The Bank of Russia has updated its key rate. See what rates are in effect today, download the full table of refinancing rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2019 and previous periods 2018.
The value of the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today (2018-2019)
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation abolished the concept of the refinancing rate in 2016, now it is called the key rate. The Bank of Russia periodically approves the size of the key rate, the value of which corresponds to the refinancing rate. On December 14, 2018, the Central Bank approved the rate for the beginning of 2019, and on February 8 and March 22, 2019, it kept it at the same level. See below what size is valid today.
Today the refinancing rate approved by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is 7.75%. It has been in effect since December 17, 2018 (information is posted on the official website of the Bank of Russia). This is the second increase in the last four years - before that the figure was only declining. On March 22, 2019, at the next meeting of the Board of the Central Bank, the regulator left the rate at the same level.
Table of changes in the refinancing rate in 2018-2019
The interest rate (refinancing) was changed by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation several times. Below see the full table of rate values in 2018 - 2019.
|
Validity |
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|---|---|---|
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Information from the Central Bank of December 14, 2018 |
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| From September 17 to December 16, 2018 | 7, 5% | Information from the Central Bank of September 14, 2018 |
| From March 26, 2018 to September 16, 2018 | 7.25% | Information from the Central Bank of March 23, 2018 |
| From February 12, 2018 to March 25, 2018 | 7.5% | Information from the Central Bank dated 02/09/2018 |
| From December 18, 2017 to February 11, 2018 | 7.75% | Information from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated December 15, 2017 |
| From October 30, 2017 to December 17, 2017 | 8,25% | Information from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated October 27, 2017 |
| From September 18 to October 29, 2017 | 8,50% | Information from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated September 15, 2017 |
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Information from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated June 16, 2017 and July 28, 2017 |
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Information from the Bank of Russia dated April 28, 2017 |
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Information from the Bank of Russia dated March 24, 2017 |
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Information from the Bank of Russia dated September 16, 2016 |
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Information from the Bank of Russia dated June 10, 2016 |
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Directive of the Bank of Russia dated December 11, 2015 No. 3894-U |
Refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2018-2019
The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, at which the issue of the level of the key rate will be considered, is scheduled for April 26, 2019. The time for publishing a press release on the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia is 13:30 Moscow time. According to forecasts, the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2019 will be stable.
How to check the rate for today on the official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
You can check the current rate on the official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation cbr.ru
Important! On the official website of the Central Bank, see the value of the key rate for today. From January 1, 2016, the refinancing rate is equal to the key value.
Why does an accountant need to know the refinancing rate?
The accountant needs to know the refinancing rate in the following cases:
- Calculation of penalties for late payment taxes and fees;
- Calculation material benefit from savings on interest when calculating personal income tax;
- Calculation of compensation for delayed payment of wages and other similar payments.
Breaking news: The Ministry of Finance is developing
Below we will look at examples of how the refinancing rate is used in these cases in 2018, and how its change affects the calculation.
Penalties for late payment of taxes and fees
Any delay in paying taxes and fees entails the need to pay penalties. The amount of penalties is determined by the formula:
Example. Calculation of penalties
On July 25, 2018, the accountant submitted the VAT return for the 2nd quarter of 2018, and transferred 1/3 of the tax to the budget only on July 30. The amount of tax payable was 400,000 rubles.
Thus, the company was 4 days late in paying the tax (from July 26 to July 29).
The refinancing rate did not change during this period and amounted to 7.75%.
At the same time as paying the tax, it is necessary to transfer a penalty in the amount of 413.33rub. (RUB 400,000 * 7.75%: 300 * 4 days)
Important! If the refinancing rate changed during the period of late payment, then when calculating penalties, use the corresponding values for the periods of their validity.
Material benefits from saving on interest
In 2018, the date an individual receives income from saving on interest will be the last day of the month, so the accountant must know the interest rate (refinancing) of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today.
Use the following formula to calculate the amount of material benefit:
Important! To calculate the material benefit from saving on interest, changes in the rate “within” the month do not matter.
