Economists of the first half of XIX centuries paid attention to the processes of an oscillatory nature with a duration of 7 to 11 years, known as industrial-capitalist cycles. They are composed of three recurring phases: "upswing - crisis - depression".

Having studied extensive statistical material related to the cyclical alternation of alternating phases in industrial production, the Russian economist, Professor N. D. Kondratiev (1982 - 1938) established the existence of long waves, or large conjuncture cycles.

According to the concept of long waves, the development of the economy is reduced not only to medium and short cycles, but also covers a longer "big cycle", covering a period of 45 to 60 years.

To substantiate the conclusions, N. D. Kondratiev studied the statistical data of England, Germany, and the USA for the period from the end of the 18th century to the end of the 18th century. (since the beginning of the industrial revolution and dynamic development business systems). The scope of statistical data processing included commodity price indices, the rate of rent and interest on capital, the dynamics of wages of agricultural and industrial workers, the turnover foreign trade, as well as other important economic indicators, including coal consumption, iron and steel production.

Kondratiev developed the idea of ​​a plurality of cycles, highlighting various models of cyclical fluctuations

N. D. Kondratiev singled out the existence of three large cycles of conjuncture over a 140-year period industrial development world economy: This segment accounted for 2.5 large cycles.

The first cycle: the upward wave began in the late 80s and early 90s. 18th century and continued until 1810 - 1817; the downward wave ended in 1844-1851.

The second cycle: an upward wave appeared before 1870 - 1875; a downward wave was noted until 1890 - 1896.

The third cycle: the upward wave persisted until 1914-1920, then the onset of a downward wave is likely. In his theory, N. D. Kondratiev predicted the “Great Depression” of the 1930s. 20th century

In order to identify large cycles of the conjuncture, Kondratiev designated the industrial-capitalist cycles as average cycles with a length of 9 years. This was necessary to equalize the statistical data, since it extinguished the influence of small cycles with shorter fluctuations of 3–3.5 years, which the English economist J. Kitchin drew attention to.

According to the results of the study, N. D. Kondratiev established that before the beginning of the upward wave of each large cycle, there were profound changes in the technique (technology) of production based on the emergence of cardinal inventions and discoveries, radical innovations (the first empirical correctness, in the terminology of N. D. Kondratiev).

The first great cycle of the economic situation, its upward wave, was facilitated by changes in the weaving, chemical and metallurgical industries.

The beginning of the upward wave of the second large cycle was preceded by the inventions of the turbine, the reaper, the telegraph by S. Morse, the steam pump, the sewing machine, the discovery of electromagnetic induction by M. Faraday, the creation of the theory of the magnetic field by J. Maxwell, and the development of railway transport.

The upward wave of the third big cycle of the conjuncture was the invention of the electric motor, in particular, the creation of a three-phase asynchronous AC motor by the Russian electrical engineer M. O. Dolivo-Dobrovolsky, as well as the development of the theory of steelmaking by the Russian scientist and metallurgist D. K. Chernov.

This first empirical correctness of N.D. Kondratiev goes into more detail when he says that changes in technology undoubtedly have a powerful influence on the course of capitalist dynamics. But no one has proved that these changes in technology are accidental and incidental.

Changes in the field of production technology imply two conditions:

Firstly, the availability of relevant scientific and technical discoveries and inventions,

Secondly, the economic possibilities of applying these discoveries and inventions in practice.

Of course, it would be a mistake to deny the element of creativity in scientific and technological discoveries and inventions, but from a scientific point of view it would be an even greater mistake to think that the direction and intensity of these discoveries and inventions are completely accidental.

It is immeasurably more likely to assume that the direction and intensity of scientific and technical discoveries and inventions are a function of the demands of practical reality and the previous development of science and technology.

The second empirical correctness boils down to the fact that periods of upward waves of large cycles are accompanied by major social upheavals in the life of society, while these upheavals are insignificant on the downside.

The third empirical correctness in the big cycles of the conjuncture is characterized by the depression of agriculture on the downward part of the wave.

The fourth observable correctness comes down to the fact that large cycles of conjuncture are revealed in the same single process of dynamics economic development, in which medium cycles with their phases of rise, crisis and depression also appear. Therefore, middle cycles seem to be strung on waves of large cycles.

Consequently, the nature of the phase of a large cycle cannot but be reflected in the course of medium cycles. So, if you observe a down period of a large cycle, then all the uptrends of the middle cycles will be weakened, and the downtrends will be strengthened by the general downwave of the big cycle. Brief and weak rises in the average cycles will be accompanied by long and deeper depressions.

Further, N. D. Kondratiev came to the conclusion that the upward wave of a large cycle is associated with the renewal and expansion of basic capital goods, with radical changes in the productive forces of society. This process requires huge reserves of capital, in particular, to replace its passive part (buildings, structures, communications, etc.). Hence it is necessary that the capital growth curve be above the current investment curve for the replacement of the active part of the capital in the form of machine tools, Vehicle and so on. Concentration, according to the theory of N. D. Kondratiev, capital contributes to the credit system and the stock exchange. The curve of the rate of capital accumulation is much higher at the stage of the downward-depressive wave, since capital investments are declining. It creates accumulative conditions for the next upward stage of a large cycle of economic conjuncture.

