Speculation- this is making a profit by selling a cheap product with some markup.
This term comes from the Latin word “specio”, which means “look, observation”. When carrying out the speculation process, there is no need to carry out any specific actions with the item being resold.
History of speculation
Just a couple of decades ago, this term meant something negative and abusive. Speculation was subject to a special article in the Soviet Criminal Code, which implied punishment including imprisonment. Soviet citizens also did not like speculators - people who speculated on scarce products and foreign goods, selling these things at exorbitant prices.
The first mentions of speculative activity refer to Holland in the 17th century, where tulip bulbs were widely resold. Many residents sold their property in hopes of making a quick profit. But a century later, the situation in the country worsened and many were ruined.
IN present time speculation is an obligatory component of the modern economic market, which must perform the corresponding functions.
There are several definitions of the term "speculation". This:
- acquisition and resale of various goods at inflated prices to increase one’s own profit;
- acquisition valuable papers to sell and make a profit by obtaining the difference from the existing exchange rate on the market;
- a confirmed plan where the result is profit.
Modern economic experts claim that speculation is a kind of enrichment by realizing the difference between prices during a certain time interval. Many people nowadays are interested and continue to engage in speculative activities in the field of valuable documents, expensive metals, foreign currency, real estate, property, etc. – wherever transactions involving large amounts of money and investments are involved.
The purpose of speculation is to purchase things at a lower cost and resell them at several times the price. It is from this difference in the price of the product that the speculator’s income lies.
Speculation these days
Today, as mentioned above, people involved in speculation play an important role in the economic system of the state apparatus, because they perform specific functional duties:
- help simplify the situation during the resale of goods and securities throughout the market;
- play the role of a person who is able to compensate for the outcome of concluded contracts, which for a certain reason could not take place.
It turns out that speculation also plays the role of one of the participants in the insurance agreement, and is a kind of intermediary between the seller and the buyer of the product.
The result of the work of speculators is an increase in the number of successful transactions, improvement of relationships on economic market, as well as the eradication of rapid changes and jumps in prices in the market.
Speculators are popularly divided into “bulls” and “bears”. “Bulls” make purchases of goods in order to resell them at a higher price when the country experiences an increase in the price of these products. And the Bears, on the contrary, resell products with the expectation of buying them up at a lower price. These names are conventional and are used exclusively colloquially, since there are various types of transactions, and the same person can act as both a “bull” and a “bear”.
Today, experts in the fields of stock exchange and economics make forecasts for the future development of speculative activity as a separate unit in the field of business building.
Factors influencing the emergence of speculation
It is worth noting that there are several reasons for the emergence of speculation in the economic market. This was also influenced by a number of factors that were recorded in a specific time interval.
Change in value over time
For example, during the Great Patriotic War Works of great artists, precious jewelry, interior items, etc., which in “quiet” times would have gone on sale at a price corresponding to the market, were sold practically for nothing.
It turns out that the speculator must lead in a given period of time. Just from the implementation of one transaction, he can become a millionaire, or he can spend ten years and not find his gold mine.
Inflation
The second factor influencing the emergence of speculation is inflation. Through the process of depreciation of money, the percentage of poverty in the country increases, and even those people who a couple of days ago were immensely rich can become poor.
Political factors
The destruction of the national economy of the state, the collapse of public and private organizations can lead to the fact that the country's residents will strive for the most in a fast way resell yours valuable property. It is this time that will be the most advantageous for the implementation of speculative activities.
An unstable political system, doubts about the correctness of the actions of the current government, an imperfect state apparatus, shortcomings in the legislative sphere, incomplete and dishonest work of law enforcement agencies can lead to an immediate abandonment of long-term investments.
Citizens are no longer investing cash in business, but prefer to transfer this money to accounts in foreign banking organizations or purchase securities with them, precious metals, real estate, etc. The result of such a situation will be the emergence of a large number of speculators who will offer their own services.
Types of speculation
The Russian Federation, at one time, managed to go through all of the above factors, and it turned out that in the process of speculation several types of speculation arose:
- stock speculation;
- currency speculation;
- speculation in precious metals;
- real estate speculation.
