The higher the period of the moving average, be it SMA 20, EMA 60 or EMA 100, the more long-term and stable the trend this indicator will show you; however, the accuracy of the signals will slightly decrease, so you should not choose heavy moving averages, for example, EMA 500.

Use two or three easy moving averages, for example, EMA 8, EMA 13, EMA 21, to trade as efficiently as possible. You will quickly respond to all changes in the market trend, which in 90-95% of cases is predicted by the Moving Average absolutely correctly.

Today there are a lot of indicators without redrawing, for example, AutoTradeForecaster.

Many indicators, especially arrow ones, are prone to redrawing, but your task is to use those that quite accurately show the turning point of the price trend. It's quite simple. The red line is a downward trend, and the blue line is an upward trend. The signals are very reliable and accurate, so take this indicator into your service.

Features of the main market trends

Determining the current market trend underlies many trading strategies. Each type of trend has its own character traits. An important aspect for studying the possibility of their continuation is the price behavior relative to the main levels limiting the trend.

The process of development of technical analysis, widely used in financial market, is associated with the emergence of special techniques and methods that make it possible to predict with high reliability the future dynamics of price movements.

The meaning of graphs

The main component of such an analysis is the graph. It can be studied at different time intervals. They can last weeks and months, or they can be very short, from one tick to several minutes. Due to the development of computer and Internet technologies, intraday charts have become the most popular. Information is accessed online and all participants can trade remotely. Classic techniques are designed for the long term, but due to the development of short-term trading, they began to adapt to intraday methods. It is with the help of charts that you can successfully determine current trends in the market.

Main trends

The main task of the analysis is to identify the trend, its strength and duration. This is necessary in order to subsequently follow it in the form of opening corresponding transactions. There are three main types of trends: upward, downward and horizontal. They are called trends. The first of these trends is characterized by a series of increasing local peaks, the second by a series of decreasing minima, and the third by no clear direction. The most effective transactions are those carried out in the direction of upward and downward trends. Most trading strategies are based on trend trading.

Horizontal trend

The horizontal trend, despite its apparent inaction, is a very important market condition called consolidation. Price changes occur within a certain range. This is a kind of pause when the participants are indecisive. This period may be followed by a continuation of the previous trend, or a reverse trend that may have greater strength. Such periods in the market make up a significant portion of the time. At this time, methods based on following the trend are ineffective. However, there are a number good strategies, which are designed for trading within a horizontal range. They are quite safe, since a sharp market reversal cannot occur at this time. During this trend, prices still make oscillatory movements. And traders can buy close to the support line, which is the lower level of the range, and sell near the upper limit, called resistance. And also do the reverse operations.

During a period of consolidation, it is very important to determine the future development of the market. And figure out what the long horizontal movement symbolizes. Typically, the breakout point at the price of the main levels that define the price horizontal corridor takes on significance. There are also methods that help determine the market volume; if it is concentrated closer to the resistance level, then an upward trend is emerging, but if it is near the support line, a downward trend is more likely.

What is testing

If the price is repelled by the main levels, this means that they are strong enough. This process is called "testing". The price will bounce back from support several times in the event of an uptrend. If this process was preceded by a downward trend, then there is high probability When a trend ends, it loses its strength.

With the opposite trend, the dependencies persist in the opposite direction. For resistance, the formation of each subsequent peak is important. This is a barrier that is always located above the market. Analysts often say that the price is approaching resistance. This means that it reaches the value when the previous maximum was indicated. For analysis, it matters at what level the next peak is formed; if it is located above the previous one, it means that the upward trend continues; if it is lower, it may change.

It's difficult to accurately predict the future, but you can try to understand where the modern financial world is heading. Seventy-five years ago, the World's Fair was held in New York City, where the public saw a new and unknown technology called television. Back then, many people didn't know what to do with television, and the New York Times argued that television would not be of interest to the average American family because people needed to sit and keep their eyes glued to the screen all the time.

Today, humanity has learned to better analyze trends and predict the future. Of particular interest are forecasts for the development of the capital market, since this area has a high degree of unpredictability. Experts identify three current trends that will drive markets in the coming years and are good indicators for smart investors.

First global trend These are demographic changes in the world community and the aging of the world economy.

