Ways to solve demographic problems
Demographic policy is a purposeful activity government agencies and other social institutions in the field of regulation of population reproduction processes. Includes a system of goals and means to achieve them. Demographic policy is an integral part of the general socio-economic policy and, at the same time, it is an integral part of population policy. All three types of policies differ in the areas of regulation.
Social economic policy is aimed at regulating the entire set of internal conditions, processes and aspects of the life of society.
Population policy, being a direction of socio-economic policy, aims to manage the development of population as a broad process of creation, formation and development of a subject of social life. It covers:
1. impact on the reproduction of the population (it can be called demographic policy);
2. impact on the process of socialization of the younger generations (preparation for labor activity, preschool education, general education and special training, vocational guidance, moral education, familiarization with the values of world culture, etc.;
3. regulation of a set of working conditions (setting boundaries and general scope of employment, regulation of the length of the working day and periods of work and rest, labor protection, regulation of professional and qualification growth and retraining work force etc.);
4. regulation of migrations and territorial structure the population and the implementation of other measures on which the whole complex of labor and recreation depends;
5. impact on General terms life of all segments of the population (housing legislation, health policy and medical care, regulation of the scale, structure and direction of free time, etc.).
Demographic policy is an organic component of population policy. The objects of demographic policy can be the population of the country as a whole or individual regions, socio-demographic groups, population cohorts, families of certain types or stages of the life cycle.
IN general view the goals of demographic policy are usually reduced to the formation in the long term of the desired mode of population reproduction, the preservation or change in trends in the dynamics of the size and structure of the population, fertility, mortality, family composition, resettlement, internal and external migration, qualitative characteristics of the population (that is, achieving a demographic optimum ).
The main directions of demographic policy include: creating conditions for combining parenthood with an active professional activity, reducing morbidity and mortality, increasing life expectancy, improving the quality characteristics of the population, regulating migration processes, urbanization and resettlement of the country, state aid families with children, social support disabled, elderly and disabled, etc. These directions should be aligned with such important areas social policy such as employment, income regulation, education and health care, vocational training, social Security.
Demographic policy measures can be grouped into three large groups:
1) economic measures: paid holidays and various benefits for the birth of children; allowances for children depending on their number, age, type of family; loans, credits, tax and housing benefits, etc.;
2) administrative and legal: legislative acts regulating marriages, divorces, the situation of children in families, maintenance obligations, protection of motherhood and childhood, abortion and the use of contraceptives, social security for the disabled, employment conditions and working conditions for working mothers, internal and external migration, etc.;
3) educational and propaganda measures designed to shape public opinion, norms and standards of demographic behavior, a certain demographic climate in society.
The principal feature of demographic policy is that it influences the dynamics of demographic processes not directly, but indirectly, through human behavior, through decision-making in the field of marriage, family, childbearing, choice of profession, employment, place of residence, etc. Demographic policy measures affect both the formation of demographic needs, which determine the specifics of demographic behavior, and the creation of conditions for their implementation. The particular complexity of demographic policy as part of social management makes it necessary to take into account and coordinate the interests of different levels: individual, family, group and public; local, regional and national; economic, socio-political, environmental and ethno-cultural; immediate, medium and long term.
The effectiveness of demographic policy is determined by the speed of achieving the set goals at the lowest possible cost to society and in compliance with the social norms in force in it. The conditions for the effectiveness of demographic policy are the complexity of implementation, focus on the long term, and the sustainability of the implementation of measures.
IN international practice as a tool for assessing the effectiveness of socio-economic programs, determining the priorities of both social and demographic policies, the so-called. Human Development Index is a statistical indicator developed within the framework of the United Nations Development Program.
Solving the problems of demographic development in Russia and abroadIn accordance with the results of statistical and mathematical calculations and forecasts, we will hypothesize that an increase in the level of GDP production, living standards, basic indicators of employment and other economic indicators capable of returning the demographic situation in Russia to that stage of the "demographic transition" at which it was interrupted in the early 1990s with the onset of the economic, social, and demographic crises. Thus, prospective tasks fall into two groups. The first group of tasks is relevant at the present time and is being solved at the stage of Russia's exit from the demographic crisis and return to the track of the "demographic transition". The second group of tasks is related to the long-term perspective and the beginning of Russia's movement after the countries that have gone the farthest along the trajectory of the "demographic transition", especially in terms of reducing mortality and increasing life expectancy. Of course, moving behind these countries, Russia will inevitably face the threat of population aging, balancing the birth rate at a relatively low level that does not ensure natural reproduction, and problems in the field of immigration.
