The population in the Russian Federation is 142 million people.(as of April 2009). Over the past 7 years, Russia has lost 2 million people and moved from seventh to ninth in the world among largest countries by population.

The current demographic situation in Russia is characterized by depopulation, a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in mortality, an aging population, a reduction in medium duration life, problems in the employment of the population. The demographic factor influences the formation of labor potential, largely determines the development and distribution of the country's productive forces.

Population is a complex set of people living within certain areas. It is characterized by a system of such indicators as the size and density of the population, its composition by sex, age, nationality, language and education.

The presence of a certain number of people is one of the important conditions for the material and social life society. Russia is a relatively sparsely populated country. The population density of the Russian Federation is 8.3 people / km 2, which is 14 times lower than in the European Union, with 79% of the population living in the European part of Russia.

Population dynamics

In 2009, for the first time in 17 years, since 1993, Russia's population stopped declining, stopping at 141.9 million people. In the 1990s even large immigration could not stop this process, the natural population decline was huge (0.96 million people in 2000 alone) due to a sharp jump in mortality (one and a half times) and a sharp drop in the birth rate (by one third). But emerging in the early years of the XXI century. a decrease in the size of natural population decline (to 0.249 million people in 2009 due to a partial improvement in mortality and birth rates), coupled with a migration increase that began to grow again, made it possible in 2009 to maintain the population with a possible prospect of its stabilization in the coming years (if judged by the average version of the forecast of the Federal State Statistics Service on the estimated population until 2030).

As can be seen from Table. 12.1, in Russia the birth rate has not so much fallen (it is already close to the pre-reform level and higher than in most European countries), but the mortality rate has greatly increased and continues to remain at a very high level. It is provoked by high stresses that the population continues to experience. According to data from a survey of the adult population conducted by Rosstat in the summer of 2008 (that is, even before the crisis began), 72% of respondents experienced a feeling of great or very great anxiety about the uncertainty of their situation (although in 1998 this number was 95%), 45% of respondents assessed the level of their material well-being below the poverty line (when at best there is only enough money for basic food and clothing), 44% were afraid of losing their jobs, 27% experienced a feeling of loneliness.

Table 12.1. Demographic indicators of Russia

						2015, medium version of the forecast (in brackets - low and high versions of the forecast)	2025, medium version of the forecast (in brackets - low and high versions of the forecast)
Population, million people (at the end of the year)						141,7 (139,6-142,6)	140.7 (132.6-145,5)
Natural increase/decrease in population. million people						0.348 (-0,688-0.211)	0,639 (-1,181-0.217)
Birth rate, per 1000 people						11,9 (10,9-12,5)
Mortality, per 1000 people						14,4 (15,8-14,0)	13,9 (17,0-13,2)
Migration growth, million people
Life expectancy at birth, years						69,8 (67,9-70,3)	72,4 (68,2-75,0)
Including: men						63,4 (61,8-64,4)	66,7 (62,3-70,7)
						75,7 (74,3-76,2)	77,9 (74,4-79,3)
Average annual population of working age, million people						82,7 (82,2-83,0)	76,7 (74,5-78,2)

Strong socio-economic stresses cause anomie, primarily in the most active part of the population - men (especially in the group from 30 to 50 years old). Anomia is manifested, in particular, in neglect of one's own and other people's life. As a result, the working-age population has a very high mortality rate from external causes and chronic diseases. So, more than 30% of mortality falls on external causes - these are accidental poisonings (mainly with low-quality alcohol), suicides, murders, traffic accidents, etc. High mortality of the working-age population from cardiovascular diseases (it is 3-4 times higher than in European countries, and it accounts for 55% of the causes of death) - this is mainly a consequence of the fact that the proportion of those who take care of their health (through diet, refusal bad habits, medical prevention) does not exceed 25% of those examined by Rosstat.

The Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025, approved at the end of 2007 by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation, states that the goals of demographic policy are to stabilize the population by 2015 at the level of 142-143 million people and create conditions for its growth by 2025 up to 145 million people, as well as improving the quality of life and increasing life expectancy by 2015 to 70 years, by 2025 to 75 years. In fact, the Concept orients the country towards the high version of Rosstat's forecast of the estimated population.

Population aging

If Russia late XIX century was a country with a young population - with a high proportion of children and a low proportion of the elderly, then after 1959 the proportion of older people in total strength population. But when compared with other countries with low birth rates, it turns out that Russia's population is not the oldest. In 1990, Russia ranked 25th. This is not surprising, since Russia, firstly, is at the stage of the aging process, when the proportion of the middle-aged population practically does not change and aging occurs due to a decrease in the proportion of children, and secondly, due to low life expectancy, not all people live to old age.