Compensation for delayed salary payment
Compensation for delayed payments to the employee is calculated based on 1/150 of the refinancing rate in effect today. Use the following formula:
Example. Compensation calculation
The company delayed payment of wages for January 2018 by 10 days. total amount the debt amounted to 500,000 rubles.
The key rate in January 2018 was 7.75%.
The amount of compensation was 2 rubles. (RUB 500,000 / 150 * 7.75% * 10 days)
Important! If the rate changed during the period of delay in payment to employees, then when calculating compensation, use the corresponding values for the periods of their validity.
The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation today is identical to the refinancing rate. These concepts have been combined by the Bank of Russia since 2016 (Instruction No. 3894-U, dated December 11, 2015). The purpose of the key rate is that it denotes the minimum interest level established for loans that the Central Bank issues to commercial financial and credit institutions. Additionally, this indicator fixes the maximum limit on the profitability of deposits that are opened by the Central Bank for banking organizations.
Key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today (2018): why is it needed and what does it affect?
For enterprises and individual entrepreneurs, the size of the key rate is important when determining the amount of penalties for late payment of taxes (Article 75 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation). Tax law sets the penalty for each day in proportion to the refinancing rate. The rule applies to both enterprises of all forms of ownership and areas of activity, and individuals. The penalty value can be calculated tax authority or the business entity itself.
What does the size of the key rate affect:
- with its help, the Central Bank can implement regulatory activities in the financial services market;
- it helps control inflation rates;
- this percentage acts as a starting point in calculating penalties by tax authorities or compensation for late payment of income to hired personnel;
- commercial credit organizations set rates for loan and deposit programs taking into account the current key rate (the interest rate on a loan from a commercial bank always exceeds the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation).
A decrease in the rate provokes an increase in the volume of money in circulation. Following the adjustment of the base interest commercial banks begin to lower their lending rates. This action may create conditions for increased activity in the domestic consumption market and for the intensification of industrial production. The negative side of this step is increased inflation.
When the key rate increases credit products become less profitable for both the population and business. For periods from high level key rate is characterized by a slowdown in economic growth. The positive side is increased interest in deposits.
Key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2018: table
Current data on the key rate can be viewed on the website of the Central Bank of Russia. Since 2016, this indicator has been adjusted only downwards - if in September 2016 it was at the level of 10%, now its value is 7.25%. Changes in rate levels are within the sphere of influence Central Bank Russia:
- a proposal to increase or decrease the level of the key rate is submitted for discussion to the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation by convening a special meeting;
- during the meeting are considered economic indicators development of the country and individual industries are analyzed possible consequences adjustments and a forecast assessment of financial risks is given;
- The outcome of the discussion may be the adoption of the proposed option or a decision to maintain the current limit.
The frequency of meetings is once every 6 weeks. The rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation today (2018) is 7.25% (per annum), lower it was recorded only in 2013 - early 2014. The last percentage adjustment occurred on March 26 current year. The table provides information about what the discount rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is in force today (2018) and how it has changed over time since the date of introduction.
