* this work is not a scientific work, is not a final qualifying work and is the result of processing, structuring and formatting collected information intended for use as a source of material for independent preparation of educational work.

Introduction.

1. Brief biography of N.D. Kondratiev.

2. N.D. Kondratiev and his research.

3. Observations and conclusions of N.D. Kondratiev.

4. N.D. Kondratiev and his theory of long waves.

5. The merit of Kondratiev and modern meaning his theories of “long waves” in economics.

Conclusion.

Bibliography.

Introduction.

Many economists deny cyclicality as an economic pattern. However, life triumphs, and cyclicality attracts the attention of the most inquisitive researchers.

Heavy economic crisis, which ended the period of “war communism,” was also the first example of the oscillatory, uneven development of the Soviet economy. However, the very fact of the possibility of a crisis in the Soviet economic system led to the fact that scientists began to study not only the problems of uneven development of the economy in general and the country’s economy in particular, but also the contradictions that arise and the specific mechanism for resolving them, the role of the market and the possibilities of management.

It would not be an exaggeration to say that a special place in the work of the theory of cyclicity belongs to Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev. His achievements in this field are recognized by the fact that many foreign scientists name long waves after him. A graduate of the Faculty of Law of St. Petersburg University, Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev, back in the twenties, opened a wide discussion on the problems of long waves. His report “ Large cycles conjuncture”, made by him at a meeting of the academic council of the Institute of Economics in 1928.

1. Brief biography of N.D. Kondratiev.

Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev was born in 1892 into a peasant family.

He graduated from the Faculty of Law of St. Petersburg University (1915), where his teachers were M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky, A.S. Lappo-Danilevsky, M.M. Kovalevsky, L.I. Petrazhitsky, and left at the university to prepare for a professorship in the department political economy and statistics.

In 1917, after the February Revolution, N. D. Kondratiev participated in the preparation of agrarian reform and for a short time was Deputy Minister of Food in the government of A. F. Kerensky.

In 1918 he taught at the Moscow City Shanyavsky University, in 1919-1920 - at the Cooperative Institute, and from 1920 - professor at the Timiryazev Agricultural Academy. In 1920-1928 - director of the Market Research Institute, a research organization on the problems of studying the economic situation in the USSR and other countries, and the methodology of planning the Soviet economy.

N.D. Kondratiev participated in the work on drawing up the first 5-year plan. He believed that plans should be predominantly qualitative rather than quantitative, based on rigorous scientific research and respect for proportionality. He was strongly opposed to forced industrialization by siphoning funds from Agriculture. In 1920 he was arrested, but given amnesty. In 1922 he was accused of assisting the Social Revolutionaries and was under arrest; was on the list for deportation from the country along with future passengers of the “philosophical ship”, but thanks to the petition of the Bolshevik P.A. Bogdanov was left. In 1924, he was on a scientific trip to the USA, where he received an invitation from his youth friend P.A. Sorokin to teach at the University of Minnesota and stay abroad, but he refused.

In 1930, N. D. Kondratyev was arrested and sentenced to long term on trumped-up charges of creating and leading an imaginary “peasant labor party” that allegedly fought against collectivization in the USSR. In 1938 he was convicted again and executed.

N.D. Kondratiev was completely rehabilitated (“for lack of corpus delicti”) only almost half a century later - in 1987, and the first book of his works came to the current generation of economists only in 1989.

2. N.D. Kondratiev and his research.

Among those few Russian scientists who managed to take an honorable place in the gallery of great economists is the name of Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev.

Due to his peasant origin, Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev quickly became involved in the circle of economic and political problems of agrarian reform, which became one of the main slogans of the February Revolution of 1917. And in October he was appointed Deputy Minister of Food in the Provisional Government of Russia.

Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratyev did not immediately accept the ideas of Bolshevism and only in 1919 he decided to cooperate with the new authorities. His further path is closely intertwined with the activities of A.V. Chayanov.

However, unlike the latter, Kondratiev is not concerned with the organizational and production problems of peasant farms and cooperation, but with an analysis of the economic situation in which rural producers have to operate.

These studies quickly brought Nikolai Kondratiev to the problem of long-term trends in economic development. Having processed, using special mathematical methods, data on changes in a number of the most important indicators of the state of the economy of England, France, Germany and the USA from the end of the 18th century to the beginning of the 20th century, Kondratiev discovered interesting patterns. Having analyzed them, he formulated the theory of “long waves” of the development of a market economy, which made his name famous.

This theory proved that countries with market economies in their development regularly go through stages of economic boom and bust, forming standard cycles that repeat every 40 to 60 years. Thus, for the first time in the world economic science Kondratiev was able to prove that time is independent and important economic category, which must be taken into account when regulating the economy of any country.

Such large cycles, according to the Russian scientist, are born after or together with serious innovations in economic life society (the introduction of major inventions and discoveries of scientists, the emergence of new groups of countries on the world market, etc.). Moreover, the rise of the wave is usually accompanied by a particularly large number of wars and all kinds of political upheavals, including revolutions. The real material basis of “long waves” is humanity’s radical renewal of those types of production structures and equipment that have especially long service lives (railroads, bridges, canals, dams, etc.).

These findings aroused great interest all over the world: major scientists, including Keynes, Schumpeter and others, immediately praised the work of Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev. A different fate awaited the theory of “long waves” and its author in Russia itself.

The conviction that the economy develops according to objective laws, born of long research, played a fatal role in the fate of Nikolai Kondratiev.

His views and arguments contradicted the theory of the “party approach to economic planning”, which, under the supervision of Stalin, became dominant in the USSR. Just like A.V. Chayanov, Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratyev did not fit into the plans for agricultural transformation.

3. Observations and conclusions of N.D. Kondratiev.

At the beginning of the 20s, Kondratiev launched a wide discussion on the issue of long-term fluctuations under capitalism. At that time, hopes were still very strong for a quick revolution in the advanced capitalist countries, and therefore the question of the future of capitalism, the possibility of its new rise, its achievement of a higher stage of development was extremely relevant.

The discussion began with the work “The World Economy and Its Conjunctures During and After the War,” published in 1922, in which Kondratiev suggested the existence of long waves in the development of capitalism. Despite the negative reaction of the majority of Soviet scientists to this publication, N. D. Kondratiev continued to consistently defend his position in the following works:

. "Controversial issues of the world economy and crisis (answer to our critics)" - 1923

. "Great Cycles of Conjuncture" - 1925

. "On the question of large cycles of market conditions" - 1926

. "Large cycles of economic conditions: Reports and their discussion at the Institute of Economics" (together with Oparin D.I.) - 1928

Kondratieff's research and conclusions were based on empirical analysis of a large number of economic indicators different countries over fairly long periods of time, covering 100-150 years.

N. D. Kondratyev analyzed the dynamics of changes in the following indicators from the end of the 18th century to the beginning of the 20th century:

A) in England: prices, interest on capital, wages agricultural and textile workers, foreign trade, coal, iron, lead production.

B) for France: prices, interest on capital, foreign trade, coal consumption, oat sown area, French Bank portfolio, deposits in savings banks, consumption of cotton, coffee, sugar.

B) in Germany: coal and steel production.

D) in the USA: prices, production of coal, iron and steel, number of spindles in the cotton industry, cotton acreage.

D) world production of coal and iron.

Production and consumption indicators are not general, but per capita.

Using the least squares method, (mostly quadratic) trends were extracted from the series, and then the resulting residuals were averaged using a nine-year moving average. Averaging made it possible to smooth out fluctuations that occur more often than once every nine years. Cycle length was assessed as the distance between adjacent peaks or troughs.

Of course, this mathematical research methodology used by Kondratiev was not without its shortcomings and was subject to fair criticism from his opponents, but all objections concerned only the exact periodization of cycles, and not their existence. N.D. Kondratiev understood the need for a probabilistic approach when studying statistical series of economic indicators. In his article “Large Cycles of Conjuncture,” he wrote that the existence of such cycles cannot be considered proven, but the probability of their existence is high. None of the available methods of mathematical statistics can confirm with a sufficient degree of probability the presence of 50-year cycles in the interval 100 - 150 years, i.e. based on information containing a maximum of 2-3 fluctuations.

However, objecting to the statements of critics that it is impossible to talk about “correctness,” that is, about the periodicity of large cycles, since their duration ranges from 45 to 60 years, Kondratiev rightly objected that large cycles from a probabilistic point of view are no less “correct” than traditional cyclical crises. Since the length of a traditional cyclical crisis varies from 7 to 11 years, its deviation from the average is more than 40%, and such a deviation from the average for a large wave, the duration of which varies from 45 to 6O years, is less than 3O%.

Since no mathematical apparatus for time series analysis can confirm or refute the existence of long cycles with sufficient probability, Kondratiev sought Additional information, trying to find properties and phenomena common to the corresponding phases of the long cycles he discovered. By the beginning of the 20s, world capitalism experienced, according to Kondratiev’s calculations, two and a half long waves, 48 ​​- 55 years long. On the vast majority of curves, these cycles are clearly visible without any mathematical processing. The periods of fluctuations and the main (upper and lower) points of the dependence curves of different indicators coincide (±3 years).

Throughout the entire period under study, Kondratiev also made 4 important observations regarding the nature of these cycles - “4 empirical correctnesses”. Two of them relate to the increasing phases, one to the decreasing stage, and another pattern appears at each of the phases of the cycle.

