Medium size wages in Russia in July amounted to 39,355 rubles, which in real terms is 4.6% more than in July 2016. Such data is contained in the monthly report on the socio-economic situation of the country. In general, for January-July the increase in size average salary in real terms amounted to 3% compared to the same period in 2016.
GDP is also growing, although not as dynamically as predicted - by only 1.5% in the first half of 2017 instead of the expected 1.7%.
However, real available cash income population of the Russian Federation continues to decline: in January-July 2017, as Rosstat notes, they decreased by 1.4% compared to same period 2016.
Real disposable money income per capita is income minus mandatory payments, adjusted for inflation.
After real cash incomes of the population stabilized in June at the level of June 2016, in July they again showed negative dynamics, decreasing by 3.1% compared to the previous month and by 0.9% compared to July 2016.
Real incomes of the population have been declining for the fourth year in a row: in 2014 the decline was 0.7%, in 2015 - 3.2%, in 2016 incomes fell by 5.9% in real terms.
There is nothing surprising in such dynamics, notes the head of the analysis center social programs and risks of the Institute of Social Policy Sergey. GDP growth is more than moderate, there are no serious breakthroughs in the economy, wage growth does not exceed 3%, the expert notes.
Besides,
Against the backdrop of an albeit small increase in wages, pensions are declining in real terms, especially after lump sum payment in January, which certainly contributes to the decline in the overall figure.
It should also be taken into account that in the current conditions, some Russians prefer not to pay taxes and go into the shadow sector, so some part of the income is not taken into account, despite the methods available to Rosstat, adds Smirnov.
According to Rosstat, in the first quarter, 13.4 million Russians, or 18.7% of the total employed, worked in the informal sector. Among men, 20.2% work informally, among women - 17.2%.
As Gazeta.Ru previously wrote, according to the results of the first quarter, the volume of shadow wages increased by 20%, to almost 2.4 trillion rubles.
According to a survey by VTsIOM, for the third month in a row, the first place in the list of problematic topics for Russians is occupied by low salaries and standard of living in general - in July they were mentioned by 24% of respondents (versus 18% in January 2017 and 14% in July 2016). One in five (21%) is concerned about the problematic state of the economy.
Another growth in the market plays a significant role in the decline in income levels consumer lending: citizens, sensing a slight increase in salaries, rushed to take out loans, increasing their credit burden, says an analyst at Alor Broker.
The share of overdue consumer loans is now officially about 21%, and unofficially it is 2 times more, he notes.
The population's debt to banks continues to grow. According to experts from the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, by July 1, 2017, the debt amounted to 11.2 trillion rubles. In 2014-2016, this figure averaged 10.5-10.7 trillion rubles.
For real incomes to grow, among other things, it is necessary that prices for goods and services grow at least at a slower pace than incomes. Now this is not happening, and there is no economic growth as such, says the head of the marketing agency Alekhine and Partners.
“So far we are only seeing a rebound from the lower point of the fall. It’s not worth talking about stable growth yet,
especially against the backdrop of new sanctions and a difficult geopolitical situation,” he said.
The tax burden, prices, housing and communal services tariffs, gasoline and other energy resources are growing, adds Korolev.
“A lot will depend on course ruble, how it will behave in early autumn: if the dollar begins to rise in price due to the actions of large corporations on foreign exchange market, then prices for imported goods will increase further, and this will again lead to a decrease in real disposable income,” the analyst notes.
Doctor economic sciences Sergei Smirnov does not expect sharp growth in the economy and real incomes of the population.
“There will be a gradual increase, breakthroughs like we saw in the 2000s. against the backdrop of rising oil, it won’t,” he notes. Then the chance to carry out real structural reforms was missed; now any transformation results in a reduction in the social burden of the state, adds Smirnov.
Korolev believes that the situation with low real incomes will persist as long as oil prices remain relatively low. “$50.7 per barrel of Brent is too little to fill the state budget, which means the state will continue to increase tax burden”, notes the analyst.
* The price includes a 10% discount when paying online. persons. When paying by non-cash payments cost - 30,000 rub.
ECC "Invest-Project" has completed the next wave of statistical research distribution of income of the population of Moscow taking into account the results of 2015 and the forecast for 2016. The study was carried out by employees of the Invest-Project ECC according to the data of the FSGS of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, independent experts with recalculation using the author’s mathematical and economic models:
- in January - May 2008,
- in January - December 2009,
- in January - September 2010,
- in February - March 2011,
- in March - May 2012,
- in April - May 2013,
- in May - June 2014
- in February - March 2016
Study population groups
The study provides indicative statistics on the income of the Moscow population by group:
- by 10 decile groups (10% of city residents) and their derivative groups
- "poorest" (10%),
- “poor” (60%),
- "middle class" (20%),
- “rich” (10%);
- for 10 one-percent subgroups (1% of city residents each) of the tenth decile group (10% of the wealthiest city residents);
- for 10 0.1% subgroups (0.1% of city residents each) 1% of the richest city residents.
