The term "Devaluation" is a word of Latin origin, where "de" means "decrease" or "downward movement" and "valeo" means "value." Accordingly, devaluation is a procedure during which the value is officially reduced national currency compared to hard foreign money. At present, it means lowered , euro.

The devaluation of the national currency is always accompanied by a depreciation of one’s own funds within the country. These two processes are interrelated. This happens when imports play an important role in the economy of the state.

What is the essence of the devaluation of the national currency?

At its core, the devaluation of the national currency is the official recording of the actual depreciation of money that occurred during the inflation process. Today, devaluation indicates a crisis state of the state’s currency system and is a consequence of the depreciation of funds or a significant and prolonged deficit in the balance of payments.

With the help of devaluation, it becomes possible to increase exports and make large profits in foreign currency. However, a significant disadvantage is the increase in the cost of imported products, and sometimes even inaccessibility to the average consumer.

What are the causes and consequences of devaluation?

There are many reasons why devaluation occurs. Among the main ones are:

• economic crisis;
• inflation;
• capital outflow;
• decline in oil prices;
• negative balance of payments between countries, with the dominance of foreign countries;
• the effect of economic sanctions and others.

The overall influence of all these factors leads to the development of a sharp devaluation of the national currency. Usually this is a controlled process controlled by the country's leadership. It can arise under a certain influence of market mechanisms.

The consequences of the devaluation of the national currency are ambiguous. This process has both negative and positive sides.

Two types of devaluation
Open devaluation	Hidden devaluation
This procedure involves an open statement by the state to carry out the devaluation of funds. Information about the ongoing processes of depreciation of its own currency is brought to the attention of the population. Over time, devalued cash are removed from circulation. Denomination can be carried out, that is, replacing the old money with new bills that can correspond to the current exchange rate.	The process of hidden devaluation does not lead to the withdrawal of banknotes that have lost their value from circulation. At the same time, the state reduces the value of the national currency.

You can name another classification of devaluation, it will depend on how much the state influences what is happening:

• Controlled devaluation occurs in a situation where the state, using various economic mechanisms, maintains the value of the national currency and, despite all this, the processes of its depreciation continue.
• Uncontrolled devaluation occurs when the state loses all mechanisms to maintain a stable exchange rate, and the depreciation of the national currency is no longer controlled.

Consequences of devaluation

Devaluation of the national currency leads to such negative consequences as:

• continued increase in inflation;
• the population is losing confidence in the national currency, as financial instrument and seeks to ensure the accumulation of funds in a more stable, foreign currency;
• loss of value, due to which the population begins to massively withdraw savings, which can lead to a crisis in the banking sector.
• a decrease in the volume of supplies of foreign goods, an increase in prices for imported goods, which negatively affects the work of enterprises that purchase imported raw materials and equipment for their production;
• consumer activity is declining as a result of a reduction in real incomes of the population;
• pensions and benefits are being reduced;
• The external debt of the state increases.

What are the advantages of devaluation?

Devaluation of the national currency by general condition the economy of the state is affected in two ways, that is, along with the negative consequences listed above, there are also positive aspects of this process.

The positive consequences of devaluation include:

• Devaluation ensures the growth of exports, ensuring the receipt of foreign exchange income and the corresponding deductions to the budget.
• Increased demand for goods of domestic producers, as a result of rising prices for imported goods. The development of domestic production is stimulated, which increases the competitiveness of the national product.
• The consumption of gold and foreign exchange reserves is decreasing.

Usually, devaluation is carried out in order to reduce the cost of exported goods and increase the cost of imported goods.

Each national currency has a price in another country's monetary units, which is called the exchange rate. Hesitation exchange rate primarily affects the physical volume of imports and exports. Decrease in the exchange rate of the national currency, etc. equal conditions leads to an increase in domestic prices for imported goods and a decrease in external prices for exported products, which results in an increase in exports. An increase in the exchange rate of the national currency, as a rule, causes the opposite process. Thus, a change in the exchange rate by 1% leads to a change in import prices by 0.8% and export prices by 0.1-0.6%, depending on the country. Other things being equal, a depreciation of the national currency worsens the terms of trade, while an increase improves it.

In addition to the direct impact on export-import transactions, unpredictable exchange rate fluctuations can have an adverse impact on the national economy through other channels.

Firstly, the depreciation of the national currency can serve as one of the factors in the development of inflation in the country.

Secondly, current and long-term planning of foreign economic operations is significantly complicated.

Thirdly, the likelihood of destabilizing actions by speculators increases, which can lead to significant economic costs.

Dealers and brokers on the outside foreign exchange market have continuous information about any changes in exchange rates. Other business agents, whose need for this knowledge is not so immediate, can obtain relevant information from the financial chronicle section of the day's newspapers.

Establishing the exchange rate of foreign currencies in the national one is called quotation. In the practice of banks different countries reverse and direct quotes are used. The most common is direct quotation, which means that a certain amount of foreign currency, usually 100 units, serves as the basis for expressing a fluctuating value of the corresponding amount of domestic currency. Reverse quotation is less commonly used. Its basis is fixed amount national currency, which serves as the basis for expressing the fluctuating value of foreign currency. A reverse quote is the reciprocal of a direct quote. Reverse quotation is common mainly in the UK and partly in the USA.

