(proposals on the formation of individual pension capital and tax reform have been sent by the White House for long-term revision). On Monday, the law on the new rules was signed by President Vladimir y.

A significant change from the original version is the replacement of the fund, on the basis of which the government will accumulate reserves. Initially, it was proposed to keep the Reserve Fund and transfer funds from the National Welfare Fund to it, abolishing the latter.

In this case, the NWF would have retained for some time funds earmarked for large infrastructure projects. Against , which considered that the proposals contained "risks to ensure co-financing of voluntary pension savings citizens of the Russian Federation, a balanced budget, as well as financing self-sustaining infrastructure projects.

Already by the second reading in the State Duma, in mid-June, the Ministry of Finance agreed to a compromise - instead of the NWF, the Reserve Fund would be abolished. All its balances, if there are any at the end of this year, will be transferred to the NWF. In the meantime, the budget for 2017 plans to fully deplete the Reserve Fund at the end of this year to finance the budget deficit.

The Ministry of Finance made concessions so easily for practical reasons - the multitasking of the goals of the NWF has already formed a large layer of regulatory documents that would have to be rewritten after the transfer of the NWF money to the Reserve Fund. On the contrary, the risk of wasting savings from potential lobbyists who want to increase spending on infrastructure projects is limited in the law signed by Vladimir Putin.

Recall that in 2013, 972.5 billion rubles. were reserved for 12 infrastructure projects. Another 300 billion rubles. — quota also for various projects. The rest is considered liquid funds of the NWF, which are placed in the gold reserves or on the deposits of VEB, and .

According to the new law, all old projects have been confirmed, but additional spending of NWF funds on something other than the budget deficit is possible only after they reach the threshold of 7% of GDP. According to the Ministry of Finance, as of June 1, the NWF is 4 trillion 192 billion rubles, or 4.7% of this year's GDP.

Limit costs

Another important limitation for budget policy- limiting spending by the level of an acceptable deficit of 1% of GDP.

For 2018 provided transition period when the deficit is allowed to exceed just above 1%. This principle is already incorporated into the project. federal budget for 2018-2020, the main parameters of which were formed by the government on June 29. Then the government approved spending in 2018 at the level of 16.222 trillion rubles. Revenue next year will amount to 14.659 trillion rubles. The deficit is estimated at 1.563 trillion rubles, or 1.6% of GDP. For 2019 and 2020, the deficit is already capped at 0.8% of GDP.

Against this background, all budget approvals this summer were surprisingly quiet. In July, the prime minister held ten conciliation meetings on federal budget spending, none of which led to the scandalous controversy that has been so common in years past. The only contentious issue is whether to renew the program maternity capital and in 2020, was resolved immediately - the program was extended, but its indexing was frozen in 2018 and 2019.

But this year's passive budget campaign has nothing to do with the budget rules, or with the quality of the limits of budget appropriations presented by the Ministry of Finance for the coming three-year period. Government observers say members of the current cabinet, which will be dissolved immediately after the new president takes office in 2018, are not making long-term plans.

No one in the White House has yet received invitations or guarantees to take part in the new government. There is also no information about the upcoming economic program future president. Consequently, the calculations required for new program budget spending make it difficult. It was decided to spend August in the White House in mass vacations. All discussions on budget expenditures have been postponed until the fall - in September, clarity may appear both on the economic program of the president and on personnel decisions.

Least of all in the government believe in another postulate, which follows from the budget rules signed by the president. It provides for the formation of reserves from oil and gas revenues that exceed the base oil price of $40 per barrel of Urals oil in 2017 prices, which will be indexed starting from 2018 by 2%. So in 2018 base price will be $40.8, and in 2035 - $57. However, according to forecasts, the price will not exceed $40 per barrel until 2019.

The budget rule is economic policy, which determines the marginal value of government spending depending on the price of oil. Following this strategy makes it possible to avoid a state budget deficit in the event of sharp fluctuations in the oil and gas market.

The budget rule is an economic strategy in which the planned expenditure includes the marginal cost of oil and gas resources, which determines the amount of government spending. Cash, entering the treasury in excess of this amount, are sent to reserve funds. Accordingly, if hydrocarbon prices do not reach the planned value, the budget is subject to cuts to achieve a deficit of no more than 1 percent of GDP.