| No. | Bet start date | Interest rate (annual) | Date of the meeting of the Board of Directors and publication of the document fixing the new key rate (information from the Bank of Russia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2013 (from September 13) | 5,5 | 13.09.2013 |
| 2 | 2014 (from March 3) | 7 | 03.03.2014 |
| 3 | 2014 (from April 28) | 7,5 | 25.04.2014 |
| 4 | 2014 (from July 28) | 8 | 25.07.2014 |
| 5 | 2014 (from November 5) | 9,5 | 31.10.2014 |
| 6 | 2014 (from December 12) | 10,5 | 11.12.2014 |
| 7 | 2014 (from December 16) | 17 | 16.12.2014 |
| 8 | 2015 (from February 2) | 15 | 30.01.2015 |
| 9 | 2015 (from March 16) | 14 | 13.03.2015 |
| 10 | 2015 (from May 5) | 12,5 | 30.04.2015 |
| 11 | 2015 (from June 16) | 11,5 | 15.06.2015 |
| 12 | 2015 (from August 3) | 11 | 31.07.2015 |
| 13 | 2016 (from June 14) | 10,5 | 10.06.2016 |
| 14 | 2016 (from September 19) | 10 | 16.09.2016 |
| 15 | 2017 (from March 27) | 9,75 | 24.03.2017 |
| 16 | 2017 (from May 2) | 9,25 | 28.04.2017 |
| 17 | 2017 (from June 19) | 9 | 16.06.2017 |
| 18 | 2017 (from September 18) | 8,5 | 15.09.2017 |
| 19 | 2017 (from October 30) | 8,25 | 27.10.2017 |
| 20 | 2017 (from December 18) | 7,75 | 15.12.2017 |
| 21 | 2018 (from February 12) | 7,5 | 09.02.2018 |
| 22 | 2018 (from March 26) | 7,25 | 23.03.2018 |
| 23 | 2018 (from September 17) | 7,5 | 4.09.2018 |
| 24 | 2018 (from December 17) | 7,75 | 14.12.2018 |
On June 15, 2018, the Board of Directors reviewed current inflation indicators and other indicators economic situation in the country, on the basis of which the (key) rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today was kept within 7.25%.
Here is an example of how data on the size of the key rate can be useful to an accountant - calculating penalties:
- the company was late in paying taxes in the amount of RUB 122,560;
- The delay period was 5 calendar days.
The percentage of penalties for legal entities is calculated as 1/300 of the key rate on the date of the offense for the first 30 days of delay, from the 31st day 1/150 of the rate is applied (clause 4 of Article 75 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation). The final calculation will look like:
(122,560 x 7.25% / 300) x 5 = 148.09 rub.
One of the most important indicators for the country's monetary policy is key rate TSB RF. Its level today determines not only the profitability of deposits placed with the regulator credit organizations, but also an overpayment for the borrowed funds received from him. Accordingly, the cost banking services, in the form of loans and deposits, is actually tied to this indicator. It also regulates penalties assessed by tax authorities and compensation received by citizens. For example, in case of untimely payment of wages to employees. That is, the size of the Central Bank’s key rate today, and in particular for 2018, is important for many industries. Therefore, below is a table with an indicator of this parameter, which allows us to evaluate its dynamics.
Table - the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today (2018) and its changes over the past 5 years
The concept of a key rate was introduced by the regulator not so long ago - on September 13, 2013. That's why maximum period The period for which it is possible to provide statistical data is 5 years. Additionally, it is worth noting that from the first day of 2016 the refinancing rate was equalized to it.
| Date of the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation |
Decision |
Set value (% per annum) |
|---|---|---|
| 12/14/2018 | Promote | 7.75 (current level) |
| 09/14/2018 | Promote | 7,50 |
| 03/23/2018 |
Downgrade |
7,25 |
| 02/09/2018 |
Downgrade |
7,50 |
| 12/15/2017 |
Downgrade |
7,75 |
| October 27, 2017 |
Downgrade |
8,25 |
| 09/15/2017 |
Downgrade |
8,50 |
| 06/16/2017 |
Downgrade |
9,00 |
| 04/28/2017 |
Downgrade |
9,25 |
| 03/24/2017 |
Downgrade |
9,75 |
| 09/16/2016 |
Downgrade |
10,00 |
| 06/10/2016 |
Downgrade |
10,50 |
| 07/31/2015 | Downgrade | 11,00 |
| 06/15/2015 | Downgrade | 11,50 |
| 04/30/2015 | Downgrade | 12,50 |
| 03/13/2015 | Downgrade | 14,00 |
| 01/30/2015 | Downgrade | 15,00 |
| 12/16/2014 | Increase | 17,00 |
| 12/11/2014 | Increase | 10,50 |
| 05.11.2014 | Increase | 9,50 |
| 07/25/2014 | Increase | 8,00 |
| 04/25/2014 | Increase | 7,50 |
| 03/03/2014 | Increase | 7,00 |
| 09/13/2013 | Install | 5,50 |
A significant increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dates back to the end of 2014. As an emergency, at an extraordinary meeting of the Board of Directors, it was immediately increased by 6.5 percentage points. – up to 17% per annum. Even the overall systematic increase in the parameter under consideration over the previous 15 months was not so significant - by 5% per annum over 4 meetings. After this, there is a gradual decrease in the key rate - through 15 decisions over almost 4 years by 9.75% per annum. This trend lasted until mid-September of this year. On September 14, 2018, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decided to increase the key rate by 0.25% per annum. Thus, it was increased for the first time in almost 4 years.
