What periods exist in the economy. The economy is in recession. What happens in the economy after the recession process? Global economic recession

The economy of any country, even the most developed one, is not static. Its indicators are constantly changing. An economic downturn gives way to recovery, a crisis gives way to peak growth values. The cyclical nature of development is characteristic of the market type of management. Changes in the level of employment affect the purchasing power of consumers, which in turn leads to a decrease or increase in the price of products. And this is just one example of the relationship between indicators. Since today most countries are capitalist, such economic concepts, both recession and recovery, are suitable for describing and developing the world economy.

History of the study of business cycles

If you plot the GDP curve of any country, you will notice that growth this indicator is not permanent. Every economic cycle consists of a period of decline social production and his rise. However, its duration is not clearly defined. Oscillations business activity poorly predictable and irregular. However, there are several concepts that explain the cyclical development of the economy and the time frame of these processes. Jean Sismondi was the first to draw attention to periodic crises. The "classics" denied the existence of cycles. They often associated the period of economic downturn with external factors, for example, war. Sismondi drew attention to the so-called “panic of 1825,” the first international crisis that occurred in peacetime. Robert Owen came to similar conclusions. He believed that economic decline occurs due to overproduction and underconsumption due to inequality in income distribution. Owen advocated government intervention and a socialist way of farming. The periodic crises characteristic of capitalism became the basis of the work of Karl Marx, who called for communist revolution.

Unemployment, economic recession and the role of government in solving these problems are the subject of study by John Maynard Keynes and his followers. This particular one economic school systematized ideas about crises and proposed the first consistent steps to eliminate their negative consequences. Keynes even tested them in practice in the USA during 1930-1933.

Main phases

The business cycle can be divided into four periods. Among them:

Economic recovery (revival). This period is characterized by growth in productivity and employment. The inflation rate is low. Buyers are eager to complete purchases that were put on hold during the crisis. All innovative projects quickly pay off.
Peak. This period is characterized by maximum business activity. The unemployment rate at this stage is extremely low. Production capacity is at maximum capacity. However, negative aspects are also beginning to appear: inflation and competition are increasing, and the payback period for projects is increasing.
Economic recession). This period is characterized by a decrease in entrepreneurial activity. Production and investment are falling, and unemployment is rising. Depression is a deep and prolonged decline.
Bottom. This period is characterized by minimal business activity. At this stage there is the most low level unemployment and production. During this period, the surplus of goods that formed during peak business activity is consumed. Capital from trade flows into banks. This leads to a decrease in interest rates on loans. Usually this phase does not last long. However, there are exceptions. For example, the Great Depression lasted for ten years.

Thus, the economic cycle can be characterized as a period between two identical states of business activity. You need to understand that despite the cyclical nature, in the long term, GDP tends to grow. Economic concepts such as recession, depression and crisis do not disappear anywhere, but each time these points are located higher and higher.

Properties of Loops

The economic fluctuations under consideration differ both in nature and duration. However, they have several common features. Among them:

Cyclicality is characteristic of all countries with a market type of economic management.
Crises are an inevitable and necessary phenomenon. They stimulate the economy, forcing it to reach ever greater levels of development.
Any cycle consists of four phases.
Cyclicity is due not to one, but to many different reasons.
Due to globalization, today's crisis in one country inevitably affects the economic situation in another.

Classification of periods

The modern economy distinguishes more than a thousand different business cycles. Among them:

Short-term cycles by Joseph Kitchin. They last about 2-4 years. Named after the scientist who discovered them. The existence of the data was initially explained by changes in gold reserves. However, today it is believed that they are caused by delays in firms obtaining the business information necessary for making decisions. For example, consider market saturation with a product. In this situation, producers must reduce production volumes. However, information about market saturation does not come immediately, but rather with a delay. This leads to a crisis due to the appearance of surplus goods.
Medium-term cycles of Clément Juglar. They were also named after the economist who discovered them. Their existence is explained by the delay between making decisions on the volume of investment in fixed capital and the direct creation of production capacity. The duration of Juglar cycles is about 7-10 years.
Rhythms by Simon Kuznets. They are named after the Nobel laureate who discovered them in 1930. The scientist explained their existence by demographic processes and fluctuations in the construction industry. However modern economists They consider the main reason for the rhythms of the Blacksmith to be the renewal of technology. Their duration is about 15-20 years.
Long waves They were discovered by the scientist after whom they were named in the 1920s. Their duration is about 40-60 years. The existence of K-waves is due to important discoveries and associated changes in the structure of social production.
Forrester cycles lasting 200 years. Their existence is explained by changes in the materials and energy resources used.
Toffler cycles last 1000-2000 years. Their existence is associated with fundamental changes in the development of civilization.

