Concept economic analysis

Economic analysis is a scientific way of understanding the essence of economic phenomena and processes, based on dividing them into their component parts and studying them in all their diversity of connections and dependencies.

Distinguish macroeconomic analysis, which studies economic phenomena and processes at the global and national economy and its individual industries, and microeconomic analysis, studying these processes and phenomena at the level of individual business entities. The latter type received the name analysis in our country economic activity(AHD).

Scientists associate the emergence of economic analysis as a means of understanding the essence of economic phenomena and processes directly with the emergence and development of accounting and balance sheets. However, it received its theoretical and practical development in the second half of the 19th century. The separation of ACD into a special branch of knowledge occurred somewhat later - in the first half of the 20th century.

The formation of ACD is determined by general objective requirements and conditions that are characteristic of the emergence of any new branch of knowledge:

firstly, the practical need for a comprehensive and systemic analysis in connection with the development of productive forces, improvement of production relations, and expansion of the scale of production. Intuitive analysis, approximate calculations, and estimates in memory, which were used in artisanal and semi-artisanal enterprises, have become insufficient in the conditions of large-scale production. Without an integrated, comprehensive ADM, it is impossible to manage complex economic processes and make optimal decisions.

Thus, ACD is an important element in the production management system, an effective means of identifying on-farm reserves, and the basis for the development of scientifically based plans and management decisions.

Fig.2. Control functions

2.Main tasks of AHD business entity:

1. Studying the nature of the operation of economic laws, establishing patterns and trends in economic phenomena and processes in the specific conditions of an enterprise.

2. Scientific substantiation of current and long-term plans: without a deep economic analysis of the enterprise’s performance over the past 5-10 years, without substantiated forecasts for the future, without studying the patterns of development of the enterprise’s economy, without identifying shortcomings and errors, it is impossible to develop a scientifically based plan or choose the optimal management decision. .

3. Monitoring the implementation of plans and management decisions, and the economical use of resources. ACD should be carried out not only for the purpose of ascertaining facts and assessing the results achieved, but also with the aim of identifying shortcomings, errors and operational impact on economic processes. It is for this reason that it is necessary to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of analysis.

4. Studying the influence of objective and subjective, internal and external factors on the results of economic activities.

5. Search for reserves for increasing the efficiency of the enterprise based on the study of best practices and achievements of science and practice.

6. Assessing the performance of an enterprise based on the achieved level of economic development, implementation of plans and dynamics of indicators, use of existing opportunities and diagnostics of its position in the market of products and services.

7. Assessing the degree of financial and operational risks and developing internal mechanisms for managing them in order to strengthen the market position of the enterprise and increase business profitability.

Consequently, ACD as a science is a system of special knowledge related to the study of economic development trends, scientific justification of plans, management decisions, monitoring their implementation, assessment of achieved results, search, measurement and justification of the value of economic reserves for increasing production efficiency and the development of recommendations for them use.

3. Business activities and processes that take place in it are the object of study of many sciences - economic theory, macro- and microeconomics, management, organization and planning of production and financial activities, statistics, accounting, economic analysis, etc.

Economics studies the impact of general, particular and specific laws on development economic processes in the specific conditions of an industry or an individual enterprise; statistics - quantitative aspects of mass economic phenomena and processes that occur in economic activity; accounting - the circulation of capital in the process of economic activity.

ECONOMIC THEORY

GASANOV GL., GASANOV T.A.

CAUSE-AND-EFFECT RELATIONSHIP IN THE TEACHING OF A. MARSHALL

Annotation. The article examines cause-and-effect relationships in economic processes through the mechanism of new emerging and isolated categories - demand, supply of market equilibrium, as well as constructing graphs for these categories, which were proposed by Marshall. The impact of consumption statistics has a great impact on the socio-economic well-being of society.

Key words: demand, supply, market equilibrium, social welfare, graphs, dialectics of interaction of interests.

GASANOV G.A. , GASANOV T.A.

CAUSAL-CONSEQUENTIAL CONNECTIONS IN STUDYING A.MARSHALL

Abstract. The article studies causal-consequential connections in economic processes through the mechanism of newly formed and separated categories of demand, supply of market equilibrium, as well as of building graphs based on stated categories that were suggested by Marshall. Consumption statistics impacts the socio-economic welfare of the society a lot.

Keywords: demand, supply, market equilibrium, public welfare, graphs, dialectics of interest interaction.

The scientific novelty of A. Marshall's research, as the founder of the Cambridge school of marginalism, lies in the fact that he proposed to analyze and study economic processes and phenomena through the prism of developed new emerging economic categories- demand, supply, market equilibrium, as well as through the construction of graphs and other mathematical methods and models.

From a philosophical point of view, the categories of "demand" and "supply" are a consequence of deeper reasons that shape these economic categories. Therefore, the analysis should begin with the reasons that form the categories “demand” and “supply”, since they reveal more deeply the content and internal structure of these categories.

A. Marshall points out these features of the philosophical approach and scientific novelty in the analysis of economic categories: “...Political economy undertakes to study the consequences that will be the result of the action of certain causes, the action of the reasons under consideration appears in isolation, and it will lead to certain consequences, but only in the event that the hypothesis is previously accepted that there is no other reason. will not be taken into account. however. source of great difficulties in economic science serves. the time required for causes to lead to their effects."

