At the beginning of July 2018, the main directions became known budget policy for 2019-2021. To know what will happen in the next 3 years, you don’t need to go to a fortune teller. It is enough to read this review, prepared on the basis of the speech of the Minister of Finance of Russia before the State Duma.
There is growth
Let us say right away that the main directions of budget policy for 2019-2021 are closely related to the plans of the Government of the Russian Federation regarding taxes and customs tariffs.
As of 2018, the state of the economy is as follows: there is steady growth, in annual terms – 2% of GDP. Growth is achieved both through exports and domestic demand. This made it possible for wages to grow by 2.9% in 2017 and by 9% in 2018 (since the beginning of the year).
The profitability of the non-oil and gas industry is also growing - more than 13%, and the stability of the financial sector has also increased.
Basic goals
The President set national development goals for the next 6 years. Therefore it is necessary:
- achieve an increase in economic growth rates to the world average;
- ensure growth real income population;
- achieve poverty reduction;
- increasing the growth of pensions above the rate of inflation;
- improve the quality and accessibility of healthcare and education;
- create a modern comfortable infrastructure.
Stimulating investment
Economic growth will be accelerated by stimulating:
- economic activity;
- investment in fixed capital.
As of 2018, investments amount to about 21.5% of GDP. This figure will be increased to 25% to ensure achievement of the planned growth rates.
Six system tasks
| № | Measure |
| 1 | Long term fixation tax conditions. At the same time, the key goal tax changes– additional tuning tax system(should provide a resource for transformation and stimulate economic activity). Increasing the basic VAT rate from 18 to 20% (will create a resource in the economy - more than 600 billion rubles per year will go to the budget, which can be used to finance new projects - and at the same time will least affect business and people with low incomes, since preferential VAT rates are retained). Fixing the insurance premium rate on a permanent basis at 22, and not 26%, as is currently provided for by law from 2021. Predictability of non-tax payments will be ensured by including part of non-tax payments that have signs of taxes in tax law(there will be a separate bill). Complete abolition of tax on movable property(the so-called modernization tax). |
| 2 | Development of a new special regime in the form of a tax on professional income (pilot project in 4 regions since 2019). Goals:
|
| 3 | Accelerating VAT refunds by exporters by reducing threshold values amounts paid by enterprises over three years - from 7 to 2 billion rubles (will provide additional working capital enterprises worth more than 100 billion rubles per year) |
| 4 | Setting up an investment deduction for income tax - removing restrictions on its use by group members |
| 5 | Cancellation of transfer pricing controls (will significantly reduce the administrative burden on entrepreneurs) |
| 6 | Financial measures - creating a reliable system pension savings based on accumulative pension capital and the development of life insurance |
The government rejected:
- introduction of a sales tax;
- differentiated income tax scale;
- abolition of preferential VAT rates, etc.
Industry infrastructure projects
Most of the main directions of the 2019-2021 budget policy are devoted to infrastructure development.
A special development fund will be created through increased borrowing. Its volume will be 3.5 trillion rubles over a six-year period. It will become a source for the infrastructural development of the country, whose backwardness in this regard is holding back economic growth. An increase in public debt will not go towards increasing current spending, but towards creating new state assets, which will contribute to economic growth.
Projects will be selected that affect the quality of the economy and the quality of life of the population - the development of urban, social and digital infrastructure, interregional connectivity.
Attracting private investors in infrastructure projects: for this purpose, a special project amendments to the legislation on public-private partnerships.
Neftyanka
It is planned to introduce an additional income tax from 2019 as a pilot measure. The goal is to transfer the fiscal burden in the development of fields that are currently unprofitable for oil producers to later stages of their development.
Within 6 years, the so-called oil and gas maneuver will be completed, which consists of the gradual abolition of export duties, an increase in domestic taxation with compensation in the form of a negative excise tax on oil for domestic oil refineries.
Main goals:
- stimulate the modernization of the oil refining sector;
- carry out a gradual transition to a single energy market on the territory of the EAEU;
- create a mechanism to prevent prices for gasoline and diesel from rising when prices change on world markets.
Business
Reducing the shadow sector due to:
- digitalization of tax administration;
- creating a unified information environment for tax and customs authorities(incl. general mechanism for traceability of goods).