Let's consider each type separately.
Exchange
Stock speculation arose at a time when the economy was transitioning Russian Federation appeared in the market environment a large number of public companies, in the absence of which further activity in a market environment would be impossible. These companies were companies of shareholders, insurers, public and private banking organizations, various exchange organizations, etc.
Exchange is a certain organization that has the same rights and obligations as entity, where the main thing is to create a wholesale market segment.
To carry out its activities, the exchange recruits and trains brokers (or agents), organizes places to work, maintains statistics of transactions performed, monitors existing prices on the market, and also helps resolve conflict situations that may arise in the market.
Exchanges are divided by type of exchange products:
- futures;
- agricultural;
- foreign exchange, etc.
Exchange activity involves two types of speculation: hedging and exchange. It is worth saying that these types of speculation cannot exist separately; they are complementary to each other.
- Hedging- this is a certain insurance against a negative jump in the change in the cost of a product, which is based on monitoring the dynamics of the difference between the real price on the market and futures agreements (transactions) for this type of product.
- Stock speculation is a specific way to realize profitability through trading, which is based on the dynamics of change futures transactions, directly dependent on time and place.
The work of stock speculators entirely influences compliance market value to the actual price of the product.
Foreign exchange
The currency market is the place where the process of buying and resale takes place. foreign currency, securities, check documents, etc. There are two types of this market: exchange and over-the-counter type.
By their nature, all existing operations in the field of economics and finance can be classified as speculative activities, since the reason for their occurrence is far from commercial necessity.
These transactions arise due to financial interest for reasons where an important element is speculative activity. The economic component of the country is characterized by just this kind of contracts, where the essence is to increase profitability.
It turns out that currency speculation is a certain type of activity that is aimed at realizing profit by selling valuable products at an inflated cost on a specific market, but only after a certain period of time after their purchase at the same moment, or immediately, but only in another place.
These currency manipulations have some risks:
- exchange rate - when there is a sharp change in the exchange rate;
- executive - when there is an interruption of the contract due to a “human” reason (undermining health, hostility between the agent and the buyer, etc.);
- collaborative – when employee errors are observed when recording, analyzing, monitoring and planning exchange contracts;
- technical – when there are problems in the technical component when organizing transactions;
- informational – when insufficient quantities are distributed necessary information or it is false due to the dishonesty of the exchange employees in order to independently increase the exchange rate to increase profitability.
Speculation in Precious Metals
Speculation in the field of precious metals is also common, since the work of speculators as individual investors is characterized by the degree of quotation for different precious metals.
Speculative activities with gold metals have been widely known for a long time. This type of speculation is recognized as the most reliable investment tool. But these manipulations with metals such as platinum or palladium are also extremely attractive.
An increase in the value of precious metals is always caused by a large number of speculative investments in these metals. One of important factors Experts recognize an increase in the cost of gold metals as an informational one, because this factor can affect the reaction of all partners of the contract.
Real estate speculation
Citizens who are not familiar with the current situation in the field of real estate and the increase in the cost of housing “push” all the blame onto speculators. But this fact is only partially true, since the main thing in this situation is the number of agents working in this area.
If a small number of speculators work in the real estate market, where a larger number of concluded transactions for the sale or purchase of housing are transferred to their own share, then they really influence the change in the value of real estate. But it is worth noting that this fact is illegal, and the work of these agents is regulated and punished by appropriate government agencies antimonopoly orientation.
A certain attention to speculation on the part of the state is observed in the control, opening and ensuring the operation of various exchanges, as well as drawing up a program for regulating their work.
(or loss) from the difference between the purchase and sale prices. In this case, no actions are assumed with the object of speculation. Price differences can occur in different markets at the same time (space arbitrage) or in the same market at different times (time arbitrage).
In Soviet Russia and the USSR, speculation, defined as buying and resale for the purpose of profit, was administratively or criminally punishable, depending on the volume of transactions.