Causes

An economic downturn is an integral part of economic development. Cyclicity is due to the following factors:

External and internal shocks. Sometimes they are called impulse effects on the economy. These are technological breakthroughs that can change the nature of farming, the discovery of new energy resources, armed conflicts and wars.
Unplanned increase in investments in fixed capital and inventories of goods and raw materials, for example, due to changes in legislation.
Changes in prices for production factors.
Seasonal nature of the harvest in agriculture.
Growing influence of trade unions, which means an increase in wages and an increase in job security for the population.

Economic growth decline: concept and essence

There is still no consensus among modern scholars as to what constitutes a crisis. In the domestic literature of the Soviet era, the dominant point of view was that economic downturns are characteristic only of capitalist countries, and with a socialist type of economic management, only “difficulties of growth” are possible. Today, there is a debate among economists as to whether crises are characteristic of the micro level. The essence of the economic crisis is manifested in the excess of supply compared to aggregate demand. The recession manifests itself in massive bankruptcies, rising unemployment and a decrease in purchasing power population. A crisis represents an imbalance in the system. Therefore, it is accompanied by a number of socio-economic shocks. And to resolve them, real internal and external changes are required.

Functions of a crisis

Business cycle downturns are progressive in nature. It performs the following functions:

Elimination or qualitative transformation of outdated parts of the existing system.
Approval of initially weak new elements.
Testing the system for strength.

Dynamics

During its development, the crisis goes through several stages:

Latent. At this stage, the preconditions are just maturing; they have not yet broken through.
Period of collapse. At this stage, contradictions gain strength, old and new elements of the system come into conflict.
The period of mitigation of the crisis. At this stage, the system becomes more stable, and the prerequisites for economic recovery are created.

Conditions of economic recession and its consequences

All crises have an impact on social relations. During the recession government agencies become much more competitive than commercial ones in the labor market. Many institutions are becoming more corrupt, making the situation even worse. Popularity is also increasing military service due to the fact that it is becoming more difficult for young people to find themselves in civilian life. The number of religious people is also growing. The popularity of bars, restaurants and cafes is falling during the crisis. However, people are starting to buy more cheap alcohol. The crisis has a negative impact on leisure and culture, which is associated with a sharp drop in the purchasing power of the population.

Ways to overcome recessions

The main task of the state in a crisis is to resolve existing socio-economic contradictions and help the least protected segments of the population. Keynesians advocate active intervention in the economy. They believe that economic activity can be restored through government orders. Monetarists advocate a more market-based approach. They regulate the volume money supply. However, you need to understand that all these are temporary measures. Despite the fact that crises are an integral part of development, each company and the state as a whole must have a developed long-term program.

Economic recession

Economic recession is a long-term, sustainable decline in production volumes of the main types of goods and services, a decrease in business activity. Usually an economic downturn is accompanied by a decrease real income population, deteriorating living conditions and unemployment.

See also: Economic cycles

Finam Financial Dictionary.

See what “Economic recession” is in other dictionaries:

A long-term, sustainable decline in production volumes of basic types of goods and services, a decrease in business activity, usually accompanied by a decrease in real incomes of the population, deterioration of living conditions, unemployment...

Economic recession- negative dynamics economic development … A brief dictionary of basic forestry and economic terms

- (depression) See: sharp economic decline (slump). Economy. Dictionary. M.: INFRA M, Ves Mir Publishing House. J. Black. General editor: Doctor of Economics Osadchaya I.M.. 2000 ... Economic dictionary

Sharp deterioration economic condition country, manifested in: a significant decline in production; in violation of established production relations; in bankruptcy of enterprises; in rising unemployment. The result of the economic crisis is... ... Financial Dictionary

Business cycles are a term used to describe regular fluctuations in the level of business activity from economic boom to economic recession. The business cycle has four clearly distinguishable phases: peak, decline, bottom (or “low point”) and ... ... Wikipedia

Estonia's real GDP growth rate (2000 2011) Economic crisis in Estonia economic crisis in Estonia 2008 2010 ... Wikipedia

recession- A; m. 1) to fall to fall. Pressure drop. Decline in production. Decline in activity. Economic recession. Political decline. To be on the decline (at the lowest level, the lowest point... Dictionary of many expressions

- (see ECONOMIC RECESSION) ... Encyclopedic Dictionary of Economics and Law

- (ancient Greek κρίσις turning point) serious violations in normal economic activity. One of the forms of manifestation of the crisis is the systematic, massive accumulation of debts and the impossibility of repaying them within a reasonable time. The reason... Wikipedia

Books

How to overcome an economic downturn. Business Survival Plan, Bate Nicholas. All experts are unanimous in their opinion that the global economic downturn is already here, that the recession will hit all sectors of the economy and that things will get out of hand before they get better...
How to overcome an economic downturn. Business Survival Plan / Beat The 2008 Recession. A Blueprint for Business Survival, Nicholas Bate, Sergey Potapov / Nicholas Bate. 234 pp. All experts are unanimous in their opinion that the global economic downturn is already here, that the recession will hit all sectors of the economy and that things will get better before they get better...