There are two types of exchange rates:

Nominal – the relative price of the currencies of two countries;
real - the relative price of goods produced in two countries.

Let's assume that an American car costs $1,000, and a similar Russian car costs 60,000 rubles. To compare these prices, they need to be expressed in the same currency. With an exchange rate of 30 rubles/dollars. It turns out that an American car costs 30,000 rubles. This means that for the price of a Russian car you can buy two American cars. The example shows that the real exchange rate depends on the nominal rate, prices of goods in national currencies and is calculated using the formula

P = N C 1 / C 2,

N – nominal exchange rate;
R – real exchange rate;
Ts 1 and Ts 2 – price level in the first and second countries, respectively.

N = P x C 2 / C 1

If the state remains outside the foreign exchange market, allowing exchange rates to change so that supply and demand are balanced through the laws of free competition, then this is a free floating regime.

Let's consider the foreign exchange market in conditions of free floating, when the real exchange rate is equal to one, since the demand and supply of currency are regulated by the laws of free competition. For the purity of the model, we will assume that international lending, borrowing and speculation do not exist. This premise implies that foreign exchange is used only in transactions involving the export or import of goods and services. Importers must obtain foreign currency to pay their bills abroad. Therefore, imports are the source of demand for foreign exchange. Export, on the contrary, is the source of its supply. In the market, supply from exports meets demand from imports. This way they are installed exchange rates.

The main element of the monetary system of each country is its national currency. Almost all international economic transactions involve the exchange of national currencies, which occurs at a certain price. Price monetary unit one country, expressed in the monetary units of other countries (or in an international monetary unit), is called the exchange rate. The exchange rate assumes mutual quotation of currencies. Currency quotation is the process of determining the exchange rate by one method or another. There are two main methods of currency quotation: direct and indirect. With direct quotation, the exchange rate of one national currency unit is expressed in terms of a certain amount of foreign currency. For example, 1 rub. = $0.03 = 3 cents. For the ruble this is a direct quote, and for the dollar it is indirect. With indirect quotation, a certain number of units of the national currency is expressed through the exchange rate of one unit of foreign currency. For example, 1 dollar = 31 rubles. For the dollar this is a direct quote, and for the ruble it is an indirect quote.

Exists different classification exchange rates. For example, depending on whether a currency is purchased or sold, the seller's rate or the buyer's rate is formed. The seller's rate is the price at which the bank sells foreign currency for national currency. The buyer's rate is the price at which the bank buys foreign currency for national currency. The difference between these rates forms a margin that covers the costs of organizing the sale of currency and generates bank profit.

Taking into account inflation, nominal and real exchange rates are calculated. The nominal exchange rate is the current exchange rate between two currencies. The real exchange rate is defined as the nominal one, adjusted to the ratio of prices within the country and prices in other countries. It can be expressed by the formula

Where Er is the real exchange rate;

En - nominal exchange rate;

Pf - price index of a foreign country;

Pd is the price index of your country.

The policies of state central banks are largely aimed at containing the sharp increase in the real exchange rate of the national currency. It is believed that an increase in the real exchange rate is an undesirable factor, especially for countries with export-oriented development. This is explained by the fact that the depreciation of the national currency leads to a decrease in the prices of national goods on the world market, expressed in foreign currency, which causes a reduction in exports.

Thus, the negative consequences of currency appreciation are experienced primarily by export-oriented industries. In this light, the example of the Toyota automobile corporation is not without interest. A drop in the dollar exchange rate by just one yen (and therefore an increase in the yen exchange rate) results in financial losses of 6 billion yen. In general, according to experts, when the yen rises, at least 70% of Japanese corporations and firms suffer losses.

However, one cannot unequivocally positively assess the artificial decline in the real exchange rate. The undervalued exchange rate of the national currency has not only advantages, but also serious disadvantages. Thus, a depreciation of the national currency leads to an increase in prices for imported goods expressed in national currency. Imports are declining. This negatively affects the interests of national consumers, as it makes imported goods less accessible, which reduces consumption. An undervalued exchange rate is also undesirable for many manufacturers who use imported equipment, raw materials, and supplies in their production. This causes them to increase production costs and can lead the economy into a state of so-called “supply shock,” that is, cause a reduction in real output while simultaneously increasing prices. It is worth adding to this that the undervalued exchange rate contributes to maintaining artificially low prices for national products, which, in turn, makes it ineffective investment activity, provokes a massive outflow of raw materials at obviously low prices, blocks the import of advanced equipment and technologies and therefore dooms the country's economy to years and decades of stagnation. In this regard, we note that in modern Russia An undervalued ruble exchange rate is extremely undesirable, as it leads to the above-mentioned negative consequences.

Depending on the regime used, a distinction is made between a rigidly fixed exchange rate, a freely floating exchange rate and a mixed exchange rate. A strictly fixed exchange rate is set by the state; currency fluctuations are not allowed here. Under flexible floating exchange rates, the exchange rate is set based on the natural market laws of supply and demand. The two named exchange rate systems are diametrically opposed. In addition to them, there are a number of intermediate options, so-called hybrid courses. The most typical type of the latter is a managed exchange rate (managed float). Guided sailing is the practice of steering a course using government regulatory tools. Since changes in the exchange rate have, as explained above, very tangible consequences for the economy, the option of controlled floating is in modern economy the most common.