The forecast for the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2018, given by our portal, has come true. True, pessimistic: “an increase of 0.25% per annum.” It is worth noting that in the current 2018 there will be no more changes in the key rate. That is, it will remain at 7.75% until the end of the year.
Meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the key rate 2018 – schedule
Changing the parameter under consideration is within the competence of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank Russian Federation. Its meeting is held according to a clearly approved schedule. It is prepared in advance. For example, for the current year 2018 it was approved and published on the official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on September 27, 2017. In accordance with it, meetings will be held or have already taken place on the following days:
- 02/09/2018 (rate reduced by 0.25% per annum);
- 03/23/2018 (rate reduced by 0.25% per annum);
- 04/27/2018 (rate remained at the same level);
- 06/15/2018 (the rate remained at the same level);
- 07/27/2018 (rate remained at the same level);
- 09/14/2018 (rate increased by 0.25% per annum);
- 10/26/2018 (the rate remained at the same level);
- 12/14/2018 (rate increased by 0.25% per annum).
All scheduled meetings that were scheduled for 2018 took place. It is worth noting that meetings of the Board of Directors are held mainly on Fridays. Scheduled for 13:30 Moscow time. Accordingly, the new key rate level, if it has been changed, comes into force on the first working day after the meeting. For example, this year both decreases did not fall on February 9 and March 23, but on Mondays following these dates - on February 12 and March 26, respectively. The situation is identical with the increase in the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation from September 17, 2018, which was decided on September 14 of this year.
What affects the key rate of the Bank of Russia
During the meeting, a huge number of micro and macroeconomic indicators are considered. Starting from the rate of change consumer prices and ending with possible changes in tax legislation. If we define the main general directions, then there are four of them:
- Inflation dynamics;
- Monetary conditions (attractiveness and demand for lending, deposits, etc.);
- Economic activity (citizens, enterprises);
- Inflation risks (forecast of possible changes in the inflation level).
Thus, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation actually reflects economic condition the country as a whole today. Accordingly, it takes into account a huge number of different indicators.
central bank Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)
Press service
107016, Moscow, st. Neglinnaya, 12
Information
The Bank of Russia decided to reduce the key rate to 10.00% per annum
On September 16, 2016, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to reducethe key rate to 10.00% per annum, taking into account the slowdown in inflation in accordance with the forecast and the decline in inflation expectations while maintaining unstable economic activity. At the same time, in order to consolidate the trend towards a sustainable decrease in inflation, according to Bank of Russia estimates, it is necessary to maintain the achieved level of the key rate until the end of 2016 with the possibility of reducing it in the first-IIquarter of 2017. Taking into account the decision made and maintaining a moderately tough monetary credit policy The annual growth rate of consumer prices will be about 4.5% in September 2017 and will further decline to the target level of 4% at the end of 2017. When deciding on the key rate in the coming months, the Bank of Russia will assess inflation risks and the compliance of economic dynamics and inflation with the baseline forecast.
When making a decision on the key rate, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia proceeded from the following.