In fact, this data can be used to determine target audience and calculating the possible market share for any b2c business in Moscow.
Data relevance
The data reflects the results of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, and a forecast for 2016 is provided.
Research methods
The results were obtained on the basis of methods and economic-mathematical models developed by specialists of the Invest-Project ECC for more than ten years, using initial data from these sources, adjusted for inflation, currency values, dynamics purchasing power population, cost of living, consumer spending structure, macroeconomic indicators. Custom scan on key indicators confirms the accuracy of our forecast for 2008-2015. and allows us to confidently predict the results of 2016.
Each income group of the population has its own price range for goods and services. Consequently, the degree of market saturation must be determined not only for the market as a whole, but also in relation to each income group.
According to the recommendations of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Russia (MEDT), when studying the distribution of income of the population of a region, its entire population should be divided into 10 decile groups - 10% of the population in each group in order of increasing income. At the same time, a big problem is determining the boundaries of the ranges of average per capita incomes corresponding to these decile groups in a particular region in a given period and taking into account shadow incomes.
It is important to note that the average per capita income (rubles per month per person) does not mean the total salary and not the amount of the household’s own cash income per person, but the amount of all types of household income actually spent on consumption (wages, pensions, income from the rental of housing and property, various benefits and benefits in monetary terms, dividends, income on capital and intellectual property, shadow and illegal sources of income, etc.), divided by the number of family members living together and leading a common household . At the same time, one person living separately is also considered an independent household, even if he has close relatives.
Purpose of the study
Continuous monitoring of the dynamics of per capita income of the Moscow population for 30 main income groups.
Income of the population of other Russian cities
ECC "Invest-Project" conducts analysis distribution of income of the population any major cities in Russia. The results of the analysis are used in marketing research, for example, to identify target consumer groups, their financial opportunities, the size of the average bill when entering new markets, etc., as well as when planning various socio-economic development indicators.
Excerpt from the study:
- average per capita income of the Moscow population:
- 2008: 44.8 thousand rubles. / month / person,
- 2009: 42.3 thousand rubles. / month / person,
- 2010: 48.6 thousand rubles. / month / person,
- 2011: 54.3 thousand rubles. / month / person,
- 2012: 59.4 thousand. rub. / month / person ,
- 2013: 66.5 thousand rubles. / month / person,
- 2014: 72.7 thousand rubles. / month / person,
- 2015: 70.8 thousand rubles. / month / person,
- 2016 (forecast): *** thousand rubles. / month / person
Distribution of income of the Moscow population in 2016
Against the backdrop of unfavorable macroeconomic factors, the average per capita income of the Moscow population in 2015 decreased by 12,6 %, reaching in value terms 70,8 thousand roubles. / month / person President of the ECC "Invest-Project" Andrey Lumpov: “The oligarchs were made poorer and forced to behave more modestly: in 2015, real incomes of all groups of the population fell, while the gap between the incomes of the richest 10% and the poorest 10% (decile ratio) continued to shrink, which helps reduce tension in society as a whole ". Without taking into account the income of the group of the wealthiest citizens, the average per capita income of 99.5% of the Moscow population in 2015 year was significantly less - *** thousand roubles. / month / person
At the same time, in 2016 we expect a recovery and growth in the average per capita cash income of the Moscow population by **% compared to the 2015 level.
Data can be widely used in development pricing policy companies, clarifying development strategies, determining effective demand for goods or services.
Distribution of income of the population of Moscow contains 60 pages, including 29 tables and 11 graphs.
List of tables
Table 1. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population, 2008.
Table 2. Income distribution for the 10% wealthiest city residents.
Table 3. Income distribution for the 1% wealthiest city residents.
Table 4. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2009
Table 5. Income distribution for the 10% wealthiest citizens.
Table 6. Income distribution for the 1% wealthiest city residents.
Table 7. Abbreviation nominal income by 10 decile groups in 2008 - 2009.
Table 8. Values living wages in Moscow in 2001 - 2008.
Table 9. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2010
Table 10. Income distribution for the 10% wealthiest citizens.
Table 11. Income distribution of the 1% richest city residents, 2010
Table 12. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2011
Table 13. Income distribution for the 10% wealthiest citizens.
Table 14. Income distribution among the 1% richest city residents, 2011
Table 15. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2012
Table 16. Income distribution among the 10% richest city residents, 2012
Table 17. Income distribution among the 1% richest city residents, 2012
Table 18. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2013
Table 19. Income distribution among the 10% richest city residents, 2013
Table 20. Income distribution among the 1% richest city residents, 2013
Table 21. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2014
Table 22. Income distribution among the 10% richest city residents, 2014
Table 23. Income distribution among the 1% richest city residents, 2014
Table 24. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2015
Table 25. Income distribution among the 10% richest city residents, 2015
Table 26. Income distribution among the 1% richest city residents, 2015
Table 27. Income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2016
Table 28. Income distribution among the 10% richest city residents, 2016
Table 29. Income distribution among the 1% richest city residents, 2016
List of charts
Graph 1. Dynamics of inflation and GDP in Russia, %, 2003-2016.