Methods of regulating the exchange rate can be aimed at both devaluation - a decrease in the exchange rate of a currency, and revaluation - an increase in the exchange rate of a currency. It depends on the economic situation in the country and purpose that this moment the government sets itself. It may try to increase aggregate demand at the expense of export opportunities, relying on currency devaluation, or limit it through revaluation.

Among the measures of government influence on the exchange rate, it is especially worth noting foreign exchange interventions, i.e. the purchase and sale of foreign currency for national currency. Purchasing foreign currency central bank means an expansion of demand for it and leads to an increase in the exchange rate of the foreign currency and a decrease in the rate of the national currency. The sale of foreign currency increases its supply, which causes a decrease in the foreign currency exchange rate and an increase in the national currency exchange rate. Changes in the exchange rate are also affected by such methods of monetary policy central bank like open market operations, changes discount rate and norms of required reserves.

The exchange rate in a free-floating environment is influenced by a number of factors. First of all, changes in the exchange rate occur under the influence of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. In turn, supply and demand are influenced by numerous circumstances of an economic, political, subjective and psychological nature. All factors influencing supply and demand in foreign exchange markets and changing the exchange rate can be divided into structural (acting in the long term) and market factors (causing short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate).

Structural factors include: the competitiveness of the country’s goods on the world market and its changes; the state of the country's balance of payments; inflation rates; difference interest rates in various countries; degree of openness national economy; government regulation exchange rate. Opportunistic ones include: activity of the foreign exchange market; speculative currency transactions; crises; wars; natural disasters; forecasts; cyclical activity in the country.

Let's consider the most important factors affecting the exchange rate.

1. Change in consumer tastes. If consumers prefer to purchase imported goods, this will create a demand for foreign currency and its rate will rise, and the rate of the national currency will fall. The fact is that exchange rates are a kind of “communicating vessels”, and an increase in the price of the national currency inevitably means a depreciation of the foreign one. In turn, an increase in the price of foreign currency indicates a depreciation of the national currency.

2. Protectionist policy of the state in foreign trade. If protective measures are applied to imports, the demand for foreign currency is reduced, and its exchange rate relative to the national currency falls. In turn, the exchange rate of the national currency is growing. Since these measures reduce the volume of international trade and cause inter-country contradictions, it becomes clear that the widespread use of such policies in order to stabilize the exchange rate can lead to negative consequences.

3. Changes in the national income of the country, and, consequently, in the income of buyers. As income increases, consumption of both domestic and imported goods increases, so the demand for foreign currency increases. In the foreign exchange market, this will be reflected in the growth of the foreign currency exchange rate and the depreciation of the national currency. Consequently, all factors that lead to an increase in national income can affect exchange rates.

4. Inflation ( relative change prices). All other things being equal, the level of inflation in the country inversely affects the value of the national currency, i.e., an increase in inflation in the country leads to a decrease in the exchange rate of the national currency, and vice versa. If the rate of price growth in one country exceeds the corresponding indicators in another, then imported goods will (as long as the exchange rate remains unchanged) be cheaper. This will increase the demand for them, which will lead to an increase in the demand for foreign exchange and the provision of national money. The rise in price of foreign currency will also be caused by the increasing desire of people to preserve their real income. This will be reflected in an increase in demand for “hard” currencies in order to preserve savings. But since the supply of currency remains unchanged, the growth of money in circulation and inflation lead to a depreciation of the national currency. In connection with the inflation factor, parity is calculated purchasing power(PPP), i.e. the real price of the national currency in the currency of another country. To calculate PPP, prices of similar goods and services produced in the countries being compared are compared. Let's say the price of the consumer basket in Russia is 5,000 rubles, the same figure in the USA is 100 dollars. The exchange rate ratio in this case will be: 1 dollar = 50 rubles, or 1 ruble. = $0.02

5. The value of real interest rates. All factors causing an influx of foreign capital into the country will contribute to the appreciation of the national currency. In its turn, important point, which determines the country of capital placement for an investor, is the size of real interest rates (nominal rate minus the rate of price growth). The higher the real interest rates and, therefore, the yield on securities in a country relative to other countries, the more attractive this country is for investment financial resources. This leads to an increase in the supply of foreign currency and acts towards an increase in the exchange rate of national money.

Changes in interest rates affect the exchange rate in two ways. On the one hand, their increase within the country causes a decrease in demand for the national currency, as credit becomes expensive. Having taken it, entrepreneurs increase the cost of their products, which leads to an increase in prices within the country and depreciates the national currency in relation to foreign ones. On the other hand, an increase in real interest rates makes it profitable for foreigners to place funds in this country. The influx of their capital is growing, the demand for the currency of this country is growing, and it is becoming more expensive. Thus, changes in interest rates can both directly and inversely affect the exchange rate.

6. The state of the trade balance. The balance of payments directly affects the exchange rate. Thus, the active balance of payments contributes to the appreciation of the national currency, as the demand for it from foreign partners increases. The passive balance of payments generates a tendency for the national currency to depreciate, since domestic debtors, buying foreign currency to pay off their obligations, increase the supply of their national currency.

The size of the influence of the balance of payments on the exchange rate is determined by the degree of openness of the country's economy. The higher the share of exports in gross national product(the higher the openness of the economy), the higher the elasticity of the exchange rate to changes in the balance of payments.

