Next year could be the last for the Reserve Fund. This, according to TASS, was announced on Tuesday in the Federation Council by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

"We will cut our reserves by about 2.6 trillion rubles - by more than half. All this means that 2016 is the year when we will be able to Last year so waste our reserves, our reserves. And then we will not have such resources," he said.

According to the minister, if today's oil prices and the dollar exchange rate remain unchanged, the budget in 2016 will receive less than 900 billion rubles.

"If today's oil prices and the exchange rate remain, and today oil prices are about $44 per barrel for Urals and the ruble exchange rate is about 62 rubles per dollar, then we may lose 900 billion rubles. We do have such risks," he said. minister.

Anton Siluanov recalled that the federal budget is the main instrument of economic policy. "We are talking about the need to adapt it to new macroeconomic realities," he said.

"I would like to note that this year the volume of budget revenues is expected to be 1.3 trillion rubles lower than last year, while the total volume of expenditures will grow by 11%. As a result, the deficit this year will be 3% of GDP" - said the head of the Ministry of Finance.

Recall that in 2003 the Stabilization Fund was established in Russia - one of the main Russian state funds. On February 1, 2008, it was divided into reserve fund and Foundation national welfare. The reserve fund is used to offset social spending and repayment external debt, National Wealth Fund is used to finance the payment of pensions.

The budget rule formulated in 2013 (and buried in 2015) implied that budget expenditures should be formed based on average price for oil over the past years, and not based on the forecast. Budget revenues in excess of the calculated price in the days of the "expensive barrel" were sent to the Reserve Fund. So it was until recently, when sanctions, the collapse of the ruble and the fall in oil prices threatened the Russian budget.

A month ago, it became known that the Ministry of Finance does not plan to replenish the Reserve Fund and the National Wealth Fund in the coming years. In July, Siluanov said that the Ministry of Finance provides for the use of the Reserve Fund in 2015 in the amount of 2.5-3 trillion rubles, for 2016-2017 it proposes to use a little more than 1 trillion rubles in order to save it for 2018. At that time, the ministry estimated that in 2018 the fund would remain at about 500 billion rubles.

Earlier, in the report "New Realities of Russian Public Finance", prepared by the Sberbank CMI, it was noted that at the end of 2015, a little more than 10% of the current amount of funds may remain in the Reserve Fund.

In the spring, the finance minister warned that the Reserve Fund could run out by 2017. Then the NWF will have to be spent to cover the budget deficit. True, after the president proposed in 2012 to invest the NWF in megaprojects, many applicants appeared for them. In mid-2014, the total amount of applications received exceeded the entire size of the fund.

The Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the "Fund"), founded on January 1, 2004, is part of federal budget. The fund is designed to ensure the balance of the federal budget when the oil price falls below the baseline (set since January 1, 2006 at the level of 27 US dollars per barrel of Urals).

The Foundation promotes stability economic development country, is one of the main tools to bind excess liquidity, reduces inflationary pressure, reduces dependence national economy from adverse fluctuations in commodity export earnings.

Formation and use of the Fund's resources

The Fund accumulates proceeds from the export customs duty on oil and the tax on the extraction of minerals (oil), when the price of Urals oil exceeds the base price.

The Fund's resources can be used to cover the federal budget deficit when the oil price falls below base price. If the accumulated amount of the Fund's resources exceeds 500 billion rubles, the excess amount may be used for other purposes. The volume of use of the Fund's resources is determined federal law on the federal budget for the relevant fiscal year.

In 2005, the Fund's funds exceeded the level of 500 billion rubles, and part of them was used to pay off the external debt of the Russian Federation and cover the deficit pension fund Russian Federation in the following volumes:

93.5 billion rubles (equivalent to 3.3 billion US dollars) was used to pay off debt to the International Monetary Fund;
430.1 billion rubles (equivalent to 15 billion US dollars) - to pay off the debt to the member countries of the Paris Club;
123.8 billion rubles (equivalent to 4.3 billion US dollars) - to repay the debt to Vnesheconombank on loans granted to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation in 1998-1999 to repay and service the state external debt of the Russian Federation;
30 billion rubles (equivalent to 1.04 billion US dollars) was allocated to cover the deficit of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation.

Fund management

Managment structure

The Fund's resources are managed by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. The management procedure is determined by the Government of the Russian Federation. Separate powers to manage the funds of the Fund may be exercised central bank Russian Federation under an agreement with the Government of the Russian Federation.

According to the purpose of the Fund - to serve as a strategic financial reserve of the state, its funds can be placed in debentures foreign states, the list of which is approved by the Government of the Russian Federation.

The Government of the Russian Federation empowered the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation to distribute the Fund's assets in terms of currencies, weights and terms and approved the procedure for managing the Fund's funds.