1) At the origins of the upward phase or at its very beginning, a profound change occurs in the entire life of capitalist society. These changes are preceded by significant scientific and technical inventions and innovations. In the upward phase of the first wave, that is, at the end of the 18th century, these were: the development of the textile industry and the production of cast iron, which changed the economic and social conditions society. Kondratiev associates growth in the second wave, that is, in the middle of the 19th century, with construction railways, which made it possible to develop new territories and transform agriculture. The upward phase of the third wave at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th centuries, in his opinion, was caused by the widespread introduction of electricity, radio and telephone. Kondratiev saw prospects for a new rise in the automotive industry.

2) The periods of the upward wave of each major cycle account for the greatest number of social upheavals (wars and revolutions).

Here is a list of the most important events.

I upward wave: The Great French Revolution, the Napoleonic Wars, the Russian war with Turkey, the American War of Independence.

I downward wave: the French Revolution of 1830, the Chartist movement in England.

II upward wave: revolutions of 1848-1849. in Europe (France, Hungary, Germany), Crimean War 1856, Sepoy Rebellion in India 1867-1869, American Civil War 1861-1865, Wars of German Unification 1865-1871, French Revolution 1871 ..

II downward wave: the war between Russia and Turkey 1877-1878.

III upward wave: Anglo-Boer War 1899-1902, Russo-Japanese War 1904, first World War, the revolutions of 1905 and 1917 and the Russian Civil War.

It is clearly seen that the social upheavals of upward waves far exceed those of downward waves, both in the number of events and (more importantly) in the number of victims and destruction.

3) Downward phases have a particularly depressing effect on agriculture. Low commodity prices during a recession contribute to an increase in the relative value of gold, which encourages an increase in its production. The accumulation of gold helps the economy recover from a protracted crisis.

4) Periodic crises (7-11 year cycle) are, as it were, strung together on the corresponding phases of a long wave and change their dynamics depending on it - during periods of long upswing, more time is spent on “prosperity”, and during periods of long downturn, crisis years become more frequent.

4. N.D. Kondratiev and his theory of long waves.

Currently, in world economic science, the name of the famous Soviet economist N.D. Kondratiev is associated with such concepts as “Kondratiev’s long waves” or “Kondratiev’s large cycles of market conditions.” N.D. Kondratyev was born in 1892 into a peasant family. After graduating from the Faculty of Law of St. Petersburg University, from 1915 he studied economic problems Agriculture. In 1917, after the February Revolution, N.D. Kondratiev participated in the preparation of agrarian reform and for a short time was Deputy Minister of Food in the government of A.F. Kerensky. After the revolution, he worked for several years at the Agricultural Academy in Moscow, where he was a professor.

In 1920 - 1927 he was entrusted with creating and heading the Institute of Market Studies, of which he was director until 1928. N.D. Kondratiev participated in the work on drawing up the first 5-year plan. He believed that plans should be predominantly qualitative rather than quantitative, based on rigorous scientific research and respect for proportionality. He was strongly opposed to forced industrialization by siphoning funds from agriculture. In 1930, N.D. Kondratiev was arrested and sentenced to a long term on trumped-up charges of creating and leading an imaginary “labour peasant party” that allegedly fought against collectivization in the USSR. In 1938, N.D. Kondratiev died in prison. Later he was completely rehabilitated. In the early 1920s, Kondratiev launched a broad discussion on the issue of long-term fluctuations under capitalism. At that time, hopes were still very strong for a quick revolution in the advanced capitalist countries, and therefore the question of the future of capitalism, the possibility of its new rise, its achievement of a higher stage of development was extremely relevant. The discussion began with the work “The World Economy and Its Conjunctures During and After the War,” published in 1922, in which Kondratiev suggested the existence of long waves in the development of capitalism.

5. The merit of Kondratiev and the modern significance of his theory of “long waves” in economics.

Many prominent economists have been developing and creating their concepts of “long Kondratiev cycles” for half a century. Why exactly Kondratiev? The answer to this question can be justified by the following considerations:

1. The materials that appeared in the press on long-term fluctuations before Kondratieff were sporadic and were only of the nature of guesswork. Kondratiev considered this issue in more detail. In addition, his works have been translated into English, German, and French.

2. Kondratiev’s greatest scientific merit is that he attempted to build a closed socio-economic system that generated these long-term fluctuations within itself. In the works of Kondratiev’s predecessors, there are always factors that play the role of an external push in the formation of oscillations. Kondratiev reveals the internal mechanism of both recessions and ascents. It was this second circumstance that attracted Western economists at a time when the general economic situation, especially in the 30s, seemed hopeless. That is, the Kondratieff concept gave hope for a way out of the great crisis.

3. The undoubted contribution of N. D. Kondratiev to modern econometric science was his introduction of probabilistic laws into the analysis of economic processes.

4. Kondratiev was one of the first to raise the question of the existence of equilibria in the economy.

5. Kondratiev’s combination was also attractive economic analysis with sociological: before Kondratiev, researchers of long-term fluctuations paid more attention to the study of material factors, and Kondratiev considered social and political aspects - wars, coups. Interestingly, he was the first to introduce a distinction between “intermediate wars”, which play the role of stimulant of the economy at the beginning of the recovery phase, and “final wars” and coups at the end of the recovery, resolving the contradictions that accumulated during the recovery period.

6. Abroad, the name of N. D. Kondratiev was never forgotten, and the “Kondratiev waves” became the impetus for the birth of a whole trend in modern economic science. It is still developing rapidly today, as the sharply accelerated scientific and technical progress It seems that the “long waves” have begun to compress, and humanity apparently needs to prepare for serious fluctuations in economic development.

Theoretical concepts of long waves are important because they provide the necessary basis for assessing the state of the economy and predicting its future state.

Conclusion.

Few people in Russia, except specialists, know the name of N. Kondratiev among foreign scientists dealing with the problems of cyclical development of the world economy, and it speaks volumes. He developed the theory of dynamic economic development back in the 20s. His works remain popular and are still published.

The good name of the scientist in his homeland was returned to N. Kondratiev only in 1987 after the rehabilitation of agricultural scientists repressed in the 30s, including A. Chayanov. The only fault of the “enemies of the people” was that they lived the life of the country and were looking for acceptable forms and methods of reviving the national economy. In contrast to Stalin's collectivization, which led the country to famine, they developed their own approaches to organizing peasant farms and proved the interdependent connections between agriculture and industry.

According to N. Kondratiev’s theory of large cycles of economic conditions, “wars and revolutions arise on the basis of real, and above all economic, conditions... on the basis of an increase in the pace and tension of economic life, an intensification of the economic struggle for markets and raw materials... Social upheavals arise it is easiest precisely during the period of rapid onslaught of new economic forces" (1926). However, social unsettlement and the desire to quickly overcome it most often push people onto a dead-end path.

N. Kondratiev was not only a witness to the revolutions of 1917. He was a member of the last Provisional Government as a comrade minister of food. He was born into a large peasant family. Was it a coincidence that his centenary coincided with the beginning of the collapse of our economy? Since his youth, Nikolai has been a supporter of radical peasant democracy. The revolution finally opened up the opportunity to begin the revival of the country, previously held back by serfdom and autocracy. But what was 1917 like? N. Kondratiev himself gave an objective picture of those events. He emphasizes that this was a deep tragedy for Russian democracy. “The essence of this tragedy lies in the discrepancy between the level of culture of our democracy and the complexity of world economic life, in the discrepancy between aspirations and performances, on the one hand, and objective possibilities, conditions of reality, on the other.”

Bibliography:

1. Igor Lipsits “Economy without secrets”, M., 1993.

2. Kondratiev N. D. “Problems of economic dynamics”, M., 1989.

3. From the history of economic thought //Economy, 7/1990.

4. Menshikov S.M., Klimenko L.A. Long waves in economics / M: International Relations - 1989.

Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev (March 4 (16), 1892, Galuevskaya, Kineshma district, Kostroma province - September 17, 1938, Kommunarka training ground, Moscow region, USSR) - Russian and Soviet economist. Founder of the theory of economic cycles, known as “Kondratieff Cycles”. Theoretically substantiated the “new economic policy” in the USSR. Arrested by the NKVD in 1930 on false charges. On September 17, 1938 he was shot. In 1987 he was rehabilitated.

Born on March 4 (16), 1892 in the village of Galuevskaya, Kineshma district, Kostroma province (now in the Vichuga district of the Ivanovo region, 5 km from the city of Vichuga). N.D. himself According to the new style, Kondratiev considered his birthday to be March 17 (in the extract from the register of births, instead of 12, 13 days were added to the date of birth after the calendar change). This is enshrined in the scientist’s autobiography, dated April 28, 1924, and in a letter to his wife dated March 17, 1933.

Since 1905 - Social Revolutionary. He studied at a parochial school, a teacher's school, a gardening school, in 1911 he graduated (as an external student) from the Kostroma gymnasium and in the same year he entered the law faculty of St. Petersburg University; After graduating from university, he worked at the department of political economy and statistics.

He was a comrade of the Minister of Food in the last composition of the Provisional Government of Alexander Kerensky. Since 1918, he taught in Moscow at the Cooperative Institute and the Timiryazevskaya (until 1923 - Petrovskaya) Agricultural Academy. Founder and director of the Institute of Market Studies (1920-1928). In August 1920, he was involved in the case of the Union for the Revival of Russia, was arrested, but a month later was released thanks to the efforts of I. A. Teodorovich and A. V. Chayanov.

In 1920-1923 - in the People's Commissariat of Agriculture, head of the department of agricultural economics and policy and “scientific specialist”. Worked in the agricultural section of the USSR State Planning Committee

On April 19, 1928, he was removed from office; in 1930 he was arrested in the “case of the Labor Peasant Party”; on January 26, 1932, the OGPU Collegium sentenced him to 8 years in prison. He was kept in the Suzdal political isolation ward.