Humanity began to age quickly, people began to rest more and take care of their health. This led to a shorter working period and fewer weekly working hours. Many people began to try to retire earlier in order to calmly use their accumulated assets. Pension funds and long-term savings programs made it possible to accumulate enough funds for a comfortable old age. But the aging of the planet's population is leading to a transition of the financial world to a new level and dramatically changing market priorities. The number will increase in the future pension savings and retirees seeking a fixed income, creating a structural imbalance in the sector. Therefore, the yield on bonds, real estate and other assets will be significantly lower. These phenomena can already be observed in the USA, Japan, Europe and China, where the population is aging rapidly and declining work force. Investors will look for greater returns in bond funds or use a diversified strategy. But they'll all have to use Insurance companies, and those will have to look for additional funding.

Second world trend is urbanization and reurbanization.

People began to move more, migrating from villages to cities. High rates of urbanization are observed in developing countries, but in the USA and European countries there is also a rapid merging of suburbs and cities. Experts believe that reurbanization is associated with the priorities of young people who do not want to live in the suburbs and are trying to change their lifestyle. Many of them prefer an urban lifestyle and this trend will only grow. Demographic changes have led to more people renting homes than buying them. The rental housing market will be more important to investors than the mortgage market at this time.

The third global trend is too much production of goods.

Since the second half of the twentieth century, there has been a tendency to oversupply goods and industrial production. Increased productivity and urbanization of industry have dramatically changed pricing policy many companies. Global markets are experiencing a significant deflationary trend, and new technologies such as 3D printing are only exacerbating this problem. Some experts believe that the observed excess commodities is controversial. But if you consider the entire production cycle of goods, you will notice an increase in offers for many types of products. This is especially evident in the energy, metallurgical and food industries. High prices for many goods led to greater savings in consumption and increased supply in the markets.

Investors need to remember that the world of tomorrow will be very different from today. At the same time, capital markets are an integral part of this evolution, so by analyzing trends and challenges, solutions for future investment can be quickly developed.

2. Basic analysis

2.2. Analysis of market trends and market environment

Knowing market trends is always important, but it is especially important for developing marketing plans. Ultimately, the company will decide which markets to serve that can generate large volumes of sales, both in the short term and in the long term. In the process of marketing planning, it is determined at what stage of development the markets are, which allows for the correct allocation of resources. The study of market trends, resulting in the construction of an overall picture of the market, consists of an analysis of the actual trends and market statistics.

Any organization has factors over which it has no direct control, but which affect the company itself and its performance. commercial activities. These include social pressures, laws, regulations, policies, technological change, economic booms and busts, as well as more nuanced factors related to the activities of suppliers and competitors. All together they make up market environment.

Market trends

Market can be defined as a collection of people or companies who require specific products or classes of products and who have the ability, desire and authority to acquire them. The market can be divided into segments: each segment - it is a group of buyers with similar characteristics, resulting in them having relatively similar product needs.

To make smart strategic decisions, a company must have quantitative information about market trends. Next, you should look at the potential financial value of the market to the company. Below is a list of major market trends that should be considered during the marketing planning process.

Sales: volume.

Sales: turnover.

Profitability.

Market size.

Market shares.

Number and size of buyers.

Number of main competitors

State of the market environment

The market environment can be defined as the set of external forces that directly or indirectly affect an organization's revenue generation and output. In other words, these forces represent various aspects that are largely outside a company's control, but which can have a tangible impact on how the company conducts business and accomplishes its missions.

Most companies have some understanding of the state of their business environment, but this information is often not communicated to other members of the organization. This type analysis ensures the collection of information and its use in developing a marketing strategy.

To track changes in the market environment, firms must regularly survey and analyze it. In some companies, this is done by individual employees or entire committees, whose function is to collect and verify data on market trends and various aspects of the market environment. For example, one manufacturing organization has a small committee whose regular meetings discuss all aspects of the market environment. Updates are posted on a notice board open to all staff.

Environment survey - is the process of obtaining information from observations, secondary sources (primarily trade press and government reports), databases, information services and marketing research.

Typically, the market environment is divided into two main areas: the macro environment and the micro environment.

Enterprise microenvironment- these are the entities with which the enterprise constantly and directly interacts. Elements of the microenvironment are those aspects that are characteristic only of individual companies or organizations, and not of the market as a whole. The degree of control a company has over these factors is usually small.

The elements of the microenvironment include:

Direct and indirect competition

The nature and level of competition in a given product area from similar products is very important. In general, it is necessary to assess the degree of stability of the competitive situation. The emergence of several new competitors can radically change the status quo in the market.

