The growth rate of domestic GDP is two times lower than the world level
August did without traditional economic cataclysms. The ruble, contrary to expectations, even strengthened slightly. Oil, it seems, is not going to leave the level above $50 per barrel. What problems? Live and be happy! But autumn is coming. Season of television and theater premieres. Time to count chickens. Harvesting and filling bins. Will economics delight the eyes or bring disappointment?
Flashing trends
They say that one of the threats of immersion in the virtual world of quick and short messages, the preference for pictures over texts, especially books, is the effect of clip consciousness. Thoughts run exclusively over short distances. To penetrate and appreciate a picture, an image, especially, of course, a selfie in a changing interior - please, think about how and why tomorrow will be different from today - is already boring.
Someone might think that this is the usual grumbling of an elderly person on the topic: what can these people of today, “after all, there were people in our time,” “the heroes are not you.” Maybe. But I’m not talking about the generation in hoods, with their heads in headphones always bent towards an invitingly flickering gadget.
I'm talking about forecasters. They are not averse to replacing trends with clips. They have some models, or simply diagrams and patterns, according to which the previous forecast was made, they change the parameters and produce the result: at this oil price, this and that will happen, and at this price, the indicators will be like this . Because the previous forecast was dancing like crazy. All that remains is to report: there is a forecast! But in my opinion, he doesn’t exist. What kind of forecast is this if the author proceeds from the fact that he does not undertake to predict the price of oil, but the entire forecast is based on this price? This is not even a clip, just an unsubscribe.
The clips appear later. Naturally, something happens that is not in the forecast. Then amendments are made, which is the clip: a quick insert number on the topic of what the forecaster did not predict in time.
But not everything is so gloomy. Economic trends, even their changes, are guests of forecasts, but they do not become their masters. For a very simple reason, and due to the hardware division of labor, which is not at all dependent on forecasters: the forecast is separated from decision-making. That is, formally decisions should be made on the basis of forecasts, but no one requires forecasters to show how the dynamics of the economy will change if the government makes this or that decision. Such forecasts, of course, are made, but separately. General macroeconomic forecast, base budget process, freed from such fuss.
The last time Andrei Klepach loudly protested against such “liberation” was before leaving the Ministry of Economic Development for VEB, in the very text of the forecast calling on the commanding bureaucratic floor to ultimately make one decision or another, but his call is an exception. Each cricket knows its sixth: forecasters are engaged in clips, decision makers are waiting for Kremlin instructions. This is, so to speak, the separation of politics and economics.
When asked what awaits us, forecasters, of course, answer. But with a reservation: if nothing changes compared to the conditions laid down in their opus. At the same time, both they and we are well aware that the principle “all other things equal conditions“good at mathematics, but in economics conditions never remain equal, and forecasters with their clips, alas, traditionally find themselves not ahead of changing conditions, but following them; they take their cue from those generals who always prepare for the last war.
Who will lead investment growth?
Forecasts and reality are fundamentally different. Exceptions prove the rule. Rosstat summed up the results of the first half of 2017. GDP grew by 1.5%, and in the second quarter by 2.5%. The Ministry of Economic Development believed that in the first half of the year growth would be 1.7%, and in 2017 it would reach 2%. With the first half of the year almost on target, with the year as a whole, Maxim Oreshkin’s ministry is head and shoulders ahead of the entire expert community, which is confident that growth will be significantly lower. But then what about the first half of the year?
Here the weather was literally changed by the second quarter, with extremely cold May and June, which caused excessive loads in the energy sector and related industries. Is there any merit to the forecasters here? The question is rhetorical.
The main positive of the first half of the year was the growth of industrial investments, amounting to 4.8%. The indicator is encouraging. But unpredictable and unforeseen. So much so that I can’t help but cite the comment of Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank: “We attribute the rapid growth of investment to changes in the law “On the use of cash registers,” according to which small and medium-sized businesses had to install new cash registers". The expert honestly tried to find the answer: why would investments suddenly increase, but, apart from administrative and legal coercion on cash registers, she found nothing. According to accounting laws, these investments can be classified as investments in fixed capital, but cash registers do not expand production. Although I’m lying, they are bringing some small businesses out of the shadows and into the light. But the total physical volume of production is still unlikely to increase.