Military Collegium Supreme Court On September 17, 1938, the USSR was sentenced to death and executed on the same day. Shot and buried at Kommunarka (Moscow region).
Rehabilitated simultaneously with A.V. Chayanov in 1987.

Scientific achievements

According to the now classical Kondratieff theory of large cycles:

...wars and revolutions arise on the basis of real, and above all economic conditions... on the basis of an increase in the pace and tension of the economic life situation, aggravation economic competition for markets and raw materials... Social upheavals arise most easily precisely during the period of rapid onslaught of new economic forces .

Place of Birth

• Galuevskaya[d], Kineshma district, Kostroma province, Russian empire

A place of death

• Execution range "Kommunarka", Leninsky district, Moscow region, RSFSR, USSR

A country

• Russian empire
• Russian republic
• RSFSR
• USSR

Place of work

• Russian University of Cooperation
• Moscow City People's University
• Petrovskaya Agricultural Academy
• Moscow Narodny Bank (Moscow)
• Pomgol
• People's Commissariat of Agriculture of the USSR
• State Planning Committee of the USSR

Alma mater

Biography

Born on March 4 (16), 1892 in a large peasant family in the village of Galuevskaya, Kineshma district, Kostroma province (now in the Vichuga district of the Ivanovo region, 5 km from the city of Vichuga). N.D. Kondratiev himself, according to the new style, considered his birthday to be March 17 (in the extract from the metric book, instead of 12, 13 days were added to the date of birth after the calendar change). This is enshrined in the scientist’s autobiography, dated April 28, 1924, and in a letter to his wife dated March 17, 1933.

Before 1917

In 1908 he left for St. Petersburg and began studying at the Chernyaevsky general education courses. In the capital, he has been living in the same room with P. Sorokin for almost ten years. In 1909 he entered private school. In 1911, he received his matriculation certificate as an external student at the 1st Kostroma Gymnasium and in the same year he entered the Faculty of Law of St. Petersburg University. After graduating from the university in November 1915, according to the proposal of prof. I. I. Chistyakov, Faculty of Law made a petition to leave Kondratiev at the university. Left to prepare for a professorship at the Department of Political Economy and Statistics.

During his studies and after graduation, Kondratiev was active in scientific and literary activities. He was the personal secretary of the famous scientist Professor M. M. Kovalevsky, participated in the activities of the scientific circles of L. I. Petrazhitsky and M. I. Tugan-Baranovsky, collaborated with the magazines “Testaments”, “Bulletin of Europe”, “Life for Everyone”, He gave popular lectures, including in the provinces, and taught agronomic and cooperative courses. In 1915, he published the first monograph “Development of the economy of the Kineshma zemstvo of the Kostroma province: socio-economic and financial essay” (446 pp.).

All this time, Kondratiev continued to be an activist in the Socialist Revolutionary Party; he was under secret surveillance, in 1913 he was arrested and spent a month in prison under investigation.

In 1916, while continuing his scientific activities at the university, he began working as the head of the statistical and economic department of the Zemstvo Union of Petrograd. This period dates back to the shift of his interests to agrarian problems.

During the revolutionary period

After the October Revolution, Kondratiev continued his political activities as an activist of the Socialist Revolutionary Party. In November 1917, he was elected as a deputy of the All-Russian Constituent Assembly from the Kostroma province, on the list of the Socialist Revolutionary Party. In March 1918, he became a member of the "Union for the Revival of Russia", which united the Socialist Revolutionaries, People's Socialists and Cadets to fight the Bolsheviks. In 1919, after the Bolsheviks completely ousted the Socialist Revolutionaries from all government bodies, Kondratiev left the party and moved on to exclusively scientific activities. In August 1920, he was involved in the case of the Union for the Revival of Russia, was arrested, but a month later was released thanks to the efforts of I. A. Teodorovich and A. V. Chayanov.

In 1918, Kondratiev moved to Moscow, from 1918 he taught at Shanyavsky University and the Petrovsky Agricultural Academy, and worked at the Moscow People's Bank. Member Pomgol [ ] .

Scientist

Kondratiev was one of the founders and first director (1920-1928). In 1920-1923 - in the People's Commissariat of Agriculture, head of the department of agricultural economics and policy and “scientific specialist”. He worked in the agricultural section of the USSR State Planning Committee. Under his leadership, a long-term plan for the development of agriculture and forestry in the RSFSR for 1923-1928 was developed (Kondratiev's agricultural five-year plan), which combined planned and market principles.

We must dot the i’s, raise the question of “the development of Russian capitalist enterprises,” we must welcome Russian capitalism, since we welcome the entry of foreign capitalism.

During the economic discussions of the 1920s, Kondratiev and his colleagues in the People's Commissariat for Agriculture and the Market Research Institute emphasized commodity and market mechanisms, seeing in the plan as accurate a forecast as possible for the future movement of the national economy.

Arrested on August 10, 1922 and included in the list of persons subject to deportation from Russia. Deputy People's Commissar of Agriculture V. Osinsky wrote a petition to the Politburo of the Central Committee of the RCP (b) with a request to release Kondratiev from deportation, in which he wrote that “the head of an entire department was arrested without any warning to the commissariat, due to which a number of statistical work and the development of a production plan were disrupted Commissariat". On August 31, 1922, Kondratiev was excluded from the number of deportees.

In 1924, to study the organization of agricultural production, he made a scientific trip to the USA, Great Britain, Canada, Germany, accompanied by his wife (there was a year left before the birth of their daughter). During a meeting in the United States, Pitirim Sorokin, exiled from Russia, invited his friend to stay in America, but Kondratiev refused.

The positions of Chayanov and Kondratiev were sharply criticized by the Bolshevik leadership. G. E. Zinoviev calls the concept of agricultural development “the manifesto of the kulak party.” After J.V. Stalin’s speech at the conference of Marxist agrarians, the terms “Chayanovism” and “Kondratievism” became symbols of sabotage. On April 19, 1928, he was removed from office.

In 1927, he published “Critical Notes on the Plan for the Development of the National Economy,” where he noted the general imbalance of the first five-year plan for the development of the national economy of the USSR and predicted a food shortage by the end of the first five-year plan

Repression and rehabilitation

On January 26, 1932, the OGPU Collegium sentenced him to 8 years in prison. He was held in the Suzdal political isolation ward.

In May 1963, he was rehabilitated simultaneously with L.N. Yurovsky, but then not a word was published about this rehabilitation in the USSR, and the defamation of N.D. Kondratiev’s works by official Soviet economic science continued until 1987.

He was rehabilitated again simultaneously with A.V. Chayanov on July 16, 1987.

Heritage

According to the now classical Kondratiev theory of large cycles,

Family

Publications

• Kondratyev N. D. World economy and its conditions during and after the war. - Vologda: Regional branch of the State Publishing House, 1922.
• Kondratiev N. D., Oparin D. I. Large economic cycles: Reports and their discussion at the Institute of Economics. - 1st ed. - M., 1928. - 287 p.
• Kondratyev N. D. Problems of economic dynamics. - M.: Economics, 1989. - 526 p. ISBN 5-282-00700-2
• Kondratyev N. D. The grain market and its regulation during war and revolution. - M.: Nauka, 1991. - 487 p. - 4,600 copies. - ISBN 5-02-012001-4.
• Kondratyev N. D. Basic problems of economic statics and dynamics: Preliminary sketch. - 1st ed. - M.: Nauka, 1991. - 567 p. - (Sociological heritage). - 3,500 copies. - ISBN 5-02-013438-4.
• Kondratyev N. D. Selected works. - M.: Economics, 1993. - 543 p. ISBN 5-282-01499-8
• Kondratyev N. D. Special opinion. - M.: Nauka, 1993. - 1374 p. ISBN 5-02-012125-8
• Kondratyev N. D. Large cycles of conjuncture and the theory of foresight / Comp. Yu. V. Yakovets. - M.: Economics, 2002. - 768 p. - 5,000 copies. - ISBN 5-282-02181-1.
• Kondratyev N. D. Suzdal letters. -

Until 1928, several works by Kondratiev were published one after another, containing fundamentally new ideas of economic planning and views on the state of world markets. During Kondratiev's lifetime, all of his significant articles were translated and published abroad. He was a member economic societies USA and Great Britain, was personally acquainted or by correspondence with the largest economists of his time.

In his monographs “The grain market and its regulation during war and revolution” (1922) and “Fundamentals of a long-term plan for the development of agriculture and forestry” (1925) the “SR” idea was pursued that for Russia the “leading link” in planning is agriculture and that a balance between the agricultural and industrial sectors is necessary. Kondratiev’s main achievement and contribution to world science was his theory of cycles in the economic, social and cultural development of countries. He published its first sketches back in 1922 and then continued to develop it.

Kondratiev's conclusions were based on an analysis of the dynamics of the main parameters of the economy of the USA, Germany, England, and France over the past 100-150 years. Employees of the Market Research Institute studied price indices, quotes of government debt securities, wage levels, foreign trade turnover, coal mining, gold mining, iron production, etc.

Kondratiev was the first to notice that a number of indicators change with cyclical regularity, and phases of growth and decline alternate. The oscillation period is 50 years with an error of up to 10 years. Consequently, the “great cycle of conjuncture” lasts from 40 to 60 years. Joseph Schumpeter subsequently called them “Kondratieff cycles.”

« ...Wars and revolutions arise on the basis of real, and above all economic conditions... on the basis of an increase in the pace and tension of economic life, intensification of economic competition for markets and raw materials... Social upheavals arise most easily precisely during the period of rapid onslaught of new economic forces.”

