What changes will happen to our planet before 2052? Very many, says Norwegian business school professor Jørgen Randers. In the video he gives short review his book “2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years”...

What changes will happen to our planet before 2052? Very many, says Norwegian business school professor Jørgen Randers.

In the video, he gives a brief overview of his book 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, which predicts world development and questions are raised about the survival of the planet. He describes the year 2052 in terms of slow economic growth, unrelenting unemployment, social unrest, rising inequality and ever-worsening climate conditions.

“All this will happen chaotically, according to an unpredictable scenario, and after a while everything will reach such an extreme that it will become dangerous,” Randers notes. He admits that he is deliberately provocative in his work: “I hope that my impartial and arrogant behavior and harsh criticism of democratic society will make someone outraged and say “enough is enough,” this is too stupid. That's my goal."

What's next for ISO? According to Randers, the role of ISO is very important and useful. “The fact that there are standards that force market participants to play by the same rules to create a single global platform, even at the expense of additional costs, is remarkable,” he adds. “The very fact that ISO has been around for so long gives us hope because it means that a democratic society can make decisions in a fair and equitable manner.”

Jorgen Randers is co-author of The Limits of Growth, a groundbreaking study of how humanity can adapt to the limits of finite natural resources. This book became an environmental bestseller. In 2012, the author updated the results of the 1972 study.

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Bestseller "Limits to Growth" ( The Limits to Growth) has become one of the most popular books in the field of ecology and has changed the way professionals think about the problems of climate change. In his latest work "2052: a global forecast for the next 40 years" ( 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years) the author says that humanity is on the path of destruction. ISOfocus magazine spoke with the author about the future of our planet and possible solutions.

Your forecast for 2052 is quite bleak. What goal did you pursue in making such a forecast?

I devoted 40 years of my life to studying the problem of environmentally friendly economic growth. I am already many years old, and I can say that my efforts were in vain, because modern world is destroying the environment more than it was 40 years ago. I wrote this book to get rid of remorse. 2052 is a kind of conventional milestone that we must achieve in 40 years.

How do you see 2052?

It will be marked by slow economic growth V developed countries, persistent unemployment, social conflict, growing inequality - all those problems that arise from economic management that is not aimed at growth. All this will happen against the backdrop of an ever-deteriorating climate with increasingly extreme weather events (droughts, floods, forest fires, steadily rising sea levels, etc.).

Moreover, these phenomena will occur spontaneously, in an unpredictable manner, and after a while they will become so extreme that they will pose a threat.

What will happen over the next 40 years?

I don't think anything will be done for 40 years. Preventing the negative consequences of climate change is quite simple, because we know exactly what needs to be done. The problem is that doing something costs more than doing nothing. Therefore, no one will support these decisions.

The saddest thing, in my opinion, is that the majority of the population of developed countries is not willing to donate additional funds to solve this global problem.

You are a supporter of “smart regulation”. What does it mean?

I am not a supporter of an unregulated market and I do not believe that an unregulated market will help us solve fundamental problems. I'm for strong government regulation, but, of course, for reasonable regulation.

Therefore, in my opinion, the role of ISO is very important. The existence of standards and ISO gives us some hope because it means that our democratic community makes decisions on an equal and impartial basis.

As part of the joint Master's program of the University of Geneva and ISO in Standardization, Social Regulation and Sustainable Development, Jörgen Randers hosted a conference for 670 participants in Geneva and hundreds more online.You can watch the podcast (digitized recording for a media player) of the conference .

Part 4.

Why did the forecast come true?

Not everyone I By soul, But I above everyone imperiously.
fight of good And evil I accept indifferently.
I - joy And sadness, I - true And lie.
Which case to me, Who bad, A Who good.
I - Time.

However, many important opportunities were lost due to 35 years of denial of obvious facts. Why were these opportunities lost? I wonder. Everything is quite simple in my deep misconception. And here the internal contradiction between the desire for maximum economic efficiency and the degree of endurance in the event of external shocks.

Russia is now making a lot of efforts to become more efficient economically and technologically. But at the same time, we must clearly understand that there is a paradox: the faster we move towards resistance to collapse, the less interest there will be for those leaders who set the direction of movement in order to become sustainable. This is the salt. It's hard to stand and think when everything around you is moving!!! And so everyone moves so as not to understand what is happening. I smile... Although the upcoming events are by no means optimistic.

