Independent experts about the Belarusian economy. Russian-Belarusian news agency. Is it profitable to invest in real estate now?

4 January 2017, 08:44

Independence Square in Minsk

Belarus ended the past year with growing problems. In 2017, the country's authorities expect a powerful impetus for the economy. Experts talk about feeling for the bottom. collected forecasts for Belarus.

Belarus ended the past year with a stagnating economy and an ongoing oil and gas conflict with Russia. In his New Year's address, the President Alexander Lukashenko stated that he has high hopes for 2017: “It should become a turning point and give a powerful impetus to the development of the country.” Analysts surveyed by DW are noticeably less optimistic about the future. They made their forecasts for DW for the coming year, outlining the main trends in the economy and domestic politics of Belarus.

1. Finding the bottom in the economy

“Most of the measures planned by the government for 2017 were promised several years ago. Even if they are implemented, they are already too late.”, the editor-in-chief of Economic Newspaper noted in an interview with DW. Leonid Fridkin. He believes that Belarusians should not expect economic growth in the coming year.

Project Manager "Kosht Urada" Vladimir Kovalkin in a conversation with DW suggested that 2017 "preparing the end of the period of macroeconomic stabilization and the search for that very cherished bottom". At the same time, the expert points out that it is more likely “The leadership of Belarus will be able to keep the economy within the parameters set in the budget.”

2. Return to the promise of $500 paychecks

In his New Year's address, Alexander Lukashenko promised: “No matter what it costs us, we will significantly increase citizens’ incomes in the coming year.” December 21 upon appointment Natalia Kochanova the new head of the presidential administration, Lukashenko, voiced a more specific goal: "$500 next year average salary. With all the difficulties, no matter what it takes - steal, dig, find, whatever, but $500 must be done."

According to Belstat, in November the average accrued salary in Belarus was 717 rubles ($366 converted). The implementation of a similar demand by Lukashenko before the 2010 presidential campaign the year after the elections led to a threefold devaluation of the ruble. Economists interviewed by DW do not consider a repeat of that collapse likely.

Expert of the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies (BISS) Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky suggested that no one would seriously carry out this verbal instruction from the president: “As far as I understand, this (an average salary of $500 - Ed.) is not stated anywhere in the target indicators of program documents. This means that there will be nothing to ask the officials for.”. The expert emphasized that in order to achieve 500-dollar salaries, the printing press will have to be turned on again, inflation will start and the stability of the ruble exchange rate will decrease, “and this has already been done many times.”

Meanwhile, on December 30, Lukashenko, speaking with journalists, returned to the topic of 500-dollar salaries, clarifying : “Whoever is called to do this, but does not want to, we will part with them. Whatever it costs us, we will move towards this goal.”

3. Reforms and restructuring of state-owned companies

Each pumping of money into the Belarusian economy ended in another crisis and devaluation, driving the accumulated structural problems deeper, reminds Vladimir Kovalkin. “There is a certain risk that the authorities will succumb to persuasion and the temptation to solve the problem of growth through emissions. But such a probability is minimal as long as there is hope to receive loans from the IMF and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD),” - Leonid Fridkin is sure.

Structural reforms, the necessity of which independent economists insist, from their point of view, are possible either under the influence of external factors (the demands of foreign creditors) or as a reaction to the collapse of the economy.

Pavel Daneyko, the general director of the Minsk Institute of Privatization and Management, in an interview with DW, called the decision by the Belarusian authorities to restructure state-owned companies the main issue of 2017. Daneyko sees no other choice for the government. By the way, such restructuring is one of the main conditions for granting Belarus a loan from the IMF.

Experts interviewed by DW doubt that the authorities in Minsk will dare to massively bankrupt insolvent enterprises. “Rather, they will try to drag their feet and look for ways to correct the situation through the usual administrative measures,”- says Friedkin.

