Inflation is the process of increasing prices for services and goods. It occurs due to the rapid increase in the number of paper money in the country. As a result National currency depreciates and the standard of living declines. What are the inflation statistics according to Rosstat now and what changes will be in subsequent years according to official sources - more on that later in the material.
What is inflation?
Inflation— steady increase in prices for services and goods.
The process of increasing price value is the result of the activities of the state apparatus and its solution of economic and social issues. If passed laws in the future will bring positive trends for the development of the country’s economy, which means that the growth of inflation will decrease and replace it deflation- the process of lowering the price level and increasing purchasing power.
There are three types of inflation:
- Creeping or moderate, in which price increases increase gradually. About 3-5% per year. Such economic indicator secured in developed countries. Moderate inflation is a favorable factor for economic situation, as demand increases, opportunities for investment and expansion of production open up;
- Galloping or "Latin" typical for developing countries. Its indicators are: 10-50% price growth per year;
- The critical period for the state comes when the indicators exceed 50%. This is how it is formed hyperinflation. It leads to the development of wars and interstate conflicts. Hyperinflation rates can reach a critical level of 200%.
Inflation in Russia has been calculated based on the Consumer Price Index for goods and services, taking into account graphs and tables only since 1991.
During the Soviet era, the process of money depreciation was not officially calculated. Experts monitor indicators of price reduction and consumer level Federal service state statistics - Rosstat.
Rosstat collects and processes information on the price of goods and services in all regions of the country. The Federal State Statistics Service compares the collected data with indicators for the previous month and year, drawing up a graph or diagram as a percentage.
Inflation rate in Russia in 2017
To determine the inflation rate in 2017, you need to use official expert data, which is presented in the form of graphs, diagrams or tables. It is worth noting that since the beginning of 2017, according to official data from Rosstat, price growth in Russia amounted to 1.86%. Annualized - 3.33%. Schedule of price increases for goods and services for each month of 2017 this moment includes the following data:
The compiled table of money depreciation for 2017, expressed as a percentage, relative to previous period, calculated per one calendar month from the first to the last number. The table is compiled according to official data from Rosstat experts based on the CPI.
The inflation index in Russia in 2017 took 13th position according to world statistics.
According to Rosstat experts, IMF experts and specialists World Bank by the end of this year, inflation will consolidate at around 4%, and the country’s economy will enter a phase of full growth. Consumer and investment demand will grow briskly.
Data for 2018
The planned inflation for 2018 in Russia, according to official data from Rosstat and the Ministry of Economic Development, was reduced to 4%. The assumptions were based on the “basic” price growth scheme for 2018, which was compiled on the basis average cost Urals oil and average annual cost American currency. However, not everyone agreed with this conclusion, as prices for goods and services rose by up to 12%.
Forecast for 2019
According to the latest statements by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, inflation may reach 5.5% in 2019.
The reason will be a slowdown GDP growth due to an increase in VAT. The first quarter will be the most difficult; then the inflation rate is planned to stabilize.
Official data from Rosstat by year
The dynamics of inflation in Russia helps to assess the real economic condition state at the current moment and for subsequent years. Below are the annual inflation data in Russia from 1991 to 2017 (for convenience, the information is presented in the table)
| 1991 |
160,4% |
| 1992 |
258,8% |
| 1993 |
840,0% |
| 1994 |
214,8% |
| 1995 |
131,6% |
| 1996 |
21,8% |
| 1997 |
11,0% |
| 1998 |
84,5% |
| 1999 |
36,6% |
| 2000 |
20,1% |
| 2001 |
18,8% |
| 2002 |
15,06% |
| 2003 |
11,99% |
| 2004 |
11,74% |
| 2005 |
10,91 |
| 2006 |
9,00% |
| 2007 |
11,87% |
| 2008 |
13,28% |
| 2009 |
8,80% |
Major changes in the country's economic situation have worried many citizens who fear rapidly rising prices. Therefore, many are quite rightly interested in what the percentage of inflation is in the current year 2019 in Russia.
General information
The inflation rate is a very important indicator that shows further development the country's economy. It is on these figures that the general increase in prices, as well as the well-being of the people as a whole, depends.