Most high share adolescent children in the Republics of the North Caucasus, in the national formations of Siberia and the Far East.

The lowest share of the young population is in the North-West of the country.

Urbanization of the population

— growth in the share of the urban population

On this moment There are 1096 cities in Russia, of which 11 cities are millionaires:

Millionaire cities Russia:

1. Moscow (10,500 thousand people)
2. St. Petersburg (4 581)
3. Novosibirsk (1 398)
4. Yekaterinburg (1 335)
5. Nizhny Novgorod (1 280)
6. Samara (1 135)
7. Kazan (1 130)
8. Omsk (1 129)
9. Chelyabinsk (1,093)
10. Rosnov-on-Don (1,049)
11. Ufa (1,032)

Quantity urban population in Russia is 73% .

79% of the inhabitants live in the European part of Russia.

Russians make up 80% of the country's population.

Cities that changed their name after the 90s:

• St. Petersburg (Leningrad)
• Nizhny Novgorod (Gorky)
• Yekaterinburg (Sverdlovsk)
• Samara (Kuibyshev)

Factors affecting the population

Let's look at the factors that affect the population.

The dynamics of the population of any state consists of natural and mechanical movement population.

Vital movement of the population

Vital movement of the population- this is a change in the population under the influence of natural processes (fertility and mortality), which determine the change of human generations.

fertility

The birth rate in Russia is 12 per thousand, which means 12 people per thousand people (data for 2009) (in 2002, 10 people per 1,000 people.)

Behind last years the situation has improved somewhat, which is associated with the implementation of an active demographic policy by the state. However, the annual natural population decline remains quite high, and the migration population growth has significantly decreased.

Factors affecting fertility:

• standards of living
• national characteristics
• woman's level of education
• state of the country's healthcare system

Most high level birth rates in the republics of the Volga-Vyatka, North Caucasus and Ural economic regions.

The lowest birth rate is in the Northwestern and Central economic regions.

Mortality

Mortality in Russia is 15 people per 1000 people. Mortality among Russian men and women of working age is significantly higher than the European average.

formed in Russia special model of mortality:

• Huge gap in the average life expectancy of men and women (13 years). On average, men live up to 61 years, women up to 74 years.

• Decreased life expectancy

• Changes in the structure of causes of death:

1. Diseases of the digestive system
2. Cancer diseases
3. Territorial factor
4. Poisoning, AIDS, suicide

In Russia, the region with the highest mortality rate is the Pskov region.

Mechanical population movement

Mechanical population movement- movement of people for permanent or temporary residence due to natural, economic, political and other reasons.

Internal movements do not change the population of the country, but change the population of individual areas. Currently, internal migration covers 80% of the total migration turnover.

Internal migration It happens:

• permanent (moving to a permanent place of residence)
• seasonal (moving depending on the season)
• pendulum (regular, usually daily, movement of the population from one locality to another to work or study and back)
• And also formed a characteristic of the northern regions of the western and Eastern Siberia rotational

external migration subdivided into:

• Immigration (entry of citizens into the country)
• Emigration (departure of citizens from their country to another country for permanent or long-term residence)

According to the demographic forecast of Rosstat, the natural population decline will increase and from 2025 will exceed 400 thousand people annually, a slowdown in population decline is predicted only closer to the 2030s. International migration (according to the forecast, the influx of migrants will be less than 300 thousand people a year) will not be able to compensate for the decline in the population in the future.

In December 2017, the head of the Ministry of Labor and social protection Maxim Topilin, that the birth rate in Russia is insufficient to ensure population growth, and in the coming years the situation will only worsen, as the number of women of childbearing age in the country will decrease by a quarter or even more.

“The number of women of reproductive age by 2032 or 2035 will decrease by 28%. It is not possible to assume that in this situation the absolute number of births will remain at the level of 1.8-1.9 million, unfortunately," Topilin said.

Birth rate in Russia in 2017 was the lowest in the last 10 years

(Video: RBC TV channel)

Ramilya Khasanova, a researcher at the RANEPA Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, explained to RBC that the birth rate will decline in the next 15 years due to the fact that most current mothers were born in the 1990s, when the birth rate was low.

“The number of women who are potential mothers is small, and therefore the number of births is also falling,” the expert explained.

Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Oreshkin, attributed the demographic situation in Russia to the number. The Minister noted that the fact that Russians born in the very late 1990s, when the maximum decline in the birth rate was recorded in the country, will lead to a sharp reduction in the number of able-bodied population.