In 2004, against the backdrop of a sharp rise in prices for hydrocarbons, it was decided to prevent a possible pumping of the state budget with petrodollars. For this purpose, the Reserve Fund and the so-called "cut-off price" were formed. If the cost of a barrel of oil reached $20 (in 2006 - $27), the excess profits automatically went into savings, which made it possible to provide a "safety cushion" in the event of a crisis: and it came already in 2008

The meaning of economic strategy

Budget rule - what is it and what is its main essence? With hydrocarbon prices soaring, politicians are tempted to decide social problems countries and engage in populism at the expense of the rain of petrodollars that have spilled onto the fertile ground of social tension. But, as practice shows, investments in healthcare, education, housing, infrastructure do not bring immediate returns, while long-term projects require rhythmic and multi-year investments.

In order to tie the hands of populists and secure a reserve for the future, in countries that are overly dependent on the oil and gas market, a special rule is introduced to fill the budget. A "base price" of hydrocarbon resources is set, on the basis of which the maximum amount of government spending is planned. The deficit can be only a certain value of the planned income (in the Russian Federation - 3.7% of GDP).

This rule provides a number of advantages:

1. The emergence of wealth funds due to excess profits and unplanned income from the growth of exports of raw materials;
2. Smooth and gradual implementation of socio-economic projects;
3. Rapid adaptation of the country's spending to the price environment;
4. Formation of monetary reserves, designed to ensure the fulfillment of government obligations in the event of a crisis.

Due to a sharp drop in oil prices, the BP was canceled in 2016. Instead of filling the Reserve Fund, the state began to drain it intensively. Thus, by August 1, 2016, Russia's "stash" amounted to only $38.18 billion, against $91 billion available as of September 1, 2014. According to calculations, a barrel of oil under the current policy should have been about $80, which is far from reality.

Principles of operation of the budget rule in Russia:

1. limit value budget deficit - 1% of GDP;
2. Hydrocarbon prices are calculated based on objective economic indicators, not forecasts;
3. The maximum amount of oil and gas revenues that can be used to cover the needs of the state budget is 3.7% of GDP.

Budget rule in Russia in 2017-2018

Since its recent appearance, the considered economic principle once underwent significant changes, and in 2016 it was completely frozen. In 2017, the BP can again be used to accumulate the Stabilization Fund. This prospect was publicly voiced by A. Siluanov, Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation. Profits generated when the price of a barrel of oil exceeds $50 will be transferred to reserves - if there is "public support" for that.

The updated principle is designed not only to “untie” the economy from oil dependence, but also to rid the Russian ruble of sharp fluctuations. Its exchange rate against world currencies will receive a tougher "ceiling", above which it will not be allowed to rise. This measure can hardly be called popular, since it does not contribute to lowering the prices of imported goods as Russian ruble.

Criticism of the restriction policy

Many analysts believe that the formation of reserves at the expense of excess profits is an idea that has no future, since resources are actually frozen. Instead of being channeled to lucrative projects, the money remains in limbo for years. When the turn of the crisis comes, the funds are used to pay off social tensions and again do not provide GDP growth.

In other words, the budgetary rule of filling the revenue part of the state budget does not lead to a radical restructuring of the economy, but to the accumulation and freezing of problems. To feel this fully, you can look at the example of Venezuela. High hydrocarbon prices, it was thought, allowed the country to cure many “chronic diseases” in a 10-year period: employment, overcrowding in cities, inaccessibility of education.

But a two-year decline in the price of oil has caused old difficulties to flare up again. Due to the deep dependence of the population on state subsidies, all social achievements collapsed within a few months. It should be noted that the economic policy in the Russian Federation turned out to be much more balanced, and instead of total impoverishment, the country faced only a significant correction of income. But without deep reforms in the financial and economic policy, Russia may also suffer the fate of Venezuela.

Calculations of the Ministry of Finance on the main parameters published budget system and the exchange rate of the ruble in the implementation of the "temporary budget rule" since February. With an oil price of $55 per barrel, the estimated equilibrium exchange rate of the ruble will amount to 58.05 rubles/$ without converting excess revenues, while implementing this policy it will be 64.9 rubles/$. The budget, according to these calculations, is balanced at an oil price of about $58 per barrel and an exchange rate of about 64 rubles/$. Actually finance ministry assumes the devaluation of the ruble in the current situation by approximately 10%.

