- BALANCED BUDGET
- FEDERAL BUDGET
- FEDERAL BUDGET INCOME
- FEDERAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES
The task of ensuring a balanced budget is the most important for the state in the implementation economic policy. This article is subject to consideration and analysis of income and expenses federal budget for the period 2013-2017.
- The role of federal taxes in the tax system of the Russian Federation
- Use of public-private partnership mechanisms for the development of public infrastructure
- Ways to strengthen the revenue side of the Federal Budget of the Russian Federation
The balance of revenues and expenditures of the federal budget has a significant impact on the stability of the country as a whole. At the same time, the question of the ratio of the revenue and expenditure side of the budget is especially relevant today. Considering dynamics budget system Russian Federation for 2016, one can notice a gradual decrease in the share of federal budget revenues in relation to GDP - from 20.9% in 2013 to 17.5% in 2016, as well as a reduction in total federal budget expenditures to 20.5% relative to GDP.
Table 1. Main indicators of the federal budget for 2013-2017, billion rubles
According to the draft law on the federal budget for 2017, budget revenues amounted to 14,720.3 billion rubles, and in 2016 - 13,738.5 billion rubles, i.e., the excess of income is pronounced. Is it good or bad?
According to the Ministry of Finance, this jump in budget revenues is considered to be the maximum point in history, but this growth can be justified by the level of inflation and the weak ruble included in the budget. Oil should also be noted as a profitable source of the budget, because according to the forecast for the next 2 years, the rate per barrel will be about $40.
Increasing revenue leads, first of all, to an imbalance in the budget, so the only way to strengthen the budget is to reduce federal spending. To improve this situation, the Ministry of Finance proposes to change the composition of the use of sovereign funds and use more borrowed funds(about 1005 billion rubles), which is almost twice as much as borrowings in 2016.
It is planned to use 1,150 billion rubles to finance the budget deficit. from the Reserve Fund, as a result of which these funds will be spent. In this situation, it is necessary to use the National Wealth Fund, from which the Ministry of Finance wants to spend 660 billion rubles. during 2017 to cover the deficit. Replenishment of sovereign funds until 2020 is not planned.
Consider the structure of federal budget revenues for 2013-2017.
Table 2. Federal budget revenues for 2013-2017, billion rubles
Indicators/Years |
2017 in % to 2013 |
|||||
Oil and gas revenues |
||||||
income tax |
||||||
Customs duties |
||||||
Dividends on shares owned by the Russian Federation |
||||||
Other income |
According to the table, it can be seen that during the period under review there is an increase in income. Let us consider the federal budget revenues from the point of view of tax and non-tax revenues. Quite a long period of time tax income make up the bulk of all federal budget revenues. So, for the period 2013-2017. their volume is more than 50%, while this share has increased significantly over the period under review by 10.6 percentage points. This fact indicates that the state, solving its socio-economic tasks, decided to replenish financial base due to tax revenues, including severance tax, income tax, excises, VAT, etc. their share decreased by almost 11.5%. This decrease can be explained by a decrease in income from foreign economic activity. This trend is not accidental, given the relatively restrained policy of Russia in the world market, since at the moment the state is striving to develop the domestic market.
Let us consider the structure of federal budget expenditures for the period under study.
Table 3. Federal budget expenditures for 2013-2017, billion rubles
Analyzing the table, you can see that in 2017, incomes were higher than in previous ones, i.e. there is an upward trend in the expenditure side of the budget. This fact can be substantiated by the fact that in the context of functional areas budget spending most planned to be spent on social policy- 5080 billion rubles. Under the "National Economy" section, appropriations amount to almost 2,300 billion rubles. "National Defense" will require about 2840 billion rubles in the open part of the budget. This is 27% less than what was allocated to national defense in 2016. Despite a slight increase in the total share of spending on the social block, the 2017 budget cannot be called “social” in terms of concern for development social sphere. The main changes in terms of pensions were reduced to a reduction in the scale of the planned indexation and another freeze of the funded part.
Thus, we can sum up that the budget imbalance still exists, and according to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, by 2020 the deficit should decrease to 1.2%. In terms of the population, the state needs to improve the policy in the field of health and education and pay more attention to the social aspects of the development of the state.
Bibliography
- State and municipal management: Textbook / Ed. N.I. Zakharova [Text]. - M.: INFRA - M, 2015. - 278 p.
- Romanovsky M.V., Vrublevskaya O.V. The budget system of the Russian Federation: A textbook for university students studying economic specialties. 4th ed., - St. Petersburg: Peter, 2015. - 576 p.
- Siraeva R.R. Control over the execution of the budget as an integral part budget process/R.R. Siraeva, G.F. Garifullina // Socio-economic development modern society in the conditions of modernization: materials of the International scientific-practical conference. - Saratov, 2016. - S. 158-159.
- Official website of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation / Monthly Information on the execution of the federal budget (data from January 1, 2011) [ Electronic resource]: http://minfin.ru/ru/
The beginning of the 10s of the 21st century was marked by a sharp increase in supporters of the theory of the "Russian superpower" and the "special" role of the Russian state in the world. But the situation in the world has seriously changed after the fall in energy prices in 2014, which greatly reduced the ranks of the adherents of “getting up from your knees”.
In fact, everything is quite simple: Russia, since the early 2000s, has lived on the money from the sale of petrocarbons, which have grown strongly against the backdrop of a growing global economy. No real competitive economy that could offer the world high-quality products was created in the Russian Federation during the years of “oil abundance”, and most of the proceeds from the sale of oil and gas were simply stolen and remained in the pockets of officials.
But let's use the language of numbers to determine if Russia is as powerful and wealthy as some claim. Russian politicians, comparing the size of the state budgets of Russia and other countries of the world for 2016.