The topic of investment is central. And for now, thanks to Natalia Orlova, it’s too early to delude yourself. On foreign investment the new one cannot but have a negative impact legal status American anti-Russian sanctions. Interior investment climate subject to cooling due to high-profile litigation surrounding shares large companies. In the same vein is the case of Alexey Ulyukaev. All together is hardly encouraging for private investors. And government investments, primarily in infrastructure projects, which could act as the vanguard of the investment process, are not provided for in the three-year budget plan, and in the programs of the Kudrin Center for Strategic Research (CSR) they are far from a priority.
But there is an important twist, which, of course, was not foreseen in the forecasts. On August 20, Vladimir Putin ordered the allocation of 100 billion rubles from the National Welfare Fund (NWF) for the modernization of the Trans-Siberian Railway and the BAM.
This is precisely a very important infrastructure project, a bid to transform Russia into a great transport power. After all, just look at the globe to be convinced: this is the shortest route from producing Asia to consuming Europe, which in terms of efficiency leaves far behind any routes of the Great Silk Road.
The project cannot be turned into a transit “pipe”: for the regions of Siberia and the Far East it must become a growth zone; the problem of filling trains moving not only from east to west, but also in the opposite direction, will have to be solved. But this is a project with tangible foreign exchange profitability, which means it is also attractive to foreign investors. It is impossible to do without them, because already in 2018 the project will receive only 50 billion rubles from the National Welfare Fund. In order to exceed the results from investments in cash registers, cause a multiplier effect, and awaken private investment, the project must receive no less attention from the government and the president than investment preparations for the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Will it?
Sacrifices on the altar of the budget
While growth Russian economy programmed to fade out. If, according to the official government forecast, GDP should grow by 2% in 2017, then in 2018-2019 its growth is reduced to 1.5%.
Like this: the president is pushing for Russia to exceed the world average economic growth rate, and the government is responding with a forecast for growth to decline to half the world average. And no thunder or lightning. True, bureaucratically the government has something to justify itself: new program is being done for the new presidential term, and its countdown will begin in 2018.
The fact is that nothing has changed yet. In the center economic policy the budget with a reduction in its deficit and control over inflation, which is already close to the line of four percent growth, the Central Bank is still keeping mum about the new target. These are the parameters for which the government and the Central Bank take responsibility. By default, it is recognized that these are the conditions for economic growth. Growth itself must happen on its own. The government undertakes to support a limited range of industries, the rest is up to business.
Normal program. With only one “if”. If the Russian economy were normal, that is, completely market-based. But that's not true. The Russian economy is almost 70% controlled by the state and almost all of it, with rare exceptions, is controlled by officials, in uniform and without. This means that the new program must give an answer: under what conditions will the Russian economy grow: Nationalization or, more correctly, bureaucracy, or movement towards the market?
Things diverge from the formal market choice. And if nothing fundamentally changes in the bureaucratic economy, but the CSR market program is formally adopted, then neither rates higher than the world average nor the goals of the program will most likely be achieved.
What's the solution? We must use the potential of the state to accelerate growth, but move towards the market. This means promoting large infrastructure projects under the auspices of the state and, above all, the modernization of the Trans-Siberian Railway and the BAM as the flagship of investment growth and regional development, and at the same time provide guarantees for the protection of private property, and decisively remove the economy from the control of officials. The program must also be appropriate.
Drawing up programs is an exciting activity, but the real state program for economic development is included in the budget. What is it like in the current three-year budget plan? Traditional. Reducing the budget deficit comes first. Everything else - growth, human capital, well-being of the population - will supposedly follow. After. If possible. But you hold on.
