The exchange rate is falling due to currency purchases, capital outflow and cheaper oil.
The Russian currency is in a state of permanent weakening. Since the beginning of spring, the dollar has risen in price by more than 15% - from 55 to almost 64 rubles. Now there are even more reasons for the further collapse of the “wooden” one. The “war of tariffs” unleashed by the United States against the whole world, capital outflow and unstable oil prices could lead to the fact that by the fall the value of the American banknote will exceed the 70 ruble level.
The reasons why the ruble exchange rate has been steadily falling for the past four months are both external and internal. IN Lately the main lever of pressure on the exchange rate is the so-called “duty war” - exchange economic restrictions, which is currently happening between the United States and China, as well as the United States and the European Union.
At the end of May, President Donald Trump announced the introduction of customs duties of 25% on goods imported into the States from the Middle Kingdom. Subsequently, the increase in duties also affected aluminum imported to the United States, including from the EU countries and Russia.
Europe and China responded with their own defensive instruments. For example, from June 22, the European Union will begin levying tariffs of 25% on a range of American goods. China made a similar decision a week earlier. Russia has also joined them - according to the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Oreshkin, our country will tighten its duty policy towards the United States due to losses from duties on steel and aluminum.
Against the backdrop of confrontation in the international space, the Russian currency progressively fell in value. If at the beginning of March, when Washington’s claims to Beijing took on real shape, about 55 rubles were asked for a dollar, now the quotes for the “American” are around 64 rubles. This happened due to a fall in stock prices of large domestic export companies, which indirectly affected the exchange rate of the Russian currency.
Our currency also feels additional negative pressure due to increased capital outflow - in December 2017, the Central Bank raised its estimate of this indicator for 2018 from $10 billion to $16 billion, and three months later raised it to $19 billion. By the way, capital flight was observed for the currencies of most developing countries, Chinese, Indian, Mexican and Turkish businessmen actively transferred their funds abroad.
Meanwhile, as First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov said, the dollar exchange rate could drop to 50 rubles, but this scenario is prevented from developing budget rule which limits costs federal budget. The fact is that the base price of oil included in the budget is about $41 per barrel. The Ministry of Finance directs oil and gas revenues in excess of this level to the purchase of foreign currency, which subsequently goes to replenish the Fund national welfare. In the first five months of the year, Siluanov’s department purchased currencies worth 1.3 trillion rubles. In June, similar operations promise to be record-breaking - the Ministry of Finance plans to spend almost 380 billion rubles for these purposes.
Adding fuel to the fire are oil prices that have caught up last month fall in price from $80 to $74 per barrel. Considering that at the next OPEC+ summit, which will be held in Vienna on June 22-23, a decision may be made to increase the production of raw materials, the price of oil risks falling back to the area of $60-65 per barrel, and the Russian currency, the key to a strong exchange rate of which is the hydrocarbon component , may fall to 70 rubles per dollar and higher.
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This page collects information from various sources attempting to predict the dollar's exchange rate for the foreseeable future. Take this no more seriously than a horoscope: the only reliable knowledge that can be obtained by delving into such predictions is that it is simply impossible to accurately predict the exchange rate.
Unfortunately, forecasts are not available at this time.
Forecast on the relationship between oil and the ruble exchange rate
There is an opinion that the exchange rate of the dollar or euro (or rather, the exchange rate or strength of the ruble as a currency) is closely related to the price of oil. Some minds look at the oil price chart and try to predict the rise or fall national currency, based on corresponding price movements for this energy carrier.
We analyze quotes for both in real time and publish here simple odds that reflect the presence or absence of a linear correlation between them.
Pearson ratio chart for the last 30 days: oil and dollar
Pearson coefficient = -0.9232
There is a correlation.
If the Pearson coefficient in absolute value tends to unity, and the points on the graph above tend to line up in a diagonal line, then we can judge the presence of a linear correlation in the interval under consideration. Below we provide a graph of the monthly history of these odds.
History of fluctuations in the Pearson coefficient over the past year
It can be seen that over time the correlation may appear stronger, or it may disappear or even be reversed. So oil is just one of the factors and not always very significant.
