MAIN DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS OF RUSSIA. SOLUTIONS.

Demographic problem of the Russian Federation – a global problem of humanity associated with population decline, when the birth rate falls below the level of simple population reproduction and below the mortality rate.

Demographic crisis in the Russian Federation - a deep violation of the reproduction of the population of the Russian Federation, threatening its existence.The emergence of a crisis – early 1990s

Causes:

demoeconomic – reduction in fertility and childbearing;

socio-economic – changes in society, radical economic reforms, deterioration of the environment, decline in living standards;

socio-medical – a sharp decline in the quality of life and health of the population, mass drug addiction and alcoholism, increased mortality;

social and ethical – a sharp deformation of the social structure of society, degradation of its institutions and public morality, mass psychological depression, crisis of the institution of family.

1. Lifespan

Average life expectancy in Russia: ♂57.7 years and ♀71.2 years.

Compare : USA, Canada, France, Germany and other developed countries: ♂73-74 years and ♀79-80 years; Japan: ♂75.9 and ♀81.6.

The gap between life expectancy ♂ and ♀ in the Russian Federation is 13 years – an extraordinary indicator.

2. Declining birth rate

2003 – the birth rate fell by 15% compared to 2002 and reached 9.0 births per 1,000 people.

3. High mortality rate

2003 – mortality: 16.6 deaths per 1,000 people.Compare : USA – 9.0.

4. Child mortality

Indicator – 18.6; those. 18-19 deaths under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births.Compare : USA – 5, Canada, Japan – 7, the most developed countries of Western Europe – 6-8. In the Russian Federation infant mortality 3 times higher than in the world.

5. Increase in the number of abortions

The number of abortions per 1,000 women of childbearing age in the Russian Federation is 83.Compare : Germany – 5.1; Austria – 7.7; France – 13.8; Hungary – 35.6; Yugoslavia – 38.6; Bulgaria – 67.2.

Examples of solutions demographic problem in Russia:

2001 – Concept of demographic development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2015. - stated to be deplorable demographic situation in the Russian Federation, the goals and objectives of demographic policy are formulated.

2007 – newConcept of demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 .

A set of measures aimed at solving the demographic problem:

increase average duration life of the population;

rise in healthcare + improvement medical care women suffering from infertility;

strengthening the institution of family, reviving traditional family values;

family planning organization;

revision of the sex education program for schoolchildren;

support for large families (orders “Mother Heroine”, “Maternal Glory”);

financial support for the family (payments at the birth of a child, child support assistance for low-income families, the law on “ maternity capital"(387,640 rubles. 30 kopecks in 2012));

providing housing for young families with 2 or more children on preferential terms;

a balanced migration policy aimed at attracting the Russian-speaking population.

Solving problems of demographic development in Russia and abroad

In accordance with the results of statistical and mathematical calculations and forecasts, we hypothesize that an increase in the level of GDP production, living standards, basic indicators of employment and others economic indicators are capable of returning the demographic situation in Russia to the stage of “demographic transition” at which it was interrupted in the early 1990s with the onset of the economic, social and demographic crises. Thus, promising tasks fall into two groups. The first group of tasks is relevant at the present time and is being solved at the stage of Russia’s emergence from the demographic crisis and return to the “demographic transition” track. The second group of tasks is related to the long-term perspective and the beginning of Russia’s movement following the countries that have gone farthest along the trajectory of the “demographic transition,” especially in terms of reducing mortality and increasing life expectancy. Of course, following these countries, Russia will inevitably face the threat of an aging population, balancing the birth rate at a relatively low level that does not ensure natural reproduction, and problems in the field of immigration.

It can be concluded that an increase in fertility and a decrease in mortality to levels similar to those observed in the late 1980s could occur as a result GDP growth and standard of living to appropriate values. This means that the basis of demographic policy for the coming years is the growth of production, employment, income of the population, an increase in housing construction and its real affordability for the population. That is, demographic policy in a broad sense is the entire economic policy. However, this does not mean that the state has the right to refrain from pursuing demographic policy in the narrow sense - solving specific problems of population reproduction using methods that have long been tested in France and other foreign countries and were partially used in our country until 1991.

First of all, it is necessary to strengthen the stimulation of the birth rate by increasing family benefits in connection with the birth and raising of children to levels comparable to living wage(per each child of the appropriate age). The costs that may be imposed on the state budget are not comparable with the future damage from depopulation if measures against this latter are not taken without delay. Of course, it is also necessary special programs development of healthcare, improvement of working conditions, combating domestic injuries and other measures to combat mortality.

In addition it is necessary:

meeting the needs of families for preschool education services;

availability of housing for families with children;

stimulating the birth rate - providing maternal (family) capital, flexibility of forms..., banning the promotion of abortion, strengthening the family, improving material living conditions;

improving health, especially among young people;

reducing mortality (fighting alcoholism, drug addiction);

increasing life expectancy (fighting mass diseases, increasing prosperity, improving health);

strive to change moral values ​​when priority family life there becomes a need not for a water child, but for several;

in love for children;

prestige needs to be raised large family.

In addition to the listed measures, efforts to develop attitudes towards self-preservation behavior and a healthy lifestyle of the population may be useful.

The strategic goals of migration policy are based on priorities, which are: preservation of demographic, labor and defense potential, geopolitical balance, normalization of settlement proportions, primarily the settlement of underdeveloped and border areas, etc. Implementation of effective policies in the field of regulation of migration and population, in particular , involves using the migration potential of the CIS and Baltic countries in the interests of the demographic development of the Russian Federation, effectively protecting the rights of forced migrants and refugees throughout the country, and promoting the integration of forced migrants into Russian society.

Profiling remains necessary various categories immigrants to Russia and the transition to a differentiated system of privileged attraction to the territory of Russia of compatriots (repatriates) from among the representatives of the indigenous peoples of the Russian Federation and countries that are in integration relations with it - currently this is Belarus - with appropriate provision of their housing, work, all types social benefits (following the models of Germany and Israel), limited admission, based on strict criteria, of all other categories of foreign citizens (regardless of their origin from the CIS and Baltic countries or other countries). Among the criteria for admission of the last category of migrants to Russia may be family reunification, compelling reasons for obtaining political refugee status, availability of capital for investment in the Russian economy, availability of scarce Russian market labor specialties and qualifications (modeled on the USA and a number of other countries). It would also be advisable to introduce quotas for the latter category of immigrants and pursue a strict policy of deportation of persons unjustifiably (illegally) staying in the territory Russian Federation. When carrying out migration policy, it should be borne in mind that the reception and decent placement of desirable (privileged) categories of immigrants should be of a massive nature and serve as a replenishment demographic losses Russia (in particular, negative natural increase), and improving the quality of its workforce as a result of the influx of qualified specialists and persons with sufficient high level education.