Let's consider the category “demand”, which is a consequence of important reasons. These reasons are objective in nature and are formed as the need to satisfy vital human needs: food, housing, clothing, entertainment for the consumer. The next group of causes that give rise to an effect can be both objective and subjective: the development of new equipment and technologies, fashion, hobbies, institutional features, etc.

In addition, demand is directly related to the profit and income of any entrepreneur. Here is how A. Marshall points out this: “... Demand is based on the expectation of profits. ...

These profits always depend on speculative risk and other reasons... The final regulator of all demand is therefore consumer demand.”

Thus, demand is twofold - demand for basic necessities (consumer goods) and demand for means of production as a source of profit, income, or, as A. Marshall notes, “consumer demand”.

So, demand can be formed only after deep and important reasons that form them: accumulating, these reasons objectively form the basis of demand and manifest themselves in a full-scale effect, which is demand. This demand is analyzed by A. Marshall in the full and literal sense of this concept, obviously as a cause, but not a consequence of the objective reasons that give rise to them. In addition, this demand can be analyzed as a function of trading capital and the receipt, accordingly, of trading profits, according to the metamorphosis M-T-D proposed by K. Marx, which then became the universal formula of capital.

Now let's analyze the category “sentence”. Supply is, first of all, the result of production costs, which are the main reason for the formation of supply. Therefore, this category must begin to be analyzed with advance production costs, since these costs for the production of goods create the foundation of the manufacturer for any sphere of the economy (objective reason).

Then there are other reasons that form the sentence, such as development and use scientific developments and new technologies (NTP), the influence and use of NTP on supply is quite ambiguous. So, if, as a result of the use of new technologies, the number of manufactured goods increases, while the volume of sales of these goods increases while the price decreases, then the producers’ rate of profit (P) decreases, but the amount of profit increases.

It is also necessary to indicate such a reason in the formation of the proposal as meeting the needs of people according to the principle of the “invisible hand” of A. Smith, i.e. producers satisfy the social needs of people not because they want to do a good deed for the buyer, but in order to satisfy their selfish interests - to get benefits, but at the same time they are forced to hide their true, selfish goals under the guise of caring and meeting the needs of the buyer.

And finally, the most important and main target function of the manufacturer, which forms the proposal, as an important result stimulating the above reasons, is obtaining maximum profit at minimum costs.

This reason - obtaining maximum profit, super-high profit, is like the sun around which all other reasons revolve, forming the supply itself and already manifesting themselves as a consequence of these reasons, in the form of an ascending curve S. If, for example, production costs are somehow limited by the capabilities of the manufacturer and are tied to the factors of production - labor, land, capital, then obtaining maximum profit is not limited by anything.

Thus, the movement of the producer is also carried out in one direction, the direction of benefit for the producer himself, no matter how he disguises his interests; and this interest is diametrically opposed to the interest of the consumer.

Each reason is built into the system of supply and demand, but depending on the importance of these reasons, it forms a curved line of demand or supply. The direction of this line can be different and uncertain, but gradually, under the influence of other reasons, it begins to be built in the form of a curved line, because the specified reason can strengthen or weaken depending on its significance on demand or supply as a whole. This line runs parallel to the line of supply and demand, in the classical sense according to A. Marshall, and appears as a consequence of the curve of active causes.

Now we move on to the study of the most complex and most interesting category - market equilibrium. Supply and demand are in dialectical unity. Without demand there is no consumption, i.e. there is no supply; and supply becomes meaningless in the absence of demand. The dialectic of the interaction between supply and demand lies in the fact that as a result of this conflict of interests they must intersect at a certain point, it does not matter at which point; and such an assumption is a scientific abstraction. At the same time, other market mechanisms - price, competition - will indicate the movement of supply and demand in such a direction that they intersect at a certain level, at the point

equilibrium with equilibrium quantity and, accordingly, the formation of equilibrium price; in such a way that a stable equilibrium price would satisfy both consumers and sellers in conditions of competition and diametrically opposed interests.

For the objectivity of the analysis, it is necessary to study the movement of the equilibrium point with important reasons for both demand and supply, and then with numerous reasons in their totality and show the influence on the change in the equilibrium point, as well as its movement under the influence of these reasons.

As is known, market equilibrium represents the intersection of demand and supply curves, but the causes of demand are fundamentally different from the causes of supply, i.e., the different directions of these curves.

When considering market equilibrium, several options should be considered on both the demand and supply sides. In determining the equilibrium point and market equilibrium in general, based on various reasons for both demand and supply, it is necessary to highlight any important reason and show its influence on the change in the equilibrium point, as well as its movement under the influence of these reasons.

The market equilibrium point can be located anywhere in the graphical plot, depending on what the main reason generates the supply - obtaining maximum profit; either the reason for the “invisible hand” of A. Smith or the reduction of production costs with a constant demand curve (Fig. 1).

Let us consider the movement of the curve, and therefore the equilibrium point, on the supply side, but on the condition that the demand curve has a constantly operating cause and is motionless.

