https://www.site/2018-09-12/chto_budet_dalshe_s_dollarom_i_rublem_prognozy_analitikov

Under pressure from sanctions

What will happen next to the dollar and ruble. Analysts' forecasts

Jaromir Romanov

Today the US Senate will hold hearings on new sanctions against the Russian Federation. What will happen to the ruble depends on the results of this meeting - whether it will continue to fall or begin to rise in price against the dollar and euro. Analysts' forecasts are in anticipation of this event.

“The probability of the dollar exchange rate rising above 70 rubles is high”

Sanctions pressure (discussion in the Senate of introducing restrictions on transactions with new public debt, pressure on the Russian Federation in the Skripal case, a serious aggravation of the geopolitical situation in Syria) continues to have a serious impact on the ruble exchange rate, analysts at Bank St. Petersburg state. Experts believe that the mark of 70 rubles per dollar is now an important milestone that the market will try to maintain until a new portion of negative news appears. However, the bank assesses the probability of the dollar exchange rate rising above this level as high.

“Increasing anti-Russian rhetoric will increase pressure on ruble assets”

Despite the fact that the exchange rates of the dollar and euro have decreased slightly on the Moscow Exchange (currently the American currency costs 69 rubles 46 kopecks, the European currency costs 80 rubles 52 kopecks), the Russian currency will remain under pressure amid increasing sanctions risks. This is what Denis Davydov, chief analyst at Nordea Bank, thinks. Despite the slight respite that emerging market currencies received the day before, the appetite for risky assets remains very low. The dollar has a strong position, while the issue of sanctions continues to be a big irritant for the Russian ruble.

“The strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions rhetoric will increase pressure on ruble assets. In addition, today the US President will sign an order imposing sanctions against individuals and companies involved in interfering in the American electoral process. Taking into account the preliminary findings of US intelligence agencies, the decree will affect a number of Russian legal and individuals. The USD/RUB pair will continue to trade at 69-70.5,” notes Nordea Bank.

“The ruble is undervalued, but the population may cause a rush of demand for the currency”

There is growing concern among Russians about the stability of the ruble exchange rate, according to a study by the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. “Owners of ruble savings are increasingly ready to protect their savings by converting them into dollars or euros, which in the future may cause a rush of demand for currency with the prospect of an even worse spiral of the crisis,” the university warns and advises the authorities to take measures to “avoid of this negative scenario."

At the same time, the university believes that the ruble is fundamentally undervalued against the dollar and in the absence of external shocks, we should have seen a strengthening of the ruble against the dollar. “We have to admit that the ruble exchange rate depends to a very large extent on the extent to which the monetary authorities will be able to curb speculative pressure on the ruble. So far, unfortunately, this has not been achieved,” the university states.

The “cure” for the ruble is improving relations with the United States

The current weakening of the ruble is associated with the risk of expanding sanctions against Russia and the general weakness of currencies developing countries, notes Alpari senior analyst Roman Tkachuk. In his opinion, if tomorrow central bank Russia will increase key rate, this is unlikely to help the ruble much. “We need other “medicines” here—improving relations with the United States and stabilizing the dynamics of emerging markets,” says Roman Tkachuk. His colleague Vladislav Antonov recalls that today there will be hearings in the US Senate on the issue of Russian sanctions, and on September 26 there will be a meeting of the FOMC (Committee on open markets US Federal Reserve). But both of these important events are already included in the price of the ruble. “The factors for the depreciation of the ruble have weakened. In this regard, sellers will become more active. I believe that we will see their activity when the dollar drops below 68.85 rubles,” he notes.

“It’s not worth counting on more than 68.7-69 rubles per dollar yet”

The Russian currency strengthened against the dollar and euro yesterday. The Ministry of Finance's auction for the sale of OFZs has been canceled again and is approaching taxable period, and the price of oil is rising. “However, it’s not worth counting on more than a correction of the exchange rate to 68.7-69 rubles per dollar,” believes Vadim Kravchuk, an analyst at the sales department of IFC Solid.

