Definition of the term anti-inflationary policy

Causes of inflation

- Inflation demand and costs

Kinds inflation

Phillips curve

Consequences of inflation

Anti-inflationary policy states

Fiscal policy

Monetary policy

Monetarism

Natural rate hypothesis

Adaptive Expectations Theory

Rational Expectations Theory

Economics of supply

Anti-inflationary strategy

Anti-inflationary tactics

Anti-inflationary policy In Russian federation

Features of the anti-inflationary process in Russian Federation

Stages of formation and model of anti-inflationary policy in RF

Situation and prospects for combating inflation in 2008

Conclusion

Definition of the term anti-inflationary policy

Anti-inflationary policy includes two fundamentally different areas: - regulation of aggregate demand; - regulation of the total offers. Proponents of the first direction are Keynesians; The supporters of the second are monetarists.

The most general, traditional definition of inflation is the overflow of circulation channels by an aggregate money supply in excess of the needs of trade turnover, which causes depreciation of the monetary unit and, accordingly, an increase in commodity prices.

However, the definition of inflation as channel overflow money circulation depreciating paper money cannot be considered complete. , although it is manifested in the growth of commodity prices, cannot be reduced only to a purely monetary phenomenon. This is a complex social phenomenon generated by imbalances in reproduction in various fields market economy. Inflation is one of the most pressing problems modern development Russian economy.

The Market Language Dictionary gives the following definition: " - process overflow of monetary circulation channels, expressed in depreciation money, growth prices on goods and services and a decline in the real living standards of workers."2) The Dictionary of Banking and Exchange Lexicon defines inflation as "excessive expansion money supply aggregate, accompanied by rising prices and a reduction in demand."3) "inflation is an excessive increase in the number of people applying for country paper money, causing their depreciation,” is how the interpreter of the Russian language S.I. Ozhegov describes this term.

Summarizing all these, in general identical, definitions, we can say that inflation is a monetary phenomenon expressed in a stable and continuous rise in prices caused by excess money supply in circulation. In other words, this problem arises in a situation where the cash flow of businessmen and consumers ( offer money) exceeds the real need (for money). Obviously, in this case, subjects of economic relations will try, if possible, to get rid of the excess money that has arisen, increasing their expenses and reducing cash savings. This will cause an expansion in demand, higher prices and a decrease in the purchasing power of money - the negative consequences of incorrect monetary policy states fraught with significant economic and social upheaval.

In general, the roots of such a phenomenon as inflation always lie in the mistakes of the government politicians. The reasons may be a significant budget, incorrect measures for issuing securities and much more, individually and in combination.

However, inflation, although manifested in rising commodity prices, cannot be reduced only to a purely monetary phenomenon. This is a complex social economic phenomenon, generated by imbalances in reproduction in various spheres of the market economy. Inflation, having a long and rich history, and now represents one of the most pressing problems of modern economic development in many countries of the world.

In the modern world there are many problems that we can rightfully call global. Inflation is one of them. It has existed since the days economic development humanity, but fully manifested itself relatively recently, immediately affecting the economies of all countries: developed and developing. The entire progressive economic thought of mankind has made a lot of efforts to combat it, but inflation was not completely defeated, because... new and more complex forms appeared.

As an economic phenomenon, inflation has existed for a long time. It is believed that it appeared almost with the emergence of money, the functioning of which is inextricably linked.

The term inflation (from the Latin inflatio - inflation) first began to be used in North America in the class struggle of 1861-1865. and designated process swelling of paper money circulation. In the 19th century the term was also used in Britain and France. The concept of inflation became widespread in economic literature in the 20th century after the First World War, and in Soviet economic literature since the mid-20s.

The most general, traditional definition of inflation is the overflow of circulation channels with the monetary aggregate in excess of the needs of trade turnover, which causes depreciation of the monetary unit and, accordingly, an increase in commodity prices.

However, the definition of inflation as the overflow of monetary circulation channels with depreciating paper money cannot be considered complete. Inflation, although it manifests itself in rising commodity prices, cannot be reduced only to a purely monetary phenomenon.

This is a complex social phenomenon generated by imbalances in reproduction in various spheres of the market economy. Inflation is one of the most pressing problems in the modern development of the Russian economy.

Causes of inflation. The most important inflationary reasons for rising prices include the following:

Disproportionality - imbalance of government costs and income - the so-called Shortage state budget. Often this deficit is covered through the use of the “printing press,” which leads to an increase in the money supply and, as a consequence, inflation.

Inflation expectations are the occurrence of self-sustaining inflation. The population and economic entities are getting used to a constant increase in the price level. The population demands an increase wages and stocking up goods in anticipation of their imminent rise in price. Manufacturers are afraid of price increases from their suppliers, while at the same time factoring into the price of their goods the increase in prices they predict for components and thereby rocking the inflation flywheel.

Demand and cost inflation. The theories developed by Western economists highlight demand inflation and cost inflation as alternative concepts. These concepts examine the various causes of inflation.

Demand-side inflation means an imbalance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply on the demand side. The main reasons here may be the expansion of government orders (military and social), an increase in demand for means of production in conditions of full and almost 100% utilization of production capacity, as well as the growth wages as a result of concerted actions of trade unions. As a result, there is an excess of money in circulation relative to the quantity of goods, and prices rise. In such a situation, the excess in circulation of means of payment encounters limited goods.

Demand inflation can be illustrated graphically

An increase in the money supply aggregate for the above reasons within a short period of time shifts the aggregate demand curve to the right (AD1 and AD2), and if the economy is on the intermediate (2) or classic (3) segments of the aggregate supply curve, then this leads to an increase in prices, which represents demand inflation.

Cost inflation means an increase in prices due to an increase in production costs. The reasons for the increase in costs may be oligopolistic pricing practices and the financial policy of the state, rising prices for, actions trade unions, requiring an increase wages and etc.

Cost inflation can be depicted graphically. A shift in the aggregate supply curve to the left (AS1 and AS2) as a result of the above reasons reflects an increase in costs per unit of output, prices increase, and real output or real NNP decreases.

Since a general increase in prices leads to a decrease in real income population, then inevitable as requirements trade unions increase the nominal wages of workers, and the state policy of compensating for monetary losses from inflation. A vicious circle arises: rising prices trigger demands for higher prices. income population, which, in turn, leads to a new jump in prices, as costs rise businessmen for wages. At the same time, successful government anti-inflationary policy assumes that income indexation programs cannot be completely comprehensive for all segments of the population or the same for workers in different sectors of the economy.

In practice, it is not easy to distinguish one type of inflation from another; they interact closely, so wage growth, for example, can look like both demand inflation and cost inflation.

It should be noted that in no economically developed country were simultaneously observed in the second half of the twentieth century. for a long time complete , free and price stability. Prices rose constantly, and from the end of the 60s - even in periods economic downturns and stagnation, when underutilization of production could reach significant proportions.

But a rise in prices in a crisis phase is an incredible phenomenon for the cycles of the 19th - first half of the 20th centuries. This phenomenon is called stagflation, which means an inflationary rise in prices in conditions of stagnation, stagnation of production, and economic collapse.

The most widely used inflation indices are indices price increases, including indices consumer prices (calculated for the group of goods and services included in the consumer basket of the average urban resident) and producer price indices (includes three groups of goods: final goods not sold to consumers, intermediate goods, and raw materials prepared for further processing).

Types of inflation. Depending on the nature of inflation and the rate of growth of inflation processes, three types of inflation are distinguished: moderate inflation, galloping inflation and hyperinflation. Moderate inflation is characterized by relatively low rates of price growth - 10% or a little more per year. Galloping inflation, unlike moderate inflation, has a higher rate of price growth - from 20 to 200% per year. Hyperinflation is characterized by a huge rate of price growth. Which translates into monthly growth of over 50% and annual growth of four figures. Depending on the rise in prices for different product groups, it is customary to distinguish between balanced and unbalanced inflation. Balanced inflation is expressed, as a rule, by a proportional change in prices for different goods. Unbalanced inflation determines the change in prices of different goods in relation to each other in different proportions. Depending on the degree of prediction, inflation is divided into expected (predicted price increases) and unexpected (unpredicted price increases). Based on the degree of spread of inflation processes, it is customary to distinguish local (within individual countries) and global (covering a group of countries or entire regions) inflation.

The forms of inflation are varied, but they are based on either external causes or internal ones. External reasons include:

Rising prices on world markets;

Reduction in revenues from foreign trade;

Negative foreign trade balance;

Negative balance of payments.

Internal causes of inflation are usually associated with:

Deformation of the economy towards backwardness industries consumer sector and hypertrophied development industries heavy industry and especially military engineering;

State monopoly on emissions, external trade and government spending; monopolist largest corporations, firms, companies to set prices in markets that are not consistent with their own costs;

The monopoly position of trade unions on regulating wage rates for their members by concluding labor agreements with entrepreneurs, including the latter’s obligation to raise wages in accordance with rising inflation;

The degree of influence of inflationary processes on the economy is largely determined by the characteristics of inflation and depends on the degree of forecasting of inflationary processes and the degree of adaptation economic institutions to these Processes. This allows Expenses to be divided into Expenses of Expected Inflation and Expenses of Unexpected Inflation. Expenses of expected Inflation are always associated with a reduction in the amount of cash in the hands of the population, frequent revision of Prices, instability of relative Prices, violation of taxation principles and the inconvenience of recalculations adjusted for Inflation. The costs of unexpected Inflation are more controversial and are associated with the redistribution of Benefits or wealth between Borrowers and borrowers, with a decrease in the real Value of savings and a reduction in real Income social groups with a fixed level of Benefit. The indicated causes and consequences of Inflation are of a general nature, but this does not diminish their significance.

Curve Phillips. Inflation has a serious impact on Employment. In 1958, the English economist O. Phillips proposed the Demand Inflation model, which clearly shows this impact. This curve was later modified.

If the Government of the Country considers the level of Unemployment U1 (it corresponds to the growth rate of Prices P1) as extremely high, then to reduce it, the level of unemployment and monetary measures that stimulate Demand. This leads to the expansion of production and the creation of new jobs. Norm Unemployment decreases to the value U2, but at the same time the rate of Inflation increases to P2. The emerging conditions may cause an “overheating” of the economy, serious crisis phenomena, which will force the government to introduce credit restrictions and reduce spending from State Budget etc. As a result, the rate of price growth will decrease to the level of P3, and Unemployment will increase, its norm will be U3.