Rice. 1. Market equilibrium with various reasons for supply, where ^ R1, R2 are points of market equilibrium for various reasons for supply:

The main reason for the proposal is to obtain maximum profit;

The main reason for the proposal is the principle of the “invisible hand” of A. Smith;

The main reason for the proposal is to minimize production costs

If the main reason for supply is to maximize profit, then the equilibrium point will be aimed at obtaining maximum profit with minimum costs and increasing output, and this equilibrium point will be located slightly higher than other reasons for supply.

And if important reason proposal will be the “invisible hand” of A. Smith, then the equilibrium point will be located slightly lower - down to the right compared to the reason stated above. This cause of supply aims to satisfy social needs while achieving stable average and above-average profits (though secretly they all expect to achieve maximum profits). The equilibrium point will move evenly away from the other two causes of supply, located between them, as if choosing the gap between two curved lines.

Thus, the equilibrium point depends on the cause that dominates the totality of supply-side causes when they intersect with the demand curve. Without such a cause-and-effect relationship, it is impossible to correctly understand market equilibrium and equilibrium prices.

With production cost cutting as the main cause of supply, the equilibrium point R2 will move down to the right; at the same time (minimization of production costs) will contribute to an increase in the mass of profit (while reducing the rate of profit) due to an increase in the volume of output, although the market equilibrium point will be located below other reasons.

The same result can be obtained on the graph if the main reason for the proposal is the prestige of the firm or company, i.e. making a profit is not the only reason entrepreneurial activity and business in modern conditions.

Now let's move on to analyzing the curve and moving the equilibrium point on the demand side, provided that the supply curve can have a permanent cause - obtaining maximum profit and be in a static position.

Consideration of market equilibrium from the side of the main causes of demand shows that opposing interests will operate here - the satisfaction of vital human needs, therefore the equilibrium point will be as high as possible compared to all other reasons. When demand is driven by the desire to gain benefit or profit, then this reason will approach the curve of vital human needs as the natural desire of the entrepreneur to complete his business and subsequently carry out expanded reproduction based on the profit received.

If an important reason for demand is fashion, prestige, then the equilibrium point or equilibrium price may move down to the left, because a person’s interests in the pursuit of fashion take a back seat compared to vital reasons, and also if an important reason for demand is seasonality in consumption and other reasons, then the equilibrium point can continue to move down to the left, as can be seen in Fig. 2.

Rice. 2. Market equilibrium with various main reasons for demand, where E, E1, E2 are points of market equilibrium for various reasons for demand: - the main reason for demand is the need to satisfy vital human needs;

The main reason for demand is the expectation of profit;

The main reason for demand is fashion, hobby, etc.

For the objectivity of the analysis, it is necessary to consider market equilibrium with numerous causes of supply and demand, which can act simultaneously and independently of each other. (see Fig. 3) These reasons can act in different directions, simultaneously, moving from one reason to another or intertwining with each other, forming a whole system of factors that determine equilibrium points.

Rice. 3. Market equilibrium with various reasons for supply and demand, where R, R1, R2, are points of market equilibrium for various reasons for supply and demand as a result

synchronous impact of waning causes: 1,2,3,4,5,6 - possible points of market equilibrium for the specified causes of supply and demand, which act in different directions depending on the importance of the causes of supply and demand

In Fig. Figure 3 shows three equilibrium points - R, R1; R2, synchronous impact for reasons of supply and demand and a gradual decrease of these reasons, which go down perpendicularly, approaching the x-axis. Equilibrium points 1,2,3,4,5,6, - for reasons of supply and demand, act in different directions and can move left - right - down, depending on the importance of the reasons for supply and demand.

Thus, numerous causes of supply and demand cause equilibrium points to migrate in different directions, depending on the importance of the causes in question, numerous equilibrium points are determined.

Consequently, the cause-and-effect relationships of supply and demand increase the number of options for market equilibrium, showing a complex model of economic development and pushing the boundaries of research.

Literature

1. Marshall, A. Principles of economic science. T. I. - M.: “Progress”, 1993.

2. Marshall, A. Principles of economic science. T. II. - M.: “Progress”, 1993.

3. Marshall, A. - Principles of economic science. T.III. - M.: “Progress”, 1993.

4. Tsypin, I. S. Economic reforms and modernization of the Russian economy // Regional problems of economic transformation. 2012. No. 1 (31). pp. 14-24.

4. Tsypin, I. Economic reform and modernization of the Russian economy // Regional problems of transformation of the economy. 2012. No. 1 (31). S. 14-24.

SECTION I. INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMIC THEORY.

CHAPTER I. GENERAL ECONOMIC CATEGORIES.

1.1 Subject of economic theory. Economic theory is a modern version of political economy. Methods of economic theory. Economic theory and economic policy.

In 1870 N.H. Bunge in his book “Foundations of Political Economy” wrote: political Economy does not exist among those peoples who are at a low level of human development. More recently, departments of Russian universities teaching economics were called departments of political economy. But in connection with the reform of the economy in our country, most departments abandoned this name and began to be called departments of economic theory.