4. Continuation of the oil and gas conflict between Belarus and Russia

IN New Year Belarus entered into an unresolved dispute with Russia regarding the terms of hydrocarbon supplies. In this regard, Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of Belarus Vladimir Semashko On December 29 he told BELTA that "we remain optimistic". According to Semashko, the Belarusian government hopes “to reach a compromise solution on the oil and gas issue no later than the first quarter of 2017.”

Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky does not share the Deputy Prime Minister’s optimism. According to the BISS expert, 2016 was the last year when Belarus had more or less profitable terms purchases of oil and gas in the Russian Federation. “The profitability of Russian supplies will fall, and negotiations will become increasingly difficult,”- the expert predicts.

5. Depression, local elections and the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution

The Belarusian left intends to magnificently celebrate the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution in 2017, and the church and right-wing politicians intend to remember the victims of communist terror. Head of the Warsaw Center for Policy Analysis and Forecasts Pavel Usov in an interview with DW, he noted that Belarusians, on the one hand, are tired of living in a state of constant political depression, and on the other hand, they do not have the strength to change the situation and do not hope for the best.

“Most likely, the population will face new forms of economic coercion (such as a tax on parasitism) from the authorities, which will increase protest sentiments and discontent. But it is unlikely to find expression in open opposition to the authorities, with the exception of local riots,”- Usov believes.

For the Chairman of the United Civil Party (UCP) Anatoly Lebedko 2017 is mainly a year of risks and challenges: "For citizens - a crisis and a dead end economic policy government. For the authorities - Russian factor and the final destruction of the social contract with the population. For supporters of change, the West is rebooting relations with official Minsk."

The campaign for local council elections will begin in November 2017. First Deputy Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Oleg Gaidukevich and leader of the "Tell the Truth" campaign Andrey Dmitriev expressed hope that the elections will be held together with a referendum on changing the electoral system. From the current majoritarian system to a mixed one, providing for parliamentary elections based on party lists.

Belarus ended the past year with growing problems. In 2017, the country's authorities expect a powerful impetus for the economy. Experts talk about feeling for the bottom.

Belarus ended the past year with a stagnating economy and an ongoing oil and gas conflict with Russia. In his New Year's address, President Alexander Lukashenko said that he had high hopes for 2017: “It should become a turning point and give a powerful impetus to the development of the country.” The analysts surveyed look into the future with noticeably less optimism. They made their forecasts for the coming year, outlining the main trends in the economy and domestic politics of Belarus.

1. Finding the bottom in the economy

“Most of the measures planned by the government for 2017 were promised several years ago. Even if they are implemented, they will be too late,” Leonid Fridkin, editor-in-chief of Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, noted in an interview. He believes that Belarusians should not expect economic growth in the coming year.

The head of the Kosht Urada project, Vladimir Kovalkin, in a conversation with DW, suggested that 2017 “is preparing the end of the period of macroeconomic stabilization and the groping for that very cherished bottom.” At the same time, the expert points out that it is more likely that “the leadership of Belarus will be able to keep the economy within the parameters set in the budget.”

2. Return to the promise of $500 paychecks

In his New Year’s address, Alexander Lukashenko promised: “No matter what it costs us, we will significantly increase citizens’ incomes in the coming year.” On December 21, when appointing Natalya Kochanova as the new head of the presidential administration, Lukashenko announced a more specific goal: “The average salary next year is $500. Despite all the difficulties, no matter what it costs - steal, dig up, find, whatever, but $500 must be met ".

An expert at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS), Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky, suggested that no one will seriously implement this oral instruction from the president: “As far as I understand, this (average salary of $500 - Ed.) is not stated anywhere in the target indicators of program documents "This means there will be nothing to ask the officials for." The expert emphasized that in order to achieve 500-dollar salaries, the printing press will have to be turned on again, inflation will start and the stability of the ruble exchange rate will decrease, “and this has already been done many times.”