There are two main innovations. First, the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund are merged into the budget. On the one hand, this is a recognition that oil prices will not rise and new “safety cushions” will not be created. On the other hand, the principle is being implemented: everything is for the budget. Conclusion: investment potential states are shrinking. The merger of funds means that the tasks set for the National Welfare Fund - and this is not only support Pension Fund, but also a number of large investment projects- are now put before the budget, and the budget sacrifices expenses to support investment development of the economy on the altar of deficit reduction.
The second innovation is the continuation of the reduction in military spending that began in 2017. This is a healthy sign. Firstly, the Russian economy, according to many experts, starting with Alexei Kudrin, is overburdened with military spending. Secondly, the conversion effect, as the government itself admits, remains below expectations. Thirdly, this is an important geopolitical signal. It demonstrates better than the efforts of diplomats that Russia is for a peaceful solution to the problems at hand. This means for the development of dialogue with all countries, including the West. This signal must be conveyed to the recipients.
The upcoming presidential election season, regardless of who is elected, is a time of change. And any changes must be prepared. In economics, perhaps first and foremost.
EXPERT OPINIONS
Should we expect any surprises in the economic sphere in the beginning of the autumn season, and if so, what sign for them? Russian population will these surprises turn out to be? “MK” addressed this question to famous economists.
Ruslan Grinberg, scientific director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences: “It is unlikely that anything serious will happen in our economy before the presidential elections. I would call this situation a “continuation of vegetation.” We are all waiting for some economic news, but there is none. It is clear that the “battle of strategies” will most likely continue in the fall - between the Kudrin Center and Titov’s Stolypin Club. But this has nothing to do with economic policy itself: it is conservative. Of the trends that are emerging by the fall, it can be noted that in Russia the middle class has shrunk by 4% - that is, that group of people who have something to lose. The rest are simply surviving. At the same time, the beginning of GDP growth does not in any way affect the increase in incomes of the population.
The oil price is still quite stable. Fundamental changes in this area can only occur with a sharp increase in the supply of shale oil, which can sharply collapse the price of “black gold.” On the other hand, if the geopolitical situation worsens, this always leads to higher prices for raw materials, including oil - which is even beneficial for us. But, in my opinion, all this is not a prospect for this fall, but a more distant one. If we give an economic forecast for the coming months, then the stagnation will continue.”
Nikita Maslennikov, head of the Economics and Finance department of the Institute modern development: “By the end of summer everything is macro economic indicators slowed down - one might say, returned to normal after the super-successful second quarter. Although in general there remains the prospect that we will end the year with GDP growth of 1.5-1.7%. Which, in principle, is not bad. But we must make a reservation: it is possible to achieve such indicators if the risks associated with external conditions do not materialize. And I don’t even mean oil prices: everything is more or less clear here, we are unlikely to see the cost of a barrel above $52-53, but this is normal for the Russian budget.
Investors are anxiously awaiting two developments. Firstly, the September meeting of the US Federal Reserve, where a decision may be made to reduce valuable papers on the balance sheet of the regulator. This will affect the markets as a rate increase - that is, it will lead to a strengthening of the dollar and an outflow of capital from emerging markets, including Russia. The consequence could be a slight weakening of the ruble - say, to 62 per dollar, and an increase in inflation.
Secondly, on September 29, the agreements on the approved “ceiling” of the US debt expire. In negotiations between the Trump administration and Congress on raising the “ceiling”, a “shutdown” may arise - a deadlock, and the likelihood of it is quite high. American financial system in this case, a serious shake-up awaits, and “ripples on the water” from it could spread throughout the world, as was the case in 2008. Including, hitting Russia, weakening the ruble.”
The Danish Saxo Bank, which has established itself as the author of shocking forecasts, once again distinguished itself with extreme predictions for the coming year. The time for the forecast was deliberately chosen at the most inopportune time - on the day of voting in the US presidential election, two hours before the voting results were tabulated. But the bank’s chief economist, Steen Jacobsen, who specially came to Moscow from Copenhagen to present the forecast, said that he foresees Trump’s victory. He understood this back in March, Jacobsen argued.