The practice of economic regulation has shown. That the Phillips curve can be applied to the economic situation in the short term Periods, because in the long term (5-10 years), despite high level Unemployment and inflation continue to rise, which is explained by a whole range of circumstances.

Among these circumstances, it is important to highlight Politics stimulating aggregate demand. The government's desire to buy more at the cost of inflation low level Unemployment can be considered successful only when business agents manage to create so-called false expectations. Yes, work unemployment rate Any increase in nominal wage rates increases labor. And then the growth of Inflation (and the associated increase in Wages) can reduce unemployment. But the fact is that over time, the population begins to recognize the true price of the attractiveness of high monetary (nominal) wage rates. Indeed, in conditions of Inflation, the growth of real wages is not necessarily the same as the growth of its nominal level. And if people discover that they can buy fewer and fewer goods and services with what they receive, the illusion comes to an end: no one intends to increase the supply of their labor in response to an increase in money wages. Businessmen are cutting back Demand for labor. The demands of wage earners for higher real wages lead to a decrease in Profits and, therefore, force Businessmen to limit the hiring of workers.

The Phillips curve can be used to graphically depict stagflation. After all, this means a right-hand shift of this curve in Figure 3 when the increased price level is accompanied by growing unemployment. It is also believed that the Phillips curve can be used for economic analysis of the alternative to Inflation and Unemployment only in conditions of moderate Inflation at a constant rate. With unexpected economic shocks, the rate of Inflation also increases unexpectedly and may be accompanied by a sharp increase in Unemployment.

Consequences of Inflation. The consequences of Inflation are complex and varied. Its small pace contributes to the growth of Prices and Profit rates, thus being a factor in the temporary revival of the Market. As inflation deepens, it turns into a serious obstacle to reproduction and aggravates economic and social tension in society.

Galloping Inflation disorganizes the economy and causes serious economic damage to both large corporations and small businesses, primarily due to market uncertainty Conjunctures. Inflation makes it difficult to implement effective macroeconomic policies. In addition, uneven price growth increases disproportions between sectors of the economy and distorts the structure of consumer demand. ceases to fulfill its main function in a market economy - to be an objective information signal.

Inflation intensifies the flight from money to goods, turning it into an avalanche, aggravates the commodity shortage, undermines incentives for monetary accumulation, disrupts the functioning of the monetary system, and revives barter.

In conditions of Inflation, the savings of the population depreciate, and Banks and institutions providing credit suffer losses. The internationalization of production facilitates the transfer of Inflation from Country to Country, complicating international monetary and credit relations.

Inflation also has social consequences, it leads to the redistribution of national benefits, it is, as it were, a super-tax on the population, which causes the growth rate of nominal as well as real wages to lag behind the sharply increasing prices of goods and services. Damage from Inflation is suffered by all categories of employees, people in liberal professions, pensioners, rentiers, Income which either decrease or increase at a rate less than the rate of inflation.

Anti-inflationary policy of the State

The government's anti-inflationary policy, according to the Phillips curve, in the short term leads to an increase in Unemployment and a decrease in Money issue. The economy moves from the so-called metaphor, NLP A, to the right and down along the original Phillips curve. A reduction in government Costs or the Monetary Supply reduces the Price level, while , fixed in employment contracts, remains the same. Castles of Belarus Under these conditions, the profits of firms fall and they reduce the volume of their money issue, and hence employment1. To quantify the effectiveness of combating inflation, the so-called loss coefficient is used. Sushi delivery zhulebino It shows how many percent of the real annual volume of monetary emission must be sacrificed in order to reduce Inflation by one percentage point1. Proponents of the theory of rational expectations believe that losses from the fight against inflation can be significantly reduced if the plan for implementing such an anti-inflationary policy is announced in advance, before economic agents form their expectations, and, most importantly, if people believe in the implementation of this plan. Sale shares

Anti-inflationary policy can be carried out using both methods " shock therapy"(when a tight monetary policy helps to quickly bring down Inflation, but is accompanied by a significant decline in production), and gradually, through repeated, but each time a small reduction in the growth rate of the Monetary aggregate, which avoids a deep recession, but does not make it possible to quickly reduce Inflation.

The specific implementation of long-term anti-inflationary programs goes beyond recommendations to reduce government Costs and the Monetary Supply, corresponding to the short-term Phillips curve model and regulations of aggregate demand based on Keynesian ideas.

In a broader sense, “shock therapy” involves, as a rule, the use of purely monetarist anti-inflationary measures: broad liberalization of economic life, liberation of prices, curtailment of economic activity of the State, severe restriction of the growth of the Monetary aggregate, balancing Budget mainly due to the reduction of social programs, etc. Programs for gradual reduction of Inflation provide for the active regulatory influence of the State (in order to mitigate the negative consequences of anti-inflationary measures): support for the most important branches of production, tax incentives for entrepreneurship, partial regulation of the Process Pricing, creation of market infrastructure, etc. In this case, the anti-inflationary reduction in aggregate demand is complemented by measures that support Supply and create conditions for its growth in the future, which avoids a deep recession and Unemployment (policy of gradualism).

Most Countries - both developed and with economies in transition - in the fight against Inflation never followed the strict monetarist recommendations of “shock therapy”, since this inevitably led to a protracted recession, an increase in Unemployment, and a sharp decline in the living standards of the population.

Negative social and economic consequences Inflation forces the governments of different countries to pursue certain economic policies. At the same time, first of all, economists are trying to find an answer to such an important question - to eliminate inflation through radical measures or to adapt to it. This dilemma is resolved in different countries taking into account a whole range of specific circumstances. In the USA and Great Britain For example, at the state level the task of combating inflation is set. Some other Countries are developing a set of adaptation measures (indexation, etc.).

Assessing the nature of anti-inflationary policy, two approaches can be distinguished. The first approach (developed by representatives of modern Keynesianism) provides for an active budget policy - maneuvering government Costs and Taxes in order to influence the solvent.

With inflationary, excess demand, it limits its Expenses and increases Taxes. As a result, Demand decreases and the rate of Inflation decreases. however, at the same time, the growth of production is also limited, which can lead to stagnation and even crisis phenomena in the economy, to the expansion of Unemployment.

Fiscal policy is also being pursued to expand demand in times of recession. If Demand is insufficient, government investment programs are implemented and other Costs are reduced. Low Taxes are established primarily in relation to recipients of average and low Incomes, who usually immediately realize the benefits. It is believed that in this way the Demand for consumer Goods and services expands. However, stimulating demand budget funds, as the experience of many countries showed in the 60s and 70s, can increase inflation. In addition, large budget deficits limit the government's ability to maneuver Taxes and Costs.

The second approach is recommended by neoclassical economists, who highlight monetary regulation, which indirectly and flexibly affects the economic situation. This type of regulation is carried out formally by the Central Bank, which is not controlled by the government, which changes the amount of Money in circulation and the lending rate. Percent, thus affecting the economy. In other words, these economists believe that the State should carry out deflationary measures to limit effective demand, since stimulation economic growth and artificial maintenance Employment by reducing the natural level of Unemployment leads to loss of control over Inflation.

The modern market economy is inflationary in nature, since it is impossible to eliminate all factors of employment unemployment rate deficit, monopolies, imbalances in the national economy, inflationary expectations of the population and businessmen, transfer of inflation through foreign economic channels, etc.).

In this regard, it is obvious that the task of completely eliminating inflation is unrealistic. Apparently, this is why many States set themselves the goal of making it moderate, controlled, and preventing its destructive scale.

Fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is the manipulation of the State Budget (government Costs and taxation) to achieve the stated goals of increasing production and Employment or reducing Inflation.

Let's consider a discretionary contractionary fiscal Policy, which refers to the deliberate manipulation of Taxes and government employment odes to control inflation. It includes: (1) reducing government Costs, or (2) increasing Taxes, or (3) a combination of (1) and (2). In all these cases, there is a reduction in the equilibrium net national Goods.

Liberal economists who believe that the public sector should be expanded to compensate for the various inaccuracies of the market system may recommend limiting the total Cost of Inflation by increasing Taxes. Conservative economists who believe that the public sector is overly bloated and inefficient may argue for reducing overall Costs during a Period of Inflation by reducing government Costs. An active fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing the economy can rely on both an expanding and a contracting public sector.

To some extent necessary changes in relative levels Government Costs and Taxes are entered automatically. This so-called automatic or built-in stability is not included in the consideration of discretionary fiscal policy.

If tax revenues fluctuate in the same direction as the NNP, then the budget surpluses that tend to automatically arise during economic booms, will help overcome possible Inflation.

Fiscal Policy and Inflation . Fiscal policy can play a positive role in the fight against Inflation.

Preventing predicted Inflation. The economic system is in a state of equilibrium at point E1 for some time (real production volume is maintained at the natural level). The draft State Budget for the next Budget year is pessimistic: according to experts, inflation is likely to increase, which is determined by the expected growth of the following components of aggregate demand: a sharp increase in demand for export Goods, a boom in Consumer spending, an increase in the level of planned investments and Costs. Without taking urgent measures, this state of affairs will shift the economic system to the right and upward (i.e., it will cause movement along the aggregate Supply curve AS1 to point E2).

The result will be a general increase in the price level from P1 to P2, but the growth of Inflation will not end there. The general increase in the Prices of Goods and Services will force Companies over time to change their expectations regarding Wages and Prices for attracted factors of production and other resources. As a result, in short-term time intervals the aggregate Supply curve will shift upward to position AS2. When real output falls back to its natural level, the Price level will continue to increase until it reaches the new long-run equilibrium P3. Using a “containment” fiscal policy is one of the ways to eliminate the threat of Inflation. The state budget for next year can be drawn up in such a way that a reduction in the volume of government purchases and orders is combined with an increase in net Taxes, compensating for the expected recovery in aggregate demand in the private sector of the economy. The right combination of reducing the volume of government orders, transfer Payments and increasing Taxes will keep the aggregate demand curve in the desired position AD1, and the economic system in a state of stability.