“The generation is very small, so the negative dynamics in terms of the working-age population will continue. The situation in terms of demographics is one of the most difficult in the world: we will lose about 800,000 people of working age every year due to the demographic structure,” Oreshkin said.

In response to the challenge of the low birth rate, the President on the "reset" of the country's population policy. Since January 1, two new monthly allowance. At the birth of their first child and until they reach one and a half years, families are provided with monthly payment, equal to the regional subsistence minimum per child (on average in 2018 it is 10.5 thousand rubles). From the maternity capital funds (the program has been extended until the end of 2021), families at the birth of a second child can receive monthly payments. Both payments are provided to families whose per capita income does not exceed 1.5 living wage in the region. In addition, for families with a second and third child, a special subsidy program mortgage rates(the cost of servicing the mortgage in excess of 6% per annum will be borne by the state).

Khasanova assessed the measures taken by the state as positive. " Maternal capital contributed to a slight increase in the number of third and second births. It will increase the opportunity for young families to climb out of poverty. The allowance accepted for the first child will most likely not be the same effective way increase in the number of births, but will affect the calendar of births: those who were going to give birth in the next few years, hurry up, ”she said.

The Russian labor market is losing its attractiveness for migrants, without them it will not be possible to make up for the decline in the country's working-age population, experts from the Center for Strategic Studies (CSR) warn in the report "Migration Policy: Diagnostics, Challenges, Suggestions", published on January 26. The total decline in the working-age population by 2030 will be from 11 million to 13 million people, experts say. There are no reserves for the growth of internal migration, and in order to attract foreign labor, according to experts, new migration policy measures are needed - work visas, lottery systems similar to the American Green card, as well as contracts for the integration of migrants.

One of the main indicators of any state is the demographic situation. After the collapse of the USSR, the population gradually but steadily declined, and only a few years ago began an uncertain and slow, but still growth.

According to the analytical report of the Higher School of Economics "The demographic context of raising the retirement age", by 2034, life expectancy in retirement after raising the retirement age will reach 14 years and 23 years for men and women, respectively. But we have to live until 2034.

How the demographic situation is now, what problems the country has, and what the authorities are doing to solve them - below Reconomica will give detailed answers.

The demographic situation in Russia in 2018 - official data

First we present general basic information about demographic situation in the country for 2018:

The population of Russia as of January 2018, taking into account the Crimea: 146 million 880 thousand 432 citizens (9th largest in the world, after China, India, USA, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Nigeria and Bangladesh).

Number of migrants, permanently or most of the year in the Russian Federation: about 10 million (as of 2016), of which about 4 million are illegally in the country. Of these, about 50% are located in Moscow or St. Petersburg.

Distribution by "mainland" division: about 68% of citizens live in the European part of the country, with a density of 27 people per 1 km². The rest lives in the Asian part of the country, with a density of 3 people per 1 km².

Distribution by types of settlements: 74.43% live in cities.

Basic data about settlements: 15 cities in the Russian Federation have a population of more than 1 million, 170 cities - more than 100 thousand.

Number of nationalities: more than 200. The main part - Russians (81%), Tatars (3.9%), Ukrainians (1.4%), Bashkirs (1.1%), Chuvashs and Chechens (1% each), Armenians (0.9%).

The ratio of pensioners and able-bodied citizens: 1:2.4 (that is, there are 24 working people for 10 pensioners). According to this indicator, the Russian Federation is among the ten worst countries. For comparison: in China it is 3.5 (35 workers per 10 pensioners), in the USA - 4.4, in Uganda - 9.

Separation by gender(as of 2016): about 67 million 897 thousand men and about 78 million 648 thousand women.

Separation by age: pensioners - about 43 million (as of 2016), able-bodied - 82 million (as of 2018), children under 15 years old inclusive - about 27 million, or 18.3% of the total number of citizens (as of 2017).

Official forecast of the population of the Russian Federation until 2035

On the FSGS website ( federal Service state statistics) there is a demographic forecast until 2035. The numbers in it are:

Worst case: the number will gradually decrease, by several hundred thousand a year, and in 2035 it will be 137.47 million people.

Neutral option: the number will fluctuate around the current level, with a gradual decrease during 2020-2034. In 2035, the population will be about 146 million citizens.

Optimal option: the number will gradually increase, mainly due to migration growth, on average by half a million a year. In 2035, the population will be about 157 million citizens.

Tables of births, deaths and natural increase of the country's population since 1950

To begin with, let's give specifics - statistics of births, deaths and natural increase on years:

So it was in the 20th century under the USSR and immediately after its collapse:

And this is how the situation looks like in the 21st century in modern Russia:

These figures make it easier to understand the demographic situation in Russia in different years.