In the West and the American continent they study “Economics” (A. Marshall); “Economics” (P. Samuelson, S. Fisher, R. Dornbusch, R. Shmalenzi); “Political Economy” (R. Barr France, A. Pesenti Italy).

The term “Political Economy” was replaced by the term “economics” by the English economist A. Marshall in 1902, when he began teaching this course. His main work is called “Principles of Economics”.

The appearance of the term “economics” is explained by three circumstances: firstly, it was a reaction to Marxism, which reigned in the second half of the 19th and early 20th centuries. in political economy; secondly, A. Marshall, who welcomed the idea of ​​free competition and the market, limited the role of the state in market economy; thirdly, this term is a reflection of the British and American penchant for cuts.

The name “political economy” was first introduced into economics by Antoine de Montchretien in his book “Treatise of Political Economy” in 1615.

The term “political economy” itself consists of a combination of three ancient Greek words: “politeia”; “oikos”, “nomos”. “ Politeia ” – government structure; “oikos ” – house, household; “ nomos ” – doctrine, rule, law.

Consequently, “political economy” is literally translated as the science of economic laws within the state.

There are differences in the levels of research between political economy and economics. These differences are presented in Fig. 1.

Fig.1

In recent decades, interest in institutional theory in general and its neo-institutional direction in particular has been steadily growing in Russia. This direction is presented in the works of E. de Soto, D. North, V. Radaev, R. Nureyev, Kapelyushnikov and others.

The subject of any science is determined by a system of categories and laws that this science studies and develops.

What does economic theory study?

It is considered an elementary truth that the basis of life of any human society is production of material goods and services, those. food, shelter, clothing, education, etc. - these are the problems around which life is built and organized.

In the course of social reproduction (repetition of production, distribution, exchange and consumption), people enter into certain relationships with each other: some organize production, others directly produce material goods and services, and others bring the finished product to the consumer. In other words, production is organized in a certain way.

The organization of production itself depends on the specific form of ownership of the factors and results of production.

The relationships that arise between people in the process of production, distribution, exchange and consumption are called production (economic) relationships. But it's not just employee relations. Organizational and economic relations develop between them.

Production (economic) relations also develop between workers and owners of factors and results of production (state, collective of owners), individuals, i.e. economic relations permeate the entire society.

Economic relations have a complex structure.

First level economic relations – socio-economic relationship or property relations . They characterize the connections between members of society, teams and social groups on the assignment of factors and results of production. Moreover, the appropriation of production factors predetermines the main content and direction of all relations regarding the production, distribution, exchange and consumption of material goods and services.

Second level of relationship - organizational and economic relations. They arise because any Team work people require its organization. Organizational and economic relations include division of labor and production and their cooperation ; organization economic activity in certain forms ; economic management (spontaneous market, state planning).

Economic relations manifest themselves as economic interests , which represent the objective direction of people’s economic activity, determined by their place in the system social production.

All economic relations in their totality form economic system , which is determined by the level of development productive forces (means of labor, objects of labor, people with knowledge and production experience).

The structure of economic relations can be represented in the form of the following diagram (Fig. 2)

Form of manifestation of economic relations

Property relations (socio-economic relations) are inherent in one historical era (for example, primitive communal, slaveholding, feudal), and therefore are historically transient nature.

Organizational and economic relations are, in essence, common elements of the economy of all systems . For example, in different economic systems such organized forms as factories, combines, enterprises, service industries, specialized stores, etc. are successfully used, as well as general achievements scientific organization labor and management.

An in-depth study of economic relations leads to the discovery of economic laws.

Economic laws reflect significant, constantly recurring, cause-and-effect relationships between economic processes.

Economic laws have an objective character that does not depend on the will and consciousness of people.

The study of economic laws is also included in the subject of general economic theory.

Thus, economic theory (political economy) studies economic relations at two levels: socio-economic (property relations), organizational and economic relations and economic laws, managing the production, distribution, exchange and consumption of material goods and services.

The main functions of economic theory are: cognitive, prognostic and practical.

Cognitive consists in studying the essence of economic phenomena and processes and the forms of their manifestations.

Prognostic is to develop the scientific basis for predicting prospects scientific and technological progress, socio-economic development of the country.

Practical lies in the scientific substantiation of the state’s economic policy.

In economics, a certain number of methods are used: universal (philosophical, for example, dialectical and metaphysical); general scientific (historical, logical, mathematical); specific.

When it is necessary to analyze some element of the system separately or to find out the internal structure of economic relations, a metaphysical approach is used.

To identify cause-and-effect relationships, the essence of economic processes, the dialectical method is used.

Dialectics – This is the doctrine of the most general laws of the origin and development of all phenomena of nature and society. The central place in this teaching is given to contradiction as internal source development. The dialectical method reflects not only contradictions, but also the unity of opposites. This makes it possible in practice to combine disparate aspects of phenomena into a whole.

Play an important role in economic research historical And logical methods.