Reuters, the main channel of information for foreign exchange market operators, published the official calculations of the Ministry of Finance on the main parameters of the budget, depending on the application of the "budget rule". Recall that the rule as such can be included in the Budget Code in 2017 and assumes various options conversion of part of the oil and gas revenues of the federal budget in sovereign funds, depending on the price of oil. After a meeting with President Vladimir Putin on January 18, from mid-February, a temporary, until the adoption of amendments to the BC, a hard budget rule is put into effect (see Kommersant of January 21). The budget for 2017, calculated on the basis of an oil price of $40 per barrel, is not corrected. The Ministry of Finance through the operations of the Central Bank stores on currency accounts of the Treasury in the Bank of Russia excess profits from oil exports and is ready to spend them (in accumulated volumes) regardless of the expenditure of the Reserve Fund and the Fund national welfare(NWF) when oil falls below $40.

Based on the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, with oil at $40 per barrel, the estimated average annual exchange rate of the ruble should be 69.42 rubles / $ (the federal budget deficit is 3.1% of GDP, spending of reserve funds is 1.8 trillion rubles). At the current oil price of $55 per barrel, the budget deficit will amount to 1.5% of GDP without applying the budget rule, and the expenditure of reserve funds will amount to 464 billion rubles. (which assumes the non-use of the NWF in 2017). When applying the declared regime of constant purchase of reserves to the Treasury accounts, the deficit will be 0.7% of GDP, reserve fund will be replenished by 241 billion rubles, the ruble exchange rate should weaken by about 10% and amount to 64.9 rubles / $.

The logic of the calculations of the Ministry of Finance suggests that without the application of the budget rule and without the devaluation of the ruble, the balance of the federal budget is possible only with an oil price of $76 or more (the figure was obtained by a linear approximation of the calculations of Anton Siluanov's department). With a controlled devaluation of the ruble, which formally does not affect the free float regime, the budget is fully balanced (zero deficit) at an oil price of about $61 per barrel, the refusal to use sovereign funds is possible in 2017 at an oil price of about $61 per barrel. Without the fiscal rule, sovereign wealth funds would be replenished at oil prices above about $62 per barrel, with the rule applied, at prices above $53. The difference in the calculations is determined, apparently, by the calculated changes in borrowings in the domestic market. In the latter case, with oil prices above $53, additional oil revenues in the "buffer fund" at a rate of about 64 rubles / $ will exceed the estimated spending of sovereign funds in 2017 by 1.8 trillion rubles.

According to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, the current exchange rate, about 60 rubles / $, is considered impossible. With the implementation of the "budget rule", it will reach this level with oil of about $75-80, with a budget surplus of about 2% of GDP and an increase in the Reserve Fund in 2017 by more than 2.3 trillion rubles. Thus, the statements of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank that the budget rule "in general" will not affect the ruble exchange rate are convincingly refuted by the financial department's own calculations.

MOSCOW, July 14 - RIA Novosti. The State Duma at a plenary session on Friday adopted in the second reading a government bill on new design budget rule and on the merger of the National Wealth Fund (NWF) and the Reserve Fund on the basis of the NWF.

budget rule

The cut-off bar for the price of Urals oil in the updated budget rule is set at $40 per barrel. Oil and gas revenues received at a price above this bar will be directed to reserves.

The draft law defines the maximum volume of federal budget expenditures, which cannot exceed the amount of oil and gas revenues calculated on the basis of the base price for oil, the base export price for natural gas and forecasted exchange rate, non-oil and gas revenues, as well as public debt servicing costs. The base price for Urals oil is set at $40 per barrel in 2017 prices and is subject to annual indexation by 2% since 2018.

FNB + Reserve Fund

In the second reading, amendments were made to the draft law on the merger of sovereign funds of the Russian Federation on the basis of the National Welfare Fund. Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev explained that such a merger is expected in conditions where the Reserve Fund is predicted to run out against the background of oil prices that have fallen significantly over the past two or three years.

At the same time, the target component of this fund remains the same as the goals of the previous two funds: financing aimed at balancing the insurance pension system, financing the federal budget deficit and co-financing voluntary pension savings. It is supposed to form a joint fund at the expense of additional oil and gas revenues.

If the total amount of funds in the pooled fund exceeds 5% of GDP, it is proposed to limit its use to falling oil and gas revenues, if the total amount of funds is less than 5%, then limit this amount to 1% of GDP.

The amendments provide that the funds of the Reserve Fund are credited to the NWF (combined fund) no later than February 1, 2018. The Ministry of Finance will monthly publish information on the value of the assets of the National Welfare Fund at the beginning of the reporting month, the transfer of funds to the specified fund, their placement and use in the reporting month.