Expansionary fiscal policy as a generator of Inflation. In the previous example, representatives of the Government make adjustments to prevent the growth of Inflation and care about the welfare of their people. However, people are different. For example, the economic system is in equilibrium at point E1, and experts expect the situation to be stable in the foreseeable future. But elections are approaching. Members of Congress, wanting to please voters, intend to increase payments from the State Budget, reduce Taxes and immediately introduce expensive projects to create new Work places. on the eve of re-elections, he also wants to conduct his election campaign in an atmosphere of growth in real output and reduction in unemployment. Conscious of the commonality of their interests, and The president are drafting an unrealistically expanded State Budget for the year of the upcoming elections. As soon as these plans begin to be implemented, the economic system will leave the stationary state (move from point E1 to E2). As expected, the real volume of production will increase and decrease; the increase in the price level will be insignificant. Voters will be very satisfied, and the election results will be almost predetermined.

However, next year Wages, prices for resources and attracted factors of production will begin to increase as if by magic. And as Companies will adapt their expectations to new conditions, inflating Prices in order to compensate for Costs, not only will the Prices of Goods and Services rise sharply, but there will also be a reduction in production volume, accompanied by an increase in Unemployment.

Automatic fiscal policy. That type of fiscal policy - changes in orders relating to government procurement and orders, tax structure and transfer Payments to increase or decrease aggregate demand is called discretionary fiscal policy.

However, in practice, the level of government orders, as well as the level of net Taxes, may change even in the absence of any changes in the laws governing them. This is because many laws concerning tax structure and cost mechanisms are designed in such a way that the parameters of fiscal policy automatically change as economic conditions change. Such changes in government purchases and orders and net Taxes, which are called automatic fiscal policy, are most closely related to changes in the real output of goods and services, the level of prices and Interest rates.

Changes in real output. The level of real output - one of the basic economic parameters - in in this case acquires particular importance, because it affects both the revenue (from the receipt of Taxes) and the expenditure side Budget. An increase in real output increases real Income from all major sources of tax revenue, including income taxes, social security contributions, corporate income taxes, sales and turnover. At the same time, an increase in real output reduces the government's real spending on transfer payments. This is mainly due to the fact that an increase in real output naturally reduces unemployment. Taking into account both of these circumstances, we can assume that an increase in the real national Good reduces the State Budget Deficit in both real and nominal terms.

Price level changes. An increase in the price level also affects both parts of the State Budget - revenue and expenditure. At a constant level of real output, an increase in Prices increases nominal state (federal) Tax Revenues. Where tax rates are not indexed, i.e. do not change automatically when the rate of Inflation changes, Inflation can also cause an increase in Tax Revenues. (The classic example is the federal income tax. However, income taxes in economic practice USA are now indexed and do not place an additional burden on the shoulders of taxpayers). At the same time, an increase in the price level increases nominal Expenses. This happens partly because most transfer programs are not indexed depending on the increase in the Cost of Living, partly because Inflation raises the Prices for Goods and services purchased by government agencies as part of government orders. Let us note that some types of government procurement “pass” under Budget items in nominal terms. This state of affairs leads to the fact that the nominal increase in Costs will be less than necessary when the Price level rises, so that real Costs will decrease.

If all Budget items are indexed, then an increase in the level of Prices does not in any way affect the real State Budget Deficit. In practice, the budget is far from fully indexed, as a result of which the nominal amounts of Taxes, both in absolute and percentage terms, grow faster than the nominal amounts of government purchases and Costs. Thus, an increase in the price level, with other equal conditions reduces the nominal volume of the State Budget deficit, and in real variables this reduction is even more significant.

Change Interest rates. An increase in nominal interest rates increases the real cost of repaying government Debt. This increase is only partially offset by an increase in nominal government revenues from higher standards Percent and bank discount rates. So, in general, an increase in nominal Interest rates increases both the real and nominal Fiscal deficit.

Automatic stabilization. There is a situation where the economic system is experiencing recovery, real output increases, the price level rises, and Unemployment decreases. Each of these phenomena leads to a replenishment of the State Budget in real terms, that is, an increase in direct revenues, a reduction in payments and transfers, or both of these Processes at the same time. Whatever issues of formation of the State Budget we consider, the mechanisms laid down in the fiscal policy are always aimed at restraining aggregate demand during the revival and recovery of the economy. On the contrary, when Economic recession Real output growth slows and unemployment rises. At the same time, the rate of Inflation is decreasing, even if the reduction business activity not large enough to cause a significant reduction in the price level. Therefore, during Recessions and Economic Recession, the real State Budget Deficit is increasing.

Since built-in fiscal system mechanisms are required to compensate for changes in the total volume and structure of planned Costs and investments; budget components such as income taxes and unemployment benefits are called automatic stabilizers. These mechanisms serve to soften the reaction of the economic system to changes in the volume of consumption of planned private sector investments and the balance of export-import transactions.

Fiscal Policy Issues:

Recognition time lag. A certain period of time passes between the beginning of Inflation and the moment when consciousness of this fact occurs.

Administrative delay. The wheels of government often turn rather slowly.

Functional delay. There is a time lag between the moment when a decision is made on fiscal measures and the time when these measures begin to affect the price level.

Political problems. Fiscal policy is formed in the political arena, and this greatly complicates its use for the purposes of stabilizing the economy.

The effect of crowding out some investment capital on the Money Market.

Aggregate demand shocks with roots abroad.

Clean effect Export. By reducing the domestic interest rate, contractionary fiscal policy tends to increase net Export. The result of this is a decreased external demand for National currency, depreciation of this Currencies and, consequently, an increase in net Exports (aggregate increases, partly counteracting contractionary fiscal Policy).

Monetary policy. Monetary Policy uses a expensive Money policy to restrict the Money Supply, in order to lower Expenditure and contain inflationary pressures. Its purpose is to reduce reserves Private banks. This is done as follows:

Central Banks must sell to the State. bonds on the open market in order to cut the reserves of private banks.

An increase in the reserve ratio automatically frees private banks from excess reserves and reduces the size of the money multiplier.

Raising the discount rate reduces the interest of Private Banks to increase their reserves by borrowing from Central Banks.

Among the three types of monetary control (operations on the open market, changes in the reserve ratio, discount rate The most important regulatory mechanism is open market operations.

The three main instruments of Monetary Policy are periodically supplemented by some less important controls in the form of selective regulation which concerns the Equity Market, Hire Purchase and Exhortations.

Impact of restrictive Monetary Policy.

The system of channels through which the influence of Money is realized in the economic system is called a transmission mechanism.

The figure illustrates the operation of this mechanism in a situation where the economic system is affected by a one-time change in the amount of Money.

Initially Money market, the model of which is shown in part A Figure 5 is in a state of equilibrium at point E1. The Money Supply curve is in position MS1, and the Money Demand curve is in position MD1; therefore, the equilibrium value of the nominal interest rate is equal to R1

At this value, real planned Investments to the extent indicated in part b drawing with the symbol I1. This level of planned investment, along with the given conditions relating to consumption volumes, government purchases and net Exports, is taken into account as a structure-forming element in constructing the aggregate demand curve AD1 in terms of V. Thus, point e1, at which the aggregate demand curves AD1 and aggregate Supply AS intersect, is the point of initial equilibrium of the economic system. The equilibrium level of real output is indicated by the symbol y1, and P1 corresponds to the equilibrium price level.

Fixing point E2 ( Money market), Central Bank reconsiders his tactical goal Monetary Policy and reduces the amount of Money in circulation. Graphically, this can be interpreted as a shift of the Money Supply curve to the left. The growing interest rate causes a reduction in the volume of planned investments. This, in turn, shifts the aggregate demand curve to the left, causing price levels and real output to decline. This means a decrease in the amount of nominal Benefit, which causes the demand curve for Money to also shift to the left, but not so much as to avoid some increase in the rate of Interest. A new equilibrium in the short-term time interval is established when money returns to state E1, and the economic system as a whole again finds itself at point E1.

To summarize, we can say that in the short term, the consequences of restrictive actions within the framework of Monetary Policy are as follows:

Increasing the Interest Rate.

Decrease in the level of real output.

Lowering the price level.

If we turn to the Policy of Dear Money to limit Inflation, we will find that the net will decrease. This means a growing trade deficit. (Problem: Inflation and the policy of expensive Money is higher - and the increased Demand for the National Currency abroad and the Value of the National Currency increases and net Exports decrease&nd % bid total Demand). Consequently, the policy of expensive Money, carried out to mitigate Inflation, contradicts the task of adjusting the deficit Trade balance.

Monetarism. The monetarist approach is that Markets are sufficiently competitive and that the market system Competition provides a high degree of macroeconomic stability. Thus, the market system, if it is not subject to government intervention in the functioning of the economy, provides significant macroeconomic stability. Monetarists are ardent supporters of the free market. Public administration is considered ineffective, harmful to individual initiative, and often containing political errors that destabilize the economy.

The fundamental equation of monetarism is the equation of exchange :

MV = PQ, where M is the Money Supply, V is the velocity of circulation of Money in the circulation of Income; P - price level or, more precisely, average price, at which each unit of physical production volume is sold; Q is the physical volume of goods and services produced.

Monetarists see in the money supply the only factor determining the level of production, employment and prices. The theoretical reasoning of Monetarists stems from the fact that an expansion of the money Supply increases the Demand for all types of assets, as well as for the current volume of production. Consequently, under conditions of full employment, prices for all factors will increase. Moreover, Monetarists believe employment The circulation of Money is stable - in the sense that its fluctuations are small and it does not change in response to changes in the monetary Supply itself. This means that changes in money supply have a pre-employment impact on the level of nominal NNP (=PQ).

Monetarists believe that while a change in M ​​may cause short-term changes in real output and Employment as the Market adjusts to the change, in the long run a change in M ​​affects the Price level. assumes that the transmission mechanism is simpler and much clearer than the Keynesian model suggests. The Monetarist transmission mechanism is schematically depicted in Figure 6. From the Monetarist point of view, changes in aggregate demand affect nominal NNP in the long term primarily through changes in the price level.