Even then, he knew who this Trump was, the economist said, if you take Karl Marx and cross him with the heads of central banks of leading countries, “then we will get Trump.” Jacobsen showed the corresponding picture in the presentation. The heads of central banks were depicted there in the form of a group photo as a souvenir, and a photo of Trump was depicted with long, disheveled bangs. From this observation Jacobsen makes his first shocking prediction.
The US is mired in recession
“A strong dollar, combined with the Fed’s intention to raise rates at its meeting this December, virtually guarantees the American economy into recession,” Jacobsen said.
However, this is not the worst thing that awaits America. Trump's victory in the US elections "could very quickly turn into a massive political upheaval and end the monopoly of Republicans and Democrats, leading to a transition to social protest against globalization, openness and trade."
According to Jacobsen, Trump won only because the social contract was violated in the United States: the authorities promised Americans a way out of the crisis and new prosperity. But in a few recent years the situation has not improved.
The opposite happened: “the poor got poorer, the rich got richer, inequality grew, and Americans voted for change, for Trump, although this seemed impossible 18 months ago.”
The negative consequences of Trump's victory will not be limited to the American economy. Recession in largest economy world will lead to a new shock - a global slowdown in economic growth.
The global economy will slow down
Even a global recession is possible, Jacobsen predicts. “Our SaxoStrats forecasts imply a recession in the US against the backdrop of a growing fiscal deficit, which will become evident towards the end of this year, this recession will leave policymakers with no choice, they will have to use fixed levels of long-term returns (as in Japan) and the proverbial helicopter money,” the expert predicts jar.
This is an allusion to a statement attributed to former US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who called for throwing money from a helicopter to end deflation and stimulate economic growth (an image taken from Nobel laureate Milton Friedman). For Russia, the forecast is also not the most rosy.
Zero growth in 2017
According to Jacobsen, he has been analyzing the situation in Russia for 10 years.
According to an economist at Saxo Bank, “nothing has changed here in the last 20 years, so it is very easy to make forecasts for the Russian economy.”
There were no economic reforms, and there are no. All reform plans are limited to talk.
It seems that this will happen this time too, regardless of what reform program Alexei Kudrin writes and who heads the government. “How can you build muscle if you don’t go to the gym and don’t drink protein shakes,” Jacobsen says ironically. However, not all of Jacobsen's forecasts regarding the future of Russia are so pessimistic. There are pleasant surprises.
Sanctions will be eased
“The sanctions will most likely be lifted, not all, but at least part of them, already in 2017, which will have a positive impact on the economy,” Jacobsen said. The lifting of sanctions will accelerate Russia's GDP growth by 1 percentage point per year, which will allow it to reach zero. In this he agrees with the same Kudrin.
The ruble will strengthen
Easing sanctions and impending lifting of access restrictions Russian companies and banks to international markets capital, in turn, will improve the prospects for the ruble. “Trump’s victory creates more constructive conditions for the ruble than would have been the case with Clinton’s victory, for whom Russia was an enemy,” Jacobsen says.
According to his forecast, the dollar exchange rate will increase by the end of the year, but in 2017 the dollar will weaken and will be in the range of 58-60 rubles.
The dollar will also show weakness against other currencies, Jacobsen believes. But provided that the cost of Texas WTI oil remains approximately at the current level. In 2017, oil will trade in the range of $62-65 per barrel, although a decline in its value in the end is possible current year up to $35-40.
Another incentive for the strengthening of the ruble is again associated with Trump’s victory. The Fed will no longer be able to raise key rate in December, because in the first months the results of the presidential campaign will have a negative impact on the US economy. “The head of the Fed was late to this party, the rate should have been raised in the summer, now it’s too late,” says Jacobsen.
But weakening American currency will revive first the oil and gold markets, and then the real economy.
Kick and happy ending
"Everything will be fine in the end global economy over the course of several years. Because Trump is not a solution to problems, but it is a powerful kick, it is a stimulator of change,” the expert makes an unexpected conclusion.