In accordance with the approved procedure, the management of the Fund's resources can be carried out in the following ways (both individually and simultaneously):

by acquiring debt obligations of foreign states at the expense of the Fund;
by acquiring foreign currency at the expense of the Fund and placing it on the accounts for recording the funds of the Stabilization Fund in foreign currency at the Bank of Russia. For use in cash the Bank of Russia pays interest on these accounts. The procedure for calculating and crediting the said interest is approved by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

At present, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation manages the funds of the Fund according to the second method (by placing funds on currency accounts at the Bank of Russia). At the same time, in accordance with the procedure for calculating and crediting interest accrued to the accounts of the Stabilization Fund in foreign currency, approved by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Bank of Russia pays interest on the balances on these accounts, equivalent to the return on portfolios formed from debt obligations of foreign states, the requirements for which approved by the Government of the Russian Federation.

Rules for investing the Fund's resources

The Government of the Russian Federation has determined that the debt obligations of foreign states, in which the Fund's funds may be placed, include:

debt in the form valuable papers governments of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, denominated in US dollars, euros and English pounds sterling;
debt obligations, the issuing countries of which have a long-term credit rating of at least AAA according to the classification of Fitch Rating or Standard & Poor's rating agencies (Fitch-Ratings or Standard & Poor's) or not lower than AAA according to classification rating agency"Moody's Investors Service" (Moody's Investors Service);
debt obligations, the maturity of which is fixed, the terms of issue and circulation do not provide for the issuer's right to redeem (redemption) ahead of schedule and the right of the owner of debt obligations to present them for redemption (redemption) by the issuer ahead of schedule;
debt, rate coupon income(in the case of coupon bonds) and whose denominations are fixed;
debt obligations the outstanding volume of which is at least USD 1 billion for USD-denominated debt, at least EUR 1 billion for EUR-denominated debt, and at least EUR 0.5 billion .pound sterling - for debt instruments denominated in pounds sterling;
debt obligations, issues of which are not issues intended for private (non-public) placement.
The maturity of debt obligations of foreign countries on the day of their acquisition (the day of formation of the portfolio) is in the range limited by the following periods (in years):

Currently, the Fund's assets are placed according to the following currency structure:

U.S. dollar

GBP

Our present and future -
STOLE! THE BIGGEST SCAM IN THE HISTORY OF RUSSIA:
Today, the State Duma adopted, without discussion in the first reading, a decision by which the citizens of Russia were stolen from the citizens of Russia the stabilization fund of Russia stored in US banks (collected with funds from the sale of Russia's natural resources; now it will not be managed by the state, but by the private JSC "Horns and Hooves") - 5.6 trillion rubles, which is approximately 1/3 of the revenue side of the budget of the Russian Federation.

This has never happened in our history.
And our opposition is like typing water in your mouth.

The bill on the website of the State Duma http://asozd2.duma.gov.ru/main.nsf/(SpravkaNew)?OpenA

From RP: We all thought about how the so-called. "Stabilization Fund" is one of the last stash of the Kremlin thieves' common fund. "Society with limited liability"for" managing "trillions - this is five with three pluses. As for "drawing the government" into a mega-adventure of outright theft of reserves - it's just 5, about how to involve a port prostitute in an operation to seduce a client. Like "but the president doesn't even know" Boyars are bad, yeah.

The Ministry of Finance is ready to drag the government into the adventure of the century. The plan is this: to transfer all the savings of the country under the control of some mysterious OJSC (open joint stock company). The state will voluntarily give him the funds set aside by the country for a rainy day for eight years of oil prosperity. Namely, the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund. And that's not it. At the same time, they will transfer control over all state loans and instruct them to steer the temporarily free money of the federal budget. Totally under the control of the mysterious financial organization will be at least 8.5 trillion. rubles!

income from debt

The "eight trillion" idea sounds almost unbelievable. As if the Ministry of Defense decided to entrust control armed forces bloc NATO. Or the Ministry of Industry and Trade - called for the transfer of all Russian enterprises to China. But it's true. The wake-up call for government savings seemed to come suddenly. In mid-December, such news slipped through the tapes of news agencies - unnoticed by anyone. President Dm. Medvedev instructed the government before March 1, 2012 to resolve "the issue of creating a unified structure for managing the public debt, the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund." The name of the new organization also flashed - OAO Russian Financial Agency (RFA).

There is something to think about here. There is still enough money in the funds. According to the Ministry of Finance, as of December 1, 2011, 801 billion rubles were in the Reserve Fund. The National Welfare Fund has accumulated much more - 2.764 trillion. rubles. Total: 3.565 trillion! State loans - another 5 trillion. rubles. “We are constantly working with debts. We buy some bonds, we issue some, almost on a daily basis,” says an employee of the Ministry of Finance. Undertaking the same task, the intermediary will not work for free, the typical rate is 1%. So, a public debt of this size is a very tasty jackpot.

As planned, unlike the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, RFA will have the right to manage public finance in risk mode. In much the same way that banks manage depositors' money, financial funds- means of investors. That is, they spin it as best they can, investing in stocks, bonds, currency - whatever they have to. In the hope of earning a profit for both myself and the client. Sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much.

If we were talking about the risk of one individual investor. But at stake is the entire piggy bank of the Russian Federation. For the time being, she was followed like the apple of an eye. Since 2004, the resources of the Stabilization Fund, and then created from it in 2008, two new funds (reserve and welfare) were managed by the Ministry of Finance. Money is kept in the accounts of the Central Bank. The system is conceived in such a way that control over the state moneybox is as reliable as possible. Funds - can not be spent on anything. The reserve fund was created exclusively in case of difficult budgetary times, it was he who saved the economy in the fall and winter of 2008. Indeed, at what cost! At its peak, in March 2009, it had 4.869 trillion. rubles. Now - six times less. The Welfare Fund is a pension savings box for future generations. During the crisis, she was almost not battered.