Additional significant resources will be allocated to support small and medium-sized businesses:
- to stimulate exports;
- increase in labor productivity;
- digitalization of the economy.
Social sphere
The main task set by the President is to enter the club of countries with a life expectancy of more than 80 years.
The draft budget will take into account the resources needed:
- for disease prevention;
- sports opportunities;
- undergoing preventive examinations;
- ensuring greater accessibility medical services, especially in primary care.
Particular attention is paid to the treatment of cardiovascular diseases.
Oncology centers will be modernized and modern clinical guidelines will be introduced.
To preserve people's health, it is planned to ensure new standards of environmental well-being:
- improve the quality of drinking water;
- close landfills in cities;
- reduce the level of air pollution in large industrial centers.
Additional resources will also be invested in education, science and culture.
The Government faces the task of ensuring competitiveness Russian education. This is the entry of Russia:
- among the ten leading countries in the world in terms of the quality of general education;
- five leading countries in the areas of scientific and technological development.
Pensions
Another task set by the President is to increase pensions above the inflation rate. Amendments to pension legislation have been prepared that should improve the situation of non-working pensioners and provide them with a decent pension.
The size of the old-age pension for non-working pensioners will increase by an average of 1,000 rubles already in 2019, and by the end of the six-year period (in 2024) the average size pensions are expected to be about 20,000 rubles, which is 35% higher than the level of pensions in 2018.
Return to national projects
The Government plans to solve all these problems with the help of such an instrument as a national project. Each such project will have:
- specific goals;
- tasks;
- the personally responsible minister of the relevant ministry.
Sources of funds for project implementation:
- results of changes in tax legislation;
- increase in government borrowing on the market.
National projects will set target indicators for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, determine the volume of financial assistance to the regions, and establish responsibility for the implementation of national goals.
The implementation of national projects will require additional adjustment of interbudgetary relations to increase the resource base of the regions. For this purpose it is provided:
- gradual transfer from the federal to the regional level of excise taxes on petroleum products to improve the condition of regional and municipal roads;
- transfer from the federal to the regional level of part of the excise taxes on strong alcohol (it is necessary to compensate for the lost income of the regions after the abolition of the tax on movable property), etc.
You can fully familiarize yourself with the main directions of the budget policy for 2019-2021 via the direct link (draft).
The Russian Ministry of Finance has prepared a draft of the main directions of budget, tax and customs tariff policies for 2019–2021. Officials presented it to the public in a report and actually revealed their plans to change taxes for businesses and citizens in the next 3 years. It’s nice that there should be fewer reports, but there should be more control, which is obvious but unpleasant.
What's happened?
The Russian Ministry of Finance presented to the public the report “Main directions of budget, tax and customs tariff policies for 2019 and the planning period of 2020 and 2021”, in which it revealed its plans for filling the budget, as well as spending funds federal budget for various articles. Since expenses will increase every year, revenues also need to increase, officials say. Through what measures do they intend to achieve this?
Taxes as a way to increase budget revenues
Since in the period until 2021 an increase in spending on important areas is planned, for example, on healthcare, officials intend to spend:
- up to 459.5 billion rubles in 2019;
- up to 563.2 billion rubles in 2020;
- up to 572.5 billion rubles in 2021,
then budget revenues should increase. Therefore, according to the Ministry of Finance, increasing VAT from 18% to 20% is necessary and is practically a fait accompli. As compensation for taxpayers for this unpopular measure, officials are proposing to speed up VAT refunds. In particular, for exporters of goods and services, the threshold for the total amount of taxes paid over the previous 3 years will be reduced from 7 to 2 billion rubles. Reaching this amount of taxes paid gives the exporter the right to refund VAT through a declaration procedure, without submitting to tax authorities bank guarantee or a guarantee agreement.
Also, in order to replenish the budget and bring out of the shadows a significant number of citizens who earn money on their own, officials decided to introduce a new special tax regime— a system of taxation of professional income of individuals who do not have employees. We are talking about the income of self-employed citizens, and for calculating and transferring tax it will be used special program, developed on the basis of new information technology solutions. With its help, taxpayers automatically, using special mobile application, will be able to exchange information with the Federal Tax Service. Tax reporting is not provided for this category of taxpayers. The experiment to implement the system should begin on January 1, 2019 in four constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
By the way, the Ministry of Finance does not plan to change personal income tax, but it intends to seriously change the approach to its administration, and at the same time deal with the conditions for providing tax deductions for personal income tax.