The depreciation of money is a constant phenomenon that needs to be monitored in order to know exactly how prices for certain goods will increase. After all, it depends on inflation how much the solvency of the money you have in your hands will decrease compared to, for example, a year from now.
For example: today in a store you can buy a loaf of bread for 30 rubles, after 6 months the same bread will cost 33 rubles, and after 12 months - 35 rubles. Your money remains the same, but its real purchasing power decreased. IN in this case- by 14%.
What are the forecasts?
According to experts, this figure will gradually decrease. Here is a small dynamics of its change:
- in 2015 it was 13.5%,
- in 2016 – 12.2%,
- in 2017, the maximum level was no more than 10%,
- the downward trend will continue and reached a minimum of 3.5-4.5% by the beginning of 2018.
- in the current 2019 it is planned to approach the 4% mark.
We can already see that these predictions are coming true. If you believe the information from the official website of the Federal State Statistics Service, then at the beginning of March our indicator of interest dropped to a record 4%!
These indicators can be found in Rosstat materials. Also read about currency forecasts for the year in this article. We invite you to study the dynamics of changes in the inflation rate over the past 2 years, where you can clearly see a significant decrease in % compared to previous periods:
Situation today
According to the head Central Bank of Russia, This year the ruble will be stable, the country's economy will begin to gradually recover. This is also noticeable from data on the expenditure of funds from Reserve Fund— they decreased by 5 billion rubles.
In this case, the Ministry of Finance is in solidarity with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which cannot but rejoice. His messages indicate that our country is aimed at reducing inflation as much as possible, which requires overcoming the decline in production and the economy.
Nevertheless , For now, these are only optimistic forecasts, and whether they come true or not, we will only find out closer to the fall. Now the number of registered complaints about too high prices has increased significantly.
In this context, it is very important that the level of wages rises in accordance with the rate of depreciation of money. Otherwise, you get a situation where a person works and receives the same salary for a long time. wages, but every year with this money he can buy less and less.
If we consider pension contributions, then they are precisely tied to the inflation rate. If you or your relatives receive money through the Pension Fund, then you should know that almost every year it increases (indexes) just in order to keep the purchasing price at the same level.
terms inflation rateInflation in Russia
Annual inflation in Russia at the end of 2018 was 4.3%, with the key rate at the end of the year at 7.75%. It should be noted that inflation in Russia increased by 1.7 times compared to 2017, although it remains quite low in the entire history of the country.
The Bank of Russia announced the inflation target for the end of 2019 and 2020 at a meeting of the Board of Directors on February 8, 2019, which was made based on an analysis of the market situation, namely:
According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, under the influence of the VAT increase and the weakening of the ruble that occurred in 2018, annual inflation will temporarily accelerate, reaching a maximum in the first half of 2019, and will amount to 5.0–5.5% at the end of 2019. Quarterly growth rate consumer prices in annual terms will slow down to 4% in the second half of 2019. Annual inflation will return to 4% in the first half of 2020, when the effects of the weakening of the ruble and the VAT increase will be exhausted.
The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia at a meeting on 02/08/2019 decided to maintain the key rate at 7.75% per annum. Annual inflation in January 2019 corresponded to the lower limit of the Bank of Russia’s expectations.
The initial statement regarding the inflation forecast for 2018 - 2020 was made by the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, following the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on September 14, 2018:
...inflationary risks from external conditions have materialized. As a result, the inflation forecast has been raised even taking into account the decisions taken today. We expect inflation in the range of 3.8–4.2% at the end of 2018, 5–5.5% at the end of 2019, with a return to 4% in 2020.
At a press conference that took place following a meeting of the Board of Directors back on September 15, 2017, Bank of Russia Chairman Elvira Nabiullina said she clarified the description of the inflation target:
Inflation has reached 4% and we would like to further clarify the description of the target.
Our target is inflation at or near 4%. Why "close"? Because it can fluctuate up and down around 4%.
Previously, we talked about the horizon for achieving a goal, that is, we determined a point, set a specific period (for example, the end of 2017) when we reach the target value. Now we have this the goal becomes permanent.
