The growth of investment in fixed assets in January-June amounted to 4.8% compared to the same period last year, according to data published by Rosstat on Thursday; in nominal terms their size is 5.7 trillion rubles. At the same time, investments have not yet reached the levels of 2015 - they decreased by 1.2% over two years.
Rosstat publishes long series of investment data only in annual terms, which makes it difficult to correctly compare data over six months. Investments in fixed capital fell for three years in a row, decreasing by 12.2% during this period: in 2014 the decrease was 1.5%, in 2015 - 10.1%, and in 2016 - 0.9%. In monthly terms, Rosstat does not publish investment dynamics; the latest available quarterly data is for January-March, when investments grew by 2.3% compared to the corresponding period last year (but seasonally decreased by 61.8% compared to the fourth quarter). Judging by the data for the half-year, growth in the second quarter could be more than 6% year-on-year, estimates Promsvyazbank chief analyst Ekaterina Krylova.
Investment data is correct, you can trust it, this is evidence of a gradual economic recovery, says Vladimir Bessonov, head of the laboratory for studying inflation and economic growth at the Higher School of Economics (HSE). The production of investment goods is growing, for example building materials, for which there was a long decline, which has now turned into a revival, the expert notes. He draws an analogy with the behavior of households, for which an analogue of investment can be the purchase of cars. "Production passenger cars is also gradually growing,” recalls Bessonov. Another indirect sign is the growth of imports, a significant part of which are investment goods, adds Vladimir Bessonov. Imports, according to Rosstat, have been growing since August last year; in the first half of the year they increased by 27.4% compared to the same period last year.
This “expected” revival in investment, Krylova confirms, occurred “due to a gradual easing of the conditions for bank lending to enterprises, improvement financial situation companies in general and the strengthening of the ruble.” However, analysts were expecting less positive data - approximately plus 3.5–4%, she notes.
Investment growth in 2017, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, should be 2% and remain close to this level in the next three years (according to the base scenario of the social and economic forecast). economic development). The reforms, as the department expects, should accelerate investment growth to 3.9%, 6.8% and 9.8% in 2018–2020, respectively. The growth of private market investments is the basic idea of the government’s plan to accelerate economic growth, said Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin. In his opinion, economic predictability and “the formation of mutual trust between business and the state” should contribute to this.
Investment growth should indeed become the main driver of GDP (previously consumption took on this role), noted the chairman of the board of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR is preparing economic program for the President) Alexey Kudrin. But this factor will accelerate the economy only in the coming years, he stipulated, then labor productivity should come first. According to CSR expectations, the share of investment in GDP should increase from 18.3% in 2016 to 22.4% in 2025.
GDP in January-June grew by 1.5% compared to the first half of last year, Rosstat also estimated on Thursday. In July, industry grew by 1.1% (its growth slowed down after the jump in May-June), and retail trade turnover by 1%. In the same time real income population continued to decline (by 0.9%) after the decline stopped in June.
Subscribe to our channel on Telegram!
To subscribe to the 1neof channel in Telegram, just follow the link https://telegram.me/firstneof from any device on which the messenger is installed and join using the Join button at the bottom of the screen.
Official statistics data on changes in one of the key statistical indicators of “investment in fixed capital” in Russia
For any enterprise, investments in fixed capital serve as the main driving force that directly affects the increase in production volumes and economic viability. And on a national scale, the state investment sphere determines the pace of economic and social development countries, the technical level of production and its efficiency, competitiveness in world markets, and as a result - the qualitative characteristics of the standard of living of the population. And investments made in the production of consumer goods, construction of housing and social amenities, directly affect the living conditions of the population.
In the Soviet state, when a planned economy reigned, five-year plans and long-term economic development programs regulated the investment process. Modern conditions dictate a broader interpretation of this concept:
« cash, securities, other property, including property rights, other rights having monetary value, invested in objects of entrepreneurial and (or) other activities in order to make a profit and (or) achieve another useful effect" (No. 39-FZ of February 25, 1999)
It should be noted that in Russia capital investment remains an important area investment activities. Investments in fixed capital in Russia are expenses aimed at:
- New construction;
- expansion, reconstruction and technical re-equipment of existing enterprises;
- acquisition of machinery, equipment, tools, inventory;
- design and survey work and other costs.