Monetarists significantly disparage fiscal policy as a means of resource redistribution and stabilization. They believe that the absolute helplessness and ineffectiveness of fiscal Policy is due to the crowding out effect. Suppose the State creates Budget deficit, selling bonds, that is, borrowing Money from the population. But by borrowing Money, the State enters into competition with private business for funds. State Loans expand the Demand for Money, raise the Interest Rate and crowd out a large amount of private investment which would otherwise be profitable. The final result of the impact Budget deficit on total Expenses is unpredictable or immaterial.

Most Monetarists do not recommend a percentage rate on cheap and expensive Money to soften the ups and downs of the business cycle. From the Monetarist point of view, economic instability is generated more by improper monetary regulation than by internal instability of the economy. Therefore, Monetarists propose a monetary rule according to which the money supply increases in accordance with the long-term growth of real NPP.

From the Monetarist point of view, aggregate Demand shifts to the right or left mainly as a result of a corresponding expansion or contraction of the money Supply. Monetarists consider the aggregate supply curve to be steep, or, at the extreme, vertical. The almost vertical line reflects the classical basis of monetarism.

From the Monetarist point of view, changes in aggregate demand primarily affect the price level and have little impact on real GNP. This conclusion follows from the assumption that if Central Bank adheres to the monetary rule, then the volume of production in the economy is always at the level of almost full employment. If those who make Politics try to use stabilization measures, their efforts will be in vain. As a result of the shift in the aggregate demand curve from AD1 to AD2, we get a modest increase in real output, but a significant increase in the price level. For very modest increases in output and Employment, the economy pays a high Price in the form of Inflation.

Natural rate hypothesis. The natural rate hypothesis calls into question the very existence of the downward sloping Phillips curve as depicted in Figure 3. This employment leads to the conclusion that the economy is sustainable in the long run at the natural rate of Unemployment.

According to the natural rate hypothesis, an incorrectly oriented Keynesian full employment policy based on the thesis of the Phillips curve will lead to an increase in the level of Inflation. According to the natural rate hypothesis, any given level of Unemployment is consistent with the natural rate of Unemployment in the economy.

The natural rate hypothesis has two variants - the theory of adaptive and the theory of rational expectations.

Adaptive Expectations Theory. unemployment rate is a variant of the theory of adaptive unemployment rate to the fact that people imagine the future as similar to the recent past, starting from which they form their plans, that is Companies expects the same rate of inflation this year as last year. More complex economic models often assume that expectations are based on some weighted average of inflation rates over several previous years. However, all these assumptions are nothing more than variations on the same theme: generals are always preparing for the last war.

The theory of adaptive expectations basically involves the use of an aggregate supply curve that has a positive slope in short-term time intervals and moves upward in long-term intervals. Thus, the theory of adaptive expectations provides the basis for a completely satisfactory interpretation of the Inflation Process. However, for a number of reasons, this theory does not satisfy many economists.

The theory of rational expectations. The concept of rational expectations is one of the youngest trends in modern economic theory. Due to the use of methodological principles of classical economics, the theory of rational expectations was also called “new classical economics”.

One of the central ideas of neoclassics is that economic agents, using information, are able to independently predict economic processes and make optimal decisions. Based on available Information, economic agents make decisions about current and future consumption, based on forecasts regarding the future level of prices for consumer goods. Wherein Consumers strive to maximize utility.

Another main provision of the TRO is the idea that the Markets for goods and factors of production are highly competitive and therefore the rates of Wages and Prices for Goods and factors of production respond flexibly to changes in the sphere of production and exchange. Under the influence of the new Market situations Consumers and Businessmen make adequate economic decisions and, as a result, the Prices of Goods and resources change. Such a reaction from Consumers, Businessmen and owners of production factors negates the results of the stabilization Policy.

However, economic agents can also make wrong decisions due to an inadequate assessment of the existing Information. This occurs when the government makes poor decisions that affect the variables involved in determining the volume of aggregate demand and supply. Therefore, governments must abandon opportunistic countercyclical policies.

Without denying the need for the State to participate in economic processes, supporters of the concept of rational expectations consider any Economic policy both Keynesian and monetarist. The ineffectiveness of Keynesian Policy and, to a lesser extent, monetarist Policy lies in its instability, the unpredictability of the factors that determine decision-making by economic agents.

The importance of rational expectations in economic policy. The theory of rational expectations is very important for Economic policy. It assumes that the consequences of an expected event are significantly different from the consequences of an unexpected event.

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In the world of adaptive expectations, an event within the framework of expansionist Economic policy that causes a shift in the aggregate demand curve from AD0 to AD1 will, in the short-term time interval, force the economic system to move from E0 to E1. Subsequently, the aggregate Supply curve will shift upward by AS1, and the economic system, having passed the path indicated by the curved arrow in the diagram, will reach equilibrium in the long-term time interval at point E2.

If we take the theory of rational expectations as a basis, then a change within the framework of expansionary Policy, fully expected by firms and family farms, will immediately cause a shift in aggregate Supply upward by AS1. The economic system will progressively move upward along line N to point E2. No intervening Period during which real output rises above the natural level will be recorded in this case. Expansionist, if it has an impact on the real volume of production, will be only very insignificant; instead, it will push prices up - and very quickly.

According to rational expectations theorists, an economic system will follow a positively sloping aggregate supply curve in the short run if and only if shifts in aggregate demand are some kind of “surprise.”

According to the theory of rational expectations, the aggregate Supply curve of an economic system in the event of a change in economic Policy is the same in both short-term and long-term time intervals - a vertical line that coincides with the natural level of real output. Consequently, the expected changes in macroeconomic Policy will not have even a temporary impact on real output or .

The same mechanism operates during those periods when there is a contraction in aggregate demand, provided that the reasons for this contraction were well known to everyone. In this case, the economic system would move downward to a new equilibrium state at the natural level of real output. There would be no adverse impact on real output or employment. This scenario is an extreme, the opposite pole of which is the thesis of Keynes’s “General Theory” that the economic system would never spontaneously return to the natural level of real output after a contraction in demand. If the theory of rationalization of population expectations adequately describes what is happening in the economic system Processes, then it leads us to the classical idea of ​​an economic system, which is basically stable at the natural level of real production volume. However, the stabilization process - at least in the case of complete predictability of changes in aggregate demand - occurs even more high speed than the classics assumed. Arguing in a similar way, the theory of rational expectations not only proves the principle of neutrality of Money, but also assumes that it holds in the short term as well as in the long term, at least when changes in the amount of circulating Money are completely predictable. Due to this similarity with the views of economists of the classical school, supporters of the theory of rational expectations are often called “new classics.”

Economics Proposals. Economists have also recognized that fiscal policy, especially changes in Taxes, can change aggregate Supply and, therefore, affect the changes that fiscal policy can cause in the Price level-real production relationship.

Some economists are convinced that tax cuts will shift the aggregate Supply curve significantly to the right. Lower Taxes will increase After-Tax Income and thus increase household savings. Reducing Taxes on Businessmen will increase the profitability of investments. Moreover, reduced personal income taxes also increase the amount of Salary after Taxes, that is, the Price that is paid for Work, and therefore increase the incentive to work. Through all of these channels, a Tax cut will move the aggregate demand curve to the right from AS1 to AS2 in Figure 9, which will reduce Inflation and ensure further growth of real NNP.

While from the point of view of traditional Keynesian approaches A reduction in tax rates will cause a reduction in tax revenues and increase the Budget Deficit. The Proposal Economics approach suggests that cuts in Tax rates can be designed in such a way that they will increase tax revenues and reduce deficits.

Proponents of the supply-oriented theory claim that sooner or later most of the Taxes (the level of Taxes in this case is high) are transformed into Expenses of Businessmen and are passed on to Consumers in the form of higher Prices. Taxes have the effect of accelerating Cost Inflation.

Proponents of supply-side economics believe that the existence of a wide variety of government transfer programs undermines the incentive to work. They propose lowering the marginal tax rates on savings, and they also call for lower Taxes on Investment Income to ensure that there are sufficient investment opportunities for increasing savings in the economy.

Most economists are very wary of the above-described interpretation of tax cuts from the perspective of supply-side economics. First, they feel that the expected positive impact of tax cuts on incentives to work. Saving and investment, and the incentives to take risks, may not actually be as strong as proponents of supply-side economics hope. Secondly, any shifts in the aggregate Supply curve to the right are long-term in nature, whereas the impact on Demand will be felt in the economy much faster.

Extensive experience in carrying out anti-inflationary measures in Western Countries shows the advisability of combining long-term and short-term policies. Let us turn to the most important tasks of long-term Policy (anti-inflationary strategy).

Anti-inflationary strategy. The strategy for extinguishing adaptive inflation expectations involves changing the psychology of Consumers, ridding them of the fear of depreciation of savings, and preventing an increase in current demand. It is advisable to solve the problem of adaptive inflation expectations quickly and before inflation is brought under pressure. Judging by the practice of anti-inflationary regulation, this can be done if two conditions are met:

Every possible strengthening of the mechanisms of the market system that can reduce prices or at least slow down their growth. Only in this case is it possible to change the psychology of Consumers and eliminate inflationary motives from it. The acquirer must ensure that price fluctuations for a relatively small number of goods and services occur under the influence of supply and demand;

The existence of a government of national consensus, enjoying the trust of the majority of citizens and pursuing an anti-inflationary policy. At the same time, the government sets itself very specific, practically feasible and easily verifiable anti-inflationary tasks, informing the population about this in advance.

This refers, for example, to regular messages about the level of Inflation that it is going to maintain, and the growth rate of the Monetary Supply necessary for this. If promises are strictly fulfilled for at least several years, then the announcement effect is triggered: producers and Consumers are gradually convinced that the government has taken the path of fighting Inflation and is able to control it. The higher the confidence of the population, the more willingly it adapts its decisions about prices, Supply, demand, savings, etc. to the government-established limit on the growth of the Monetary Supply.

People's economic behavior is changing, which helps lower inflation expectations. The announcement effect occurs with some delay, which depends on the time interval between the introduction of monetary restrictions and real changes in demand and prices. As you can see, the effect of the announcement is technically simple and unpretentious; incrementally it has become an effective element of the anti-inflationary strategy in USA, Great Britain, Germany, where in last years There was a noticeable weakening of inflation expectations.

