1. Forecast of social economic development Russian Federation, subject of the Russian Federation, municipality is developed for a period of at least three years.

(see text in the previous edition)

2. The forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, a subject of the Russian Federation, a municipal entity is developed annually in the manner established, respectively, by the Government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body state power of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, local administration.

Forecast of socio-economic development of the city, rural settlement(intra-city district) may be developed by the local administration of a municipal district (city district with intra-city division) in accordance with an agreement between the local administration of an urban, rural settlement (intra-city district) and the local administration of the municipal district (city district with intra-city division), except for the case established of this Code.

(see text in the previous edition)

3. The forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, a subject of the Russian Federation, a municipality is approved accordingly by the Government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body of state power of the subject of the Russian Federation, the local administration simultaneously with the adoption of a decision to submit the draft budget to the legislative (representative) body.

4. Forecast of socio-economic development for the next fiscal year and the planning period is developed by clarifying the parameters of the planning period and adding parameters of the second year of the planning period.

IN explanatory note The socio-economic development forecast includes a justification for the forecast parameters, including their comparison with previously approved parameters, indicating the reasons and factors for the predicted changes.

5. A change in the forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, or a municipal entity during the preparation or consideration of a draft budget entails a change in the main characteristics of the draft budget.

6. Development of a forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, a municipal district, a city district, an urban district with an intracity division, an urban, rural settlement, an intracity district is carried out by the appropriately authorized Government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body of state power of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, local administration, federal executive body, executive body of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, body ( official) local administration.

(see text in the previous edition)

Simultaneously with the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, the authorized representative of the Government of the Russian Federation federal body The executive branch develops the main directions of customs tariff regulation.

7. For the purpose of formation budget forecast of the Russian Federation, a subject of the Russian Federation, a municipal entity for a long-term period in accordance with Article 170.1 of this Code, a forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, a subject of the Russian Federation, a municipal entity for a long-term period is developed in the manner established accordingly by the Government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body of the state authorities of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, local administration.

A long-term forecast for the socio-economic development of an urban or rural settlement (intra-urban district) can be developed by the local administration of a municipal district (urban district with intra-urban division) in accordance with an agreement between the local administration of an urban, rural settlement (intra-urban district) and the local administration of the municipal district ( urban district with intra-city division), except for the case established by the second paragraph of paragraph 1 of Article 154 of this Code.

(see text in the previous edition)

The forecast of socio-economic development for 2016 - 2018 characterizes the development Russian economy in the context of ongoing geopolitical instability, the continued application of economic sanctions to Russia by the EU and the United States throughout the entire forecast period and retaliatory counter-sanctions. Restricting access to global capital markets for Russian companies and enough high level net private sector capital outflow associated with repayment external debt, have a negative impact on the recovery of investment activity.

The forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian economy was developed on an option basis, consisting of a basic, target and conservative option.

In 2017, the economic situation will stabilize somewhat. In 2018, there will be a transition to positive dynamics ( GDP growth at the level of 2.3%), but this will not allow a return to the pre-crisis level.

The forecast of socio-economic development for 2016 - 2018 characterizes the development of the Russian economy in the context of ongoing geopolitical instability, the continued application of economic sanctions to Russia by the EU and the USA and counter-sanctions throughout the entire forecast period. Restricted access to global capital markets for Russian companies and a fairly high level of net capital outflow from the private sector associated with the repayment of external debt have a negative impact on the recovery of investment activity.

The forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian economy was developed on an option basis, consisting of a basic, target and conservative option.

The developed options are based on a single hypothesis of global economic growth with an average annual rate in 2016 - 2018 at the level of 3.4 - 3.6 percent.

The basic option characterizes the main macroeconomic parameters of economic development in the conditions of maintaining conservative trends of change external factors and conservative budget policy, including regarding the social obligations of the state.

The option is based on market expectations for the energy market, reflected in the consensus forecast of world agencies, and was developed based on the average annual price of Urals oil in 2016 of 50 US dollars per barrel, in 2017 - 52 US dollars per barrel, in 2018 - US$55 per barrel. In 2016, the cost of gas exported to countries is expected to decrease far abroad compared to the level of 2015, including due to increased competition in European gas markets.

IN social sphere the basic option provides for an increase in the standard of living of the population based on a moderate increase in the social obligations of the state and business. Consumer demand will, on the one hand, be limited by the restrained dynamics of household incomes, and on the other hand, will be supported by a gradual revival of consumer lending.

GDP growth in 2016 is projected at 0.7%; in the future, as investment and consumer demand recovers, economic growth rates will increase to 1.9% in 2017 and 2.4% in 2018.

The target option was developed in accordance with the instructions of the President of the Russian Federation and assumes that the Russian economy will enter a trajectory of sustainable growth at rates not lower than the world average, reducing inflation to 4% and increasing labor productivity by at least 5% while simultaneously ensuring macroeconomic balance.