Meanwhile, on December 30, Lukashenko, speaking with journalists, returned to the topic of $500 salaries, clarifying: “Whoever is called to do this, but does not want to, we will part with them. Whatever it costs us, we will move towards this goal.”

3. Reforms and restructuring of state-owned companies

Each pumping of money into the Belarusian economy ended in another crisis and devaluation, driving the accumulated structural problems deeper, reminds Vladimir Kovalkin. “There is a certain risk that the authorities will succumb to persuasion and temptation to solve the problem of growth through emissions. But such a probability is minimal as long as there is hope of getting loans from the IMF and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD),” Leonid Fridkin is sure.

Pavel Daneyko, general director of the Minsk Institute of Privatization and Management, in an interview with DW, called the decision by the Belarusian authorities to restructure state-owned companies the main issue of 2017. Daneyko sees no other choice for the government. By the way, such restructuring is one of the main conditions for granting Belarus a loan from the IMF.

Experts interviewed doubt that the authorities in Minsk will dare to massively bankrupt insolvent enterprises. “Rather, they will try to drag their feet and look for ways to correct the situation using the usual administrative measures,” Friedkin believes.

4. Continuation of the oil and gas conflict between Belarus and Russia

Belarus entered the New Year with an unresolved dispute with Russia regarding the terms of hydrocarbon supplies. In this regard, Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of Belarus Vladimir Semashko told BELTA on December 29 that “we do not lose optimism.” According to Semashko, the Belarusian government hopes to “reach a compromise solution on the oil and gas issue no later than the first quarter of 2017.”

Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky does not share the Deputy Prime Minister’s optimism. According to the BISS expert, 2016 was the last year when Belarus had more or less favorable conditions for purchasing oil and gas from the Russian Federation. “The profitability of Russian supplies will fall, and negotiations will become increasingly difficult,” the expert predicts.

5. Depression, local elections and the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution

The Belarusian left intends to magnificently celebrate the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution in 2017, and the church and right-wing politicians intend to remember the victims of communist terror. The head of the Warsaw Center for Political Analysis and Forecasts, Pavel Usov, noted in an interview with DW that Belarusians, on the one hand, are tired of living in a state of constant political depression, and on the other hand, they do not have the strength to change the situation and do not hope for the best.

For the chairman of the United Civil Party (UCP) Anatoly Lebedko, 2017 is mainly a year of risks and challenges: “For citizens - the crisis and the government’s dead-end economic policy. For the authorities - the Russian factor and the final destruction of the social contract with the population. For supporters of change - a reset of relations by the West with official Minsk."

The campaign for local council elections will begin in November 2017. First Deputy Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Oleg Gaidukevich and leader of the “Tell the Truth” campaign Andrei Dmitriev expressed hope that the elections will be held along with a referendum on changing the electoral system. From the current majoritarian system to a mixed one, providing for parliamentary elections based on party lists.

Lev Margolin, economist:

– There will be no significant differences in the country’s economy compared to this year. The decline will continue. Perhaps less than this year, but there will be no growth. How significant this decline will be depends on the outcome of negotiations with Russia on oil and gas.

Regarding the course Belarusian ruble against the dollar, then if the National Bank continues its tight monetary policy, the dollar’s movement next year will be within 10% - a maximum of 20%. If a shrinking economy forces massive cash injections in the form of loans, then the rate increase could be 50% or even 100%. Everything is in the hands of the authorities.

People's wages will continue to fall. To reverse this trend, the country needs investment, primarily foreign. But they are not expected. The second way to increase wages is through massive job cuts. But the authorities most likely will not dare to do this.

Unemployment will certainly rise. Enterprises will reduce production volumes, demand for their products will continue to fall, and they will try to get rid of unnecessary ballast in the form of labor.

Anton Boltochko, economist:

– Next year is a year in which important economic and political decisions will need to be made. Without them, it will not be possible to wait out or survive the current economic situation once again.