The strategy for limiting the monetary aggregate is based on strict limits on its annual growth. This indicator is determined in accordance with the long-term equilibrium equation of the Money Market: M"n = Y+Pe

Where: M’n is the average annual growth rate of the Money Supply for a certain Period of time;

Y is the average annual growth rate of real Goods (in constant prices) for the corresponding Period;

Re - expected rate of price growth.

In order for the monetary policy to be truly anti-inflationary, the specified one must be maintained for a long time, regardless of the state of the Budget, the intensity of the investment Process, the level of Unemployment, etc. Then the economy will additionally feel the effect of the announcement. In an inflationary economy, monetary policy must play a dominant role. Only guided by the principle that in an inflationary environment there are no and cannot be reasons forcing the inflation rate to exceed Limit Monetary aggregate, the State has a chance to stop Inflation.

Authorities. But even under these conditions, pursuing an anti-inflationary monetary policy is not easy. So in the USA, where there is a highly effective Banking system, during the period from 1965 to 1980, at least four unsuccessful attempts were made to do this. This is explained by the fact that the State, burdened by the problems of the Budget deficit, the need to maintain a favorable economic situation, etc., deviated from the planned anti-inflationary course and resorted to pumping excess amounts of Money into the economy. Such fluctuations increased inflation expectations and complicated the task of overcoming inflation. a more or less consistent monetary strategy was achieved with President R. Reagan, which affected the slowdown in inflation in the American economy.

Note that as soon as monetary restrictions stabilize the rate of price growth at least a little, adaptive inflation expectations begin to change. Other things being equal, the weaker the expectations, the higher the propensity to save. In turn, the influx of savings makes it possible to solve budgetary problems, in particular to finance the Deficit, resorting less and less to Central Bank Loans. It becomes easier for the latter to pursue a non-inflationary monetary policy. Thus, every success of a monetary strategy serves as a condition for its further effective implementation, i.e. is a self-reinforcing process.

The regime of strict monetary restrictions is a powerful regulator of the economy, and it must be used with extreme caution. Since market mechanisms do not work perfectly, the implementation of an anti-inflationary monetary policy first necessarily results in a sharp rise in interest rates. Thus, in the early 70s, such actions of the Federal Reserve became one of the reasons for the wave of bankruptcies, and in 1981 - 1982 contributed to the recession that swept the entire American economy.

In a highly monopolized economy, where the public sector dominates and market mechanisms are not developed, the establishment of strict limits on the growth of the monetary aggregate leads not only to the stabilization of prices, but also to a reduction in production volumes. Therefore, anti-inflationary monetary policy must be combined with the denationalization of the economy, its demonopolization, and the development of market infrastructure.

The strategic task of reducing the budget deficit can be solved in two ways: increasing growth gov and reducing State Costs.

Growth of taxes forming the revenue side of the Budget , may bring short-term results. In the long term, such a policy results in a decrease in investment and a slowdown in economic development. High Tax rates may cause a narrowing of the Tax base, i.e. the amount of Income from which deductions go to the budget. Modern System Taxation is developing in the direction of lowering rates and increasing tax benefits for efficient farms. For example, in the USA, the share of income taxes in the benefits of the federal budget does not exceed 8%. The government's line, intending to end the Budget deficit, is not to take more from the economy, but to give it less from the state treasury.

Improvement Tax systems can be turned into an element of an anti-inflationary strategy. Reduced rates Income tax and Added value or the use of other tax incentive schemes gives an additional impetus to the investment process, and from it in the long term one should expect an increase in production and Employment, therefore, the mass of Income subject to taxation. Eventually growth is likely state revenues and reducing the deficit.

Lowering income tax rates will lead to an increase in personal savings if the inflationary psychology of Consumers can be reversed. Then the increase in savings will be as Financing economic development and to cover the budget deficit. Let us recall that from the point of view of Inflation, this option is preferable to government loans from the Central Bank or securities. For such a turn to become a reality, income taxation must be based on a progressive scale, and a reduction in st. growth extend primarily to persons with high Benefits, because their propensity to save is higher than that of the poor.

It should be recognized that, in principle, anti-inflationary tax reserves are limited and do not produce quick effects. Therefore, the main burden associated with reducing the Budget Deficit falls on reducing government costs. Reducing budget allocations, and with it the deficit, is a complex process that requires quite a long time. Sharp reductions in certain budget items are unacceptable. We need a strategic plan to restore balance to the State Budget.

For example, government subsidies to unprofitable Enterprises at the expense of Budget funds are unjustified in a market economy. Let's assume they are discontinued. Of course, the Budget Deficit will decrease. At the same time, massive bankruptcies and layoffs will follow, and unemployment will begin to rise, which will deal a double blow to the Budget. On the one hand, it will be necessary to increase government spending related to social security additional number of unemployed, their retraining, employment, etc. On the other hand, a reduction in Income due to a decrease in Profit will become inevitable Enterprises and reducing the amount income tax. It is possible that ultimately the government will get the opposite result - an increase in the deficit, an acceleration in Inflation.

The main principle of reducing budget Costs is the following: a gradual reduction in funding for those types of State activities that can be transferred to the market. We are talking about stopping the excessive intervention of the State in the investment process and reducing the volume of budgetary investments, canceling unjustified grants and subsidies, partial privatization of healthcare and education, etc.

Reasonable caution should not prevent an uncompromising attack on the Budget Deficit, preferably within the framework of a single anti-inflationary strategy, supported by other measures - government stimulation Scientific and technological progress, structural restructuring of the economy, focusing investments on production consumer goods, conversion war economy and so on. By organizing the correct monetary policy and achieving a reduction in the Budget deficit, the State approaches the problem of Inflation from the demand side. By helping structural transformations and establishing the conversion of military production, it attacks Inflation from the side of commodity supply. This is especially important in a domestic economy sensitive to Supply Inflation. By introducing tax and credit regulators, the State promotes the expansion of sales of knowledge-intensive goods and services (consumer electronics, communications, Information etc.), the formation of new Markets. An increase in Supply, compensating for excess Demand, lowers Prices and slows down Inflation. It is no coincidence that in countries that are successfully developing the latest technology and technology, for example in Japan, inflation is reliably controlled and no longer poses a serious threat to the economy.

The national anti-inflation strategy should be structured in such a way as to minimize the impact on the economy from external inflationary impulses. This is especially associated with the movement across borders of short-term Capital, which is reflected in the balance Balance of payments. If the Country got a tide Capital from abroad, then the balance Balance of payments positive. Part of these Capitals penetrates into Banking system, is translated into National Currency and turns into short-term Loans, increasing Money in the economy. Another part of the Capital may go to the government, which borrows abroad, sending its bonds there. In both cases, inflationary effects occur. They can be eliminated if the Central Bank expands the volume of Sales of Government Securities (Open Market Operations) in order to reduce the increased money supply and transfer a certain part of it to centralized reserves.

These are the main features of an anti-inflationary strategy, the results of which will be felt by the economy after a long period of time.

Anti-inflationary tactics. When the inflationary situation is intolerable, it is necessary to mobilize the tactical, fast-acting potential of anti-inflationary regulation. These methods are not designed to eliminate the causes of Inflation or dismantle its mechanisms; they are of an emergency nature and are aimed at weakening Inflation. reserves short-term regulation are not unlimited and cannot replace an anti-inflationary strategy. We are talking about a preliminary therapeutic effect on the ailing economy, designed to prepare it for a more radical treatment of the inflationary disease.

Anti-inflationary tactics will give maximum results by influencing the inflationary Gap between Demand and Supply if it helps to increase Supply without a corresponding increase in demand, or helps to reduce current demand without a corresponding fall in Supply. Any other anti-inflationary measures will have less effect.

Short-term growth reserves Supply.

State support for increasing the marketability of the economy. Meaning preferential taxation Enterprises, selling by-products of production and services, Banks, processing and trading commercial information, etc. such activity does not require significant additional Costs, including Wages, but contributes to an increase in the supply of goods and helps to temporarily correct inflationary distortions. However, the level of marketability of an economy can only be increased to a certain limit.

Support for the formation of new Markets, especially in those sectors of the economy where the transition from natural to commodity production is taking place. An example is the global market information services, which is in its infancy: the international flow of Information is commercialized by approximately 30%, the rest passes through the internal channels of transnational corporations, remaining aloof from the open Market.

Information as the Product has unique anti-inflationary advantages. Initially, its production is associated with significant costs associated with financing scientific research and technological developments. Further reproduction and replication occurs with minimal Costs, which is equivalent to an increase in product supply. In addition, Information differs from many other goods and services in that throughout its life cycle does not disappear in the sphere of final consumption, but returns from there, again turning into an object of purchase and sale. There is a multiple increase in Supply without an adequate increase in demand.

Intelligently organized Privatization state ownership carries an anti-inflationary charge. It leads to an increase in government revenues and a weakening of tension in the expenditure side of the Budget, which helps overcome the deficit. Moreover, this form of denationalization has a direct effect: manifestation on Stock market privatized enterprises divert part of the inflationary demand.

Massive consumer spending can be an effective means of short-term anti-inflationary policy Import and partial implementation of government strategic reserves. In countries with no market economy such an anti-inflationary reserve is also possible, such as the sale to the population of part of the accumulated funds of enterprises material resources industrial purposes.

Short-term reserves for reducing current demand.

Increasing the interest rate on deposits, if the government intends to influence the behavior of owners of monetary benefits, to encourage them to increase savings due to current demand. for deposits should be no less than the sum of the current price growth and the level of adaptive inflation expectations. Otherwise, it will hardly be possible to attract savings, because investors, transferring their money at ba% rates, assume that they will not suffer losses. However, the possibilities of such an anti-inflationary maneuver are unlimited, since an increase in the Interest on Deposits is fraught with an increase in the cost of credit, which may negatively affect the size of investments.

Increase in Interest on State bonds, distribution of joint stock ownership, Privatization Selling land can attract significant savings. Such measures have a real anti-inflationary effect and make it possible to stop the destructive process of hyperinflation.

To reduce the level of Liquidity of savings, it is practiced to increase the Interest rate on time deposits and other methods designed to keep Deposits in the Banking system longer. Sometimes a temporary freeze on demand deposits is introduced.