It can be concluded that an increase in the birth rate and a decrease in mortality to levels close to those observed in the late 1980s may occur as a result of GDP growth and standard of living to the corresponding values. This means that the basis of demographic policy for the coming years is the growth of production, employment, incomes of the population, an increase in housing construction and its real affordability for the population. That is, demographic policy in a broad sense is all economic policy. Nevertheless, this does not mean that the state has the right to refrain from conducting a demographic policy in the narrow sense - solving specific problems of population reproduction by methods that have long been tested in France and other foreign countries and were partially used in our country until 1991.
First of all, it is necessary to strengthen the stimulation of the birth rate by increasing family benefits in connection with the birth and upbringing of children to levels comparable to living wage(based on each child of the corresponding age). The costs that may be imposed on the state budget in this case are incommensurable with the future damage from depopulation, if measures against this latter are not taken without delay. Of course, you also need special programs development of health care, improvement of working conditions, combating domestic injuries and other measures to combat mortality.
In addition, you need:
meeting the needs of families in pre-school education services;
affordability of housing for families with children;
stimulation of the birth rate - the provision of maternal (family) capital, flexibility of forms ..., a ban on the promotion of abortion, strengthening the family, improving material living conditions;
improving health, especially for young people;
reduction of mortality (fight against alcoholism, drug addiction);
promotion medium duration life (combating mass diseases, raising prosperity, improving health);
strive to change moral values when the priority family life there is a need not for a water child, but for several;
in love with children;
it is necessary to raise the prestige of a large family.
In addition to the above measures, efforts to form attitudes towards self-preservation behavior may be useful, healthy lifestyle the life of the population.
The strategic goals of the migration policy are based on the priorities, which are: maintaining the demographic, labor and defense potential, geopolitical balance, normalizing the proportions of resettlement, primarily the settlement of poorly developed and border areas, etc. Implementation of an effective policy in the field of regulating migration and population, in particular , involves the use of the migration potential of the CIS and Baltic countries in the interests of the demographic development of the Russian Federation, the effective protection of the rights of forced migrants and refugees throughout the country, and the promotion of the integration of forced migrants into Russian society.
Profiling still needed various categories immigrants to Russia and the transition to a differentiated system of privileged attraction to the territory of Russia of compatriots (repatriates) from among the representatives of the indigenous peoples of the Russian Federation and countries that are in integration relations with it - at present it is Belarus - with the appropriate provision of their housing, work, all kinds of social benefits (similar to Germany and Israel), limited admission, based on strict criteria, all other categories of foreign citizens (regardless of their origin from the CIS and Baltic countries or other countries). Among the criteria for admission of the last category of migrants to Russia may be family reunification, good reason to obtain political refugee status, the availability of capital to invest in Russian economy, the presence of scarce Russian market labor specialties and qualifications (similar to the United States and a number of other countries). It is also advisable to introduce quotas for the last category of immigrants and pursue a tough policy of deportation of persons who are unreasonably (illegally) in the territory Russian Federation. When conducting migration policy, it should be borne in mind that the reception and decent accommodation of desirable (privileged) categories of immigrants should be massive and serve as a replenishment demographic losses Russia (in particular, negative natural increase) and the improvement of the quality of its workforce as a result of the influx of qualified specialists and persons with sufficient high level education.
In the mid 1970s. birth rates in the "old" and "new" world practically coincided. Changes in institutional control over the sphere of sexuality and childbearing were also unidirectional. The spearhead of youth unrest in the second half of the 1960s. on both sides of the Atlantic was not least directed against forms of such control unacceptable to the new generation. Although the "May Revolution" of 1968 in Paris ended, as it seemed then, with the defeat of the youth who rebelled against the "system", just a few years later, both in Europe and in the United States, a significant liberalization of family and reproductive legislation began. This happened partly because in the thermonuclear era the "demographic competition" of the great powers lost its military-political relevance, and partly because of the revision of state functions that had begun everywhere.
Legislative acts legalizing abortion were adopted: in England in 1967, Denmark and the USA - in 1973, Sweden - in 1974, France - 1975-1979, Germany - 1976. In Italy, at referendums in 1974 and 1978 most voters opposed the repeal of laws that allowed divorce and legalized abortion. Events formed such a coherent picture of the triumph of liberal values that it was appropriate to speak of the "end of history" a decade before F. Fukuyama wrote about it (in a broader context). Suddenly, this picture began to fall apart. There are three levels of fertility:
The highest, close to the level of simple reproduction - in the USA;
Relatively low - Western European;
Ultra-low - South European (most pronounced in Italy).
Almost simultaneously with the divergence of fertility trends, differences began to appear in the trends of institutional control over the sphere of sexuality and childbearing. As the attitude of European politicians and the public towards abortion, extramarital cohabitation and same-sex marriage became more and more liberal, conservative tendencies gained strength in the United States.