State budgets of the leading countries of the world for 2016
| Countries | Million USD | |
| 1 | USA | 3 251 000 |
| 2 | PRC | 2 426 000 |
| 3 | Germany | 1 515 000 |
| 4 | Japan | 1 439 000 |
| 5 | France | 1 253 000 |
| 6 | Great Britain | 1 101 000 |
| 7 | Italy | 876 000 |
| 8 | Canada | 585 000 |
| 9 | Spain | 473 600 |
| 10 | Australia | 425 700 |
| 11 | Netherlands | 336 500 |
| 12 | The Republic of Korea | 291 300 |
| 13 | Mexico | 259 600 |
| 14 | Sweden | 250 800 |
| 15 | India | 236 000 |
| 16 | Belgium | 226 800 |
| 17 | Switzerland | 221 900 |
| 18 | Norway | 230 300 |
| 19 | Russia | 216 000 |
| 30 | Venezuela | 203 400 |
As can be seen from the table above, the size of the Russian is not even included in the top 15 budgets of the countries of the world, its value is less than that of Belgium and Sweden (!), 7 times less than that of Germany, 12 times less than that of China and 16 times less than that of the United States. By the way, the costs of the same United States exceed the federal budget of Russia by 3 times.
Russian federal budget for 2017: end of story
With the new federal budget for 2017, neither the government nor the State Duma was surprised by anything: it is a budget for eating up and continuing the agony of the socio-economic model approved in the early 2000s. Despite the fall in the standard of living of the population in the outgoing year, the tendency to strengthen power at the expense of law enforcement agencies continued, for which they do not save money in the country's budget. Thus, about 4.7 trillion rubles are allocated for military spending and law enforcement agencies in the new budget. rubles, which exceeds the total spending on healthcare, education and culture by more than 4 times. The country's budget is calculated from the average annual price of Urals 40 oil per barrel, which is an optimistic scenario, given global trends, as well as the arrival of the Republican Party in the United States, led by Donald Trump, promising to open access to the world market for American oil.
Every year the government of the Russian Federation develops and adopts the federal budget. On December 19, 2016, the President of the Russian Federation signed a law on the adoption of the budget for 2017, the country's main document regulating the principles of distribution Money describing directions economic development states.
The document fixes the planned income, and spelled out the mandatory items of expenditure. The main characteristic of the new budget is an even greater cut in government spending, which still remains higher than revenue.
General parameters of the RF budget for 2017
Since 2006, the federal budget in Russia has been planned for a three-year period. This rule was violated when creating the document for 2008 and 2016, due to the peak of the crises. The current law again provides for a three-year plan state budget. The same goals and trends apply for 2017, 2018 and 2019: reducing the share of the deficit every year and lowering the inflation rate through spending cuts.
For the first time, the bill on the state budget was considered on November 18, 2016. In the context of the crisis and the tense geopolitical situation, it was clear that something would have to be sacrificed, so the State Duma passed the document further, but with great reservations. In the second reading, some adjustments were made, part of the costs of 540 billion rubles was redistributed, for example, 200 billion rubles instead of 100 were agreed on credit support for the regions.
The final version was adopted by the State Duma in the third reading, and on December 19, 2016, the President of the Russian Federation signed the law on the federal budget for 2017. Based on the forecast of GDP in the amount of 86,806 billion rubles and the expected inflation rate within 4%, the federal budget of the Russian Federation plans revenues - 13,487.6 billion rubles, expenses - 16,240.8 billion rubles. The deficit will amount to 2,753.2 billion rubles.
Oil price and exchange rate in budgeting
Since Russia continues to be a country of raw materials, that is, a significant share of income is brought by the oil and gas industries, one of the key calculated indicators is the cost of oil on the world market. The adopted budget is based on the price of $40 per barrel.
At the same time, forecasts for the price of a barrel of oil by various specialists are extremely diverse. Another drop in prices to $40 and below is the most pessimistic forecast. Since April 2016, the indicator has not fallen below this mark, but only moved up. Today, the numbers 50-55 are more pronounced, they even allow a rise to $70 per barrel. Too many factors can affect the dynamics: will the OPEC countries agree to curb the supply of raw materials, will the US resume shale oil production, will there be a recession in the Chinese economy, etc.
If, in reality, oil prices turn out to be higher than budgeted, as happened in 2016, the government will have the opportunity to partially compensate for the deficit. First of all, we are talking about replenishing reserve funds, and not about additional expenses.
Not less than important indicator when compiling the main financial document of the country is the exchange rate of the US dollar, the currency in which settlements are made for international transactions, including for the sale of raw materials. Further smooth and slight weakening of the ruble is predicted; the average exchange rate for 2017 is 67.5 rubles per dollar. On the one side, cheap ruble makes imports more expensive, which means that many consumer goods will increase in price. This leads to an increase in inflation. On the other hand, the federal budget is calculated in rubles, social payments, salaries to state employees, payment for government orders is also made in rubles. Therefore, the income from oil and gas supplies at the current exchange rate, converted into the domestic currency, is at the required level.
Expenditure
In order to simultaneously reduce inflation and reduce the budget deficit, when calculating the new document, the government of the Russian Federation took the reduction of budget expenditures as a leading principle: in 2017 by 6%, in the next 2 years by 9% and 11%. The message of the President spoke about saving funds that were irrationally spent earlier, in practice there will be a reduction in funding for most areas and priority state programs.
As a result, the following items of expenditure were fixed:
National issues - 1,135 billion rubles.
National defense - 1,121 billion rubles.
Law enforcement system - 1,270 billion rubles.
National economy - 2,292 billion rubles.
Housing and communal services - 58.2 billion rubles
Security environment- 76.4 billion rubles
Education - 568 billion rubles
Culture and cinema - 94 billion rubles
Health care - 377 billion rubles
Social policy - 5,080 billion rubles
Media - 73.4 billion rubles
Physical culture and sports - 89.7 billion rubles
Servicing the public debt - 729 billion rubles
Intergovernmental transfers - 768 billion rubles
Financing of healthcare, education (except higher educational institutions), housing and communal services will be carried out to a greater extent at the expense of regional budgets.
About 17% of federal budget expenditures are classified, and only 6% of them are related to spending on defense and national security.
What is included in public affairs
The article on national issues includes expenses for ensuring the activities of government bodies: the President, the Government, governors, etc. This includes the salaries of officials, but it is important to note that the largest funds are for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the President. The first point is explained by the presence of international conflicts and disagreements: the war in Syria, the Ukrainian conflict, relations with the West.