1924 N.D. Kondratiev with his wife E.D. Kondratieva during his business trip to the USA

In 1924, Kondratiev and his wife went on a year-long scientific trip to the USA, Canada, England and Germany - with instructions to find out ways to strengthen the economic position of the USSR. In the USA they met Pitirim Sorokin, who was expelled from Russia in 1922. Sorokin invited Kondratiev to stay in the USA, but Kondratiev was captured by the prospects that opened up for him in his homeland.

Upon returning home, he actively participated in the development of the first long-term plan for agricultural development. During the “Kondratiev Five-Year Plan” (1924-1928), the Russian village was able to recover after the Civil War.

Commemorative medal in honor of Nikolai Kondratiev

Kondratiev advocated the proportional development of industry and agriculture and against taxes and fees that were unaffordable for peasants for the construction of factories and factories. This caused rejection by the ideologists of industrialization: Zinoviev called his concept a “manifesto of the kulak party”; at the instigation of Stalin, the term “Kondratievism” became a symbol of sabotage.

In 1928, the Market Research Institute under the Narkomfin was closed, and in 1930 Nikolai Kondratiev was arrested, accused of sabotage in agriculture, “bringing through bourgeois planning methods” and belonging to the mythical “Labor Peasant Party”. Chayanov could no longer help him out, since he himself was arrested on the same charges. In August 1930, Stalin wrote to Molotov: “Vyacheslav! I think that the investigation into the case of Kondratyev, Groman, Sadyrin should be conducted with all thoroughness, without rushing. This matter is very important... Kondratiev, Groman and a couple of scoundrels must definitely be shot.”

While awaiting trial in Butyrka prison, Kondratiev wrote the work “Main Problems of Economic Statics and Dynamics” (published only in 1991). At a closed trial in 1932, Kondratyev was sentenced to 8 years and sent to a political prison. There the scientist continued to work on his theory of large cycles and improved its mathematical apparatus.

The scientist had a poetic gift: in prison, Kondratyev wrote for his daughter a fairy tale in verse with drawings, “The Extraordinary Adventures of Shammi”:

“In the bliss of a warm, languid night

The soul is full of new strength:

There beyond the distance of the dark sea

A wonderful country awaits them.”

Nikolai Kondratyev with his daughter Elena

In prison, Kondratyev grew weaker, lost his sight and hearing, and had difficulty moving. Scientific work, which constituted the meaning of his life, ceased.

On September 17, 1938, the Military Collegium of the Supreme Court of the USSR sentenced Nikolai Kondratyev to capital punishment, and on the same day he was shot. He was only 46 years old. The ashes of the outstanding economist were buried in a common grave at the notorious “Kommunarka” - the NKVD execution range.

THEORIST-ECONOMIST N.D. KONDRATIEV

They move science forward, make history, and transform lives by obsessed, purposeful, high-minded intellectuals,
what N.D. Kondratiev was like. (Yu. Yakovets)

It almost always happens that major scientists make discoveries that, after many years, sometimes decades, turn into powerful factors influencing further development economic and social life. (A.V. Chayanov)

At the turn of the XX - XXI centuries. When analyzing the development of the world economy and the economy of a single country, the Russian economist-theorist N.D. Kondratiev is increasingly mentioned. This is explained by the fact that the scientist’s ideas about the wavy, cyclic economic development have not been removed from the agenda of scientific discussions about the present and future of the world community. Scientific forecasts expressed at meetings of economists and politicians taking place in various countries and centers of academic science directly relate to Russia, the scientist’s homeland. It is interesting in this regard to pay attention to the statement of the modern American sociologist E. Wallerstein, made at a political forum in Yaroslavl in 2009, in which he emphasized the importance of the ideas about the “long waves” of economic development of N.D. Kondratiev in relation to the assessment of the current economic situation in world. According to the views of this sociologist, modern world system“correlates with Kondratiev waves”, and the point of bifurcation (change) at the end of the wave can be characterized by huge consequences for the economy. This statement is not just a recognition of the ideas of the Russian scientist, but is also relevant for forecasts of the development of the world economic system. You should also pay attention to K. Polanyi’s rather interesting interpretation of the process of transformation of political and economic life in the world, conditioned by the development of the market system of the world economy. And although the author does not have references to long-wave oscillations, his interpretation is in agreement with N.D. Kondratiev’s theory of the cyclical development of the world-economy. Research by the Russian economist S. Glazyev on technological structures is also based on the theory of long-wave oscillations by N.D. Kondratiev.

March 2017 marked the 125th anniversary of the birth of Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev. The scientist’s name is associated with the Ivanovo region; he was born in the village of Galuevskaya, not far from Vichuga (in present-day Ivanovo region). His first scientific work, published in 1915, was devoted to an analysis of the economic life of the Kineshma zemstvo and was called “Development of the economy of the Kineshma zemstvo of the Kostroma province.” The aspiring scientist considered the zemstvo as social object and as a public institution, in connection with which he rightly pointed out that the practical activities of this governing body should be aimed at meeting the needs of the population, public requests and protection public interest. “The strength and weakness of the zemstvo depend on the social environment that stands behind the zemstvo institution,” wrote N. Kondratyev. “The zemstvo’s main task should be to help raise the culture of peasant farms that have left the community, as well as in every possible way to encourage the separated farms to get on solid farming soil.”

Subsequently, N.D. Kondratiev emerged as a major representative of domestic science, whose area of ​​interest included theoretical research in the field of economic cycles, world market conditions, agricultural economics and cooperation. He expressed interesting ideas in relation to collectivization and industrialization programs and in the field of national economic planning. N.D. Kondratyev also worked on applied economic problems at the Market Research Institute in the field of developing pricing methods taking into account many socio-political and economic factors. The works of N.D. Kondratiev related to the study of large cycles of economic conditions have received worldwide recognition and placed him in line with major scientists and economists of the 20th century.

The significance of this Russian man, the son of a peasant from a deep Russian province, lies in the fact that in the life of N.D. Kondratiev, the “Lomonosov spirit” of attraction to knowledge was expressed, as a result of mastering which he was able to rise to the highest level of world economic science. The name of this scientist determines the whole scientific direction- "Kondratieff waves" in economic dynamics.

The formation of N.D. Kondratiev’s worldview initially took place in the peasant family of his parents, in which ten children were raised. The work of the head of the family Dmitry Gavrilovich in peasant farm alternated with engraving work at the Razorenovs’ factory in Vichuga. Children got used to hard peasant labor early on, as N. Kondratiev himself later wrote about: “... in physical peasant labor, there is indeed a lot of healthy and beautiful things, ... I mowed through the wonderful summer dew in the meadows with the peasants.” The habit of work, acquired from childhood, developed in the young man independence and perseverance in achieving goals. As a student, he tried to help his parents in the summer months, and did not hesitate to work in the city, doing tutoring. In order not to be a burden to the family during his student years, he compressed his study schedule from five years to four years. Such desire and perseverance to study among the peasant youth testified to the healthy moral and physical principles instilled in the family.

Studying at a church school in the town of Khrenovo near Staraya Vichuga had a great influence on the expansion of Nikolai Kondratiev’s worldview. The environment in this educational institution, created by priest V. Bazaryaninov, helped seminary students become acquainted with the political processes taking place around them. During his studies, Nikolai Kondratyev met and became friends with Pitirim Sorokin; both of them carried this youthful feeling of friendship throughout their lives. Together they embarked on the thorny path of politics and joined the right-wing Socialist Revolutionary movement. The police drew attention to the political activities of these young men, both of them were in Kineshma prison, then their paths diverged for a number of years. But in 1908, having learned that Pitirim lived in St. Petersburg and entered the university, 16-year-old Nikolai went to a friend, settled with him and enrolled in general education courses to prepare for university. In 1911, N. Kondratiev was enrolled in the university. On the advice of his friend Pitirim Sorokin, he chose the Faculty of Law. Nikolai Kondratyev’s inquisitive mind and analytical abilities contributed to the young man’s active participation in seminars of leading university professors M. Kovalevsky, M. Tugan-Baranovsky, V. Svyatlovsky, A. Bukovetsky and others. His scientific interest clearly manifested itself in the field of political economy and statistics. Teachers-professors duly appreciated the young and inquisitive intellect of the student Kondratiev; the closest to him were Tugan-Baranovsky and Lappo-Danilevsky. Pitirim Sorokin introduced Nikolai to Professor M. Kovalevsky, who invited these talented young men to work at his department. It was a beautiful friendship between a famous scientist and young people from the Russian provinces who were starting their journey in science. M. Kovalevsky died in the arms of these young men in 1916. Pitirim and Nikolai carried the memory of their teacher throughout their lives.

In 1915, the first major monograph by Nikolai Kondratyev, “Development of the economy of the Kineshma zemstvo of the Kostroma province (socio-economic and financial essay),” was published, which was printed in the Kineshma printing house by the decision of the Kineshma district zemstvo. The work was supported by university professors, in the preface to it P. Migulin wrote the following words: “This work is of great scientific value: it provides an opportunity to get acquainted with the district zemstvo economy Central Russia". The book was also noticed by the metropolitan scientific press; it noted that the work of N.D. Kondratiev laid the foundations for the formation of a scientific library on socio-economic issues in the history of the zemstvo. The appeal to the history of the Kineshma zemstvo was facilitated by the fact that at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, in terms of its condition, it was characterized as the most enlightened of the zemstvos of Central Russia.Statistical data used by Kondratiev for 50 years showed an increase in educational and medical services on the territory of the zemstvo, the number of libraries, zemstvo schools, hospitals, obstetrics areas, and the improvement of veterinary affairs in farms. The work also traced the dynamics of changes in peasant farms as a result of the Stolypin reform measures to allocate farms to cuts and farms. The analysis of data on the Kineshma zemstvo indicated the great potential of local government in solving various socio-economic issues in a specific territory.