Confiscation-type monetary reform is aimed at expropriating part of the income belonging to the population and reducing current demand. Such a radical option has nothing to do with the causes and mechanisms of Inflation and is only capable of reducing the size of the inflation gap for a short time. Confiscation reforms are rarely implemented, usually after Fighting and other socio-political cataclysms. A government that has undertaken such a risky business in peacetime can count on success if it enjoys the unlimited trust of citizens who are ready to sacrifice Benefits for the sake of future prosperity.

An appreciation of the national currency can be used as a short-term anti-inflationary measure. If domestic markets are sufficiently competitive and there are no various types of foreign trade restrictions, this measure causes a downward trend in the prices of goods and services imported from abroad, and, consequently, pushes down the general level of prices in the economy. It is impossible not to point out the considerable inconsistency of such regulation. When it goes up, Exports become more expensive, and it becomes increasingly difficult for them to penetrate foreign markets. Therefore, trade deteriorates, and after it, so does. Too tall Exchange rate scares off foreign investors and has a negative impact on foreign investment in the national economy.

Anti-inflationary policy in the Russian Federation

In the context of the shock transition of the Russian Federation to a market economy, structural changes occurred. As a result of Privatization, a private sector, millions of shareholders appeared. The Russians were involved in a massive speculative game to increase the rate of Securities, as well as the American dollar and depreciate the ruble. Questionable financial pyramids such as MMM have emerged at the private level and GKO-OFZ at the state level. The emerging market economy is periodically shaken by financial, stock exchange, currency, banking crises in conditions of economic recession. Hidden Inflation, previously manifested in commodity shortages, became obvious. Ineffective IMF recommendations in the spirit of liberalism and monetarism, without taking into account the specifics of the Russian Federation, stimulated a long-term decline in production and strong inflation.

Since 1992, inflation in the Russian Federation has developed into stagflation (a combination of economic recession - stagnation - with inflation). Retail prices increased in 1992 by 26.1 times, in 1993 - 9.4 times, 1994 - 3.2 times, 1995 - 2.3 times in the context of a decline in GDP, the Industrial Production Index and investments.

The decline in production in the Russian Federation (in 1992 - 1996) was almost twice the world record Economic collapse 1923 - 1933. The share of unprofitable enterprises in Industry was 50.1% (as of September 1, 1998), construction - 42.3%, and in transport 59.2%. Actual Bankruptcy production sector and the imbalance of the economy became a fundamental factor in inflation, as the commodity supply of the ruble decreased.

A new phenomenon in the Russian Federation is a decrease in the rate of Inflation from 1996 to the end of August 1998 (21.8% in 1996, 11% in 1997). Inflation was suppressed, but a huge inflationary potential remained, since its reproductive factors were not overcome. The main defect of the Anti-Inflationary Policy was that in the Russian Federation, for the first time in world practice, demand compression was applied in the conditions of an Economic recession through non-payment of wages, pensions, and benefits. Thus, the State transferred its financial difficulties to the population. Abroad, deflationary policies are usually carried out in conditions of “overheating” of the economic situation, and its last resort- blocking wage growth. Deflation in the Russian Federation contributed to a sharp aggravation of socio-economic contradictions, which ultimately aggravated the inflationary Process.

One of the reasons for the deflationary Policy was the elevation to the rank of official dogma of liberalism and monetarist concept without taking into account the difficulties of the Russian Federation's transition to a market economy and contrary to experience foreign countries. They have long abandoned reckless liberalism and pure monetarism and combine their postulates with recipes Keynesianism about the need for government regulation.

Russian reformers relied on a straightforward monetarist interpretation of the dependence of Inflation only on excess Monetary emission, Budget deficit and instability Exchange rates and exaggerated the effectiveness market regulation(The market supposedly will do its job better than the State).

Features of the Inflationary Process in the Russian Federation. Summarizing the results of the study of inflationary processes in the process of market transformation Russian economy, we can highlight the following features of Inflation.

1) From the perspective of characterizing the types of Inflation, it should be noted that Demand Inflation, which prevailed at the initial stage of market transformations in the Russian Federation, as a result of the liberalization of Prices and the implementation of a tight monetary Policy, was transformed in the 1990s into Cost Inflation, which occurred in the context of a decline in production and rising unemployment. Since the late 1990s, the importance of Demand Inflation has increased, which has been combined with Cost Inflation. From an industry perspective, the fuel and energy complex especially stands out in this regard. This is Cost Inflation in the Russian economy.

The Roots of Cost Inflation in transition economy lie in the recent past, and its mechanism is constantly fed by the modern type of economic development of the Country, its Economic policy. It is worth remembering the system of planned Pricing, as well as the closedness and relative isolation of the Russian economy from the world Market. The system of planned pricing was based on the concept of cheap resources, and therefore prices for fuel and raw materials energetic resources were greatly underestimated relative to the world level, and the world Competition this position was not threatened. These were the starting conditions in these Industries, characterizing a high degree of Market imperfection. Naturally, the situation in these Industries begins to change as prices become liberalized. Lack of competition in the Domestic market, despite Economic collapse, contributes to raising prices for fuel and raw materials. The underdevelopment of a common market infrastructure, political decentralization and the collapse of economic ties only strengthen this Process. In parallel, the gradual entry of the Russian economy into the World Economy begins, primarily due to the same fuel, energy and raw materials industries. The impact of the external Market on the internal economic situation, including inflationary processes, is increasing. Due to the Difference between domestic and world prices, export-oriented fuel, energy and raw materials industries receive new potential for increasing prices Domestic market. Since the products of these Industries are necessary for the national economy, and are almost absent (while domestic products are cheaper than imported ones), the State is forced to feed the Acquirer with financial resources for Payments of this product. The mechanism triggered in this case is Cost Inflation. While it continues, there are no strict incentives to save Costs at all stages of industrial processing, and Prices rise along the chain from primary processing of raw materials to final consumption. It would be possible to restrain this Process by regulating domestic Prices and conditions for Exporting fuel and energy products and raw materials Industries (through strict licensing, quotas and Customs taxes). The economic policy of the Russian Federation has a different focus - the speedy liberalization of these Prices and Export conditions. As long as the product prices basic industries will not reach the global level, the group of export-oriented Industries will remain the main generator of Cost Inflation in the modern transition economy. Presence in the Russian economy in the first half of 1995. persistent Cost Inflation, as well as fairly strong inflation expectations, leads to the conclusion that it is too early to talk about a radical reduction in Price growth and Inflation in the long term. The ongoing macroeconomic stabilization will contribute to this process, but the growth of Inflation will be constantly fueled by the Market of Basic Industries.

2) Monetary factors of Inflation, which play a significant role in the development of inflationary Processes in a developed market economy, did not have a significant impact on Inflation in the Russian Federation.

3) Inflationary Processes in the transformed economy of the Russian Federation represent unbalanced Inflation. This was reflected both in the faster growth rates of prices for material resources and prices for paid services.

4) Throughout the entire period of market transformations in the Russian economy, the effect of external economic Inflation was manifested, associated with the dynamics of the exchange rate, net Exports, world prices for exported products, the structure of Exports and Import. It manifested itself to the greatest extent after the August crisis 1998 and in the subsequent period due to the increase in world prices for fuel and energy resources.

5) In the transformed economy of the Russian Federation, hidden inflation was observed, associated with the State’s debt to workers’ wages budgetary organizations and social transfers to the population, and private companies for the payment of wages to employees. Due to the significant amount of Wage Debts in the 1990s, the official rate of Inflation was lower than the potential that would have been had income been received on time to the population.

6) Inflation in the Russian Federation occurred in the 1990s with a significant reduction in the aggregate demand of economic entities. There was a decrease in all elements of aggregate demand, with the exception of net Exports: Consumer spending Houses debts economy, gross private investment, government Costs, which also confirms the decisive role of non-monetary factors of Inflation in the Russian Federation. Decline Consumer spending was associated with the depreciation of personal savings accumulated in the USSR as a result of price liberalization and a decrease in current real incomes of the population. A significant reduction in the investment costs of firms in the 1990s was due to a significant share of unprofitable enterprises, high levels of taxes and interest rates, the export of capital, and inflationary expectations. A significant reduction in government costs was associated with a reduction Tax base Enterprises, evasion of taxpayers from paying Taxes, appropriation as a result of Privatization of a significant part of natural lease by private owners.

7) The shadow economy has a significant impact on inflationary processes in the Russian Federation. Its impact is primarily due to the fact that due to non-payment of Taxes in this area, the aggregate Demand in the economy increases relatively. In addition, State Budget Revenues are reduced and the possibility, under appropriate economic conditions, of a deficit.

8) Inflationary Processes in the Russian Federation intensified the Process of significant differentiation of the population's income as a result of the implementation of the Privatization of State Property program. The income differentiation coefficient in the Russian Federation (in 2004 - 15.0 times) significantly exceeds its value in developed countries (3-8 times) and former countries with the planned economy of Eastern and Central Europe (4.5-5.5 times).

9) In the first quarter of 1996, industrial production was 49 percent compared to similar Period 1991. Part of this decline is explained by such mentioned “external” reasons as the disintegration of the single Market of the former USSR and the collapse of the CMEA, but another is closely related to the ongoing reforms and stabilization policies. A significant part of the decline, in our opinion, is due to the rapid “opening” of the economy, as a result of which many light and food enterprises Industry, consumer electronics, etc. found themselves squeezed out on the domestic market.

The relationship between the decline in production and Inflation is manifested in the following. Firstly, in the process of production reduction, Costs per unit of output increase significantly, since a significant share of them consists of “fixed Costs”. In particular, the recession was not accompanied by an adequate reduction in the number of employees. Thus, a decrease in production volumes creates cost pressure on Prices. Secondly , within the framework of stabilization programs, the government is forced to reduce its Costs, thereby reducing final Demand.This entails an additional reduction in Money Emission and, consequently, a further reduction in Tax receipts.