In summary, there is no exact way to predict the dollar exchange rate. On the Internet you can unearth more complex calculations, articles and even books on this topic. Traders in the foreign exchange markets use their models, trained using machine learning, a bunch of factors tested in forex battles. But they all work only under certain conditions and for certain purposes. At the layman's level, they are almost useless.
There are also a lot of sites on the Internet with outright trash. I saw a resource with many tables with forecasts for a week, month, year - any period. By all indications, all these tables are simply generated by random numbers. And even in this form, this analysis is still suitable for the average person. Because no one knows the future and everyone makes mistakes.
This page presents the official dollar exchange rate set by the Central Bank Russian Federation. Also, for your convenience, there are graphs of exchange rate dynamics according to the Central Bank data and changes by date.
Data is updated every minute.
Let us remind you that the US dollar (usd) is accepted in almost all countries
By subscribing to updates, you can always follow the official dollar exchange rate in the Central Bank online and track adjustments for the month. Information from the central bank will be of interest to citizens various categories: businessmen, investors, business owners.
One of the ways to make money on the difference in the dollar exchange rate is to trade on foreign exchange market Forex, which requires training and serious experience, as well as installation of a special software. You can make a significant profit by playing on the difference in the dollar exchange rate only if the introduction into circulation is quite large sum of money. The risks of such operations are very high; you should think seriously before plunging into the abyss of currency speculation.
Why is it impossible to make payments in dollars in Russia?
There are certain types of payments that are allowed to be carried out in Russia in dollars, but for the most part they relate to legal entities.
In order to improve the level economic development and international authority, Russia is interested in ensuring the stability of its national currency, so transactions with dollars are limited.
The latest forecast for the US dollar to ruble exchange rate for 2018 - a table with currency forecasts by month. Expert opinion on the prospects for the USD/RUB pair exchange rate in Russia.
Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast. Will there be growth?
Here's how he assesses the dollar's prospects for the fall and winter of 2018 Kira Yukhtenko, chief editor of InvestFuture and stock columnist:
Until we see the final version of US sanctions against Russia, it will not be easy for the dollar to firmly gain a foothold below 65 rubles. There is too much uncertainty for investors. We do not know whether the sanctions will affect Russian state-owned banks and whether a ban will be introduced on the ownership of Russian government bonds.
In my opinion, the following scenario is likely: in November the ruble will face increased volatility. After the elections to the US Congress on November 6 and the meeting between Trump and Putin on November 11, the American side will return to discussing sanctions. During this period, the dollar can rise above 70 and even above 75 rubles.
In fact, sanctions may not be as harsh as the market fears. And if the price of Brent oil remains at least above $70 per barrel until the end of the year, the ruble will have a chance to strengthen in December.
However, do not let your guard down: economists are warning of a new global crisis already in 2019-2020. If the gloomy forecasts come true, everyone's currencies will suffer developing countries, including the ruble
What will happen to the dollar/ruble exchange rate in 2018?
Dollar/ruble chart (Weekly)
No one can accurately predict the dollar exchange rate - too many factors simultaneously participate in its formation. But, taking into account the high foreign policy risks and structural problems in the Russian economy, experts agree: the ruble exchange rate may continue to decline in the fall and winter of 2018.
At the end of 2018, the dollar to ruble exchange rate may rise to 73-75 rubles. If you want to buy currency for savings on long term, listen to the advice of economists: any depreciation can be used for purchases
Risk factors for the ruble
- Federal backup system(Fed) continues to raise interest rates, which puts long-term pressure on the currencies of all developing countries
- Waiting for the final package of anti-Russian sanctions from the United States in November 2018. Additional sanctions from the EU and UK are also possible.
- Possible decline in oil prices - the United States insists that Russia and Saudi Arabia “bring down” the price by increasing production
- Trade wars around the world - a slowdown in growth for all is possible largest economies peace
Factors supporting the ruble
- The Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate in September 2018, and also suspended currency purchases for the Ministry of Finance as part of the budget until the end of the year. This decision allowed the exchange rate to stabilize in September.
- Until the fall, the price of oil continued to rise thanks to the OPEC agreement, as a shortage formed in the market.
Economists believe that the positive factors listed above will limit the potential for the ruble to weaken in the coming months. Without them, the Russian currency would be in danger of falling more rapidly.