The federal budget for 2017 does not provide for unscheduled reserve spending. Possible expenses for liquidation of consequences of emergency situations, including natural Disasters, expenses for the implementation of urgent instructions of the Head of State are planned from the funds allocated to ensure the work of the President.
Defense and security spending
The Ministry of Finance considered the easiest option to cut budget investments in those areas in which there was the maximum increase in funding in recent years. In particular, defense spending was discussed as hypertrophied and not having a positive impact on the state of the country's economy. However, the current costs are largely a systematic solution to the task of rearming the Russian troops, set by the President several years earlier.
Many state orders were made before the crisis, and now it is more expedient to pay off as quickly as possible in order not to overpay interest and prevent an extra financial burden on the budget in subsequent years. And yet, compared to 2016, defense spending has been reduced by more than $1 trillion. rubles. At the same time, part of the costs related to the military is included in other budget items: support for military educational institutions - in education, housing for military personnel - in housing and communal services, etc.
Regarding law enforcement agencies, another reduction in the number of police officers, mainly administrative staff, by 10% is expected. But there are plans to increase wages by 5%.
State investment in the economy
The volume of investments in the national economy was reduced by another 7.5% due to the termination or reduction of funding for some state economic programs. On the one hand, the suspension of federal subsidies for certain corporations and regional projects closes the way for the development of certain industries or territories that was originally planned. On the other hand, government investments at the expense of the budget in these areas turn out to be ineffective, ideally, business investors are required, and the trend towards reducing spending on this item will continue.
So far, the following programs have suffered the greatest losses:
Socio-economic development of the Far East -50.3%,
Development of shipbuilding and equipment for the development of offshore fields for 2013-2030 -30.3%,
Energy efficiency and energy development -27.2%,
economic development and innovation economy -22,8%
At the same time, funding will continue for such companies as Rosatom (77 billion rubles), Russian Railways (68 billion rubles), the Federal Corporation for the Development of Small and Medium Enterprises (14 billion rubles). Banks will again receive subsidies: first of all, Vnesheconombank, which is on the verge of bankruptcy (150 billion rubles), Rosselkhozbank, which provides loans to agro-industrial enterprises, Sberbank and VTB as part of support mortgage lending. The regions that received the most subsidies in 2017 include Crimea, Sevastopol, the North Caucasus and the Kaliningrad region.
The fate of priority national projects
For a few recent years the Government and the President of the Russian Federation approved 45 priority government programs. The 2017 budget does not have the resources to fully implement each of them. If earlier, in accordance with the Budget Code, it was allowed to leave about 2.5 percent of all expenses conditionally scheduled, they were intended for distribution among the most important projects and programs by decision of the government or the President, then in the current financial document this rule does not apply.
But the costs for several priority projects are provided:
Development of health care - 3.84 billion rubles
Development of education for 2013-2020 - 42 billion rubles
Mortgage and rental housing - 20 billion rubles
Housing and communal services and urban environment - 10 billion rubles
International cooperation and export - 41 billion rubles
Small business and support for entrepreneurial initiative - 14.6 billion rubles
Safe and high-quality roads - 30 billion rubles
Comprehensive development single-industry towns - 6.5 billion rubles
Ecology - 20.19 billion rubles
The presence of a program on the list does not mean a sufficient amount of investment, for example, it is planned to spend 25% less funds on Healthcare Development in the 2017 budget than in 2016.
Social policy at the head of the budget
Even before the consideration of the federal budget for 2017, it was promised that the state would fulfill social obligations under any circumstances. Even with the reduction of all spending on social payments allocated 620 billion more than last year. This is due, among other things, to an increase in the number of recipients of various benefits.
The main part will go to pension payments, taking into account two indexations corresponding to the actual level of inflation. At the same time, the law on the accelerated growth of pensions for rural residents has been postponed for 3 years, which makes it difficult to improve the welfare of the poorest pensioners.
The remaining 1.4 trillion. rubles will be spent on all other benefits, the indexation of which will be 8%. The same item includes the costs of implementing the extended program maternity capital. The established amount of payment for the birth of a second child remained at the level of 453 thousand rubles.
Despite the reduction in health care costs, it is planned to continue the construction of perinatal centers, equipping children's hospitals, equipping social facilities for comfortable use by the disabled. But many projects have been put on hold indefinitely.
The revenue side of the budget traditionally consists of taxes and customs duties.
Mineral extraction tax;
Import and export customs duties on oil and gas;
value added tax;
Excises on alcohol, tobacco, fuel;
Corporate income tax.
About 37% of projected budget revenues in 2017 will come from oil and gas corporations. Last year, grain sales and tourism showed a significant increase; in 2017, a corresponding level of income from these areas is expected.
Continue to act tax holidays for small and medium-sized businesses, in general, there is a decline in the turnover of most enterprises, so the total tax collection will be lower than pre-crisis years. But since 2017, the principle of deductions from the regions of corporate income tax has changed, instead of 2%, now 3% of the fees will go to the federal budget.
In order to finance the state budget deficit, it is planned to use the reserve fund in full in the amount of 1.2 trillion. rubles and the National Security Fund in the amount of 659.6 billion rubles. This will cover two-thirds of the total deficit. The remaining amount is to be covered through internal borrowing and privatization. It is planned to place bonds of state corporations and the Bank of Russia in the amount of 1.05 trillion. rubles. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, the public debt will not exceed a safe level of 20% of GDP.
Opinions about whether the adopted federal budget will lead to a shift in the country's economic development in a positive direction differ. GDP growth in 2017 is expected to be no higher than 0.6%, which cannot be called economic growth. The main financial document of the country was created taking into account the current external political and economic circumstances. But hope remains for the settlement of interstate disputes, the lifting of sanctions, and the stabilization of oil prices at a level not lower than $50 per barrel.
The new federal budget was adopted by 355 deputies, 99 representatives of the State Duma do not agree with it, accusing it of irrational distribution of costs: excessive spending on the state apparatus and banking system, insufficient financing of the agro-industrial complex, weak support for the regions and inefficient investments in the development of the economy. The government, in turn, insists on the maximum reduction of costs. More than 60% of measures are aimed at these tasks. Looking for extra income options present time considered inappropriate. Objectively, today the Russian economy is in the process of stagnation, and without tough measures to create balanced budget impossible.