Economic theory uses a method scientific abstraction and descriptive method . If it is necessary to determine constant, typical, character traits, an abstract method is used. Using the abstraction method, scientific categories are formulated that express the essential aspects of the phenomena under study. On their basis, economic models are built (model of perfect competition, model of pure monopoly). In the process of economic analysis, the formulation occurs economic laws, categories reflecting the most significant, stable internal connections of the object under study. In order for economic phenomena to receive a holistic description, a descriptive method is necessary.

An important role in the construction economic models functional analysis plays.

A function is a variable that depends on other variables. IN economic life all phenomena and processes are organically connected with each other. Moreover, if one variable value depends, due to certain patterns, on another variable value, we are talking about a functional dependence between these phenomena. For example, if the price rises, then other equal conditions the quantity demanded for a given product decreases. Therefore, we can talk about a functional relationship between price and demand.

IN economic research methods used induction And deduction.

Induction- this is the movement of thought from particular conclusions to general ones.

Deduction- movement of thought from general provisions to private conclusions. Positive and normative analysis are widely used. Positive analysis explores the relationships between economic phenomena and processes, as they are .

Learning objectives:

• 1) study the main types of statistical relationships between social phenomena and the main methods for studying them;
• 2) show the use of correlation and regression analysis for forecasting.

STUDYING CAUSE AND EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS IN STATISTICS

Knowledge of socio-economic phenomena presupposes a comprehensive analysis of the relationships existing between them. The study of relationships is one of the most important cognitive tasks in the theory of statistics. The study of connections is based on the general philosophical concept of the universal connection of phenomena, which is learned by studying cause-and-effect relationships.

Cause-and-effect relationships call such connections between phenomena and processes when a change in one of them (cause) leads to a change in the other (effect).

Statistics is not concerned with finding out these reasons; this is dealt with by special economic disciplines. Statistics reveal the presence and direction of a relationship, quantify the impact of each cause on the variation of a specific characteristic, and express the relationship analytically, which makes it possible to take into account the specified impact when making management decisions at various levels.

The statistical study of social phenomena makes it possible to quantitatively express complex relationships based on the results of qualitative analysis, which not only precedes statistical research, but is also a criterion for evaluating the results.

Theoretical (qualitative) analysis allows us to establish economic essence phenomena and processes, reveal their essential properties, as well as similarities and differences among themselves. This is the most important stage in studying the connections between phenomena and processes.

In the process of studying dependencies, cause-and-effect relationships are revealed, which makes it possible to identify factors (reasons) that have a significant impact on the variation of the phenomena and processes being studied. Reason - is a set of conditions, circumstances, the action of which leads to the emergence consequences.

Thus, based on a qualitative analysis, it becomes possible to divide the characteristics into two classes:

• 1) factor characteristics (factors) that determine changes in other characteristics;
• 2) effective characteristics that change under the influence of factor characteristics.

It should be borne in mind that in different cases the same indicator, for example, labor productivity, can act either as a factor or as a resultant characteristic. For example, labor productivity, on the one hand, depends on the level of production automation, experience and qualifications of workers. Here, labor productivity is an effective sign. On the other hand, the profit of the enterprise depends on the level of labor productivity. In this case, labor productivity is a factor attribute.

Types of connections. Connections between phenomena are classified according to various directions: nature, degree of closeness, direction, analytical expression, etc.

The nature dependencies distinguish between functional and stochastic relationships. The relationship between characteristics is called functional (deterministic), if each value of one of them corresponds to one (or several, in the case of multiple connections) well-defined value of the other. Such dependence is strict, precise, complete.

Schematically, the functional connection can be represented as follows: X=> U.

IN general view the functional relationship can be written: y t= /(g,).

This type of connection appears quite often in mathematics, physics, and chemistry. In economics, an example of a functional connection is a directly proportional relationship between characteristics. For example, a worker’s labor productivity and the time he spent on producing a unit of output are in a functional relationship, in a strictly inverse relationship.

A characteristic feature of functional connections is that for such connections it is always known:

• - a mechanism of influence expressed by a certain equation (function).

It is characteristic of socio-economic phenomena that, along with the essential factors that mainly determine the value of the effective attribute, it is influenced by many others, including random factors. That's why existing dependency does not appear here in each individual case, as with functional connections, but only in general with a large number of observations. This dependence is called stochastic.

The origin of the stochastic theory of statistics in Russia dates back to 1880. The term “stochastic theory of statistics” (from the Greek stochastikos - to assume) belongs to J. Bernoulli. This term was introduced into scientific circulation by V.I. Bortkevich, who pointed out that in real life we ​​almost always encounter events, each of which is a consequence of several causes. Huge contribution A.A. contributed to the development of the stochastic theory of statistics. Chuprov.

With a stochastic dependence, a change in a factor characteristic leads to a change in the distribution law of the resulting characteristic (Fig. 6.1):

Rice. 6.1

An example of a stochastic relationship is the following relationship: with the same length of service for several workers, their hourly wage is different.

The peculiarity of stochastic connections is that for them it is not known:

• - a complete list of factors that determine the value of the resulting characteristic;
• - a mechanism of influence expressed by a certain equation, function.

A special case of stochastic coupling is correlation, in which the change in the average value of the resultant characteristic is due to a change in the factor characteristic.