In the mid-1970s. Birth rates in the “old” and “new” worlds practically coincided. Changes in institutional control over the sphere of sexuality and childbirth were also unidirectional. The spearhead of youth unrest in the second half of the 1960s. on both sides of the Atlantic was not least directed against forms of such control that were unacceptable to the new generation. Although the “May Revolution” of 1968 in Paris ended, as it seemed then, with the defeat of young people who rebelled against the “system,” just a few years later, significant liberalization of family and reproductive legislation began in both Europe and the United States. This happened partly because in the thermonuclear era the “demographic competition” of the great powers lost its military-political relevance, and partly due to the widespread revision of the functions of the state.

Legislative acts legalizing abortion were adopted: in England in 1967, Denmark and the USA - in 1973, Sweden - in 1974, France - 1975-1979, Germany - 1976. In Italy, in referendums in 1974 and 1978 the majority of voters opposed the repeal of laws that allowed divorce and legalized abortion. Events formed into such a consistent picture of the triumph of liberal values ​​that it was time to talk about the “end of history” a decade before F. Fukuyama wrote about it (in a broader context). Suddenly this picture began to fall apart. Three levels of fertility have emerged:

The highest, close to the level of simple reproduction, is in the USA;

Relatively low - Western European;

Ultra-low - southern European (most pronounced in Italy).

Almost simultaneously with the divergence in fertility trends, differences in trends in institutional control over the sphere of sexuality and childbirth began to appear. As the attitude of European politicians and the public towards abortion, extramarital cohabitation and same-sex marriage became increasingly liberal, conservative trends gained strength in the United States.

The “first sign” was the refusal in 1984 of the administration of R. Reagan, an irreconcilable opponent of abortion, to fund foreign organizations facilitating their implementation. In 2003, George W. Bush signed an executive order banning abortions in late pregnancy, and a year later, an act protecting unborn victims of violence. In February 2004, he also proposed an amendment to the US Constitution to exclude the possibility of legal registration of same-sex marriages. These initiatives were motivated by moral considerations and the fundamental importance of Christian values ​​for the American nation.

In general, differences in the attitudes of Americans and Europeans towards religion are increasingly increasing. Thus, recent comparative studies have shown that religion plays a very important role in the lives of 59% of US residents. This is much more than in the UK (33%), Italy (27%), Germany (21%), Russia (14%), France (11%). In American society, the positions of opponents of abortion are strengthening. If in the mid-1990s, judging by polls by the Gallup Institute, 33% of Americans surveyed defined their position as pro-life (in defense of life, against abortion), and pro-choice (for freedom of choice, against the ban on abortion) - 56 %, then in 2000 these figures were 45% and 47%, respectively. Changes in reproductive legislation initiated by the Republican administration are supported by the overwhelming majority of conservative Christian voters

Over the past decades, conservative patterns of demographic behavior have remained widespread among the US population. The total fertility rate for white non-Hispanic women in the country is 1.9, which is noticeably higher than in the vast majority of European countries. By 2002, 40.4% of American women in this category aged 40-44 who were (or were previously) married had already given birth to two children, another 20.1% had three, and 8.7% had four or more children. . 45% of American women aged 15 to 44 with children are economically inactive (that is, not working, not looking for work, or not ready to start work). Thus, we can talk about the widespread prevalence in the United States of the “conservative-demographic” syndrome, which includes interconnected conservative models of not only political and electoral, but also demographic behavior.

It is necessary to note a number of other factors that have a positive effect on the birth rate in the United States. This is fast growth wages American women, which allowed many of them to give birth to children “without regard” to not very reliable partners; the rapid growth of the child care services market; fairly generous subsidization of parents' expenses for such services from federal funds. In addition, structural changes in the labor market have led to an increase in the number of part-time jobs (32% of working women aged 15 to 44 with children work in them). Finally, it is worth mentioning the rapid growth in the number of Hispanics (currently about 13% of all US residents), who are characterized by a slightly higher birth rate than the rest of the country's population (the total fertility rate in 2000 was, respectively, 3.1 and 2.1).

Since the early 1980s. Fertility trends in Western European countries also began to diverge. If in the latter there was a stabilization of the total fertility rate at a level (on average for the region) of 1.6-1.7 with a rapid increase in the share of out-of-wedlock births, then in Italy the total fertility rate fell to unprecedentedly low levels (about 1.2), while the share of out-of-wedlock births grew much more slowly.

The roots of this phenomenon lie in the specific Italian relationships between institutions such as the state, church, family and marriage. The strength of family ties and family entrepreneurship have long compensated for the weakness and inefficiency of the state in Italy. Such an organization of society sharply increases the individual’s dependence on the family and imposes special responsibilities on older family members towards younger ones, because without family protection it is very difficult to find a worthy place in life.

In Italy, marriage still has unconditional moral priority over non-marital union. The attitude towards the institution of marriage remains quite serious - in the age group of 20-24 years, this institution is considered outdated by only 11.6% of women and 15.3% of men. In addition, the divorce procedure is still quite complex. As a result, people do not marry because it is too responsible, and do not create extramarital unions because it is reprehensible. While in Northern and Western Europe out-of-wedlock births make a significant contribution to the total number of births, this does not happen in Southern Europe.

The marital birth rate is also low. Italians would still like to have two or three children in their families5. However, the norms of Italian familismo (familismo), that is, nepotism, have a lowering effect on the birth rate, because they require parents to zealously care about the education and professional career of their children, and these are very expensive enterprises. In addition, the labor market in Italy offers fewer opportunities for flexible employment for women compared to other economically developed countries. As a result, young people postpone marriage until the last possible opportunity, which adversely affects the level of marital fertility. Late marriage is also facilitated by the centuries-old tradition of parents and children living together in a number of regions of Italy, the high cost of rented housing, and the high, although declining, level of youth unemployment. Much of the above is also typical for Spain, where the birth rate is also noticeably lower than in Western Europe.

Mortality in countries with transition economy: differences in the depth and timing of recovery from the crisis.

USSR and countries of Central and of Eastern Europe(CEE) since the mid-1960s. faced stagnation or decline in life expectancy. The transformational recession has worsened the situation everywhere. The UN report in this regard calls the loss of human lives associated with the decrease in life expectancy of young and middle-aged men in a number of CEE countries (especially in Russia) as the most severe “human cost” of the transition from one socio-economic system to another. However, the magnitude of this decrease and the subsequent dynamics of indicators in the east and west of the region under consideration were different.

The first to emerge from the decline in life expectancy were the Czech Republic and Slovakia (in 1991), Poland (in 1992), Hungary (in 1994), followed by Romania, Bulgaria and Moldova (in 1997, 1998 and 1999, respectively) gg.). In Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, a steady increase in life expectancy has not begun to date.