11:55 — REGNUM The State Duma adopted the law on the federal budget for 2017 and the planning period of 2018-2019 in the third, final reading, a correspondent reports IA REGNUM 9th December. The document was adopted with the participation of 47 non-parliamentary parties. 315 deputies voted "for", against - 99 parliamentarians.
Daria Antonova © IA REGNUM
GDP will grow slightly by 2019
According to the document, the budget deficit in 2017 is provided at the level of 3.2% of GDP, in 2018 - 2.2% of GDP, in 2019 - 1.2% of GDP.
Budget revenues for 2017 are projected at the level of 13.488 trillion rubles, expenses - 16.241 trillion rubles.
The projected volume of budget revenues for 2018 is estimated at 14.029 trillion rubles, expenditures - 16.04 trillion rubles, for 2019 - 14.845 and 15.987 trillion rubles, respectively.
The budget parameters are determined based on the volume of GDP of 86.806 trillion rubles in 2017, 92.296 trillion rubles in 2018, 98.86 trillion rubles in 2019, as well as an annual inflation rate not exceeding 4%, and an average annual oil price of $40 per barrel. According to the forecasts laid down in the law on the budget, the exchange rate of the Russian currency will fluctuate in the range of 67.5-71.1 rubles per dollar.
The level of public debt by 2020 will not decrease
Upper State Limit external debt will amount to $53.6 billion as of January 1, 2018, $52.8 billion as of January 1, 2019, and $53.6 billion as of January 1, 2020. Volume Reserve Fund, according to the forecast at the beginning of the year, will amount to 1.110 trillion rubles in 2018, then the reserve fund will be exhausted. Fund volume national welfare(FNB), according to the forecast at the beginning of the year, will be 4.702 trillion rubles in 2017, 4.190 trillion rubles in 2018, and 3.102 trillion rubles in 2019. The NWF will become one of the main sources of financing the budget deficit in the period 2017-2019.
Budget expenditures by sections in 2017 will amount to: national issues - 1.141 trillion rubles, national defense - 1.021 trillion rubles (under open budget items), national security and law enforcement - 1.271 trillion rubles, national economy - 2.069 trillion rubles, housing and communal services - 78.9 billion rubles, social policy - 5.092 trillion rubles, environmental protection environment - 76.7 billion rubles, education - 595 billion rubles, culture and cinematography - 99.7 billion rubles, healthcare - 378.6 billion rubles, media - 77.2 billion rubles, physical education and sports - 90.1 billion rubles, servicing the public debt - 728.6 billion rubles, intergovernmental transfers- 757.3 billion rubles.
Credit support to the regions will double
In preparation for the second reading, United Russia deputies prepared amendments for 250 billion rubles for 2017, which became possible due to the redistribution of expenses within the framework of the previously adopted budget parameters. In total, funds were redistributed by 540 billion rubles for 2017, more than 1 trillion rubles - in just a three-year period, the head of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes noted earlier Andrey Makarov("United Russia").
The amendments allocate an additional 9.2 billion rubles for financing transport infrastructure Crimea and Sevastopol. An additional 5.8 billion rubles will be allocated for the Transport item in 2017. In addition, a number of amendments are aimed at financing the road sector of the Russian Federation as part of the Safe and High-Quality Roads program - 30 billion rubles each in 2017 and 2018.
The amendments initiated by the deputies increase the credit support of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation from the federal budget by 2 times - from 100 billion rubles to 200 billion.
The regions will also receive funds in 2017 as part of a separate type of subsidy - to ensure a balanced budget. Under this article, Crimea will receive an additional 18.65 billion rubles, Sevastopol - 5.16 billion rubles. Chechnya will also become the recipient of this type of subsidies: the volume of subsidies for the republic will amount to 16.4 billion rubles in 2017.
VEB and RSHB accumulate new funds
Credit organizations will receive additional subsidies to compensate for the lost income they received from loans issued to agricultural enterprises. Subject to amendments, subsidies will amount to 21.3 billion rubles in 2017, 17.6 billion rubles in 2018 and 17.17 billion rubles in 2019.
An additional 10.638 billion rubles were allocated to support the agro-industrial complex, of which 5 billion rubles were allocated in 2017 for the additional capitalization of Rosselkhozbank (RSHB).
The budget provides for a property contribution of the Russian Federation to Vnesheconombank for the purchase by the corporation of shares in Russian Export Center JSC. total amount contribution will amount to 10 billion rubles in 2017. A norm was also adopted, according to which, by decision of the government, Russian Railways will have the right to finance in 2017 in the amount of up to 10 billion rubles for the construction of a bypassing Ukraine railway from funds of previously unused contributions of the Russian Federation to authorized capital companies for other purposes.
Monotowns and exports will be additionally financed
For the prevention of HIV and viral hepatitis, it is planned to allocate 17.68 billion rubles in 2017, 17.13 billion rubles in 2018 and 16.75 billion rubles in 2019. It is planned to allocate 25 billion rubles annually for the implementation of the program for the construction of new schools.
An additional 6.5 billion rubles will be allocated for single-industry towns, support for export-oriented industries will cost the budget 25 billion rubles, mortgages and rental housing - 10 billion rubles, housing and communal services and the urban environment - 20 billion rubles.
More than 13 billion rubles are allocated in 2017 to support small businesses through a contribution to the authorized capital of the state corporation for the development of SMEs.
1.4 billion rubles for each year of the three-year period will be allocated to support municipal houses of culture. 670 million rubles will be allocated to support the creative activities of municipal theaters in small towns in 2017, a similar amount will be provided for this purpose in 2018 and 2019.
To ensure lump sum payment in 5 thousand rubles, 10.5 billion rubles will be allocated to military pensioners. Financing of the provision of disabled people with technical means of rehabilitation is increased by 3.724 billion rubles, and this amount will be allocated both in 2017, and in 2018 and 2019. Support all-Russian organizations disabled people is increased by 150 million rubles.
As Makarov emphasized, the task was solved in the budget financial support implementation of presidential decrees: in the 2017 budget, 625.7 billion rubles plus 36.4 billion were allocated for these purposes, in 2018 - 674.2 billion rubles plus 48.5 billion, in 2019 - 650 billion rubles.