Dollar forecast for 2018 by month. Table
Based on the forecasts of 11 stock analysts, we compiled average forecasts for the USD/RUB pair by month. The data in the table is given at the end of the month.
| Month | Average forecast at the end of the month, rub. |
| October 2018 | 67,98 |
| November 2018 | 70,39 |
| December 2018 | 68,25 |
Forecasts for the end of 2018 by month
Dollar forecast for October 2018
The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for October 2018 is 67.98 rubles. October may turn out to be a difficult month for the ruble: we are waiting for details of US sanctions against Russia and fighting panic within the country.
Dollar forecast for November 2018
The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for November 2018 is 70.39 rubles. On November 6, elections to the US Congress will take place, and after this date, Republicans and Democrats can resume discussion of anti-Russian sanctions.
Dollar forecast for December 2018
The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for December 2018 is 68.25 rubles. The market is focusing on the last Fed meeting of the year, which will clarify the central bank’s plans for 2019.
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Additional information and services
Below are provided additional features, items open when clicked. If you have any difficulties or questions, you can find answers to the most frequently asked questions, as well as ways to solve problems that may arise when using stock exchange information and other services on this page.At the top there is a block with the official exchange rates of the Central Bank of Russia for today and tomorrow. Data is updated daily on weekdays, on weekdays from 13 to 15 hours. Dollar exchange rate December 28, 2019 calculated on the previous day based on the results of the weighted average exchange price at 11:30 and published on the website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Broadcast official courses currencies from the server of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the following instruments:
USD - dollar exchange rate, EUR - euro exchange rate, UAH - hryvnia exchange rate, BYR - Belarusian ruble exchange rate.
Please note that the Ukrainian hryvnia exchange rate is published by the Bank of Russia at the rate of 10 hryvnia, and the Belarusian ruble rate is calculated at 1000 units. Full list exchange rates of the Central Bank of Russia for today and tomorrow, you can see in the table of the currency informant
| Lit. code | Units | Currency | Course on 27/12 | Course on 28/12 | Change | |||
| USD | 1 | U.S. dollar | 61.77 | 62.03 | +0.26 | |||
| EUR | 1 | Euro | 68.50 | 69.03 | +0.53 | |||
| UAH | 10 | Ukrainian hryvnia | 26.52 | 26.33 | -0.19 | |||
| BYN | 1 | Belarusian ruble | 29.43 | 29.49 | +0.06 | |||
| KZT | 100 | Kazakhstan tenge | 16.31 | 16.30 | -0.01 | |||
| JPY | 100 | Japanese yen | 56.38 | 56.66 | +0.28 | |||
| AUD | 1 | Australian dollar | 42.80 | 43.15 | +0.35 | |||
| AZN | 1 | Azerbaijani manat | 36.41 | 36.56 | +0.16 | |||
| GBP | 1 | UK pound | 80.21 | 80.83 | +0.62 | |||
| AMD | 100 | Armenian drams | 12.92 | 12.95 | +0.03 | |||
| BGN | 1 | Bulgarian Lev | 35.04 | 35.32 | +0.28 | |||
| BRL | 1 | Brazilian real | 15.13 | 15.29 | +0.17 | |||
| HUF | 100 | Hungarian forints | 20.63 | 20.87 | +0.24 | |||
| DKK | 10 | Danish kroner | 91.74 | 92.52 | +0.78 | |||
| INR | 100 | Indian rupees | 86.67 | 86.99 | +0.31 | |||
| CAD | 1 | Canadian dollar | 46.96 | 47.34 | +0.38 | |||
| KGS | 100 | Kyrgyz soms | 88.30 | 88.75 | +0.44 | |||
| CNY | 10 | Chinese yuan | 88.26 | 88.62 | +0.37 | |||
| MDL | 10 | Moldovan lei | 35.81 | 36.06 | +0.26 | |||
| NOK | 10 | Norwegian kroner | 69.39 | 70.00 | +0.61 | |||
| PLN | 1 | Polish zloty | 16.08 | 16.22 | +0.14 | |||
| RON | 1 | Romanian leu | 14.34 | 14.46 | +0.11 | |||
| SGD | 1 | Singapore dollar | 45.59 | 45.83 | +0.24 | |||
| TJS | 10 | Tajik somoni | 63.71 | 63.98 | +0.27 | |||
| TRY | 1 | Turkish lira | 10.40 | 10.45 | +0.05 | |||
| TMT | 1 | New Turkmen manat | 17.67 | 17.75 | +0.08 | |||
| UZS | 10000 | Uzbek soums | 64.85 | 65.18 | +0.34 | |||
| CZK | 10 | Czech crowns | 26.92 | 27.10 | +0.19 | |||
| CHF | 1 | Swiss frank | 63.02 | 63.43 | +0.41 | |||
| ZAR | 10 | South African rand | 43.60 | 44.02 | +0.42 | |||
| KRW | 1000 | Won of the Republic of Korea | 53.18 | 53.47 | +0.30 | |||
In the center of the page there is an interactive chart where you can view hundreds of instruments in real time financial market. The selection of the most popular instruments is presented in the “watchlist” column, which is located to the right of the chart; when you hover the cursor, a tooltip appears with a description of the selected instrument.