The depth of the life expectancy crisis in various countries of the region and the timing of recovery from it were determined by the nature of interaction between institutions of various types and levels:

law enforcement and health care institutions;

property rights;

permanent ways of thinking and acting that have become habit and custom.

The countries in which:

the nature of socio-economic transformations corresponded to the mindset of the majority of the population;

law enforcement and health care institutions were more easily reformed;

the alcohol subculture had a lesser role in economic, political and everyday life;

the standard of living before the transformational recession was relatively high;

there were favorable political and economic conditions for foreign investment.

Borovikova Maria

Demography- the science about patternspopulation reproduction. She studies numbers

migration and other reasons.

by level fertility And mortality;

by the difference between them - level natural increase;

according to condition gender and age structure,

The goal of my project

Research objectives :

1. Learn history education and reasons demographic crises;

2. Assess the consequences demographic crisis

Research methods :

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Introduction

Conclusion 16 Bibliography 18 Appendix 20

Introduction

Demographics - the scienceabout patternspopulation reproduction. She learns number, territorial distribution and composition of the population, their changes, causes and consequences of these changes and makes recommendations for their improvement.

Demographic situation is the state of population reproduction, which depends on socio-economic, natural conditions, migrationand other reasons.

The demographic situation, population reproduction, its condition and dynamics are assessed:

1. by birth and death rates;
2. by the difference between them - levelnatural increase;
3. according to condition gender and age structure,which has an active influence on both the state of demographic processes.

The goal of my project: analyze the current demographic situation in Russia based on the latest available statistical data

Research objectives:

1. Explore history education and reasonsdemographic crises;
2. Estimate consequencesdemographic crisis
3. Suggest ways out of the demographic crisis.

Research methods:

1. Statistical (population data);
2. Mathematical (determining the birth rate in Russia);
3. Analytical (analysis of data on natural growth), etc.

1. History of the formation of demographic crises

Demographic crisis in the Russian Federation -reproductive disorderpopulationRussiathreatening his existence. The emergence of the crisis dates back to the early 1990s.

Demographers believe that the main reasons for the demographic crisis in the Russian Federation are:

1. Declining birth rate.From 1965 to the present, the birth rate in Russia does not providesimple population reproduction

The reason for the decline in the birth rate is said to be a change in reproductive attitudes under the influence of the media, the introduction of foreign models of family, reproductive and sexual behavior into the consciousness of Russian youth.

Since 1988, there has been a sharp decline in the number of births, against the background of an increasemortalitythere was a demographic decline (mortalityhigher birth rate), but natural population growth continued until1992, when for the first time the number of births amounted to 1.58 million people and deaths - 1.80 million people.

The birth rate in Russia exceeds similar indicators in the EU countries (9.9 per 1000 people), Japan (7.7 per 1000 people), Canada (10.2 per 1000 people) and approximately corresponds to the level of France and Australia. Mortality continues to outweigh the birth rate. However, compared to 2009, the rate of natural decline decreased - by 5.6%. In 1999, the total coefficient was 1.15, and by 2009 it increased to 1.55.(see appendix fig. 6).

Regional differences in fertility are partially smoothed out. If in 60syears, the total fertility rate was inMoscow 1.4, and in Dagestan- 5, then by 2009 this figure in Moscow dropped to 1.3, and in Dagestan - to 1.9. Population growth from 2002 to 2010 in Moscow is up to 11%, and in Dagestan over 15%(see appendix fig. 7.)

1. Reduced life expectancy.The mortality rate among Russian men and women of working age is significantly higher than the European average. The average life expectancy of men is 61.4 years, the life expectancy of women is much higher - 73.9 years(see appendix fig. 8).

Increase in mortality. The mortality rate is especially high among Russian men, which is associated, in particular, with the high level of consumption of strong alcoholic beverages, a large number of accidents, murders and suicides.(see appendix fig. 9).However, infant mortality in Russia is only slightly higher than the European average and amounts to 8.1 deaths before one year old per 1000 live births (2009, dataMinistry of Health and Social Development). The main classes of causes of mortality in Russia in 2007:

Directories

1. Russia’s Peacetime Demographic Crisis: Dimensions, Causes, Implications
2. Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, G. A. Cornia. Population crisis and rising mortality in transitional Russia. - in.: Mortality crisis in transitional economies. - Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000: p. 253-279.
3. A. G. Vishnevsky, V. M. Shkolnikov.Mortality in Russia. Main risk groups and action priorities. - M.: Carnegie Moscow Center, Scientific reports, Vol. 19, 1997

Application

Figure 1. B XX centuryRussia has experienced several demographic crises.

Fig.2 Data on the number of births and deaths since 1950.

Fertility Mortality Growth


Global trends

Fig.3 World map byaverage number of children born to a woman during her lifetime, taking into account averages for women of all ages, data from 2011.

7-8 children 6-7 children 5-6 children 4-5 children

3-4 children 2-3 children 1-2 children 0-1 children

Fig.4 Dynamics of natural decline and migration growth of the population of Russia in 1993-2009, thousand people.

Figure 5. Population of Russia in 1950-2010.

Fig.6 Total fertility rate in Russia in 1990-2009

Fig.7 Changes in population in different regions of the Russian Federation.

Fig.8 Dynamics of the overall mortality rate for men in the RSFSR and the Russian Federation since 1950

Fig.9 Dynamics of life expectancy for men and women in the Russian Federation since 1950

Rice. 10 Number of deaths from murders in Russia in 1990-2009, per 100 thousand people

Sex and age pyramid

Fig. 11 Population pyramid of Russia in 2011 by gender and age.

Fig. 12 Trends in increasing life expectancy in Russia.

The totality of all people living on the planet (humanity) or on a certain territory - continent, country, republic, region, separate settlement - is called population. Various events that constantly happen to people, developing into certain processes, are studied by a special science - demography.

The population is constantly in motion, in quantitative and qualitative change, reproduced through a change of generations, as well as through territorial movements.

The world's population forms demographic situation, i.e. state demographic processes(growth and reproduction of the population, changes in its composition, migration mobility).

The rapid growth of the world population, most of which occurs in developing countries with backward economies and undeveloped social spheres, which are unable to turn this growth to the benefit of their development, creates global demographic problem, the importance and significance of which is now recognized by all states, which have realized that the relationship between population development and nature is more fragile than previously thought, that the growth of armed conflicts and the arms race, especially in developing countries, lead to enormous material costs, significantly worsening opportunities for economic and social development and thereby to solve population problems.

Uncontrollable migration And urbanization positive phenomena turn into negative ones. Solving all these problems is possible only with the joint efforts of the entire world community. This was greatly facilitated by the creation of 1969 within the UN UN Special Fund for activities in the field of population and under its auspices World conferences on population problems.