Control worked eight years in a row. During this time, there was an uncountable number of people who wanted to steal the savings. Of course - under the guise of good undertakings. From time to time, even certain members of the government, including deputy prime ministers, started talking about these topics. If they had taken over, the Russian money-box would have suffered the fate of similar funds in Venezuela, Nigeria and Oman. The governments of these countries, having barely begun to set aside part of the super-revenues in raw materials in similar funds, could not resist and instantly lowered their savings.

Black August Kudrin

Now in the Russian Federation - a mess. With such difficulty, the trillions of rubles saved are going to be transferred to the management of a structure about which almost nothing is known. Who is behind this? The most striking thing is the Ministry of Finance. Experts explain: the idea to switch the management of stabilization funds has been floating around in the ministry's offices since 2008. It was then that A. Kudrin first started a speech on the topic: "it is necessary to increase the efficiency of managing state assets." Simply put: they say that the huge funds of the stabilization funds are lying flat due to numerous legislative restrictions, but they could bring much more income.

The minister suggested a wonderful way out - in the spirit of the times. It was he who gave the government the idea to create the Russian Financial Agency (RFA) state corporation. Mr. Kudrin was stingy with comments when asked how to guarantee control over huge finances and who exactly would be assigned to steer the money. But once he mentioned: the staff of the corporation "will be small - a few dozen people." At the same time dropped - they will pass into it former employees Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy and Central Bank.

Fortunately, the Ministry of Finance acted extremely slowly. While the department was preparing a law on the creation of the RFA, while it was coordinating it with other interested state organizations, August 7, 2009 struck. On this day, President Dm. Medvedev attacked state corporations and instructed the prosecutor's office to conduct a comprehensive audit of the activities of these economically murky organizations. His patience snapped: the state allocated 640 billion rubles to seven state corporations. from the budget, also gave them property worth 2 trillion. rubles. Recoil - none. The scandal raged with might and main. But this did not frighten the then head of the Ministry of Finance. Just a few days later, Mr. Kudrin poked his head at the president with his project to create a new, eighth state corporation. It must be assumed that a warm welcome awaited him in the Kremlin.

To the misfortune of the Minister of Finance, two major scandals around the money of state funds broke out at the same time. In April 2010, a startling government decree was leaked to the press. In fact, it classified the exact information about the size of the Reserve Fund and the Welfare Fund. Of course, they also hid any data on exactly which assets (stocks, bonds, currencies, etc.) the savings are placed in. Many suspected something was wrong. Fortunately, the fears were not justified, the Ministry of Finance continued to publish reports, although the information is limited.

The second scandal came out even worse. Analysts studied the text of the government decree "On the procedure for investing the funds." In the first place there are the securities of the governments of 14 states. The list looked like this: "debt obligations of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg", etc. In Russian, there is no system in listing countries. But in English - they are given exactly alphabetically. This gave some people a reason to say: they say, the text of the decree is a direct translation of instructions from abroad.

Ministry of Finance in the red

After such a series of blows, Mr. Kudrin quickly disavowed the idea of creating a state corporation, and talk of the RFA died out. Only, as it turned out, not forever. Now, with the advent of a new finance minister, the idea of creating this structure has risen from the legislative ashes. But - already in the form of JSC.

High-ranking officials of the Ministry of Finance again sang the old song about "improving the efficiency of public finance management." "It is difficult to manage the funds of funds through the Central Bank. For example, the law does not allow the Central Bank to work with shares and corporate bonds. The Ministry of Finance does not have enough experience and resources to work in the market," an employee of the ministry explains the departmental position.

It begs a conclusion. Has the state piggy bank been managed inefficiently since the establishment of the Stabilization Fund? That is - the Ministry of Finance was losing a lot of money? Nothing like this. For example, the average return on the world-famous Norwegian oil stabilization fund ($220 billion) is 4.5% per annum. This fund is considered to be the benchmark for the ideal management of the state budget. The Alaska State Oil Stabilization Fund (there is one) earns 5.8% per year. Meanwhile, Russian funds, depending on the year, brought an income of 6-8% per annum. In 2007, the income reached a record 10.9% per annum (in US dollars).

The second point: in no country in the world has the government yet thought of transferring management of both savings and public debt - not to the Ministry of Finance, but to a third-party structure. Because in all countries - this is the work of the Ministry of Finance. True, there were timid experiments in some Arab oil powers. For most, this brought nothing but losses.

Third: by law, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have the right to invest national savings only in the most reliable of the most reliable assets. The new intermediary structure will be able to risk much more. According to the plan of the Ministry of Finance, it will be able to invest up to half of the money of state funds in shares, a third - in foreign bonds. Although in a crisis it is better to stay away from them. In addition, the services of the financial layer are not free, they will cost the budget about 1%. Not profit - all funds transferred to management.