New procedure for administering personal income tax and tax deductions
Officials included in their draft a clarification of the procedure personal income tax taxes regarding the use of property tax deduction when selling property received free of charge, as well as by gift or inheritance. In addition, the approach to providing property deductions to taxpayers on interest, if the loan was received for the purpose of refinancing a mortgage, or the loan was received by the taxpayer in accordance with the assistance program separate categories mortgage borrowers who find themselves in a difficult financial situation.
If a taxpayer for some reason does not declare his income from the sale of real estate, then the tax authorities will be able to independently charge him tax, taking into account cadastral value such real estate. Separately, specialists from the Ministry of Finance emphasized the need to clarify the procedure for recognizing expenses when determining the tax base for personal income tax when selling real estate used in entrepreneurial activity.
Individual entrepreneurs on common system taxation, the mandatory declaration of income is expected to be abolished, so for them, officials will clarify the procedure for calculating and paying personal income tax.
Preferential tax regimes: fewer reports, more types of activities
The main thing that officials promised to representatives of small businesses, in particular individual entrepreneurs who apply the simplified tax system with the object of taxation in the form of income and use online cash registers, is the abolition of the obligation to submit tax return. That is, the entrepreneur will no longer need to report to the Federal Tax Service. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance announced an expansion of the list of types of business activities for which PSN can be applied. Officials are planning to add to this list in the near future:
- activities related to crop and livestock production;
- services related to these activities.
Subjects of the Russian Federation will receive the authority to establish restrictions on the use of PSN on their territory. Such restrictions, according to the Ministry of Finance, may be associated with:
- total area of residential and residential premises for rent (hire) non-residential premises, dacha, land plots;
- total number vehicles and water transport vessels;
- total number of objects retail and public catering and (or) their total area.
By property taxes The Ministry of Finance plans to complete the transition to taxation of real estate based on their cadastral value. Officials also announced that as of January 1, 2019, movable property of organizations will cease to be subject to property tax. Unfortunately, such a preference is not provided for individuals. But officials suggested that they clarify the procedure for calculating property tax by establishing a coefficient limiting the annual increase in the amount of tax calculated on the basis of the cadastral value. As a result of such amendments, the tax may be increased by a maximum of 10% compared to the previous year.
Insurance premiums: tariff freeze
The Ministry of Finance promised to fix the rate of insurance premiums for compulsory pension insurance in the amount of 22% with the maximum value of the base for taxation of contributions and 10% above the maximum value for an unlimited period. Also, all insurance premium rates for all types of compulsory social insurance will be fixed at 30%. The plans of officials include the expansion of reduced rates of insurance premiums, as well as exemption from certain types of taxes. compensation payments, for example, to pay the cost of travel and baggage transportation to and from the vacation destination for employees of organizations located in the Far North and equivalent areas.
It’s time to rewrite the Tax and Budget Codes altogether
This was stated by the head of the Committee on Budget and Taxes, Andrei Makarov, at a hearing to discuss the future of budget policy. And here's why: over 20 years of existence in tax code Several tens of thousands of amendments were made, and today it is outdated and slows down the development of the economy. Makarov spoke about the Budget Code as follows:
Today, neither regions nor consumers understand what is written there.
On July 11, 2018, the Ministry of Finance published new project main directions of budget, tax and customs tariff policies. Within the framework of this document, power will be exercised economic regulation in 2019, as well as during the planning period from 2020 to 2021. So what does the Project say, and what changes should Russians expect?
Base for transformations
The first part of the document is a listing of the results and results that have already been achieved thanks to the budget policy of 2017-2018. It says here that the systematic actions of the government provided the country with:
- Formation of sustainable economic environment, which is stable even in the face of constant changes in oil prices. Not only tax and non-tax conditions, but also inflation indicators remain constant.
- Creating a competitive space in which there are no barriers to personal disclosure and, on the contrary, there are prospects for the development of human capital.
The authorities managed to develop a promising trajectory economic growth, characterized by:
- increasing gross domestic product;
- expanding the range of dynamically developing areas;
- restoration of the investment system;
- stabilization wages population;
- profitability of domestic industry, which is expressed in active exports of products.