Fertility and measures to increase it: demographic policy in Russia in brief

One of the main demographic problems is the low birth rate.

As you can see in the table above, the birth rate sagged in the perestroika nineties, and then gradually recovered. However, the problem still remains: in comparison with mortality, not enough children are still born, and in the last 23 years (since 1995) the natural increase was positive only in 2013-2015. And even then it was insignificant for a country with such a population.

The authorities have repeatedly stated that increasing the birth rate is one of the main tasks of the state. However, having a child, even one, is a big financial burden on the family. Even the minimum expense will be no less than 5-7 thousand rubles a month, and this is up to adolescence (first for diapers, food, then for clothes and toys). And some parents support their children even longer - until they receive higher education(conditionally up to 20-23 years). It turns out that even if a family wants to have a child, it may simply not pull it financially, and therefore postpones this decision.

To make life easier for families with children and stimulate the birth rate, the following financial support measures are being taken in the Russian Federation:

: a one-time allowance of 453 thousand (for 2018), which can only be spent on certain purchases (so that parents do not waste money on their own needs). The mother capital program appeared in 2007, and so far it works until 2021. It is possible that it will be extended again, because it has already been worn several times.

: A monthly payment due to a family whose total income falls short of the regional subsistence level.

1. : a measure of support for motherhood.

In addition, the state is working on infrastructure.

Solving the problem with kindergartens and nurseries. According to current projections, by 2021, all children aged 2 months to 3 years should have places without queues and other problems. For this, new kindergartens are being built in all regions. In total, it is planned to create more than 700 new facilities of various capacities.

Construction of perinatal centers. And bearing a child, and giving birth, and the first months after them - require high-quality medical care. It is also planned to solve it by building new modern centers.

Under discussion:

prenatal certificate: a one-time payment of 100 thousand, which is due simply for the fact that a girl becomes pregnant.

Revision of the child benefit system. Now everyone receives them - both the poor and people with a normal income. It is proposed to redistribute funds, allocating them only to the poor.

Benefits for families in which women give birth before the age of 30.

It is possible that all these projects will be rejected - so far they are "raw", and decisions on them can hardly be expected in the near future.

How many children should a family have in order for the demographic situation to improve?

According to rough estimates - 2 children per family. At the moment (mid-2018), this indicator is a little lacking: it is 1.7. At the same time, there is a view on this problem from the side of national politics: it is necessary that more Russians be born, since the eastern territories of the country are poorly populated, but there is also a more global view: while Russia lacks people, the planet suffers from overpopulation!

Extinction or overpopulation?

We are accustomed to consider the growth of the population of the Russian Federation as one of the goals domestic policy because that's what they tell us on TV. But imagine that the birth rate has risen sharply. This will lead to the development of Siberia and the Far East, deforestation and pollution of lakes. Everyone knows that the Siberian taiga is the lungs of the planet. Russia remains one of the few reserve territories on the planet where there are still plenty of resources for humanity. This should not be forgotten.

Futurologists say that in just a couple of generations, global wars for resources caused by overpopulation could begin. So does the state need to stimulate the birth rate with all its might and provoke overpopulation in a single country right now? Do we want our children to suffer from public policy"one family - one child", how did the Chinese suffer for a long time?

Mortality in Russia

In "counterbalance" to fertility, mortality is another important indicator demographic situation. The country needs to strive to reduce this number, since not all citizens live to an average lifespan.

The main causes of early deaths:

Diseases(professional or not). Most people die from cardiovascular diseases: heart attack and stroke. In the Russian Federation, mortality from them is about 5 times higher than in Japan and Canada. In total, more than 900 thousand people died from heart disease in 2016 (recall: almost 1.9 million died this year). The second largest cause is oncology (in 2016, almost 300,000 citizens died of cancer), followed by cirrhosis, diabetes, pneumonia, and tuberculosis.

External factors(traffic accidents, accidents, crimes leading to death).

Voluntary retirement. According to WHO, in 2013-2014, there were almost 20 suicides per 100,000 citizens. In 2015, this figure was 17.7, in 2016 - 15.4, in 2017 - 14.2. In the world, this figure is one of the largest among most civilized countries.

Indirect factors affecting the increase in mortality are:

Bad habits. The use of drugs, alcohol and smoking is not a direct cause of death (except perhaps when a person drinks himself to death, or dies from a drug overdose). But all these substances harm the body, leading to diseases, or leading to fatal crimes (accidents, murders while intoxicated, murders by drug addicts for the sake of a dose).