The economic situation in the Russian Federation, which has developed on this moment, is the subject of close attention from not only leading financial analysts, owners big business or small entrepreneurs, but also ordinary citizens. The crisis phenomena that are observed today in many economies of the world are aggravated in Russia by the fact that in recent years it has been under the influence of Western sanctions.The government's point of view is that this fact should not dishearten Russians. On the contrary, sanctions should be viewed as a positive phenomenon, because long-term economic isolation will help develop its own production and improve technological advances, which, in the end, will provide the country with an unprecedented economic recovery. By the way, it is already predicted in the new federal budget.
The draft document was published by employees of the Ministry of Finance of Russia on 10/12/2016, and it is he who will determine the structure of state revenues and expenditures for the next three years. The new budget is positioned as adapted to new realities, including low oil prices, declining cash reserves and "Western restrictions" on economic growth. Let's take a closer look at what was included in the new Russian budget in order to find out the government's priorities.
Innovations in the State Budget of Russia
To date, the Russian budget has not yet passed the stage of final approval. But the main innovations and figures that characterize this bill can already be analyzed.
Among the main innovations are the following points:
The government intends to return to the old practice of adopting a unified budget for a three-year period (in 2016, the Russian economy was based on a one-year financial document). According to the opinion voiced by representatives of the Ministry of Finance, this step will ensure consistency and predictability in leveling the accumulated budget imbalances;
A distinctive feature of the new document was the change in the structure of sources for financing the budget deficit. If in the current year 2/3 of the deficit was covered by funds taken from the Reserve Fund, then in the next three years, representatives of the Ministry of Finance propose to use less sovereign funds and more - borrowed funds raised on the domestic market.
The revenue part of the budget of the Russian Federation in 2017
It should be noted that the revenue part in the 2017 budget is fixed at the level of 13.44 trillion rubles and differs slightly from last year's figure. Many economists say that if inflation expectations are also taken into account, then in real terms this part of the budget will continue its downward trend. In 2019, representatives of the Ministry of Finance predict an increase in revenue to 14.8 trillion rubles, which is a nominal historical maximum for the Russian economy.
Experts note that the planned growth is explained by the weakened positions of the ruble - the quotation of 71.1 rubles per 1 U.S. $. Oil quotes included in the budget of the Russian Federation are forecasted at $40/barrel. In addition, it should be noted that in relation to the level of GDP, the revenue part will tend to decrease - in 2019 this share will be 15%.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov called ensuring income without additional tax reforms and raising the retirement age as the main goal of the government. It is quite possible that the tax sphere will undergo reforms in favor of easing the fiscal burden for business - first of all, this may affect taxes levied on entrepreneurs. Other experts attribute the government's optimism to completely different reasons.
So, for example, Lyudmila Pronina, who holds the position of professor at the Department of Economics and Finance of the Public Sector of the RANEPA, says that the forecast growth of the revenue side of the Ministry of Finance is quite realistic. But she explains the likelihood of its execution by income from taxation on mining, which the Ministry of Finance has pledged in the amount of 300 billion rubles for 2017, and 200 billion each in 2018 and 2019. The second reason she calls a possible increase in excise duties.
The expenditure side of the Russian budget
Financing of expenditure items was proposed in the amount of 16.181 trillion rubles in 2017. It is worth saying that for the next two years this indicator was announced in a slightly smaller amount. So, in 2018, expenses will amount to 15.978 trillion, and in 2019 - 15.964 trillion rubles. According to Anton Siluanov, reducing the expenditure side of the budget is the only way to ensure budget consolidation.
Recall that the costs in the budget of the Russian Federation are divided into two parts: open and closed. The first of them in 2017 is planned in the amount of 13.31 trillion rubles, i.е. 18% of all spending will be classified. This is less than in 2016, when the level of "hidden" costs exceeded 22%. Moreover, the 2016 budget was adjusted in this aspect just before our eyes. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance explained this by some plans that provide for early settlement of credit obligations defense companies.
If we consider the functional areas of expenditure item by item, we can draw the following conclusions:
It is planned to spend 5.08 trillion rubles in 2017, 4.962 in 2018 and 5.054 in 2019 for the needs of social policy. this case demonstrates a tendency to reduce social needs, explaining his actions by the need to save money;
the national economy will receive allocations in the amount of 2.3 trillion rubles in 2017. In 2018, it will be allocated 2.246 trillion, and in 2019 - 2.054 trillion rubles, that is, over the next three years, funding national economy will be reduced from 14.2% of all expenses to 12.9%. It is rather strange that with a policy of cutting spending on this item, government financiers predict a rapid economic growth for the country. It is not entirely clear what reasons this growth can provoke - in the context of sanctions and an investment blockade on foreign investment cannot be counted, and local entrepreneurs cannot afford to take bank loans due to exorbitant interest;
the needs of national defense will be financed in the amount of 950 billion rubles. This figure is an open part of the budget expenditures for this item. Taking into account closed items, which make up the gross part of defense spending, the industry will receive 2.84 trillion rubles in appropriations. In 2018, the allocations will amount to 2.72, and in 2019 - 2.856 trillion. In three years, funding will increase from 17.6% to 17.9% of the total expenditure part of the budget, which indicates a high degree of "militarization" this document. Experts emphasize that the only salvation for the country's budget is the implementation of structural reforms related to production and the reduction of military spending. Nevertheless, this recommendation of experts has been ignored by the government for many years now;
spending on national security and law enforcement is on the rise. The law enforcement agencies will receive 1.968 trillion rubles in 2017, 1.995 in 2018 and 2.007 in 2019. The share of these expenses in the budget will thus increase from 12.2 to 12.6%;
the costs associated with education, against this background, do not look so significant. The Ministry of Education can only count on 568 billion for 2017. In the next two years, this figure will increase slightly and leave 589 and 586 billion, respectively;
The health sector also does not cause particular concern for the government: in 2017, it is planned to allocate 377 billion rubles for it, and in 2018 and 2019 - 394 and 369 billion rubles each, respectively.