Data economic concepts laid the necessary foundation for further research economic essence innovation processes within the framework of modern theories.

They have a dual effect on the dynamics of economic growth: on the one hand, they open up new opportunities for economic expansion, on the other hand, they make it impossible to continue this expansion in traditional directions.

They upset the economic balance, bringing resentment with the creative destruction of the economic system. They cause its transition from one state of equilibrium to another. This transition is associated with fluctuations in the dynamics of economic indicators. Periodicity in the emergence of innovations can cause cyclicality in economic development.

Such a connection was noticed by Kondratiev himself. At present, the opinion is expressed that the relative correctness of the alternation of upward and downward phases of the Kondratiev waves (each phase is 20-30 years) is determined by the nature of the group of nearby medium-term cycles. During the upward phase of the Kondratiev wave, the rapid expansion of the economy inevitably brings society into the need for change. But the possibilities of changing society lag behind the requirements of the economy, so development goes into a downward B-phase, during which crisis-depressive phenomena and difficulties force us to rebuild economic and other relations.

Story

The theory was developed by the Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev (1892-1938). The characteristic period is 50 years with a possible deviation of 10 years (from 40 to 60 years). Cycles consist of alternating phases of relatively high and relatively low economic growth rates. Many economists do not recognize the existence of such waves.

N.D. Kondratiev noted four empirical correctness in the development of large cycles:

1. Before the beginning of the upward wave of each large cycle, and sometimes at the very beginning of it, significant changes are observed in the conditions of the economic life of society.

Changes are expressed in technical inventions and discoveries, in changing conditions monetary circulation, in strengthening the role of new countries in world economic life, etc. Mentioned changes to one degree or another occur constantly, but, according to N.D. Kondratiev, they proceed unevenly and are most intensely expressed before the start of upward waves of large cycles and at their beginning.

2. Periods of upward waves of large cycles, as a rule, are much richer in major social upheavals and upheavals in the life of society (revolutions, wars) than periods of downward waves.

In order to be convinced of this statement, it is enough to look at the chronology of armed conflicts and coups and world history.

3. The downward waves of these great cycles are accompanied by a prolonged depression in agriculture.

4. Large cycles of the economic situation are revealed in the same single process of the dynamics of economic development, in which medium cycles with their phases of rise, crisis and depression are also revealed.

Kondratiev's research and conclusions were based on an empirical analysis of a large number of economic indicators of various countries over fairly long periods of time, spanning 100-150 years. These indicators are: price indices, government debt securities, nominal wages, foreign trade turnover indicators, coal mining, gold mining, lead, iron production, etc.

Kondratiev's opponent D. I. Oparin pointed out that the time series of the studied economic indicators, although they give larger or smaller deviations from medium size in one direction or another at different times economic life, but the nature of these deviations, both in terms of a separate indicator and the correlation of indicators, does not allow us to single out a strict cyclicity. Other opponents pointed to N. D. Kondratiev’s deviations from Marxism, in particular, his use of the “quantity theory of money” to explain the cycles.

The summary system of Kondratiev waves and their corresponding technological modes is as follows:

1st cycle - textile factories, industrial use of coal.
2nd cycle - coal mining and ferrous metallurgy, railway construction, steam engine.
3rd cycle - heavy engineering, electric power industry, inorganic chemistry, steel production and electric motors.
4th cycle - production of automobiles and other machines, chemical industry, oil refining and internal combustion engines, mass production.
5th cycle - development of electronics, robotics, computing, laser and telecommunications technology.
6th cycle - perhaps NBIC convergence (convergence of nano-, bio-, information and cognitive technologies). After the 2030s (2050s according to other sources), a technological singularity is possible, which is not amenable to this moment analysis and forecast. If this hypothesis is correct, then the Kondratiev cycles may end closer to 2030.

Limitations of the Kondratieff Model

Kondratiev waves have not yet received final recognition in world science. Some scientists build calculations, models, forecasts based on K-waves (all over the world and especially in Russia), and a significant part of economists, including the most famous ones, doubt their existence or deny them altogether.

It should be noted that, despite the importance of the cyclical development of society discovered by N. D. Kondratiev for forecasting tasks, his model (as well as any stochastic model) only studies the behavior of the system in a fixed (closed) environment. Such models do not always provide answers to questions related to the nature of the system itself, the behavior of which is being studied. It is well known that the behavior of the system is important aspect in her study. However, no less important, and perhaps even the most important, are aspects of the system related to its genesis, structural (gestalt) aspects, aspects of the complementarity of the logic of the system with its subject, etc. It is they that allow us to correctly raise the question of the causes of a particular type of behavior systems depending, for example, on the environment in which it operates. In this sense, Kondratiev cycles are just a consequence (result) of the system's reaction to the current external environment. The issue of revealing the nature of the process of such a response today and revealing the factors that influence the behavior of systems is relevant. Especially when many, relying on the results of N. D. Kondratiev, A. V. Korotaev and S. P. Kapitsa on the compaction of time, predict a more or less rapid transition of society to a period of permanent crisis.