Not all of Saxo Bank's forecasts come true. Of these predictions, it is unlikely that more than one or two will come true, Jacobsen admits. But he believes that the world has reached the final stage of the paradigm that has dominated since the world financial crisis. “Having traveled around the world over the past 12 months, I have realized that global markets are, in a sense, at the end of the road,” Jacobsen insists. Now, he is sure, a new paradigm is being formed, and one should prepare for the fact that volatility and uncertainty will increase along with the increase in the marginal cost of money.
IMF models continue to overestimate the growth rate of the global economy, poorly taking into account the problems of the United States and the largest developing economies, including Russia
At the end of July, the IMF released the latest version of its growth forecast world GDP in 2017. Compared to the fund's April report: experts believe that world economy“coming out of a cyclical recession”: in 2017, growth rates will accelerate to 3.5% y/y (3.2% y/y in 2016). Such constancy is surprising, because it is precisely in recent months Economic risks have intensified in those regions that, according to the IMF, will accelerate in the USA, Russia, India and Brazil.
Unexpected positive
Presentation of a major IMF report in April: experts saw real “signals of recovery from the cyclical downturn” for the first time in three years. At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, growth rates in world trade, industrial production and business confidence indices rose almost simultaneously to their highest levels in six years. Positive dynamics were observed in developed countries. In the fourth quarter of 2016, growth rates recovered in the United States and accelerated in the eurozone and Japan. Despite Brexit, 2% growth in the UK was maintained. The Chinese authorities were in no hurry to structurally rebalance the economy and supported growth through investment in infrastructure. Rising oil and metal prices following measures taken to limit supply (capacity cuts in China's iron and steel industry in mid-2016 and the OPEC+ agreement in December) supported exchange rates and incomes in other developing countries.
Thus, the positive attitude of the IMF was well founded. The fund's experts also expected that growth in exports would lead to an increase in investment. But, remembering past mistakes, they predicted the continuation of moderate positive dynamics in medium term- moderate, because the economic growth still has a negative impact high level debt in developed countries and China. In April, IMF experts expected an acceleration GDP growth to 3.5% y/y in 2017 due to increased growth rates in the United States, Russia and Brazil emerging from recession, and a moderate slowdown in China.
In July, the IMF forecast did not change qualitatively. ABOUT positive mood The title of the small report already speaks: “A firming recovery”. The forecast adjustments were small and generally did not change the balance between developed and developing countries. The downgrade of the forecast in the USA (minus 0.2 percentage points in 2017 and minus 0.4 percentage points in 2018) and the UK was offset by an increase in the forecast for the eurozone, Japan and Canada. In developing countries, the deterioration in the forecast for Brazil for 2018 (-0.4 percentage points) was neutralized by the improvement in China (+0.2 percentage points).
Return to reality
The continued hope for global acceleration is surprising: in April-July, negative trends were established precisely in those economies that, from the point of view of the IMF, should ensure growth in the second half of 2017.
In the US, there are signs of stagnation in the real estate sector and cooling in car sales (minus 7% y/y in July and minus 3.1% y/y in January-July). Core inflation fell below 2% y/y, which signals a decline in consumer activity. The reforms promised by Donald Trump to stimulate industry and large-scale investments in infrastructure remain on paper. Even health care reform cannot be passed through Congress.
The fund believes that in the second half of 2017, acceleration in Russia, Brazil and India should improve global dynamics and smooth out the negative effect of the slowdown in China. However, in Russia, according to current trends, GDP growth in the third quarter will slow down to 0.5-0.7% y/y (according to our institute’s estimates) due to lower oil prices and expanded sanctions. In Brazil, news about corruption scandal with the participation of current President Michel Temer created an additional “shock” in May-July. The real exchange rate fell by 9% on May 17-18, stock market- by 16% in dollar terms. Brazil's positive GDP performance in the first quarter was due to a temporary good harvest, while unemployment rose to 13.6%. In India, industrial production has not returned to its pre-growth rate. monetary reform in November 2016. Authorities launched a major tax reform in July, and the economy may take time to adjust. There are signs that Indian businesses are facing big challenges in the transition to the new system: the composite PMI index collapsed in July from 52.7 to 46 points. Finally, in China, the authorities began a policy to limit financial risks, which should lead to a slowdown in growth from the current 6.9% y/y (in the first two quarters).