Improper nutrition. In our country, eating fatty, fried, high-calorie and sweet foods is considered normal. Salads with a lot of mayonnaise, fried potatoes, fast food, buns and all kinds of sweets, instant noodles - this is the basis of the menu of millions of Russians of different sex and age. The systematic use of junk food for a long time leads to diseases of the gastrointestinal tract, liver, heart, weakened immunity, and excess weight.

Hypodynamia(sedentary lifestyle). It leads to excess weight, weakening of the musculoskeletal system, general weakening of the body and immunity.

Polluted air in cities. In any major city the air is far from healthy. The composition and concentration of impurities are different everywhere, depending on the region and the enterprises that are located in it.

Vitamin deficiency(from vegetables and fruits).

Low popularity of a healthy lifestyle. Only since the end of the "zero" healthy lifestyle lifestyle and sports began to gain massive popularity. But still, not all citizens are drawn to this.

Migration and problems associated with it

Since only external migration affects the population (when people move between countries, and not within the state between regions and cities), we will only consider its indicators.

Issues related to migrants are often raised not only in the media, but also on various unofficial resources - forums, social networks, blogs. They lie in the fact that the bulk of visitors are residents of poorer Asian countries and southern republics (Dagestan, Azerbaijan). For the average Russian, such visitors are usually presented in a negative light because:

take jobs;

lower wages(in some places it is easier to hire a visiting Tajik who is ready to receive 2 times less than a local Russian);

often settle in a large number of people in 1 apartment, spoiling the lives of neighbors at least in the entrance.

That's not to mention other "little things" like often aggressive behavior, rising crime rates, and unfamiliar cultural practices that may be unpleasant to the indigenous population).

Another thing is Russian-speaking migrants of Slavic nationality (primarily Belarusians, Moldovans and Ukrainians). At first glance, you cannot distinguish such a visitor from a Russian, he does not always agree to work for a penny, customs and culture are almost the same.

However, if for an ordinary citizen the nationality and behavior of visitors matter, and they are not always liked, then for the state the influx of new citizens is a positive factor. The reasons are:

The number of taxpayers is increasing.

The deficit is decreasing work force . Migrants are most often people of working age who get a job in Russia. Moreover, most of the visitors are engaged in low-skilled and low-paid work, for which it is more difficult to find local performers.

There is an influx of capital. Visitors spend money inside the country, buy real estate here, open a business.

The "rejuvenation" of the nation is taking place. As already mentioned, the majority of visitors are young people and middle-aged people.

Now some numbers:

As of early 2018, about 10 million live in the Russian Federation foreign citizens . About half of them are in the country illegally. Most often, foreigners go to Moscow and St. Petersburg, followed by Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk and Yekaterinburg.

About 80% of all migrants come from neighboring countries(and those who go to work, and those who move to the Russian Federation for permanent residence). Of these, about half are Asians (mainly from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan).

In total, almost 258,000 foreigners received Russian citizenship in 2017. Of these, 85 thousand Ukrainians, 40 thousand Kazakhs, 29 thousand Tajiks, 25 thousand Armenians, 23 thousand Uzbeks, 15 thousand Moldovans, 10 thousand Azerbaijanis, 9 thousand Kyrgyz, 4 thousand Belarusians and 2.5 thousand Georgians. In 2016, 265 thousand people received citizenship, in 2015 - 210 thousand.

The reverse side of the coin is emigration (when Russians leave for other countries for permanent residence). In 2017 alone, about 390 thousand people left the Russian Federation (that is, about 1.5 times more than they arrived. And in total, from 2013 to 2017, the outflow of the population amounted to about 2 million people.

The main problems of emigration:

Young people leave first: most of the emigrants are between the ages of 24 and 38. And these are people who could increase the birth rate, not to mention other factors.

Leaving mostly highly qualified personnel: engineers, scientists, IT specialists, experienced entrepreneurs, doctors, builders. Both established professionals and students in demanded specialties are leaving.

A considerable part of emigrants has above-average income, and when they leave the country, they withdraw their funds from the country.

Due to the outflow of wealthy and qualified citizens, the state gets the following problems:

capital outflow(and exported more money than the state budget receives from visitors: in 2017 alone, about $ 31.3 billion was withdrawn from the Russian Federation);

staff shortage is growing in important and narrow specialties (if it is easy to find a janitor from visitors, then it is easy to find an experienced surgeon for the hospital who moved to Germany because of high salary- the task is very difficult);

escalates demographic problem (because young people are emigrating).

To summarize: external migration for the Russian Federation is more of a problem than an advantage. Despite the large influx of visitors, the country still loses more than it receives - both in terms of the number of emigrants and the losses (material, intellectual) that they cause by their departure. Low-skilled foreigners who are ready to work cheaply come to replace specialists with a narrow education and experience. In the long run, both the state and ordinary Russians will suffer from this.