Notes

see also

Links

• Kondratieff Waves in World Economic Dynamics
• ASCAR AKAEV: Modern financial and economic crisis in the light of the theory of Kondratieff cycles
• NR2_En: Scientists have very little time left in Russia - In the context of globalization, it has no chance - 26.04.2010

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See what "Kondratiev cycles" are in other dictionaries:

Kondratieff cycles- Long waves of technical and economic development in the world economy, reflecting the cyclical nature of scientific technical progress(the current, fifth cycle is associated with the introduction of microelectronics, new structural materials, biotechnologies and ... ... Geography Dictionary

KONDRATIEV CYCLES- (Kondratieff cycles) very long (approximately 55 years) trading cycles, named after the Russian economist N. Kondratiev. See Theory of Long Waves; Schumpeter ... Big explanatory sociological dictionary

- (Kondratieff waves) Long cycles economic activity, the existence of which was predicted by the Russian economist N.D. Kondratiev (1892–1931); died during Stalin's purges. The length of the cycles was determined at about 40 years, the last recession ... ... Glossary of business terms

Large Kondratieff cycles- - Kondratiev N.D. (1892-1938) - the author of the theory of large cycles of economic conjuncture. Having expressed this idea in the work world economy and his conjuncture during and after the war in 1922, he develops and substantiates it in his articles Controversial ... ... Dictionary of Economic Theory

Kondratieff cycles- long cycles (in the economy) long waves (in the economy) Discovered by the outstanding Soviet economist N.D. Kondratiev, the phenomenon of long-term periodicity of the economic situation in a number of countries (according to calculations, this period is about 50 60 ... ... Technical Translator's Handbook

Kondratieff cycles- the same: long cycles, long waves discovered by the outstanding Soviet economist N.D. Kondratiev, the phenomenon of long-term periodicity of the economic situation in a number of countries (according to calculations, this period is about ... ... Economic and Mathematical Dictionary

Economic cycles Cycle name Characteristic period Kitchin cycle 3 4 years Juglar cycle 7 11 years Kuznets cycle 15 25 years Kondratieff cycle 45 60 years Juglar cycles are medium-term economic cycles with a characteristic period of 7 11 years. Named after ... ... Wikipedia

I would like to dwell in more detail on the works of N. D. Kondratiev, whose name entered the world economic science as the creators of the theory of large cycles, long waves in the economy, which represents a new direction in economic thought.

But first, I would like to say a few words about the economic cycles themselves.

classic model business cycle includes 4 phases: crisis, depression, recovery and growth.

Crisis - the initial phase of the economic cycle, expressed in the fall of national production, bankruptcy of enterprises, panic on stock exchanges, an increase in the cost of borrowed capital due to increased demand for it, an increase in unemployment, a drop in the level of well-being of the population and demand;

Depression - a phase of stagnation following the crisis, is expressed in: a decline in production to the "bottom" and stagnation in it, a gradual sale of stocks of goods, sometimes at reduced prices;

Recovery - a phase of a gradual exit from the crisis and depression, the signs of which are the re-equipment of production, attracting investment, increasing employment, income and demand;

Usually, when a country's economy recovers, real GDP exceeds pre-crisis levels.

Rise or boom - a phase of a short-term rapid rise in the volume of production and, at the same time, prerequisites for the onset of a new recession appear, its signs are: a rapid increase in business entities, full employment limited resources, the economy can no longer cope with growing demand, which causes rising prices (inflation), rising incomes and savings, reducing lending rates, hype on the stock exchanges.

Although economic downturns and depressions are a tragedy for many entrepreneurs and ordinary citizens, they constitute a necessary moment in the development of the economy, putting society before the fact of violation of macroeconomic economic balance with all the consequences, forcing to restore this balance. Recessions and depressions cleanse the economy of weak and inefficient entrepreneurs and become an incentive to improve business and the way the government regulates it. Therefore, after recession and depression comes inspiration, which reaches an even greater peak of development ...

A sad role in the fate of the scientist, N. D. Kondratiev, an economist, was played by the fact that in 1927 he sharply criticized the five-year planning project, defending the idea that long-term plans should not constrain specific directions of development, quantitative indicators, but the general direction of development, for which he was falsely accused and convicted twice: the first time for 8 years, the second time - to death. But 60 years later, his name was returned to economic science and both sentences were canceled (posthumously)

According to Kondratiev, who became the classic theory of large cycles, “... Wars and Revolutions arise on the basis of real and, above all, economic conditions... on the basis of an increase in the pace and tension of the conjuncture of economic life, an aggravation economic competition for markets and raw materials ... Social upheavals occur most easily precisely during the period of the stormy onslaught of new economic forces.

N. D. Kondratiev, having studied statistical and descriptive data on the dynamics of the economic situation in England, France, Germany and the United States at the end of the 18th century, came to the conclusion that there are large cycles economic situation lasting about 48 - 55 years, according to his research, the first such cycle began in 1780-90s and lasted until 1844-51s; the second cycle - from 1841-51 to 1890-96; the third - from 1890-96 to 1939-45.

In Figure 1, we see these cycles to the present day and the trends in the development of society.

Picture 1.