First. Inflation has dropped noticeably, which is in line with the Bank of Russia’s baseline forecast. The annual growth rate of consumer prices is estimated to have slowed to 6.6% as of September 12, 2016, from 7.2% in July. However, the decrease in inflation was, in particular, due to the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in conditions of more favorable foreign economic conditions than previously expected. The slow decline in the growth rate of prices for non-food products observed under these conditions is a sign of the weakening disinflationary influence of domestic demand. IN recent months Seasonally adjusted monthly consumer price growth rates remain elevated. Maintaining the key rate at 10.00% for quite a long time will create the monetary conditions necessary to consolidate the trend towards a further sustainable slowdown in inflation under the influence of restrictions on the demand side. The stabilization of the ruble and the expected good harvest will also contribute to a reduction in the growth rate of consumer prices. This will create conditions for a further reduction in inflation expectations. Taking into account the decision made and the preservation of a moderately tight monetary policy, according to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, annual inflation will be about 4.5% in September 2017 and will subsequently decrease to the target level of 4% at the end of 2017.
Second. The Bank of Russia expects that decision on the key rate and maintaining it at the achieved level will reduce inflation expectations. Currently, the structure of market interest rates by maturity and survey results indicate that market participants are forecasting a faster decline in interest rates than the Bank of Russia. At the same time, their inflation forecasts for the end of 2017 exceed the Bank of Russia target of 4%. In reality, the potential for a reduction in nominal rates is limited, and moderately tight monetary conditions will remain in the economy for quite a long time. This is driven by the need to maintain positive real interest rates at a level that will ensure demand for credit without increasing inflationary pressures and also maintain incentives to save.
Third. The ongoing recovery in manufacturing activity remains fragile. Its heterogeneity across industries and regions remains. According to the Bank of Russia, moderately tight monetary conditions do not impede the recovery of economic activity, and the main obstacles lie in the structural area. The labor market is adapting to new economic conditions, unemployment remains at a stable low level. The development of import substitution processes continues, as well as the expansion of non-resource exports for some items; additional growth points have emerged in industry, including in high-tech industries. At the same time, they cannot yet ensure confident positive dynamics in production as a whole. At the same time, there is stagnation or a slowdown in output growth rates in certain industries, and investments continue to decline. It takes time to develop and consolidate positive trends. Positive quarterly GDP growth is expected in the second half of this year, but in 2017 the GDP growth rate will be low - less than 1%. This forecast is based on conservative assumptions about low growth rates of the global economy, the average annual oil price of about 40 US dollars per barrel and the persistence of structural restrictions on the development of the Russian economy.
Fourth. Risks remain that inflation will not reach the target level of 4% in 2017. This is mainly due to the inertia of inflation expectations and the possible weakening of household incentives to save. Certainty has not yet been achieved regarding specific fiscal consolidation measures, including wage indexation and social payments, on the medium term horizon. The volatility of global commodity and financial markets can also have a negative impact on exchange rate and inflation expectations.
To consolidate the trend toward a sustainable decline in inflation, according to Bank of Russia estimates, it is necessary to maintain the achieved level of the key rate until the end of 2016 with the possibility of reducing it in the first and second quarters of 2017. When deciding on the key rate in the coming months, the Bank of Russia will assess inflation risks and the compliance of economic dynamics and inflation with the baseline forecast.
The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, at which the issue of the level of the key rate will be considered, is scheduled for October 28, 2016. The time for publishing a press release on the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia is 13:30 Moscow time.