According to official statistics, since 2010 the state has seen a slow but steady increase in the number of citizens. By January 2016, 146,544,710 people permanently resided in the Russian Federation, which is 0.19% more than it was on January 1, 2015. It would seem that the figures indicate that the Russians have managed to overcome more than a 20-year demographic crisis. But is everything really so rosy?

General increase in population

The high level of the overall increase in the number of Russian residents last year was due to two factors: positive natural population growth and a significant increase in the number of migrants (32.7 thousand increase in birth rate against 245.4 thousand migration). That is, population growth in the state was ensured not so much by an increase in the birth rate and a decrease in deaths, but by a significant influx of migrants. Rosstat notes that last year's migration growth was the smallest since 2000. The news of 2016 is not too comforting either. As of May 1, 2016, 146.6 million people live in the country, but natural losses are still compensated by the migration flow.

natural increase

The ratio of the number of births and deaths in different places in Russia differs significantly. By the beginning of 2016, a positive natural increase in the number of inhabitants was noted in 44 regions, while in 41 more deaths prevailed over births. A positive natural increase in the population is traditionally demonstrated by the republics of the North Caucasus, the Siberian, Far Eastern and Ural districts. And no less stable negative growth is shown by some regions of the Northwestern and Central federal districts. The saddest demographic statistics are in the Pskov, Tula, Tver, Tambov, Novgorod, Smolensk, Leningrad and Oryol regions.

If we turn to the data on births and deaths in dynamics, we see strange results and directly opposite indicators. For 2015 and 2016, in most regions with a high rate of natural increase (in the North Caucasus, the Far East and Siberian districts) marked a significant decline in the birth rate. At the same time, in regions with negative natural growth data, there is a demographic surge. According to the Sulakshin Center, by 2017, in the lagging territorial units of the Central and North-Western districts, a positive natural increase in living citizens is planned.

Distribution of the population of Russia by age

In the 2010s, there has been an increase in the number and population of cities, and rural population RF. A positive increase in the number of rural residents has been observed for the first time since 2004 (although the number of rural residents is still quite low: there are three townspeople for every rural resident in the Russian Federation).

Rosstat figures confirm that the number of people of unemployable age is increasing in the country. This is due to two factors:

• an increase in the birth rate (in recent years, the number of children from 0 to 14 years old has increased);
• increase in average life expectancy (65.9 for men and 76.7 years for women).

This situation is extremely undesirable for the development of the Russian economy. A decrease in the working-age population will naturally push the country towards a crisis in the economy. And Rosstat’s forecasts on this matter are disappointing: Russia is waiting for a slight but steady decline in the percentage of the working-age population until 2024–2029, after which this trend will have to change in a positive direction.

What lies ahead for the Russian Federation?

Despite the optimistic mood of the majority of representatives of power structures, who speak of the end demographic crisis in Russia, experts are increasingly mentioning that the country is on the edge of a demographic hole. There are several reasons for concern:

1. Reducing the number of women of reproductive age. This phenomenon is associated with low level birth rates in the 1990s.

2. Gradual decrease in the number of marriages. Since 2011, the number of marriages per thousand citizens has been steadily declining, and if in 2011 this figure was 9.2, then by 2015 it fell to 7.9, and this leads to a decrease in the birth rate.

3. The growth in the number of nuclear families, in which the relationship between spouses is of paramount importance, and not the desire to have and raise children.

4. Difficult economic situation, preventing many families from having children.

According to Rosstat, the current situation will lead to the fact that by the end of 2016, due to negative natural growth, the country's population will begin to gradually decline. The most optimistic forecast options warn that up to 2030, there is no need to expect positive changes in the level of natural increase.

Slow improvement of current demographic indicators aggravated by the gradual deterioration of the overall demographic structure

Rosstat published demographic data for 2015. The absolute results of births, deaths and migration are practically the same as last year, which, in turn, have changed little for four years in a row. Russia is still in a state of “demographic bifurcation”: the slow improvement of current demographic indicators is aggravated by the gradual deterioration of the overall demographic structure. And although the situation remains unfavorable in the long term, there are also positive trends. About the controversial demographic results of the year - in the material.

General results

As of January 1, 2016, the population of Russia amounted to 146.520 million people, having increased by 252 thousand over the year, of which 33 thousand is a natural increase, and almost 220 thousand is migration, where more than half is provided by Ukraine. Natural increase, that is, the excess of the number of births over deaths, has been recorded in Russia for the third year in a row, but in relation to general population it is statistically insignificant. In this sense, it is more accurate to assume that in Russia for four consecutive years the absolute birth rate is equal to the death rate, which, in the context of a deterioration in the structure of the population, means a gradual improvement.