The geopolitical situation is clearly worsening the prospects for global economic growth. In 2017, the rhetoric regarding the conditions for the UK’s exit from the EU became tougher: the parties are getting closer to a “hard” break. Pessimistic forecasts for the growth of protectionism in the United States have not yet been realized, but Trump’s rhetoric is creating negative effects. Conflicts with Russia and Iran have intensified. The United States played a role in the development of the Qatar crisis.
New forecasts again show that IMF models continue to overestimate global economic growth, do little to account for cross-country effects, and are backward-looking rather than forward-looking. This will most likely lead to a downgrade in October forecasts.
The Russian economy is going through hard times. The crisis is dragging on, the West is in no hurry to lift sanctions. Oil prices are unstable. What to expect from the near future?
Experts differ in their forecasts. The general mood is rather optimistic, but there are also a number of alarm bells. Let's try to sort out the influencing factors and look into the coming year.
When making an economic forecast for what awaits Russia in 2017, analysts rely on the current situation. And this is a crisis that has been going on for three years now. The financial and economic system of the country is influenced by both internal and external processes.
A crisis is a time of difficulties, but also of new opportunities
We remain heavily exposed to fluctuations in oil prices. In mid-January of this year, there was a real collapse in oil prices; this fuel was trading below $30 per barrel. This was partly facilitated by the lifting of international sanctions on Iran and its return to the ranks of players in the energy market.
Then prices rose, around June 7-8, 2016, prices were already more than $52 per barrel. Then the backward movement began again, albeit slowly. The price of Brent on the 20th of July is fixed at 45-46 dollars per barrel.
What to expect next? Experts give mixed forecasts economic development, but they are all somehow tied to the same “black gold”. Plus - the impact of Western sanctions and Russian retaliatory measures in the form of a food embargo and a number of other restrictive actions.
Summarizing these data and a number of internal factors, specialists from the HSE Development Center suggest three probable formats for economic development in the near future. Optimistic assumes an oil price of 60-90 dollars per barrel. already in 2017-2018. Skeptics give a barrel a price of no more than $50. There is also a volatile scenario: if the price is quite high, but unstable.
Hence the experts’ forecast of what awaits Russia in 2017 in terms of household income. Even at $50 real salaries are declining, and in the coming months, at the end of this year, a drop of 10% will be recorded. Salaries are “melting” in absolute terms; in 2016 they will decrease by about 5%. With this economic algorithm, unemployment in 2017 will reach 8%.
The debt burden on the population is growing, as lending conditions are changing, and only for the worse. The number of bankruptcies, both individuals and companies, is increasing. The situation is aggravated by rising inflation. Salaries are no longer indexed, and in some cases they are directly cut. Pensions are indexed to a minimum in 2016, and their funded part is frozen.
Consumer demand falls like a domino effect. In 2015, it dropped by 15%, and then there is a slightly smaller decline. Similar and even a little more a difficult situation and services to the population.
True, a crisis is a time not only of losses, but also of opportunities. That is why a number of analysts are making cautious but positive forecasts for 2017.
In the middle of a recession
But so far, in 2016, the volume of investment in real sector and other economic clusters. And in the coming months, experts predict that this trend will continue: investments will be cut by 12 to 15% at various points.
That is, there is a recession, characterized not by a sharp decline in the market, investment and other economic parameters, but by a slow downward slide and temporary periods of “stagnation”. Even short-term upswings are likely, at least in certain industries, which is now observed, say, in agriculture and chemical industry. These sectors have been able to take advantage of " reverse side» sanctions pressure, the crisis in general. And they are only gaining momentum, and noticeably so.