Interest rates on Bank of Russia operations
(% per annum)
| Purpose | Tool type | Tool | Term | from 06/14/2016 | from 09/19/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providing liquidity | Overnight loans; currency swap transactions (ruble part); pawn loans; REPO | 1 day | 11,50 | 11,00 | |
| Gold-backed loans | 1 day | 11,50 | 11,00 | ||
| from 2 to 549 days 1 | 12,00 | 11,50 | |||
| Loans secured by non-marketable assets or guarantees | 1 day | 11,50 | 11,00 | ||
| from 2 to 549 days 1 | 12,25 | 11,75 | |||
| Operations on open market(minimum interest rates) | Auctions for the provision of loans secured by non-marketable assets 1 | from 1 to 3 weeks 2, 3 months, 18 months 2 | 10,75 | 10,25 | |
| Lombard credit auctions 1, 2 | 36 months | 10,75 | 10,25 | ||
| Repo auctions and currency swaps | from 1 to 6 days 3, 1 week | 10.50 (key rate) | 10.00 (key rate) | ||
| Liquidity absorption | Open market operations (maximum interest rates) | Deposit auctions | from 1 to 6 days 3, 1 week | ||
| Continuous Operations | Deposit operations | 1 day, on demand | 9,50 | 9,00 | |
| For reference: Refinancing rate 4 |
|||||
| 1 Loans provided at a floating interest rate tied to the key rate of the Bank of Russia. |
| 2 Auctions have been suspended since July 1, 2016. |
| 3 “Fine-tuning” operations. |
| 4 Value of the Bank of Russia refinancing rate from 01/01/2016equated to the value of the Bank of Russia key rate on the corresponding date. From 01/01/2016, an independent value of the refinancing rate is not established.Refinancing rate values until 01/01/2016 |
| Interest rates on Bank of Russia operations that are suspended |
Key rate of the Bank of Russia and all its changes
The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation today (since December 17, 2018) is 7.75%. The next Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, held on April 26, 2019, decided to maintain the key rate at 7.75% per annum. This key rate will be valid until June 14, 2019.
In March of this year, annual inflation passed a local peak, and in April it began to slow down. At the same time, the current growth rate of consumer prices is slightly lower than the forecast of the Bank of Russia. In April, households' inflation expectations increased slightly after their noticeable decline in March. Price expectations of enterprises continued to decline, but remain at an elevated level. Short-term pro-inflationary risks have decreased. The decisions of the Bank of Russia to increase the key rate in September and December 2018 were sufficient to limit the effects of one-time pro-inflationary factors.
According to the Bank of Russia forecast, annual inflation will return to 4% in the first half of 2020.
Bank of Russia key rate for April-June 2019
At the regular meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, held on April 26, 2019 It was decided to keep the key rate at 7.75%. This key rate will be valid from December 17, 2018 to June 14, 2019, i.e. before the date of the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia.
The previous key rate of the Bank of Russia was 7.50% and its validity period lasted three months (from September 17, 2018 to December 16, 2018).
Inflation dynamics.Annual inflation passed a local peak in March. The annual growth rate of consumer prices in March increased to 5.3% (from 5.2% in February 2019). In April, annual inflation began to slow down and, according to estimates as of April 22, fell to 5.1%. At the same time, the current growth rate of consumer prices is slightly lower than the forecast of the Bank of Russia. The transfer of the VAT increase to prices is largely complete.The proactive decisions of the Bank of Russia to increase the key rate in September and December 2018 contributed to the return of the monthly growth rate of consumer prices to levels close to 4% in annual terms. The dynamics of consumer demand have a restraining effect on inflation. In addition, temporary disinflationary factors also contributed to the slowdown in consumer price growth, including the strengthening of the ruble since the beginning of this year, a decrease in prices for main types of motor fuel and certain food products in March-April compared to February.
In April, households' inflation expectations increased slightly after their noticeable decline in March. Price expectations of enterprises continued to decline, but remain at an elevated level.
According to the Bank of Russia forecast, annual inflation will return to 4% in the first half of 2020.
Monetary conditions. Since the previous meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, monetary conditions have not changed significantly. OFZ yields and deposit-credit rates remained close to the levels of the end of March. At the same time, the decrease in OFZ yields that has occurred since the beginning of this year creates conditions for a decrease deposit and credit rates in future.
Economic activity. The revision by Rosstat of data on GDP dynamics in 2014–2018 does not change the Bank of Russia’s view on Current state economy - it is close to potential. The dynamics of consumer demand and the situation on the labor market do not create excessive inflationary pressure. In the first quarter, the annual growth rate of industrial production was moderate and slightly lower than in the fourth quarter of last year. Investment activity remains subdued. Annual turnover growth rate retail decreased in the first quarter due to a VAT increase and slower growth wages.