In addition, the exchange rate is affected by economic policy states in the field of regulation of the components of the balance of payments: the current account and the capital account (changes in duties, interest rates, import restrictions, trade quotas, export subsidies). If the positive balance of payments grows, then the demand for the currency of a given country also increases and its exchange rate increases accordingly. With a negative balance, the reverse process occurs: the demand for foreign currency increases.

7. All kinds of expectations of various market actors regarding changes in exchange rates. Business entities develop different views about future economic growth rates, inflation rates, the value of real interest rates, directions of macroeconomic policy. As a result of summarizing these indicators, opinions about expected exchange rates are formed. All other things being equal, it is more profitable to hold a portfolio of assets in those currencies whose exchange rates are expected to increase. In turn, on international market It is more profitable to take a loan in a currency whose exchange rate may fall in the future. In addition, holders of a weak currency will try to convert it into a stronger one (its rate will increase). Currency exchanges caused by all these reasons will increase the perceived depreciation or appreciation of currencies.

8. State macroregulation of the economy. These include the use of official foreign exchange reserves, trade policies, exchange control and rationing in the foreign exchange market, financial and monetary policy. By manipulating foreign exchange reserves, it is possible to increase the supply of foreign currency, thereby maintaining a certain exchange rate in the foreign exchange market. However, the volume of reserves is limited, and it is possible to maintain the exchange rate in this way only for a short time.

Another way to influence supply and demand is exchange control, or rationing. In order to increase the supply of foreign currency, the state may introduce a mandatory 100% sale of all foreign currency received by exporters. To reduce demand, administrative restrictions can be introduced on currency consumers, etc.

9. Currency speculation, confidence in the currency, its popularity and other circumstances also affect the exchange rate. In any state, foreign exchange reserves are not unlimited. If for some reason the demand for foreign currency exceeds its supply for a long time, then it is impossible to artificially keep the national currency from falling by selling foreign currency. Here the question arises about the need to abandon exchange rate protection and switch to a floating exchange rate regime or legislatively reduce the value of one’s national currency to a level corresponding to market equilibrium. In this case, currency speculators may get ahead of the government and begin to actively dump the national currency in exchange for foreign currency in order to avoid losses. A situation arises, known in international economics as a “speculative attack on the currency.”

There is market and government regulation of the exchange rate. Market regulation, based on competition and the laws of value, supply and demand, is carried out spontaneously. The effect of these laws on foreign exchange markets ensures the equivalence of currency exchange, the correspondence of their quantity to the needs of the world economy related to the movement of goods, services, capital, and loans. Through the dynamics of the exchange rate, market participants learn about the magnitude of demand and supply of currencies. Thus, the market acts as a source of information about the state foreign exchange transactions.

Government regulation is aimed at overcoming the negative consequences market regulation currency relations, to achieve sustainable economic growth, balance of payments balance, reduction of unemployment and inflation in the country. It is carried out using monetary policy- a set of activities in the field of international monetary relations in accordance with the current and strategic goals of the country. Legally, monetary policy is formalized by currency legislation and currency agreements between states.

The main measures of government influence on the exchange rate include:

A) foreign exchange interventions;

B) discount policy;

B) protectionist measures.

The most important instrument of the state's foreign exchange policy is foreign exchange interventions - Central Bank operations in foreign exchange markets for the purchase and sale of the national currency against leading foreign currencies. To increase the exchange rate of the national currency, the Central Bank must sell foreign currencies, buying up the national one. This reduces the demand for foreign currency, and consequently increases the exchange rate of the national currency. In order to lower the exchange rate of the national currency, the Central Bank sells the national currency and buys foreign currency. This leads to an increase in the exchange rate of foreign currency and a decrease in the exchange rate of the national currency.

The amount of official foreign exchange reserves used for interventions serves as an indicator of the extent of government intervention in the process of setting exchange rates.

Discount policy is a change by the Central Bank of the discount rate, including for the purpose of regulating the exchange rate by influencing the cost of credit in the domestic market and thereby influencing international capital flows. For example, with a passive balance of payments, an increase in the discount rate can stimulate the inflow of capital from countries with lower interest rates and restrain the outflow of national capital. This measure will help improve the balance of payments and increase the exchange rate. By lowering the official rate, the Central Bank is counting on the outflow of national and foreign capital in order to reduce the active balance of the balance of payments and depreciate the exchange rate of its currency. In recent decades, the importance of such exchange rate regulation has gradually decreased due to the inconsistency of its internal and external goals.

Protectionist measures are aimed at protecting the national currency. These include currency restrictions: legislative or administrative prohibition or regulation of transactions of residents and non-residents with currency. Types of currency restrictions are:

A currency blockade is an economic sanction in the form of unilateral currency restrictions of one country or group of countries in relation to another state, preventing the use of it currency values(freeze of currency values ​​stored in foreign banks, application of discriminatory currency restrictions);

Ban on free purchase and sale of foreign currency;

Regulation of international payments;

Movement of capital;

Repatriation of profits;

Movement of gold and securities;

Concentration of foreign currency and other currency values ​​in the hands of the state.