The correlation is incomplete, not strict, and appears only in a sufficiently large number of cases. It can be represented schematically as follows: X=> F.

In general, the correlation relationship can be written: y ( = /(X,).

The correlation relationship does not exist without the stochastic one and serves as the most important characteristic of the latter. It is obvious that if there is a correlation, then it is, therefore, stochastic, since the presence of averages is a sufficient condition for the difference in distributions. At the same time, in the presence of a stochastic connection, there may be no correlation, since different distributions can have the same averages and differ in other properties, for example, have equal variation.

The correlation relationship differs from the stochastic relationship in its form of manifestation. The relationship between them is similar to the relationship between the mean and the series of the distribution. The distribution series provides the most complete characterization of the population. The average does not exist without a distribution series and at the same time serves as its most important characteristic.

Stochastic communication provides the most complete description of the relationship between characteristics.

According to the degree of crowding connections are divided into weak, moderate And strong (tight). Statistics provide quantitative criteria for assessing the closeness of a connection.

Towards distinguish between direct and reverse connections. At straight In connection with an increase (decrease) in the values ​​of a factor characteristic, an increase (decrease) in the values ​​of the resultant characteristic occurs. For example, an increase in labor productivity leads to an increase in profits. At reverse connections with the growth (decrease) of the factor characteristic, the value of the resultant one decreases (increases). For example, an increase in labor productivity leads to a decrease in costs.

By analytical expression The connections are distinguished between rectilinear (linear) and curvilinear (nonlinear). Linear is a statistical relationship that is approximately expressed by the equation of a straight line. If a relationship is expressed by the equation of any curved line (parabola, exponential hyperbola, etc.), then it is nonlinear.

Depending on the number of factors, influencing the result are distinguished steam room And multifactorial (multiple) connection. Paired correlation is a special case of reflecting the relationship between a certain dependent variable, on the one hand, and one of many independent variables, on the other. Therefore, a pairwise connection is a connection between two characteristics. When it is necessary to characterize the relationship of the entire set of independent variables with an effective characteristic, then multiple correlation is used. Consequently, if several factors influence an effective characteristic, then the relationship will be multifactorial.

There are also connections direct, indirect And false. In the first case, the factors interact directly with each other. An indirect connection is characterized by the participation of some third variable that mediates the relationship between the characteristics being studied.

The sources of false correlation were identified by K. Pearson. A false connection is a connection established between characteristics that do not have a causal connection with each other, resulting from the influence of a common cause. This is a relationship identified formally and, as a rule, confirmed only by quantitative estimates. It has no qualitative basis or is meaningless. The manifestation of a false correlation, which led to meaningless results, was discovered by the English statistician Edney J. Yule when changing the correlation between time series.

The main objectives of statistics for the study of the interrelations of social phenomena are:

• 1) based on theoretical analysis establishing the presence and direction of relationships;
• 2) quantitative measurement of the closeness of the relationship between factor (or factor) and resultant characteristics;
• 3) expression of the identified connection in the form of a certain equation.

Basic methods for studying connections. The main methods for studying functional relationships include: graphical, index, balance sheet, analytical groupings, etc.

Methods for studying correlations include: graphical, analytical groupings, parallel series, etc., as well as dispersion, correlation and regression analysis, etc.

Parallel series method is based on a comparison of two or more series of statistical values. A simple comparison of indicator values ​​makes it possible to establish the existence of a connection and get an idea of ​​its nature.

Method of analytical groupings allows you to establish the presence or absence of influence of two or more factors on the change in the resulting characteristic, as well as the direction of the relationship. Using this method it is possible to characterize common features communications.

The basic principle of studying relationships using the grouping method is that a factor characteristic is usually chosen as a grouping characteristic. Absolute, relative or average values ​​of the performance indicator are placed in the predicate of the table. Next, we study how a change in a factor attribute leads to a change in the resultant one. For example, using grouping it is possible to establish that as labor productivity increases, the cost of production decreases, but this relationship cannot be quantified.

The simplest technique for identifying the relationship between two characteristics is to construct correlation table(Table 6.1).

Table 6.1

Building a correlation table

The grouping is based on two characteristics studied in interrelation - X And Y. Frequencies /, show the number of corresponding combinations Hee Y. If / are located randomly in the table, then we can talk about the lack of connection between the variables.

In the event of the formation of any characteristic combination /, it is permissible to assert a connection between X And Y. Moreover, if/; is concentrated near one of the two diagonals, then a direct or reverse linear connection occurs. The results of the correlation table for rows and columns show two distributions - one for X, other according to Y. The grouping method allows not only to determine the closeness of the relationship, but also to measure its closeness based on the use of variation indicators.

Graphical method allows you to depict the relationship between features using a correlation field (“scattering field”), which is a visual representation of the correlation table. In the coordinate system, the values ​​of the factor characteristic are plotted on the abscissa axis, and the resultant characteristic is plotted on the ordinate axis (Fig. 6.2-6.7).

By the location of the points and their concentration in a certain direction, one can judge the presence of a connection.

Of all the listed methods, correlation-regression analysis is the most advanced, since it allows not only to identify, but also to express the existing relationship in the form of a certain mathematical equation that characterizes the mechanism of interaction between factors and performance characteristics.