Kondratiev established 4 trends in the development of large economic cycles:

1) at the beginning of the upward wave of each cycle, profound changes are observed in the conditions of the economic life of society (significant changes in technology, technical discoveries and inventions, the involvement of new countries in the world economic ties, changes in gold production and monetary circulation);

2) periods of an upward wave of each cycle account for the largest number social upheavals (wars, revolutions)

3) periods of a downward wave of large cycles are accompanied by a long and pronounced depression in agriculture.

4) during the period of the upward wave of large cycles, the average capitalist cycles, characterized by the brevity of depressions and the intensity of the rise; during the period of the downward wave of the boiler cycles, the reverse picture is observed. Today economics defines the phenomenon of Kondratiev cycles as follows: these are market fluctuations of 45-60 years, manifested in price dynamics, output and indicators various industries and areas of the national economy, determined by long-term changes in trends in supply and demand.

Cycles of the long wave of economic development and cycles technological development are in a causal relationship: each economic downturn and the subsequent depression trigger an innovation process that demanded new technologies and thus stimulated the next wave of technological upsurge.

Technological change is closely linked to social, political and cultural shifts. Each of the shifts solves certain problems of society, but immediately gives rise to new ones, sometimes even more acute ones, and the social system inevitably experiences ups and downs.

At the same time, the end of the previous wave of historical development is the beginning of a new wave, and the past era does not disappear without a trace - it continues to live in the form of technology and technology, culture and worldview of people that determine the choice of the further movement of society.

Along with the Kondratiev cycles, a different point of view on the cycles of evolution of the world economic and political system, which is held by the Russian sociologist V.I. Patin, is widespread.

According to the system he developed, the full cycle of the world economy and political system includes four phases of major shifts: structural crisis, technological revolution (industrial and technological revolution), great upheavals in the international economy and politics, revolution international market. The combination of these phases forms a spiral of world development, while the phrases of a structural crisis and great upheavals in the international economy and politics correspond to the downward waves of the Kondratieff cycles, and the phases of the technological revolution and the revolution of the international market correspond to upward ones (see Table 1) .

Table 1. Cycles of evolution of the economic and political system

It follows from the table that the world is currently at the end of a phase of technological revolution that contributes to the economic and social development, and on the eve of the approaching phrases of great upheavals in the world of economics and politics.

From this review of business cycle theories, it can be seen that economists explain the cyclical nature of economic development in different ways.

All of them are right in their own way, because the economy, as a large system of connections and dependencies, is very sensitive to all factors of influence, of which there are a lot. Therefore, the economy is constantly undergoing cyclical fluctuations. Cyclicity should be considered as a natural form, or as: “the pattern of the development of a market economy”.

However, along with cyclical ones, there are also non-cyclical fluctuations in the economy, which are caused by disproportions between individual spheres and sectors of the economy, and therefore are called structural crises.

Examples of such crises are energy, food, raw materials, environmental and others. Non-cyclical crises, of course, affect the course of economic cycles. One of these structural crises occurred in 1973-1975. because of that that the Arab oil-producing countries have sharply raised the price of oil

The concept has been actively researched and developed throughout its existence, however, a broad consensus in the community of economists on its practical applicability has not been reached: many researchers (especially in Russia) widely use Kondratiev cycles in their studies, but a significant part of economists do not consider them or directly rejects the existence of such cycles.

Story

In 1913 the Dutch economist Jacob van Gelderen (need.) Russian in the book " Springvloed, Beschouwingenover industrielle Ontwikkeling en Prijsbewegung”developed a theory of wave-like evolutionary development under capitalism, in which he substantiated the existence of 50-60 year cycles.

The main opponent of Kondratiev in the 1920s - 1930s, Dmitry Oparin, pointed out that the time series of the studied economic indicators, although they give larger or smaller deviations from the average value in one direction or another in different periods of economic life, but the nature of these deviations both for a separate indicator and for the correlation of indicators, do not allow us to single out strict cyclicity. Other opponents have pointed to Kondratieff's departures from Marxism, in particular his use of the quantity theory of money to explain cycles, rather than social mechanisms(Leo Trotsky, for example, in his work “On the Curve of Capitalist Development”, argued that the periods of decline and rise of the capitalist economy in the long run are due to greater or lesser intensity of the class struggle).

The main contribution to the popularization of Kondratiev's ideas was made in his works by Joseph Schumpeter - it was he who introduced the term "Kondratiev waves", and in 1939 in his book "Business Cycles" he supported and developed the regularity discovered by Kondratiev, coupled with 7-11-year production cycles and employment.

Interest in Kondratiev's research among Russian economists resumed after the work of S. Menshikov and L. Klimenko "Long Waves in Economics" in 1989. Among the scientists of the late XX - early XXI centuries, using Kondratieff cycles in their research - Askar Akaev, Lusine Badalyan, Sergey Glazyev, Viktor Dementiev, Viktor Krivorotov, Dmitry Lvov.

Concept

The characteristic period of Kondratiev waves is 50 years with a possible deviation of 10 years (from 40 to 60 years), the cycles consist of alternating phases of relatively high and relatively low economic growth rates. Kondratiev noted four empirical patterns in the development of large cycles.