Supplier Influence/Power

Most companies prefer independence and try to control their suppliers if possible. Control cannot always be exercised: suppliers, especially when there are few of them or when the products they supply are unique or new, can wield a lot of power. The risk posed by such suppliers can be reduced through cooperation, which requires the development of long-term relationships. The issue of assessing the company's relationship with each supplier should be approached with caution so as not to unnecessarily reassure oneself.

Availability of resources

The resource base - equipment and materials, finances, people, time and reputation - is usually controlled by the organization itself. However, there may be circumstances when market trends and the market environment help strengthen or, conversely, weaken the resource base. For example, it may be influenced new practice work in the industry, legislation, change banking procedures, pressure and demand from buyers. Any changes that may affect resource availability must be monitored.

Purchasing power consumers

Consumer demands and perceptions must be constantly monitored, especially since purchasing power can be positively or negatively affected by market trends. For example, with the increase in the number of companies offering great value motor insurance, the power of buyers has increased: they can now buy insurance easier and cheaper than before. The results of such changes have a significant impact on the organization's activities, so the likelihood of such things as changes in buyer power should always be monitored.

Macro environment of the enterprise- these are factors that your company does not directly face, but which, nevertheless, have a serious impact on its activities. The macro environment has two important features:

· it influences not only the enterprise itself, but also the microenvironment: competitors, partners, clients;

· the enterprise cannot influence the macroenvironment.

Elements of the macroenvironment include:

Legal forces

Many laws affect marketing activities; for example, UK companies must operate within competition and consumer laws. In this sense, the rules adopted in the European Union and within the framework of the North American Free Trade Agreement have a huge impact.

Regulatory forces

Interpretation of laws is important; the same applies to knowledge of the roles of various government ministries and local authorities, as well as non-governmental regulatory bodies such as the General Agreement on Customs Tariffs and Trade of the Atlantic Union, industry and professional associations.

Political forces

Many companies consider government actions to be outside their sphere of influence, while others actively engage in lobbying and influence political and legislative bodies of central and local authorities. Based on this, it is also necessary to understand the possible impact of lobbying by others. You should monitor possible changes in the political arena.

Social forces (culture)

These are the dynamics and activities of society: groups and individual citizens do not notice the actions of companies until they affect their lifestyle and choices. Perhaps the most notable recent example is consumer pressure on companies to produce products that are less harmful to environment products, produced less waste and made their production cleaner.

Technological forces

Technological forces refer to the knowledge and experience required to perform tasks and achieve goals. Technology is rapidly evolving and undergoing constant change, influencing the way people satisfy their needs and driving their lives. This applies to production, distribution, communications and sales technologies. This determines what products firms can offer to the market and how they will present them to customers.

Economic situation

General state The economy - recession or boom - affects any market, as well as the demand of buyers and their willingness to spend money. This important aspects that any company should consider. The need for close attention to them is also dictated by the fact that such aspects are subject to rapid changes, styles and fashion.

To analyze the macroenvironment of an enterprise, secondary information is used, which can be obtained from publications of the State Statistics Committee and its regional divisions, from newspapers and magazines, and the Internet (including on industry portals, websites of specialized companies, etc.). After collecting the information you need, you need to evaluate each document for the accuracy and relevance of the information it contains, and check the data for consistency with other information at your disposal.

To analyze the microenvironment of an enterprise, secondary information from the sources listed above, as well as data collected at industry exhibitions, can also be used, but it is additionally recommended to collect primary data on customers, suppliers, and competitors. To do this, you can use the two most popular methods of collecting primary data - observation and survey.

Effective market activity is impossible without a comprehensive, comprehensive analysis of the current state of the market and forecasting the dynamics of further changes in its conditions. Marketing tools allow you to most fully study the state of the market and make a reliable forecast of its development.

Market conditions (from Lat. Conjungere - I connect, connect) is the state of the market or a specific economic situation, prevailing on the market at the moment or for a limited period of time under the influence of a complex of forces, factors and conditions.

the main objective studying market conditions - determining the nature and degree of its balance, primarily the relationship between supply and demand.

The situation is measured by a certain range of qualitative and quantitative characteristics that can be measured and assessed. These features of the market situation can only be realized with sufficiently complete statistical information about the state of the market.

Market conditions have three fundamentally distinctive features: variability, cyclicity, dynamism. The market is inherently prone to spontaneity, and therefore is subject to fluctuations, both random and constantly occurring: cyclical and seasonal. Therefore, assessments of variability, characteristics of the development cycle, and gradations of market conditions are a necessary condition for marketing activities for making commercial decisions.