The Bank of Russia expects GDP growth of 1.2–1.7% for 2019. The VAT increase had a slight restraining effect on business activity. Additional received budget resources Already in 2019, they will be aimed at increasing government spending, including of an investment nature. In subsequent years, it is possible that the rate of economic growth will increase as national projects are implemented.
Inflation risks. Short-term pro-inflationary risks have decreased. In terms of internal conditions, the risks of secondary effects from the VAT increase are assessed as insignificant; the risks of accelerated price increases for certain food products have decreased.
At the same time, elevated and unanchored inflation expectations remain significant risks, as well as external factors. In particular, risks of a slowdown in global economic growth remain. Geopolitical factors may lead to increased volatility in global commodity and financial markets and affect exchange rate and inflation expectations. Supply side factors in the oil market may increase the volatility of global oil prices. At the same time, the revision of interest rate trajectories by the US Federal Reserve and central banks of other countries with developed markets in the first quarter limits the risks of sustainable capital outflow from countries with emerging markets.
The Bank of Russia’s assessment of risks associated with wage dynamics, possible changes in consumer behavior and budget expenditures, has not changed significantly. These risks remain moderate.
The Bank of Russia will make decisions on the key rate taking into account the dynamics of inflation and the economy relative to the forecast, as well as assessing risks from external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them. If the situation develops in accordance with the baseline forecast, the Bank of Russia allows a transition to lowering the key rate in 2019.
The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, at which the issue of the level of the key rate will be considered, is scheduled for June 14, 2019. Time of publication of a press release on the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia - 13:30 Moscow time.
Dynamics of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2013 - 2019
The key rate was declared as the main instrument of monetary policy from September 13, 2013. From this date until the end of 2013, it was 5.50% per annum, inflation at the end of 2013 was 6.45%.
In 2014, the key rate changed 6 times, all in the direction of growth. Russia ended 2014 with the Central Bank key rate of 17.00%. A sharp increase in the key rate to 17.00% per annum occurred on December 16, 2014. The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia noted that this decision was due to the need to limit significantly increased Lately devaluation and inflation risks. Inflation at the end of 2014 was 11.36%.
2015, which began with a rate of 17% per annum, continued with its gradual decrease. During 2015, there were 5 changes in the key rate, and there were 6 rates during the year. The year ended with the key rate at 11.00%. Inflation at the end of 2015 was 12.90%.
During January - June 2016, the Bank of Russia periodically decided to maintain the key rate in force since 2015 at 11.0% per annum, from June 14 - reduced it to 10.50%, and from September 19, 2016, reduced it to - 10. 00%. At the end of 2016, the key rate was kept at 10.00%. Inflation at the end of 2016 was 5.4%.
Since the beginning of 2017, the key rate by the Bank of Russia has been maintained at 10.00%, and from the second quarter it began to be systematically lowered. During 2017, the key rate changed 6 times and decreased from 10.00% to 7.75% by the end of the year. Inflation in Russia in 2017 was 2.5%.
At the beginning of 2018, the key rate of the Bank of Russia was 7.75% per annum, from 02/12/2018 it was reduced to 7.50%., from March 26, 2018 it was reduced to 7.25% per annum, and from 09/17/2018 it was increased to 7 ,50%. From December 17, 2018, the rate was again increased to 7.75% and returned to the rate in force at the beginning of the year. The key rate of 7.75% will be valid until March 22, 2019.
Since the beginning of 2019, the Bank of Russia rate has been 7.75% per annum and will remain in effect until June 14, 2019.