The first - before the beginning of the upward wave of each large cycle, and sometimes at the very beginning of it, significant changes are observed in the conditions of the economic life of society. Changes are expressed in technical inventions and discoveries, in changing the conditions of money circulation, in strengthening the role of new countries in world economic life. These changes to one degree or another occur constantly, but, according to Kondratiev, they proceed unevenly and are most intensely expressed before the start of upward waves of large cycles and at their beginning.

The second - periods of upward waves of large cycles, as a rule, are much richer in major social upheavals and upheavals in the life of society (revolutions, wars) than periods of downward waves.

Third, the downward waves of these great cycles are accompanied by a prolonged depression in agriculture.

Fourth - large cycles of the economic situation are revealed in the same single process of the dynamics of economic development, in which medium cycles with their phases of rise, crisis and depression are also revealed.

Schumpeter established a connection between long Kondratiev cycles and medium-term Juglar cycles. There is an opinion that the relative correctness of the alternation of the upward and downward phases of the Kondratiev waves (each phase is 20-30 years) is determined by the nature of the group of nearby medium-term cycles. During the upward phase of the Kondratiev wave, the rapid expansion of the economy inevitably brings society into the need for change. But the possibilities of changing society lag behind the requirements of the economy, so development goes into a downward B-phase, during which crisis-depressive phenomena and difficulties force us to rebuild economic and other relations.

Wave dates

For the period after the industrial revolution, the following Kondratiev waves are usually distinguished:

However, there are differences in the dating of "post-Kondratieff" cycles, for example, the following boundaries of the beginning and end of "post-Kondratieff" waves are also given:

• 3rd cycle: 1890-1896 - 1939-1950;
• 4th cycle: 1939-1950 - 1984-1991;
• 5th cycle: 1984-1991 - ?

Correlation with technological structures

Many researchers associate the change of waves with technological structures. Breakthrough technologies open up opportunities for expanding production and form new sectors of the economy that form a new technological order. In addition, Kondratiev waves are one of the most important forms of implementation of the industrial principles of production.

The summary system of Kondratiev waves and their corresponding technological modes is as follows:

• 1st cycle - textile factories, industrial use of coal;
• 2nd cycle - coal mining and ferrous metallurgy, railway construction, steam engine;
• 3rd cycle - heavy engineering, electric power industry, inorganic chemistry, steel production and electric motors;
• 4th cycle - production of automobiles and other machines, chemical industry, oil refining and internal combustion engines, mass production;
• 5th cycle - development of electronics, robotics, computing, laser and telecommunications technology;
• 6th cycle - possibly NBIC convergence (convergence of nano-, bio-, information and cognitive technologies).

Daniel Šmihula in his work " The waves of the technological innovations of the modern age and the present crisis as the end of the wave of the informational technological revolution” (2009) believes that by the beginning of the 21st century, cycles of this type have been reduced in time from 60 to 30 or even 20 years due to the constant acceleration of technological development (see Schmichula cycles).

Notes

1. Korotaev A. V., Grinin L. E. Kondratiev waves in the world-system perspective / Rev. ed. A. A. Akaev, R. S. Grinberg, L. E. Grinin, A. V. Korotaev, S. Yu. Malkov. Volgograd: Uchitel, 2012. S. 58-109
2. Kondratiev N. D. The world economy and its conjuncture during and after the war. Vologda: Regional branch of the State Publishing House, 1922. Ch. 5
3. Cherepkov A. Theory of "Long Waves" by N. D. Kondratiev
4. Schumpeter J. Theory of economic development (book), M.: Progress, 1982. C.49
5. Schumpeter J.A. A Theorist's Comment on the Current Business Cycle . Journal of the American Statistical Association V.30(189), 1935
6. Yakovets Yu. V. The legacy of N. D. Kondratiev: a view from the XXI century / Ed. ed. Yakovets Yu. V.//Kondratiev N. D. Large cycles of the conjuncture and the theory of foresight - M .: Economics, 2002. C.714
7. Schumpeter J.A. Business Cycles McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 1939
8. Korotaev A. V., Grinin L. E. Kondratiev waves in the world-system perspective. Kondratieff Waves: Aspects and Perspectives: Yearbook / Ed. ed. A. A. Akaev, R. S. Grinberg, L. E. Grinin, A. V. Korotaev, S. Yu. Malkov. - Volgograd: Teacher. pp. 58-109
9. See, for example: N. D. Kondratiev. Large conjuncture cycles and the theory of foresight. - M.: Economics, 2002. - 767 p.
10. Grinin L. E. Verbal model of the relationship between long Kondratieff waves and medium-term Juglar cycles // History and Mathematics: Analysis and Modeling of Global Dynamics. Ed. A. V. Korotaev, S. Yu. Malkov, L. E. Grinin. M.: Librokom, 2010. S. 44-111
11. Akaev A. A. Modern financial and economic crisis in the light of the theory of innovative and technological development of the economy and management of the innovation process // . M.: URSS, 2009. S. 141-162.
12. Grinin L. E., Korotaev A. V. global crisis in retrospect. Short story ups and downs from Lycurgus to Alan Greenspan. Moscow: Librocom/URSS, 2009
13. Grinin L. E. Kondratiev waves, technological structures and the theory of production revolutions. Kondratiev waves. Aspects and perspectives/ Rev. ed. A. A. Akaev, R. S. Grinberg, L. E. Grinin, A. V. Korotaev, S. Yu. Malkov. Volgograd: Uchitel, 2012. S. 222-262
14. See, for example: Korotaev A.V., Tsirel S.V. Kondratieff Waves in World Economic Dynamics// System monitoring. Global and regional development / Ed. D. A. Khalturina, A. V. Korotaev. Moscow: Librokom/URSS, 2009. ISBN 978-5-397-00917-1 . pp. 189-229.
15. Vladislav Inozemtsev On a patriotic wave. How do people understand Kondratiev cycles?