A system of indicators characterizing investments in fixed capital is formed based on the results of current continuous and selective federal statistical observations, as well as a sample survey of investment activity of organizations engaged in mining activities, manufacturing, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water. The last one was carried out by Rosstat on October 1, 2016. It aimed to obtain information about the investment activity of enterprises and organizations in 2016 and the investment intentions of entrepreneurs for 2017. The respondents were 9.9 thousand organizations that are not classified as small businesses, and 3.9 thousand small enterprises. And its results are extended to the entire set of statistical observation units.
Investments over time
Investment dynamics serve as a litmus test for investors and various participants in a particular investment project, clearly showing how promising it is becoming further development. It is influenced by various factors. The country's sustainable economic growth undoubtedly has a positive effect on the dynamics and guarantees an increase in the volume of investments. When the economy grows steadily, without strong fluctuations, the dynamics of investment gradually increases, reflecting the overall economic situation. Economic crisis invariably entails a decrease in the volume of invested funds and an inevitable decline in dynamics.
Since 1987, when perestroika began in the USSR and some regulations, opportunities have opened up for the influx of foreign direct investment. Until 2008, there was an increase in investment in actual prices. An analysis of investments in fixed assets at comparable prices (taking into account inflation) shows that real growth began only in 1999, when the figure varied from 105.3 to 123.8%. A new drop in volumes due to the crisis of 2008-2009. (more about the crisis and its consequences) occurred in 2009, both in actual and in comparable prices. A decrease in investment volumes in comparable prices has been observed over the past three years.
“Indices of the physical volume of investments in fixed capital are calculated in comparable prices. Average annual prices are taken as comparable previous year. Revaluation into the average annual prices of the previous year is carried out using average annual deflator indices.”
Source: Rosstat
Today, fixed capital investment accounts for one-fifth of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). At the end of 2016, 14,639.8 billion rubles were invested in the country’s economy, which is 20.4% of GDP.
Source: Rosstat
More than 80% of the total investment is developed by organizations of the Russian form of ownership, mainly private. Of the 12,192 billion rubles spent by them in 2016, 8,244.0 billion, or 67.6%, were spent by private enterprises. The share of foreign and joint ventures accounts for 9.2% at the end of 2016.
| Total, billion rubles | Including property |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russian | foreign | joint Russian and foreign |
||
Source: Rosstat
Type of investment structure
In the structure of investments in fixed capital, the largest share falls on buildings and structures, last years it increased from 43.3% in 2011 to 45.2% in 2016. Almost a third of investments are aimed at machinery, equipment and vehicles(30.6%), in 2011 they were at the level of 37.9%.
Source: Rosstat
Based on sample survey materials 84% of organizations purchased new domestic machinery and equipment, 32% purchased imported ones. On the secondary market, 18% of organizations purchased domestically produced cars and equipment, 5% purchased imported ones.
These were mainly vehicles, complexes and technological lines, individual installations of technological equipment and electronic computer equipment.
Of the total number of organizations surveyed, 16% made their acquisitions on terms financial leasing.
Direction of investment in fixed assets
For the development of such activities as operations with real estate, rental and provision of services, mining, transport and communications, manufacturing and production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, almost 80% of investments are directed. And this ratio has been maintained throughout recent years.
Source: Rosstat
Compared to 2011, investments in fixed capital at comparable prices in such activities as
- production of medical devices, measuring, control, management and testing instruments; optical instruments, photo and film equipment; hours;
- production of office equipment and computer equipment;
- chemical production.
“Distribution of investments in fixed assets by type economic activity carried out in accordance with the OKVED classifier based on the purpose of fixed assets, i.e. the field of activity in which they will function.”
| 2016 as a percentage of 2011 |
|
|---|---|
| Production of medical devices, measuring, control, management and testing instruments; optical instruments, photo and film equipment; hours | |
| Manufacture of office equipment and computer equipment | |
| Chemical production | |
| Real estate transactions | |
| Crude oil and natural gas production; provision of services in these areas | |
| Scientific research and development | |
| Retail except trade motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of household products and personal items | |
| Wholesale, including trade through agents, except trade in motor vehicles and motorcycles | |
| Fishing, fish farming |
Source: Rosstat
Sources of investment financing
“The calculation of investments in fixed capital by sources of financing is carried out by Rosstat without small businesses and the volume of investments not observed by direct statistical methods.”