Country However, this growth is neither constant nor smooth. The economy is subject to fluctuations, which are often called business cycles or economic cycles.

Business cycles have long attracted the attention of economists who seek not only to identify patterns of cyclical development, but also to predict future economic development.

Economic cycle call the period of time between two identical states of economic conditions.

Economic (business) cycle— ups and downs in levels of economic (business) activity over several years. This is the period of time between two identical states of economic conditions.

Cyclical fluctuations can be experienced in various ways, but the most common is the analysis of business cycles using the example of fluctuations in the value (or). In Fig. 4.1 shows a diagram of the business cycle. The trend line (or the average value of GDP over a number of years) shows the general direction of economic development over time, the GDP line shows the real fluctuations of this indicator.

Rice. 4.1. Business cycle

Economic cycles are characterized by the following important indicators:

vibration amplitude— the maximum difference between the largest and smallest value of the indicator during the cycle (distance CD);
cycle duration- the period of time during which one complete fluctuation in business activity occurs (distance AB).

By duration, cycles are divided into:

short cycles, associated with the recovery in the consumer market, with fluctuations in wholesale prices and changes in firms' inventories. Their duration is 2-4 years;
average cycles, associated with changes in the investment demand of enterprises, with long-term accumulation and improvement of technologies. Their duration is 10-15 years;
long cycles (waves), associated with discoveries or important technical innovations and their dissemination. Their duration is 40-60 years.

The theory of long waves of the business cycle by Nikolai Kondratiev

The theory of long waves was developed in detail by an outstanding Russian economist Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev(1892-1938) in a number of works, including the monograph " World economy and its conditions during and after the war" (1922) and report " Large cycles economic situation" (1925). N.D. Kondratiev from the end of the 28th century on the basis factual material identified three large waves:

I. from the late 80s - early 90s. XVIII century until 1844-1851;
II. from 1844-1851 from 1890-1896;
III. from 1890-1896 approximately 1939-1945

If we continue the main trends outlined by N.D. Kondratiev, we can distinguish the fourth and fifth waves:

IV. from 1939-1945 from 1982-1985
V. upward wave from 1982-1985.

The main role in changing cycles, according to N.D. Kondratiev, scientific and technical innovations play a role. Thus, for the first wave (late 18th century), inventions and changes in the textile industry and iron production played a decisive role. Growth during the second wave (mid-nineteenth century) was primarily due to construction railways, the rapid development of maritime transport, which made it possible to develop new economic territories and transform agriculture. The third wave (beginning of the twentieth century) was prepared by inventions in the field of electrical engineering and was based on the mass introduction of electricity, radio, telephone and other innovations.

Continuing the analysis of N.D. Kondratiev, it can be assumed that the fourth wave (40s) is associated with the invention and implementation synthetic materials, plastics, electronic computers of the first generations, and the fifth (80s) - with the massive introduction of microprocessors, achievements of genetic engineering, biotechnology, etc.

It should be noted that in real life, one cycle overlaps with another, and several short cycles occur within longer oscillations.

Cycle phases

Cycles differ in duration and intensity, but all cycles go through the same phases:

There are 4 stages (or phases) in the structure of the cycle:

Climb. In the recovery phase, national income grows from year to year, declines to the natural level, and the amount of real capital grows, but this growth slows down. Also, due to increased consumer and investment demand, prices and rates increase.
Boom. The boom phase ends with a boom in which there is super-high and overloaded capacity, the price level, wage rate and interest rate are very high. Investments in production are almost non-existent due to the high cost of attracting resources.
Recession. Production and employment are declining. Due to decreased demand, prices for goods and services fall. Investments become negative because at this stage of the cycle, firms not only do not make new capital investments, but there is an increase in idle capacity. Many companies suffer losses or go bankrupt.
The bottom of the recession. The rate of decline is slowing down and at this stage stabilizing. The fall in production and rising unemployment are reaching their maximum values. Prices are minimal. Only the strongest firms survived. The potential for future growth is accumulating - with low rates percent the volume of investment increases. The transition to the recovery stage occurs after a certain period of time, when investments begin to bring returns.

The four phases of the cycle considered may vary in duration or depth. So, for example, against the background of an upward long wave of the Kondratiev cycle, medium and short cycles will have a longer and more intense rise and a short-term slight decline. In a situation of a downward long wave, on the contrary, the declines will be deep and long, and the rises will be insignificant and short-lived.

It should be noted that the behavior of macroeconomic indicators does not coincide with that described above for all cycles. There are situations when, against the backdrop of a decline in production and rising unemployment, prices also rise. This situation is called stagflation and most often occurs during sudden changes in the economic situation. Stagflation was observed in the 70s. V developed countries during energy crises caused by rising oil prices. Another example is Russia in the 90s. after the start of economic reforms.

