Basic concept On the possibility of using collective expert assessments in the process of real estate valuation The market is not formed under the influence of fundamental laws nature (for example, the law of universal gravitation or the so-called strong interaction of elementary particles). The market and its characteristics (primarily prices) are formed as a result of the interaction of sellers, buyers and other market participants based on their motivations, preferences, financial opportunities, expectations and attitudes towards risks, as well as the information they have. Therefore, a direct way to obtain information about internal processes and market mechanisms is to survey direct market participants. If the subjective opinions of various participants are combined into one generalized opinion of hundreds of participants from dozens of different cities, then it can be considered as a reflection of the objective state of the market. As a kind of palliative (instead of surveying the main market participants), a survey of professional appraisers who are participants in market processes and familiar with the behavior of other market participants can be used. In this survey, the opinions of various market participants are represented by appraisers who, by virtue of their profession and simply experience, know this better than others.
Goal of the project Based on individual expert assessments of the Appraisers making decisions on the basis professional knowledge, personal experience and intuition own judgments regarding parameters real estate market at the current moment and in the foreseeable future, to form collective expert assessments on various characteristics of the real estate market.
Features of the second stage Expanding the range of characteristics on which a collective expert opinion is formed Expanding the geography of experts (55 cities) and the number of experts Expert opinions in the form of intervals Differentiation of market characteristics by type of real estate Linking the parameters of real estate markets by city (13 cities have been identified for which a separate opinion is formed ) Prompt data processing (first results within a month) Publication of a reference book with methods, recommendations and sample Reports
Collective expert assessments of real estate characteristics Stage 2 of the project Stage 1 Stage 2 Number of expert appraisers participating in the project Number of cities represented in the project 3155 Number of real estate market parameters determined as a result of an expert survey 4565
Researched market characteristics (three blocks of questions) General characteristics real estate market at the time of the study. Forecast characteristics of the real estate market. Expectations of market participants for the coming year and the next 5 years. Correction factors used to bring data on analogous objects to the object of evaluation.
Real estate market parameters Discount on bargaining % Entrepreneur's profit External wear, caused by the crisis Percentage of underutilization Discounts on prices of office and retail facilities Discounts on rental rates of office and retail facilities Discounts on prices of industrial and warehouse facilities Discounts on rental rates of industrial and warehouse facilities Discounts on prices land plots for individual housing construction Discounts on the prices of land plots for multi-storey housing construction Discounts on the prices of land plots for commercial properties Discounts on the prices of land plots for industrial and warehouse purposes Discounts on the prices of agricultural land plots Discounts on the prices of residential real estate
Forecast of price dynamics in the real estate market Expected average annual growth (+) or fall (–) in prices for office and retail real estate, % per year Next year (Q2 2010 - Q2 2011) In the next 5 years (Q2 .2011 - Q2 2016) Expected average annual growth (+) or fall (-) in prices for industrial and warehouse real estate, % per year Next year (Q2 2010 - Q2 2011) In the next 5 years (Q2 2011 - Q2 2016) Expected average annual growth (+) or fall (–) in prices for residential real estate, % per year Next year (Q2 2010 - Q2 2011) B next 5 years (Q2 2011 - Q2 2016) Expected current profitability of real estate class "C" and below for the next 5 years for office space for retail space for warehouse space for industrial premises
Correction factors Adjustment per floor, in relative units Ratio of prices of office and retail space located in the basement to prices of similar objects on the 1st floor Ratio of rental rates of office and retail space located in the basement to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor floor Ratio of prices of office and retail space located in the basement to prices of similar objects on the 1st floor Ratio of rental rates of office and retail space located in the basement to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor Adjustment for floor, in relative units Ratio of prices of office and retail space located in the basement to prices of similar objects on the 1st floor Ratio of rental rates of office and retail space located in the basement to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor Ratio of prices of office and retail space located in the basement, to the prices of similar objects on the 1st floor The ratio of rental rates of office and retail space located in the basement to the rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor The ratio of rental rates of office and retail space located on the second and above floors to rental rates of similar facilities on the 1st floor Ratio of prices of industrial and warehouse facilities located in the basement to prices of similar facilities on the 1st floor Ratio of rental rates of industrial and warehouse facilities located in the basement to rental rates of similar facilities on the 1st floor floor The ratio of the prices of production and warehouse facilities located in the basement to the prices of similar facilities on the 1st floor The ratio of rental rates of production and warehouse facilities located in the basement to the rental rates of similar facilities on the 1st floor
Completion of the second stage of the project Distribution of short Reports with the results of processing to participants (experts) Development of recommendations for the use of collective expert assessments of market parameters in the process of real estate assessment Development of a fragment of the Assessment Report illustrating the possibilities of using expert assessments in the Report Publication of the Directory with all materials - February 2011
What does the implementation of the project provide? Information about processes in the market, features in regions, trends, what the market thinks about all this. Allows evaluators to rely on the general opinion of the evaluation community. This helps and protects the appraiser. Limits unscrupulous appraisers from manipulating the parameters used in the assessment (according to the expert opinion of the appraiser...).