The traditional idea of ​​the optimizing impact of market mechanisms on the structure of production is based on the premise of the free flow of resources from depressed industries to more efficient ones. As for labor resources, their territorial mobility in the Russian Federation has always been sharply limited due to the shortage of housing and the lack of its Market, large distances between industrial centers. It makes no sense to talk about capital flows in conditions when the volume of industrial capital investments has decreased by 4 times compared to the pre-reform years. Uncertainty, unpredictability of even the near future (in particular, due to high Inflation), unsettled property rights, etc. were a brake on domestic and foreign investment, and, consequently, for restructuring the production structure. As a result, the imbalance between supply and demand was resolved in only one way: by reducing supply.

in many sectors of the Russian economy, it allows the use of factors of increasing demand to slow down Inflation as a result of more complete use of unused capacity and, on this basis, a reduction in average and marginal Costs, growth in national production volumes and total supply of products.

10) The system of measures to combat inflation in the 1990s was dominated by monetary methods of regulation, which are still decisive in state economic policy. Tight monetary policy in the 1990s was reflected in a significant decrease in the monetization coefficient and the development of barter transactions and mutual offsets. At the same time, it led to a significant decline in production and a sharp reduction in investment in fixed assets. In the 2000s, the importance increased financial policy in reducing the influence of Cost Inflation factors, which was reflected in the reduction of Tax rates and the formation of a surplus State Budget.

11) Antimonopoly policy as a means of regulating inflationary processes is characterized by insufficient effectiveness of action, which is manifested in the rapid growth rates of prices for natural products Monopolists compared to the rate of inflation.

Stages of formation and model of Anti-inflationary policy in the Russian Federation. Target

Anti-inflationary policy is not the suppression of Inflation at any cost, but the management of the inflationary Process (market and government methods) in the interests of raising national production and economic security people. Judging by world experience, a small Inflation is acceptable if it increases effective Demand and thereby stimulates economic growth.

The transition to a market economic mechanism, where Demand determines the size of production through the Price level, objectively required reforming the entire Price system. Price reform was one of the objectives of the government program in 1991, but the reform was not carried out very carefully. Initially, the emphasis was placed on a gradual change in production and prices under the control of the State. Manufacturer prices were adjusted in January, and retail prices changed only in April. On average, prices increased by 60%. Following the increase in prices, it was reduced Income tax Enterprises, which allowed them to increase wage payments. Thus, Profits grew and were not taxed, and the budget was under a huge burden of growing subsidies and compensations. As a result, in 1991, retail prices increased by 142%, and wholesale prices Industry by 236%. At the same time, production volume decreased by 11%, and in general for the Period since 1989 - by 17%. The result was an imbalance commodity market and the development of a total deficit, aggravated by inflationary expectations.

People who have at their disposal certain amounts of cash and learned from the experience of the January exchange, began in February-March to invest them even more actively in Goods, protecting their savings from possible actions to take further steps monetary reform, and from depreciation as a result of the upcoming price increase. All this led to increased prices on the black market, since the sphere of state retail trade had long been in a state of crisis due to a lack of goods. In order to have a constant supply of cash on hand, the population reduced their deposits in Savings Bank institutions. Political A crisis 1991 further complicated the situation and led to the abandonment of the concept of gradual reform.

January 2, 1992 80% of wholesale and 90% of retail consumer prices were released. The removal of price controls was accompanied by the liberalization of foreign trade operations and the ruble exchange rate. Price liberalization caused an almost fivefold increase retail prices for the first three months of 1992 compared to December 1991, and wholesale prices already increased almost three times in the first 2 months. According to the calculations of the reformists, prices in the Country should have increased no more than 3-4 times. In fact, the price increase in 1992 increased 26 times.

In 1993, prices for consumer goods increased at an annualized rate of 884%. Hyperinflation demanded banknotes higher denomination to ensure the growth of Prices by the Money Supply Aggregate. In 1993, new banknotes in denominations of 5,000, 10,000 and 50,000 rubles were introduced into circulation. To suppress inflation, a monetarist approach was chosen; in this regard, since 1994, anti-inflationary policy was carried out by three methods:

restriction of monetary emission by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation;

reducing the budget deficit by sequestering government costs;

curbing fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate against foreign currencies by setting limits and using foreign exchange intervention.

But the decrease in the rate of price growth did not mean the achievement of real financial stabilization, since the budget crisis, the crisis of non-payments, and dualism were not overcome monetary system, instability of the Banking system, and most importantly - stagnation in the economy and investment. The peculiarities of the formation of inflationary processes in the Russian Federation were such that the exchange rate had an extremely strong impact on the state of the monetary sphere, the process of financial stabilization. This determined the effectiveness of the use since mid-1995, in addition to the quantitative monetary goal of Monetary Policy in the form of limiting the rate of change in the exchange rate of the National currency to American dollar within the framework of the currency corridor system.

Conducted since mid-1995. exchange rate policy aimed at stabilizing and predictability of the ruble exchange rate played an important role in normalizing the macroeconomic situation in the Russian Federation. The practice of establishing the boundaries of possible changes in the ruble exchange rate by the Russian government and the Russian Central Bank, first for several months, for six months, and then for a whole year in advance against the backdrop of ongoing Russian Central Bank together with the Government of the Russian Federation, Monetary Policy ensured smooth and predictable dynamics of the exchange rate in 1995-1997, made it possible to effectively contain Inflation, and helped Enterprises and the population gain clear guidelines when planning their economic activities.

The anti-inflationary policy of reform governments, carried out from 1995 to August 1998, also included the so-called non-inflationary method of covering the budget deficit. Since 1995 Issue Government securities became the main source of covering the federal budget deficit. During 1995 - 1996 everything went relatively well, but ultimately the system showed its failure.

The main reason for the final failure of the “civilized” covering of the Budget Deficit was the mismatch and even contradiction of two directions of financial Policy: monetary and budgetary. Monetary policy led to a fall in production and revenue volumes, while budget policy was based on an expected increase in at least the nominal volume of revenue.

Another important defect of the Anti-inflationary policy in 1996 - 1998. was that in the Russian Federation, for the first time in world practice, Deflation- compression of demand - in conditions of economic recession through non-payment of wages, pensions, benefits. Thus, the State shifted its financial difficulties onto the shoulders of the population. Abroad, deflationary policy, as a rule, is carried out only in conditions of “overheating” of the economic situation, and its extreme measure is to block wage growth. in the Russian Federation contributed to the aggravation of socio-economic contradictions, which ultimately aggravated the inflationary Process.

The Monetary and Financial Crisis of 1998, which gave impetus to a new round of Inflation, proved the ineffectiveness of monetarist methods of suppressing Inflation. The applied monetarist recommendations to combat inflation did not take into account its multifactorial nature and undermined the foundations of the national economy of the Russian Federation. It becomes obvious that to curb inflation growth rates it is necessary A complex approach to anti-inflationary policy.

After the Financial Crisis, the Russian Budget for 1999 forecast annual inflation at 30%. A significant inflationary potential remained, which, with the slightest push, could again manifest itself in the growth of consumer prices. Decrease in the level of Inflation in 2000-2003. was achieved thanks to the implementation of a balanced budgetary and monetary Policy that corresponds to the adaptive capabilities of economic development (state budgets in 2000-2003 were executed with a surplus); improving financial discipline, reducing non-payments and barter.

Unlike 2004, since mid-2005 there has been a steady downward trend in price growth rates. For June-October 2005, the growth rate of consumer prices was more than two times lower than last year's figures. The decrease in the rate of Inflation in the second half of 2005 was affected by the slowdown in the growth of money supply units in the first half of 2005 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, the suspension of growth in prices for fuels and lubricants from September 19 to the end of 2005 by the decision of the largest producers of petroleum products, a significant seasonal decline Prices for agricultural products in the summer due to the good Harvest of 2005, an increase in Imports of meat and other food products.

Situation and prospects for combating inflation in 2008. Inflation in 2007

amounted to 11.9%, and in December 2007 amounted to 1.1%. Meanwhile, the original Forecast The government assumed inflation of 7-8%, later it was revised to 11-11.5%.

For 2007 as a whole, price growth was 11.9%, which is slightly lower than the last official Forecast- 12%. Note that inflation last year was higher than in 2006 (9%), in 2005 (10.9%), in 2004 (11.7%), and slightly lower than the price increase in 2003 (12% ). In December 2006, prices increased by 0.8%. The consensus forecast for Inflation, compiled by Interfax at the end of December, assumed an increase in Prices in December of 1.3%, for the year as a whole - 12%.

Compared to November, the rate of growth in prices for most groups of food products slowed down in December. In November, the growth rate of prices accelerated significantly - to 3.6% from 2.3% in November. Tariffs for passenger transport services, after increasing in November by 1.2%, sharply increased in price by 3.8% in December.

On December 13, the “Action Plan to Reduce the Growth Rate of Consumer Prices for 2007-2008”, prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, was published. It presents developments to combat rising Inflation. Despite the fact that the real level of Inflation this year significantly exceeded the forecast (actual 12% against the expected 7-8%), the program is not designed to take any urgent measures. The main provisions of the plan will be put into effect in the second quarter of 2008.

The issue of slowing the rapid rise in food prices is especially acute. First of all, attention will be paid to the implementation of the government decree “On agreements between executive bodies state Authorities subjects of Russia and economic entities on reducing and maintaining prices for certain types of socially significant food products of essential necessity" and the Law "On the Protection of Competition". In the future, in the second quarter of the coming year, it is planned to closely address the problem of financing agriculture. In particular, according to the message IA "Alliance Media", ways of implementation will be considered" agreements program for the development of agriculture and regulation of markets for agricultural products, raw materials and food for 2008-2012." It is worth noting that the Minister of Economic Development and Trade Elvira Nabiullina in her report stated a significant increase in the volume of investments in the development of the agricultural complex: we are talking about a forty percent increase compared to last year.The goal of further support for farmers is to fill the Market with high-quality domestic products.

The reforms will also affect housing and communal services. In the coming year, a significant increase in the cost of housing and communal services is expected. In this regard, the government decided to partially liberalize prices in this area (some prices will still remain under state control). As Vremya Novostei explains, the essence of these measures is that the government will draw up a list of services, prices for which will be set and regulated by the state.