Crisis as the most important element of the cycle

The phase of economic downturn is also called the phase of crisis and depression. This stage is of particular importance for the economy, since after the crisis the composition of enterprises is renewed, the strongest and most efficient firms survive, new inventions appear and new ones are opened. economic opportunities. However, the crisis is also a major social upheaval - people lose their jobs, their incomes are reduced, and the standard of living of the population is reduced. Therefore, preventing or mitigating crises is one of the most important tasks of the state.

The cyclical development of the economy began to clearly manifest itself starting from the 19th century. The first cyclical crisis of overproduction occurred in England in 1825. In the 19th century. cyclical crises occurred in individual countries, they did not coincide in time and were caused by internal reasons for the development of countries or global non-economic events (in particular wars).

The first crisis called global, which began in the USA and spread to other capitalist countries in 1929 - 1933, was called the Great Depression. Among its causes were the deformed structure of the economy after the First World War, the disruption of traditional world economic ties, and the monopolization of the economy. The crisis manifested itself in a significant drop in production, high unemployment, and a significant reduction in world trade. It covered all sectors of industry (especially ferrous metallurgy, mechanical engineering, mining, maritime transport, etc.) and agriculture. The general nature of the crisis reduced the ability of countries to maneuver at the global level. The consequences of this crisis were overcome only as a result of the recovery caused by the Second World War.

After the Second World War, a rapid economic recovery began, associated with economic recovery and overcoming the destruction caused by the war. However, the restoration potential was exhausted quite quickly, and already in 1957-1958. A new global crisis broke out, affecting the United States the most. For the first time in the post-war period, total exports fell finished products, a series of structural crises began (in the raw materials industries, shipbuilding, etc.).

The reason for the next crisis(1974-1975), one might say, is random, not subject to the laws of economic development. The impetus was the OPEC cartel raising prices for the oil they exported fourfold. Many developed countries are facing severe shortages of energy resources. Oil importing countries were forced to reduce its consumption or look for substitutes and introduce energy-saving technologies. National output fell while prices rose, i.e. a situation of stagflation was observed.

In 1980-1982 a new crisis has broken out, the main victims of which were developing countries. Majority developing countries during the second half of the twentieth century. went through the stage of transition from the agrarian structure of the economy to the industrial one. Because they own funds To achieve this goal was not enough; they were forced to attract foreign capital. By the beginning of the 80s. external debt developing countries turned out to be too large, and many of them were unable to pay not only the principal amount of the debt, but also the interest on it.

90s turned out to be years of stagnation for most developed countries - production developed at a slow pace, fluctuations in unemployment and inflation levels were insignificant. However
90s became years of upheaval for countries of Eastern Europe and the USSR, which ceased to exist in 1991. The deep transformation crisis in Russia, which was a consequence of the transition from a planned method of farming to a market one, affected all sides economic life. During the reforms, industrial production decreased by approximately 60% (many economists talk about deindustrialization of the economy), the country experienced a period of high inflation, property inequality among citizens increased, and more than 30% of the population found itself below the poverty line.

To summarize the above, several features of cyclical development can be noted:

With development national economies and increasing international interdependence, crises are turning from local (national) into global ones.
The time period between crises is shortening, i.e. the period of cyclic oscillations decreases.
The factor of randomness is added to the patterns of cyclical economic development.
Systemic (or transformational) crises do not fit into the generally accepted cycle scheme. As a rule, they are caused by institutional transformations occurring not only in economic, but also in other spheres of public life.

Cycle theories

Multiplier-accelerator model

This approach assumes that economic cycles reproduce themselves. Once started, they, like a swing, make endless oscillations. Only the reason for the fluctuations here is not external, but lies in the very essence of the cycle.

The mechanism of fluctuations is described as follows: an increase in demand for firms' products causes an increase in investment and, as a consequence, gross domestic product. Moreover, it increases by a greater amount than investment due to the effect. Further, an increase in GDP requires new investments both for the reproduction of increased capacities and for further development. The intensity of this process is determined by the size of the accelerator. At some point in time, all available resources become exhausted and become saturated. In this situation, the reverse process begins - investments are reduced, as a result, GDP is reduced, and there is a further decrease in investment according to the accelerator principle. Having reached a certain point, the process reverses.

This theory is difficult to apply to explain real economic cycles, since in life cyclical fluctuations are not regular; there are other factors that influence the system from the outside. Next theory tries to take into account the already mentioned factor of randomness.

Pulse-propagation mechanism

This model assumes that the economy is subject to random but recurring disturbances, shocks, or shocks. They can affect demand (for example, the mood of entrepreneurs or buyers, who may become optimistic or pessimistic; the behavior of the government), as well as supply (for example, an all-time low or high harvest, natural disasters, important inventions and discoveries, etc. .). Favorable shocks can cause GDP to increase, while unfavorable shocks can cause it to contract.