The need to study market conditions is determined by the essence of modern marketing, its clearly expressed orientation towards the interests of the market. Therefore, market analysis is an important component of marketing analysis and marketing research in general. It has a strong impact on all stages of the marketing cycle. The company's position in the market, its chances for commercial success, the choice of strategy and marketing activities largely depend on external conditions and, in particular, on market conditions.

The market environment has four fundamentally distinctive features. Consequently, market analysis should reflect these four characteristics:

Analysis of dynamic patterns, trends;

Proportionality of development;

Analysis of market stability, its assessment in statics and dynamics;

Analysis of the repeatability of market development, identification of cycles.

The market, the scale of which develops in space, develops in time. Dynamism is the most important property of the market, its ability to renew itself, grow or contract, or remain stable. Characteristics of changes in market parameters, trends in its development, and expansion prospects are the first task of market analysis. The spatial limitation of the market is manifested: firstly, in the number of its participants, secondly, in the volume of transactions, thirdly, in its hierarchical structure. There are four levels of the hierarchical structure of markets: international, federal, regional, municipal (local).

The spontaneity of the market, although limited within certain limits by marketing, remains its main feature. It is, as it were, embedded in the market mechanism. Changes in the basic parameters of the market at certain periods of time occur at different speeds, which leads to short-term or longer-term disturbances in the proportionality of the market process, to deviations from the main development trend. The desire of supply and demand to balance manifests itself as a tendency aimed at overcoming emerging imbalances, manifesting itself in the form of constant fluctuations in time and space.

The state of the market can be characterized through a system of quantitative and qualitative indicators, each of which reflects a certain aspect of the market situation.

The main indicators of market conditions are the following:

market scale- its capacity, the volume of transactions for the purchase and sale of goods (trade turnover), the number of enterprises of various types operating on the market;

degree of market balance- the relationship between supply and demand;

market type- (competitive, monopolistic, etc.);

market dynamics- (changes in the main market parameters, their vectors, speed and intensity, main trends);

degree business activity - (volume of the company’s business portfolio, number and size of orders, volume and dynamics of transactions, etc.);

level of stability of the main market parameters in dynamics and space(economic – indicators);

market risk level(assessment of the probability of being defeated in the market);

strength and scope of competition(number of competitors, their activity);

market cyclicality(market position at a certain point/stage of the economic or seasonal cycle);

average rate of profit(sum of gross and net profit and profitability indicators).

Just as the commodity market is a component market economy, the commodity market situation is part of the general economic situation. Many processes in the commodity market are explained or caused by the situation in other markets. Therefore, an in-depth study of the product market should be comprehensive, linked to assessments of different types of markets: valuable papers, services, investments, real estate, labor, etc. The securities market is sensitive to market fluctuations in the commodity market. Such comprehensive assessments serve as the basis for attempts to build an integral model of the situation - an economic barometer.

Market analysis

Analysis of market conditions should begin with a description of the scale and type of market. The scale of the market is determined by the volume of goods sold, as well as the number and size of firms acting as sellers in it. Firms are ranked by size and ownership, as well as by their market share. The qualitative characteristics of the share (large, medium, small, etc.) are derived from a comparison of the share owned by the company and the share of its largest competitors.

The assessment of the scale and type of the market is complemented by a characteristic of the market potential, which determines the possibilities of product supply and consumer demand. Market potential is divided into production and consumer. Production potential determines the maximum capabilities of the product supply. Accordingly, consumer potential is determined by the magnitude of demand and the dynamics of its possible changes.

The second most important characteristic of the market is its balance. The characteristics of market balance are determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Balance, or equality of these two main categories, does not occur very often; the relationship between them is constantly changing. This, in particular, is one of the manifestations of the spontaneity of the market. The balance or imbalance of supply and demand determines the type of market (seller's market or buyer's market). To analyze market balance, various methods are used: balance sheet, ratios of dynamics indicators, indirect - using indicators, informal and expert assessments. The difficulty of analyzing market balance lies in the fact that if product supply is a documented indicator, then demand cannot be directly assessed (demand is a potential category that exists in the mind of the buyer and in his wallet). Of course, the main patterns and trends in demand can be judged by commodity turnover (realized demand) or purchasing funds of the population, but in fact, demand, for a number of reasons, may not significantly coincide with it. Still, imputations must be taken into account.