The "first sign" was the refusal in 1984 of the administration of R. Reagan - an implacable opponent of abortion - to finance foreign organizations facilitating their implementation. In 2003, George W. Bush signed a decree banning abortions in late pregnancy, and a year later, an act to protect the unborn victims of violence. In February 2004, he also proposed an amendment to the US Constitution to remove the possibility of legal registration of same-sex marriages. These initiatives were justified by moral considerations and the fundamental importance of Christian values for the American nation.
In general, the differences in the attitude of Americans and Europeans towards religion are increasing more and more. Thus, recent comparative studies have shown that religion plays a very important role in the lives of 59% of US residents. This is much more than in the UK (33%), Italy (27%), Germany (21%), Russia (14%), France (11%). In American society, the positions of opponents of abortion are strengthening. If in the mid-1990s, judging by the polls of the Gallup Institute, 33% of Americans surveyed defined their position as pro - life (in defense of life, against abortion), and pro - choice (for freedom of choice, against the ban on abortion) - 56 %, in 2000 these figures were 45% and 47%, respectively. Changes in reproductive legislation initiated by the republican administration are supported by the vast majority of conservative Christian voters
Over the past decades, conservative demographic behaviors have continued to be widespread among the US population. The total fertility rate for non-Hispanic white women is 1.9, significantly higher than in the vast majority of European countries. By 2002, 40.4% of American women in this category aged 40-44 who were (or were previously) married had already given birth to two children, another 20.1% - three, and 8.7% - four or more children . Economically inactive (that is, not working and not looking for work or not ready to start one) 45% of American women aged 15 to 44 with children. Thus, one can speak of a widespread "conservative-demographic" syndrome in the United States, which includes interconnected conservative models of not only political and electoral, but also demographic behavior.
It is necessary to note a number of other factors that positively affect the birth rate in the United States. It's fast growing wages American women, which allowed many of them to give birth to children "without looking back" at not very reliable partners; the rapid growth of the child care market; sufficiently generous subsidies for the costs of parents to pay for such services from federal funds. In addition, structural changes in the labor market have led to an increase in the number of part-time jobs (32% of working women aged 15 to 44 with children work in them). Finally, we should mention the rapid growth in the number of Hispanics (currently about 13% of all US residents), who are characterized by a slightly higher birth rate than the rest of the country's population (the values of the total fertility rate in 2000 were, respectively, 3.1 and 2.1).
Since the early 1980s fertility trends in Western European countries also began to diverge. If in the latter there was a stabilization of the total fertility rate at the level (average for the region) of 1.6-1.7 with a rapid increase in the share of extramarital births, then in Italy the total fertility rate fell to an all-time low (about 1.2) marks, while the share of illegitimate births grew much more slowly.
The roots of this phenomenon lie in the specific relations characteristic of Italy between such institutions as the state, church, family and marriage. The strength of family ties and family business have long compensated for the weakness and inefficiency of the state in Italy. Such an organization of society sharply increases the dependence of the individual on the family and imposes on the older members of the family special obligations to the younger ones, because it is very difficult to find a worthy place in life without kindred patronage.
In Italy, marriage still has unconditional moral precedence over an extramarital union. The attitude towards the institution of marriage remains quite serious - in the age group of 20-24 years, this institution seems outdated only 11.6% of women and 15.3% of men. In addition, the divorce procedure is still quite complicated. As a result, people do not marry because it is too responsible, and do not form an extramarital union because it is reprehensible. If in Northern and Western Europe extramarital births make a significant contribution to the total number of births, then in the south of Europe this does not happen.
The marriage birth rate is also low. Italians still would like their families to have two or three children5. However, the norms of Italian familism (familismo), that is, nepotism, have a lowering effect on fertility, because they require parents to take zealous care for the education and professional career of their children, and these are very expensive enterprises. In addition, the labor market in Italy offers fewer flexible employment opportunities for women than in other developed countries. As a result, young people postpone marriage until the last opportunity, which adversely affects the level of marital fertility. Late marriage is also promoted by the centuries-old traditions of cohabitation of parents and children in a number of regions of Italy, the high cost of rented housing, the high, albeit declining, youth unemployment rate. Much of the above is also characteristic of Spain, where the birth rate is also noticeably lower than in Western Europe.
Mortality in countries with transition economy: differences in the depth and timing of the exit from the crisis.USSR and countries of Central and of Eastern Europe(CEE) since the mid-1960s. experienced stagnation or a decline in life expectancy. The transformational recession worsened the situation everywhere. In this regard, the UN report calls the loss of human lives associated with a decrease in the life expectancy of young and middle-aged men in a number of CEE countries (especially in Russia) the most difficult "human cost" of the transition from one socio-economic system to another. However, the magnitude of this decline and the subsequent dynamics of indicators in the east and west of the region under consideration were different.