The list of potential shocks is endless. These shocks take the economy out of its current state and cause a chain reaction (Figure 4.2). The shocks in question, or impulses, change the conditions of demand or supply in the economy. After experiencing a random shock, national output begins to fluctuate according to the pattern described in the previous section until the next shock occurs. The discovery that economic cycles are generated by purely random factors was made in the late 20s and early
30s Russian economist Evgeniy Slutsky and Norwegian economist Ragnar Frisch, the latter of whom was awarded the Nobel Prize.

4.2. Pulse-propagation mechanism

Monetary concept of economic cycles

In the two models discussed above, cycles are caused by some change in demand or supply. In contrast to this monetary concepts relate fluctuations in economic activity to changes in the monetary sector.

The starting point of the economic cycle, according to this theory, is the growth in the supply of credit from banking system. As a result, the interest rate decreases, investments increase, and, consequently, the aggregate demand. This creates a recovery phase, which is accompanied by an increase in the price level. Over time, the economic recovery stops due to two main factors. Firstly, the excess reserves of commercial banks are reduced (their ability to issue loans is reduced), secondly, the country’s foreign exchange reserves are reduced, since imports increase due to high prices (the outflow of foreign currency), and exports are reduced (the inflow of foreign currency is reduced). These factors create a shortage in the money market, and the interest rate begins to rise and the volume of investment begins to decline. The recession phase begins: production and employment decline, the nominal wage rate decreases, the price level decreases, net exports increase, foreign exchange reserves and the monetary base increase. This sets the stage for a new increase in bank credit.

Evolutionary theory

The evolutionary theory of business cycles is the youngest and still least developed in economic science. There is a very limited number of works on this topic (theories of J. Schumpeter, K. Freeman, S. Glazyev, etc.).

4.3. Dependence of GDP on the emergence and development of macrogenerations

The basic idea of evolutionary economics is the concept of economic natural selection, when the development of the most competitive economic entities occurs due to the displacement of other, weaker ones from the economic space. If the macro-level of the economy is represented as a set of economic subsystems, in each of which “natural selection” occurs, then these subsystems can be called macrogenerations. Macrogeneration can be interpreted as a part of the means of production that produces part of GDP and includes a certain technical level of production in various industries National economy. Its lifespan is limited in time, i.e. it is born, exists for a period of time and dies. The relationship between macrogenerations and GDP is presented in Figure 4.3.

The cyclical development of the economy can be represented as a change in macrogenerations. The emergence of a new macrogeneration, usually due to the development scientific and technological progress, causes economic recovery in the country. Old, already existing macro-generations are gradually disappearing from economic life, causing a reduction in production.

From the perspective of evolutionary economics, the following features of cyclical development can be distinguished:

each new macrogeneration most often appears during periods of decline in production, or more precisely, at turning points from recession to recovery;
during the growth of new macrogeneration, as a rule, there is an economic recovery, a slowdown in the growth of macrogeneration is accompanied by a cessation of recovery;
from the moment of the emergence of a new macrogeneration until the birth of the next one, the GDP trajectory goes through both a rise and a decline phase, i.e. full economic cycle.

Other cycle theories

The cyclical development of the economy has long attracted the close attention of economists. The above theories do not exhaust the entire list of explanations of cycles. Other theories include the following:

Theory of periodic solar activity. The idea is that the sun greatly influences agricultural yields. In the event of drought and crop failure, agricultural production is reduced and spreads to related industries and beyond.
Model of interaction between savings and investment. The accumulation of savings by the population leads to a decrease in the interest rate, the volume of investment increases, and national production grows. Further, due to an increase in demand for investment, the interest rate rises, which reduces the attractiveness of investment and reduces national production.
Psychological theories. These theories consider people's behavior depending on the economic situation. People can have positive or negative assessments of future events and act according to their predictions. If economic agents expect the onset of a boom phase, they increase their activity, but if they predict a recession, then, accordingly, they reduce business activity.

Business cycle concept represents fluctuations in economic activity, that is, the alternation of economic recession and recovery. These contractions and expansions of the economy are periodic, but not regular, that is, they are not strictly cyclical.

There are four in duration type of economic cycles:

short-term ( Kitchin cycles) - 2-3 years;
medium term ( Juglar cycles) - 6-13 years;
Kuznets cycles ( Kuznets rhythms) - 15-20 years;
Kondratiev cycles- 50-60 years.

Phases of the economic cycle.

