have already missed the boat that was worth getting on. IN in value terms, EUR/USD compared to bond yields is a kind of fundamental assessment.

The current charts speak for themselves - the euro/dollar pair has moved away from the differential in the US and Germany in yield spreads on government bonds. Ultimately, the outcome will most likely be such that the rate will go down.

Euro exchange rate forecast for May 2018

In May, as in April 2019, there will be a minimal depreciation of the euro against the euro. According to forecasts, the mark will be 77.31 rubles compared to 80.85 rubles per euro in April. There will no longer be maximums, as was observed a couple of years ago; forecasters are not talking about any sharp rises; on the contrary, if you want to place another bet on an increase, then you should act in 2017.

The euro exchange rate forecast for May 2019, based on statements by Sberbank experts, is as follows:

date	Possible course
May 1, Tuesday	75,31
May 2, Wednesday	75,54
May 3, Thursday	75,86
May 4, Friday	76,28
May 7, Monday	76,91
May 8, Tuesday	77,11
May 9, Wednesday	76,11
May 10, Thursday	75,95
May 11, Friday	74,97
May 14, Monday	73,59
May 15, Tuesday	73,52
May 16, Wednesday	73,34
May 17, Thursday	73,14
May 18, Friday	73,04
May 21, Monday	73,54
May 22, Tuesday	73,83
May 23, Wednesday	74,2
May 24, Thursday	74,77
May 25, Friday	75,14
May 28, Monday	76,75
May 29, Tuesday	76,95
May 30, Wednesday	76,9
May 31, Thursday	76,86

Which currency is better to invest in?

In the current economic situation, any currency is not stable, but in the hope of making money, you can use the euro, only until May 2019 inclusive, then the rate will begin a slow but constant decline.

The dynamics of oil prices allowed the ruble to partially win back its positions. In addition, the strengthening of the Russian currency is associated with the Fed’s decision to maintain the current rate level.

However, experts do not rule out new stage devaluation, which will provoke an increase in quotations to 80 rubles/dollar.

External factors

Rising prices for “black gold” above $40 per barrel. became the main factor in the strengthening of the Russian currency. The change in trend in the oil market is associated with the desire of oil exporters to limit the level of raw material production. Despite the difficulties encountered, participants oil market a compromise may be reached in the near future, which will lead to price stabilization.

In addition, previous expert estimates of an oversupply of raw materials on the market may be overestimated. Restoring balance in the market is possible by the end current year, says the head of the Ministry of Energy Alexander Novak. In this case, the price of oil will continue to rise steadily.

An additional factor in the strengthening of the ruble was the Fed’s decision to leave the current rate level in effect. Previously, representatives of the regulator allowed another stage of rate increases at the beginning of this year, subject to positive dynamics of the American economy. However, the current rate of economic growth does not fully correspond to the optimistic expectations of the Fed, which was reflected in the regulator’s decision.

Metallinvestbank representative Selim Agarzaev notes that maintaining the Fed rate level will have a positive impact on the position of the ruble. This decision will contribute to the weakening of the dollar, which will lead to an increase in oil prices.

The improvement in the external background allowed the ruble to partially win back its lost positions. However, oil market trends may soon change again. In addition, the government continues to look for options to balance the budget deficit. One of the possible tools remains the weakening of the Russian currency. As a result, the forecast for the dollar/ruble exchange rate allows for several scenarios for 2016.

Various scenarios

If “black gold” continues to restore its value, then the ruble has a chance to strengthen to maximum values this year. In May, the value of the dollar will drop to 65 rubles, which will become a reality at prices of 45 dollars per barrel. Representatives of APECON expect the Russian currency to fluctuate in the range of 65-67 rubles/dollar.

Alfa Bank also expects the dollar to cost 64-65 rubles if the cost of a barrel reaches $44. However, the dynamics of the oil market remain unpredictable. The bank's analysts assume a drop in oil prices to $34-36 per barrel if exporters fail to resolve all controversial issues. In this case, the ruble will face a new period of devaluation, which will lead to an increase in the exchange rate to 80 rubles/dollar.

Eurozone economic downturn forces ECB to expand current program quantitative easing. The regulator intends to stimulate the economic growth, including by reducing the refinancing rate, which reached zero. In addition, EU countries continue to solve problems with refugees, which affects economic indicators. As a result, the euro’s position is under pressure, which is reflected in the forecast of quotations against the ruble for 2016.

In a favorable scenario for the Russian currency, by May the rate will return to the corridor of 73-75 rubles/euro. A decrease in oil prices will lead to an increase in the value of the euro to 85-90 rubles.

The government will have to resolve the issue of financing the budget deficit, which, according to former head of the Ministry of Finance Alexei Kudrin, will significantly exceed previous forecasts of officials. The simplest option is an issue, which will lead to a weakening of the ruble. However, experts believe that authorities use this tool only as a last resort.

However, experts do not rule out a new stage of devaluation, which will provoke an increase in quotations to 80 rubles/dollar.

External factors

Rising prices for “black gold” above $40 per barrel. became the main factor in the strengthening of the Russian currency. The change in trend in the oil market is associated with the desire of oil exporters to limit the level of raw material production. Despite the emerging difficulties, oil market participants may soon come to a compromise, which will lead to price stabilization.

In addition, previous expert estimates of an oversupply of raw materials on the market may be overestimated. Restoring balance in the market is possible by the end of this year, says the head of the Ministry of Energy, Alexander Novak. In this case, the price of oil will continue to rise steadily.