In fact, the main problem is that high performance leads to profit in the short term. And resistance to shocks requires increased productivity and new solutions, and this is the costly part of R&D. Everyone is looking for performance without increasing efficiency to make money in the short term. According to the “one and done” principle))) But stability in the longer term requires spending on R&D, you need to think, but you want a lot at once and yesterday. Most people don't want to spend money on areas that don't provide a quick return on investment. Nobody wants research and development, everyone wants immediate results. Leaders challenge people not to develop more efficient technologies, but to seek extensive solutions through tension and scale, and this automatically leads to disruption. As long as people with baboon motivations are in power, I am skeptical that a sustainable (self-sustaining) system will be built.

But when we come to the edge, and everything that needs to happen begins, there will immediately be those who can solve the problem. Why? Therefore, as soon as famine begins, the stupid and copper-headed will be removed from power. Only now our children, who will have to live in another world, will come to the edge first. And they have no choice: they are innocent victims. Their choice is still up to their parents, who can think)))

And this is where the few who want specific advice come into play. What to do in a world that is doomed?

But since these articles are intended to provide solutions, we will not rush into this. Why? Because quick decisions are usually wrong. And I and my reader don’t want to make mistakes...

But if we talk about the need to increase individual resistance to the shocks that await children, such an interpretation of the term is clear to everyone. That is, we can create a kind of community, we can make dozens of people more protected and specially prepare them so that they are prepared in advance for how to live without supplies of food, drink, and electricity. What can you store in a world where resources are running out? I smile. Only reason and wisdom...

And I appeal to everyone: forget about the fact that you need to save the whole world. The whole world is very different. Instead, you can give specific people and groups of people useful practical recommendations: How they can best prepare for the coming period of great upheaval. That is, there is no need to wait for the next wise decisions from our governments, only we need our children and we need to take the necessary preventive measures. You need to understand that saving drowning people in the absence of rescuers is the work of the drowning people themselves.

Moreover, I understand that those from whom people expect help are actually interested in something else. In Europe, attempts were made to tighten their belts. And what?

Let's start with Britain.

David Cameron

Cameron made clear and detailed promises about what he would bring financial policy based on austerity measures: this is an increase in economic growth, a reduction in unemployment, a reduction in the deficit, as well as a reduction in the huge government debt. In short, the Tories said that when the government showed enough "resolve" to fix its problems, the market would follow suit and the economy would grow strongly. But did something happen on the way to a bright future? The British economy has performed disastrously over the past two years. Everyone is unhappy.

It was necessary not to save, but to increase spending on research to increase productivity. But that's in the past. And therefore it does not matter why what should have happened did not happen.

The whole question is how will people survive in the future not a slowdown, but a shutdown of the economy and a rollback to the past, and not by two or three percent, but by tens?

As a recent article in the Financial Times noted, Britain is currently experiencing its deepest recession in a century and its weakest economic recovery in a century. People are worried about the slowdown. What will happen to them when everything starts to shrink sharply? They just don't want to think about it!!!

The country has officially slipped into recession today, the second time in just three years. As the Financial Times notes in the same article, it has been four years since the country's real GDP peaked in the first quarter of 2008, and GDP at the end of the first quarter of 2012 is more than four percent below its peak in period before the recession. And this is no coincidence: when Cameron came to power, there was a slight, but very real economic recovery, and the economy was slowly moving forward with a growth rate of 2%. Everyone wants growth at any cost. And now we need to increase productivity and reduce resource consumption.

Let's look at another example from Greece.

The situation in Greece shows an even worse dynamic: everything is falling apart at the seams, but people don’t care about it. Look at unfortunate Greece, which wants to continue to live in debt.

In order to understand how hard it is for poor Greeks, just look at the average salaries and compare them with ours. It turns out that poor Greeks live five times better than we do in Russia. They are on strike, but we are not. And they still ask us for help. This despite the fact that they simply did not return a lot of money from deposits in Cyprus...

Compare the incomes of Greeks and Russians...

Look at how poor Greeks live))) Who should help whom? But that’s not what I’m talking about. What will happen to those who will not be able to fight for a place in the sun in a shrinking economy? They are struggling with strikes and riots, but they need to increase productivity. Let them continue as before... What will we do at this time?