"Real Estate Appraiser's Handbook" edited by Leifer Lev Abramovich, third edition, updated and expanded, in 2 volumes, 2014, set of two books.
The information presented in the third edition of the directory is based on materials from a survey of about 200 leading appraisers from 52 cities in Russia. The directory contains characteristics of the real estate market and adjustment factors used by appraisers when valuing real estate.The directory is intended for use in the process of real estate valuation. It may also be useful to market research professionals and students economic specialties and specialists undergoing professional retraining in the specialty “Property Valuation”.
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· Problem information support work on real estate valuation and ways to solve it.
· Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market. Conceptual provisions.
· Project to create collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market - 2013.
· Additional comments in connection with questions that were often asked by the authors of the project.
· Presentation of statistical processing results and their interpretation.
· Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market. Discounts for bargaining.
· Collective expert assessments of correction factors (adjustments). Short description.
· Low-class office and retail facilities.
· Low-class production and warehouse facilities.
· Agricultural facilities.
· Class A and B business centers.
· Apartments.
· Residential buildings and cottages.
Volume 1:"Correcting factors for comparative approach".
Publication cost - 1600 rubles. Book's contents:Volume 2:"Market Characteristics and Forecasts for the Income Approach."
Publication cost - 900 rubles. Book's contents:Hidden text. Available only to registered users.
The second volume of the Handbook contains updated information that can be used when implementing income approach methods in real estate valuation, including: data on operating expenses for various types of real estate, data on the degree of underutilization of real estate when leasing them, which may be useful when forecasting cash flows. Profitability data is also provided. real estate, gross annuity multipliers, about the expected profit of the entrepreneur, which are usually used to determine the discount rate within the income approach. In addition, the Directory contains parameters characterizing the expectations of market participants regarding further price dynamics in various segments of the real estate market.
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The Volga Center for Financial Consulting and Valuation invites professional appraisers to take part in the 2nd stage of the project to form collective expert assessments of real estate market parameters, necessary in the process of providing real estate valuation services. Within the framework of this project, it is expected to collect the opinions of appraisers regarding market parameters, analyze, process them in accordance with the rules and methods of expert assessment and form collective expert assessments on the parameters necessary for appraisers, reflecting the opinion large quantity professional appraisers from various cities and regions Russian Federation. Unlike the 1st stage, in accordance with the comments and suggestions made by the evaluators during the subsequent discussion of the results, at the 2nd stage the list of parameters is significantly expanded.
In this regard, I ask you to fill out the attached forms and send them electronically to: *****@***ru with the subject “expert survey” until November 15.
We express our gratitude to you in advance.
All Appraisers who took part in the project and sent the requested data will be sent short Reports with the results of processing, which they can use in their assessment work.
Scientific director of the project
[Download survey forms]
Information support for the project on the Internet:
[Labraith Library. Ru] [ESMI ". Appraiser's Bulletin"] [Appraiser's Register] /
[Questions and discussion online]
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE SECOND PHASE OF THE PROJECT
Today, the Russian Appraiser works in conditions of lack of information, and he is forced to compensate for this deficiency by including correction factors, forecast characteristics and other parameters of the real estate market, reflecting his personal point of view, in calculations for the assessment of real estate objects. The unjustifiably inflated subjective component introduced by the Appraiser into the assessment process casts doubt on the objectivity and reliability of the final assessment stated by the Appraiser in the assessment report. In order to to some extent overcome the difficulties arising from the lack of information, reduce the influence of the subjective factor on the result and promote the unity and comparability of assessment results, it is proposed to create a single set of such parameters that reflect the collective opinion of professional Appraisers working in different regions of the Russian Federation.
Objective of the project: Based on individual expert assessments of individual Appraisers, who, on the basis of professional knowledge, personal experience and intuition, make personal judgments regarding correction factors, parameters of the real estate market at the current moment and in the foreseeable future, to form collective expert assessments of the parameters of the real estate market, often used by Appraisers in the process of their assessment activities.
Project content. The basis of the work is to identify opinions regarding the market parameters of actively working Appraisers who perform the functions of experts in this project. To implement this project, a standardized questionnaire with questions was developed. Data processing includes checking the consistency of expert judgments and forming a group opinion based on statistical processing of expert information. Materials are processed by a group of analysts.
Brief results of the first stage. This stage is a logical continuation of the work performed at the first stage, in which more than 100 experts - professional Appraisers from 30 constituent entities of the Russian Federation took part. Appraisers from Moscow, Novosibirsk, and Tyumen took the most active part. General conclusions based on the results of the expert survey, tables with data, the meaning and interpretation of the parameters being assessed and brief recommendations for their use are presented in electronic media and published in the journal “Register of the Appraiser”. In addition, the main results, presented in the form of tables, were sent to all Appraisers who took part in the survey (albeit with a delay, for which we deeply apologize).
We do not have exact data on how many Appraisers there are this moment use the results of this survey. However, based on requests to us and discussions in electronic media, we can conclude that these materials have found wide application and have proven useful to many Appraisers. Some comments were made, most of which boiled down to a proposal to expand the list of parameters being assessed. We have carefully reviewed the comments received and taken them into account as far as possible.