Literature

• Kondratiev N. D., Oparin D. I. Large conjuncture cycles: Reports and their discussion at the Institute of Economics. - 1st ed. - M., 1928. - 287 p.
  • 2nd ed.: Kondratiev N. D. Large business cycles: Report// Problems economic dynamics. - M.:

Business cycles that become historical

The current crisis was predetermined. Kondratiev cycles, Schumpeter's theory and Gumilyov's drive

The world is not moving forward. The state of any system can be characterized by a sinusoid - rise, top, decline, crisis, rise. So, it was this dependence that particularly haunted economists. In a science as imprecise as economics, any clear relationship is highly valued. Therefore, the perseverance and enthusiasm with which economists have tried to justify changes in economic systems is not surprising. The ability to predict the situation based on reasonable patterns is the dream of any person directly related to money. And when at one fine moment the question of long-term forecasting arose, it suddenly became clear that the economy is as inherent in cyclicality as in all other facets of our unbearably easy being. Of course, any activity is finite, so stagnation sometimes ends with the death of the system, but for now we will try to neglect this consideration due to its non-constructive nature.

First studies on similar issues are early XIX century. Since then - from Malthus to the present - almost one and a half thousand different types have been discovered.economic ts u cl o in . All of them have a different nature and forms, but, in principle, they can be divided into three main categories:

- short - from one to four to five years, the so-called inventory cycles ( kitchin);

- medium duration - five to ten years, cycles based on human factors, as well as those related to the characteristics of production (cycles Kuznets, Drucker etc.);

- long - 10-25 years, construction and overproduction cycles ( Juglar).

In addition, there are also the so-called long wave cycles, but we will return to them a little later.

Many theories have been developed, each of which tries to find the reasons for the constant deviation of the economic system from a state of equilibrium. A lot of possible causes of cyclical fluctuations have been put forward - from credit policy states to biorhythms and solar activity and their impact on the economy.

1. Money makes the world go round!

The basic postulate of the explanation of short cycles stems from the fact that stocks and finances run out from time to time. Ordinary fiscal year- a kind of artificial analogue of such a cycle - the purchase of goods (rise and peak), its sale (recession and crisis), etc. Among the works devoted to short cycles of macroeconomics, the theory of disequilibrium in the monetary sphere is of interest. This explanation of the business cycle is purely monetary.

One of the proponents of this approach is R. Hawtrey, came to the conclusion that the only reason for the change in periods of prosperity and depression is a change in the state of the cash flow. In his book " Trade and Credit he suggests that when cash flow(or the demand for goods expressed in money) increases, then trade becomes more lively, production expands, prices rise. And vice versa. As we now see, this theory has significant temporal and quantitative limitations, beyond which the theory of monetarism does not withstand any criticism.

The features of the emergence of fluctuations in macroeconomic models in the medium term are primarily related to the human factor.

In this regard, it is interesting . The cornerstone of the cyclical economy are the concepts of fallibility and reflexivity. The criterion of fallibility postulates that it is human nature to make mistakes. There are no absolute truths, no absolute theories, no ideal actions. In preparation and decision making specific situation you can get erroneous data for analysis, you can use an erroneous theory, you can erroneously apply the result of the analysis. Understanding the error dictates a person the need to constantly analyze the situation, look for their mistakes and minimize their consequences. Fluctuations in economic equilibrium are the result of the successes and failures of this analysis.

it is partly right that the social sciences study society, of which the observer himself is a part. Therefore, the perception of the observer can change society itself. As historical examples religion can be brought (changing the situation under ), politics (consequences ), science (the influence of A. Einstein). In other words, reflexivity is a self-arising and self-sustaining process in the social environment, which, under the influence of the perceptions and expectations of the participants, can change the state of this environment in one direction or another. Precisely the presence feedback between the observer and the object of observation explains the difference between the natural and social sciences and the apparent failure of the latter to predict.

2. Long cycles

The reasons for long cycles are infrastructure changes. That is, it turns out that they are caused by the renewal of the most durable objects of the economy - buildings, roads, large complex industries (conveyor lines, large equipment), overhaul production assets, etc. Let's say, if the network of pipelines is one of the main pillars of the economy, then it is clear that its renewal causes some fluctuations in the latter. And since the process of changing the infrastructure is ongoing, in practice it is possible to use the concept of the general background created by the various phases of such a cycle. By the way, for macroeconomic analysis it is very valuable to have an idea about such waves (such as debt payments, depreciation of OPF and infrastructure), projecting them in the form of graphs, you can pre-predict critical points - the intersection (at the bottom point) of several medium- and long-term cycles.