The young Nikolai Kondratyev showed his exceptionalness in the political field; at the age of 15 he joined the Right Socialist Revolutionary Party. In this political movement, he built himself from an ordinary peasant youth to a prominent leader of the Socialist Revolutionary movement in the Kostroma province. Kondratyev was a popular personality among various segments of the population of the province; he was known as an interesting lecturer in many districts of the province, in which he spoke at various meetings. Lectures on agronomic and cooperative courses characterized Kondratiev as a competent lawyer who provided legal assistance peasants and workers in their district. Kondratyev’s political activity was manifested in participation in strikes, for which he was repeatedly persecuted by the authorities and spent some time in prison in the city of Kineshma. By 1917, N. Kondratyev was already a prominent figure on the political horizon, as evidenced by the fact that he was recommended to the Constituent Assembly from the Kostroma province. During the same period of time, N. Kondratiev was actively involved in agrarian problems. In order to promote the solution of the land issue, he participates, along with other agricultural scientists, in the Main Land Committee and in the League of Agrarian Problems. His reports in Kostroma at the Congress of Peasant Deputies (May 7, 1917), the Congress of Socialist Revolutionaries in Petrograd (May 26, 1917), the Congress of the Kostroma Provincial Council of Peasant Deputies (June 30, 1917), and at the Commission on the Redistribution of the Land Fund were devoted to land issue, development of principles economic policy towards the peasants. These reports aroused keen interest and also wide discussion. Being the son of a peasant by birth, Kondratyev advocated a family-labor economy, a family-labor path to the development of agriculture. Knowing the problems of agriculture from the inside, he wrote: “The peasantry lives, first of all, on the land, and if it lives poorly and poorly, it means that the existing ones are bad.” land orders. They need to be changed." In the Provisional Government, N. Kondratyev worked in the Ministry of Food. He accepted the political coup in October 1917 negatively, because he believed that "... the violence of the Bolshevik government in Petrograd would lead to a disaster in supplying the army and the population." So this and it happened. Being in opposition to the new government, N. Kondratyev, among the “ten” employees of the Ministry of Food, was arrested. At the request of the same group, Lenin was forced to meet with them and listen to the demands of the ministry workers. After this, the “ten” were transferred to " Crosses." His stay in this prison was short-lived. N. Kondratiev was left with a bitter aftertaste from the situation created in the country. An interesting fact in this regard was that it calmed the young Kondratiev. The majority of voters from the Kostroma province, despite the coup of October 25, 1917, voted for the agrarian program of the Socialist Revolutionaries, the compiler of which was Kondratiev, among others. Somewhat later, Lenin made a confession: “The peasantry, opposed to us in November 1917, was conquered by us... We won because we accepted not our agrarian program, but the Socialist Revolutionary one" . This recognition of Lenin preserves evidence of the correctness of N. Kondratiev in his vision of solving peasant problems. N. Kondratiev left politics and the Right Socialist Revolutionary movement in 1919, but as we already know, the new government will not forgive him for this political past, and in the 20s he would be repeatedly arrested on various far-fetched pretexts, the last arrest was made in 1930 year.

The twenties for N. Kondratiev were a period of intense scientific creativity. His ideas about the labor peasant economy were developed in the theory of agricultural cooperation, in which he saw the rise of the country's productive forces, the agricultural sector and the peasant economy. Working in the Council of United Agricultural Cooperation (Selskosovet), he developed the idea of ​​cooperation in every possible way. In one of the articles of that period, he wrote: “Russia, more than ever, needs the development of national economic productive forces; agricultural cooperation is one of the most effective means of raising the productive forces of the peasant economy.” N. Kondratiev began teaching a course on the theory of cooperation at the Cooperative Institute. In September 1920, on the recommendation of A.V. Chayanov Kondratyev is elected professor of the Petrovsky Agricultural Academy (it should be noted that A. Chayanov had family roots in the Ivanovo region, his father was from the village of Bogdanikha, near Kokhma). A year later, N. Kondratyev was invited to the People's Commissariat of Agriculture of the RSFSR to the position of head of the Department of Agricultural Economics and Planning Work. This circumstance made it possible to expand the range of research on theoretical problems in the field of agriculture; the scientist began to study, in addition to the indicated theoretical issues, the problems of the world economy and Russia’s place in the world economy. In his opinion, Russia was to be reborn as a world power and become a major exporter of agricultural products.

In 1921, a young professor N.D. Kondratiev, as part of an expedition sent to survey the situation of peasant farms, also visited his native land. His notes contain interesting information about the economic life of our region. “The once noisy and busy streets of cities, including Kineshma, became depopulated, deserted, these seething “bourgeois nests” turned into poor cemeteries of boarded-up shops and stores, the death of genuine city life. The cities stood still, the factories became silent, the Volga froze and became depopulated "- this was our region after the Civil War, as a result of the political revolution of 1917. The information obtained during the expedition was useful for generalizations in the future. scientific work, as well as to intensify forces and capabilities in providing assistance to starving provinces.

In 1922, N.D. Kondratyev took an active part in drawing up a draft tax in kind, which became the basis for the relationship between city and village. The scientist accepted the new economic policy and tried to work hard to implement it. In connection with preparations for the Genoa Conference, N.D. Kondratiev was involved in working on materials for it. There is information that he was invited to participate as an expert in the delegation to the conference. However, heavy workload did not allow this plan to be realized. In the same year, Kondratiev published the monograph “The World Economy and Its Conjunctures During and After the War.” In this scientific work, he first hypothesized the existence of half-century fluctuations, large cycles of market conditions.

In connection with the implementation of the new economic policy, commodity-money relations began to develop in the country, cooperation in rural and urban areas began to be allowed into the economy. private capital, foreign capital was attracted. According to Lenin, this policy had to be established, if not forever, then for a long time; it was necessary to learn how to manage the country’s economy. N.D. Kondratyev, having accepted this policy as an opportunity for the revival of Russia, again began to advocate the establishment of strong ties between the owner and the land, freedom and flexibility in land circulation and the choice of forms of agriculture. The economic thought of this period in the country was seething on the pages of the magazines “Economic Revival” and “The Economist”, in discussions about ways to build a new state. The articles by Yurovsky and Kondratiev caused wide discussions, their ideas were supported and angrily denied. Politicians, and often these were not professionals, people with a low level of education, in the frenzy of critics called economic publications “the center of White Guardism”, and the authors of the articles - “military spies” who should be “caught and sent abroad.” As a result of such assessments, arrests of people who believed in the new government were carried out on various far-fetched pretexts. The authorities also decided to expel from the country public figures, scientists, artists and writers who did not agree with the political course of the Bolsheviks. So, in 1922, 160 people were expelled from the country. N.D. Kondratiev was under house arrest at that time, the “philosophical ships” left without him, and his close friend P. Sorokin was forced to emigrate. House arrest Kondratiev was removed from office, and active work began as director of the Market Research Institute, in the statistics and pricing department of which, under the leadership of Kondratiev, methods for analyzing the dynamics of supply and demand, prices were developed, indices and indicators of the national economy were compiled, and consultations were provided for various government agencies. Within the walls of this institute, N.D. Kondratiev began to publish the “Economic Bulletin”, which was positively assessed in Europe and the USA; many opportunistic institutions around the world used methods for analyzing economic development. The institute staff took an active part in the implementation of the monetary reform of 1922-1924, in the registration of prices in the markets of different cities, including Moscow and Petrograd, in the public and private sectors of the economy, in the compilation of wholesale price indices, as well as gold prices. Various government agencies received information from the walls of this institute, including the Monetary Authority, Budget management, Tax Administration and Commission for the preparation of the Russian-German trade agreement. N. Kondratiev’s activities at the Market Research Institute were described in a secret description: “A talented organizer, a leader with great erudition, an author of scientific works, a specialist in market conditions, agriculture, and the market.” The institute’s activities were also assessed as follows: “stands at the level of the most qualified institutes in America and England.”