Speculation in the USSR
Speculation, that is, the buying and resale of goods or other items for the purpose of profit, is punishable by imprisonment for a term of up to two years with or without confiscation of property, or correctional labor for a term of up to one year, or a fine of up to three hundred rubles.
Speculation in the form of fishing or large sizes- is punishable by imprisonment for a term of two to seven years with confiscation of property.
Petty speculation committed repeatedly is punishable by correctional labor for up to one year or a fine of up to two hundred rubles with confiscation of the items of speculation.
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Excerpt characterizing Speculation
- What a calm, how cute he describes! - she said, reading the descriptive part of the letter. - And what a soul! Nothing about myself... nothing! About some Denisov, and he himself is probably braver than them all. He writes nothing about his suffering. What a heart! How do I recognize him! And how I remembered everyone! I haven't forgotten anyone. I always, always said, even when he was like this, I always said...For more than a week they prepared, wrote brouillons and copied letters to Nikolushka from the whole house; under the supervision of the countess and the care of the count, the necessary items and money were collected to outfit and equip the newly promoted officer. Anna Mikhailovna, a practical woman, managed to arrange protection for herself and her son in the army, even for correspondence. She had occasion to send her letters to Grand Duke Konstantin Pavlovich, who commanded the guard. The Rostovs assumed that the Russian guard abroad had a completely definite address, and that if the letter reached the Grand Duke, who commanded the guard, then there was no reason why it should not reach the Pavlograd regiment, which should be nearby; and therefore it was decided to send letters and money through the Grand Duke’s courier to Boris, and Boris should have already delivered them to Nikolushka. The letters were from the old count, from the countess, from Petya, from Vera, from Natasha, from Sonya and, finally, 6,000 money for uniforms and various things that the count sent to his son.
On November 12, the Kutuzov military army, camped near Olmutz, was preparing for the next day to review the two emperors - Russian and Austrian. The guard, which had just arrived from Russia, spent the night 15 versts from Olmutz and the next day, right for the review, at 10 o’clock in the morning, entered the Olmutz field.
On this day, Nikolai Rostov received a note from Boris informing him that the Izmailovsky regiment was spending the night 15 miles short of Olmutz, and that he was waiting for him to give him a letter and money. Rostov especially needed money now that, having returned from the campaign, the troops stopped near Olmutz, and well-supplied sutlers and Austrian Jews, offering all kinds of temptations, filled the camp. The Pavlograd residents had feasts after feasts, celebrations of awards received for the campaign and trips to Olmutz to visit Caroline of Hungary, who had recently arrived there, who opened a tavern there with female servants. Rostov recently celebrated its production of cornets, bought Bedouin, Denisov's horse, and was in debt to his comrades and sutlers. Having received Boris's note, Rostov and his friend went to Olmutz, had lunch there, drank a bottle of wine and went alone to the guards camp to look for his childhood comrade. Rostov had not yet had time to get dressed. He was wearing a shabby cadet's jacket with a soldier's cross, the same leggings lined with worn leather, and an officer's saber with a lanyard; the horse he rode on was a Don horse, bought on a campaign from a Cossack; the hussar's crumpled cap was pulled back and to one side in a jaunty manner. Approaching the camp of the Izmailovsky regiment, he thought about how he would amaze Boris and all his fellow guardsmen with his shelled combat hussar appearance.
The guard went through the entire campaign as if on a festivities, flaunting their cleanliness and discipline. The crossings were short, the backpacks were carried on carts, and the Austrian authorities prepared excellent dinners for the officers at all crossings. The regiments entered and left the cities with music, and throughout the campaign (of which the guards were proud), by order of the Grand Duke, people walked in step, and the officers walked in their places. Boris walked and stood with Berg, now the company commander, throughout the campaign. Berg, having received a company during the campaign, managed to earn the trust of his superiors with his diligence and accuracy and arranged his economic affairs very profitably; During the campaign, Boris made many acquaintances with people who could be useful to him, and through a letter of recommendation he brought from Pierre, he met Prince Andrei Bolkonsky, through whom he hoped to get a place on the headquarters of the commander-in-chief. Berg and Boris, cleanly and neatly dressed, having rested after the last day's march, sat in the clean apartment assigned to them in front of the round table and played chess. Berg held a smoking pipe between his knees. Boris, with his characteristic accuracy, placed the checkers in a pyramid with his white thin hands, waiting for Berg to make a move, and looked at his partner’s face, apparently thinking about the game, as he always thought only about what he was doing.