The tables below show annual inflation data in Russia for the period from 1991 to 2018. In addition, annual (monthly) inflation data for the current year 2019 will be provided.
For greater clarity, in addition to the inflation rate, the comparative table also includes the refinancing rate of the Bank of Russia and the key rate in effect at the end of the corresponding year.
The dynamics of the inflation rate in Russia for 1991 - 2018 looks like this:
| Years | Annual inflation in Russia* | Refinancing rate, at the end of the year (%) | Key rate at the end of the year (%)** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 4,3 | - ** | 7,75 |
| 2017 | 2,5 | - ** | 7,75 |
| 2016 | 5,4 | - ** | 10,00 |
| 2015 | 12,90 | 8,25 | 11,0 |
| 2014 | 11,36 | 8,25 | 17,0 |
| 2013 | 6,45 | 8,25 | 5,50 |
| 2012 | 6,58 | 8,25 | - |
| 2011 | 6,10 | 8,00 | - |
| 2010 | 8,78 | 7,75 | - |
| 2009 | 8,80 | 8,75 | - |
| 2008 | 13,28 | 13,0 | - |
| 2007 | 11,87 | 10,0 | - |
| 2006 | 9,00 | 11,0 | - |
| 2005 | 10,91 | 12,0 | - |
| 2004 | 11,74 | 13,0 | - |
| 2003 | 11,99 | 16,0 | |
| 2002 | 15,06 | 21,0 | - |
| 2001 | 18,8 | 25,0 | - |
| 2000 | 20,1 | 25,0 | - |
| 1999 | 36,6 | 55,0 | - |
| 1998 | 84,5 | 60,0 | - |
| 1997 | 11,0 | 28,0 | - |
| 1996 | 21,8 | 48,0 | - |
| 1995 | 131,6 | 160 | - |
| 1994 | 214,8 | 180 | - |
| 1993 | 840,0 | 210 | - |
| 1992 | 2508,8 | 80,0 | - |
| 1991 | 160,4 | 25,0 | - |
* Inflation is calculated based on consumer price indices published by the Federal State Statistics Service.
** On December 11, 2015, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia established that starting from January 1, 2016:
- the value of the refinancing rate is equal to the value key rate Bank of Russia, determined as of the corresponding date and its independent meaning is not established in the future. The change in the refinancing rate will occur simultaneously with a change in the key rate of the Bank of Russia by the same amount.
- from January 1, 2016 Government Russian Federation will use the key rate of the Bank of Russia in all regulations instead of the refinancing rate
According to the Statorgans, inflation in annual terms for the month of January 2019 looks like this:
*Dynamics of consumer prices by groups of goods and services (month to corresponding month previous year, %
**Dynamics of consumer prices by groups of goods and services (month to previous month, %)
According to Rosstat:
In February 2019 The consumer price index amounted to 100.4%, since the beginning of the year - 101.5% (in February 2018 - 100.2%, since the beginning of the year - 100.5%).
In February, in 9 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the increase in consumer prices was 0.8% or more. The most noticeable increase in prices was noted in Chukotka Autonomous Okrug– 2.0% as a result of an increase in food prices by 4.0%. In Moscow, the consumer price index for the month amounted to 100.5% (from the beginning of the year - 101.6%), in St. Petersburg - 100.4% (from the beginning of the year - 101.5%).
The largest increase in prices in February was observed for fruits and vegetables. Thus, tomatoes became more expensive by 16.6%, cucumbers - by 14.8%, white cabbage - by 8.4%, onions - by 5.0%. At the same time, prices for oranges decreased by 4.4%, lemons - by 2.3%, etc.
The tables provide data on inflation and the key rate taken from the websites of the Bank of Russia and the Federal State Statistics Service.
At the end of 2017, the Russian economy set a record for inflation – however, a positive one. The figure for the year was 2.5% (previously the government predicted an inflation rate of 4%). Such low inflation is good for the consumer, who is no longer too surprised by rising prices in stores. But this is also a reflection of the crisis in the Russian economy, a sign of weak economic activity. What is inflation in Russia in 2018 - official data from Rosstat reflects this figure today.