Rice. 6.3.

Rice. 6.4.

Rice. 6.5.

Rice. 6.7. Correlation field graph Dependence between Hee Woo absent

The mandatory conditions for using correlation and regression analysis are the following:

• 1) random selection of survey units;
• 2) homogeneity of the population according to the characteristic being studied;
• 3) a sufficiently large number of surveyed units;
• 4) all factor characteristics must have a quantitative expression.

The basis of the concept of simulation tools, with the help of which it is possible to carry out structural analysis and simulation modeling, lies in mechanisms that make it possible to aggregate elementary processes and establish functional connections between them (cause-and-effect, informational, financial and others). Below we propose a network concept that differs significantly from the analytical apparatus discussed in the literature on queuing theory, using successful results from the theory of stochastic networks and numerical methods based on diffuse approximation of queuing processes.

Cause-and-effect relationships 50 Non-oriented connections 63

When in different countries Since the same cause-and-effect relationships apply, different methods from one country can be transferred to another. Japanese business has borrowed a lot from American and European theories. The same can be said about the principle on which they rely in Japan; it also significantly

Research appears to support Porter and Lawler's view that high performance is a cause of overall satisfaction rather than a consequence of it. As a result, the Porter-Lawler model made a major contribution to the understanding of motivation. She showed, in particular, that motivation is not a simple element in the chain of cause-and-effect relationships. This model also shows how important it is to integrate concepts such as effort, ability, results, rewards, satisfaction and perception within a single interconnected system.

As the processing of the analyzed data is completed, they begin to study them. The main goal of studying information is to establish a cause-and-effect relationship between factors that influence changes in the analyzed object. This stage of analytical work is the most complex and responsible. First, deviations from planned targets are studied without disclosing the place of their occurrence and the reasons that influenced the change in the indicators under consideration compared to the planned ones. Then the factors that influenced the deviations, the places of their manifestation are established, and the degree of influence of each factor on the final performance indicators of the enterprise is determined. Positive factors that contribute to the successful implementation of the plan are identified, as well as negative ones that hinder the fulfillment of planned targets in the reporting period. The enterprise's internal production reserves are revealed, their value is determined, and ways of implementation are outlined.

UNDERSTANDING is the ability to comprehend, comprehend the content, meaning, meaning of something, awareness, reflection in the individual’s brain of connections between objects and phenomena of the real world, one of the aspects of thinking, knowledge of objective reality. There is a special science - hermeneutics - the art and theory of interpretation of texts. Without P. as a conscious state of the subject, continuation of communication is impossible. P. is characterized by a feeling of clear internal coherence and organization of the phenomena under consideration. This can be logical ordering, a clear “vision” of cause-and-effect relationships, when previously mechanically listed facts are combined into a single logical system. It is possible for the subject to have a clear sense of the coherence and meaningfulness of phenomena even without considering their logical framework. In this case, the phenomenon acts as aimed at a certain goal comparable to the goals of the given subject; the person understands the behavior of another person, his thoughts, motives. Perhaps P. based on empathy, exchange of emotions. P.'s psychological mechanisms include identification, projection (the subject's conscious or unconscious transference of his own thoughts and feelings to another), empathy (penetration into the experiences of another person), insight (sudden and indeducible from the past experience of P. of another person or situation) , intuition.

The development of standards, based on a systems approach, consists of identifying and establishing deep cause-and-effect relationships between the resulting product and the resources consumed and used in specific production, objective and other conditions.

Objectively existing cause-and-effect relationships between the goal achieved in the block, the operation performed for this purpose, the characteristics of the block and the need for resources for the creation and operation of the block determine the possibility of building a comprehensive tracking system of standards for it.

Without understanding the essence of a phenomenon, it is very difficult to find a suitable form of expression for a given situation. This statement fully applies to such a well-known phenomenon as economic accounting. And although the history of the development of our self-financing goes back almost 80 years, there is still no acceptable scientific interpretation of its essence. Indeed, the so-called cost accounting as a “method of planned management at various levels of production” does not reflect the essence of cost accounting, but only the method of influencing it. The essence of any phenomenon is the internal, most characteristic, stable and determining cause-and-effect relationship of its state and development. Consequently, in understanding the essence of economic calculation, the same categories of cause, effect and mechanism connecting them should lie. It is legitimate, therefore, to assert that economic accounting is a special organizational and economic mechanism for transferring the possibility and necessity of the economic activity of an enterprise /“Output” into the process - the cause / into its goal, the result / “Input” from the process - the consequence /.

At the third stage, a scheme for a comprehensive investment project is developed. Graphically, it is represented in the form of a block pattern, where each analyzed element corresponds to a block of a certain geometric shape. Structural elements are interconnected by arrows that show the direction of cause-and-effect relationships of the elements of a complex investment project. The indicators selected at the previous stage are distributed among the elements and connections of the system.

During development methodological foundations to improve production relations in an oil and gas production association, they used the method of logical ascent from the particular to the general in conjunction with the method of cause-and-effect relationships. Since social production organizations have a hierarchical structure and at the same time lower levels many private production problems are being solved, then as we move to the higher floors of the organization, the number of tasks is reduced, which means that labor is socialized from the bottom up, from the level material production to senior management levels.