Thus, in Russia the following types of foreign exchange restrictions were applied: mandatory sale by residents of 50% of foreign exchange earnings on the domestic foreign exchange market; licensing of foreign exchange transactions related to the movement of capital; centralization of foreign exchange transactions in the Central and authorized banks. This ensured that the course was maintained Russian ruble to the US dollar within certain limits

The ruble exchange rate to a foreign currency (direct quotation) is the cost of one ruble expressed in units of this currency (the ruble exchange rate can also be calculated in relation to a group of currencies). More common is the use of inverse quotation, namely foreign currency exchange rates to the ruble, which represent the cost of one unit of foreign currency expressed in rubles. An increase in the exchange rate of a foreign currency against the ruble means a weakening of the ruble, a decrease in the exchange rate of a foreign currency means a strengthening of the ruble.

The exchange rate of foreign currency to the ruble is determined by the ratio of demand for foreign currency and its supply in the foreign exchange market. The reasons for changes in the exchange rate can be any factors affecting the change in the relationship between the supply and demand of foreign currency. In particular, the dynamics of the exchange rate may be influenced by changes in import and export prices, inflation levels and interest rates in Russia and abroad, economic growth rates, possible periods of instability in Russia and the world, changes in the monetary policy of central banks in Russia and other countries , expectations of business entities.

External factors play an important role in shaping the dynamics of the exchange rate, especially in countries such as Russia, characterized by a significant degree of openness of the economy. For example, the rise in world prices for commodities, which make up the bulk of Russian exports (primarily oil prices), leads to an increase in foreign exchange income of exporters from foreign trade transactions. At the same time, the supply of foreign currency on the domestic foreign exchange market from exporters is growing, which, as a rule, creates conditions for the strengthening of the ruble. On the contrary, a decline in oil prices, other things being equal, creates the preconditions for a weakening of the ruble. Information on the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate and the factors influencing it is contained in the quarterly Monetary Policy Report

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The goals of the Bank of Russia and its functions are determined by paragraph 2 of Article 75 of the Constitution Russian Federation and articles 3 and 4 Federal Law(hereinafter referred to as the Law). According to Article 34.1 of the Law, the main goal of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia is to protect and ensure the stability of the ruble by maintaining price stability, including to create conditions for balanced and sustainable economic growth. In accordance with paragraph 1 of Article 4 of the Law, the Bank of Russia, in cooperation with the Government of the Russian Federation, develops and implements a unified state monetary policy. The official document “Main Directions of the Unified State Monetary Policy” is prepared annually by the Bank of Russia and considered by the State Duma in accordance with Article 45 of the Law (published on the official website of the Bank of Russia in the section “Monetary Policy”, as well as in the sections “ Current documents" and "Publications of the Bank of Russia"). This document contains information on the implementation by the Bank of Russia of a unified state monetary policy and its prospects for the coming three-year period, including information on the implementation of exchange rate policy.

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According to Article 34.1 of the Federal Law “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)”, the main goal of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia is to protect and ensure the stability of the ruble by maintaining price stability. Thus, ensuring the stability of the national currency does not mean maintaining its exchange rate relative to other currencies at a constant level, but is achieved by maintaining its purchasing power by ensuring low inflation. When low inflation is achieved, the volume of goods and services that can be purchased for a fixed amount of rubles does not change significantly over a long period, which maintains the confidence of business entities in the national currency and, ultimately, creates favorable conditions for growth Russian economy. When conducting monetary policy, the Bank of Russia takes into account the impact of exchange rate dynamics on the growth rate of consumer prices, along with other factors.

In accordance with the “Main Directions of the Unified State Monetary Policy for 2019 and the period of 2020 and 2021,” the goal of monetary policy is to maintain annual inflation near 4% constantly. Small fluctuations in inflation around the target are allowed. If inflation deviates from the target or there are factors that may cause such a deviation, the Bank of Russia takes measures to help return inflation to the target.

At the same time, the exchange rate policy of the Bank of Russia since November 10, 2014 has been carried out within the framework of a floating exchange rate regime, which assumes that the ruble exchange rate is not fixed and no targets are set for the level of the exchange rate or the rate of its change. The dynamics of the ruble exchange rate is determined by market factors, that is, it is formed under the influence of changes in the supply and demand of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market. The Bank of Russia under normal conditions does not commit foreign exchange interventions aimed at influencing the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate. This enables the Bank of Russia to more effectively influence inflation.

At the same time, within the framework of a floating exchange rate regime, it is not expected that foreign exchange interventions will be completely abandoned; they can be carried out in the event of threats to financial stability. For example, such a situation arose in December 2014, when the excessive weakening of the ruble led to its significant deviation from fundamentally justified values, that is, those levels that are determined by the action of macroeconomic factors, primarily affecting the balance of payments: prices for exported goods, interest rate differentials rates, economic activity and other parameters. During this period, the Bank of Russia carried out sales of foreign currency on certain days. In conditions where exchange rate fluctuations pose a threat to financial stability, the Bank of Russia can also use currency refinancing mechanisms in order to stabilize the situation.