The analysis of hidden costs led to the following conclusions:
Government spending on so-called “other issues” will increase next year to 10% of the entire budget expenditures and amount to 1.62 trillion rubles, which exceeds the corresponding figure in 2016;
a subsection entitled “other issues” appears with enviable regularity in a dozen directions, of which it is worth noting 500 billion rubles planned for “separate subsidies” for companies and organizations and “separate intergovernmental transfers” allocated for regional budgets;
150 "secret" billion rubles will be allocated under the article "National Security and Law Enforcement Agencies";
items that include "other matters" and "hidden costs" together account for about 24% of the total expenditure Russian budget.
About the budget deficit
The budget for the next three years is planned as a deficit. In 2017, this figure will amount to 2.74 trillion rubles (3.2% of GDP). Moreover, the government has not yet adopted the document, but is already considering possible amendments to this figure - recently the Ministry of Finance proposed to increase the budget deficit to the amount of 3.03 trillion rubles. According to some forecasts of economists, this figure may reach 3.26 trillion, moving close to the mark of 3.9% of GDP.
This value will be the largest gap in the last six years. Government experts unanimously say that the budget deficit is quite expected and Western sanctions are to blame, but they are confident that all problems can be overcome by finding additional sources of income. First of all, financiers are hoping for some new military contracts that can resolve the budget deficit. At the same time, it is worth quoting the words expressed on this occasion by Vladimir Putin.
The President mentioned that to adopt a three-year budget in the current economic conditions, perhaps early, but he maintains a healthy optimism among public financiers. At the same time, if we compare income and expenses, it becomes clear that in comparison with the 2016 budget, the income planned for 2019 should increase by almost 1.4 trillion rubles, and the expenditure should decrease by 670 billion rubles. national currency.
It is also worth considering the high expenditure base of the current year. At the finish line, which has already reached the 2016 budget, the Ministry of Finance decided to increase expenditure items from 16.1 trillion rubles to 16.4 trillion. If we also take into account the fact that changes are expected in the consolidated budget schedule that will not be carried out through legislative amendments, then the total may reach 16.63 trillion rubles.
Financiers are more optimistic about the future, assuming that already in 2018 the country may reach a deficit of 2.2% of GDP, and by the end of 2019 will reduce it to 1.2%. At the same time, experts from the analytical agency Fitch say that Russia has not yet overcome its dependence on raw materials, and unstable oil prices, which so far have a characteristic downward trend, can hurt the budget filling.
State debt of the Russian Federation
As already mentioned, public financiers are planning to increase the level of borrowing in order to cover the budget deficit.
Presumably it will be mainly internal loans, which will be:
1.88 trillion rubles in 2017, which is two times higher than borrowings in 2016;
in 2018, domestic government bonds will have to give another 1.6 trillion rubles;
in 2019 - 1.7 trillion in national currency.
In addition, it is worth considering that in 2017 the maturity of the bonds, the total value of which is 829 billion rubles, is suitable. Possibly the amount of bonds placed federal loan will amount to 1.9 trillion rubles. At the same time, Anton Siluanov noted that it is necessary to receive loans from domestic investors with a certain degree of caution so that they do not demand short-term bonds from the government on high stakes.
It is worth noting that the change in the sources of financing the deficit is not accidental. In 2017, they plan to take 1.15 trillion from the Reserve Fund, which means that this source will be completely exhausted. Rumor has it that if necessary, the government will turn to money from the National Welfare Fund. According to the plans of the Ministry of Finance, this source will have to give 660 billion rubles. in 2017 and 1.14 trillion. – in 2018. As for possible replenishment these funds, it is not scheduled until February 1, 2020.
The bar for borrowing in foreign markets is dropping sharply. It is planned to attract no more than 7 billion US dollars from external sources in 2017, and in the next two - another 3 billion dollars each, which corresponds to the level of the pre-crisis years. Commenting on this fact, Anton Siluanov noted that the country could spend a year without external borrowing, but the government should maintain the level of liquidity of its Eurobonds.
In 2017, the main financial institution countries will simply refinance their expiring debts. According to the plan, in 2017 Russia will have to buy valuable papers by 7.3 billion c.u. We note right away that many experts believe that the chief financier of Russia is disingenuous. The country will refuse external loans not because it does not need them, but because of the ongoing sanctions, which concern, among other things, the sphere of lending.
The volume of the total debt of the Russian Federation by the beginning of 2020 will increase, reaching 16.6 trillion. R. (16.8% of GDP), which exceeds the level of 2016 by 1.8%. In the next three years, the total amount of public debt will remain at a safe level. Although some economists are frightened by comparing the figures for external public debt, which amounts to 55 billion US dollars, with the amount of domestic debt (almost 9 billion rubles) and the amount cash reserves, estimated at 5.5 billion rubles.
The budget issue and Chechnya
The planned budget aimed at cost savings has already caused discontent in some regions. Recall that after the draft was published, dissatisfaction with the reduction in funding for Chechnya through social network Instagram was expressed by Ramzan Kadyrov, who holds the post of head of this republic. The Kremlin responded to this statement with the help of Dmitry Peskov, who is the press secretary of the Russian president.
In his statement, Peskov noted that the country's economy is characterized by difficulties that are related not only to the federation as a whole, but also to its individual regions. The presidential speaker focused on the fact that the head of the country foresaw the emergence of discussion points, but the debate should be moved to the lower house of the Duma. The government cannot be guided by the dissatisfaction of individual federal subjects - it takes into account the interests of the entire country, despite criticism from the regions.
Not so long ago, Kadyrov said that if in previous periods authorities of the Republic of Chechnya took into account the policy of total budget savings, today he is forced to criticize budget project. Kadyrov recalled that the republic has not received funds for a long time within the framework of the federal target program concerning the restoration of the economic and social sphere of Chechnya. The reduction of the Chechen budget will not allow the republican economy to develop and will have a negative impact on social obligations.
Nevertheless, one cannot ignore the fact that during the years of Ramzan Kadyrov's leadership, Chechnya received subsidies and subsidies in the amount of 540 billion rubles from the federal budget, closing the top three Russian subsidized leaders (the first two places are occupied by Dagestan and Yakutia). The budget of Chechnya, and so on 80-87% is formed by deductions from the national budget. Moreover, according to Natalya Zubarevich, director of the regional program of the Independent Institute for Social Policy, Grozny distributes a significant part of the incoming funds in a completely non-transparent manner.