Graph 2. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population, 2008.
Graph 3. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2009
Graph 4. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2010
Graph 5. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2011
Chart 6. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2012
Chart 7. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2013
Chart 8. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2014
Chart 9. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population in 2015
Chart 10. Shares of income of decile groups of the Moscow population for 2016.
Chart 11. Dynamics of average per capita income of the population of Moscow, 2008-2016, thousand rubles. / month / person
No reason for growth
Recovery growth real wages in 2017 gave the authorities hope of overcoming the long-term decline in real incomes and beginning to grow. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview with Russian television channels that the growth of real wages means that “we have entered a situation where incomes are no longer falling, but growing.” He called poverty "one of the most glaring problems" of modern times. Russian economy.
The reason for the discrepancy between the dynamics of cash income and real wages is that “hidden” wages and other incomes declined in 2017 faster than observed wages grew, believes Tatyana Maleva, director of the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. “The reduction in real disposable cash income of the population with an increase in the observed wages of workers is most likely caused by a redistribution between observed and unobserved wages in favor of the observed and a reduction in the total volume of the “hidden” wage fund,” Maleva noted in the report “Social Lessons economic crisis", presented in mid-January at the Gaidar Forum.
The reduction in real incomes, traced in state statistics, can be explained by the fact that Rosstat now reports on wages at large and medium-sized enterprises, which amounts to approximately 40% of all employment, Vladimir Gimpelson, director of the Center for Labor Research at the Higher School of Economics, told RBC. “In the remaining 60%, the dynamics of real wages is still unknown to us,” he noted. According to him, economic growth is very small (according to Rosstat data for January-September 2017, growth GDP is equal to 1.6%) and is not enough to ensure income growth. “I don’t see any particular reason for great hopes,” Gimpelson concluded.
We should not expect growth in real incomes in 2018, because the growth in real wages observed in 2017 may stop, says Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. “In 2018, the dynamics of wages does not look encouraging, because most of the wages are indexed to last year’s inflation, which amounted to 2.5%. There is a risk that wage indexation will approach the 2017 inflation level, while 2018 inflation may accelerate at least in the second half of the year, and then in real terms wages in 2018 may not show growth,” Orlova told RBC.
Hopes were not justified
Rosstat also reported that retail trade grew by 1.2% in 2017 after falling by 4.6% in 2016; in December, turnover increased retail amounted to 3.1%. Industrial production in 2017, which is half as much as government forecasts. In December, industry decreased by 1.5%; in the fourth quarter, industrial production showed a decline of 1.7%. Alfa Bank lowered its GDP forecast for 2018 to 1%. “We are extremely disappointed by the fact that the recovery of the Russian economy turned out to be short-lived; just one quarter after economic growth accelerated to 2.5% year-on-year, growth rates fell into negative territory in November,” Orlova noted.
Real disposable income of the Russian population has been falling for the fifth year in a row – since 2014. In 2018, according to Rosstat, they decreased by another 0.2%. This means that Russians continue to get poorer in real terms. What does “real terms” mean? This is when, in fact, the growth of your salary or other income is depreciated by inflation - when goods and services become more expensive. That is, the nominal (not taking into account) inflation salary, and the quantity and quality of goods that you can buy with it, falls. Often, wages do not increase and the ability to buy various goods decreases even more. We have to switch to cheap products and give up some services.
The dynamics of the decline in real income from 2014 to 2018 is as follows:
Total for 5 years – 11% falls.
From 2000 to 2018, statistics on real income growth in % look like this:
| 2000 | 9,1 |
| 2001 | 8,7 |
| 2002 | 11,1 |
| 2003 | 15 |
| 2004 | 10,4 |
| 2005 | 12,4 |
| 2006 | 13,5 |
| 2007 | 13,1 |
| 2008 | 2,4 |
| 2009 | 3 |
| 2010 | 5,9 |
| 2011 | 0,5 |
| 2012 | 4,6 |
| 2013 | 4 |
| 2014 | -0,7 |
| 2015 | -3,2 |
| 2016 | -5,6 |
| 2017 | -1,3 |
| 2018 | -0,2 |
Rosstat data.
At the end of 2018, household incomes are at the levels of 2009-2010. The growth compared to 1999 is slightly more than 2 times.
Although the figures for the decline to 2009 levels look quite dramatic in themselves, some economists call 11% too optimistic, citing the fact that Rosstat often inflates “paper” figures.