Introduction
Relatively recently, the word “speculation” in our country was perceived in a clearly negative sense. For example, the Soviet Criminal Code contained articles punishing profiteering. And the people did not like speculators, who in every possible way gained access to scarce goods at low government prices and resold them at high market prices.
In fact, speculation is a necessary element of a market economy that fulfills certain economic functions. Speculation is the purchase of any assets (commodities, land, securities, foreign currency) on the market in the hope that their price will increase (for subsequent sale). If some buy with the expectation of an increase, and others sell, anticipating a decrease in prices, speculation performs a useful function - it reveals real demand and stabilizes the market.
The scale and social significance of speculation increases when its participants become not only professionals, but also a wider circle of people who hope to make money on the boom by investing their savings or money received on credit in speculation. Sooner or later, the speculative boom ends in collapse. The desire to buy is replaced by the desire to sell. As a rule, professionals exit the game more successfully, and masses of small investors become victims of collapse. The resulting panic could well be the beginning of a major collapse.
Thus, speculation is an integral attribute market economy and performs a number of important functions in it.
All this determines the relevance of the chosen topic of work.
The purpose of this study course work- consider speculation and determine its role in the economy.
To achieve this goal, it is necessary to study the following tasks:
Consider the concept and essence of speculation;
Explore methods of speculation;
Identify the causes of speculation;
Analyze stock and currency speculation.
The object of research is speculation.
The subject of the study is the role of speculation in economics.
The methodological basis of the work consists of such methods as methods of description and analysis.
The theoretical significance of the study lies in the concept of scientific knowledge in the field of studying speculation and its role in the economy.
Theoretically - information base The research was based on the works of scientists such as Nureyev R.M., Degtyareva O.I., Deriglazov A.D. Solodilov A.K., Drachevsky G.A. and others.
Speculation
The concept of the essence of speculation
The term “speculation” comes from the Latin word speculatio, which means stalking, looking out. IN modern dictionary foreign words the term speculation is defined as:
1) Buying and resale of various goods at increased prices for the purpose of profit.
2) Purchase - sale of exchange assets (shares, bonds, bills, etc.) in order to obtain speculative profit from the difference between the purchase and selling price(rate) upon resale of these values.
3) A calculation based on something, an intention aimed at using something for personal gain.
IN economic science The concept of speculation is defined as making a profit by taking advantage of price differences over time.
Buy low, sell high - this is the meaning of speculation. It was discovered back in the 16th-17th centuries. mercantilists - the first school in political economy. Money - commodity - money with growth: M-T-D" - this is the general formula of capital. It is important to emphasize that it is associated with risk. Speculation is an example of a conscious risk.
Speculators can be found in the markets for securities, agricultural commodities, metals, foreign exchange, real estate and many others. Currently, the main meeting place for speculators is stock exchanges.
The countries of Western Europe can be considered the birthplace of stock exchange business. It was there that the conditions necessary for the development of exchanges were formed, namely: a significant scale of production of mass replaceable goods that could be sold according to standards and samples, the growing regularity of exchange within emerging domestic markets and in trade between countries. All this gave rise to the need to create a wholesale market for these goods.
Time changes everything and confuses definitions. Those actions that were previously called speculation are now commonly called entrepreneurial. What was considered illegal in Russia in the 90s now brings in completely legal profits.
Exchange operations, which themselves were the result of market development, in turn contributed to the expansion of international trade, the acceleration of the initial accumulation of capital and thereby the transition to a developed economy. market economy. Therefore, it is difficult to overestimate the role that exchanges play in modern capitalist society. It is on the exchanges that the most major transactions. Therefore, it is not surprising that it is the exchanges that attract speculators to a greater extent, for whom there is a vast field of activity due to the huge variety of exchange instruments.