It follows that the nature of specific labor is determined by the nature of the other three system characteristics of an elementary production and economic system, since it is in a cause-and-effect relationship with them.

However, this does not mean that cost objects cannot or should not be used as allocation rates. To find a trade-off between practicality and cost/benefit criteria (as is typical for the traditional approach), a full cause-and-effect analysis may be required.

Interpretation. When assessing non-financial parameters, it is not always possible to accurately establish cause-and-effect relationships, which complicates the interpretation of estimates, and therefore the conclusions. For example, company managers may believe that improved employee qualifications have led to a decrease in the number of failures, or that a decrease in staff turnover is due to improved working conditions - but to what extent is this true?

A hypothesis characterizes scientific foresight at the level of general theory. This means that the initial basis for constructing a hypothesis is the theory and the patterns discovered on its basis and the cause-and-effect relationships of the functioning and development of the objects under study. At the hypothesis level, a qualitative characteristic of these objects is given, expressing the general patterns of their behavior.

As stated earlier, cost control is the number that best measures changes in load that affect allowable costs. Selecting the appropriate budget performance indicator for an expense item in a responsibility center is by no means automatic. If an inappropriate indicator is established, the estimate will be ineffective for solving planning and cost control problems. An inappropriate control measure may also adversely affect the value of the entire cost planning program as an operational tool in the eyes of the responsible manager. On the other hand, it is quite possible that there are a number of statistical indicators that appear to have a cause-and-effect relationship with the expense item. As will be shown below, the best natural connection can be derived from

Thus, the main difference between an object and an object is that the object includes only the main, most significant properties and characteristics from the point of view of this science. In our opinion, such an essential feature of ACD are cause-and-effect relationships in the economic activities of organizations.

An important methodological feature of the analysis is that it is capable of not only establishing cause-and-effect relationships, but also giving them quantitative characteristics, i.e. ensure measurement of the influence of factors on performance results. This makes the diagnosis of the state of the economy more accurate, and recommendations based on its results more reasonable. The study and measurement of causal relationships in analysis can be carried out using the methods of induction and deduction. The method of studying causal relationships using logical induction is that the research is conducted from the particular to the general, from the study of particular facts to generalizations, from causes to results. Deduction is a method when research involves

An important methodological feature of ACD, which follows directly from the previous one, is the development and use of a system of indicators necessary for a comprehensive, systemic connection of economic phenomena and processes in the economic activity of an enterprise.

It is also necessary to distinguish between static and dynamic factor analysis. The first type is used when studying the influence of factors on performance indicators on the corresponding date. Another method is a technique for studying cause-and-effect relationships in dynamics.

Analytical (cause-and-effect) groupings are used to determine the presence, direction and form of connection between the indicators being studied. According to the nature of the characteristics on which the analytical grouping is based, it can be qualitative (when the characteristic does not have a quantitative expression) or quantitative.

The events referred to in the first paragraph of this argument are connected by a cause-and-effect relationship. There are erroneous arguments in which the usual chronological connection of events is taken into account.

At the level of syntax we can also talk about argumentative influence. Here, a special role is played by the use of introductory constructions (commenting on the situation), contrast and comparison, the use of various types of subordinate relationships (cause-and-effect, conditional, temporary), questions and exclamations, direct speech. An example of the successful use of a rhetorical question is in the text Wella Vitality we examined.

The second group of problems that occupy a central place in the work is related to the specifics of the specific energy resource policy pursued by Arab progressive states that are at the stage of national democratic revolutions - world exporters of liquid fuels. As a central link in their national strategy of economic and socio-cultural Construction, as well as as a foreign policy instrument, oil policy is formed taking into account a variety of numerous parameters, macroeconomic and sectoral, while simultaneously being influenced by a number of non-economic factors. Possibly more complete coverage of this complex set of cause-and-effect relationships is the most important guarantee of the depth of its analysis and the reliability of forecasting. These elements undoubtedly need systematization. But excessive schematicism and enthusiasm for modeling are sometimes more dangerous than excessive caution in generalizations. Often similar, and sometimes identical, objective prerequisites serve as the basis for fundamentally different raw material strategies, which was very clearly visible in Iraq in the 60s and Libya at the turn of the 70s. This once again convinced the author of the need special attention to the social and class origins of oil policy, which, other things being equal, often determine its character, as well as the character of subjective factors in general. The same point significantly influenced the choice of countries - the main subjects of study in this work.

Gallup notes Only on the issue of flying first class at company expense, none of the executives who were not entitled to it expressed any condemnation or feelings of awkwardness. Of course, it is difficult to immediately discern a cause-and-effect relationship in this, but, undoubtedly, there is a close connection between doubts about the correctness of some benefits and their presence personally in the person who speaks out.

Statistical methods of analysis, the Japanese believe, are necessary because only with their help can one objectively determine the real relationship between the numerous factors that influence the production of a product and its quality at the end. Statistics make it possible to establish cause-and-effect relationships that led to the appearance of marriage. It allows you to adjust