The essence of the calculation is as follows: the volume of product supply is determined (based on data on the receipt or actual sale of goods), and a calculation is made of the purchasing funds of the population (income adjusted for the increase in savings minus obligatory payments). After determining the product supply and demand in this way, they are made comparative assessment and a conclusion is drawn on the balance of the market.

Inventory are sensitive to any changes in the relationship between supply and demand. An excess of demand over supply causes a reduction in inventories, and an excess of supply over demand (or their qualitative discrepancy) is immediately accompanied by an increase in inventories (overstocking). Balancing supply and demand is a necessary condition for stability commodity markets. Inventory in in this case serve as an indicator of market conditions.

An important element of market analysis is the analysis of trends in the development of market conditions. Market development trend is an economic and statistical concept that characterizes the pattern of changes in its main parameters over time. The essence of the analysis is to determine quantitative estimates and models of market dynamics that characterize changes in the market situation: growing/developing market, stable (developed) market, declining market.

To determine the vector and speed of market development, dynamic series of indicators characterizing the main parameters of the market are constructed, and then the growth rate is calculated. Market development trends are determined based on an analysis of changes in its main indicators (supplies, sales, prices). Dynamic series or their graphical representations (diagrams) are visually examined, and on this basis a descriptive characteristic of trends is given.

The dynamic development of the market is characterized by the phenomenon of cyclicality, that is, the repetition of trends and intensity of development. This phenomenon is due to external factors, and the deep, internal properties of the market. There are intra-annual, seasonal cyclicalities and economic cyclicalities that span several years and reflect the patterns of the market mechanism. Market cyclicality is changes in the level, vector, speed and nature of its development that regularly repeat over time.

Seasonal cyclicity is due to the seasonality of agricultural production and seasonal and climatic changes in consumer needs. The simplest way to identify seasonal fluctuations is to calculate the seasonality index, which is defined as the ratio of each level to the corresponding average calculated for a year or several years. The seasonality index shows actual fluctuations in market parameters corresponding to certain seasons.

The second type of market cyclicality is economic cyclicality. According to economic theory In its development, the market goes through a series of cycles, replacing each other according to the principle: rise - decline - rise, etc. The rise of the market leads to its oversaturation, a sales crisis (overproduction), which is replaced by depression, a decrease in business activity, a recession, which gradually turns into a revival and rise of the market. The method for identifying market cyclicality includes the following fundamental operations: at the first stage, market parameters that exhibit the greatest fluctuations are selected, and their time series or their graphical representations (diagrams) are constructed. Analysis, which allows us to draw conclusions about changes in the main market processes and their movement through the phases of economic cycles.

Making effective commercial decisions is based not only on an analysis of the current environment, but also on the forecast of its further changes. Market forecast is a scientific forecast of the prospects for the development of demand, product supply, prices, carried out within the framework of a certain methodology, based on reliable information, with an assessment of it possible error. There are groups of forecasts, the basis of which is: extrapolation of a series of dynamics, interpolation of a series of dynamics, calculation of elasticity coefficients of demand, prices and product supply, economic and mathematical modeling, structural modeling, expert assessments, analogy.

Forecasting market elements by extrapolation time series it is the transfer of patterns and trends from the past to the future. The technical method of extrapolation is to extend the current time series of demand, product supply or prices for a certain future. It is assumed that all factors that determine changes in a particular market element are constant over time. When this assumption is correct, extrapolation provides fairly accurate forecasts of market development. However, if one or another significant factor changes sharply in the forecast period, then the forecast error can be quite large. Moreover, the longer the period, the greater it is. Therefore, extrapolation as a forecasting method is usually used only on short-term intervals.

The method of interpolating time series is to find the missing members of the time series within it. Based on the known initial and final levels of the series and the established interdependence of its members, any necessary level is calculated. The use of this method is associated with the need to have developed consumption norms, a reliable determination of the year in which this norm was achieved, and knowledge of the patterns of development of time series of consumption. The accuracy of this method is relatively low. Therefore, this forecasting method is used relatively rarely in marketing. Most often it is used for long-term forecasting.

Extrapolation and interpolation methods do not take into account changes in market factors over time. At the same time, it is well known that demand, product supply and prices depend on a large number of factors. It is also known that it is impossible to take into account all factors when calculating the prospects for market development. The forecasting method using calculations of demand elasticity coefficients consists in selecting the main determining factors of the market and measuring their influence on a particular element of the market.

Elasticity is the ability of demand to change under the influence of changes in any factor. The elasticity coefficient shows by what percentage demand will change when the value of the factor changes by 1%.