But the situation is not encouraging everywhere. Experts fear that instability oil prices may lead to exhaustion reserve funds countries. Budgetary difficulties are painfully affecting small and medium-sized businesses; they are very vulnerable without state support. But it is precisely this “layer” that can become the driver of the next economic recovery. Competent government officials understand this. There is hope that understanding will result in real measures to help entrepreneurship. Then there will be a return, this form of doing business can become a real support for further economic breakthroughs.
Year 2017: on a swing of growth and decline
So what is the most likely economic forecast for what awaits Russia in 2017? The most common answer: first, progressive growth of the economy, and at the end of the year - new round crisis. Although the professional “forecasters” of the Higher School of Economics have a more positive vision of our near future. And the country’s President Vladimir Putin agrees with the optimists; he expects a stable rise in the country’s economy in the next few years.
But critics and pessimists are trying to add a fly in the ointment: they say that oil prices are falling for now. The country's reserves are not unlimited, so how to patch holes in the budget? It is clear that we need to diversify the economy, but this also requires start-up money. As a result, experts from the Ministry of Economic Development assume that the economy will fall by 6-7%.
But let's return to the lighter versions of the optimists. In 2017, “rosy” analysts expect economic growth of 2-6%, if oil does reach the cherished level of $80. If energy prices do not go up, the economy will remain approximately at its current level. Growth in this case is projected to be no more than half a percent.
Paradoxically, the Central Bank and specialists were among the biggest optimists think tank Fitch. They expect an economic growth of 6 percent in 2017. I want to believe!
Update 09/25/2017
2017 ends with fairly good macroeconomic indicators. In the meantime, we have compiled a forecast for the development of the Russian economy for 2018. The forecast is based on opinions officials Russian state and independent sources of information.
Should we be afraid of a new wave of crisis or, on the contrary, will the situation stabilize? Both Russian analysts and Western experts do not have a clear opinion about what awaits our country this year. Let's look at the main versions economic forecast for Russia, compiled for 2017?
What prevents Russia from emerging from the crisis?
Russia - richest country, however, the country's economy is going through hard times. The results of analytical work carried out by Rosstat indicate that at the end of 2015, a drop in economic growth rates of 3.7% was recorded.
This is due to political instability and the implementation in the past of many ill-conceived reforms implemented at the initial stage of development of the new post-Soviet state. There were problems before, but they were aggravated by European sanctions and the collapse of the national currency. Let's see what factors determined the development of the Russian economy according to the negative scenario?
Resource-based nature of the economy
The Russian economy remains dependent on prices for oil and gas resources. Despite the President’s repeated statements that the country’s economy needs to develop along the path from a raw materials focus to an innovation component, in practice this has not been possible. The only path to prosperity is structural modernization economic sphere, which requires both financial investments, and many years of systematic work. By 2017, the country will definitely not have these resources, which means it will not achieve the desired result.
World power status
Russia is playing its game on international politics from the position of a world leader. To maintain this status, the state spends on defense complex colossal amounts. In crisis conditions this volume financial resources becomes more and more noticeable for the budget.
Interesting fact: according to experts, the army annually “eats” 80 billion dollars from the Russian budget.
Lack of own production
Many factories and factories are closing – and this trend began long before today’s epic with the fall of the ruble. In the current conditions, the development of this area is also in question, since employers, on the contrary, are trying to reduce costs by establishing a 3-day working week for employees, thus implementing a more humane alternative to dismissal.
In addition, the energy complex, without which the functioning of factories and factories is simply impossible. The earlier privatization policy of the energy complex had an impact here, which led to the state losing control over energy resources, and the current owners are not using them in the national interests.
Declining purchasing power of the population
Inflation, rising prices, worsening credit conditions - all this reduces real income population and reduces the purchasing power of citizens. All this leads to a decrease in commodity production, a decrease in the number of paid services provided to the population, and also contributes to the aggravation of the general economic downturn.
What will happen to the consumer lending market?