One of the main documents of the fund was World Population Action Plan (Programme), adopted in Bucharest (1997) for twenty years.

The program covered questions fertility, mortality and population growth rates, issues of urbanization and migration.

The basis for the actual solution of population problems according to the plan is, first of all, socio-economic transformations.

The program examines the relationships between population, sustainable economic growth and sustainable development, calls for policies and laws to better support families and promote family stability.

Many states began to regulate population growth.

The government of the most populous country, China, has set out to limit the birth rate by prohibiting families from having more than one child.

As a result annual population growth decreased from 2.8 to 1.0% and became below the world average. Populous India also decided to follow the Chinese path.

In some developed countries(France, Germany, Denmark) is held policy, aimed at increasing the fertility rate: families with two or more children are allocated good benefits and are provided with various benefits.

Demographic problems in the world are part of the so-called global problems. Global problems are problems that affect the entire world and solutions that require the efforts of all humanity. These problems occurred in the second half of the 20th century, and they are getting worse in the 21st century. Their characteristic is a stable connection with each other.

The demographic problem is divided into two parts:

• The problem of strong population growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
• The problem of population decline and aging in Western Europe, Japan and Russia.

The problem of population growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America

Problems of demography in the world became especially important in the second half of the 20th century. During this time, significant changes have occurred in the social sphere of society:

• First, medicine has made great strides through the use of new drugs and new medical equipment. As a result, we were able to solve epidemics of diseases that previously destroyed hundreds of thousands of people and reduced the mortality rate due to the operation of other dangerous diseases.
• Secondly, since the mid-20th century, humanity has not fought world wars that could reduce the population.

As a result, deaths worldwide have fallen sharply. The planet's population reached 7 billion people at the beginning of the 21st century. About 6 billion live in third world countries - in Asia and Latin America.

These countries experienced a process called the population explosion.

Main reasons population explosion in third world countries:

• Still high birth rates along with low death rates.
• The important role of traditional religious and national values ​​prohibiting abortion and the use of contraception.
• Some countries in Central Africa are influenced by pagan culture. And consequently - low level morality and promiscuity.

In the 1950s and 1960s, the effects of the population explosion caused an optimistic decline in the population. However, it later became clear that the strong increase in the birth rate causes many problems:

• The problem of the number of working-age population.

  In some countries, the number of children under 16 years of age is the same, and in some even higher than the number of adults.

• The problem is the lack of territories that meet the necessary conditions for the life and development of citizens.
• The problem of food shortages.
• The problem of shortage of raw materials.

Thus, the demographic problem is closely related to many other global problems.

At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, a number of third world countries launched policies at the state level, which contributed to a decrease in the birth rate of the population. This applies primarily to China and India, where the series motto is widespread: “One family, one child.”

Families with one or two children began to take advantage of government benefits. This produced some results, while the birth rate was somewhat reduced.

However, population growth in these countries is still very high.

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Characteristics of the demographic situation in developed countries

Developed Western countries have a serious influence on demographic problems in the world.

These countries have seen a clear downward trend in their aging populations over the past fifty years.

This means that, on the one hand, the number of older people and life expectancy are increasing. Reasons: improving the level of health and social services for citizens.

On the other hand, the birth rate is falling sharply, which means that the percentage of young people is decreasing.

Developed countries of the world from the point of view of the demographic situation can be divided into several groups:

• Countries where the population is growing due to their own fertility. This means that the country's birth rate exceeds its death rate. These are Slovakia, Ireland, France, England.
• Countries where population growth is still dependent on fertility are higher due to migration: Spain, Netherlands, Finland, Cyprus, USA, Canada, Italy, Greece, Germany.
• Countries whose population is declining due to excessive mortality due to births and emigration of their population to other countries: Bulgaria, Baltic countries, Poland.

What are the reasons for the decline in fertility in the West?

Firstly:

• The consequences of the sexual revolution in the sixties and seventies, when various methods of contraception were widely used.
• Interest in career growth in the official field, which usually significantly increases the timing of marriage and the birth of children in the West.
• Family crisis in modern society: an increase in the proportion of divorces and unregistered coexistence.
• Increasing number of same-sex marriages.
• A very modern Western culture of “comfort”. The parent does not encourage the expense of additional efforts to increase and provide financial support to more children.

Further continuation of the process of reducing the birth rate in the countries of Western Europe threatens the disappearance of its own population and the replacement of its descendants from the countries of Asia and Africa. The beginning of this process can now be seen in Europe and analyzed latest development migrants from third world countries.

The current demographic situation in Russia

Demographic problems in the world have affected Russia. Our country can be classified as a European country of the second group. This means that we have a small population increase, but it is carried out not only with the help of birth rates, but also with immigration from the CIS countries.

In 2016, deaths in Russia exceeded births by about 70,000 per year. It moves into the state, over the same period of time, about 200 thousand.

Causes of the demographic problem in Russia:

• Consequences of the economic and social recession of the nineties of the last century.

  The low standard of living that many families justify abandoning a child. However, it should be borne in mind that in practice, the high standard of living in Western Europe leads to a decrease in the birth rate in the region.

• Lack of society in many Catholic and Muslim countries abroad due to long-standing communist rule of strong religious beliefs.
• Wrong government policies that force families with a large number of children in the country to receive long-term benefits.
• Lack of pro-abortion propaganda at the national level.

  Russia ranks among the first in the world in the number of abortions, along with Vietnam, Cuba and Ukraine.

Government policy aimed at last years for financial support for families choosing a second and third child, brought results.

Improvement played a special role medical services. The country's birth rate has increased significantly, while the death rate has decreased slightly.

However, in Russia it is necessary to develop long-term and comprehensive programs promoting fertility, supporting large families, single mothers and reducing abortions.

Can play an important role government activity aimed at raising the moral standards of the population.

Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution

higher professional education

"Kuban State Technological University"

Faculty of Economics, Management and Business

Department of Economics and Financial Management

COURSE WORK

by discipline " World economy and international economic relations"

on the topic: “The world demographic problem and ways to solve it”

Completed

Puchkova O.N.

Krasnodar - 2013

Introduction

Theoretical basis world demography

2 Reasons influencing population dynamics

Analysis of world demographic problems

1 Analysis of population dynamics

2 Ways to solve the demographic problem

Conclusion

List of sources used

Introduction

In the modern era, rapid population growth has an increasing impact both on the life of individual states and on international relationships generally.

IN modern world there are a huge number of problems, such as preventing nuclear war, overcoming the backwardness of developing countries, food and energy problems, eliminating dangerous diseases, pollution environment and a number of other problems, but, in my opinion, demographics occupy a special place among them.

It determines the development of almost all global problems of humanity.