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Convenient tools for technical analysis, allow you to make calculations on a web page without using a trading terminal or additional software. Flash display technology streams data with the lowest possible latency for a web interface. Stock charts online. RTS, EURUSD, SP500 index chart online. Quotes online
The list of instruments includes the most liquid and popular indices, stocks and currencies. Using the window for manually entering an instrument ticker, you can independently select the instrument you need.
Ticker USDRUB- dollar exchange rate online on the stock exchange
Ticker UKOIL- Brent oil quotes online
Ticker SPX500- online quotes of the S&P500 index
Ticker RTS- chart of the RTS index traded on the Moscow Exchange
Ticker DXY- dollar index chart online
Ticker NAS100 - online schedule NASDAQ 100 index
Ticker GBPUSD- online chart of quotes for the British pound/US dollar pair
Ticker EURUSD- online chart of quotes for the euro/US dollar pair
Ticker XAUUSD- gold quotes on the stock exchange in real time
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The Moscow Exchange, as well as other exchanges and the interbank Forex market, broadcast quotes on weekdays on weekdays; trading is not held on Saturday and Sunday. Therefore, these days the charts are static and reflect the state of the market at closing on Friday.
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In world practice, the most common type of displaying stock exchange information on charts is considered to be Japanese candlesticks. The advantage of this type is that the chart displays maximum information about price behavior in a specified period of time (time interval). To construct a candle, four price values are taken - the opening price, the maximum price, the minimum price, and the closing price. The body of the candle (rectangle) is constructed as follows: the opening price is a horizontal line, the closing price is also a horizontal line, but depending on whether the closing price is lower or higher, the body of the candle begins to be drawn and if the quote decreases, the candle is filled in red , if quotes on the stock exchange are rising, the candle turns green.
Very important point in Japanese candlesticks, this is information about both highs and lows (price spikes), which leave “tails” on the candle or are also called “candle shadows”. These shadows show what value the quote reached during the selected period of time, but by the close of the candle the quote rolled back and on the chart we only draw a “shadow” in the form of a vertical line.
Thus, Japanese candlesticks are on stock charts They allow you to clearly see the direction of movement of quotes and their highs and lows, which is impossible to see on a regular line chart, which is plotted using only one point - the closing price.
The dollar exchange rate, as well as quotes for Brent oil, other currencies and financial instruments, very often differ on different sites, for several reasons. First of all, you need to understand on which website the dollar exchange rate is broadcast online. For example, very often, quotes on websites are broadcast with a delay of 15 minutes - this is one of the main reasons why quotes may not match the values on our website.
It is also important to understand from which source the data is being broadcast. For example, on our website you can see the dollar exchange rate online 24 hours a day, even at times when trading is not taking place on the MICEX. This is due to the fact that the page displays the weighted average dollar exchange rate from the interbank foreign exchange market, which operates around the clock and is not an exchange market. When currency trading begins on the MICEX, quotes on Forex and on the Moscow Exchange become almost identical, due to the work of algorithms and arbitrage strategies of traders that eliminate inefficiencies in the market and quotes on Forex and on the MICEX take on identical values. You can see something similar if you look at currency trading on the spot market and on the futures market, the charts will be the same, there will only be a difference in quotes due to the specifics of the futures contract.