Table of dynamics (changes) of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2013 - 2019
The table shows the dynamics (changes) of the Bank of Russia rate since its introduction (since September 13, 2013):
| Bet validity period | Bank of Russia key rate (%) |
|---|---|
| from December 17, 2018 - to June 14, 2019 (date may be confirmed) | 7,75 |
| from September 17, 2018 - to December 16, 2018 | 7,50 |
| from March 26, 2018 - to September 16, 2018 | 7,25 |
| from February 12, 2018 - to March 25, 2018 | 7,50 |
| from December 18, 2017 - to February 11, 2018 | 7,75 |
| from October 30, 2017 - to December 17, 2017 | 8,25 |
| from September 18, 2017 - to October 29, 2017 | 8,50 |
| from June 19, 2017 - to September 17, 2017 | 9,00 |
| from May 02, 2017 - to June 18, 2017 | 9,25 |
| from March 27, 2017 - to May 1, 2017 | 9,75 |
| from September 19, 2016 - to March 26, 2017 | 10,00 |
| from June 14, 2016 - to September 18, 2016 | 10,50 |
| from August 3, 2015 - to June 13, 2016 | 11,00 |
| from June 16, 2015 - to August 02, 2015 | 11,50 |
| from May 05, 2015 - June 15, 2015 | 12,50 |
| from March 16, 2015 to May 04, 2015 | 14,00 |
| from February 2, 2015 to March 15, 2015 | 15,00 |
| from December 16, 2014 to February 1, 2015 | 17,00 |
| from December 12, 2014 to December 15, 2014 | 10,50 |
| from November 5, 2014 to December 11, 2014 | 9,50 |
| from July 28, 2014 to November 4, 2014 | 8,00 |
| from April 28, 2014 to July 27, 2014 | 7,50 |
| from March 03, 2014 to April 27, 2014 | 7,00 |
| from September 13, 2013 to March 02, 2014 | 5,50 |
Definition and introduction history
The key rate of the Bank of Russia was first officially announced as the main instrument of monetary policy on September 13, 2013. Then, at the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, a new macroeconomic concept was introduced - "Key Bet", and the approach to monetary policy instruments was also changed.
It was on September 13, 2013 that the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation made a historic decision to implement a set of measures to improve the instruments of the monetary policy system as part of the transition to an inflation targeting regime * .
Measures under the new monetary policy of the Bank of Russia include the following:
- introduction key rate by unifying interest rates on operations for providing and absorbing liquidity on an auction basis for a period of 1 week;
- formation of an interest rate corridor Bank of Russia and optimization of the system of instruments for regulating liquidity in the banking sector;
- changing the role of the refinancing rate in the system of instruments of the Bank of Russia.
The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is a rate set by the Bank of Russia in order to have a direct or indirect impact on the level of interest rates prevailing in the country's economy, which occurs through lending by the Bank of Russia to commercial banks. That is, with its help there is an impact on the economy in order to achieve the planned level of inflation.
Regulation of the key rate, as a rule, is the main instrument of monetary policy of the Bank of Russia.
From January 1, 2016, the Bank of Russia adjusted the refinancing rate to the level of the key rate, and before this date the refinancing rate was of secondary importance and was indicated on the Bank of Russia website for reference.
That is, starting from 09/13/2013 and until 01/01/2016 on the Bank of Russia website (in the section of main indicators financial market) a record was made that reflected new approaches to the system of monetary policy instruments. The entry looked like this:
- Key rate, % - 0.00
- For reference: refinancing rate, % - 0.00.
Important: The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia (dated December 11, 2015) established that starting from January 1, 2016:
- the value of the refinancing rate is equal to the value of the key rate of the Bank of Russia determined on the corresponding date and its independent value is not established in the future. The change in the refinancing rate will occur simultaneously with a change in the key rate of the Bank of Russia by the same amount.
- from January 1, 2016, the Government of the Russian Federation will use the key rate of the Bank of Russia in all regulations instead of the refinancing rate (about which the Prime Minister of Russia D. Medvedev signed an order).
So, the current key rate of the Bank of Russia is 7.75% per annum, and its validity period is from December 17, 2018 to June 14, 2019.
* Inflation targeting is a set of measures expressed in the selection of economic goals that must be influenced in order to achieve the planned level of inflation.
The dynamics of the refinancing rate from January 1, 1992 to September 13, 2013 can be viewed