Therefore, precisely for this reason, in a world in which there are so many distortions and disproportions, there are groups of people who are quite protected, for whom a sharp change in the picture of the world seems to be a useful and interesting event in order to use these distortions in their favor. These are the rules of the game of the free world. They are well prepared for these events, and therefore, when the crisis unfolds, they expect to receive a serious gain. However, let's continue...

In mid-April 2012, Dennis Meadows came to Moscow at the invitation of the Institute of World Ideas, created by the founder and head of the Rostok group, Alexander Chikunov.

Alexander Chikunov

Now Meadows no longer wants to talk about possible options dampening the civilizational crisis. He understands his fate. The time for implementing soft scenarios, in his opinion, has already passed: “Over the next twenty years, the world expects more dramatic changes than in the entire past century.”

Dennis Meadows - World3 model developer

In the “anything goes” scenario, we continue to consume as much as the free market dictates (that is, more than the Earth's resources allow), with corresponding economic growth and environmental depletion. As a result, by 2030 there will be a powerful economic collapse, in comparison with which previous crises and defaults will seem like prosperity. Did the forecast fulfill its role?

So far the fate of the forecast is sad... We are not prepared. The population will plummet, food and clean water will become scarce, and environmental disasters will worsen. World3 also offered an optimistic scenario, according to which world economy does not eat itself, but for this, governments had to introduce restrictions and start investing in “green” technologies and renewable energy sources. The idea of ​​government intervention in the market in 1972 caused a storm of indignation and talk that this would lead to collapse and poverty.

How to feel about the World3 forecast?

It would be possible to ignore the predictions of forty years ago. After all, the longer the term, the less accurate it is.

Graham Turner

However, Australian physicist Graham Turner compared World3 with real data from 1970 to 2000. It turned out that for all thirty years we have carefully followed the worst-case scenario proposed (see graphs).

Chart of birth and death rates of the planet's population

Schedule of food services and industrial products

Graph of resources and environmental pollution

Regardless of Turner, PBL, the Dutch Environmental Assessment Agency, comes to the same conclusion.

The reasons for the impending disaster may be different. Jorgen Randers, one of the co-authors of the World3 project, published a book called 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, in which he argues that global warming will play a major role. It will especially intensify by the middle of the century and will result in droughts, floods and fires, food shortages, growing inequality and global conflicts. Graham Turner, analyzing the graphs, suggests that everything will happen even earlier, and not because of warming, but as a result of the depletion of available oil sources. Development will continue until 2015, and then a decline will begin, because available oil is running out, and inaccessible oil (for example, from the bottom of the ocean) is very expensive to extract. Most likely, there will be a whole complex of factors that are still difficult to accurately describe and which at one point will begin to reinforce themselves.

The whole question is, what can they - the children - do about it? Will we prepare them properly? Will we arm ourselves with the necessary competencies?

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June 2012 “2052: Global forecast for the next forty years” Jorgen Randers. the founders of the club conceived it as a kind of forum representing a variety of views and opinions, where there is no or not a single point of view. The Club of Rome organizes and holds annual conferences and addresses the public with the so-called “reports to the Club of Rome”. These reports are prepared by independent working groups, commissioned by the Club, to examine critical aspects of the current situation in the world. The Club's order determines only the topic and guarantees funding scientific research, but in no case affects the progress of the work, nor its results and conclusions; the authors of reports, including those who are members of the Club, enjoy complete freedom and independence. the work is financed not from the funds of the Club, which has a very modest budget, but from external sources, usually by attracting various funds. Having received the finished report. The club reviews and approves it, usually during an annual conference, often in the presence of the general public - representatives of the public, science, politicians, the press - and then disseminates the research results by publishing reports and discussing them in different audiences and countries around the world . http://www.posoh.ru/tend/intern_org/htm/rome1.htm French. alarmer - raise an alarm. - Economic growth is nearing completion - Environmental problems are reaching a whole new level - Global warming will play a major role. Australian physicist Graham Turner compared the World3 forecast with real data from 1970 to 2000. It turned out that for all 30 years we carefully followed the worst-case scenario proposed (see graph). A computer model of the development of the global system seemed to be exactly the visual, convincing and objective tool that the members of the Club of Rome were looking for. http://www.chelseagreen.com/bookstore/item/2052/.