Currently, an exchange is defined as one organized at a specific location and operating under certain rules. wholesale market, on which standardized, interchangeable, freely sold products of mass demand at free prices are bought and sold at the request of the owners.
A speculator is one of the specific subjects of market relations. This is the largest group of participants in the exchange market. Although there are no official statistics on the successes and failures of speculators, some expert assessments were still produced. According to these estimates, only from 10 to 30% of the total number of speculators had a net profit in each year of their activity. But this does not prevent new groups of market participants from trying their hand at speculative operations.
A speculator in a civilized market and a speculator in the “black market” are different types. A speculator at the stage of market formation and a speculator in a mature market are also different from each other.
In the first case, he is not much different from an elementary swindler; in the second, he is a kind of corrector of normal market relations, using the difference in prices caused by differences in production and circulation costs in different regions.
Speculators are not interested in making or accepting delivery of a specific product.
Successful market operations require the development of a speculation strategy, price analysis and forecasting, and the ability to effectively manage the capital allocated for the operation.
purchase and resale of products by private individuals for profit Agriculture and consumer goods (Article 107 of the Criminal Code).
At different periods of the development of the Soviet state, S. accepted various shapes, being an expression of the resistance of the overthrown classes, the struggle of the petty-bourgeois elements with economic measures Soviet power, as well as the manifestation of the vestiges of capitalism in the minds of some people.
Operating during the New economic policy legislation, allowing within certain limits private trade, was aimed at curbing the greed of traders and their attempts to criminally profit at the expense of workers. Refusal to sell surplus grain to the state at fixed prices and sell grain was one of the forms of resistance of the kulaks to the successful construction of socialism. Implementing the directives of the XV Party Congress, the Soviet state launched a decisive offensive against the kulaks, using emergency measures—a criminal trap that granted the right to confiscate surplus grain from kulaks and speculators in court. The emergency measures had their effect: the poor and middle peasants joined the decisive struggle against the kulaks, the kulaks were isolated, the resistance of the kulaks and speculators was broken. The liquidation of the exploiting classes raised the question of responsibility for S. in a new way.
On May 20, 1932, the Central Executive Committee and the Council of People's Commissars of the USSR issued a resolution (SZ 1932 No. 38, Art. 233), which. it was ordered to prevent the opening of shops and stores by private traders and to eradicate in every possible way resellers and speculators trying to make money at the expense of workers and peasants. Collective farmers and individual farmers were allowed to trade their products at prices prevailing on the market, and collective farm associations - at a price no higher than the average commercial price in the state. trade. Based on the all-Union law on combating S. of August 22, 1932 (SZ 1932 No. 65, Art. 375) was now adopted current edition Art. 107 of the Criminal Code of the RSFSR and the corresponding articles of the Criminal Code of other union republics. The law of August 22, 1932 dealt a crushing blow to S.
As a result of these measures of the Soviet government, traders, merchants and all kinds of intermediaries were finally eliminated from trade turnover. However, the possibility of attempts to penetrate them into trade turnover was not excluded. The law of August 22, 1932 was intended to fulfill the task of suppressing S. and punishing speculators.
S. encroaches on the trade turnover of the socialist state and the interests of individual citizens. S. is completed at the time of resale of goods purchased for this purpose. If the resale is not carried out due to circumstances beyond the control of the perpetrator, but the case establishes a purchase for the purpose of resale, the perpetrator is responsible for preparing for S. To have S. resale is not necessarily required at a price higher than the purchase price. The law does not speak about the actual realized profit, but about the purpose of the profit. Therefore, the forced sale by a speculator of goods at the purchase price or even below it does not exclude liability for S, since even under these conditions the social danger of S as an encroachment on socialist trade cannot be excluded.
Officials who illegally sell goods to known speculators are liable in the aggregate for both abuse of official position and for complicity in C, and if, using their official position, they themselves purchase goods and resell them for profit, they are subject to cumulative liability for abuse of official position and for S. Persons who buy knowingly stolen goods and resell them for profit are collectively liable for both the purchase of knowingly stolen goods (Article 164 of the Criminal Code) and for S.