“We need to wait for a correction to 65-66 rubles per dollar”

Today on the MICEX the dollar is worth 69 rubles 65 kopecks, the euro is trading at 80 rubles 70 kopecks,” notes Gleb Zadoya, an expert at Analytics Online. The MICEX index rose to 2345 points, and Brent oil prices settled above $79 per barrel. “The day before, we observed a fairly logical correction of the dollar and euro against the ruble. Speculators, apparently, decided to fix part of the profits received from the latest growth. Pressure on the ruble is associated with sanctions, turbulence in emerging markets, as well as the outflow of capital from non-residents. AND current rate We still do not consider the currency interesting for buying or selling and believe that we need to wait for the rate to correct to the levels of 65-66 rubles per dollar and around these values, buy the dollar at medium term“, the expert believes.

The situation in Syria may also affect the ruble

It is too early to talk about the sustainability of the ruble strengthening trend, says Andrey Kochetkov, leading analyst at Otkritie Broker. He states that yesterday the ruble showed a significant strengthening against its main competitors. At first, this was influenced by the words of the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin that the department maintained its forecast for the strengthening of the ruble to the level of 63-64 rubles per dollar at the end of the year. Then the domestic currency was supported by oil and messages from the Far Eastern Economic Forum, where Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke in favor of striving for mutual settlements in national currencies. However, the expert recalls that there are discussions ahead in the US Senate of new restrictions for the Russian Federation, “and the situation in Syrian Idlib has high risks combat contact between the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the United States."

– expert of the portal “Papa Helped” on financial matters. Subject new article our magazine is more relevant than ever - the relationship between the ruble and the dollar in light of the current political and economic situation in Russia.

People love to make predictions and listen to them as a way to prepare for changes in the future and choose the right direction in the present. It so happens that the economy of our country and the well-being of its population depend on the exchange rate of the dollar, the main reserve currency on the planet.

Forecast exchange rate changes American money in relation to the ruble - a thankless task, but a necessary one. A competent analysis of influencing factors will protect you from financial loss and protect your money.

Looking ahead, I will say that my personal opinion is that the dollar in 2018-2019 will “walk” in the corridor between 64 And 76 rubles. Global changes should not be expected.

Read the article to the end - a lot of interesting things await you!

In this article you will find THREE possible options developments regarding the price of the dollar and its future as a currency

What will happen to the dollar in the near future - 3 scenarios

What should the average citizen believe? How to save your savings from inflation and increase the value of your assets? Which forecasts can you trust?

Perhaps each of us has a friend who knows exactly what will happen to the country’s economy and finances in the near future. And then there are media analysts who say the opposite. The question of whose opinion to choose becomes key.

Right now, forecasters offer a choice of three options for the development of events regarding the dollar exchange rate. Let's look at them in detail.

The occurrence of these options has different probabilities, but none of them should be excluded.

Option 1. The dollar will fall below 50 rubles

This point of view is shared by a small group of experts. This is not a matter of patriotism: adherents of this scenario believe that the Russian financial system has sufficient reserves. And it will be enough not only to stabilize the exchange rate, but also to gradually increase the ruble against the dollar.

The increase in the Central Bank rate is an indirect factor in favor of the strengthening of the dollar. Experts who are cautious in their forecasts do not promise too sharp a rise in the ruble, but they also do not believe in its fall, especially in the first half of 2019.

According to their calculations, the cost $$ will fluctuate in the range 63-66 rubles for one “green president”.

Option 2. The dollar will rise to 90 rubles

Behind Last year The ruble exchange rate fell by 20%. A scenario in which the same thing happens next year is quite likely. No one is going to lift the sanctions; on the contrary, they are being tightened even more.

Relations with Ukraine are not improving, and prices for oil, gas and other natural energy sources are not growing significantly. The state budget RF 70% consists of revenues from minerals. As soon as the price of oil falls by even a fraction of a percent, this will inevitably affect the position of the ruble.

Another significant point is the outflow of capital from the Russian economy. According to statistics, the outflow is more than10 billion rubles per month . They're leaving foreign investors, and people who have substantial funds prefer to keep their savings in foreign banks. GDP is also not growing, which means it is becoming increasingly difficult to support the national currency with production.

Option 3. The dollar will “walk in the corridor” between 60 and 80 rubles

This is the most sober and reasonable scenario. Its adherents believe that nothing extraordinary will happen to quotes. The trend of a slow decline in the value of the ruble will continue, but no major shocks are expected in 2019.