Bottom line: the risks of losing part of the savings are growing, the benefits are ephemeral. But, apparently, three key economic organizations - the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy - have perfectly agreed and are preparing either an alternate airfield or a banal sinecure for themselves. If the business works out, a couple of dozens of the next "effective managers" will no longer manage billions, but trillions. No one knows how much financial fuel remaining in the stabilization funds will be enough for them. But that it will burn fast enough - there is no doubt

I present to you the transcript of my speech today during the discussion in the State Duma of the draft law on the creation of a Specialized Financial Organization, and, in fact, on the transfer of funds from the Reserve Fund and the NWF to the Joint Stock Company.

Dear Colleagues!

The State Duma has not yet considered such bills. And it seems to me that many hours of Pussy Riot discussions, the introduction of an anti-tobacco law into today's agenda and other such issues -
this is just a smoke screen for the consideration of the draft law on the creation of the Federal Agency for Finance.

In fact, it is about transferring the funds of the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund, the assets of the state debt to the management of a commercial structure - the Open Joint Stock Company "Rosfinagentsvo". And now it is clear why Mr. Kudrin and the financial bloc of the Government all this time with such perseverance convinced us that it is necessary to undernourish, undertreat, underfund education, underbuild roads and underrepair housing, and invest all the money in the Reserve Fund. Because they accumulated all these funds not for the people, but for themselves, covering up with various words: inflation, stabilization, sterilization, hedging, and the like. They said it was the Dutch disease if we ran out of our savings. In fact, the disease is not Dutch, but quite Russian. And it is called: snatch the treasury or take the cash register.

The essence of this bill, in fact: constitutional powers - for outsourcing. Constitutional powers of the Government and the Central Bank. And we have already gone through this on the experience of the Ministry of Defense, only there it was 4 billion, and not more than 4 trillion, and ventilation schemes could at least be found and felt. And then virtual money and virtual shares go along the chain from a joint-stock company to other joint-stock companies, then they invest in financial agencies, and they pass them on even further and, as they say, look for the wind in the field...

But back to the Constitution. Both the Reserve Fund and the National Wealth Fund are budget funds. If these are budgetary funds that are subject to spending, then, according to our Constitution, it ensures spending budget funds and execution of the budget Government of the Russian Federation. No outsourcing for the expenditure of budgetary funds is provided for by law. If these funds are not used for budget expenditures, but are used to balance the federal budget, to ensure the balance of money circulation, then these are funds from the reserves of the Central Bank, and according to Article 75 of the Constitution, outsourcing is here
also not provided for by law.

Let's return to the economic component. We were convinced of the need to form the Reserve Fund and the National Wealth Fund, they said that if all these funds are spent domestically, they will inevitably cause inflation, that they should be spent only in other countries ... But this bill is proposed through a chain joint-stock companies invest them within the country. But if we are going to invest them within the country, then it is more logical to return them to the budget and direct them to the most priority, direct, transparent and socially important budget spending, to control which the Parliament works in our country, laws have been created, the Federal Contract System, we adopt the budget, we hold elections and elect deputies, who should control the spending of budget funds. And the money should go to the budget, so that we, the elected deputies, know that they are directed to roads and infrastructure, and not to casinos, asset buying and land speculation.

If this is money "for a rainy day", as we have been told all this time, money to cover the budget deficit, then this is emission. And reserves are needed to maintain money circulation as part of gold and foreign exchange reserves, and
then, again, if we are talking about the balance of money circulation, then these are the powers and functions of the Central Bank, and all of them are spelled out in the Constitution. And no outsourcing in a specialized financial institution, which will suddenly begin to deal with money circulation, emission and everything else, is not provided.

In my opinion, it is quite clear that this law is the moment of truth. The masks have been torn off. Now it is clear that all ten years, all the arguments and all the convictions about the Reserve Fund were a multi-way move, so as not to spend this money on budget expenditures, on functions that are defined by the Constitution, but to give it to no one knows who and no one knows what. But if we have to adopt such a bill, even with all the clarifications and improvements in the second reading, then we must also change our Constitution, in Article 7 of which it is said that the Russian Federation - welfare state implementing policies for a decent life for citizens. And to write honestly that the Russian state is the state that implements a policy in the interests of a certain group of people, to strengthen their well-being and improve their lives. Otherwise, everything that is proposed now in this bill contradicts both the Constitution and all those numerous statements that somehow, even illusory, justified the existence of the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund all this time. Fair Russia is against this bill, and no clarifications, changes and improvements in the second reading will solve anything.

Konstantin Gurdin

On January 1, 2008, the Stabilization Fund was abolished and divided into 2: the Reserve Fund and the Fund for Future Generations (then the National Welfare Fund). The Reserve Fund played a special role in ensuring fiscal security in 2009, during the global crisis. The entire amount of the accumulated Reserve Fund was used to maintain the budgetary and financial sphere within allowable norms economic security indicators such as the budget deficit, state debt, functioning banking sector And so on. IN this moment The Reserve Fund really acted as an instrument fiscal policy in the field of ensuring national interests. EU representatives called the Government's policy prudent, and Finance Minister Kudrin a responsible and correct politician. However, the above reflects the duality of this situation. The funds were not invested in real sector economy, but supported the financial pyramid of some securities.