However, with a very solid amount of subsidies, the republic still manages to take 4th place among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of unemployment. Moreover, 53% of the total unemployed population are men of working age. At the same time, the level cash income The population of the republic is steadily growing, but most of them are modestly recorded under the article not “salary”, but “other income”.
In general, the budget can be safely called conservative. By at least, it certainly does not provide for any drastic measures to resolve crisis issues, so, in fact, Russia will continue to eat up the remaining reserves. State financiers say that the budget for 2017-2019 will still be adjusted, and this will have to be done annually. Experts do not predict exacerbation of external risks for the country's economy, but they talk about the possibility of aggravation of internal risks.
In many ways, the solvency of the budget of the Russian Federation depends on oil market.
Blame the already mentioned oil prices. In addition, Russia is facing presidential elections, which, according to the Ministry of Finance, makes it impossible to plan expenses in advance. Although it is a little unclear why the cost of elections cannot be calculated and included in the future budget in advance. Nevertheless, Russians are assured that everything will be fine: inflation expectations will drop by almost 3 times with GDP growth of 2.4% by the end of 2018. However, even these statements cause a certain amount of skepticism among economists.
The draft new budget is still going through the final approval stages, because the document must be approved not only by the Ministry of Finance, but also by the Ministry of Economic Development before being agreed with the State Duma deputies. At each stage, the draft document will undergo several revisions, and only after that it will be made public as approved. financial plan countries.
However, one should not count on significant changes. Most likely, Russia will enter the new “three-year plan” with a conservative budget, and the government will hope that increased oil prices will allow at least a little stabilization economic situation and raise social standards for the population.
Law on the state budget for 2017
The federal law was adopted by the State Duma on December 9, 2016 and approved by the Federation Council on December 14, 2016.Certificate of the State Legal Administration
The federal law establishes the main characteristics of the federal budget for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019. At the same time, the main characteristics of the federal budget for 2017 are determined based on the projected volume of gross domestic product in the amount of 86,806.0 billion rubles and an inflation rate not exceeding 4.0 percent. predictable overall volume federal budget revenues amount to 13,487.6 billion rubles, and expenditures - 16,240.8 billion rubles. The federal budget deficit is set at 2,753.2 billion rubles.
The federal law also approves the standards for the distribution of revenues between the budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019, the programs of state external and internal borrowings of the Russian Federation and state guarantees, determines the specifics of administering budget revenues of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation, the specifics of the execution of the federal budget and writing off certain types of debt to the federal budget.
The State Duma adopted in the third, final reading the law on the federal budget for 2017-2019. 315 deputies voted for its adoption, 99 were against, the correspondent of Rosbalt reports.
According to the document, treasury revenues in 2017 will amount to 13.488 trillion. rubles, expenses - 16.241 trillion. rubles, and the deficit - 2.753 trillion. rubles. In 2018, these figures are planned at the level of 14.029 trillion. rubles, 16.04 trillion. rubles, 2.011 trillion. rubles, respectively. In 2019, revenues will amount to 14.845 trillion. rubles, expenses - 15.987 trillion. rubles, and the deficit - 1.142 trillion. rubles.
The budget for 2017 is based on the oil price of $40 per barrel. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, such an assessment of the level of oil prices is conservative, as it is significantly lower than the current consensus forecast for oil prices.
The share of oil and gas revenues of the federal budget will continue to decline from 37.4% in 2017 to 36% in 2019. Non-oil and gas revenues relative to GDP will remain almost at stable level(9.7% of GDP in 2017-2018 and 9.6% of GDP in 2019).
In 2017, the average annual dollar exchange rate is expected to remain at the level of 67.5 rubles per dollar, in 2018 the exchange rate is predicted to weaken to 68.7 rubles per dollar, in 2019 - to 71.1 rubles per dollar.
In 2017, spending on general government issues is planned in the amount of 1.135 trillion. rubles, national defense - 1.121 trillion. rubles, security and law enforcement - 1.270 trillion. rubles, the national economy - 2.292 trillion. rubles, housing and communal services - 58.2 billion rubles, environmental protection - 76.4 billion rubles, education - 568 billion rubles, culture and cinematography - 94 billion rubles, healthcare - 377 billion rubles, social policy - 5.08 trillion rubles. rubles, the media - 73.4 billion rubles, physical culture and sports - 89.7 billion rubles, servicing the public debt - 729 billion rubles, intergovernmental transfers - 783.5 billion rubles.
In the 2017 budget, the share of secret spending is 17.1%, with 11% of it going to sections not related to national defense and security.
Net capital outflow will increase from $20 billion in 2017 to $25 billion in 2018 and 2019. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2017 the GDP growth rate will move into the positive area and amount to 0.6%, in 2018 the GDP will increase to 1.7%, in 2019 - up to 2.1%. By the end of 2017, inflation is forecast to drop to 4%.
It is predicted that the Reserve Fund will be fully depleted in 2017. The volume of the National Wealth Fund will be reduced from 4,702.3 billion rubles at the beginning of 2017 to 3,056.2 billion rubles at the beginning of 2020.
At the same time, due to significant state domestic borrowing, an increase in the volume of public debt is planned in the next three years. At the end of 2017, it will amount to 13,972.2 billion rubles, in 2018 - 15,177.1 billion rubles, and in 2019 - 16,651.9 billion rubles.
When considering the document in the second reading, the deputies redistributed 540 billion rubles for 2017 and more than 1 trillion. rubles for the period 2018-2019. In particular, it was decided to increase credit support for the subjects of the Russian Federation from the federal budget from 100 billion to 200 billion rubles. In 2017, the regions will also receive separate view subsidies - to ensure a balanced budget. Thus, Crimea will receive an additional 18.65 billion rubles, Sevastopol - 5.16 billion rubles, and Chechnya - 16.4 billion rubles.
Banks and agro-industrial complex will receive additional funds. Thus, credit organizations will be able to count on additional subsidies to compensate for the lost income they received from loans issued to agricultural enterprises. We are talking about the amount of 21.3 billion rubles in 2017, 17.6 billion in 2018 and 17.17 billion rubles in 2019. An additional 10.638 billion rubles will be allocated to support the agro-industrial complex.