Due to the avalanche-like growth of the population on the planet, humanity is facing more and more new problems. The earth is several billion years old. If this period of time is compressed to one day, it turns out that humanity exists for no more than a second. However, according to UN estimates, by 2015 there will be about 8 billion people living on the planet. They will all need water, food, air, energy and a place in the sun. But the planet can no longer provide this to every person.

To provide people with everything they need, plants and factories are built, minerals are mined, and forests are cut down.

This causes enormous damage to nature, and it is difficult or impossible for humans to correct their mistakes. This could lead to a global environmental disaster.

The importance and significance of the demographic problem is recognized by all states. In a finite space, population growth cannot be infinite. Stabilization of the world population is one of the important conditions for the transition to sustainable environmental and economic development.

1. Theoretical foundations of world demography

1 The concept and essence of demography

Demography is the science of the patterns of population reproduction, the dependence of its character on socio-economic, natural conditions, migration, studying the size, territorial distribution and composition of the population, their changes, the causes and consequences of these changes and giving recommendations for their improvement.

Demography is sometimes called a type of practical activity of collecting data, describing and analyzing changes in the size, composition and reproduction of the population.

The history of demographic science has long been associated with the development of an empirical form of knowledge, limited to the collection, processing and interpretation of population data in accordance with practical needs.

The fulfillment of this function was accompanied by constant improvement of research methods.

The term “demography” appeared in 1855 in the title of the book by the French scientist A. Guillard, “Elements of Human Statistics, or Comparative Demography.” He viewed demography in a broad sense as “the natural and social history of the human race” or more narrowly as “the mathematical knowledge of populations, their general movement, physical, civil, intellectual and moral condition.”

The concept of “demography” received official recognition in the name of the International Congress of Hygiene and Demography, held in Geneva in 1882.

Demography has its own clearly defined object of study—the population. Demography studies the size, territorial distribution and composition of the population

The unit of the population in demography is a person who has many characteristics - gender, age, marital status, education, occupation, nationality, etc. Many of these qualities change throughout life.

Therefore, the population always has such characteristics as size, age-sex structure, and family status. Change in the life of each person leads to changes in the population. These changes collectively constitute population movements.

Typically, population movements are divided into three groups:

• natural

Includes marriage rates, birth rates, and deaths, the study of which is the exclusive competence of demography.

• migration

This is the totality of all territorial movements of the population, which ultimately determine the nature of settlement, density, seasonal and pendulum mobility of the population.

• social

Transitions of people from one social groups to others.

This type of movement determines the reproduction of social structures of the population. And it is precisely this relationship between population reproduction and changes in social structure that is studied by demography.

The “natural” or “biological” essence of the population is manifested in its ability to constantly renew itself in the process of generational change as a result of births and deaths.

And this continuous process is called population reproduction.

The processes of fertility, mortality, as well as marriage and divorce rates, being components of population reproduction, are called demographic processes.

To study demographic processes, a system of statistical indicators is used: all these indicators, as a rule, have a quantitative expression, which are based on measurements of demographic phenomena and processes.

Demographic analysis is the main method of processing information to obtain demographic indicators.

Two types of demographic analysis are most common.

Ø Longitudinal analysis is a method for studying demographic processes in which they are described and analyzed in cohorts, i.e.

that is, in populations of people who simultaneously entered a certain demographic state. This means that demographic events are considered in their natural sequence. The advantage of longitudinal analysis is the ability to study the calendar of demographic events (i.e.

e. the distribution of events over periods of a cohort’s life) and changes in this calendar under the influence of certain conditions. By comparing the frequency of demographic events in different cohorts at different stages of their lives in a longitudinal analysis, one can obtain a correct idea of ​​both the impact of changes in living conditions on the dynamics of demographic processes, and of these dynamics themselves.

Disadvantages: “lag” of observation results from real processes. The full demographic history of a cohort becomes known only when it emerges from a given demographic state

ØCross-sectional analysis consists in the fact that the frequency of events is considered at a “slice” at any point in time. As a result, a conditional generation is studied, which includes people in each age interval, and during, for example, a year, some of them experience certain demographic events.

Event frequency covers the full set of durations this state. Cross-sectional analysis is the most common technique for demographic description and analysis due to the availability of information.

Most indicators are usually indicators for a conditional generation. However, there is also a drawback: with sharp changes in the intensity of demographic processes over time, it can give a distorted picture of the pattern of changes in this process.

population demographic policy

1.2 Factors influencing population dynamics

Among the factors influencing the nature of demographic development, two groups are distinguished.

The first group is formed by objective factors: established traditions, the state of the international situation, the consequences of wars, other social upheavals, etc.

The second group consists of factors whose influence is more or less controllable.

For example, progress in medical science, the quality of medical care, the cultural and educational level of the population, the standard of living in various aspects - housing security, living conditions, income, etc.

The influence of each factor is calculated separately, after which the total influence of all factors is determined.

Forecast calculations use multifactor dynamic models in which the values ​​of demographic indicators are presented as functions, and factors as arguments.

In integral form, the combined influence of all factors can be expressed as the following formula:

Дп = F(y1+y2+…yn) (1.1)

where Dp is the forecast value of the demographic indicator; y2...yn is the quantitative values ​​of various factors in the forecast period; the number of factors taken into account in the calculations.

Among the forecasted indicators, the most important are the following: the country’s population by year of the forecast period, population growth rates, population structure, its dynamics, labor potential, economic potential population, consumer potential of the population, life fund of the population, etc.

The projected population size depends on the birth rate, mortality rate, population structure, the scale and intensity of migration processes.

Fertility is influenced by gender age structure population, the extent of state assistance to young families, etc.

The dynamics of mortality depends on the quality of medical care, efficiency social protection low-income segments of the population, on the intensity of work and its conditions, condition environmental situation and etc.

The intensity of migration processes is influenced by the possibility of employment in a new place of residence, psychological readiness to move, and the ability to adapt to new conditions.

The labor potential of the population is an indicator reflecting its economic capabilities.

To determine labor potential, it is necessary to have information on the average working life of individual age groups population (or generations).

Generation length is about 30 years.

This is the period of time between the birth of father and son, mother and daughter.

Theoretically, the average working life is 44 years for men and 39 years for women.

In reality it is smaller. The reduction in actual working life is taken into account using appropriate coefficients. In addition, the calculations take into account the labor fund of the disabled population.

Based on the labor potential of the population, its economic potential is calculated. It determines the possible results of realizing the labor potential of the population and is calculated as the product of the projected labor productivity of people employed labor activity, on the forecast number, taking into account the fact that the labor productivity of people of different age groups is not the same.

The indicator of consumer potential of the population reflects the volume of food and non-food products that can be consumed by the population during the forecast period. It is calculated as the product of the norms of consumption of goods differentiated by gender, age, professional, social and other groups by the projected population of the corresponding groups.