If we nevertheless accept the inertial scenario, in which economic policy remains at the same level, in the same form as now, then we will face another year of recession and a decline in GDP. The economic picture can be called Nebrezhnev's modern Belarusian economic stagnation.

The decline in household incomes will continue, unemployment, both registered and unregistered, will increase due to the difficult financial situation enterprises. I don’t believe in the 9% inflation that the authorities are talking about. It will be higher, and its level will affect the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar.

This year it was supported by the donation of currency by the population. Next year, unfortunately, Belarusians will have less money, and as a result we will see a weakening national currency. There will be no landslide devaluation, and, most likely, the Belarusian ruble will fall in price by the level of inflation with minor deviations.

Yaroslav Romanchuk, economist:

– Next year will be more difficult than this one. The economic recession will not end. How much it will fall in 2017 – by 1% or 4% – will depend on how many conditional black swans will fly to Belarus. We will, no doubt, receive a couple from Russia in the form of supplies of oil, gas, prices for potash fertilizers and terms of trade on the Russian market. Exports will fall, there is nowhere to expect investment.

The real estate market will continue to fall.

State-owned enterprises will actively lay off workers, and unemployment in the country will de facto rise to 500 thousand people. If the company performs well, the salary of its remaining employees will be 250-400 dollars in a very good scenario. If the company falls under restructuring, 150–200 dollars will seem like happiness.

The National Bank will most likely not be able to continue its tight monetary policy as this year, and inflation will be more than 10%. A dollar will cost three Belarusian rubles, and in a pessimistic scenario even more.

The government of Belarus hopes for GDP growth of at least 3.5% in 2018. Experts' forecasts are more modest: the World Bank predicts growth at 2.1%, the IMF - 0.7%. What all experts agree with is that the expected growth will be determined not by structural changes in the Belarusian economy, but by a more favorable external environment.

The authorities are optimistic

The government expects by the end of 2017 GDP growth by 2% with a forecast of 1.7%, and at the end of 2018 - by 3.5%, said Prime Minister of Belarus Andrei Kobyakov at a meeting of the Council of Ministers on December 5 . As for inflation, the Ministry of Economy and the National Bank of Belarus expect that it will not exceed 7% at the end of 2017. Initially, the forecast of the Belarusian authorities for 2017 provided for GDP growth at 1.7% with inflation not exceeding 9%.

WB: foreign economic conditions are helping so far

The World Bank predicts that Belarus' GDP in 2017 will increase by 1.8%, inflation will be 9%, and the current account deficit will be minus 3.2% of GDP.

The moderate recovery of the Belarusian economy in 2017 was ensured by several factors, according to World Bank experts. Namely: the situation on foreign markets has improved, economic growth in Russia has strengthened, prices for commodities, which stimulated the growth of Belarusian exports and supported business activity inside the country. Important condition: hard money-credit policy And fiscal policy, which the Belarusian government and the National Bank have been carrying out since 2015.

In 2018, the World Bank expects Belarus' GDP to grow by 2.1% and inflation to be within 7.2%. The forecast for the current account deficit is minus 3.6%.

According to the bank's estimates, more favorable foreign economic conditions will continue in 2018, and this will support growth rates of 2% of GDP. Restoring income growth, in turn, stabilizes the poverty level (if we consider the poverty level as spending $5.5 a day, measured at parity purchasing power). The situation on the labor market will be difficult due to the difficult financial condition state-owned enterprises.

High tempo economic growth in Belarus, WB experts do not expect this due to structural deficiencies in the economy. Prices for imported energy resources will not be as favorable for Belarus as before. This means that Belarus will be less able to rely on Russia and high prices for raw material exports. Consequently, if a country stops developing, it will fall into a slow growth trap.

Among the potential factors for the growth of the Belarusian economy, WB experts name improving the business environment for the development of private entrepreneurship and solving the problem of ineffective state-owned enterprises. If the combination of these measures works, then Belarus will medium term may achieve higher growth rates.