Which forecast to believe - that is the question. According to the government, ordinary citizens have nothing to fear. In Russia, local producers have gradually awakened from hibernation, and tightening sanctions will not affect the domestic economic situation in any way. Maybe so, who knows...

But the population is afraid to “take the word” of such a forecast. However, he still sees no reason to urgently buy dollars, despite the current political situation.

Below I have clearly shown what factors will lead to each of the three options described above.

Forecast comparison table:

In Russia, the exchange rate depends not only on the economy, but also on politics. The more difficult it is to make financial forecasts even for the next few months. Even the Hydrometeorological Center often makes mistakes in weather predictions, what to expect from forecasters exchange rate, even more changeable than the weather.

And yetIt is necessary to study and analyze currency forecasts, and for the following reasons:

• you will know whether it is worth investing in dollars in the near future or whether it is better to keep assets in national currency;
• save your capital in case of a sharp fall in the RUR exchange rate;
• make money on quotes;
• you will have time to exchange favorable exchange rate some money for others before everyone else does.

The current ratio of the ruble/dollar pair is a kind of indicator indicating what changes and what kind of life awaits us in the near future. But it is extremely difficult to predict currency quotes when you do not know all the plans of the US and Russian governments.

A good example

While I was preparing this article, a key event occurred in financial policy Russia: The Central Bank raised the key rate for the first time since 2014. The reason for this decision is to reduce the risks of inflation and prevent a sharp collapse of the ruble. The strengthening of the ruble currency should stop the growth of the dollar in 2018-2019. But there are many other factors that could significantly affect the Central Bank's expectations.

Dollar forecast - what Russian and foreign economists are talking about

Now let's turn to specific specialists. Let me warn you right away that the opinions given below cannot be considered as a guide to action. They are given for informational purposes in order to show the most characteristic trends among analysts and economic forecasters.

Alpari analysts

Experts think tank Alpari companies believe that raising the rate will prevent the ruble from sliding further down. In addition, there is a tendency for oil prices to rise. If the indicator remains above 80$ per barrel, there is a possibility of stabilization national currency.

Analysts believe that now the only factor negatively affecting the ruble is the geopolitical background. The “real” exchange rate (economically determined) is now approximately 63 rubles .

Minister of Economic Development M. Oreshkin

A representative of the Russian government is no less optimistic and predicts that at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 the value of the dollar will be within 63-64 rubles. Maxim Oreshkin said that he sees no reason for the growth of quotes.

In his opinion, there are three factors that play “for” the ruble:

• the expected embargo on Iran;
• reduction in oil production in a number of OPEC countries;
• explosion of an Iraqi gas pipeline.

However, volatility (currency exchange rate fluctuations) will be significant. For the ordinary population, this means that you should not panic and transfer savings from one currency to another, especially doing this repeatedly. Speculation should only be undertaken by those who have experience working on the stock exchange.

Where to see the dollar chart online in real time

The best option is to look at charts on the official websites of Russian banks or large trading resources such as Finam or BCS.

However, there are a lot of portals on financial topics that publish real-time graphs of quotes - any brokers or exchanges provide such a service to everyone.

It is also very convenient to look at the dollar chart for different periods on Investing.com

Dollar chart from Investing.com

Law banning the dollar in the Russian Federation – rumors or truth

The introduction of new sanctions against the Russian financial system could jeopardize the dollar savings of the population. However, the Central Bank, the government and commercial banks(in particular, VTB) intend to protect the deposits of ordinary citizens.

If the American government bans the use of US national currency by Russian banks, depositors will have their savings returned in other money. Which ones are still unknown. The head of VTB A. Kostin is confident that the Russian banking system will be able to cope with the consequences of such sanctions. Moreover, he doubts that such measures will be taken at all.

A complete independent departure from the use of the dollar in the Russian economic and financial system requires measures to state level. This is exactly what A. Abramov, a professor at the Russian Higher School of Economics, thinks. In an interview " Rossiyskaya newspaper“He stated that “dedollarization” is not a bad idea in itself and should eliminate periodic devaluations of the ruble, which now occur every 7-8 years.

To avoid this, it is necessary to change the one-sided structure of the domestic economy, which constantly depends on the price of Natural resources. People will believe in the ruble if the government manages to “detach the country’s economy from oil prices.”