The difference between the values ​​of economic and consumer potential expresses the economic efficiency of life of the population (Ezh):

Ezh = Opr - PP.

The population life expectancy indicator determines the number of years that different age groups and the entire population can live under the socio-economic conditions of the forecast period.

It is calculated as the product of the average life expectancy of the population of various age groups by the size of the contingent of each group.

The population is constantly increasing, in 1961

3 billion people lived on Earth, in 2011 - 7 billion people. According to demographers, by 2050 the world population will reach 9 billion people. The most people at the beginning of 2012 lived in China (1 billion 350 million), India (1 billion 222 million), Pakistan (175 million), Bangladesh (162 million), Nigeria (154 million) , Russia (143 million) and Japan (127 million).

There are two types of population reproduction:

evolutionary;

population explosion.

The first is characterized by low rates of natural growth, while the second is characterized by high and very high rates.

The population is growing at different rates across countries and regions.

In order to regulate the population, governments use demographic policy - a set of administrative, economic, social and other measures that influence natural movement population in the desired direction.

In the People's Republic of China, the policy is aimed at curbing population growth: "One family - one child", in India it is carried out according to the principle: "We are two - we are two."

The governments of many European countries are creating additional financial incentives for early marriage and childbearing.

Fertility also depends on historical traditions, religion, geographical factor, health status, standard of living. The higher the level of economic development and well-being of the population, the lower the population growth rate. To a certain extent, this is explained by the emancipation of women who want to get higher education, to make a career, to realize oneself as an individual, therefore the period for starting a family and having a child is postponed from 18-20 years to 27-30 years.

The lower the level of economic development of a country, the higher the birth rate. Every new baby in the family, especially the boy, is considered as the future breadwinner and support for his aging parents. The highest birth rates are in Africa and Latin America, and the lowest in Europe. The current age structure of the world's population looks like this: children (0-14 years old) - 34%, adults (15-64 years old) - 58%, elderly (65 years old and above) - 8%.

An important indicator of the level of socio-economic development of a country is life expectancy, which depends on many factors: climate, ecology, level of well-being, physical activity, healthcare system, rational nutrition, etc.

According to scientists, the period of human biological life can be 150-160 years, and the actual life expectancy for men is 72-74 years, for women - 70-80 years. People live the longest in Japan: men - 78 years, women - 86 years. In addition to paying attention to their health, gerontologists note optimism, emotional restraint, and goodwill in communication among the Japanese.

Russia ranks 129th with indicators of 59 years for men and 73 years for women. Swaziland is in last place - 32 and 33 years, respectively.

Socio-demographic problems of modern Russian society: state and solutions

And the main reason for the current demographic crisis is that over the past 15 years the country has been pursuing a socio-economic and political course that is absolutely alien to the national-state interests of the country and the interests of the Russian people.

This means that demographic problems can only be solved by comprehensively solving the country’s main socio-economic problems.

In other words, by creating the most favorable conditions for people to live in Russia.
current demographic problems in Russia:

- low birth rate, which has long been unable to ensure even simple reproduction of the population.
- this is an extremely high mortality rate for Russians.

Thirdly, there is low life expectancy in our country.

All together this leads to a general decline in the population in Russia.

Currently, the country's population is declining annually by almost 700 thousand people.

Among other acute demographic problems, the following should be noted:

— a noticeable decrease in the share of children and youth in the population structure;

— growth in the share of citizens of retirement age;

— more than a twofold increase in the number of disabled people over the past 13 years;

— an increase in the share of migrants, including illegal ones.

There are 13 thousand settlements in the country without inhabitants and almost the same number where less than 10 people live.

This situation is particularly dangerous for the border regions in the east of the country, where the population density in the adjacent regions of neighboring states is 100 or more times higher than the density Russian population. This means that we risk simply losing these territories.

First of all, in Russia there is no single method for solving the demographic problem. It is possible to ensure the growth of the nation only in a complex manner, raising both the economy and the social sphere, as well as qualitatively developing the infrastructure in the country.

Ways out of the “demographic hole”

First. Since deteriorating health conditions are one of the main causes of excess mortality among Russians of all ages, a qualitative modernization of the entire healthcare system in the country is needed.

Second. This is an immediate solution housing problem nationwide.

It is impossible not to notice that the lack of adequate housing directly inhibits the birth rate, especially among young people. The country must create an effective mortgage system that is accessible to everyone who wants to purchase their own home.

Its terms must be understandable to people and beneficial to them.

Third. This is a change in the income distribution system for all Russian citizens. The main task is a significant increase in the income of every Russian family. In fact, the country needs a new social policy. After all, poverty and misery remain the worst enemies of the bulk of Russian families.

Fourth. This is a change in the course of the government economic policy hampering the normal development of the nation.

Fifth. We need to revive traditions in the country healthy image life. Indeed, today the completely opposite situation is observed everywhere. Drunkenness and alcoholism have become widespread phenomena, especially in rural areas.

Sixth. It is necessary to suppress crime, restore the moral foundations of society and, first of all, the value of human life.

Thus, we have more suicides than even intentional murders. The suicide rate in our country is more than twice the world average. There continues to be real chaos on the roads in the country. Every year, a number of citizens equal to the population of a small city die in traffic accidents.
Deaths and injuries at work and at home remain extremely high. The inability of the state to suppress terrorism and organized crime and the inculcation of the cult of force and violence through the media have an extremely negative impact on the moral and psychological state of society.

If we implement the six main positions presented, then this will be enough for a radical change in the development of the demographic situation in our country: from deepest crisis to the normalization of the situation and the gradual revival of the nation.

Social projects and programs in the SR system

SR Project understood as a system of: formulated project goals; social networks created for these purposes.

institutions, physical objects, social systems protection; relevant documents developed and approved - programs, plans, calculations, estimates, etc.; calculated necessary resources - material, financial, labor, time; a set of management decisions, measures (measures) to achieve goals.

Any type of project is characterized by a life cycle, i.e.

the period of time from the moment of its appearance until the end of practical implementation. Project life cycle can be divided into phases that represent certain microcycles: concept; analysis; Problems; concept development; project development; evaluation of results; summarizing.

Execution (implementation) of social The project requires a certain set of works, which are divided into basic and supporting. TO basic work include: pre-project analysis; determination of the main goal(s); social project planning; social development

project, the result of which are documents, decisions, estimates, etc.; acceptance and approval of social project; its implementation (implementation) and making necessary adjustments along the way; summing up the results of the project. Let's look at each stage.

Pre-design analysis includes the study (research, analysis, diagnosis) of the corresponding social.

a problem that is supposed to be solved in a “project” version, for example, through the development and implementation of some kind of program. The results of the analysis are expressed in the form of a description of the situation, characteristics of conditions, social “photographs”, passports, etc. the main objective determined based on pre-project analysis and is reflected in the formulation of the goal(s).