According to the approved amendments, until the volume of the NWF funds placed with the Bank of Russia is reached, at the end of the next fiscal year and (or) the first and (or) the second year of the planning period 7% of the projected volume of GDP, placement of NWF funds in other financial assets is not allowed, except for the financing of self-sustaining infrastructure projects started before January 1, 2018.

The new fiscal rule, which should restore strict approaches to the use of oil and gas revenues from 2020, will base on the price of oil at $40 per barrel and will take into account the cost of servicing the public debt

Finance Minister of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov (Photo: TASS/Alexander Astafiev)

No primary deficiency

A new fiscal rule​​ - a system of rules for the use of oil and gas revenues - will come into effect from 2020, will set the base oil price at $40 per barrel and will limit budget spending so that it must equal base income minus interest expenses on debt servicing, at the Moscow Financial forum on Friday Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov. “The preparation of the fiscal rule, which we believe is possible to implement from 2020, will be that at $40 a barrel we should have a zero primary deficit. That is, all those debt service costs that we will put into budget expenditures will just be the deficit that we can afford, ”said Siluanov, an RBC correspondent quoted him as saying.

In other words, under the new budget rule, the Ministry of Finance will calculate oil and gas revenues at a price of $40, add projected non-oil and gas revenues to them (this amount will be considered basic income) and plan budget expenditures so that they are no higher than basic income, not counting interest payments on duty.

The new version of the fiscal rule will be the fourth since the introduction of such public finance management practices in 2004.

The old budget rule, which was in effect from 2013-2015, meant that marginal budget spending was equal to basic income plus 1% of GDP. The new rule will replace this 1% with the amount of interest expense, which is now just within the 1% of GDP. According to the law on the budget for 2016, interest expenses this year are planned at the level of 646 billion rubles, or 0.8% of GDP. The primary budget deficit (deficit excluding debt servicing costs) is planned at 2.2% of GDP, and the Ministry of Finance wants no primary deficit from 2020.

Why $40?

According to the old rule, the base oil price for calculating oil and gas revenues that can be used to finance budget expenditures was defined as the average annual price of Urals oil over a five-year period with an annual increase of this period by one year up to ten years (averaging over a ten-year period should have started from the budget 2018). Surplus profits (oil and gas revenues from the excess of real prices over the base) were transferred to sovereign funds. The rule worked on growing oil prices, but in 2015 the estimated oil price under the fiscal rule was $96, while the actual price fell to $50. Therefore, the budget rule was suspended for 2016, and instead temporary rules were introduced (valid until February 1, 2017) that allow spending oil and gas revenues and savings from reserve funds to finance federal budget expenditures.

Now it is proposed to use in the budget rule instead of average price oil for previous years conservative price of $40 per barrel. This price was taken because it corresponds to the profitability threshold for shale oil production in the world ($40-50), explains a high-ranking federal official familiar with the plans of the Ministry of Finance. According to him, soon the department wants to submit a legislative initiative to the new Duma in order to introduce a budget rule from 2020. A representative of the Ministry of Economic Development told RBC that the document had not been received by the ministry.

The average price of Urals in January-August 2016 was $39.36 per barrel, and in August it exceeded $40 per barrel ($43.9). If the new budget rule were in force now, the reserve fund could be replenished in August.

The issue of the cut-off price - $40 or closer to $50 - has yet to be discussed in the government, a federal official tells RBC. The Ministry of Finance proposes to index it annually for dollar inflation (in 2014 it was 1.6%, but in 2015 it was only 0.1%), a source close to the Ministry of Finance told RBC earlier. In general, the fall in oil prices and volatility in foreign exchange market forced the Ministry of Finance to take a different look at the purpose of the budget rule. Its meaning should be broader than just an opportunity to stabilize state finances, the task is to “isolate the economy from oil price volatility,” says a source in the government’s financial and economic bloc. The idea is “to ensure that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble does not fluctuate so much along with oil prices and that relative prices in the economy, inflation, exchange rate conditions and everything that affects the profitability of companies in different sectors do not fluctuate so much.”

“We are guided by the fact that our budget deficit should gradually decrease by one percentage point annually. If we choose $40 as the cutoff price, then we arrive at balanced budget by 2020, if we choose $50, we come to 2019. Depending on what the cut-off price will be, the moment will be determined when the budget rule will work fully, ”says an official from the financial and economic bloc.