Each type of cycle (especially medium-term Juglar cycles) has four active cycle phases:

Rise (or revival) - growth in production and employment, inflation rate is low, introduction of innovative technologies.
Peak (or top) - the highest stage of economic recovery. Unemployment is closest to the level full employment, all resources (material and labor) are used to the maximum. Inflation may increase, and saturated markets increase competition.
Recession (or recession) is a reduction in production, investment and business activity. Rising unemployment. Lasts from 3 months or more.
A bottom (or depression) is the lowest point in economic production and employment. Usually this phase cannot be long, although there are exceptions (the ten-year Great Depression in the USA).

Causes of economic cycles economists usually associate it with the real economic situation in the country. Business cycle theory is that the reason for the downturns and upswings of the economies of industrial countries is associated with the emergence of new technologies, changes in prices for resources and other real factors. In agricultural countries, the cause of recession and recovery is the harvest or failure of the harvest, in short, these are also real factors. Another type of real factors is force majeure ( natural disasters, war, revolution, etc.).

Recession- the most “subtle” phase of economic cycles, because under certain negative circumstances it can turn not into depression, but into crisis. Although, perhaps, the depression phase and the concept of economic crisis are not entirely correctly reflected in the theory of economic cycles.

Economic crisis.

Economic crisis- this is a drop in production on a significant scale, accompanied by an imbalance of supply and demand for goods and services.

Economics is not an exact science (like mathematics), but also not a humanitarian science (like philosophy with its multiple theories and hypotheses). Definitions of different terms by different authors in economic theory may vary. Sometimes even within the same school (textbook, article). The same term may have different definitions, or different terms may have similar definitions. This can mislead the one who studies the material, so the only way out in such a situation is to rethink the source material yourself. The concept of the phase of recession, depression and economic crisis has been viewed differently at different times. Economist Murray Rothbard became interested in this problem of classification and definition. Once upon a time, when there were no such definitions, sharp declines in the economy were simply called panic. The prolonged period of panic began to be called depression (naturally, we remember the source - the depression of 1929-1939 in the USA). Then the term depression began to cause people (pardon the pun) to panic. And in 57-58, during the next crisis, “we defeated the depression” and were already dealing with a recession. Economists also did not like the concept of recession; they began to call it a harmless phase of the economic cycle; and people after ’58 experienced several “downturns,” but not a single recession. Later, the recession was also replaced by more tolerant “slowdowns” in economic growth, “deviations” in economic development. I hope my irony is clear, as well as the fact that all this time people have been faced with the same phenomenon - a crisis. No matter what you call a janitor, even a broom operator, it won’t make it any cleaner. We will return to this issue a little later.

Basic signs of economic crisis:

damage resulting from economic activity;
the previous model of activity is no longer effective;
a decision must be made immediately, otherwise the consequences will be catastrophic;
there is a chance for a new stage of development (sometimes illusory).

Types of economic crisis - financial crisis(the growth of fictitious capital outpaces the growth of real capital, the fall in prices of final assets) and energy crisis(limited resources, rising prices for energetic resources, problems with mining and development of new deposits).

An economic crisis can also have positive aspects, because in theory it can update the existing political or ideological situation in society for the better (or maybe for the worse - we know of several such examples).

Let's return to the problems of the terms “crisis” and “depression”. Based on the above, it is most prudent to call the economic crisis the worst variant of the bottom phase (depression) in economic cycle. Simply put, a crisis is the same phase of the cycle as depression, only more protracted and with worse economic consequences. Moreover: with this consideration, the crisis finds its place in economic theory, as a phenomenon not spontaneous, but natural, depending on the economic policy of the state during a recession. This definition of a crisis excludes it as a spontaneous phenomenon. And this is true, because a crisis can and should always be predicted and prevented.

For our compatriots, the word “crisis” has long become almost familiar. We hear it quite often in the news - after all, the economic crisis in Russia happens even more often than once a decade (if we take the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union).

However, not everyone knows exactly what the causes of the economic crisis in Russia are and how this threatens the ordinary citizen.and when it will end.IQReview I have collected up-to-date information and answers to similar questions in one place.

What is an economic crisis and what are its symptoms?

To summarize: an economic crisis is a set of events during which significant and sharp drop in production.

T This situation has a number of signs, including:

Rising unemployment rate.

Significant depreciation of the national currency.

Imbalance of supply and demand in various markets for goods and services.

Decrease in the solvency of citizens.

Decrease in GDP (or cessation of growth - if before this GDP was steadily increasing).

Decrease in the pace and volume of production in various industrial sectors.

Outflow of foreign capital.

Reducing the cost of raw materials.

The listed “symptoms” are only the main ones - in fact, the list of problems in the economy is much longer. They usually manifest themselves sharply, comprehensively (several points at once), and in a significant volume. For example, if the unemployment rate in the country increases by 5% over a year, then this is bad, but far from a crisis. But if in six months National currency depreciated by 30%, GDP fell, several thousand enterprises went bankrupt, characteristics in various fields economy is already a crisis.