Table 1

The total volume of the reserve fund of the Russian Federation in 2011-2015

Since 2011, we have seen a reduction in the budget deficit and replenishment of the Reserve Fund. Similar opportunities are provided by oil exporting countries that form funds, are presented in Table 2.

table 2

The volume of sovereign funds in the Russian Federation and some oil and gas producing countries, % of GDP as of 01.01.2013

Source: IMF estimates.

Positive assessments by foreign experts of the Russian budgetary and financial policy of smoothing budgetary risks and overcoming crises, as well as the experience of other countries, are forcing the Government of the Russian Federation to further "reserve and sterilize" budgetary resources.

Since 2013, the federal budget has been compiled on the basis of budget rules, at which the maximum volume of federal budget expenditures is limited by the size of planned revenues at the "base" oil price, increased at the rate of one percent of gross domestic product. Thereby with...

Oil and gas revenues of the federal budget are formed from:

- tax on the extraction of minerals in the form of hydrocarbons (oil, combustible natural gas, gas condensate);
- export customs duties on crude oil;
- export customs duties on natural gas;
- export customs duties on goods produced from oil.

A certain part of these oil and gas revenues in the form of an oil and gas transfer is annually directed to finance federal budget expenditures. The amount of the oil and gas transfer is approved by the federal law on the federal budget for the next financial year and planning period in absolute terms, calculated as 3.7% of the volume of gross domestic product forecast for the corresponding year, specified in the federal law on the federal budget for the next financial year and planning period. After the formation of the oil and gas transfer in in full oil and gas revenues go to the Reserve Fund.

The normative value of the Reserve Fund is approved by the federal law on the federal budget for the next financial year and planning period in absolute terms, determined on the basis of 10% of the volume of gross domestic product forecast for the corresponding year. After filling the Reserve Fund to the specified amount, oil and gas revenues are sent to the National Welfare Fund.

From January 1, 2010 to January 1, 2015, the normative value of the Reserve Fund is not determined, the oil and gas revenues of the federal budget are not used to finance the oil and gas transfer and to form the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund, but financial support federal budget spending.

Another source of formation of the National Welfare Fund is the income from the management of its funds. From January 1, 2010 to February 1, 2015, income from the management of the funds of the National Welfare Fund is not credited to the Fund, but is directed to financial support for federal budget expenditures.

Oil and gas revenues from the federal budget, the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund are accounted for in separate accounts for the accounting of federal budget funds opened by the Federal Treasury in central bank Russian Federation. From January 1, 2010 to January 1, 2015, separate accounting of oil and gas revenues of the federal budget is not carried out.

Calculations and transfers of funds in connection with the formation and use of oil and gas revenues of the federal budget, oil and gas transfers, the resources of the Reserve Fund and the National Wealth Fund are carried out by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation in the manner established by the Government of the Russian Federation. It should be noted that from January 1, 2010 to January 1, 2015, the procedure for carrying out settlements and transfers of funds in connection with the formation and use of oil and gas revenues of the federal budget, oil and gas transfers, funds from the Reserve Fund and the National Wealth Fund was suspended.

Accounting for transactions with oil and gas revenues of the federal budget, funds of the Reserve Fund and the National Wealth Fund is carried out in the manner established for accounting for transactions with federal budget funds.

Table 3 - Analysis of the dynamics of the total volume of funds of the National Wealth Fund for 2008-2015 in billions of US dollars, in billions of rubles.

As can be seen from the analysis of this table, the total amount of funds of the National Welfare Fund in billions of US dollars, with a general downward trend, undergoes constant fluctuations. Moreover, the maximum volume is observed in 2009 equal to 92.89 billion US dollars, and the minimum - in 2015, equal to 72.22 billion US dollars. With regard to the total volume of national wealth, expressed in the national currency, there is a constant increase in the funds of the National Welfare Fund for the analyzed period by more than 2 times. And in the end, the maximum volume is observed in 2015, equal to 4784 billion rubles, and the minimum level was set in 2008.

However, I would like to point out that this analysis The volume of the National Welfare Fund does not reflect the full and real picture of the situation for a number of reasons. The main of which is a sharp decline exchange rate ruble, the ever-increasing rate of inflation and the ensuing consequences.

The general downward trend in the value of the country's reserves has finally taken hold since September 2014. With minor adjustments, it continues to this day. In total, during this period, the country lost about 25% of the National Welfare Fund.

A number of economists and scientists express doubts about the availability of NWF funds for urgent needs Russian government. According to them, almost all of the fund's resources were invested in various long-term projects, from which it is not possible to extract them in case of urgent need.

Therefore, speaking about the volume of the Fund's resources, it is necessary to take into account fundamentally important point. Today's figure of 72.22 billion dollars is not quite the amount that the Ministry of Finance can dispose of at any moment. It is not only the amount of money that is important, but also where it is actually placed.

In conditions financial crisis we should expect an acceleration in the rate of expenditure of reserves.

In addition, the need for money depends not only on the real state of the economy, but also on a factor that is not always amenable to precise calculation: on the level of trust in government and financial institutions. Thus, in December 2014, the Federal Law "On Amendments to the Budget Code of the Russian Federation" was adopted, according to which up to 10% of the National Wealth Fund can be placed in Russian banks to finance infrastructure projects. And in December 2014, VTB Bank already received the first tranche in the amount of 100 billion rubles from the NWF.