There is another important point that explains why quotes can vary significantly between Brent oil and other futures. The fact is that futures are traded in series that differ in delivery date, for example, futures with delivery in December, March, June and September can be traded at the same time, and their quote values will be different, since they reflect price expectations in different calendar periods . It follows that if it is now December and the date is approaching the expiration of the December oil futures contract, then on one site you can see the price of $70 per barrel, and on the other $72, because on the first site the quotes of the current old contract, and on the other site updated the contract and already shows March futures.
So, let's summarize. Quotes may vary on different sites for several reasons: broadcast is delayed, different data sources, different futures contracts, technical glitches. As for the quotes of currency pairs on the interbank market, it is worth remembering that the Forex market is not centralized and is not regulated by the exchange; quotes are generated by banks and liquidity providers independently, using different sources and filtering systems, so quotes on Forex obviously cannot be the same in different sources, in contrast to exchange instruments, the correctness of which can always be checked on the official websites of the exchanges where this or that exchange is traded financial instrument.
Dollar exchange rate online
Instrument ticker on USDRUB charts. To understand the formation of the dollar exchange rate online, you need to familiarize yourself with the following definitions. There are two main instruments traded on the Moscow Exchange in the MICEX currency section. USDRUB_TOD is an instrument that is traded from 10:00 to 17:15 (Moscow time), during the purchase and sale of which funds in US dollars are purchased and sold in lots for Russian rubles during trading in US dollars for Russian rubles with a maturity date on the day of the auction. The second instrument is USDRUB_TOM - trading time ticker, which is from 10:00 to 23:50 (Moscow time), during the purchase and sale of which funds in US dollars are purchased and sold in lots for Russian rubles during trading in US dollars for Russian rubles with the deadline for fulfilling obligations on the first working day in the country of location of the settlement bank and in the Russian Federation following the day of trading. Thus, at stock exchange trading in Russia, the dollar exchange rate is traded in these two instruments.Exchange rates for today December 28, 2019 is updated daily on working days of the Moscow Exchange and is published, including on our website, on this page. The fixed dollar exchange rate from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is most often needed by companies that make payments in foreign currency, ordinary individuals and private traders are more interested in exchange prices. The fact is that when opening a brokerage account, an investor gets direct access to trading in the foreign exchange section, where he gets the opportunity to make purchase/sale transactions not at the set price of the Central Bank, but at the current exchange quotes, which provides a number of advantages for making money on the exchange.
After the exchange closes, trading continues on the interbank forex market, trading takes place on the USD RUB currency pair around the clock, this allows you to generate a flow of quotes in real time and provide visitors to the page with the dollar exchange rate online 24 hours a day from Monday to Friday. During the opening of trading on the MICEX, traders in banks begin to carry out transactions in the currency section of the exchange from 10:00 to 23:50 (Moscow time), at this time quotes on the charts are the most accurate due to high liquidity and the work of algorithmic strategies. However, in Asian trading session traders begin to trade USD RUB and by watching the numbers before the opening of the MICEX, one can with sufficient high share probability of predicting the opening levels of trading on the Moscow Exchange. Also, using the real-time dollar exchange rate, you can independently calculate the Central Bank exchange rate, which is calculated based on the price at exchange currency trading at 11:30 Moscow time.
The events taking place in the foreign exchange market in December 2014, when the dollar exchange rate rapidly rose to a historical high, instantly reaching the level of 79 rubles, attracted the attention of citizens who had previously not been interested in trading on the stock exchange. Brokerage companies working with the Moscow Exchange, as well as forex dealers, began to actively offer services to the public for opening accounts for independent trading on the exchange. In 2015, exchange rates traded in a wide range from 49 to 70 rubles, the last day of trading of the year closed at the historical maximum of both the fixed dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank and the non-exchange market, the dollar reached 75 rubles, and the euro exchange rate was 80 rubles. The first full working day of 2016, January 11, was also remembered by traders as the day of new highs in the foreign exchange market and a collapse in stock market, exchange rates reached 76 and 83 rubles, respectively, the MICEX index at the opening lost more than 3%, but by the end of the trading session, the fall decreased and remained at 2.5%.