Overall results for federal districts are presented in the table, which shows that the North Caucasian Federal District stands out sharply for the largest natural increase, and the Central Federal District for the largest migration. As for the total change in the population in percentage terms, the population of the Crimean Federal District increased the most (1.39%) due to migration, half of which fell to Sevastopol. In general, it is the fastest growing subject of the Russian Federation in terms of population. As of January 1, 2014, 385 thousand people lived in Sevastopol, the population increased to 419 thousand, that is, by 9%, over the two years of their stay in Russia.

Of the other subjects, the most rapidly increased over the year (more than 1%, in descending order): Ingushetia, Tyumen region without AO, Chechnya, Krasnodar Territory, Nenets AO, Moscow and Moscow Region. During the year, the most lost were: Jewish Autonomous Region, Magadan, Tambov Regions, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, Komi, Arkhangelsk Region without Autonomous Region, Kurgan, Oryol, Tver Regions, Chukotka Autonomous District.

The analysis shows that the population increases in non-Russian regions due to high birth rates, and in Russian regions due to migration. Unfortunately, where the population is declining, everything is exactly the opposite: in the Russian regions there is a decrease due to low birth rates, and in the “non-Russian” North and the Far East - due to negative migration. This dynamic has existed for many years: the lowest birth rate is in the Russian regions, and the highest is in the national republics. This is not only the Caucasus, but also Tyva, Altai, Yakutia, Buryatia, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and YNAO. This fact, largely explained by the attitude to their original traditions, is a powerful demographic resource that is undeservedly underestimated.

fertility

In fairness, it should be recognized that the situation is slowly but changing. Since the beginning of the 2000s, a significant increase has been achieved, although in one year it is almost imperceptible. Nevertheless, it is interesting how the birth rate has changed by district over the year. Note that the birth rate per 1000 population is given in relation to the average annual population, and the total birth rate (not yet published by Rosstat) was found from the dynamics of its relationship with the total birth rate in 2013-2014.

In 2015, the two most problematic districts showed the best birth rate growth, although it is in them that it remains the lowest, especially in the Central Federal District. In the North Caucasian Federal District, the birth rate has fallen significantly, and in general since 2008 it has practically not grown there, fluctuating around 2, and in Chechnya and Ingushetia over the past 5-6 years it has completely decreased. This is important because the repeated clichés about the GROWTH of the birth rate in these regions turn out to be lies. In fact, the birth rate in them is high, but it is NOT growing, and the Caucasus provides the highest birth rate per 1000 population due to the fact that there the highest percentage young population.

In the rest of the districts, it almost did not change, almost everywhere it slightly increased. In Russia as a whole, the total fertility rate increased to 1.78. Recall that it shows how many children, on average, one woman will give birth to while maintaining the current birth rate at all ages. That is, it is a current indicator, a kind of current “demographic speed”. For the reproduction of the population, it must be at least 2.2. Taking into account the fact that at the turn of the 1990-2000s it was 1.2, half of the way has been passed to the cherished milestone. Just or already - it depends on the point of view.

Yes, the current birth rate is insufficient, but if the demographic dynamics of 2002 had been preserved in Russia, then today 133 million would live in the country (with the same migration), and only 1.2 million children would be born annually. Thus, over 14 years, due to the improvement in demographic indicators, the population of Russia has grown by 11 million. We repeat that this is excluding migration and excluding Crimea. And every year 1.9 million are born in the country. Such a big difference is due to the fact that not only the birth rate has increased, but the death rate has also decreased.

This process continued in 2015. The demographic structure of Russia is deteriorating: the young population is declining, while the old population is increasing. Therefore, if the total fertility rate is kept constant, the absolute birth rate will decrease by about 2% annually. That is, in other words, in order to maintain the absolute number of births, it is necessary that the total fertility rate constantly increase by about the same 2% annually. This is what happened in 2015. The fact that the total fertility rate increased from 1.75 to 1.78 made it possible to repeat the absolute result of 2014.

To achieve a real increase in the absolute number of births, an even greater increase in the relative birth rate is needed. Yes, from 2012 to 2015. it increased from 1.69 to 1.78, but no more Russians were born, as the number of women of childbearing age is declining and this “ate” the entire increase. This unfavorable trend is long-term. Therefore, it is not worth counting on a significant increase in real birth rates in the coming years. The main thing is to maintain at least the level that has been achieved. The fact that so far this has been successful, on the whole, indicates a positive trend in the growth of the relative birth rate.