As reserves run out, pressure on financial markets will only increase, which means that more will be required financial resources to maintain relative stability.

In our opinion, for further growth of the country's assets as a whole in the near future, it is necessary to maintain two important parameters unchanged: a stable oil price at the level of fifty dollars per barrel and the absence of attempts to keep the national currency at a certain level, i.e. the continuing free fall of the ruble.

The results of the additional capitalization of the banking sector in 2015 turned out to be worse than expected, she said at a joint meeting of the State Duma committees on the budget, on the financial market and on economic policy Chairman of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation Tatyana Golikova.

"Despite the fact that the amount of state support received at the end of 2015 amounted to 802.7 billion rubles, the increase in the total capital of capitalized banks amounted to 190.4 billion rubles, or 23.7% of the volume of additional capitalization received," RIA Novosti quotes Golikova.

"Already in the first quarter of 2016, there was a decrease in the capital of 19 banks out of those 24 that were recapitalized as of January 1, 2016. And a decrease in the capital adequacy ratio in the first quarter was observed in 98 credit organizations," the head of the Accounts Chamber noted.

Golikova recalled that the money was issued to banks for lending to priority sectors of the economy, but any criteria intended use have not been installed.

Unfortunately, we also state that there is no substantive control over the reporting of banks for this particular part, which we controlled, for the intended purpose of the state support funds received. And if in 2015 we are only stating this trend, then in 2016 we would like the Central Bank to pay attention to this Special attention and took some measures in this regard," Golikova added.

The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation in December 2014 transferred bonds to the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) federal loan(OFZ) for 1 trillion rubles for additional capitalization of banks. Later, it was decided to reduce the property contribution to the DIA by 162 billion rubles, which were used to support enterprises in other industries. As of December 30, 2015, as part of measures to increase OFZ capitalization by total amount 802.7 billion rubles were transferred to 25 banks.

Russia with a holey pocket

Why can we be left without reserves already in 2017?

http://svpressa.ru/economy/article/149885/

Russia's reserves are melting before our eyes. On Wednesday, June 1, the Ministry of Finance reported that in May the Reserve Fund decreased in dollars by 14.1% - to $ 38.6 billion, and the National Welfare Fund (NWF) by 1.2% - to $ 72.99 billion .

However, in ruble terms, the volume of the Reserve Fund declined not so much - "only" by 11.8%, to 2.55 trillion rubles, and the volume of the NWF even increased by 1.5% - to 4.82 trillion rubles. This is connected, of course, with the depreciation of the Russian national currency.

As follows from the report, in May the Ministry of Finance paid for the budget deficit for the second time from the Reserve Fund, spending, as in April, 390 billion rubles. Thus, the Ministry of Finance has already spent 780 billion reserves to cover the deficit.

Specifically, in May, $ 2.67 billion, 2.34 billion euros and 410 million British pounds were sold from the "stash" of the country. As a result, as the Central Bank warned, there is a liquidity surplus in the Russian banking sector.

Roughly speaking, the Ministry of Finance sells to the Central Bank the funds of the Reserve Fund denominated in foreign currency, and the Bank of Russia is forced to accompany this purchase with technical emission. As a result, in the last two months the volume money supply only grows.

This leads to the fact that banks accumulate too much free money that is not being used. The economy does not show demand for loans. So, according to the results of the first quarter of 2016, banking sector showed negative values for all key indicators: decreased by 2.3% banking assets, almost 3% - corporate loans, 1% - consumer, 3% - household deposits.

On June 1, the Bank of Russia announced that it managed to partially absorb liquidity inflows in April-May by selling federal loan bonds (OFZ) from its own portfolio with a nominal value of 119.9 billion rubles. But this does not completely solve the problem, and the population is being held accountable for "technical emissions".

On April 25, Sberbank sharply lowered the rates on citizens' deposits. Most of all went to deposits in euros. When investing for up to a year, they collapsed almost to zero. Now, we must think that the market leader, Sberbank, will be followed by other banks.

But the main thing is that the pessimistic forecast of the Minister of Finance is confirmed Anton Siluanov. Back in January, he warned that in 2016 the Reserve Fund could be almost completely used up. And at the end of May, he “did not rule out” that the Ministry of Finance would exceed the bar set by the budget - 2.1 trillion. rubles from the Reserve Fund in 2016 - and will spend "slightly more" to finance the budget deficit.

The upcoming elections are also spurring on the accelerated spending of the Reserve Fund. One of the "pre-election gifts" of the authorities by the fall of 2016 may be the second indexation of pensions. And the social obligations of 2017 may turn out to be higher than it seems now.

How quickly can we be left without a “stash”, what threatens the country with the depletion of the Reserve Fund?

For four months of this year, the budget deficit reached 4.7% of GDP, notes Head of the direction "Finance and Economics" of the Institute modern development Nikita Maslennikov.