Future plans
The Project notes that foreign economic conditions in 2019, 2020 and 2021 may turn out to be extremely unstable and even unfavorable, for example, if the United States tightens sanctions against Iran, which will lead to an imbalance in international market oil, and possibly a price collapse. That is why the main directions of Russia's budget policy will be concentrated around internal structural reforms, which will reduce dependence on external factors.
What will the economy be like: forecasts
Economic growth is expected to slow in 2019, reducing not only investment activity, but also consumer demand and real wage growth (from an expected 6.3% by the end of this year to less than 1% next year). The savings rate will also become lower, i.e. people will begin to cut their own consumer spending, – this value will fall from 3.5% this year to 2.6% in 2019. However, ministers predict that the economy will adapt to difficult conditions by 2020, which will be facilitated by:
- redistribution of state budget funds;
- attracting investors to business (the share of investment in GDP is planned to be raised from the current 21.5% to 25%);
- creating conditions for the development of private entrepreneurship.
The latter will be achieved through the development of a stable and unburdensome tax and tariff policy for the next 6 years (the so-called “adjustment”), as well as a system of incentive banking regulation. The state itself will cease to strictly control small and medium business, giving their participants more freedom to conduct business.
Changes in tax legislation
In 2019, the authorities are going to adopt new edition Budget Code (BC). In order to mitigate taxation on the business sector, VAT for consumers is planned to be raised from 18% to 20%, and the insurance premium rate for employers will remain unchanged at 30%.
For beneficiaries and socially vulnerable categories of the population, VAT on vital goods and essential services will remain the same as it is now. In addition, changes may affect:
| Name | What will happen |
|---|---|
| Movable property tax | Cancellation possible |
| VAT refund process for exporters | Will become faster |
| Investment tax deduction | From now on, INV will be able to be used by all members of the Consolidated Group of Taxpayers The scope of use of INV will expand to compensate for the costs of those people who carry out activities within the framework of an agreement on the integrated development of the territory (construction of construction, social or transport infrastructure facilities) |
| Tax on professional income (pilot project in 4 regions since 2019) | It will need to be paid to self-employed people who are not registered as a legal entity or individual entrepreneur (for example, nannies, tutors, etc.). The amount can be 3-6% of wages |
| Tariffs of insurance premiums for residents of the Territory of Advanced Social and Economic Development in the Far Eastern District of the Russian Federation and for residents of the Free Port of Vladivostok | Benefits and preferences will be provided if residents open new enterprises here before December 31, 2025 |
| Oil industry | From January 1, 2019, a new test tax on additional income from hydrocarbon production (AIT) will appear. It will be tested only in some regions. At the same time, export customs duty and mineral extraction tax (MET) will be reduced. |
| Oil transportation | From January 1, 2019 until 2024, the export duty on oil and petroleum products will be gradually reduced (the so-called “completion of the oil and gas tax maneuver”) - from 30% to 0%. In this case, the mineral extraction tax will increase in proportion to the reduced value. special types of compensation will be offered - this is a negative excise tax (for refineries producing gasoline) and the so-called. “floating” excise tax, which will partially reimburse enterprises’ operating costs and support oil market generally. |
| Taxation on real estate individuals | The transition to contributions calculated from the cadastral value of objects will continue |
Creating a competitive environment
The authorities will continue to create an open space for honest business activities. The main priority of this area is the widespread introduction of digital sources of information storage and processing and, in particular, the creation of a unified information base tax and customs authorities.
Newly opened companies and firms will be offered a benefit called “start for 0” - if the application for registration of an individual entrepreneur or legal entity is submitted in electronic format, there will be no need to pay a fee for it. This is how the authorities plan to support start-up organizations.
From now on, regarding sponsorship and state aid will receive priority national projects. For these purposes, savings from the Infrastructure Development Fund, which will appear in 2019, will be used. Funding and support for key developments will be carried out jointly by federal and regional authorities. So that subjects are interested in maximum disclosure of their own economic potentials, the federal authorities will provide them with the opportunity to receive annual grants in the amount of 20,000,000,000 rubles for achieving the highest growth rates of tax potential.