The Czech Republic and Slovakia (in 1991), Poland (in 1992), Hungary (in 1994) were the first to recover from the decline in life expectancy, followed by Romania, Bulgaria and Moldova (respectively, in 1997, 1998 and 1999). gg.). In Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, a steady increase in life expectancy has not begun to date.
The depth of the life expectancy crisis in various countries of the region and the timing of the way out of it were determined by the nature of the interaction of institutions of various types and levels:
law enforcement and health institutions;
property rights;
permanent ways of thinking and acting that have become habit and custom.
Faster and with less losses out of the crisis - both socio-economic and demographic - came countries in which:
the nature of socio-economic transformations corresponded to the mentality of the majority of the population;
law enforcement and public health institutions were easier to reform;
the alcoholic subculture had a smaller role in economic, political and everyday life;
the standard of living before the transformational recession was relatively high;
there were favorable political and economic conditions for foreign investment.
2. Ways to solve the demographic problem in Russia
The demographic crisis in Russia can lead to negative results, such as:
Reducing the volume of labor resources. As a result of the decline in the number of able-bodied population, unemployment in Russia is increasing.
problems in the field of education. The number of school leavers is steadily declining. As a result, admission to universities for applicants becomes more free, but the universities themselves feel the problem of reducing the quality of students.
Decreased defense capability of Russia. As a result of a decrease in the mobilization reserve (the total number of people who are able to fight), Russia's defense capability decreased.
· weakening of Russia in Siberia and the Far East. As a result of declining birth rates and internal migration, the population of the Asian part of Russia is steadily declining.
the accelerated nature of the demographic crisis. With the passage of time, extinction accelerates. For example, in a one-child family, the generation of children is 2 times less than the generation of parents, the generation of grandchildren is 4 times less, the generation of great-grandchildren is 8 times less. From this it follows that the decrease in the population from generation to generation is spreading exponentially. Therefore, in order to revive the population, children will have to give birth 2 times more than their parents, grandchildren - 4 times more, great-grandchildren - 8 times. From here it follows that as time passes, there are less and less chances for the revival of the population to the value observed before the demographic crisis.
changes at the family level. There are tendencies in the world towards an increase in the organization of life without families, towards a bachelor's way of life, which is not so burdensome. As a result, the number of children in families decreases, which leads to a gross modification of the entire structure of life, value systems, weakening of fatherhood and motherhood, the unity of parents and children, the disappearance of the roles of brother and sister, and the disorganization of kinship systems.
To solve these problems, you need the following:
b increase in the birth rate;
and a decrease in mortality.
In 2007, by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation, the “Concept of the Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025” was adopted, which highlights a set of measures focused on solving the demographic problem.
strengthening the institution of the family. It is calculated that the elimination of the demographic problem is possible only with the implementation of the transition to a strong policy of strengthening the institution of the family with children in all purposes and spheres of life.
b support large families. Families with three or more children must become a priority for the demographic policy of the Russian Federation. Starting from the birth of the third child, the family must be included in a special category of strategic persons. state importance and each family member is assigned an optimal housing and a personal allowance in the amount of the average wage.
l financial support for the family. Russia is implementing minor government payments at the birth of a child, as well as support in the maintenance of a child to low-income families. Since 2004 appointment and payment monthly allowance per child is committed according to regional laws. For this from federal budget special subsidies are allocated in favor of the regions. Also in 2006, the Law on maternity capital”, which allows the family to receive a significant amount at the birth or adoption of a second (and after a subsequent) child. In 2015, this amount is 453,026 rubles.
l public health measures. One of possible ways An artificial increase in the birth rate can be an improvement in the medical care of women suffering from infertility. However, due to the high cost of the IVF procedure, it is available only to a few. Without the deep attention of the state in financing these procedures, their use is not capable of solving the problems of demographic decline.
Altitudinal zonality of the North Caucasus
Preservation of the unique nature of the North Caucasus is one of the most pressing topics...
Geographical position as a factor in the socio-economic development of the city
3.1 Directions of socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan, as possible ways to solve problems The main directions of the socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan are to reduce the overall level of unemployment ...
Geography of location of chemical industries in Russia: state of the art development
A feature of the environmental impact of enterprises of the chemical complex is the variety of sources and types of emitted harmful substances ...
Demographic situation by example Stavropol Territory
The capabilities of the region in solving the problem of eliminating the negative consequences of the current demographic situation are rather limited. This is due to the fact that the regional budget due to objective reasons is subsidized. Besides...
Another member of the "Club of Rome" - T. Miller - in his book "Life in the Environment", agreeing with Meadows on the issue of the causes of "explosive growth", pays more attention to the problem of population forecasting. )