According to the Ministry of Finance, in order to fulfill the political goal and reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP by the end of the year, about 2.1 trillion rubles will be required. rubles. At the same time, even if all additional sources - the privatization of state property, the average annual price of Urals reaching $ 40 per barrel (now - about $ 36), the reduction of government spending due to the withdrawal of unused limits from October 1 - will work in full, the deficit, according to calculations Federal Treasury, at best will be 3.4% of GDP.

With such a state of the revenue side of the budget, spending from the Reserve Fund is inevitable. And taking into account what additional sources of income will actually bring, it is natural to assume that we will spend the Reserve Fund very intensively this year.

Polyus, at the end of the first half of the year, apparently, the government will decide on the secondary indexation of pensions - on the eve of the elections to the State Duma, this issue has become a significant social urgency. Plus, the Cabinet needs to solve a number of electoral tasks.

True, the funds for the indexation of pensions, by and large, are included in the so-called presidential reserve, which was formed due to the freezing of the funded part of the pension for this year, and is about 340 billion rubles. Yes, 150 billion of this reserve has already been “booked” to support Vnesheconombank (VEB) so that it does not fall into a situation of default on its external obligations. But the remaining money for indexing, in principle, should be enough.

The problem, however, is that the same funds may be needed for completely different, no less important, purposes. This is evidenced by the same story with VEB: initially, completely different sources of its support were assumed. For example, today 160 billion rubles are not enough to finance the government's anti-crisis plan. And there is nowhere to take them corny.

In this scenario, it is the Reserve Fund - the only real insurance to finance the deficit.

"SP": - How much will the Reserve Fund?

If we spend the fund at the same pace as now, it could end by early 2018. Moreover, there is nothing to replenish the fund yet. For now, all oil revenues above $40 per barrel will go straight to financing the budget deficit and solving current problems. In particular, to finance all social obligations of the state in full.

"SP": - What does this mean for the Russian economy?

First of all - additional emission. The assets of the Reserve Fund placed in federal government bonds of foreign states with a high credit rating are sold by the Central Bank, and in exchange for these assets it is obliged to issue the corresponding amount of rubles. According to calculations, the volume of the minimum budget emission in 2016 alone will be approximately 1.8-2 trillion. rubles.

This is a rather serious increase in the money supply in circulation. For comparison: now about 36 trillion rubles are circulating in the Russian economy. rubles. As a result of the emission increase, the increment will be several percent.

This, in turn, creates a serious inflationary risk, which the Bank of Russia needs to take into account in monetary policy. In particular, the Central Bank will not reduce key rate, otherwise inflation will accelerate much higher than the estimated 6.5% by the end of the year.

In addition to the fact that such a situation is a headache for the monetary authorities, it also makes it necessary to postpone necessary measures economic support.

SP: How can this situation be resolved?

It is necessary to clarify what the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will do next, based on the discussion about new sources economic growth and structural reforms, which began on May 25 at a meeting of the Presidium of the Economic Council under the President of the Russian Federation. I think that the interim results of this discussion will be indicated already this summer, and this will begin to motivate business to do more. business activity. In the meantime, in the first place in the list of restrictions on business activity, according to Rosstat, is precisely the uncertainty of economic policy.

Reserves were created in order to spend them during periods of unfavorable economic conditions, recalls President of the National Strategy Institute Mikhail Remizov.

Another thing is that the reserves are inexpedient to spend on Current responsibility, it is more reasonable to spend them on financing projects that have a multiplier effect and are able to stretch the economy. In other words, reserves should not be consumed, but invested.

Yes, the government's current liabilities can be financed by the budget deficit. But you need to understand that this deficit can and should be covered not only from the Reserve Fund, but also from internal borrowing instruments. We, I believe, have a good potential for the domestic borrowing market, and there is even a shortage of reliable investment instruments. If the state - the Ministry of Finance - creates such instruments on the domestic market, they may well be in demand.

Therefore, I am somewhat surprised at the narrow range of mechanisms by which the Ministry of Finance intends to cover the budget deficit. Apparently, the instruments of internal borrowing are associated with us, according to old memory, with financial pyramid GKO (government short-term bonds) 1998. But this experience in the current conditions is absolutely not necessary to repeat. Instruments can be reasonable for the state in terms of the price of funds raised, and reliable for bondholders.

"SP": - Imagine that the Reserve Fund is exhausted. What will this mean politically?

First of all - the lack of freedom of maneuver for the authorities. I note that financial policy related to the creation of reserves, which the Russian authorities followed for a long time, was, in my opinion, connected with the phobias of the 1990s. In the 1990s, state power often found itself without free funds, and, as a result, without freedom of maneuver in the political plane. Therefore, the government, of course, values the freedom of maneuver.

On the other hand, the authorities have the opportunity to replenish foreign exchange funds not only due to the favorable oil and gas situation. For example, the Central Bank may well buy up foreign currency in order to restrain periods of ruble appreciation, which will help reduce the volatility of the national currency.

In my opinion, reasonable purpose in the current situation, the ruble is not cheap, not expensive, but the ruble is stable. In addition to reducing the amplitude of the speculative “pendulum” of exchange rate fluctuations, stable and cheap ruble will allow additional liquidity to be injected into the real sector of the economy: no matter what the Ministry of Finance says, this sector needs liquidity.