N. Kondratiev’s scientific work in 1923 was associated with the publication of the book “The World Grain Market and Prospects for Our Grain Exports,” as well as articles dedicated to his teacher M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky. In the same year, he developed a long-term plan for the People's Commissariat of Agriculture for 1923-1924, which was published in the article “Plan and Foresight.” It outlined the essence of the plan, which was “... to arouse the interest of the population itself, to awaken its initiative through the cooperation of the population,” and also justified the directions for its implementation: intensification of agriculture, rational extensive agricultural production in a number of historically economic regions of the country, increasing the marketability of peasant economy, industrialization of agriculture. The central link connecting all directions into a single chain should be cooperation, initiative and initiative of the population, accumulation material assets. At the same time, it was necessary to build a system of measures in the field of agricultural credit, market, prices, railway and customs tariffs. This plan was unofficially called “Kondratiev’s five-year plan.” Working on the plan and defending its provisions required a lot of moral and physical strength. The agricultural section of the State Planning Committee recognized in many respects the long-term plan for agriculture as “quite correct.” On the initiative of N. Kondratiev, the Central Agricultural Bank of the USSR was created in February 1924.
In mid-May 1924, N.D. Kondratiev was granted a foreign business trip to Germany, England and the USA in order to familiarize himself with the conditions and prospects of the world agricultural market. During the business trip, a number of American universities offered N. Kondratiev a chair, his friend P. Sorokin warned about possible reprisals against him, but the scientist found it necessary to return to the USSR, he understood that he could not leave his colleagues, he believed in the possibility of the revival of Russia. Of course, N.D. Kondratiev, of course, could not know what awaited him and his colleagues in the near future. After a scientific trip, the book “Questions of the Conjuncture” was published, in which the idea of ​​​​large cycles of economic conditions was outlined. A. Chayanov highly appreciated the publication of these books; he noted in this regard: “the appearance of these books indicates the entry of science into a new sphere of development.” In his article “Large cycles of economic conditions” N.D. Kondratiev processed a large amount of empirical factual and statistical material and put forward the idea of ​​long-term cyclical oscillatory phenomena in the economy. He processed material covering 140 years, which made it possible to identify cycles from 1780 to the early 20s of the 20th century. The undulating unevenness developed under the influence of various economic, socio-political, scientific, technological and organizational factors. Kondratiev put forward a hypothesis about the mechanism for overcoming the crisis situation of the capitalist economy through innovative processes in industrial production, taking into account the economic situation of supply and demand, regulating production and exchange. Following these books, the statistical collection "World Economy 1913-1925" was published under the editorship of N. Kondratiev. Both of these works were highly appreciated by many economists around the world. Thus, one of them, the head of the Russian sector of the US Department of Commerce, wrote: “... this is one of the most complete and valuable studies that we have ever seen, considering every phase of the national economy of important countries.” However, the assessments of this hypothesis and the statistical collection ran counter to the official ideology that dominated in the USSR about “dying capitalism.” In subsequent years, N. Kondratyev worked a lot on land legislation and rental relations in agriculture. Land legislation, in his opinion, should “give scope for the healthy initiative of agricultural producers.” This position of the scientist was branded as a “bourgeois program”; he himself was declared a “defender of the kulak”, “kulak ideologist”. The scientist drew attention to the political processes in the village in relation to the strong peasant, the use of repressive measures against him. Kondratiev warned against this erroneous policy, which could have negative consequences for the economy and the peasantry as a whole. He repeatedly criticized the search for kulaks "in the healthy, energetic layer of peasant farms, working with the highest labor productivity and the fastest accumulation." In land legislation, he also paid attention to collectivized forms economic activity, developed issues of organizing high-value agricultural enterprises in the grain zones of the country. "The development of collective farms under modern conditions will continue, ...increasing the growth rate of healthy collectivized agriculture requires higher technical base agriculture and raising the cultural level of the population," noted N. Kondratyev. The scientist continued to defend the position on the diversity of forms of ownership in the agricultural sector of the economy. He saw the prospect for the development of individual peasant farms in uniting them into cooperatives based on the sale and processing of products, as well as the basis of supplying it with tools and means of production. Referring to the issue of state farms, he wrote the following: “for their development, state investment is needed, but at present there is none, so their share in agricultural production is forced to remain insignificant.”

In the second half of the 1920s, the Market Research Institute began to calculate “peasant indices” based on registration in urban and rural markets of the prices of 52 types of goods bought and sold by peasants. These indices made it possible to trace the dynamics of changes in peasant farming under the influence of the market in the direction of growth (decline) of marketability, intensity, specialization and industrial processing of agricultural products. Analysis using these indices made it possible to see trends in the development of the peasant sector of the economy, the well-being of peasants, the prospects for the development of farms, social changes in rural society, and much more. These indices were called “kulak indices” by politicized journalists and opponents of Kondratiev and declared unscientific. Since 1927, the institute began to register prices for goods in urban and cooperative trade, which also contributed to the identification of dynamic processes in the economic life of the country.

At the end of the 1920s, N. Kondratiev, as a major scientist, was known in many countries of the world; he was recognized as one of the leaders in the analysis of the dynamics of economic conditions and was elected an honorary member of a number of social, economic, sociological and statistical societies in Europe and America . However, in the country N. Kondratiev and his colleagues increasingly began to be branded as scientists of a non-Marxist persuasion, representatives of bourgeois science. A rather tough position in relation to the ideas of N. Kondratiev was taken by the economist of the Stalinist team S. Strumilin, who believed that the idea of ​​a forecast plan was harmful, and therefore it was necessary to neutralize the school of N. Kondratiev. This position opened the floodgates for harassment of the scientist by Marxist economists who had support in power. After many years the famous modern economist, Academician L. Abalkin, assessing the directive planning of S. Strumilin, noted: “The ABC of planning according to Strumilin has never in our entire history been able to ensure in practice the correspondence of “plan” and “fact.” Planning based on Strumilin’s ideas is the most unreliable method of management ".

Since 1927, organized persecution of N. Kondratiev and his colleagues at the institute began. G. Zinoviev and M. Bronsky were especially zealous in this, who called Kondratiev’s ideas “the complete ideology of the new bourgeoisie.” L. Trotsky and N. Bukharin had a hand in this persecution. There was even a slogan in the magazine "Red Students": "Let's replace Kondratiev with proletarian youth." At the conference of agrarian-Marxists, the term “Kondratievism” began to be used as a common noun. A general mood with the attitude “we approve of the defeat of Kondratiev and Co.” was announced as a direction in the research work of agricultural economists professing Marxism. In the summer of 1930, N. Kondratyev was arrested, and many scientists and specialists in the national economy were arrested under the false pretext of counter-revolutionary activities. A wave of rallies and meetings swept across the country, at which, according to certain scenarios and with schizophrenic rage, arrested scientists were branded as pests; the average man demanded their death penalty. The meeting of the Timiryazev Agricultural Academy on October 6, 1930 demanded “the highest measure” for its former professors. In some scientific institutions the cry was raised: “Let us help the GPU in eradicating sabotage on the scientific front!” On November 25, 1930, more than 1 million Muscovites, fooled by propaganda, marched in front of the House of Unions with the slogans: “Shoot the counter-revolutionary bastard!” At the court hearing N.D. Kondratiev was accused of organizing the Labor Peasant Party, the scientist was sent to the Suzdal political isolation ward. If, in the first years of being in a political prison, from 1932-1934. he was still holding on and working, then from 1934 he began to lose his sight and hearing, while at the same time he was engaged in scientific research on the problem of trends in the economy (studying trends in economic growth and decline, indicators of these trends).

In 1936-1938 The “Great Terror” took over the country and on September 17, 1938, at the Kommunarka station near Moscow, N.D. Kondratyev was shot. Thus, the son of the Vichuzhsky land, one of the brilliant representatives of Russian economic science, the leader of the “golden” decade of Russian economic thought, N. D. Kondratiev, entered into immortality.

The return of the scientist’s name at the present time is connected not only with unproven evidence against him, but with the fact that the modern world economy is being shaken by crisis phenomena, the nature of which was traced by N.D. Kondratiev in his theoretical views. Much attention to N.D. Kondratiev is also explained by the fact that in modern world economic science, the problem of economic cycles occupies a large place in the research of theorists, which N.D. Kondratiev also studied for a long time.

The economic processes of 2008-2011 aggravated the significance of the problem of the global crisis and required the development of new approaches to the analysis of the ideas of N.D. Kondratiev to predict the future development of the world economy. A number of scientists associate these approaches with the analysis of the impact of innovative technologies, as well as the synergistic effect in interrelated industries (clusters), which can provide a breakthrough both in national economies and on a global scale.
N.D. Kondratiev’s methodology in studying the patterns of the world economy is based on the nonlinear, cyclical process of economic development that he discovered, which received the interpretation of “long-wave fluctuations in economic conditions.” The scientist associated the nature of these fluctuations with the dynamics of economic processes (crises, rise and fall of world prices, inflation, competition), technological discoveries (the use of new tools, mechanization and automation of production processes, the use of new types of energy), changes in the organization of production and labor ( manual production, which corresponded to the workshop and manufacturing organization of labor, was replaced by a new factory organization of production and labor as a result of the industrial revolution and industrial revolution, joint-stock enterprises changed the form of production management, transnational corporations expanded the scope of production and management to a global scale, management acquired an international character in production management) and political processes (revolutions, wars, colonial seizures of territories, protectionism in relation to the national market and production). All this, in conjunction, caused changes in the socio-economic way of life of countries and influenced (accelerated or inhibited) the economic development of the world community. The undulation of the ascending and descending stages of economic development did not have a clear smoothness; each of them had many internal features, consisting of small ups and downs, inversion processes. Within the framework of large waves of economic development, small and medium cycles arose. All this was proven by a large amount of empirical material, confirming the general direction of the long-wave fluctuation, which corresponded to the trend of upward economic progress. According to calculations by N.D. Kondratiev, the oscillatory circuit of a large wave covered a historical period of approximately 40 - 60 years. Based on this wave contour, he calculated long-wave oscillations (upward and downward stages of the wave), the beginning of which, according to the scientist, was associated with the industrial revolution of the last third of the 18th century. N.D. Kondratiev brought his analysis of these fluctuations to the 20s of the 20th century, which, according to the scientist’s methodology, was equivalent to three large waves of development of the world economy. Each of the large waves was characterized by N.D. Kondratiev with upward and downward stages, containing a variety of factors affecting world economic processes.