How deputies adopted the budget for 2019-2020: video
Today, July 9, the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes is holding parliamentary hearings “The main directions of budget, tax and customs tariff policy for 2019 and the planning period of 2020 and 2021.” There, deputies discuss the draft document, which was presented by the Ministry of Finance the day before. According to the ministry’s plan, the increase in VAT will bring the budget 2 trillion rubles over three years, financing the next May decree of Russian President Vladimir Putin will cost the state treasury 3.7 trillion rubles.
According to the published “Main Directions...” (.pdf), in the next three years, federal budget revenues and expenses will increase significantly. The Ministry of Finance expects the budget to be exclusively in surplus due to rising revenues amid high oil prices and increased taxes. The surplus in 2019 is expected to be 1.96 trillion rubles, or 1.8% of GDP, and in 2020 - 1.15 trillion rubles, or 1% of GDP. In 2021, the surplus will already amount to 659 billion rubles, or 0.6% of GDP, almost equal to the current one. This year, the Ministry of Finance planned budget “surplus” at 0.5% of GDP.
A significant increase in budget revenues from next year is expected primarily due to from 18% to 20%, this will give the state treasury about 630 billion rubles. in 2019, 678 billion rubles in 2020, 730 billion rubles in 2021.
Meeting.
introductionDmitry Medvedev:
We continue our preparatory meetings as part of budget procedures.
At separate industry meetings, we came to certain decisions on spending on the development of industry, transport, agriculture, defense, on financing the social sphere, on support measures regional budgets. Yesterday, some of my colleagues present here and I. Today we will consider the proposals of the Ministry of Finance on the main directions of budget policy and more detailed budget plans that were prepared as a result of these industry meetings. Once again, in an enlarged form, we will go through the forks. In mid-September, after consideration by the Government Commission on Budget Projects, we will discuss the budget at a Government meeting, as is customary. And in general, by October 1, it is planned to submit the entire budget package to the State Duma. I ask everyone to take this into account, keeping in mind that there is little time left.
Meeting participants
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List of participants at the meeting on the main directions of budget policy and the main parameters of the federal budget for 2018 and for the planning period of 2019 and 2020, August 31, 2017
What points would you like to draw attention to?
First. We agreed that we proceed from the base version of the forecast. There are indeed plenty of uncertainty factors. We must take them into account calmly, without inflated expectations. And internal problems, of course, exist, and external challenges, which have not diminished. In these conditions, a restrained, careful budget policy is probably the best option in order to maintain the level of government debt at an acceptable level, ensure stability and balance of the entire financial system. In recent years, despite many negative factors, we must admit that we have become accustomed to fiscal stability and take it for granted. But this is not true at all. First of all, this is the result of our joint work and the tough budget policy that the Government has pursued all these years, although it was not easy.
Context
The targets remain the same: a four percent inflation rate, a gradual reduction in the budget deficit. New budget this will also be taken into account.
Second. The budget must be balanced. This allows you to confidently finance social obligations. Salaries, scholarships, pensions and benefits must be guaranteed by budgetary resources, no matter what happens to oil prices. Although there are different assumptions.
Now we are generally coping with this task, including thanks to the reserves that we created. The new budget must also provide the necessary funds. To achieve this, we made two important decisions. One of them concerns the new budget rule. The so-called cut-off price for Urals oil is fixed and annually, starting next year, 2018, will be indexed by 2%.
Secondly, we are pooling the resources of our sovereign wealth funds. There is only one fund left – the Fund national welfare. Now all additional oil “surplus profits” will be directed to it. At the same time, the intended use and purpose of the funds of the National Welfare Fund does not change.
And finally, third. Yesterday at the meeting we noted certain positive changes that have emerged in the economy. There are different assessments on this matter. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, in the second quarter GDP growth accelerated to quite good numbers. But these trends are not yet stable enough to speak of a qualitative change. economic situation. This is something to keep in mind. However, we discussed what needs to be done to consolidate this kind of positive changes, both in terms of tax and customs tariff regulation. Fiscal policy must also stimulate change and development real sector, that is, industry and agriculture, creating conditions for long-term economic growth.
We use a project approach. I also held a meeting about this yesterday. Once again, I would like to note that we created new projects and new priorities precisely in order to concentrate funding on them. This should be kept in mind by industry departments, our general economic departments, and Government leadership when we make decisions about what we save for financing and what we don’t save. It is obvious that priorities are just that: they should be financed on a priority basis.