The target scenario reflects the transition to a new model economic growth. Achieving target parameters will require significant structural changes in the consumables federal budget, involving optimization and increased efficiency budget expenditures, radical revision government programs of the Russian Federation in order to comply with the guidelines and indicators of the target state of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation.

The implementation of the main measures provided for by the target development scenario will ensure an increase in the rate of economic growth by 1.5 - 2 percentage points compared to the base scenario in 2017 - 2018 and move to a sustainable dynamics of economic growth by 2020 with an average rate of 4. 5% per year, while ensuring an increase in labor productivity of at least 5% per year and achieving a target inflation rate of no higher than 4 percent. The main contribution to the increase in economic growth rates in 2016 - 2020 will be made by the following factors:

Increased investment in production expansion and production infrastructure;

Increased investment in increasing the export of non-commodity goods and stimulating the export of high-tech products;

Increased total factor productivity as a result of increased investment in innovative sectors of the economy;

Implementation of measures to save resources and reduce costs, including those related to labor costs and tariffs of natural monopolies;

Development of small businesses, improvement of conditions for entrepreneurial activity and other factors.

The conservative version of the forecast considers the development of the Russian economy in conditions of lower price dynamics for commodities, primarily for oil and natural gas. It is expected that in 2016 - 2018. the average annual price of Urals oil decreases to 40 US dollars per barrel and stabilizes at this level throughout the forecast period.

Under these conditions, against the backdrop of the inertial trends that have developed over the past two years, in 2016 the main macroeconomic indicators will have sharply negative dynamics: the decline in GDP could be up to 1%, the investment recession will continue to deepen, the negative dynamics in industry and retail trade will intensify, and there will be a further decline in living standards population. To a lesser extent, the decline will affect oil and gas production, as well as agricultural production and food production, and to the greatest extent - the entire investment complex and the service sector. This scenario is characterized by an increased inflationary background: in 2016, inflation could reach 8 - 9 percent.

In 2017, the economic situation will stabilize somewhat. In 2018, there will be a transition to positive dynamics (GDP growth at 2.3%), but this will not allow a return to the pre-crisis level.

The basic version was used to develop the parameters of the federal budget for 2016.

Main indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2015 - 2018

Main indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2015 - 2018

Urals oil prices (world), USD/barrel.

Real available income of the population,%

Options for forecasting the country's socio-economic development.

Functions of the Ministry of Economic Development in developing the forecast.

Functions of executive authorities.

An updated forecast of the country's socio-economic development for the medium term.

Options for forecasting the country's socio-economic development.

The forecast is developed in several versions and is formed as a whole for the Russian Federation, for the constituent entities of Russia, and for types of economic activity.

The basic version of the forecast characterizes the main trends and parameters of economic development in the context of predicted changes in external and internal factors while maintaining the main trends in changes in the efficiency of resource use.

The target version of the forecast characterizes the parameters of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, the achievement of which ensures the implementation of the goals of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and the priorities of the Government's socio-economic policy based on the President's Address to the Federal Assembly, the Concept of long-term socio-economic development and the Main Directions of the Government's activities.

By decision of the Government Commission on Budget Projects for the next financial year and planning period, additional forecast options may be developed that reflect changes in the external and internal conditions of the development of the Russian Federation.

The Federal State Statistics Service, within a week after the Government approves the scenario conditions and main parameters of the forecast, ensures that the federal executive authorities and executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are provided with the necessary statistical information developed in accordance with the federal statistical work plan for the preparation of the forecast.

2. Functions of the Ministry of Economic Development in developing the forecast.

The Ministry of Economic Development, within a month after the Government of the Russian Federation approves the scenario conditions and main parameters of the forecast, includes in the forecast the following indicators and characteristics:

a) assessment of the achieved level of socio-economic development;

b) characteristics of the conditions of socio-economic development in the next financial year and planning period, including the main indicators of demographic and scientific and technical development, the state of the environment and natural resources;

c) the main indicators of the development of the world economy for the next financial year and planning period, including the forecast of world prices for individual raw materials;

d) assessment of factors and limitations of socio-economic development for the next financial year and planning period;

e) a list of tasks and target indicators that ensure the implementation of the target version of the forecast corresponding to the target values ​​of the indicators defined in the Main Directions of Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation;

f) main development indicators for certain types of economic activity, indicators for the development of transport and energy infrastructure for the next financial year and planning period;

g) the main directions of territorial development for the next financial year and planning period;

h) the balance of institutional sectors of the economy for the next financial year and planning period, reflecting the conditions for the financial balance of the parameters of development of the economy and economic sectors taken into account when developing the forecast, as well as indicators of the development of institutional sectors of the economy, taking into account the influence of measures public policy in the field of economic development;

i) other indicators according to the list agreed with the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.