Planning social

project consists of identifying specific developers with establishing tasks and deadlines for the upcoming development of the project. Social development project consists in determining the list of measures (events) and responsible executors, making the necessary calculations for resources, concluding contracts for the performance of work, supply of materials, equipment, etc.

The result of the development are, for example, a specific social program or plan, as well as corresponding calculations for calendar periods.

Acceptance and approval social project takes place according to a special procedure and is recorded in an official document. Performance a social project is usually provided by the existing structure.

Works, providing social

projects are grouped into the following types: informational, analytical, expert, organizational, coordination, legal, financial, personnel, motivational, logistical, supply, commercial, educational, forecasting, propaganda.

An important condition in supporting organizational and managerial work is the appointment of a head of the social project being implemented, who is endowed with powers, responsibilities and rights.

The project manager may be given the right to form “his own team” (temporary team) to perform supporting work.

Social programs

Program is a developed and implemented set of tasks and activities that have a specific content and are aimed at achieving the final goal.

Social programs- one of the types of programs. Each feature reflects one or another aspect of the program - content, level, time. Programs can be thought of as a type of project.

Various social activities may not have any connections with each other and are carried out in isolation, but if they exist, activities for the development and implementation of one or more social services. projects are combined into one social network. program.

In the management process, situations arise when one or another area of ​​activity needs to be highlighted. Then it takes shape target program, which “fits” into the existing organizational structure of management or a special structure is created for its implementation, or both occur.

The target program and the control system that ensures its implementation (execution) are called program-target control (PTC). If a program does not have a supporting structure or does not work well, then it “freezes,” i.e. its implementation is problematic. This is one of the common “software diseases”.

Social projects:“Support for culture and art”; “Support for the charity project of the Nadezhda Foundation”; “Books for visually impaired and blind children”, etc.

programs: “Social development of rural areas until 2013”; Program "South of Russia (2008 - 2013)"; "Demographic development Altai Territory"for 2010 - 2015, etc.

90 .Criteria for the effectiveness of social implementation. programs and social projects

Assessing the effectiveness of government implementation. programs includes certain principles and criteria that should reflect the conceptual provisions of program-target planning and management - management by results.

A characteristic feature of results-based management is a clear link budget funds to planned results, in contrast to normative (cost) budgeting.

World practice allows us to highlight the following advantages of program-targeted planning and result-oriented budgeting:

Funding is provided for those public goods and services, the quantity, quality, cost, time and place of provision of which best meet the needs of society and are characterized by the highest indicators of social efficiency under given resource constraints.

There is an opportunity to critically reflect on the current areas of spending funds and abandon many types of expenses carried out without proper socio-economic justification for the need for these expenses.

3. The choice of decisions is made taking into account not only immediate, but more distant consequences; responsibility increases government ministries for the final result, which means not just the provision of a certain volume of services or the performance of a certain amount of work, but also the achievement of certain quality indicators.

Regular publication of reports on the achieved results of ministries' activities allows the public to realistically evaluate the government's activities.

4. The validity of government spending decisions is improved. Significantly increases information base budget decisions made by the government. In particular, having information about how different levels of program funding can affect the social and economic efficiency of government spending has made it possible to reduce spending without cutting programs.

There is an opportunity to realistically evaluate financial condition state, thanks to a more complete picture of the resources at its disposal.

This has a special important to manage future risks, especially the risk that future generations will be burdened with undue burdens financial obligations resulting from the acceptance of implicit or unaccounted for obligations.

The transition to results-oriented budgeting involves the development of a system of indicators that would allow monitoring and evaluating the results of budget expenditures within programs developed based on results-based budgeting principles.

Basic principles for assessing implementation effectiveness government programs: independence, objectivity, ensuring maximum socio-economic efficiency, professional competence, openness and transparency.

Taking into account the existing principles for assessing the effectiveness of the implementation of government programs, we will define the main criteria for assessing the effectiveness of government programs:

Feasibility (relevance) - compliance of the project goal with the tasks that were to be addressed within the project, as well as the physical and strategic conditions in which the project was carried out, including an analysis of the quality of preparation and structure of the project - the logic and completeness of the project planning process, as well as internal logic and consistency with the project structure.

Effectiveness – how well the project activities are implemented. The fact that the results were achieved at a reasonable cost, i.e. how well the invested funds were converted into results achieved in qualitative, quantitative and time terms, as well as into the quality of the results achieved: target distribution financial resources, personnel compliance, technical compliance, temporary compliance by stages and activities.

Effectiveness - analysis of the role of the results in achieving the project goal, and how the forecasts made affected the project’s achievements: achieving the final result of the program, achieving the immediate results of the program.

Project controllability – the presence of clear functional, resource and time assignments, the presence of monitoring mechanisms and media coverage, the presence of a self-assessment system at various stages of program implementation.

The effect of the project (socio-economic effect) is the significance of the project for the wider environment, and its contribution to the expansion of (sectoral) objectives summarized in general tasks project, as well as in achieving state policy goals that stand above all other ones.

6. Sustainability - an assessment of the likelihood that the benefits and benefits of the project will continue to flow after the completion of external financing, with specific reference to factors related to the ownership of beneficiaries, policy support factors, economic and financial factors, social aspects cultural nature, gender equality, availability of appropriate technology, environmental aspects, as well as institutional and managerial capacity factors.

Systems of indicators and indicators for assessing the effectiveness of programs, at the level of which the evaluation criteria are specified, are developed in the process of working on the program, which allows you to avoid many mistakes:

The declarative purpose of the program and, as a consequence, the impossibility of assessing the effectiveness and efficiency of the program.

2. Lack of connection between the declared abstract goal and equally declarative tasks.

Program monitoring indicators, if available, are not linked into a logical system, which does not allow drawing conclusions about the progress of the program.

The process of intermediate and final evaluation of the program is extremely labor-intensive and, sometimes, impossible, which does not allow using the experience accumulated during the implementation of the program for the development of subsequent program documents.

The development of principles and criteria for assessing the effectiveness of government programs is of particular importance for avoiding waste of budget funds and monitoring the effectiveness of social and economic development programs of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

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The first attempt to assess population dynamics and answer the question of whether the Earth can feed everyone living on it is associated with the name of Thomas Malthus, who saw disastrous environmental consequences in the rapid growth of population. He came across the idea that people reproduce faster than their means of subsistence grow, and that if population growth is left unchecked, then the population will double every 25-30 years. Developing these ideas, he came to the obvious, at first glance, conclusion that the fertility of the poor is the main reason for their pitiful position in society. He published his views anonymously. He argued that the population is growing in geometric progression, while the food resources necessary to feed this population are growing in arithmetic progression. Thus, sooner or later, no matter how slowly the population grows, the line of its growth will intersect with the direct food resources - an arithmetic progression. When the population reaches this point, only wars, poverty, disease and vices can slow down its growth. In other editions of his book, Malthus proposed other ways to “slow down” population growth: celibacy, widowhood, late marriages. Overpopulation in the concept of Malthus is not only a misfortune of humanity, but a certain benefit that forces numerous and naturally lazy workers, due to competition, to work efficiently for low wages.