However, already now the Russian Federation’s settlements with its closest neighbors (countries former USSR) are mainly in rubles. Deputy Minister of Finance Alexey Moiseev believes that if this trend continues and progresses, then in 2 years it will be possible to seriously think about de-dollarizing Russia. But in the coming months such an idea will not be feasible. This means that the law banning the dollar in Russia is so far nothing more than rumors.

Frequently asked questions about the dollar exchange rate and its future

And now, answers to the most pressing questions from our readers about the fate of the ruble and dollar in the foreseeable future.

If you don't find the answer to your question, ask it in the comments.

These are the most popular questions about the dollar from all over the Russian Internet. Maybe yours is among them?

Question 1. When will the dollar fall? Vladimir, 32 years old, Moscow

This question is partly answered above: when will the price of oil rise or Russian economy will no longer depend on fluctuations in the cost of raw materials. This is unlikely to happen in the near future.

Question 2. Should we believe the news about the dollar and if so, what kind? Ekaterina, 42 years old, Voronezh

Under no circumstances should you believe all news, rumors, forecasts and speculation unconditionally. Even government assurances should not be trusted 100%. However, people of the older generation know this anyway.

Question 3. What dollar dynamics are most likely awaiting us in 2018-2019? Oleg, 29 years old, Stavropol

As I already said, volatility (rate fluctuations) will definitely be present in the next 6 months. But no one knows in which direction the graph will move – decline or growth.

Maxim Oreshkin, already mentioned by us, advises Russians to get rid of dollars and buy rubles. His forecast is cost reduction American currency before 63 rubles. Another question: even if this happens, where is the guarantee that the next jump will not return quotes to their previous level?

Question 4: Will the dollar rise or fall next year? Victor, 35 years old, Kazan

Professional experts working in largest companies Russia and the world have in their arsenal huge amounts of information and the most modern software for calculating the probabilities of events based on statistics, stock market fluctuations and other influencing factors. But even they regularly make mistakes in their forecasts.

In quiet times economic periods their forecasts are more reliable, but few people need them. But with the onset of unstable times economic analyzes are becoming less and less reliable. This happens because no one can take into account the full diversity of life in their forecasts.

In other words, there is no exact answer to this question. No one really knows what will happen to the national currency in the coming months.

Question 5. Is it worth buying dollars now in order to make money on its growth in the future? Igor, 37 years old, Tambov

This is the key question. People are not as interested in political intrigue as they are in their own savings. If you constantly keep savings in rubles, inflation will destroy the profit on the deposit. Currency deposits more promising in terms of preserving and increasing funds. But not always.

Therefore, experts advise balancing risks and distributing assets across three major currencies at once. If you keep money in rubles, dollars and euros in a ratio of 40/30/30, the likelihood of losing funds will be minimal.

Question 6. I don’t understand what’s happening with the dollar, why is its rate jumping so much? Lyudmila, 27 years old, Simferopol

It is not the dollar that is jumping, but the ruble against the dollar. The value of the dollar itself remains approximately the same. This does not mean that American money is not subject to inflation and other processes characteristic of any currency. It’s just that this is not happening as sharply as in the case of our domestic currency.

Question 8. Like many people, I recently wondered when the dollar will collapse, because the US national debt has crossed all acceptable limits for a long time, and if this happens, what will happen to the world economy? Nikolay, 54 years old, Vladivostok

Yes, the US national debt has already exceeded Country's GDP, and the American government solves all financial problems in the simplest way - by turning on the printing press. The system is not supported by anything material and yet it works.

Experts say that the dollar will continue to serve as the world's reserve currency as long as countries use this money for international payments and keep it safe. domestic banks. Another factor in the stability of the dollar is the political strength of the United States. As long as the country is taken into account, its money, even if not backed by anything, will be in demand.

The whole drama of the situation is that if in the USA there is economic crisis, this will affect everything world economy, including Russian ones.

Be sure to watch the recent speech of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, where he proposes to abandon the dollar, which is generally logical from his words:

conclusions

Everyone is interested in the dollar exchange rate - from housewives to stock traders. Millions of people around the world keep their assets in dollars. This is the number one reserve currency in the Russian Federation and a reliable financial instrument.

Everyone loves dollars, and not because they adore America. It’s just that the dollar tends to steadily increase in value relative to many other national currencies. This does not mean that US money is not subject to periodic fluctuations in value. This happens to them too, but not as clearly and often as with the ruble.