Euro exchange rate online chart in real time
Instrument ticker on EURRUB charts. Euro is means of payment member countries of the European Union, and is also in circulation in 9 more European countries, not part of the European Union. Thus about this cash it can be argued that it is uniform for the whole of Europe. It is a fairly young currency, but since 2006 it has surpassed the dollar in value. The currency is managed by the ECB - central bank Europe. The ESCB, the system of European central banks, has similar rights. The system is made up central banks countries of the European Union. There are minor but important differences between them in that the issue of coins and banknotes is carried out by the ESCB, and financial policy determined by the ECB.To view the euro exchange rate online on Forex, you can use various platforms. If you trade forex and are interested in EURRUB quotes, then you have the opportunity to monitor the exchange rate in real time directly on the website. The site also contains a variety of charts that allow you to track the dynamics of price changes and make forecasts for further changes in quotes. The exchange is equipped with all the tools for convenient trading that will help you understand the market situation online. You can also track the euro exchange rate online on the website of the Moscow Currency Exchange (MICEX). Exchange rates here are also updated in real time and there are charts of changes in EURRUB quotes.
Sberbank of Russia. If you are an individual and decided to buy or sell foreign currency, this transaction can be carried out at Sberbank of the Russian Federation. The bank provides preferential quotes for those who activate the appropriate service packages, which can be found out in more detail on the official website of Sberbank. There is also a small nuance in that the online euro exchange rate is constantly changing, and purchase/sale is carried out at the rate that is in effect at the time of the actual debiting of funds, and not at the one that you saw at the time of the transaction. Like any self-respecting resource, there are exchange rate charts here.
Oil exchange rate online in real time
Instrument ticker on UKOIL charts. Based on the price of oil, one can determine trends in investor sentiment in the commodity market; in turn, the price of oil affects exchange rates, especially for those countries that produce mainly raw materials, not finished products, however, this is not always the case. For example, Russian ruble strengthened in March 2015, although Brent oil prices went down during this period. The online oil exchange rate allows you to understand the market situation and predict future events, since in modern realities everyone is interested in how much oil costs in this moment and what its cost will be in the future.Oil production. Russian oil Brent brand is considered to be of lower quality compared to American WTI oil; it is distinguished high density and high sulfur content in percentage. Currently, oil sales are carried out on the basis futures contracts, their introduction was initially met with rejection, but when sellers and buyers felt all the advantages of this system, this system gained sympathy among many manufacturing companies. After the introduction of futures contracts, oil pricing left the hands of OPEC (the organization of petroleum exporting countries), which had a monopoly on this right until the mid-eighties of the last century.
Pricing. Changes in oil prices are influenced by many factors. The most important thing, as with any product, is the relationship between supply and demand, but it doesn’t stop there. The price of oil is also undergoing changes due to investor sentiment. Among the most influential reasons for price changes are the growth of the global economy and geopolitical risks, but the online oil rate can be influenced by global oil reserves, weather on the territory of the fields, changes in exchange rates (the influence also appears in reverse side), the discovery of new sources of production, the influence of OPEC.
Oil course online. Changes in oil prices in real time can be tracked on many resources; a complete picture with many charts can be provided by the forex exchange website. Here you can track the dynamics of price changes, forecasts for the near future, and also draw conclusions about what awaits tomorrow.
Dollar index online
On our real-time chart, the dollar index is broadcast under the ticker USDOLLAR; this financial instrument is traded on the international currency exchange and is the equivalent of the DXY stock index. As a rule, stock quotes are publicly broadcast with a delay of 10-15 minutes, so for your convenience we have chosen the USDOLLAR streaming chart, which is completely identical to the dollar stock index and only differs in points. The dollar index allows you to clearly observe the behavior of the exchange rate on one chart American currency to all major currency pairs, which can undoubtedly have a positive impact on your trading on the USDRUB pair.Instrument ticker on DXY charts. Any market index used in stock, derivatives or other markets valuable papers should be understood as a tool for averaging prices for all traded instruments. The presence of an index allows you to determine the state of the market trend at a given time in order to make decisions on transactions for individual assets. Therefore, such an index serves as a valuable predictive trading tool. For Forex market in 1973, when floating exchange rates were introduced American dollar and the price of gold after the collapse of the Breton Woods system, the dollar index USDX (United States Dollar indeX), also designated by the ticker DXY, was developed. From now on, for the entire period of trading on the Forex market from Monday to Friday, a continuous round-the-clock calculation of DXY is carried out based on data on exchange rates of the Forex market.