Such a decision will also benefit the economy, and will allow the state to maintain political freedom of maneuver ...

About the Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation

PURPOSE OF THE FUND

http://akudrin.ru/achievements/stabfond

The Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the "Fund"), founded on January 1, 2004, is part of the federal budget. The fund is designed to ensure the balance of the federal budget when the oil price falls below the baseline (set since January 1, 2006 at the level of 27 US dollars per barrel of Urals).

The Fund contributes to the stability of the country's economic development, is one of the main instruments for binding excess liquidity, reduces inflationary pressure, reduces the dependence of the national economy on adverse fluctuations in revenues from exports of raw materials.

FORMATION AND USE OF THE FUND

The Fund accumulates proceeds from the export customs duty on oil and the tax on the extraction of minerals (oil), when the price of Urals oil exceeds the base price.

The Fund's resources can be used to cover the federal budget deficit when the oil price drops below the base price. If the accumulated amount of the Fund's resources exceeds 500 billion rubles, the excess amount may be used for other purposes. The volume of use of the Fund's resources is determined by the federal law on the federal budget for the corresponding financial year.

In 2005, the Fund's resources exceeded the level of 500 billion rubles, and part of them was used to pay off the external debt of the Russian Federation and cover the deficit of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation in the following amounts:

93.5 billion rubles (equivalent to 3.3 billion US dollars) was used to pay off debt to the International Monetary Fund;
430.1 billion rubles (equivalent to 15 billion US dollars) - to pay off the debt to the member countries of the Paris Club;
123.8 billion rubles (equivalent to 4.3 billion US dollars) - to repay the debt to Vnesheconombank on loans granted to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation in 1998-1999 to repay and service the state external debt of the Russian Federation;
30 billion rubles (equivalent to 1.04 billion US dollars) was allocated to cover the deficit of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation.

FUND MANAGEMENT

MANAGMENT STRUCTURE

The Fund's resources are managed by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. The management procedure is determined by the Government of the Russian Federation. Separate powers to manage the Fund's resources may be exercised by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation under an agreement with the Government of the Russian Federation.

According to the purpose of the Fund - to serve as a strategic financial reserve of the state, its funds can be placed in debt obligations of foreign states, the list of which is approved by the Government of the Russian Federation.

In accordance with the approved procedure, the management of the Fund's resources can be carried out in the following ways (both individually and simultaneously):

by acquiring debt obligations of foreign states at the expense of the Fund;
by acquiring foreign currency at the expense of the Fund and placing it on accounts for recording the funds of the Stabilization Fund in foreign currency with the Bank of Russia. The Bank of Russia pays interest for the use of funds on these accounts. The procedure for calculating and crediting the said interest is approved by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

At present, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation manages the Fund's funds according to the second method (by placing funds on foreign currency accounts with the Bank of Russia). At the same time, in accordance with the procedure for calculating and crediting interest accrued to the accounts of the Stabilization Fund in foreign currency, approved by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Bank of Russia pays interest on the balances on these accounts, equivalent to the return on portfolios formed from debt obligations of foreign states, the requirements for which approved by the Government of the Russian Federation.

RULES FOR INVESTING MONEY OF THE FUND

The Government of the Russian Federation has determined that the debt obligations of foreign states, in which the Fund's funds may be placed, include:

debt obligations in the form of securities of the governments of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, denominated in US dollars, euros and British pounds sterling;
debt obligations, the issuing countries of which have a long-term credit rating of at least AAA according to the classification of Fitch Rating or Standard & Poor's rating agencies (Fitch-Ratings or Standard & Poor's) or not lower than AAA according to classification of the rating agency "Moody's Investors Service" (Moody's Investors Service);
debt obligations, the maturity of which is fixed, the terms of issue and circulation do not provide for the issuer's right to redeem (redemption) ahead of schedule and the right of the owner of debt obligations to present them for redemption (redemption) by the issuer ahead of schedule;
debt obligations, the coupon rate (in the case of coupon debt obligations) and the face values of which are fixed;
debt obligations the outstanding volume of which is at least USD 1 billion for USD-denominated debt, at least EUR 1 billion for EUR-denominated debt, and at least EUR 0.5 billion .pound sterling - for debt instruments denominated in pounds sterling;
debt obligations, issues of which are not issues intended for private (non-public) placement.
The maturity of debt obligations of foreign countries on the day of their acquisition (the day of formation of the portfolio) is in the range limited by the following periods (in years):

Currently, the Fund's assets are placed according to the following currency structure:

U.S. dollar

GBP

The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation approves the currency structure and the specified maturity standard, which are valid for both of the methods of management of the Fund mentioned above.

REPORTING ON OPERATIONS WITH FUND MONEY

The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation publishes on a monthly basis information on the Fund's balances at the beginning of the reporting month, the amount of funds received and the use of the Fund's funds in the reporting month.

The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation submits to the Government of the Russian Federation quarterly and annual reports on receipt of funds to the Fund, their placement and use.

The Government of the Russian Federation sends quarterly (cumulative) and annual reports to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation and the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on the receipt of funds to the Fund, their placement and use as part of reporting on the execution of the federal budget.