In addition, the Bank of Russia may conduct operations on the foreign exchange market to replenish or use international reserves in connection with the execution by the Ministry of Finance of Russia budget rule. Within of this rule The volume of additional oil and gas revenues from the federal budget directed toward the purchase of foreign currency for subsequent transfer to the National Welfare Fund (NWF), or the volume of foreign currency from the NWF directed for sale for subsequent transfer to the budget, is calculated by the Russian Ministry of Finance. The Bank of Russia conducts operations in such a way as not to have a significant impact on the dynamics of the exchange rate. If threats to the stability of the financial market arise, the Bank of Russia may temporarily suspend these operations. This practice does not contradict the concept of a floating exchange rate regime.

Detailed information about the history of the exchange rate policy of the Bank of Russia is presented in the subsection “ Exchange rate regime of the Bank of Russia / History of exchange rate policy of the Bank of Russia» section “Monetary Policy” of the official website of the Bank of Russia.

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A floating exchange rate regime is necessary within the framework of the inflation targeting regime used by the Bank of Russia, that is, a regime in which main goal The central bank is to ensure price stability. A floating exchange rate allows the Bank of Russia to pursue an independent monetary policy aimed at solving internal problems, namely, reducing inflation.

All types of fixed exchange rate regimes in the absence of restrictions on cross-border capital movement make monetary policy dependent on the policies of other countries and vulnerable to changes in external conditions, and also increase the attractiveness of speculative transactions in the foreign exchange market. In this case, a change in the interest rate differential (the difference between domestic and external interest rates) can lead to an increase in speculative inflows or outflows of capital and the “importation” of external monetary conditions. A floating exchange rate plays the role of a built-in stabilizer: an increase in demand for currency or its supply from market participants as a result of changes in the interest differential leads to a corresponding change in the exchange rate, making speculative transactions unprofitable.

In addition, the implementation of exchange rate policy within the framework of a fixed exchange rate regime, and even more so a managed floating exchange rate, increases the dependence of the management of interest rates by the central bank on the foreign economic situation. Foreign exchange interventions of the central bank, carried out to influence the exchange rate of the national currency, also affect liquidity banking sector. Sterilization of the impact of these operations on the money market may require significant efforts by the central bank, up to the introduction of non-standard measures and instruments (in the event of a lack of market collateral from credit institutions), lead to increased tension in various segments of the financial market and increased volatility of short-term interest rates in the economy.

A floating exchange rate also makes it possible to reduce the sensitivity of the economy to external shocks, softening its adaptation to changes in external conditions. The strengthening of the national currency against the background of positive external influences (for example, rising oil prices) reduces the risks of “overheating” of the economy, and its weakening when negative impact(falling oil prices) provides support to domestic producers by increasing export volumes and stimulating import substitution. With a fixed exchange rate, the impact of external shocks on the economy is not smoothed out.

The experience of Russia in 1998 and 2008, as well as crises in other countries, indicates that pegging the national currency to a foreign one in the conditions of the modern world economy is ineffective. In the short term, it leads to the formation and growth of imbalances in the economy, but in the long term it is impossible: in the presence of powerful negative external factors an attempt to keep the national currency from weakening depletes the country's foreign exchange reserves, after which a sharp devaluation inevitably occurs. Therefore, as the national financial system the transition to a floating exchange rate becomes desirable.

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The Bank of Russia carries out exchange rate policy within the framework of a floating exchange rate regime, without interfering with the formation of trends in the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate caused by fundamental macroeconomic factors. The Bank of Russia does not set any targets or fixed restrictions on the level of the national currency exchange rate and the rate of its change. Intervention by the Bank of Russia in the situation on the domestic foreign exchange market in the form of foreign exchange interventions is possible only in exceptional cases when exchange rate dynamics pose a threat to financial stability. For example, such a situation arose in December 2014, when the excessive weakening of the ruble led to its significant deviation from fundamentally justified values, that is, those levels that are determined by the action of macroeconomic factors, primarily affecting the balance of payments: prices for exported goods, interest rate differentials rates, economic activity and other parameters. During this period, on certain days the Bank of Russia carried out sales of foreign currency. In August - December 2018, in the context of increasing exchange rate volatility, the Bank of Russia suspended the purchase of foreign currency on the domestic foreign exchange market as part of the budget rule.

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When considering the possibility and feasibility of spending reserve assets to support (strengthen) the ruble, it is necessary to take into account that the amount of reserve assets must meet certain standards in terms of its sufficiency, primarily in terms of covering import operations and payments external debt. Thus, there are restrictions on the possible volume of use of international reserves to support the ruble exchange rate. One should also take into account the short-term effect of central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market on the exchange rate of the national currency, especially in a situation where fundamental macroeconomic factors influence it in the opposite direction. Therefore, even if there was a large volume of reserve assets, such a policy would be obviously ineffective.

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The ruble exchange rate is determined by the ratio of demand for foreign currency and its supply in the foreign exchange market. The reasons for the change in the ruble exchange rate can be any factors (not only the dynamics of world energy prices) that entail a change in the relationship between the demand for foreign currency and its supply (see the answer to the question “What is the ruble exchange rate, and what factors determine its dynamics?” ).