Need to remember:

1. The ruble exchange rate depends on both the economy and geopolitics.
2. No expert can give a 100% correct forecast, since he is unable to take into account the entire variety of factors.
3. It is safest to keep your savings in several currencies.
4. And it’s even safer to invest assets in more profitable instruments (stocks and bonds).

So, the answer to the question of what will happen to the dollar in the near future does not have a clear answer. And it’s worth making money on speculation only if you have experience stock trading. But it is better for the common man to keep his money in different financial instruments in addition to currency: real estate, precious metals, Mutual Funds (mutual investment funds).

AiF.ru interviewed financial experts and found out what factors will support the ruble in the second half of the year, and, conversely, what difficulties the Russian currency may encounter.

"American Menace"

Anastasia Sosnova, analyst investment company Freedom Finance:“The ruble, like other emerging market currencies, will remain under pressure from the normalization of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve in the second half of 2018. This suggests that in the long term, capital outflows from emerging markets into US dollars will continue.

Against this background, it makes no sense to expect a significant strengthening of the national currency by the end of the year. The Russian currency may still fall in price against the dollar to 66 rubles.

Periods of increased volatility for the ruble are likely to be September and December, as two rate hikes are expected in the United States during these months.”

“The ruble has become untied from oil”

Alexey Fedorenko, asset manager financial company ICBF:“Thanks to the Ministry of Finance’s operations in the market, the ruble is practically independent of oil market. It is much more influenced by the actions of non-residents, so the main risks for the exchange rate lie in the area of ​​investor sentiment on global market. There are no particular reasons for a serious drop in the value of the national currency: after weakening in early April, quotes move in a fairly narrow range with attempts to overcome the mark of 64 rubles per dollar once a month.

Entering duties largest economies world contributes to slower growth world GDP, which worries investors and forces them to withdraw money from developing countries. If the situation does not change, then the Russian currency may well eventually overcome the current “ceiling” and gain a foothold above 64.50 rubles per dollar and 74.50 per euro. At the same time, it is worth taking into account the massive conversions of domestic exporters exchanging foreign currency earnings to pay taxes, thus, at the end of each month, the ruble will get a break and try to grow, but the long-term picture is not in its favor.”

“The championship will end, the currency will strengthen”

Dmitry Zharsky, director of the Veta Expert Group:“In the second half of the year, the ruble will first of all lose support from the cash flow that the guests of the 2018 World Cup brought into the economy. This is about 0.5-1 billion dollars that came to currency market and did not allow the dollar to rise above 64 rubles.

With the end of the championship, this support will come to naught, but the federal regional budgets there will be a need to spend 300-500 million rubles a year on each of the stadiums built for the championship just to maintain them.

Among the main factors putting pressure on the ruble is an increase in the US Federal Reserve rate, and as a result, an increase in global interest in the dollar and a drop in demand for the currencies of developing countries. The growing reserve rate attracts capital into the US economy, diverting it from riskier assets, which, of course, include the ruble and Russian OFZs.

I believe that in the second half of 2018 the dollar will trade in the range of 65 - 70 rubles, gravitating towards the upper limit by the end of the year. For the euro, the range will be 75 - 83 rubles, the upper limit is a priority.”

"September and December are difficult months"

Olga Prokhorova, expert at the International Financial Center:“The Bank of Russia does not yet intend to tighten monetary policy and raise rates, which are already in comparison with developed countries quite high - that's on the one hand. On the other hand, rates are rising in the US, and the quantitative easing program is being phased out in Europe, and there is a prospect of raising rates in the eurozone as early as next year.

That is, both the dollar and the euro are following the path of appreciation (according to at least, so far we see this trend). What can't be said about Russian ruble, the dynamics of which are no longer a derivative of oil prices, as it was before.

As for the most “difficult” periods for the ruble, these could be September and December; it is during these months that the Fed could presumably raise rates again. Also, on December 3, there will be an OPEC meeting, the outcome of which is not yet possible to predict, since the issues discussed at it will largely depend on the dynamics and conditions of the oil market in the coming months.”