Classification of crisis situations

Since a crisis is a large-scale phenomenon, it can be divided into various categories according to a number of signs:

Partial or sectoral. It is characterized by the fact that it covers a separate sector of the economy without leading to significant problems in other areas.

Cyclical. Characterized by the fact thatoccurs regularly (repeated at approximately equal time intervals). Typically, its causes are the obsolescence of industrial equipment and technologies, which leads to higher prices for products. To overcome such problems, a reorganization of the production structure is required.

Intermediate. It is similar to cyclical, but differs in that problems do not appear so acutely and sharply. Also, the intermediate crisis is not regular - it does not repeat itself at approximately equal time intervals.

Crisis situations can also be divided by localization. They can occur either in a single region, in a single country, in several countries (neighboring), or in large quantities countries The global economic crisis is the last option, when an economic decline is observed in several major countries at the same time.

Modern classification of economics

According to the classification of NBER (National Bureau economic research, USA), state modern economy consists of only 4 phases:

Economic cycle

Peak (when the economic situation is at its most comfortable level).

Recession (when stability is disrupted and the economy begins to steadily deteriorate).

Bottom (lowest point of decline).

Revival (overcoming a low point, followed by a way out of a crisis situation).

N A little history: when have serious economic crises ever occurred?

To confirm the words that the global economic crisis is a regular phenomenon, here is a list of the largest economic collapses:

1900-1903. The crisis began suddenly in most European countries, a little later - and in the USA. This economic crisis in Russia (in those years - still Russian Empire) began even earlier - in 1899. Moreover, in Russia it developed into a protracted depression, which lasted about a decade - until 1909.

1914-1922, First World War. The crisis erupted due to military action that stopped or seriously affected the operations of thousands of companies in participating countries. The problems began even before the outbreak of hostilities - when the situation began to heat up and panic began in the financial markets.

“Price Scissors”, 1923. The collapse that affected the economy of the “young” USSR. It arose due to the lack of balance between the prices of industrial and agricultural goods.

"The Great Depression", 1929-1939. It had the strongest impact on the USA and Canada, to a lesser extent on France and Germany, and was also felt in other developed countries. The reasons for this collapse have not been precisely established; there are several versions. It broke out after the stock market crash in the United States, on Wall Street (this is where the expression “Black Monday” came from).

1939-1945, World War II. Naturally, such large-scale military actions led to the decline of the economies of all participating countries and affected other states.

Oil crisis (or oil embargo), 1973. Began due to the refusal of a number of countries (Arab states that are members of OAPEC, Egypt, Syria) to supply oil to Japan, the USA, the Netherlands, Canada, and the UK. The main objective of this action was to put pressure on these countries for supporting Israel in the military conflict against Syria and Egypt. This economic crisis in Russia (USSR at that time) did not bring negative consequences. On the contrary: oil supplies from the Union have increased significantly, and its cost in 1 year has increased from $3 to $12 per barrel.

The collapse of the USSR, the end of the 80s and the beginning of the 90s. The situation that led to the collapse of the Union developed under the pressure of several factors: sanctions from the West, decreased oil prices, lack of sufficient quantities of consumer goods, high level unemployment, military operations in Afghanistan, general dissatisfaction with the ruling elite. The collapse had a strong impact on the countries of the Union, and to a lesser extent on neighboring states (due to the deterioration or complete cessation of cooperation).

Russian crisis, 1994. After the collapse of the Union, the economic situation of the Russian Federation was in a deplorable state, and from 1991 to 1994 the situation steadily worsened. The problems were caused by errors in state property, a loss economic ties, outdated technologies and equipment in production.

Russian default, 1998. Evolved due to the inability to pay government debts. The precondition was the crisis in Asia, a sharp drop in oil prices and a sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate against the ruble (from 6 rubles to 21 rubles in just less than a month). The way out of the situation was protracted and difficult, and lasted for several years (it took different periods for different areas of the economy).

Asian financial crisis, 1997-1998 (one of the reasons for the Russian default). To one degree or another, it affected all states of the planet. It developed due to the very rapid growth of the economies of Asian countries, which is why they began to experience a massive influx of foreign capital. As a result, this led to “overheating”, sharp fluctuations on financial market and the real estate market, and in the future - their destabilization and fall.

2008-2011. The scale and consequences of the economic crisis are comparable to the Great Depression. The collapse developed sharply in the United States, starting with the financial crisis. Having spread to the eurozone, it lasted even longer - until 2013. The crisis had little impact on the Russian segment, and its main consequences were overcome back in 2010.

Current crisis (since 2014). It was reflected in many countries by a sharp decline in the cost of oil. Sanctions that violated the economic relations between Western countries and the Russian Federation.

Economic situation in Russia: a brief history of the current crisis

Since the last major crisis for Russia has not yet ended, we should dwell on it in more detail.