If back in 2011 the use of investment investments occurred to a greater extent due to attracted sources, then at the end of 2016 the situation changed and the organizations’ own funds came to the fore. Today their share is 50.9%.
Source: Rosstat
In monetary terms it is.
According to Rosstat, in January-September 2017, the volume of investments in fixed capital amounted to 9681.7 billion rubles, which is 4.2% higher than the volume of the corresponding period last year (in real terms). For comparison, the same figure a year earlier was -2.3%.
The best results in January-September 2017 in terms of investment growth were achieved in the Central and Southern Federal Districts (Fig. 1), where investments in fixed assets in real terms increased by more than 20% compared to January-September 2016 An improvement in the situation was also observed in the Far Eastern and North Caucasus Federal Districts, where investment growth rates outpaced average level throughout the country, although a year earlier the corresponding indicators were negative.
Rice. 1. Change in investment in fixed capital by federal districts Russian Federation in January-September 2017 (in% of the corresponding period of the previous year)
Source: Rosstat
At the same time, in a number federal districts The investment situation remains difficult. Thus, in the Northwestern and Ural Federal Districts, the growth rate of investment in fixed capital slowed sharply and turned out to be below the all-Russian level, amounting to 3.9% and 2.7%, respectively. At the same time, the investment decline continued in the Siberian and Volga Federal Districts. The volume of investments in fixed capital in the Siberian Federal District in January-September 2017 decreased by 3.1% in annual terms (against the background of a reduction of 4.9% in the same period a year earlier), and in the Volga Federal District - by 6.3% ( despite the fact that in January-September 2016, investments decreased by 9.8%).
Regions with high rates of growth and decline in investment
In January-September 2017, in 48 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the growth rate of investment in fixed capital compared to same period last year were positive, and in 37 constituent entities of the Russian Federation – negative. These rates themselves also differed significantly from each other. A record high growth in investment in fixed capital was recorded in the Republic of Crimea (4.2 times compared to January-September 2016) and in the city of Sevastopol (2.3 times), which is associated with the construction of infrastructure facilities at the expense of the federal budget. According to Rosstat, in January-September 2017, 75.5% of investments in fixed assets in the Republic of Crimea and 77.3% in Sevastopol were financed from the federal budget.
In another 7 regions, investment growth rates exceeded 30%. For example, in the Amur region, investments in fixed capital in January-September 2017 increased by 48.0% compared to January-September 2016, in Vologda region- by 44.2%, in the Kaliningrad region - by 41.4%, etc. For these regions, the main source of investment is funds from private investors, usually large companies. For example, in the Vologda region in 2017, a number of industrial projects are being implemented, including Severstal projects for the reconstruction of coke oven batteries and the construction of new polymer coating and galvanizing shops, the Phosagro project for the construction of a new fertilizer production, the Gazprom project for the construction of sections of the main the Ukhta-Torzhok 2 gas pipeline and gasification of a number of areas, as well as projects for the creation of new production facilities in single-industry towns in the region. Several large “gas” projects are being implemented in the Amur region (construction of a gas processing plant and a section of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline). Among the regions with high investment growth rates, there are also the largest regions - Moscow (growth in January-September 2017 by 20.3% in annual terms) and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (growth by 35.2%).
Along with this, in a number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation in January-September 2017 there was an investment decline, the rate of which also reached high values. For example, in 19 regions the rate of decline in investment in fixed capital was 10% or more. Thus, in the Republic of Ingushetia the drop in investment reached 42.5%, in the Komi Republic – 35.7%, Kurgan region– 30.6%, etc. In some cases, such a rate of decline is associated with the completion of large investment projects, which creates the effect of a “high base” of previous periods. For example, a year earlier (in January-September 2016), investments in fixed assets in the Republic of Ingushetia increased in annual terms by 42.2%, in the Komi Republic - by 18.7%, in the Kurgan region - by 16.0%. However, among the regions experiencing an investment decline, there are also quite large constituent entities of the Russian Federation, where the investment situation depends not on a few, but on many investment projects. Among such regions are the Krasnoyarsk Territory (a 13.0% drop in investment in January-September 2017 in annual terms), the Republic of Bashkortostan (a 25.5% drop), and the Sverdlovsk Region (a 7.6% drop).