Long waves in the economy or "large cycles of the conjuncture began to be analyzed by economists in the middle of the 19th century. In 1847, an English scientist H.Clark noted that 54 years had passed between the two world "economic catastrophes" of 1793 and 1847 and suggested that such an interval was not accidental and that there must be some "physical" reasons for this phenomenon.

In the 60s of the same century, the theory of cyclic crises was developed. K. Marx. This theory gave impetus to the study of the phenomenon of long waves by Marxist scientists. So in 1901 A.L. Gelfand (better known as I.(L) Parvus ) first formulated that the capitalist economy is characterized by long periods of recession and stagnation. He noted that cyclical crises that occur during the period of recovery are less pronounced, and during the period of recession, on the contrary, they are deeper and longer. The reasons for the rise of the market at the beginning of the twentieth century, this scientist considered the opening of new markets, the introduction of electricity and the growth of gold mining.

An explanation of economic fluctuations in the long run, which boils down to technical innovations and improvements, changes in infrastructure, as well as the involvement in the exploitation of new resources and the development of new territories, was proposed at the beginning of the 20th century by an Austrian economist J. Schumpeter. He outlined his views in the book The Theory of Economic Development.

Often, an innovation represents a historical and irreversible change in the way of production. The introduction of the conveyor, work on the organization of the labor process, the scientific and technological revolution of the 1960s, computerization and informatization of the 1980s-90s. The discovery of new deposits causes a change in the emphasis of the economy, the creation and restructuring of infrastructure. The very infrastructure of the economy is constantly being updated.

Epochs of increased economic activity are periods during which the development of technology and the discovery of new resources create a favorable basis for growth, and above all - for the growth of investment. During such periods, the pace of technological progress is greatly accelerated. In long periods of expansion, revolutionary techniques are introduced that profoundly change the character of the entire economy. This technique creates the basis for an increase in the mass of capital goods and the growth of investment.

According to another fan of innovative theories - M. Spitgof: major innovations entail the creation of new enterprises and new equipment. Prosperity is the result of the practical implementation of innovations, which are the driving force behind the period of prosperity.

As a rule, investors are skeptical about risky undertakings, and not everyone is able to obtain financial support. But once a bold idea has been turned into a business, it is not difficult for others to obtain credit and capital for similar ventures. Whenever a few successful innovators emerge, others immediately follow suit. Thus, the impulse given by the innovator generates a movement of followers, tempted by the opportunity to profit. The economic growth The United States in the late 80s and early 90s, by the way, was involved both in high-tech, which played the role of a kind of engine of the economy, and in Reaganomics.

A recession is nothing more than an adjustment of the economic system to the state to which a boom leads it. Violations arising from innovations cannot disappear on the go, because they are of a capital nature. They consider the existing system and necessitate a specific adjustment process. During a recession economic system moves to a new state of equilibrium following the disturbances caused by the boom. Depression can be defined as a period during which adaptation to a new industrial situation, which was formed in the previous period of innovation, is completed. System restructuring is inevitable. This process embodies the essence of depression, and its implementation is associated with losses, resistance, and the collapse of hopes.

The multitude of innovations which appear in a period of prosperity is precisely the factor which upsets the equilibrium and so alters the conditions of industrial life that it is inevitably followed by a period of adjustment in prices, values, and production.

Here you can remember the unforgettable sir Winston Churchill, the Duke of Marlborough, among whose aphorisms was this: “ The task of a politician is to tell what will happen in the future, and then clearly explain to everyone why this did not happen.". So it is with economists: there is a dependence, it can be explained after the fact, but how to correctly predict what will happen and when? .. This is where the difficulties begin. Of course, some general trends can be predicted, but often only for a short period. And here is the most interesting thing in the theory of cyclicity.

3. Kondratiev cycles, or the theory of long waves of conjuncture

In the mid-1920s, a Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev* put forward the theory of economic cycles lasting 40-60 years. He put forward an idea without any serious theoretical foundations - built solely on empirical observations. During his research, he analyzed some macroeconomic indicators of Western Europe and the United States from 1790 to 1920 (there were no more complete statistics at that time). Having built and smoothed the graphs, eliminating short-term fluctuations (see above), he found that the values ​​of these indicators move synchronously in the long term. The maximums were reached approximately in 1815 and 1873, and the minimums - in 1845 and 1896. In addition, during the rise of the long wave, the number of wars and uprisings increased and new countries and regions were involved in world trade and in the world division of labor. Based on these observations, Kondratiev made a long-term forecast until 2010, predicting not only 1930s, rejection and the crisis of the early 70s (there are reasonable assumptions that by the mid-70s the United Statesn from e sang p o r a women u e in competition with the USSR), but the current crisis:

1 cycle - from 1779 to 1841-43 (growth phase - until 1814; decline - from 1814 to 1841-43).

2 cycle - from 1844-51 to 1890-96 (growth phase - until 1870-75; decline - from 1870-75 to 1891-96).

3 cycle - from 1891-96 to 1929-33 (growth phase - until 1914, decline - until 1929).

4 cycle - from 1929-33 (perhaps until the end of the 1930s) to 1973-75. (perhaps before 1981); the highest turning point occurs in the early 1950s.