Various scenarios

If “black gold” continues to restore its value, then the ruble has a chance to strengthen to its maximum values this year. In May, the value of the dollar will drop to 65 rubles, which will become a reality at prices of 45 dollars per barrel. Representatives of APECON expect the Russian currency to fluctuate in the range of 65-67 rubles/dollar.

The economic downturn in the eurozone is forcing the ECB to expand its current quantitative easing program. The regulator intends to stimulate economic growth, including by reducing the refinancing rate, which has reached zero. In addition, EU countries continue to solve problems with refugees, which is reflected in economic indicators. As a result, the euro’s position is under pressure, which is reflected in the forecast of quotations against the ruble for 2016.

The site compiled an accurate currency forecast for May 2016 especially for blog subscribers. All data was provided by experienced analysts from Amarkets and ForexClub. The exchange rate forecast for May 2016 includes currencies such as the euro and dollar, which is what interests our compatriots most of all.

Currency forecast for May 2016

IN Lately The market saw a strengthening of the ruble against all world currencies. By at least, this conclusion can be made if we analyze statistical data Central Bank.

Irina Rogova, who this moment holds the position of analyst at ForexClub, recalled that the ruble is still influenced by the cost of black gold. Rogova added that oil production volumes in the United States have continued to decline since the beginning of 2016, but speculative demand alone will not get you far and oil is unlikely to rise above $50 per barrel. Rogova does not rule out that oil could reach this level as early as next week. If the price of oil continues to increase, it is not difficult to conclude that the dollar/ruble pair will head down. Rogova assumes that the price will drop to 63.4.

At the moment, the price of oil is increasing after a sharp fall. The increase in value is due to the dollar falling against the yen to lows since 2014.

Oil analyst Virendra Chauhuan said that oil prices are rising due to the depreciation of the dollar. The decline in the dollar makes black gold sell in American currency, lower in cost for foreign currency investors.

Other experts claim that the price of oil has gone up due to the fact that oil exporters have limited production volumes. Despite some difficulties, in the near future, oil market participants may still come to a common denominator, which, in turn, will lead to price stabilization.

Recently, a representative of the Iranian oil company NIOC said Tehran is ready to join the plan to freeze oil volumes due to the fact that Iran has already restored its previous oil production levels that were before the imposition of sanctions. I would like to remind you that it is for this reason that the countries that gathered in Doha on April 17 were unable to reach a common denominator.

A few days earlier, the director of the National Iranian Oil Company stated that Iran had reached an oil production level of 3.7 million barrels per day. Yesterday, Tehran reported that Iran had achieved its target and cited the figure as 4.2 million.

Let me remind you that in Doha the countries did not reach general agreement, primarily due to Saudi Arabia’s refusal to conclude an agreement, which insisted that all countries, including Iran, participate in the agreement.

It is also worth noting the fact that the previous estimate of an oversupply of black gold on the market was still overestimated. Alexander Novak said that prices could stabilize by the end of 2016. In this situation, the price of oil will continue to rise.

Another reason for the strengthening of oil prices lies in the Fed's decision to leave current interest rates in place. Previously, it was planned to raise rates provided that the US economy prospered. However, the current situation in America did not live up to optimistic views, as a result of which it was decided to leave interest rates unchanged.

Metallinvestbank representative Selim Agarzaev said that maintaining the current interest rates will have a positive impact on the position of the ruble. This decision will lead to a cheaper dollar and higher oil prices. Thanks to all these factors, the ruble managed to strengthen its position. However, soon the price of oil may suddenly turn around and go in the opposite direction.

The Russian government is still looking for ways to balance the budget deficit. One of the possible tools is the weakening of the ruble. As a result, the currency forecast for 2016 may have several scenarios.

If the price of oil continues to rise, the ruble may rise to its 2016 high. In May, the dollar will cost 65 rubles, and the price of oil will be around $50 per barrel. APECON assures that in May the dollar will fluctuate in the range of 65-68.

Some analysts assume a drop in oil prices to $36-34 per barrel. Such a cost may be established if large oil producing companies are unable to reach an agreement. Under such circumstances, the ruble will depreciate and may reach 80 rubles per dollar.

Euro exchange rate forecast for May 2016

Due to economic downturn in Europe, the ECB is forced to expand its existing easing program. The ECB's main task is to improve the economy, including by reducing the refinancing rate, which is currently at zero. In addition, at the moment the European Union is closely engaged in solving problems with refugees, which has already had a positive impact on economic performance. The euro forecast for 2016 may also have several scenarios. If circumstances are favorable for Russia in May, the value of the euro should remain 73-75 rubles per euro. If the price of oil goes down, then our compatriots will have to pay 85-90 rubles for 1 euro.

The Russian government still needs to resolve the issue of the budget deficit, which, according to Alexei Kudrin, will seriously exceed the previous forecasts of officials. The simplest way to solve the problem is an emission, which will also lead to the devaluation of the Russian currency. Many analysts suggest that the government will resort to this method of solving the problem only as a last resort.

So, the currency forecast for May 2016 assumes 2 scenarios:

the rise in oil prices to $50 per barrel and the strengthening of the ruble to 63 rubles per dollar and 75 rubles per euro;
a drop in oil prices to $35 per barrel and devaluation of the ruble; the dollar and euro will cost 80 and 90 rubles, respectively.

I bring to your attention an accurate forecast of the euro exchange rate for May 2016, provided by Amarkets.