In certain periods, factors leading to a weakening of the ruble may prevail, despite the simultaneous action of other factors that, other things being equal, contribute to its strengthening. Thus, at the end of 2013 - beginning of 2014, the interest of international investors in the assets of countries with emerging markets, including Russian assets, decreased noticeably. The reasons for this were the decisions of the Federal backup system The US is reporting a slowdown in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program (leading to slower growth in foreign exchange supply than previously), and signs of slowing economic growth in emerging markets (leading to lower yields financial investments to these countries). The effect of these factors on the sentiment of market participants and the reduction in their demand for the ruble turned out to be more significant compared to the persistence of high oil prices during this period, which led to the weakening of the ruble along with the weakening of the currencies of other countries with emerging markets. Political events in Ukraine had an additional impact on the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in 2014. Investor concerns about the consequences of the geopolitical conflict for the Russian economy led to increased capital outflows, a further decrease in demand for the ruble and its weakening. In certain months of 2018, there was also a general outflow of capital from emerging markets and, at the same time, the threat of introducing foreign countries additional measures against Russia.

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The Bank of Russia does not publish quantitative forecasts for the ruble exchange rate. At the same time, when making decisions on monetary policy The Bank of Russia takes into account possible factors that may affect the relationship between supply and demand of foreign currency in the market and lead to a change in the ruble exchange rate.

The Bank of Russia does not set any targets or fixed restrictions on the level of the ruble exchange rate and the rate of its change. The dynamics of the ruble exchange rate are determined by market factors, that is, they are formed under the influence of changes in the demand and supply of foreign currency. If the Bank of Russia publishes forecasts for the ruble exchange rate, this may be perceived as an obligation to maintain this exchange rate. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia is trying to convey as clearly as possible to the general public its policy of ensuring a floating exchange rate regime (see also the answers to the questions “What are the goals, objectives and mechanism of the exchange rate policy of the Bank of Russia?” and “Why did the Bank of Russia move to a floating ruble exchange rate?” ).

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Exchange rates can affect the economy through various channels.

First, the exchange rate directly affects domestic prices through the prices of imported goods. At the same time, the weakening of the ruble may have a stimulating effect on domestic production associated with a switch in demand from more expensive imported goods and services to domestic ones (import substitution effect). The magnitude of this effect depends on the availability of domestic goods that can replace imports, the availability of unused factors of production to expand output, and the sensitivity of demand for imported products to changes in their prices. At the same time, the decline in real income economic entities, associated with an increase in prices due to rising prices for imported products, can weaken the demand for both imports and domestic products.

Secondly, if imported goods are used as intermediate products in the production process, then increasing the cost of imports can increase the price of the final product. An increase in prices for imported investment products may have a negative impact on investment programs enterprises.

Thirdly, changes in the exchange rate can affect the price competitiveness of domestic goods on international markets. commodity markets. Thus, the depreciation of the national currency increases their competitiveness, creating the preconditions for the growth of their exports.

Fourthly, exchange rate dynamics affect the balance sheets of banks, households, and companies - their foreign currency assets and liabilities are revalued. The impact of the weakening of the national currency on financial aspects activities of organizations (increasing the debt burden, increasing the return on investments) depends on the currency structure of their assets and liabilities.

Fifthly, changes in the exchange rate can affect sentiment and expectations: the behavior of financial market participants, inflation expectations, and the propensity to save.

Changing the course also affects the condition public finance. For example, a weakening of the national currency can lead to an increase in income from foreign economic activity, in particular export customs duties on products oil and gas industry, as well as increasing revenues from VAT and excise taxes on imported goods. At the same time, budget costs for servicing external public debt. As a result, the size of the budget deficit may change.

The resulting impact of exchange rate dynamics on economic development depends on the structure of production and demand, the sensitivity of exports and imports to exchange rate changes, the degree of impact on price increases and, consequently, on the real incomes of economic entities.

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The impact of exchange rate changes on price dynamics in national currency is determined by the so-called exchange rate pass-through effect. The nature and magnitude of the pass-through effect of exchange rate changes on prices consumer goods are of great importance in the implementation of monetary policy. The relationship between exchange rate dynamics and inflation is one of the key links in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

The influence of changes in the exchange rate on the dynamics of prices in national currency is carried out through several channels: direct impact on the prices of imported final products; indirect impact - through changes in prices for domestic products due to changes in prices of intermediate imported products (used in the production of final products); changes in prices for domestic goods and services that compete with imported goods.

The nature and degree of influence of exchange rate dynamics on inflation are determined by a number of factors and can vary significantly in different market segments, for example, in the market of food and non-food products. The magnitude of the pass-through effect may depend on the share of imports in a particular market, the characteristics of pricing in it, in particular, those related to the level of competition and the sensitivity of demand to price changes. In addition, the impact of changes in the exchange rate of the ruble against the national currencies of other countries on the dynamics of commodity prices may be different. For example, the magnitude of the impact of a change in the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar may be different from the magnitude of the impact of a change in the exchange rate of the ruble against the euro or Chinese yuan.

The pass-through effect is distributed over time, that is, price dynamics in a certain period are influenced by both current exchange rate changes and its dynamics in previous periods.

Scientific research has established the asymmetry of the transfer effect. This means that domestic prices can react differently to the same magnitude of changes in the exchange rate, depending on whether the national currency is strengthening or weakening. It has also been established that the magnitude of the pass-through effect depends on the level of inflation: at lower and stable level inflation in the economy, the pass-through effect is usually lower.

The Bank of Russia in carrying out monetary policy, as well as developing its main directions for medium term analyzes factors affecting inflation, including the pass-through effect (see also the quarterly Monetary Policy Report issued by the Bank of Russia, which examines factors influencing the dynamics of consumer prices).