The dollar index is usually calculated as a weighted geometric moving average of the rates of the single European currency - the euro and monetary units Canada, Great Britain, Japan, Switzerland and Sweden against the US dollar. Predictive value of USDX as analytical tool, allowing us to determine the overall movement of the Forex market is unusually high and should be the result of a synthesis of a fundamental and technical approach to analyzing the market situation. Using the USDX index as a predictive tool for analyzing exchange rates on Forex is a synthetic combination of technical and fundamental analysis. The fundamental component of the method of using USDX as an analytical tool is to determine the “absolute” price of the dollar in terms of its relationship with other currencies. The technical side of the issue is that graphically the dollar index represents a curve to which all known methods of technical analysis are fully applicable. The DXY index is thus an average indicator of overall market movement, the more common name for which is the term “trend”. Then the currencies should move in line with this trend movement and, therefore, the dollar index should rightfully be considered a trend indicator. Let us explain this using the example of two European currencies - Swiss franc and euro.
Practical use of USDX. Every practicing trader knows about the existence of a correlation between the rates of individual currencies, which can be either direct or reverse. With direct correlation, exchange rates move in the same direction; with reverse correlation, they move in the opposite direction. The euro and the Swiss franc are in a state of inverse correlation and when the euro exchange rate rises against the American dollar, the Swiss franc rate, on the contrary, decreases. The dollar exchange rate as a whole, demonstrated by its index in this case, shows a downward, “bearish” dynamics. When the US dollar rises, everything happens exactly the opposite.
Another aspect of using USDX in practice is its use as an independent trading instrument– futures on this index. The ICE exchange (short for Intercontinental Exchange), located in Atlanta, has the maximum trading volume for the DXY instrument. In conclusion, we can give an example of another dollar index that exists along with USDX. Such an index is the TWDI, also called the trade-weighted index, which is calculated by the US Federal Reserve. Its difference from DXY is based on the fact that the exchange rate value of the US currency is calculated in relation to a broader currency basket consisting of the national currencies of states that are US trading partners. However, due to the fact that the composition of this basket of currencies is not constant, the TWDI index itself is a variable value and for this reason cannot serve as a technical analysis tool.
Online gold rate
The instrument ticker on the charts is XAUUSD. Purchasing precious metals is a great way to preserve and increase your wealth. At the moment, the dollar exchange rate has reached its highest level in the last quarter of a century, but is still growing. The online gold rate does not undergo big changes, there are no jumps in it, which means the risk of all kinds of risks when investing is significantly reduced. XAUUSD price quotes are stable and predictable, which predisposes to long-term investments in order to save and increase their resources.Factors influencing the exchange rate. Although the gold rate is stable and shows stable growth, small roughness still occurs, because the market cannot exist without risks, but they are so small compared to other rates that they are easy to neglect. Gold prices are affected by changes in global economic growth, and prices are also affected by changes in investor sentiment. You can track the gold rate online on various resources; if you are a forex player, you can easily track the rate thanks to the numerous statistical calculations provided by the exchange. Thanks to the stability of gold prices, quotes are easily forecast for several days, and sometimes weeks, in advance.
Feasibility of investment. As has been mentioned more than once above, oil prices are stable, so investing in this a precious metal are relatively safe and most appropriate, especially if you are looking for material for long term investment. Gold is of little interest to traders and speculators, because speculative tactics and strategies work little here due to the high rate stability. Yellow metal prefers a conservative approach, only in in this case you can get a benefit, even if it is not as big as when actively playing on the foreign exchange market, but stable, it is unlikely that you will lose your savings when investing in gold - for this you need to try very hard. Investing in gold guarantees that you will remain with your money in any case, since gold prices are one of the few stable things in this unstable world.
The day of many Russians begins and ends with searching for information about current rate currencies Its magnitude affects our financial opportunities. The cost of imported goods and medicines, the cost of foreign travel, the cost of foreign cars and much more depends on it. The exchange rate is formed as a result of trading on currency exchanges. On them, money plays the role of a commodity that is bought and sold. Supply and demand determine the value of currencies in relation to each other. This is what is called the exchange rate. This value is not constant. It changes its value throughout the trading session.