Rosstat's accounting of inflation levels
First of all, it is worth starting with this question - whether Rosstat is involved in calculating the level of inflation in Russia in principle. The fact is that this department provides slightly different information - Rosstat calculates the consumer price index. Although this value is one of the most important indicators when calculating inflation in Russia, it is still not the only one. Periodic reports on inflation in Russia are made by another department, namely the Ministry of Economic Development.
In particular, on April 16, 2018, the Ministry of Economic Development presented its forecast for annual inflation based on the results of April.
Consumer price indices as a percentage
The consumer price index in 2018, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, amounted to 100.4% in May, from the beginning of the year - 101.6% (in May 2017 - 100.4%, from the beginning of the year - 101.7%).
| May 2018 To | January-May 2018 To January-May 2017 |
|||||||
| April
2018 |
May
2017 |
|||||||
| Consumer price index | 100,4 | 102,4 | 102,3 | |||||
| including on: | ||||||||
| goods | 100,4 | 101,9 | 101,8 | |||||
| food goods |
99,9 | 100,4 | 100,9 | |||||
| food goods without fruit vegetable products |
100,1 | 100,8 | 100,7 | |||||
| non-food goods |
100,9 | 103,4 | 102,7 | |||||
| services | 100,4 | 104,0 | 103,9 | |||||
| Base index consumer prices |
100,2 | 102,0 | 101,9 | |||||
In May, in 23 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the increase in consumer prices was 0.5% or more, of which in Novosibirsk region- 0.9% as a result of an increase in prices for non-food products by 1.3% and in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug - 0.8% as a result of an increase in prices for non-food products and services by 1.9% and 1.0%, respectively.
In Moscow and St. Petersburg, the consumer price index for the month amounted to 100.4% (from the beginning of the year - 101.8% and 102.0%, respectively).
The decline in prices for fruits and vegetables had a significant impact on the dynamics of consumer prices for food products. Thus, cucumbers fell in price by 16.9%, bananas - by 12.4%, tomatoes - by 10.5%, garlic - by 4.1%, grapes - by 2.2%, oranges - by 1.4%. At the same time, lemons became more expensive by 19.9%, fresh white cabbage - by 16.6%, beets - by 11.7%, carrots - by 7.3%, onions - by 4.7%, apples – by 2.9%.
The consumer price index for 2018, according to Rosstat, recorded a decrease in prices for most of the observed types of pasta and cereal products. Thus, buckwheat became cheaper by 2.9%, semolina - by 0.6%, peas and beans - by 0.5%, Hercules oatmeal - by 0.4%. At the same time, millet prices increased by 2.0%.
Prices for live and chilled fish, frozen squid, chilled and frozen cut salmon fish increased by 1.0-1.3%, pork, chilled and frozen chicken, black long tea, frozen fish fillets, bakery products made from premium flour piece - by 0.6-0.8%
What annual inflation is expected in 2018
Annual inflation is the inflation rate over the past 12 months. That is, not for calendar year as such, but for the past 365 days. Annual inflation at the end of April 2018 will reflect how much the ruble depreciated between May 1, 2017 and April 30, 2018.
The Ministry of Economic Development's forecast in this regard is all the more interesting because at the beginning of April 2018, the Russian national currency experienced a serious shake-up, when the dollar exchange rate soared from less than 58 rubles to 64 rubles (and on the stock exchange - even up to 65 rubles per dollar). It is clear that the rise in the dollar exchange rate and the decline in the value of the ruble are a serious reason for the rise in inflation in Russia.
However, the Ministry of Economic Development is not inclined to exaggerate the significance of what happened with the ruble last week. According to the forecast presented by the ministry’s economists, the annual inflation rate in April 2018 will be 2.3-2.6 percent.
As noted by the Ministry of Economic Development, the fall of the ruble in April will have an impact on inflation in Russia only if its effect lasts long enough. At the moment, we see that the dollar and euro rates are declining, the ruble is trying to find a new equilibrium. The only question is what kind of balance this will turn out to be. If the Russian currency returns to its previous values, this will not affect inflation at all.