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Economics lessons

“Economic game” - Construction game “World Village” in economics lessons. Stage II. Stages of the World Village constructor game. Reflection on the construction game. L.N. Bogolyubova). Homework. Objectives of the construction game: Reflective-evaluative. Information and operational. Construction game score sheet. Using the COR “pyramid diagram” (“Social studies grades 10-11”, ed.

“Lessons of Economics” - The purpose of the manual. Mandatory minimum content of basic educational programs. Each lesson summary contains: The developed technological map of 2 lessons has sections: Encyclopedia for children. Training and metodology complex includes the following sections: Public goods and externalities. Basics of economic theory.

“Questions and answers on economics” - What is a negative budget balance called? Land, labor, capital, entrepreneurial activity. When demand increases, supply also increases. Spare questions - 2 What types of taxes does this apply to? income tax. Economic sphere. Which authority accepts and approves the state budget RF.

“Project on Economics” - Stages and timing of the project. The concept of economics. Study questions: Why are natural resources, capital and labor called the three pillars of the economy? The most important task of civilization is to teach man to think. Families? 8.What recommendations could an ecologist give to farmers and plant designers? The connection between the work of a miner, a steelmaker, and a hairdresser.

– molten

In its latest publication, 2052 - A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, the Club of Rome takes a bold stance on the future.

The sixty-six scientists and economists who compiled the club's forecast (the same number as for the first Limits to Growth forecast in 1972) believe that the current economic development may soon fall on his shoulder blades.

Already in a report from 1972, the club warned that the future of the world would depend on the future use of energy. Unlike today's beliefs, the assumptions of the 70s were based on the fact that fossil fuels - oil and gas - would soon run out. And after the publication of the report in 1972, their predictions seemed to be coming true. The oil crisis of 1973 and the crisis of 1979/80 led to a sharp rise in prices, and industrialized countries, as a result, experienced a recession.

"The Limits to Growth" was a milestone in which the Club of Rome used complex mathematical models to predict future interdependence of social, environmental and economic factors.

Models took into account limited availability natural resources, global industrial productivity, food production, population growth and environmental pollution.

The main thesis was that the approaching decline in non-renewable resources will affect all other factors. Resource declines were predicted to occur as early as the 1970s, and by 2015 food production and global industry will decrease, leading to a reduction in the world population.

This scenario is no longer relevant, but the new Club of Rome again predicts the end of growth, this time by 2050. Stagnation will be accompanied by a global recession, which will lead to population decline.

But a look back at the 1972 forecast shows how difficult it is to make reliable predictions for such complex scenarios. People have proven to be more resourceful and adaptable than the report expected. The oil crisis of the 1970s led to the development and exploitation of previously unknown sources of fossil fuels. Today, deep-sea drilling is no surprise, although in 1972 the very thought of it was unimaginable.

Also, the Club of Rome failed to predict the modernization pressures that led to structural changes away from heavy industry to a society with advanced technologies and a service economy: the rise of the computer era in the 1980s, the Internet in the 90s and progress in energy and environment, as well as nanotechnology.

The new study also puts complex issues: Will the discovery of methane hydrate be a solution to the energy problems of the future, or will it only add to environmental problems? What strategies will political leaders follow? What role will oil sands play in the future energy mix? How quickly will renewable energy become truly competitive?

Self-feeding prophecies?

New forecasting models are becoming more sophisticated and complex. However, there is still a problem that they are unable to take into account: the degree of influence that these forecasts themselves have. If people accept the idea that changing policies and behavior will improve their lives, they are more likely to do so. Club of Rome general secretary Ian Johnson said "business as usual" is not an option if people want to leave a planet that is still livable for future generations.

Winners and Losers

Turning its attention to politics, the Club of Rome predicts a shift in power and influence from the United States to China. China's non-democratic structure is actually an advantage for China because the government can implement its policies more easily and quickly than in a democracy.

However, the report does not say whether China can maintain this advantage for long. A 1972 report showed that political events were difficult to predict, as was the case with the collapse Soviet Union. However, one thing the Club of Rome rules out is a military confrontation between Washington and Beijing.

In terms of the economic future, small and medium-sized companies in the US and other industrialized countries will be the hardest hit by future transformations, as they are the least innovative sectors. The club believes that by 2052, China will achieve per capita income two-thirds that of the United States.