The upward stage of the wave, characterized by a period of prolonged dominance of high economic conditions in the world economy in the phases of revival and rise of the economic cycle, according to the scientist’s calculations, lasts 20-30 years. At this stage of the wave, processes of high tension accumulation and long-term placement of capital in fundamental and expensive structures, renewal and expansion of basic capital goods, radical changes and regrouping of the main productive forces of society, requiring huge capitals (as in in kind, and in monetary terms). Objectively, this is associated with the construction of large production facilities, large-scale land management work, and the training of skilled labor, which thereby should have contributed to the formation of a long-term upward wave of economic conditions. The complexity of the process of capital accumulation is that the volume of accumulation would be sufficient for active economic development (expenditure of capital) for ten or more years. At the same time, the accumulation process must continue at a higher rate than the growth of current investment, and be concentrated at the disposal of powerful entrepreneurial centers. This process of concentration is facilitated by the institutions of the credit system and stock Exchange, powerful financial and entrepreneurial centers, with their help accumulated capital is accumulated and concentrated, they make it extremely mobile. High savings intensity, as well as the relative abundance of supply and low cost of loan capital, low level commodity prices stimulate savings and long-term investment of capital. Free and cheap capital contributes to significant investment in large structures, causing radical changes in the conditions of production, which ultimately becomes quite profitable. However, this process has its limits, because investing capital in large production projects often leads to an increase in demand for it, which, in turn, gives rise to a tendency for its price to rise and interest rates to increase borrowed capital.

A long-term upward wave of economic conditions is also developing under the influence of the implementation of major technical discoveries. Thus, the classic example of the development of the textile industry shows that the emergence of textile engineering led to technological changes in iron processing and iron smelting. The advent of the steam engine led to large-scale construction of railways, canals, and shipbuilding. Technological changes in metal processing and the widespread need for metal tools and means of production caused the development of ferrous metallurgy and the mining industry. Electrical energy has caused fundamental changes in mechanical engineering, steel production and rolling; the transfer of electricity over long distances has changed the process of placing productive forces in countries and the spatial placement of technological equipment in enterprises. The industrial revolution of the second half of the 19th century and the scientific and technological progress of the second half of the 20th century created the basis for the large-scale development in the world economy of industries such as automobile manufacturing, machine tool building, mechanical engineering for various industries, the aviation industry, and space instrument making, which provided a breakthrough in the economy. The need to increase the production of non-ferrous metallurgy and the chemical industry, the growth of oil and gas production and refining, the use of nuclear energy, etc. has increased. Subsequent scientific and technical discoveries of the end of the 20th century were associated with the creation of the electronics industry, the production of computers, micro- and optoelectronics, and telecommunications , Internet, space technologies. Robotics, biotechnology, fine chemistry, nanotechnology, nanobiotechnology, genetic engineering, global intellectual information networks, superconductors, clean energy. All this is evidence of qualitatively new processes that give specificity to the waves of economic development.

Economic factors influencing the long-term upward wave of market conditions (price rises, expansion of production and trade turnover, increased competition for niches in market economy and new markets, expansion of the world market due to the involvement of new countries in world economic relations) are intertwined with international political relations. A characteristic phenomenon of this interweaving is military clashes over territories and markets for raw materials. At the same time, social contradictions within countries are intensifying, drawing various classes and social groups, the result of these contradictions are political upheavals and revolutions. Thus, radical changes arise in the field of economic practices and socio-political life of individual countries and in the world economy.

External military and internal social shocks that arise in the world community and individual countries increase unproductive consumption of resources, cause direct destruction, and weaken the rate of capital accumulation. This, combined with changes in world prices, begins to slow down further economic growth and weakens the possibility of a further improvement in the market situation. As a result, the lack of capital worsens, its price rises, which inevitably entails the emergence of preconditions for a general turning point in the situation towards its decline (reduction in economic activity, lower prices). Thus, another stage of the economic wave, the downward stage, begins to operate.

The downward stage of the wave coincides with the recession (recession) and depression phases of the economic cycle and is characterized by a period of low economic conditions. N.D. Kondratiev associated the manifestation of the downward stage of the wave with a high level of instability, prolonged and deep crises, which from internal crises of overproduction began to acquire a global character. This stage is described by a fall in prices and interest rates, a weakening of the growth rate of production and trade. It is characterized by a depressed state of economic life, which serves as an impetus for finding ways to reduce the cost of production through the development of new inventions. It is for this reason, according to the scientist, that in the long-term downward stage of the economic wave of economic conditions, technical discoveries and inventions are especially numerous. Agriculture suffers the most during a downward wave; prices for agricultural goods fall quickly and their purchasing power decreases. Industry quickly adapts to new conditions after a change in the situation, which serves as a favorable condition for the relative strengthening of the processes of accumulation and accumulation of capital in the hands of industrial, commercial and banking corporations. Capital becomes cheaper during this period, which creates a charge for technological innovation, its concentration and organization, in total, the conditions for the impetus for the development of an upward trend in the global economy, i.e. the birth of a new cycle.

Analysis of the downward stages of Kondratieff long-wave oscillations and cycles allows us to trace changes not only in the technological basis of industrial production, but also in the organizational form of production and labor. During the downward wave of the first Kondratiev cycle, feudal workshops, based mainly on manual labor and a narrow market for demand for products, were replaced by manufacturing production based on the simplest technical devices, cooperation and division of labor. Manufacturing production lost its importance due to the industrial revolution, which created the basis for the transition to factory production and the expansion of market relations.

The emergence of the industrial revolution on the downward wave of the second Kondratieff cycle, caused by significant changes in the tools of labor and means of production, was characterized by the widespread use of a system of machines and the spatial independence of production from the sources of energy consumed. In turn, these changes have caused the need for deep professional specialization of labor and the introduction of new forms of payment.

The downward wave of the third cycle formed the technical potential based on the internal combustion engine, the use of which changed the spatial perception of the world and brought closer national economies in world trade. This technical discovery changed the meaning of mined energy resources, when coal was replaced by oil and its products. The use of electricity and the possibility of transferring it over long distances had an even greater impact on the change in economic and everyday life.
In the downward stages of the fourth and fifth large waves (cycles) of economic development technological processes improved even more. The development of scientific and technical progress influenced the formation of technical potential based on microelectronics, Internet technologies, mobile communications, automation and robotization of production, using membrane technology. This also prompted the development of new types of energy sources. All this logically led to qualitative changes in the structure of the labor market, and the need arose to train a new type of professional personnel that would meet the requirements of changing production.

The introduction and further improvement of technological innovations also influenced changes in the scale and structure of the world market. The replacement of the sailing fleet with steam engines expanded the possibilities of navigation and international trade. Commodities, which occupied a dominant role at the initial stage of international trade relations, gradually gave way to knowledge-intensive goods, primarily engineering products, as well as oil refining. The parameters and range of demand for commercial products on the world market also changed under the influence of the introduction of scientific and technical progress achievements into production. The management of many processes in the global market has passed into the hands of transnational corporations, which have increasingly begun to divide the market space into spheres of influence.
The methodology for studying the “big waves” of economic development, which included the analysis of factors that influenced the directions of the waves and thereby determined the further progressive development of economic progress, makes it possible to analyze the content of subsequent long-wave fluctuations.
In his research N.D. Kondratiev paid great attention to the dynamics of commodity prices, interest on capital, production of iron, lead, coal and other parameters of economic development. Over the past decades, oil has been the main type of fuel, and there is a need to study a new parameter - oil prices.

Oil prices are closely related to political and economic processes. The level of inflation in oil importing countries, as well as their speed, depends on their values. economic growth. In addition, oil prices influence the formation of prices for other energy resources, commodity prices, etc.
The influence of world oil prices in our country is very significant. High prices help increase revenues federal budget Russia, which, in turn, allows for the implementation of important social projects, including the development of science.
A more detailed examination of the dynamics of world oil prices over the past half century reveals some patterns that are consistent with and confirm the post-Kondratieff long waves (IV and V). In the period after the end of the Second World War until the beginning of the seventies, the definition of “cheap oil” (;2.5 -3.5 dollars per barrel) dominated. The Egyptian-Israeli war of 1973, through the announcement of an embargo by Arab OPEC member countries against countries supporting Israel, influenced the world oil market. Between 1973 and 1980, oil prices made two jumps (1974 – $8.05/barrel; 1980 – $37.38/barrel). Arab countries, members of OPEC, during this period received maximum income from oil sales. This period is consistent with the years of the fourth downward wave (from 1968-1974 to 1984 - 1988).
In response to rising oil prices, the United States, Japan and Western European countries began to intensively develop energy-saving technologies (efficient cars, new designs of fuel combustion plants, heat transfer systems and other energy-saving technologies). As a result of the implementation of scientific and technological advances in these countries, oil consumption per unit of GDP decreased. At the same time, the energy crisis of the 70s of the twentieth century stimulated oil production in other countries, including the USSR. As a result of overflow oil market in 1986, prices collapsed (from $28.00/barrel to $15.10/barrel).

In the subsequent period, contradictory trends were also observed in the oil market, manifested in the rise and fall of prices for this hydrocarbon raw material. For example, as a result of a quota increase by decision of OPEC member countries, in 1997 oil prices began to fall (to 9 - 10 dollars per barrel). Since the late nineties, world oil prices have been actively rising, and in 2008 they reached their historical maximum of ($140/barrel); currently they fluctuate between $45-55/barrel. The rise in prices during this period coincides with the fifth downward wave of N.D. Kondratieva.

World oil prices are formed under the influence of a whole range of factors, but the strongest influence is still exerted by political factors (wars, revolutions, missile attacks, etc.).