"Dangerous Trade Warriors and Key Bets"

Ivan Kopeikin, expert at the financial company BKS Broker: “The key risks for the ruble in the second half of the year are likely to be: further tightening monetary policy world central banks. In particular, in the near future the Fed will increase the volume of operations to reduce its balance sheet to $40 billion, and may also raise rates twice more before the end of the year. At the same time, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are gradually winding down their incentives. All this could lead to an acceleration of capital outflow from developing countries and pressure on the Russian currency.

Among the significant risks, in my opinion, it is also worth highlighting trade wars, which may continue to negatively affect the global economy, and, accordingly, commodity assets and the ruble. At the same time, the VAT increase announced by the government may further slow down the growth rate national economy and increase capital outflow from the country.

The most difficult period is traditionally the 4th quarter and in particular November and December. Since during this period maximum payments on external borrowings occur in foreign currency. If we take into account seasonality, then October and September, as well as the past February, March and April, are usually moderately light.

The maximum values, in my opinion, could be 66.5-67 for the dollar/ruble pair and 79-80 for the euro/dollar pair.”

Will the dollar continue to rise in 2018, or will there be a collapse? What will happen to the dollar exchange rate in the near future? Is it worth transferring accumulated funds into national currency or, conversely, urgently purchasing American currency units?

Expert opinions on these issues, as well as the quarterly forecast of the dollar/ruble exchange rate, are in the article below.

Dollar exchange rate trend in the near future

Factors shaping the value of the dollar:

• Economic situation of the issuer's country. External debt The US continues to grow. In this connection, some experts predict the formation of a budget deficit, which cannot but affect the exchange rate of the national currency.
• Liquidity and convertibility. To date U.S. $ is the undisputed leader in demand among world currencies. Such high demand is a powerful strengthening and stabilizing factor.
• Economic crisis in some European Union countries. Unstable economic situation in Europe does not allow the euro, despite its higher value relative to the dollar, to become a worthy replacement.
• Actions aimed at strengthening the currency. The US government announces its intention to introduce a number of tax changes. According to analysts, this will not only strengthen the current dollar exchange rate, but also provoke an increase in its value to 1.10 against the euro.
• Geopolitical situation and oil prices. Economic sanctions and the fall in the value of “black gold” in general do not have a very favorable impact on the domestic economy Russian Federation and the ruble exchange rate, respectively. However, over the past year, the sharp fall in the national currency predicted by analysts did not occur. The same situation is expected in the coming year.

It is worth noting that expert opinions regarding the dollar exchange rate for 2018 differ significantly.

Much will depend on the effectiveness of the reforms planned in the United States, the cost of oil, and the general economic situation in Russia and the world.

For example, last year in 2017, the dollar was also predicted to grow, but the expected jump in the exchange rate did not occur, thanks to the relatively stable price of oil.

Forecast for spring 2018

According to analysts, the economic situation in the Russian Federation will not undergo any major changes in the first quarter of 2018. And the price for one dollar will range from 53 to 59 rubles.

The only risk factor remains a difficult situation with Ukraine. Because if the conflict escalates, it is possible that old sanctions will be tightened and/or new ones will be introduced, which could serve to destabilize the ruble.

Expert forecast for summer 2018

Forecasts for the second quarter of 2018 are more encouraging. Some experts promise a record drop in the dollar to the level of early 2015, when its value dropped to 51 rubles. The reason for such an increase in the national currency exchange rate should be the World Cup, which will be held in Russia this year. The expected influx of tourists carrying euros and dollars should lead to some depreciation of foreign currencies.

But by the end of August they predict an increase in the value of the dollar to 59-62 rubles.

What changes in the dollar exchange rate should we expect in the fall of 2018?

In the absence of such unfavorable factors as tougher sanctions, an escalation of the conflict with Ukraine or a decline in oil prices, analysts do not foresee major changes in the ruble exchange rate against the dollar.

The only exception can be considered the month of November, for which a record increase in the dollar exchange rate for the year is predicted. It is assumed that its cost can rise to 65 rubles. A possible reason is the entry into force of an international treaty from 2016 to reduce oil production.

Forecast for the end of 2018

Most experts are still inclined to believe that the ruble will be able to stabilize in December 2018. And they expect the dollar to fall to 62 rubles.

In general, analysts’ forecasts for the dollar exchange rate in 2018 are positive, and they do not foretell any truly serious changes.

You can find out about rising inflation.