Until the 30s of the last century, the exchange rate of national currencies depended on the gold reserves of states. Each monetary unit corresponded to a certain gold equivalent. This approach to valuing the national currency changed with the introduction of the gold-currency system. Gold was replaced by a reserve currency, the role of which was chosen by financiers to be the US dollar. The ratio of the value of national monetary units to the dollar has become a fundamental factor in determining the exchange rate of national currencies.
Foreign exchange interventions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the foreign exchange market
Issues related to currency regulation are the responsibility of the Central Bank. He chooses the option of establishing the national currency exchange rate, which can be fixed or “floating”. The first is established officially. It means how much the state is willing to pay for a particular national currency of other countries. This rate is taken into account when concluding international treaties.To maintain a fixed exchange rate, the Central Bank has to maintain constant trading operations for buying or selling currency within the limits of its reserves. This exchange rate regulation is called motto policy. A “floating” exchange rate involves its regulation by exchange trading. In practice, there is no absolutely free market formation of exchange rates. The Central Bank always keeps its finger on the pulse of fluctuations exchange rates and with his intervention tries to keep them within a certain corridor.
As currency regulation methods such as discount policy, devaluation, currency dumping or revaluation are used. The essence of discount policy is to change the discount rate, which affects the inflow or outflow of capital from the country. Raise discount rate in cases where they want to strengthen the national currency and ensure its growth.
Every year the Central Bank of the Russian Federation develops a strategy for its monetary policy, which determines the form and methods of currency regulation. It takes into account the state of the domestic economy and the processes occurring in the global financial system. In 2016, the Central Bank plans to increase the discount rate and maintain inflation at 4%. The rate of decline of the ruble can be slowed down by a reduction in capital outflow from the country and a decrease in demand for currency. Many international analysts predict that oil prices will begin to rise in 2016. This could have a serious impact on the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate.
The impact of the dollar exchange rate on the Russian economy
Settlements under international agreements are carried out in foreign currency. About 53% of foreign trade turnover is made up of settlements with EU countries. This determines the need Russian economy In Euro. Together with the US dollar, the euro is the second reserve currency. The tangible dollar impact on the Russian economy is associated with oil prices, which are tied to this currency. The state of the Russian economy largely depends on fluctuations in the exchange rate of these two main currencies.The low exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble reduces budget revenues and the competitiveness of products of Russian producers. The fall in the ruble exchange rate stimulates domestic producers. Prices for imported goods and raw materials are rising and they are becoming less affordable for buyers and producers.
A negative consequence of the depreciation of the domestic currency is the inevitable increase in inflation. It is associated not only with an increase in the price of imported goods, but also with other factors. Many domestic goods contain an imported component. This could be raw materials, materials, components or packaging. They contribute their percentage of the increase in price to the price of the product. Domestic manufacturers and retailers are also taking advantage of the moment. When the dollar rate rises, they strive to raise prices for their products to the level of imported goods and receive additional income.
The impact of Brent oil prices on the ruble exchange rate and the Russian economy
The exchange rate of the Russian currency has a significant dependence on the price of oil. Profits from the sale of oil and gas account for almost half of the country's budget and a third of GDP. The fall in oil prices leads to a decrease in budget revenues. Weak ruble allows them to compensate for their losses when the price of oil declines. When converting dollar revenue, they receive, when the value of the domestic currency falls, the same income in ruble equivalent as with a higher price and a low dollar exchange rate.By lowering the exchange rate of the national currency when the price of oil falls, the state seeks to “get” the missing ruble budget revenues. The instability and unpredictability of oil prices does not make it possible to make long-term forecasts of the ruble exchange rate and implement serious programs for the development of the country's economy. Since 2016, the Government has switched to annual budget planning.
Many economic experts believe that a serious decline in oil prices could lead to a collapse financial system. Not all resource-based economies, whose budgets were filled with proceeds from oil sales, will be able to survive the protracted oil crisis. Russia faces difficult times. The only way to stabilize the domestic economy can be its structural changes. It is extremely difficult to carry them out in a short time without long-term, cheap investments. Time will tell whether Russia will cope with the challenges of global crises.