Inflation in Russia since the beginning of 2018 and forecast for the whole year
If we look at the inflation statistics for the first three months current year, then the data is:
- in March inflation was 0.29%,
- since the beginning of the year - 0.81%.
The inflation target set by the Central Bank of Russia for 2018 is 4%.
At the moment, thanks to the regulation of the economy using the key rate, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is successfully achieving this goal. Moreover, at the end of March, when the Board of Directors of the Central Bank once again revised the rate, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, especially noted that so far inflation in the country is growing more slowly than planned. Perhaps the Bank of Russia will even resort to special measures so that inflation accelerates a little and reaches the target 4% per annum.
Based on materials from bankiclub.ru
Moscow. January 10. website - Inflation in the Russian Federation in December 2017 amounted to 0.4% after 0.2% in November and October, Rosstat reported final data on consumer price dynamics on Wednesday. Thus, the department confirmed the preliminary assessment distributed at the end of December.
Accordingly, the inflation estimate for the entire year remained unchanged - 2.5%, which was the minimum for the entire year. recent history Russia.
Inflation in December 2017 was expected by analysts and corresponded to the lower limit of the expectations of the Ministry of Economic Development. The consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Interfax at the end of December was 0.5%; the Ministry of Economic Development expected a price increase of 0.4-0.5%.
The record low inflation is largely due to moderately severe monetary policy Central Bank, continuation of the recession real income population, which has been declining for the fourth year in a row, and a good harvest. Over the 11 months of 2017, household incomes in real terms decreased by 1.4%. In 2016, income fell by 5.8% in real terms, in 2015 there was a drop of 3.2%, and in 2014 the decrease was 0.7%.
In 2016, inflation in Russia was 5.4% (the previous minimum on record), in 2015 - 12.9%, in 2014 - 11.4%, in 2013 - 6.5%, in 2012 - 6.6%, in 2011 - 6.1%.
According to Rosstat, food prices rose by 0.6% in December 2017, and in 2017 as a whole - by 1.1% (4.6% in 2016). The increase in prices for non-food products in December was 0.3%, and for the year 2.8% (6.5% in 2016). Services in December rose in price by an average of 0.3%, and in 2017 - by 4.4% (4.9% in 2016).
Core consumer price index excluding price changes individual products, influenced by factors that are administrative and seasonal in nature, in December 2017 amounted to 100.2% (in December 2016 - 100.3%), in annual terms - 102.1% (106.0%).
Prices for fruits and vegetables jumped by 4.7% in December, and in 2017 as a whole increased by 1.2%. In December, prices for cucumbers and tomatoes increased significantly - by 24.6% and 20.8%, respectively, grapes - by 7.7%, bananas - by 4.0%. At the same time, oranges became cheaper by 5.7%, garlic, beets and nuts - by 0.3-1.7%.
Fish in December rose in price by 0.7% (over the year by 3.8%), butter - also by 0.7% (by 9.6% for the year), milk - by 0.5% (by 5 .2%), bread - by 0.2% (by 2.7%)
At the same time, granulated sugar became cheaper in December by 1.9% (over the year it fell in price by 23.7%), cereals - by 1.2% (by 13%), sunflower oil - by 0.3% (by 8. 6%), meat and poultry - by 0.1% (by 2.3%).
The cost of a conditional (minimum) set of food products per month on average in Russia at the end of December 2017 amounted to 3 thousand 749.6 rubles and compared to the previous month increased by 0.8% (over the year as a whole - by 1. 6%).
In 2018, according to economists, the Central Bank will be able to keep inflation closer to the target of 4%, and price growth will be 3.9% (according to the Interfax consensus forecast prepared at the end of December).
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation believes that after the exhaustion of temporary factors (which the regulator included the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate and lower prices for fruits and vegetables), inflation will return to 4% in 2018.
“It is expected that at the end of 2017, inflation will remain close to the November level (2.5% - IF). As the effect of temporary factors on the food supply side is exhausted, conditions will form for inflation to approach 4% by the end of 2018.” , the Bank of Russia wrote in its December commentary on inflation.
The head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, stated in November that the transition from moderately tough to neutral monetary policy it will take a year or two.