Economic situation Russia

One of the first reasons for its development was the “Ukrainian events”, during which the Crimean peninsula passed from Ukraine to Russia. Also Russian Federation Since the first half of 2014, it has been regularly accused of sending troops into the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine. There is still no evidence of these accusations, but they still continue to be voiced.

To put pressure on the “aggressor,” Western countries (the United States and a number of European countries) introduced sanctions against the Russian Federation. Restrictions affected the industrial and financial sectors, which led to a sharp deterioration in the situation due to the fact that a number of companies lost the opportunity to receive “cheap” loans abroad and buy foreign equipment (raw materials, technologies).

At the same time, oil prices began to decline rapidly. From 2012 to mid-2014 they were in the range of $100-115 per barrel, and already in December 2014 they reached $56.5 (the lowest point since 2009). After this, the price of oil did not stabilize, but fluctuated regularly, and when it fell, it reached $27.5 per barrel (for the first time since 2003).

Due to the fact that the Russian economy was largely dependent on oil exports, this quickly led to a deterioration in the economy in all its sectors (in addition to the deterioration that arose due to sanctions).

Now (at the beginning of 2017) the country from the economic crisis gradually comes out. The price of oil has stabilized and has been in the 50-57 range since the fall of 2016$ per barrel. Along with the cost of raw materials, the national currency has also stabilized - about 55-60 rubles per dollar.

How do such problems threaten the average citizen?

The crisis is not only felt by companies in various sectors of the economy. It has no less influence on the ordinary citizen. An unfavorable situation leads to the following consequences:

Wages decrease (or slow down, or their growth stops).

Purchasing power decreases (due to rising prices, decreasing wages, and the desire to save).

We have to give up the usual range of products and entertainment.

Opportunities for receiving medical care, education.

Jobs are being cut (this can both lead to dismissal if a person has a job, and makes it more difficult for those who are looking for one).

The selection of goods in stores is decreasing (not always, not critically, and not in all areas).

Add to this other - intangible - problems. For a population whose standard of living is falling, their mood worsens—for every citizen individually. If the situation drags on, social tension may increase: trust in the government decreases, citizens more actively express their dissatisfaction (online, at rallies).

Causes of the crisis

There are many theories and explanations of the causes of crises, but one of the most common is the Marxist version. Proposed by Karl Marx (1st volume of Capital, 1867), it quite accurately describes the essence of problematic situations in the economy. Karl Marx noted that until the end of the 18th century (before the Industrial Revolution, when production began to rapidly develop in many countries), there were no regular cycles of booms and busts in the economy.

According to this theory, crisis is an integral part of the capitalist economy. No matter how stable, reliable and balanced economic system state - crisis situations have happened in it anyway, are happening and will continue to happen. They can be “tamed,” their impact can be weakened, and they can be made more rare, but they cannot be completely eliminated.

Distributing free food to the unemployed during the Great Depression (USA)

According to the author, this is explained by the fact that any capitalist (owner of an enterprise) strives to increase profits. To do this, you need to sell as many goods as possible at the lowest cost of production. That is, the volume of production is reached to the maximum.

However, no one controls the balance between total cost manufactured goods and real salaries population (which always receives less than it produces - otherwise the capitalist would not make a profit). As a result, over time, this leads to the production owner’s profit falling.

To avoid this, he begins to take active steps that are aimed either at increasing the volume of goods or at further reducing production costs. When this does not help, layoffs begin at enterprises until they go bankrupt. As a result, unemployment is growing, and competitors are trying to take over the vacated market space, who will then face the same problems.

To summarize, every new economic crisis arises due to a lack of balance between the production and consumption of goods and services.

If we evaluate more narrowly, then among the causes of problems we can highlight:

Uncontrolled growth of inflation.

Focus on one sector of the economy and insufficient attention to other areas.

Political instability.

Errors in management.

Obsolescence of production.

The production of uncompetitive products that are inferior to imported goods, and at the same time cost no less (or not much less) than them.

Ways out of the crisis

TO Each crisis situation is individual, and therefore there is no single “recipe” for overcoming it. However, we can summarize several basic steps that the authorities need to take to solve the problem:

Diversification budget funds: creating the maximum number of ways to generate income. In this case, due to a fall in production in one industry (as in oil prices now in Russia), the economy as a whole will suffer less.

Creation of jobs - to increase employment of the population. This is useful for the budget because more funds will come in in the form of taxes, and, in addition, the population will spend more, stimulating production. To create jobs, it is necessary to maintain a conducive environment for doing business.

Containing inflation.

Financial control: for exchange rate, behind the interest rate.

Informing the population and enterprises: about the current situation, forecasts and prospects, recommendations for overcoming problems.

Updating the industrial sector: equipment, technologies.

Support for key sectors of the economy, if necessary - adjustment of budget distribution (reducing costs for less important sectors and increasing costs for more important ones).