In relation to the average annual population, the birth rate in 2015 increased the most in Kaluga region(7.5%), Sevastopol (6%), Nenets Autonomous Okrug (5%), Tula Region and St. Petersburg (4.5% each). Note that in countryside The total fertility rate in Russia exceeded 2.2 back in 2012, and in 2015 rose to almost 2.4. the main problem– low birth rate in cities (1.6), where 74% of the population lives.

Mortality

In 2015, the decline in mortality continued, but due to the increase in the proportion of older ages, the absolute number of deaths remained almost unchanged. As in the case of fertility, in order for absolute mortality to remain constant under these conditions, the relative must decrease, especially at older ages, which give the largest number of deaths. This is what happens, manifesting itself in the growth of such a value as life expectancy at birth. This is the average number of years that newborns will live if the current mortality rate continues at each subsequent age. In 2015, this indicator increased due to men, whose life expectancy increased by 0.4 years, up to 65.7 years, according to preliminary data. In women, it has not changed and is 76.5 years. The difference of 11 years is still one of the problems of Russian demography.

Migration

According to official data, over the year, the migration increase to Russia amounted to 252 thousand, which is slightly less than in 2014, and almost all of it fell on the countries former USSR. With most countries, there is a slight decrease in migration growth, but the increase from Ukraine increased by 1.7 times, exceeding 130 thousand. Also, there is a negative migration exchange with Uzbekistan, where 20 thousand more departed than arrived.

The migration growth of Russia's population decreased by about 13% over the year due to the increased number of those who left the country. This is mainly due to the return to the permanent place of residence of migrants who were previously registered at the place of stay for a period of 9 months or more. In general, the current level of migration growth has been recorded for the fifth year in a row, and since 1998 it has not exceeded 320 thousand people.

Marriages and divorces

In 2015, the number of both marriages and divorces decreased, which is most likely due to the difficult economic situation. It is known that in these conditions marriages are concluded less often, but they are less often and break up, as people avoid changes in life as much as possible. Marriages were concluded by 5% less. At the same time, the reduction in the number of marriages is a long-term trend associated with a decrease in the proportion of young people.

It is clear that this has a direct impact on fertility, so in the near future, support for second, third and subsequent births will become essential. This is the only resource by which the birth rate can be maintained. As in the economy as a whole, extensive measures have been exhausted, and intensive measures are indispensable. So far, this has been successful in terms of fertility, as the proportion of second and subsequent children is growing, but it should be noted that this was achieved at the expense of those women who are over 30. Their birth rates have increased by about 3 (!) times in 15 years. Therefore, a decrease in the number of new marriages YET does not lead to a decrease in the number of births. But the problem remains, and in the near future it will inevitably make itself felt. Moreover, the birth rate of women under 25 has not increased at all since the early 2000s.

As for divorces, they decreased by 12% over the year, but there are still more than 50 divorces per 100 marriages. True, in 2015, the absolute minimum of divorces over the past 10 years (612 thousand) was recorded and the minimum for the past 16 years was repeated per 1,000 population (4.2). However, their huge number is still Russia's misfortune. In fairness, it should be said that this problem was inherited by Russia from the late USSR (more precisely, the RSFSR), where in the 1980s there was a similar level of divorces. Unfortunately, the number of divorces has steadily increased since the Khrushchev pogrom, increasing per 1000 of the population from 0.5 after Stalin's death to 4 by 1980, that is, EIGHT times in 30 years!

The number of divorces is decreasing very slowly and has no direct connection with the economy, since the divorce rate grew monstrously in the calm, stable and prosperous late USSR, and it almost did not decrease in the fat 2000s. Apparently, the strength of the family is associated primarily with the moral state of society, its mobilization charge. After all, a family that requires sacrifice and exertion of strength can hardly feel normal in an atmosphere of decay, which does not oblige or call for anything. It is significant that at the end of the 1920s in Russia there was already a peak of divorces (almost 3 per 1000), which was overcome by Stalin's mobilization.

conclusions

Russia continues to be in a state of “demographic bifurcation”, when a gradual improvement in most indicators is superimposed on a simultaneous deterioration in the demographic structure, which occurs due to inertia. In this regard, 2015 was a continuation of current demographic trends.

Simply restoring Soviet indicators is no longer enough, and often wrong. In addition to divorces, this applies to the birth rate, which fell below the level of simple reproduction back in the 1960s, and only due to the accumulated demographic potential of Soviet society did its population grow. Now the situation is even more difficult, and the struggle is for every tenth of the demographic indicators. Invisible to the eye, they will give millions of lives in years. What will be the future of Russia is decided not only by the "tops", but by each of us.