In the face of declining purchasing power, the country’s already heavily indebted population is once again turning its attention to banking credit products. However, the rates are so high that, coupled with tightening requirements for borrowers and a drop in real income levels, the conditions for citizens are simply unrealistic. Demand consumer loans falls - and this process will continue.
This trend is confirmed by the latest research by VTsIOM: 87% of the country’s residents are sure that now is not the time to take out a loan, and here are the reasons:
- On this moment There has already been a significant tightening of consumer lending rules. Many borrowers risk going bankrupt.
- There is currently a discussion going on new policy Central Bank. In particular, amendments to the federal law"ABOUT consumer lending" There is a possibility that Sberbank’s share when calculating the value full cost loan will be reduced, which will lead to an increase in the cost of credit products.
Analysts give examples: a loan worth less than 100 thousand rubles will cost on average not 31.7%, but 38% per annum. If the loan is more than 300 thousand rubles, interest rate according to it will increase from 26.7% to 28.6%.
- The level of trust in banking system generally. Almost every week people read the news that the next large bank license revoked. All this increases the level of mistrust, forcing citizens to keep their financial savings in a bank, but in the one located at home.
Interesting fact: according to the results of a survey conducted by VTsIOM, 43% of Russians believe that it is better to withdraw money from a bank account than to put it there.
What fate awaits the Russian currency?
Institute of Economic Policy named after Yegor Gaidar, RANEPA and All-Russian Academy foreign trade The Ministry of Economic Development in its analytical report put forward the following version of the economic forecast for Russia for 2017: experts are confident that during 2016 the ruble will continue to fall, but in 2017 National currency will finally strengthen. The base forecast assumes a ruble exchange rate of 69.4 units per dollar, and the optimistic scenario – 64.6.
Note: according to experts, the ruble fell by 7.6% last year.
How the scenario will develop: expert opinions
Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin bases his version of the forecast for the Russian economy for 2017 on the assertion that by then EU sanctions will be significantly weakened. Mr. Kudrin also explained that within 2 years the country’s economy will regain its upward trend.
American billionaire, financier and investor George Soros also does not do excessively negative forecasts. The expert believes that Russia has enough reserves to withstand current circumstances.
Researchers from the HSE Development Center base their forecast on what oil prices will be. If the cost of a barrel is only $5, then the scenario will certainly be negative. “For our country’s economy to begin to develop according to a moderately optimistic scenario, the price per barrel should be at least $60,” experts say.
Largest American bank holding company Morgan Stanley published in February 2016 a new forecast for Russia's economic development for 2017, in which the previous conclusions of the holding's experts were corrected to be more negative. So, at first financiers said that our country would expect economic growth equal to 1.7% of GDP, but now they said that it would be much less - nominal GDP will increase by only 0.9%.
Analysts believe that since the Russian economy in 2017 will continue to depend on the dynamics of oil prices, and oil prices will begin to recover by this time, it will still be able to adapt and normalize.
In addition, according to Morgan Stanely's forecast, Russia expects inflation to decline to 6.7%. The Bank of Russia takes a more optimistic position, stating that by the beginning of 2017, inflation in the country will not exceed 7%, and by the end it will drop to 4%.
The head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Alexey Ulyukaev, also believes that 2017 will be better than 2016, in which productive economic development is not expected: “one can already expect a slight increase in the volume of investments in fixed assets,” the minister is confident.
Thus, the forecast for Russia's economic development for the entire 2017 is generally neutral. There is definitely no need to be afraid of significant deterioration and the large-scale collapse of the economy and default predicted by some analysts. The main peak of the crisis has already passed, and in the future the economy will gradually recover and return to normal.
This is a slow process and, of course, one cannot say that in just a year we will experience universal prosperity and a return to the purchasing power of the population to pre-crisis levels. However, a global deterioration is also not expected. According to experts, all major economic indicators, including the inflation rate, GDP growth rates and even oil prices will gradually improve, which will mean the successful adaptation of the Russian economy to new realities.