Risks: debts, commodity dependence and artificial growth stimulation

In 2018, Belarus must pay $3.1 billion external debt. To do this, Belarus needs long-term financing. Previous agreements between Belarus and the Russian Federation on refinancing Belarusian debts Russian loans and the issuance of Eurobonds will provide only a temporary reduction in pressure on the balance of payments, but in the medium term, sources of a more sustainable solution to the problem are needed external financing, WB experts are convinced.

The second group of risks is related to the fact that Belarus remains dependent on oil supplies from Russia and fluctuations in world commodity prices.

Previously, significant growth in Belarus' GDP was provided by oil subsidies. In particular, in 2007 it reached 8%, ahead of all countries in the region, including Russia. In general, in some years, oil subsidies reached 15% of Belarusian GDP. The sharp decline in oil prices has reduced the size of these benefits. In 2016, oil subsidies amounted to about 4.6% of Belarus’ GDP, 9 percentage points lower compared to the previous year, which had negative consequences for economic growth rates, WB experts note.

Figure 1: GDP growth rates: Republic of Belarus, Russian Federation and ECA region, 2000-2016

Figure 2: Amount of “energy subsidies” and dynamics of real GDP, 2004-2016

Source: employee calculations World Bank based on Belstat and PMR data.

Another serious risk, which, according to World Bank experts, may threaten macroeconomic stability in Belarus is artificial stimulation of GDP growth and administrative wage growth.

Figure 3: Components of economic growth: contribution to real value added growth in GDP, percentage points, 2006-2016

Figure 4: Capital stock, return on capital, and GDP per capita (current US dollars), 2005-2016

Source: World Bank staff calculations based on Belstat data.

IMF: negotiations on a new program are frozen

The IMF raised its forecast for Belarus' GDP dynamics in 2017 to 0.7% (from minus 0.8% in the April review). At the same time, the fund’s experts expect that inflation in Belarus at the end of 2017 will be at the level of 8%, not 9.3%. The forecast for the current account deficit of Belarus in 2017 has been worsened to minus 5.3% of GDP (the previous forecast was minus 4.7% of GDP).

According to the fund’s experts, the main stimulus for the growth of the Belarusian economy was the improvement in dynamics in the region and in Russia in particular. At the same time, they especially note the positive impact of the oil and gas agreements signed with Russia in April 2017.

In 2018, the IMF predicts GDP growth in Belarus by 0.7%, inflation at 7.5%, and the current account deficit of Belarus at minus 4.6% of GDP.

Let us recall that in 2015-2016 Belarus negotiated with the IMF on new program cooperation, involving a loan of about $3 billion at 2.28% per annum for 10 years, with the conditions that Belarus will quickly carry out reforms in payment for housing and communal services and the public sector. The Belarusian authorities did not dare to reform. They found alternative sources of external loans, albeit more expensive ones. In June 2017, Belarus placed 7- and 10-year Eurobond issues with a total volume of $1.4 billion and received 3 tranches of a Eurasian loan in the amount of $800 million. And in August, it attracted a 10-year loan from the Russian government in the amount of $700 million.

Negotiations on a new program with the IMF have stalled. In November 2017, the next IMF mission to Belarus ended. Consultations were predominantly technical in nature.

Experts: growth has hit a ceiling, the depreciation of the Belarusian ruble is predetermined

Director of the IPM Research Center Alexander Chubrik at the conference " Economic environment for business development" on December 20 noted that the recovery of the Belarusian economy began in 2017, which was facilitated by the cyclical component, growth in domestic demand and exports. According to his estimates, in 2017 Belarus' GDP will grow by 2.3%, and in 2018 by 2.5%.