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Raising the question of whether a certain level of exchange rate is beneficial for a country is not entirely correct. Economic entities with different economic interests operate simultaneously in the country. For example, exporters and importers of products have opposing interests in terms of the level and dynamics of the national currency exchange rate. Weakening of the national currency, i.e. a decrease in its price relative to other currencies allows the exporter to receive a larger amount of national currency for the same amount of foreign currency. To receive the same revenue in national currency and cover its own costs, the manufacturer can sell its product on the foreign market at a lower price, which makes it easier to export. At the same time, imported goods become more expensive and the amount of national currency required to purchase a unit of imported goods at a constant price in foreign currency increases. In particular, the prices of imported goods for investment purposes are rising, which may have a negative impact on the rate of economic growth. Strengthening the national currency, i.e. an increase in its price relative to other currencies, ceteris paribus, has the opposite effect on the country’s export and import capabilities.

A planned devaluation of the national currency has begun in Russia

Since February, the Bank of Russia, at the instigation of the Ministry of Finance, has begun large-scale purchases of foreign currency on the domestic market. The purpose of these interventions, as follows from the Ministry of Finance’s leaks, is to drop the ruble exchange rate by 10% in order to mend the holes in federal budget. So far there is no panic on stock exchanges or exchangers. But the fact remains: a planned devaluation has been announced. Therefore, it is possible that the currency rush is a matter of the near future, because the actions of the Central Bank can push the dollar from the current 60 to 70 rubles.

The news that the Ministry of Finance intends to trip up the native ruble and cut its current value by one tenth has excited both financial market, and the minds of the population. How so? Once we have achieved a stable exchange rate for the national currency, we are turning back. And the dollar, which has fallen to 60 rubles, according to the Ministry of Finance’s plan, should rise again to 65–66. Maybe it's time to run to the exchange offices?

So far there has been no rush around exchangers. Ordinary Russians are in no hurry to storm banks and transfer savings from ruble boxes to foreign currency ones. "MK" asked the operator in several credit organizations Moscow and the Moscow region (state and commercial): do they have more clients getting rid of Russian banknotes? Bank employees responded that they had not noticed anything unusual: on February 1, in the first half of the day, only a few people came to change currency - no more than on other days, and with small amounts. As for the rates posted on the boards of these banks, they also did not capture the imagination. Dollar purchases and sales fell within the range of 60.7/62.8 rubles, euros - 64.5/67 rubles.

The Central Bank, for its part, also did not create confusion: official rate The next day the “American” rose by 28 kopecks, the “European” - by 75 kopecks, which, in principle, does not go beyond the normal volatility.

The atmosphere on the foreign exchange markets was also quite calm. According to the deputy head of the analytical department of Alpari, Natalya Milchakova, judging by the trading dynamics, the Central Bank did not enter the stock exchange on the first day of February.

But experts believe that we should not rush to conclusions. To the Ministry of Finance, which is responsible for budget execution, the ruble at the rate of 60 per dollar seems too strong. The treasury deficit this year is expected to be 2.8 trillion rubles. Since more than half budget revenues is foreign exchange earnings, then, based on the logic of officials, the strengthening of the Russian currency by just one ruble “washes out” billions from the treasury.

Therefore, the Central Bank will definitely buy currency, although it will undoubtedly try to do this as carefully as possible. “The Central Bank is waiting for a favorable exchange rate. Most likely, it will enter the market when the dollar drops below 60 rubles. Currency purchase volumes will range from $1–3 billion per month. In this regard, it is worth preparing for more impressive jumps in the dollar and euro exchange rates than now. Purchases of foreign currency in such volumes will allow the dollar to rise to 70 rubles, which is even higher than the level that the Ministry of Finance is striving for,” Milchakova notes.

There is another factor influencing the ruble - private investors. The intervention of the Central Bank will be a signal for other market participants. The presence of the Bank of Russia on the stock exchange will push the dollar to growth. Banks and other exchange players will closely monitor exchange rate differences and will begin to buy dollars at any opportunity, which will also negatively affect the ruble.

However, there are other options for the development of events. For example, if Donald Trump fulfills his promises and lifts or at least weakens sanctions against our country. This will be a positive impetus for the ruble, the exchange rate of which will strengthen. A number of American financial institutions predict that with this development of events, the value of the Russian national currency will increase by the same “sacred” 10%. In 2016, the Ministry of Finance made a bet on the dollar in order to save money in this currency (supposedly more reliable). Reserve Fund, and lost - its volumes fell more than three times: from $50 to $16 billion. If history repeats itself, then the Ministry of Finance’s efforts to reduce the budget deficit risk being in vain.

What should ordinary Russians do in the current situation? There is no reason to panic either in the ruble or in the dollar. It makes sense to buy dollars at long term- six months to a year. But doing this with minor fluctuations and every day is too risky. No one knows exactly when the Central Bank will go public. It is possible that when the regulator, in the process of intervention, considers the dollar exchange rate too high and decides that this threatens the achievement of the inflation target of 4%, it may begin to get rid of the currency. Then private investors who exchanged their hard-earned rubles for American money will inevitably lose.

“Now our authorities are difficult to understand. They want the ruble to be cheap and inflation to be low, but it is almost impossible to combine these,” Milchakova concludes.