First refers to market characteristics that are difficult, and sometimes impossible, to determine by calculation based on market statistics. This primarily applies to the forecast parameters that the Appraiser includes in his calculations. At the same time, the project developers proceed from the fact that, of course, no one can know exactly how the market will actually develop in the future. But the market value of an object at the moment is determined by what the market “thinks” about it today. This means that for a correct assessment market value The appraiser needs to correctly “guess” the expectations of market participants regarding how rental rates will change and what the expected trajectory of property prices is in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the opinion of each Appraiser, who not only records Current state prices on the market, but also influences them with his assessments, is extremely important for determining the general mood and expectations in the market. If there is a sufficient amount of information, it seems possible to obtain correct estimates of parameters that reflect the general perceptions of market participants about its further development. Therefore, the table should include the personal expectations of the survey participant for the future development of the real estate market.
To the second group These are market characteristics that reflect investors' current ideas about the required profit, risks, etc. These characteristics are very important for determining the diagnostic rate, capitalization rate and profit of the entrepreneur. At the same time, for regions for which there is sufficient data (at least 8), such characteristics will be calculated separately.
Third group includes parameters that are used as adjustments within the comparative approach. These parameters are usually calculated by each Appraiser using the paired sales method. However, as a rule, the Appraiser does not have sufficient data, and therefore the adjustments he uses may not always be considered sufficiently convincing. At the same time, since in many cases such adjustments are not specific to the region, there is a fundamental possibility of combining them (generalizing) and obtaining more accurate estimates of the adjustment parameters that combine more complete information.
Processing expert survey data. The project involves the use of special data processing methods, including interval mathematics methods, since expert data is presented in the form of intervals. Please note that survey participants must indicate the minimum and maximum value parameters. Subsequent data processing presupposes the presence of such information.
Project implementation results. Based on the collected data, it is planned to prepare a Report with a detailed analysis of all information. This Report will contain the results of data processing using modern methods mathematical statistics. The processing results will be presented in the form of tables, graphs, histograms, convenient for use in the process of evaluation and preparation of Reports. Brief reports with the results of processing will be sent to all Appraisers who took part in the project and sent the requested data. Appraisers will be able to use the results presented in this Report in their assessment work.
Further development of the project. It is planned to conduct a periodic survey with the publication of a Report with the results of processing regularly, with an interval of 6-12 months. In addition, if this project is supported by a sufficient number of Appraisers, at subsequent stages the list of parameters will be supplemented with multipliers and other characteristics used in business assessment.
Features of the second stage of the project:
· Taking into account the comments and suggestions of Appraisers using the values of real estate market parameters published based on the results of the first stage, the list of parameters subject to survey has been expanded.
· Subject to an increase in the number of experts participating in the survey, it is expected to present collective expert assessments differentiated by region.
· Along with the publication of tables with the values of real estate market parameters, recommendations will be developed on how to use these data in the process of performing assessment work and preparing a report.
· Special attention will be devoted to the development of procedures to improve the accuracy of mass assessment based on the use of expert information.
"Real Estate Appraiser's Handbook" edited by Leifer Lev Abramovich, third edition, updated and expanded, in 2 volumes, 2014.The information presented in the third edition of the directory is based on materials from a survey of about 200 leading appraisers from 52 cities in Russia. The directory contains characteristics of the real estate market and adjustment factors used by appraisers when valuing real estate.
The directory is intended for use in the process of real estate valuation. It can also be useful to specialists involved in market research, students of economic specialties and specialists undergoing professional retraining in the specialty “Property Valuation”.
SpoilerTarget"> Spoiler: The Real Estate Appraiser's Handbook includes the following sections:
· The problem of information support for real estate valuation work and ways to solve it.
· Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market. Conceptual provisions.
· Project to create collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market - 2013.
· Additional comments in connection with questions that were often asked by the authors of the project.
· Presentation of statistical processing results and their interpretation.
· Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market. Discounts for bargaining.
· Collective expert assessments of correction factors (adjustments). Short description.
· Low-class office and retail facilities.
· Low-class production and warehouse facilities.
· Agricultural facilities.
· Class A and B business centers.
· Apartments.
· Residential buildings and cottages.Volume 1:"Adjustment Factors for the Comparative Approach."
Publication cost - 1600 rubles.year 2014. Correction factors for the comparative approach. Third edition (updated and expanded). 258s. ISBN 978-5-901956-79-3.
Volume 2:"Market Characteristics and Forecasts for the Income Approach."
Publication cost - 900 rubles.The second volume of the Handbook contains updated information that can be used when implementing income approach methods in real estate valuation, including: data on operating expenses for various types of real estate, data on the degree of underutilization of real estate when leasing them, which may be useful when forecasting cash flows. Data are also provided on the profitability of real estate, gross rental multipliers, and the expected profit of an entrepreneur, which are usually used to determine the discount rate within the framework of the income approach. In addition, the Directory contains parameters characterizing the expectations of market participants regarding further price dynamics in various segments of the real estate market.