The expert emphasized that in 2017, the growth of non-oil exports of Belarus was facilitated not only by the recovery of the Russian economy, but also by the weakening of the real effective exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. “The ruble is gradually depreciating, and the competitiveness of Belarusian goods does not seem to be deteriorating - of course, this primarily concerns Russian market", he noted.

The expert predicts that the role of Belarus’ non-oil exports will decline. By the end of 2018, oil export growth will be about 40%, which is quite significant contribution in GDP.

Real GDP growth in Belarus will begin to slow down in the first quarter of 2018, believes A. Chubrik. According to his estimates, in 2018 the growth money supply in Belarus will slow down, and there will also be some weakening of the Belarusian ruble following the Russian ruble. The exchange rate in the fourth quarter of 2018 will be 2.07-2.08 rubles to the dollar. Will remain tough monetary policy. Inflation is expected to accelerate slightly by the end of 2018, which will lead to a revival of the consumer market and a possible increase in housing and communal services tariffs.

Senior Researcher at BEROC Dmitry Kruk believes that the growth observed in 2017 national economy This should hardly be considered a restoration of growth; rather, it is a way out of a long recession and a return to a period of stagnation, the end of which is not yet in sight.

“The key problem is that all of our growth has been based on the accumulation of fixed assets. We accumulate capital and continue to do what we know in large volumes. But this model is exhaustible. We have an acute lack of productivity,” the expert stated.

For this reason, the possible growth of the national economy is 2.5% - 3.5%. “At the same time, growth could drop to minus 5% if the burden of accumulated debts or some other problems affects it,” says D. Kruk.

According to his estimates, in the coming years Belarus will lag behind the countries of the region, with the exception of Ukraine. “The economy is failing to fulfill its purpose—to increase incomes and ensure growth in well-being,” D. Kruk emphasized.

As a consequence, low productivity within the Belarusian economy leads to the depreciation of the national currency. Productivity is important for competitiveness. “If technological advantages do not provide an advantage, then price factors. There is a steady trend toward the depreciation of our currency. It is predetermined by the fact that we lack productivity,” said D. Crook.

If productivity is lacking, then the real exchange rate must obviously continue to depreciate. The average annual rate over the past 15 years has been about 3 percentage points. in year. “My conservative assessment: the trend will continue, and the depreciation will proceed at a slightly slower pace. An depreciation of about 2% per year may be enough to compensate for lost productivity,” the expert believes.

According to his calculations, taking into account expected inflation of 6% per annum, the depreciation of real exchange rate at 2% and inflation in neighboring countries at 2%, to maintain competitiveness the Belarusian economy will need a devaluation proportional to inflation - that is, approximately 2%.

“Where does this lead? We will continue to depreciate. This means that in dollars, nominal indicators will be the barrier that we have hit. Our real growth is very small - 2%, and it is being eaten up by devaluation, albeit small. This growth regime leads to a competitiveness deficit and conservation of real growth. This growth scenario is not acceptable,” stated D. Kruk.

How Belarus will pay off debts in 2018

Belarus' foreign currency payments on the national debt in 2018 are estimated at a total of more than $3.7 billion: $2.5 billion is needed to repay the principal debt, more than $1.2 billion is needed to service it.

To this end, Belarus plans to attract $1.2 billion in borrowings from the foreign and domestic markets in 2018. Including, by the end of the first quarter of 2018, to receive the 6th and 7th tranches of the EFSD loan (note that the only international financial institution, with which Belarus now has credit program, is the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development), as well as Eurobonds worth $600 million on the foreign market and raise $400 million on the domestic market, said the Minister of Finance of Belarus Vladimir Amarin December 18. In the first case, these will presumably be new Eurobonds, in the second – foreign currency long-term bonds of the Ministry of Finance with circulation in Belarus.

In 2017, the Ministry of Finance entered the foreign Eurobond market - $1.4 billion (Eurobonds were placed in two tranches with a yield of 7.125% and 7.625%). According to V. Amarin, including in order to fulfill obligations in this year and for the second tranche of Eurobonds in January 2018 in the amount of $800 million.