Followers of Malthus explain the poverty of the population not by the level of development of the productive forces, but by the “natural law of nature,” and the socio-economic backwardness of developing countries is not economic situation in the country and the world, but solely by excessive population growth. In fact, a tendency has been noticed that an increase in the means of subsistence causes an immediate increase in the birth rate, at some stage it goes in the opposite direction - an increase in the standard of living leads to a decrease in the birth rate and not only to stabilization of the population, but even to its absolute decrease.

The world population will be younger in composition than the current one, and this in itself will complicate social issues. In developing countries, youth make up almost 60% of the population, including 40% of children under 15 years of age.

So, the main prerequisite for mitigating the demographic problem is to stabilize the Earth's population as soon as possible. How exactly to do this? A partial answer to this was provided by the results of the 1990 census in China, a census of seven million people, a census in which the number of objects exceeded 1 billion (1180 million). The relevance of its results was determined by the fact that the PRC has been pursuing a demographic policy for quite some time, perhaps the most stringent in the world, stimulating families with one child. Stimulating with a variety of measures: both propaganda (posters, slogans), and technical (expanding the production of contraceptives), and economic (all sorts of benefits for one-child families in the city and countryside - tax reduction, salary supplements, etc.). Only the most serious social transformations can lead to a decisive turn. This is evidenced by the very list of countries that, while maintaining birth control, did not limit themselves to this and went to great expense, raised living standards, improved the social situation and achieved a noticeable reduction in population growth - China, Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand.

The problem of reducing population growth is global in nature. As in the world as a whole, the most important thing here is the ratio of population growth and production growth; if the latter lags behind, there cannot be an improvement in people’s living conditions; on the contrary, housing and employment problems will worsen even more. Demographic policy cannot be standard and the same for the CIS countries, since both the situation and the problems of different states are different. Sovereign states will resolve these issues themselves, the sooner the better. The demographic problem is one of the problems of the century.

The demographic crisis in developed countries has led to a disruption in population reproduction and a reduction in its population. Demographers call this process depopulation.

Demographic policy is the regulation of population reproduction, which is determined by the demographic situation in the country. Age is the main criterion in determining labor resources. The active part of the world population is 2 billion people. The level of literacy, general and special education, living conditions, nutrition, health, and the ability to perceive innovations are indicators of the quality of the population. In order to solve the demographic problem, the UN adopted the World Population Plan of Action. Progressive forces believe that family planning can help improve population reproduction. But demographic policy alone is not enough. The main way to solve the demographic problem is to change the economic and social conditions life.

The importance and significance of the global demographic problem today is essentially recognized by all states, which have realized that the rapid growth of the world population, most of which is in developing countries, backward economies and undeveloped social sphere who are unable to turn this growth for the benefit of their development. The spread of dangerous diseases - AIDS, the most powerful outbreaks of which are again in the poorest countries, leads to an increase in mortality. Uncontrolled migration and urbanization are turning from positive phenomena into negative ones. The connection between population development and nature is more fragile than previously thought. The growth of armed conflicts and the arms race, especially in developing countries, lead to enormous material costs, significantly worsening the possibilities for economic and social development and thereby for solving population problems.

It is realized that the solution to all these problems is possible only with the joint efforts of the entire world community. The creation in 1969 within the UN of a special UN Fund for Activities in the Field of Population and the holding under its auspices of three World Conferences on Population Problems contributed significantly. One of the main documents was the World Population Plan of Action, adopted in Bucharest in 1997 for 20 years. The plan emphasized that the basis for truly solving the problems of the population is, first of all, socio-economic transformations.

At the Third World Conference on Population and Development, the final document of the conference was adopted - a 20-year program of action in the field of population and development. The program examines the relationships between population, sustainable economic growth and sustainable development. It calls for the development of policies and laws that better support the family, which is the basic unit of society, and to promote its stability and take into account the diversity of its forms. Issues of fertility, mortality and population growth rates, urbanization and migration are considered. In particular, attention is drawn to the problems of “population outflow” from rural areas and appropriate solutions to these and some other problems associated with relocation to cities, forced movements of the population, caused by environmental deterioration, and the growth of armed conflicts are proposed.

Many states began to regulate population growth. The government of the most populous country, China, has set out to limit the birth rate by prohibiting families from having more than one child. It was not easy, because China loves children, but the government was inexorable: families who had a second child were subject to fines, or even evicted to remote autonomous regions. As a result, annual population growth fell from 2.8 to 1.0% and was below the world average.

Populous India also decided to follow the path of China. The slogan was put forward here: “One family, two children.” But the Indians were unable to overcome the centuries-old tradition of large families. Therefore, India's population is growing rapidly.

The policy of state birth control was carried out by Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, but in Islamic countries, where the prestige of the head of the family is determined by the number of his sons, it was even more doomed to failure than in India. And countries such as Burma, Bhutan, Malaysia, Iraq, Libya and Singapore have decided to maintain their existing high population growth and are even encouraging it. Demographic policy was least effective in African countries.

In some developed countries (France, Germany, Denmark, Belgium,

Hungary) is pursuing a policy aimed at increasing the fertility rate: families with two or more children are allocated good benefits and are provided with various benefits.

In Russia, official statements regarding demographic goals

no politics were made. The Government of the Russian Federation has only outlined measures to study the prospects for demographic development and solve urgent problems of the population. A policy of social protection of families with children is being pursued, and a system of family benefits is in place.

Thus, the danger of the modern demographic situation lies not simply and not so much in the fact that in the next two decades the world population will increase almost 1.5 times, but in the fact that new billion starving people in cities who have no use for their labor, one and a half billion disadvantaged people living below the “poverty line”. Such a situation would be fraught with deep economic, social and political upheavals both within individual countries and in the international arena.

In Russia, the demographic situation is the opposite of the global one - there is a population decline. Now Russia has begun to lose 1 million annually. Human. These figures indicate, taking into account the significant reduction in life expectancy, the extinction of Russians. The solution is seen in raising the standard of living of Russians and the state addressing the demographic problem.

The exceptional difficulty of solving population problems in the modern world is that due to the inertia of demographic processes, the longer the solution to these problems is postponed, the larger the scale they acquire. Humanity still has a chance to cope with this huge, life-threatening problem, but only if all people and each person individually fight it. To do this, you need to overcome inertia in the person himself.