Three Duma factions voted against the adoption of the budget - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and A Just Russia. “The budget is not numbers, it is the fate of people, and this Trishkin caftan cannot be patched up, it will not fit on the shoulders of huge Russia,” said, in particular, the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Gennady Zyuganov. According to him, the government gave 2 trillion to save the banks. rubles, which "spread offshore". "According to official information, out of the 800 billion allocated for investments, only 3.4% was directed to investments," Zyuganov added.
He is convinced that "the crisis will only grow." "Ticks will continue to squeeze the throat of the country and all of us," the leader of the Communist Party concluded.
State Duma deputy from A Just Russia, Alexander Burkov, said that the country is "imposed on the budget of falling Russian economy". “The parents of this budget should be deprived of parental rights,” he said. According to the deputy, when drafting the budget, the government "saved 250 billion rubles on the elderly, while it wants to squeeze 150 billion on bonuses to officials."
State Duma deputy from the Liberal Democratic Party Alexei Didenko noted that new budget did not become a "national salvation budget" and is adopted by United Russia practically without taking into account the opinions of other factions. “1 trillion. rubles was distributed by one faction, how can this budget be called the budget of national accord? - the deputy was indignant.
It should be noted that 47 extra-parliamentary parties were invited to consider the draft budget in the third reading, but they were not given the floor, but were offered to listen to the discussion on the Duma balcony.
State budget revenues in 2017
The tense global political situation makes citizens think about the future. Russia is going through hard times. The economy, one might say, is being reborn anew, and this entails the inevitability of costs in the form of a federal budget deficit. The people do not feel stable, and therefore they are already asking the question: what is the Russian budget for 2017 in numbers?When preparing the budget, take into account important factors. This is the oil and gas component, the dollar exchange rate, the general world situation. Laying articles for the next three-year period, the authorities also paid attention to the existing sanctions of foreign states against our country and Russia's response to them.
The law that determined the budget for 2016 was an innovation, because traditionally the budget is determined for the next year and planned for another 2 years. But in view of the lack of clear forecasts and constant changes (not always for the better), the government did not dare to take responsibility for predicting 3 years ahead.
However, in 2016, the authorities seem to be optimistic, because in the coming weeks Russia's budget for 2017 will be adopted and funds for 2018 and 2019 will be pledged. The federal law will come into force on January 01, 2017.
Budget revenues and expenditures
So, according to the project federal law, state revenues will amount to 13.4 trillion rubles. Expenses, in turn, 16.2 trillion. What do these numbers say? Yes, the state does not have enough money. Nominally, these are almost the numbers of 2016. Of course, inflation also matters, taking into account income, compared with previous year, will be reduced. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, the state is able to reduce costs and increase the revenue component. The forecasts are quite good: if the Russian budget deficit for 2017 is 2.8 billion, then in 2018 it will be 2 billion, and in 2019 it will be 1.1 billion rubles.
Gross domestic product next year is projected to be 86.8 billion. By 2019, it is likely to rise to 98.8 billion.
In the process of drafting the law on the budget, the authorities repeatedly emphasized that the only way to stabilize the budget is to cut costs as much as possible. Moreover, such a policy is still in effect: the expected budget deficit in 2016 was to be 3.7 billion. However, amendments have already been made to reduce this figure. Now it is a little over 3 billion rubles. It is likely that in 2017 the deficit has a chance of reducing by more than 15%.
Where to get scarce funds
In 2016, most of the deficit was covered by the Reserve Fund. Now it stores almost 3 billion rubles. In 2017, the prospects for the Reserve Fund have already been determined: it will completely dry up. Therefore, this part of the financing had to be radically changed. Now the National Wealth Fund will be involved, the value of which is 4.6 trillion. In 2017, it will empty by 0.66 trillion, and in 2018 - by 1.2 trillion. rubles.
In general, the state seeks to reduce external borrowing and prioritize domestic borrowing. In terms of external debt, the Russian budget for 2017 in dollars will stop at $7 billion, and in subsequent years the upper limit of the loan will drop to $3 billion. Moreover, according to the authorities, even these figures can be borrowed on the domestic market, in foreign currency.
Ministry of Finance in explanatory note to the draft federal budget law indicated that the general state debt in the period 2017-2019 will not exceed a safe mark of 20% of GDP.
The structure of budget expenditures
The smallest part in the structure of expenditures for 2017 is occupied by such areas as education and healthcare (3.5% and 2.3%, respectively). The government promises to reduce the number of state-funded places in universities by more than 40%. Student scholarships will also be reduced. This measure is aimed at reducing the cost of education and will entail massive layoffs of researchers and teachers. In addition, the provision of the education development program is being reduced. In 2017, it will be cut by more than 20%.
14.2% fell to the share of the national economy. It is planned to increase the entrepreneurial ability of the population, thereby restoring economic growth, support some investment projects.
The budget in the housing and communal services sector is rapidly shrinking: in 2017 it is planned to allocate 58 billion rubles to this sector, and in 2018 only 28.8 billion rubles.
The budget of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia for 2017 will amount to almost 1968 billion rubles, which is 12.2% of the share of total expenditures. However, this department is waiting for significant changes, first of all, they relate to staffing. The requirements are being tightened not only for the professional qualities of an employee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, but now the moral and psychological aspects of the personality of a single employee are playing a big role. These criteria were also introduced in part as conditions for staff reductions. By October 2017, the number of police officers may decrease by almost 10%. This means that 100 thousand employees will be left without work. Innovations will have little effect on employees working "on the ground", directly with the population (district, for example). The share of their reductions will not exceed 2%. Pleasant bonuses await those who remain in the ranks of the Ministry of Internal Affairs - a 5% increase in salary.
Since 2015, Russia has outlined a direct course to support and strengthen national defense. The military budget of Russia in 2017 will amount to 2840 billion in 2017. This is 6% less than in 2016, adjusted for inflation. It is worth noting the existence of the so-called closed, secret items in the budget. In the field of defense, 800 billion are planned for such an article. There are opinions that this money will be used for early fulfillment of obligations on loans to defense enterprises in order to save interest.
Social sphere