“Next year we plan to complete our placement of Eurobonds, total amount which was planned in the amount of $2 billion. Of this, we raised $1.4 billion this year, with another $600 million remaining. I think we will come out with this placement in the first quarter of next year,” the minister noted.

At the beginning of December, V. Amarin said that in 2018 Belarus does not exclude the possibility of placing bonds on the Russian and Asian markets. According to him, when placing bonds in Russia and Asia, “the amounts will be incomparable with Eurobonds, because these are different markets and conditions.” “In the range of up to $500 million in total in two markets. But we have not yet gone deep enough into these processes to know the amounts. It’s still being worked out,” he said. And he added that Belarus is striving to diversify borrowing instruments in order to be not only on the European Eurobond market.

The Ministry of Finance notes that servicing the state debt of Belarus is entirely carried out at the expense of general budget revenues. Non-debt sources, that is, export customs duties on petroleum products (this is $486.5 million), as well as foreign currency balances of the republican budget in the amount of $850 million, generated from the placement of Belarusian Eurobonds this year, will be used to repay the foreign currency public debt.

For 2018, it is proposed to approve the limit on internal government debt Belarus in the amount of 10 billion rubles, and the limit on the external public debt of Belarus is in the amount of 19.6 billion dollars. “If the specified limits are observed, the indicators economic security on the national debt at the end of 2018 will be met. The ratio of public debt to GDP will not exceed 44.5%, and the debt of the public administration sector - 46.9%, with threshold values of economic security of 45% and 50%, respectively,” noted V. Amarin.

Many people directly connect their future with the prospects of the country in which they took root. Of course, every person is, but it is difficult to imagine life in a state outside of the events taking place in it. Therefore, it is not surprising that insightful citizens of the Republic of Belarus, and neighbors who are not indifferent to the fate of the fraternal people, are not averse to looking into the forecasts addressed to Blue-eyed by eminent seers.

Vanga’s predictions predict stability and increase in the Republic of Belarus economic potential. However, against the backdrop of positive growth, it will not happen without a planned onslaught from Western countries eager to bring chaos into the life of a calm state. If you do not repel the attacks of ill-wishers in a timely and correct manner, the serene existence of the country will be in jeopardy.

According to the psychic Miron, Belarus in 2017 will continue its slow but confident path of successful development. Particularly noticeable achievements will be achieved in the field of economic and trade relations with neighbors, primarily with Russia. Despite minor internal fluctuations associated with rising unemployment levels, by the end of the year the country will reach new stage formation.

Astrologer Grim supports his colleagues, not promising any significant shocks to the Republic of Belarus in the coming period. Small threats that may come from outside will be adequately reflected. Relations with Russia are only destined to grow stronger in 2017, despite the attempts of some spiteful critics to provoke conflicts between friendly states.

Pavel Globa echoes most forecasts and predicts the absence of serious financial and political vicissitudes for the Belarusian people. A gradual recovery from the crisis will help strengthen positions in the international market. Belarus will express a desire to join the Eastern European bloc, the creation of which, according to the astrologer, is expected in 2017. Uniting with strong allies will lead the country to a new stage of development, associated with the partial adoption of state and economic fundamentals existing in Russia.

Besides the diviners making positive forecasts for Belarus for 2017, there are representatives of secret knowledge whose predictions are not so rosy. For example, the seer Furia promises the country a difficult and tense period. The dictatorial regime will strengthen, people will begin to immerse themselves more and more in crisis, which over time will manifest themselves in general rallies and strikes.

Against the backdrop of the local unfavorable situation, a conflict with Russia will arise, which will be taken advantage of by its Western neighbors. However, not everything is so hopeless here: timely and in the right direction diplomacy will allow one to avoid confrontation and resolve contradictions with one’s closest ally in the near future.

Brisina Julia based on materials from open sources especially for the site