5 cycle - from 1973-75 to (forecast) 2010-15; the highest turning point occurs in the mid-1990s.

So far, no single explanation for this dependence has been found, it is not clear why, despite the noticeable change in the economy as it develops, the rhythm of the Kondratiev cycles practically does not change (slightly shrinking), although the economic indicators involved in the oscillatory movements change. For example, in the 19th century, marked mainly by deflationary currents (the gold standard after all), waves manifested themselves in the price level, and during the Great Depression - in the inflation rate ( we will dwell on the versions in more detail in chapter 4).

In any case, if we consider only the predicted cycles, we see that the theory is correct. If we talk specifically about each of the phases of the cycle, it turns out that they are very schematic and indicative of the events of the current crisis taking place before our eyes.

Phase One - Growth . Often begins with a war or other reason for a sharp increase in government spending. The war has clear-cut winners who are experiencing growth in demand, production, expansion of credit. There is also an increase in inflation and nominal interest rates. Inventions made in the phase of decline and depression are massively introduced. Young industries are actively developing. There are few fundamentally new inventions. Production is developing extensively, at the expense of new markets. Competition is encouraged. International trade is growing. Loans are liquid, loan supply exceeds demand, real interest rates negative because inflation is higher than nominal rates. Financial situation stable. Recessions are few and short. Economists, politicians and voters are focusing on issues of long-term economic growth.

Phase two - summit . Almost always a surge of military activity. Funding wars is difficult due to lack of resources. A sharp increase in prices, especially for energy, and interest rates, including real ones. There is a change in government policy - from supporting demand to stabilizing finances. High patent activity, but inventions are reduced to minor improvements - there are practically no technical breakthroughs. The complex of the fastest growing industries reaches the maximum penetration into the economy, monopolization begins in these industries ( doesn't remind you of anything?). softening of morals, the rise of liberalism and pacifism ( well, sometimes anti-globalism). The top of the wave does not mean the peak of economic prosperity, which occurs in the second half of the recovery phase. Strong inflation, on the contrary, leads to the stagnation of the economy, but unemployment is not too high. At the top of the wave, or during the first half of the decline phase, there is an increased tendency for currencies to fluctuate relative to each other ( because of the difference in inflation different countries Oh), exit of different countries from the regime of fixed exchange rates. overproduction of the means of production. The focus of public attention is international issues.

Decline phase . The situation is different for different waves, the picture in the future is rather conditional, but in the last two waves the scenario was just like that. The first half of the decline phase - after overcoming the consequences of the last war and high inflation, an economic recovery begins. Inflation and nominal rates are falling, real rates are high, but they are also falling, which is what causes the economic recovery. Economic growth is intensive, due to cost reduction. Further deregulation financial markets. The growth of the movement of speculative capital, investments in real production are less than portfolio ones ( you know how overpriced the NASDAQ was, then the commodity market with mortgages and artificial investment instruments- derivatives). Public Focus on Issues tax policy. The rise of conservatism rise to power n eo conservatives led by u deologue dick o m chain u ). Further monopolization ( wave of major corporate mergers ).

Second part of the descent phase (what we all witnessed). Speculative bubbles are bursting first high-tech, then raw materials, mortgage). The transition of a significant part of loans to the category of bad debt ( Feni May and Freddie Mac). The polarization of society ( alleged class conflicts in the US as an illustration). Decrease in demand, transition to depression. Strengthening protectionism and nationalism. The erection of customs barriers (may not be in the form of duties, but in the form, for example, of restrictions on the quality of imported products). Strengthening the regulation of financial markets. Falling prices (where there is high competition) and/or production (where the industry is monopolized). Further reduction of nominal interest rates. Loss of public interest in politics in favor of the economy. According to Kondratiev, downward phases have a particularly depressing effect on Agriculture; low commodity prices during a recession boost the relative value of gold, which encourages more gold production, gold accumulation helps the economy out of a protracted crisis. Obviously, we are just in the second phase of decline, turning into a phase of depression.

Depression phase . Low inflation, almost zero interest rates, but no one wants to give or take a loan. Very low demand. Overproduction in obsolete sectors of the economy. In the decline phase of the Kondratieff wave and at the bottom of the depression phase, important inventions are made (not only technical, but also in the field of management), which will be introduced at the beginning of the growth phase and create new industries, a new technological order. The new way of life, in addition to changes in industry, usually involves a new paradigm in education, the new kind energy, transport, new way connections. Gradual reduction and leveling of the mass of bad debt, bankruptcy of obsolete sectors of the economy, release of resources, high unemployment.

Analyzing the current situation, one can come to the conclusion that the main tendencies of Kondratieff waves are preserved. Therefore, the possibility of even a long-term forecast remains high, despite attempts to influence regulatory organizations (IMF, UN, etc.) and the strengthening of the role of states. The forecast for the next few years can be formulated as follows: the preservation and development of the current situation. Decrease in stock activity; bankruptcy of a number large companies; development of new technologies, the active introduction of which will take place after 2015 (most likely in the field of genetics and medicine); the advantage will be given to small companies that can quickly rebuild under the influence of market conditions. Then compare and decide for yourself. Remember, however, that economic trends similar to Marxism - right, but not a dogma.

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