Investment situation in the largest constituent entities of the Russian Federation
In recent years, about half of the investments in fixed capital carried out in Russia have occurred in a relatively small number of regions of the Russian Federation. For example, in January-September 2017, 50.0% of investments were made in 11 constituent entities of the Russian Federation (Table 1). This is Moscow and the Moscow region, Tyumen region and Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansiysk autonomous okrugs, St. Petersburg, Republic of Tatarstan, Krasnodar and Krasnoyarsk territories, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and Sverdlovsk region. The “three leaders” have the largest “gap” from other constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of investment volumes – Moscow (11.5% of investments in fixed capital in Russia), Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (7.8%) and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Yugra (6.9%). For comparison, St. Petersburg, which ranks 4th among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of investment in fixed assets, accounts for only 4.0% of the total Russian investment volume. Often, these regions have a decisive influence on the investment situation in federal districts: for example, the situation in the Central Federal District is largely determined by the trends emerging in Moscow and the Moscow region, in the Ural Federal District - in the Tyumen region (together with the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug), in the Southern Federal District – in the Krasnodar region, etc.
Table 1. Leading regions in terms of investment in fixed assets in January-September 2017 (in billion rubles and as a percentage of the total Russian investment volume)
Source: Rosstat
In January-September 2017, the composition of the leading regions in terms of investment in fixed capital remained almost unchanged compared to the same period in 2016. The change affected only one region: the 11 leaders included the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), replacing the Republic of Bashkortostan. The positions of some regions have also changed. For example, the positions of St. Petersburg and the Krasnodar Territory increased, while the Moscow Region and the Republic of Tatarstan, on the contrary, decreased. Among the regions leading in terms of investment volumes in the country, multidirectional trends in changes in investment volumes were also observed. Thus, in Moscow, the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yakutia, high rates of investment growth were observed, and in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Sverdlovsk region and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, on the contrary, are low.
Sources of investment in leading regions
In most regions of the Russian Federation, leading in terms of investment in fixed capital, the main source of investment in fixed capital is the own funds of organizations (Fig. 2). Examples of such regions are the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug and the Tyumen Region (without the Autonomous Okrug), where this share reaches 89.3% and 84.3%, respectively. A significant part of investments (60-65%) is financed by own funds organizations in the Sverdlovsk region, in the Republic of Tatarstan, as well as in St. Petersburg.
In a number of leading regions in terms of investment volumes, on the contrary, the bulk of investments in January-September 2017 were financed by borrowed funds - primarily funds from higher-level and other organizations (in Rosstat statistics they are classified as “other”), as well as loans banks. For example, in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), where a number of projects are being implemented largest companies(such as the development of the Chayandinskoye oil and gas condensate field, the construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline (Gazprom structures), the construction of the Inaglinsky and Denisovsky mining and processing plants (Kolmar Group of Companies), the construction of a diamond mining enterprise (Verkhne-Munskoye ore field) (AK Alrosa) and etc.), raised funds (except for budget funds and bank loans) accounted for 58.1% of investments in fixed capital of the region. At the same time, in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, where a number of mining industry investment projects are also being implemented, 51.9% of investments were made through bank loans (this applies, in particular, to NOVATEK projects financed through loans from Russian and foreign banks).
Some regions are characterized by a relatively high proportion budget funds in the structure of sources of investment in fixed capital. This applies to the greatest extent to Moscow, where in January-September 2017, budget funds became the source of 31.2% of investments in fixed capital (of which 27.1% accounted for the city budget, and 4.0% for federal budget). This structure of investment sources is associated with the implementation of a number of infrastructure projects in Moscow (primarily transport), as well as with the implementation of joint projects between the region and private investors. Moreover, relatively high share budget funds as a source of investment in fixed assets is typical for St. Petersburg (19.2% of investments in January-September 2017), Krasnodar Territory (18.5%), Moscow region (18.3%). In St. Petersburg, as in Moscow, the bulk of the invested budget funds came from the city budget, and in the Krasnodar Territory and the Moscow Region - from the federal budget.
Rice. 2. Structure of investments in fixed capital of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation - leaders in terms of investment volume in January-September 2017 (in% of investment volume)