Returning to the concept of Kondratiev's long waves, it is necessary to note that during the period of an upward wave there is a decrease in prices, and during the period of a downward wave there is an increase in prices. This is due to a number of reasons. The upward waves of Kondratieff cycles are accompanied by the introduction of scientific and technical developments into economic circulation. Since scientific and technological advances reduce the costs of exploration, production, transportation and storage of oil, this leads to a decrease in the price of oil. Improvements in oil production technology (inclined and horizontal drilling, new designs of oil platforms, etc.) and geological exploration (mathematical modeling, multidimensional geophysics, aerospace imaging) help reduce production costs. During the downward wave of the cycle, oil prices may tend to rise due to political considerations. Thus, the reduction in the supply of oil and the increase in demand for it in the case of the Egyptian-Israeli war of 1973 confirms this trend. The shortage of oil and its high cost stimulate the processes of scientific and technological development. The political factor has always played and continues to play a dominant role in the formation of oil prices. For example, the landing of American troops in Iraq led to noticeable panic on the oil exchanges. As a rule, oil traders are very sensitive to current events in the world. By increasing prices, they insure possible risks. Thus, the unrest in Libya in 2011 led to an increase in oil prices. At the end of 2011, prices rose after the Iranian leadership, in an attempt to avoid tougher political sanctions from the United States, announced its intention to block the Strait of Hormuz for tankers. This transport corridor is the main sea route for the export of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf countries.
The traditional point of view existing today is of the opinion that high oil prices restrain economic growth, and this fact fully fits into the concept of long waves N.D. Kondratieva. Since the downward wave is accompanied by low rates of economic growth or its absence.

Due to the cyclical nature of economic development, world oil prices are volatile. And in the near future, it would be logical for our country to restructure itself towards more active processing of oil and gas and the sale of innovative products of their processing on the world market.

The fifth big one is currently being completed economic cycle(1980-2010), its content is determined by the rapid development scientific and technological revolution and implementation of its achievements in economic processes. But, on the other hand, this wave was also characterized by destructive trends caused by a number of crises. The world economy has experienced crisis phenomena caused by changes in the price environment for strategic resources (oil, gas, food). Financial and banking crises 90s of the XX and early XXI centuries. put on the agenda the issue of overcoming American-centrism in global economy, and on the other hand, they caused a tendency towards regionalization of the economy due to integration processes between the macro-economies of individual countries. The ideas of a liberal economy were developed, causing the processes of eliminating state monopoly in the economy, which was most clearly visible in the former countries of the socialist camp.

The completion of the fifth wave of the large wave of the Kondratieff cycle, according to experts, will be associated with the expectation of high turbulence in the world economy, a decline in economic development, and an intensification of crisis phenomena. At the same time, at the downward stage of the fifth wave, a new technical potential will be formed on the basis of nano-, bio- and information technologies, and new form organization of capital. A characteristic feature of the fifth big wave at its final stage is the intensification of integration processes of a regional nature (the organization of the Shanghai Five countries) and countries with great resource potential (the BRIGS organization). Another feature is the shift in the center of economic development leaders from the North American continent to Southeast Asia. In this regard, it is appropriate to recall the forecast of sociologist P.A. Sorokin, put forward back in the 50s of the 20th century, about the movement of the center of economic and cultural life of the world to the south-eastern region of Asia. Japan, South Korea, China has created a powerful technological potential that can compete with the leading industrial countries of the world.

China is likely to be one of the leaders of the global economy in the future upward phase of the sixth Kondratieff wave, which will begin after 2020. China has managed to achieve high and stable economic growth, avoid political instability and maintain its financial system under sovereign control. The successes of the Chinese economy have convinced many politicians and futurists that economic growth is possible not only under the auspices of the United States and the IMF, but also with the participation and control of its own state. During the market reforms in China, the government achieved macroeconomic stability and fairly high foreign economic successes. This was a consequence of the implementation in the country investment model development with very high growth rates and accumulation rates. The two-sector model of the Chinese economy is characterized by the leading role of the state in the development of market principles in the economy. Government sector in China it is represented by key and most profitable industries: it includes 80% of the mining industry, 75% of energy, 86% of finance and insurance, 84% of transport and communication services, etc. In China's industrial equipment fleet, the share of Chinese production itself is about 70%, and among imported means of production, Japanese and German equipment predominate (the US share is only 4%). High share GDP, redistributed by the state to solve problems of poverty, development of science and education, gave rise to the expression “Beijing Consensus” (author was Joshua Ramo, editor of Time magazine), which meant a policy of equitable growth in the interests of ordinary people. China is overcoming the global economic crisis easier and faster than other countries. As a result of the implementation of the national model of economic development, the middle class is growing in the country, which currently makes up 43% of the country's population. In foreign policy China actively participates in integration processes; it is a member of a number of international associations (ASEAN, SCO, BRIGS, etc.), influencing the formation of a new international political and economic order with its participation.

Analysis of N.D. Kondratiev’s methodology in relation to the economic development of the world economy allows us to highlight the features characteristic of the dynamics Russian economy. It should be noted that from the first quarter of the 18th century until the end of this century, the country experienced active economic development. The decrees of Peter I and Catherine II contributed to the development of state-owned, patrimonial merchant and peasant manufactories. In 1775, the Manifesto “On Freedom of Enterprise” was published, which influenced the acceleration of “the establishment of factories and factories without special permission, based on wage labor.” An example of such a process is the peasant manufactories in the estates of Count Sheremetyev, in the villages of Ivanovo and Pavlovo. The owners of these manufactories were serf “capitalist” peasants. By the end of the 18th century, there were more than 2,300 industrial enterprises in Russia. The country ranked first in the world in iron smelting, surpassing even England. There were 111 blast furnaces operating in Russia, producing 9.9 million pounds of pig iron (England produced 9.5 million pounds). Russian iron was of better quality than in France and England. As a result of such competition, France was forced to introduce import duties on the import of Russian metal. In Russia at this time, cotton production began to develop, and already at the end of the 18th century, fabrics were produced in 250 cotton factories, in which up to 90% of employees were hired. In Russia, 20 years before D. Watt, the steam engine was invented by I. Polzunov, and the first lathe, invented by A. Nartov, appeared.

Along with industrial development commodity-money relations intensified in Russia, and a capacious market for agriculture was formed. During the reign of Elizabeth Petrovna, internal customs duties and numerous petty fees were eliminated, and at the same time, fees from foreign trade transactions increased. Trade within the country was encouraged everywhere, and a Merchant Bank, merchant guilds began to be formed (the 1st guild included merchants with capital from 10 to 50 thousand rubles, the 2nd guild - with a capital from 5 to 10 thousand rubles, the 3rd guild - with a capital from one thousand to 5 thousand rubles). The country introduced the status of “famous citizens”, whose capital reached 100 thousand rubles. Foreign trade intensified due to gaining access to Europe through sea ​​ports. From the second half of the 18th century, the volume of foreign trade turnover increased from 20 million rubles to 80 million rubles in the 90s of this century. In foreign trade there was a positive trade balance. The import into the country of goods from abroad that could be produced within Russia was prohibited. High customs duties from 100 to 200% were imposed on imported luxury goods, while at the same time export duties on products exported from the country averaged 10-23% of their value.

The next century, the 19th century, turned out unfavorably for Russia. The country began to lag significantly behind European countries in economic development, where the end of the industrial revolution, and an industrial economy took shape. By the beginning of the 20th century, despite the emancipation of socio-economic relations in the country after the reform of 1861, which gave impetus to the development of the domestic economy, Russia was still in the echelon of countries of medium development, and its technological development depended, to a certain extent, on the supply of machinery and equipment from abroad. The chance for a breakthrough in the country's economy was lost due to the incompleteness of P.A. Stolypin's reforms. According to foreign experts, if the country had maintained the pace of economic development as a result of Stolypin’s reforms, then already in the 30s of the 20th century it would have become one of the leading countries in the world.

In the Soviet economy, despite breakthroughs in economic development, there was technological diversity and incomplete solutions to the problems of transferring sectors of the national economy to an industrial footing; for many years, production assets formed in the pre-Soviet period were exploited. Blocking Soviet country“Curzon's cordon sanitaire”, preserved an outdated technological structure, the military events of the second half of the 30s and the first half of the 40s of the XX century created conditions only for the development of the military industry. The technological breakthrough in the USSR was carried out mainly in the 50s within the framework of the fourth technological structure, and then mainly in the military-industrial complex, which made it possible to achieve military-technical parity with developed countries peace. This trend continues to this day. In subsequent years, the energy of the breakthrough was lost, which caused a technological lag and led to an economic crisis in the early 90s of the last century.
Will Russia become one of the leaders in global development after 2020, the big, big question? In Russia, the “Strategy 2020”, which is absolutely adequate to the requirements of the sixth Kondratieff cycle, was proclaimed, which is based on the country’s position as a leading energy power. In this regard, the question logically arises about the state of production assets in the fuel and energy complex and the need for technical re-equipment of the energy sector, taking into account global trends. Another problem is the state of the Russian agro-industrial complex and its core - agriculture. With the growing demand for food in the world economy, Russia could occupy a stable niche in global grain exports. This begs the question of comparing the capabilities of Russia with small Denmark, because this country exports food worth more than $8 billion, Russia continues to maintain high level food imports. Russia has made a fairly significant leap in product exports, taking fifth place in the world at the beginning of 2012 ($537.6 billion) and ahead of the “Asian tigers” - the NIS countries, but ahead of Russia are Japan (769.8), Germany (1271 ,3), USA (1277.6) and China together with Hong Kong (1968.5) billion dollars. 81% of Russia's export revenue comes from the sale of resources (fuel, metals, timber and lumber). However, the share of high-tech export products in the total revenue from all exports is only 4.55%.

The philosopher I. Prigogine noted: “The world is not stable. But this does not mean that it is not amenable to scientific knowledge. Recognizing instability is not capitulation; on the contrary, it is an invitation to new experimental and theoretical research that takes into account the specific nature of this world.”
List of used literature
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