Examples of speculation in economics
- Making a profit (or loss) from the difference between the purchase and sale prices. In this case, no actions are assumed with the object of speculation. Price differences can occur in different markets at the same time (space arbitrage) or in the same market at different times (time arbitrage).
- Buying and selling stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, collectibles, real estate, derivatives, or other valuables to benefit from changes in their value. The purchase of the same objects for personal or production purposes, as well as for other profit-making, for example, through dividends or using decision-making mechanisms in one’s favor (insider interest), as well as operations aimed at hedging price risks or interest rate arbitrage, is not speculation. . However, this can only be determined by the internal goals of the trader, and very often all these transactions are considered speculative.
Speculation in the USSR
Speculation, that is, the buying and resale of goods or other items for the purpose of profit, is punishable by imprisonment for a term of up to two years with or without confiscation of property, or correctional labor for a term of up to one year, or a fine of up to three hundred rubles.
Speculation in the form of fishing or on a large scale is punishable by imprisonment for a term of two to seven years with confiscation of property.
Petty speculation committed repeatedly is punishable by correctional labor for up to one year or a fine of up to two hundred rubles with confiscation of the items of speculation.
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Synonyms:See what “Speculation” is in other dictionaries:
SPECULATION, speculation, female. (lat. speculatio observation, reconnaissance). 1. only units, what, with what, on what and without additional. Purchase and resale of valuables (securities, goods, some property, etc.) with a fluctuating, unequal exchange rate with... ... Ushakov's Explanatory Dictionary
speculation- and, f. speculation f. 1. philosopher, political Speculative construction. If his uncle ever made a mistake in his political speculations. then he should rank this trip among his big mistakes. 1780. A. A. Bezborodko to P. A. Rumyantsev. // Star. And… … Historical Dictionary of Gallicisms of the Russian Language
- (late Latin speculatio study). 1) trading enterprise from benefits, for profits. 2) the desire for knowledge that lies outside of experience. 3) calculation of the likely benefit of any enterprise; a subtly thought out and executed trade deal, a scam... ... Dictionary of foreign words of the Russian language
- (speculation) Buying or selling something for the sole purpose of achieving capital gain. For professional speculators, the markets for securities, financial futures and options, commodities and foreign exchange are... ... Financial Dictionary
- (speculation) Economic activity, aimed at profiting from expected changes in the prices of goods, assets or currencies. In a world of uncertainty, most transactions can be interpreted as speculative, but the term speculation is usually... Economic dictionary
- (from lat. speculatio contemplation, speculation) philosophy. a speculative construction that tries, with the help of reflection alone, without reference to the hoof and the data of other sciences, to create a general picture of the world. The idea of philosophy as S. developed already in antiquity and... ... Philosophical Encyclopedia
1. SPECULATION, and; and. [from lat. speculatio tracking, looking out] 1. Buying and resale of valuables, goods at inflated prices for the purpose of profit. WITH. summer cottages. C. currency. Birzhevaya village (financial; financial transaction, consisting in... ... encyclopedic Dictionary
Adventure; stock game; calculation, fartsovka, gesheftmaherstvo, reasoning, fartsa, speculation, intent, resale Dictionary of Russian synonyms. speculation noun, number of synonyms: 8 gesheftmachinery (2) ... Synonym dictionary
- (from late Latin speculatio peeking) in Soviet criminal law a crime consisting of buying and resale of goods and other items for the purpose of profit. It was classified as an economic crime. From the Criminal Code of the RSFSR, responsibility for S.... ... Legal dictionary
- (from the Latin speculatio, tracking, looking out), 1) purchase and sale of valuables (shares, goods, currency, etc.) with the aim of making a profit from the difference between the purchase and sale prices (rate). 2) In a figurative sense, calculation, intent , aimed at... ... Big Encyclopedic Dictionary
SPECULATION IA 1, i, g. Ozhegov's explanatory dictionary. S.I. Ozhegov, N.Yu. Shvedova. 1949 1992 … Ozhegov's Explanatory Dictionary
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