Analysts believe that this move will have virtually no impact on inflation. For example, as reported by Rosfincom, the Troika Dialogue Organization, Anton Struchenevsky suggests that the importance of such measures is exaggerated and that inflation indicators will remain high. Moreover, there are suggestions that liberalization of tariffs will be followed by a significant increase compared to current levels. The Times quotes Alexander Morozov: “If Competition develops slowly, then tariffs after liberalization will rise quickly; if they are attractive for creating private businesses, they will soon decline. Before liberalization is carried out, it is necessary to create an institutional framework for the development of Competition, which not in housing and communal services and state monopolies."

As a result, with the successful implementation of the program under the “action plan to reduce the growth rate of consumer prices for 2007-2008”, it is expected to reduce the level of Inflation to the 7-8% expected at the beginning of the year, and then bring it to 3 percent. It should be noted that many economists, including representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, are cautious about such calculations: a reduction in inflation by 4-5% in just a year seems unlikely.

In the modern world there are many problems that we can rightfully call global. Inflation is one of them. It has existed since the time of the economic development of mankind, but it fully manifested itself relatively recently, immediately affecting the economies of all countries: developed and developing. All the progressive economic thought of mankind put a lot of effort into fighting it, but Inflation was not completely defeated, because... new and more complex forms appeared. In some Countries, certain successes have already been achieved, others, like Russia, are at the beginning of this path, which puts them in a privileged position. They, using the accumulated historical experience, can avoid the mistakes of others. However, copying the actions of other countries, even those that have successfully emerged from the inflationary crisis, usually leads to disastrous consequences. Therefore, when forming an Anti-Inflationary Policy, it is necessary to take into account the unique features of the State’s economy:

1) Its monopolistic nature.

2) The collapse of the previous monetary and financial system Countries and difficulties with the formation of a new one, adequate to Russian conditions.

3) The inconvertibility of the ruble and its displacement Domestic market Countries had strong currencies.

4) The presence of a powerful shadow economy that developed during suppressed Inflation.

5) The weakness of the "Salary - Prices" spiral and the huge role of the "Raw materials prices - general price level" spiral.

Intense inflationary pressure always accompanies the transformation of an administrative-commercial system into a market one. Its roots are in the structural and systemic imbalances of the developing economy, so now we need a powerful and tough policy, including a wide range of monetary and fiscal measures, we need to remove all barriers to the operation of market mechanisms in order to overcome all structural, managerial and monetary underlying causes of Inflation.

- a system of measures to prevent and overcome inflation. The measures taken by the government depend on the nature and level of inflation. In English: Anti inflation policy See also: Anti-inflation policy Monetary policy Inflation Financial dictionary... ... Financial Dictionary

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Course work

on the topic: Anti-inflationary policy of the state

Introduction

1. Socio-economic consequences of inflation

1.1 The concept and essence of inflation

1.2 Concept, essence and goals of anti-inflationary policy

2. Various theoretical approaches to the implementation of anti-inflationary policy of the state

2.1 Various anti-inflationary policy measures

2.2 State forecasts for reducing inflation

3. Features of anti-inflationary policy in Russia

3.1 Features of the formation of anti-inflationary policy in Russia

3.2 Prospects for anti-inflationary policy

Conclusion

List of sources used

Introduction

As an economic phenomenon, inflation has existed for a long time. The emergence of inflation is associated with the first period of the appearance of money. The concept of “inflation” (from Latin inflatio - inflation) first began to appear in North America in 1861-1865. It meant a process leading to an increase in paper money circulation. After some time, this concept began to be used in Great Britain and France, mainly among financiers and bankers. The concept of inflation became widespread in economic literature in the 20th century. after the First World War, and in Soviet economic literature - from the mid-20s.

Inflation is an inevitable companion to the long-term development of an economy with flexible prices. Level maintenance full employment without inflation is the goal of state regulation of a market economy. Inflation is the most acute problem of modern economic development, therefore it requires, first of all, clarification as a socio-economic concept.

Almost all countries with market economies have gone through inflation. Studying their experience can provide answers to many questions. However, Russia has its own specifics: the absence of a self-adjusting, self-regulating economic system. Many causes and factors of inflation in Russia do not relate to economics at all. Inflation is one of the most acute problems of modern economic development in many countries of the world. Therefore, it is worth considering this process in more detail.

The problem of inflation occupies an important place in economic science, since its indicators and socio-economic consequences play a serious role in assessing the economic security of the country and the world economy. The relevance of this issue in modern conditions is determined by the need to clarify the essence, underlying causes and mechanism of development of inflation, its features and the main directions of anti-inflationary policy in Russia, taking into account world experience. The turning point in Russian history is characterized by enormous inflation in all forms and forms. Inflation in Russia has not yet been defeated and is not fully controlled, so the problem of anti-inflationary policy remains particularly relevant and will be so in the near future. The negative social and economic consequences of inflation are forcing governments different countries pursue certain economic policies aimed at combating inflation.

The fight against inflation and the development of a special anti-inflation program is a necessary element of stabilizing the economy. Such a program should be based on an analysis of the factors determining inflation, a set of measures economic policy, helping to eliminate inflation or reduce the level of inflation to reasonable limits. All this determines the relevance of the chosen research topic.

The purpose of the course work is to reveal the features of the state's anti-inflationary policy.

Coursework objectives:

Reveal the concept and essence of inflation;

Consider the concept, essence and goals of anti-inflationary policy;

Analyze various measures of anti-inflationary policy;

Characterize the government's forecasts for reducing inflation in the Russian Federation;

Study the features of the formation of anti-inflationary policy in Russia;

Determine the prospects for anti-inflationary policy in the Russian Federation.

When writing the work, such methods of economic theory as the method of induction and the method of deduction were used.

The work contains two sections. The first section examines inflation as a multifactorial process. Section two provides an overview of the direct directions and main provisions for regulating and managing inflation as an economic process.

1 . Socio-economic consequences of inflation

1.1 The concept and essence of inflation

Inflation is a complex socio-economic phenomenon. As an economic phenomenon, inflation has existed for a long time. It is believed that it appeared almost with the emergence of money, the functioning of which is inextricably linked. But if previously inflation occurred, as a rule, in emergency circumstances (for example, during a war, the state issued a large amount of paper money to finance its military expenses), then in the last two or three decades it has become chronic in many countries.

Inflation is one of the most serious economic diseases of the twentieth century. Its dangerous symptoms have been recorded in market-type farms. Those economies where market mechanisms are destroyed by the administrative-command system are also not immune to inflation. In its origin, inflation is a phenomenon associated with the movement of money. But, originating in an unbalanced money market, inflation viruses spread beyond this sphere, causing negative processes in other parts of the economic body: they affect production, consumption, etc. And the more advanced the inflation disease, the more complex the problem facing the state, the more extensive the set of anti-inflationary regulation measures. After all, it is no longer only the money market that needs to be treated, but also public finances, the investment process, current consumption and other areas of the economy. During a period of rapid, uncontrolled hyperinflation, the fight against it becomes an all-consuming concern of the state. Any of his actions take on an anti-inflationary orientation.

In other words, inflation is an imbalance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Regardless of the state of the monetary sphere, commodity prices may increase due to changes in the dynamics of labor productivity, cyclical and seasonal fluctuations, structural changes in the reproduction system, market monopolization, government regulation of the economy, the introduction of new tax rates, devaluation and revaluation of the monetary unit, changes in market conditions, impact foreign economic relations, natural Disasters and so on. Consequently, price increases are caused by various reasons. The inflation process can develop in two main directions. If macroeconomic disequilibrium towards demand is expressed in a constant increase in prices, inflation should be considered open. When it is accompanied by general government price controls, inflation becomes suppressed.

In Soviet economic science for decades, inflation in relation to our conditions remained one of the forbidden topics. According to the prevailing dogmas, inflation is a typical disease of a market economy, generated by the anarchy inherent in the capitalist mode of production and, therefore, obviously impossible in a planned economy. This theoretical view was based on the practice of state price control, centralized pricing, long-term maintenance of prices for essential goods at a constant level, and in the past - their periodic reduction. Such stability was achieved through large government subsidies, the sources of which were ultimately taxes. Inflation was present here too, but in a hidden (suppressed) form, not clearly recorded.

Inflation can be quantified using the following indicators:

Deflator

The deflator is characterized by a change in the set economic benefits, i.e. the possibility of mutual substitution of economic benefits is taken into account. However, this does not reflect the ongoing decline in the level of well-being. Consequently, the deflator underestimates the general price level and the inflation rate.

Consumer price index:

This index is calculated for a constant set of economic goods, and, therefore, does not take into account the possibility of replacing more expensive goods with less expensive ones. Thus, the consumer price index overestimates the general price level and the rate of inflation.

Fisher index:

Inflation rate:

where P is the price level of the current year, P is the price level of the previous year

1. Rule 70: doubling the inflation rate will occur in t years: t=.

1.2 Concept, essence and goals of anti-inflationary policy

One of the most complex issues economic policy is to control inflation. The methods of managing it are ambiguous and contradictory in their consequences.

Inflation management involves the use of a set of measures that help, to a certain extent, combine price increases (minor) with income stabilization. Process management tools used in different countries vary depending on the nature and level of inflation, the characteristics of the economic situation, and the specifics of the economic mechanism. In general, in industrialized countries (in particular, in the United States and most countries of Western Europe), the rate of inflationary growth can be kept within fairly narrow limits.

The negative social and economic consequences of inflation force governments of different countries to pursue certain economic policies. Anti-inflationary policy includes a wide range of different monetary, budgetary measures, tax measures, stabilization programs and actions to regulate and distribute income. A very important condition for anti-inflationary policy is the independence of the government from pressure groups: anti-inflationary measures must be carried out consistently and carefully.

It is important to note that the main way to combat inflation should be to combat its underlying causes. The goals of anti-inflationary policy should primarily be:

reduction of inflation potential.

predictability of inflation dynamics.

reduction in inflation rates.

price stabilization.

The strategic goal of anti-inflationary policy is to bring the growth rate of the money supply in line with the growth rate of the commodity supply (or real GDP) in the short term, and the volume and structure of aggregate supply with the volume and structure of aggregate demand in the long term. To solve these problems, a set of measures must be implemented aimed at containing and regulating all three components of inflation: demand, costs and expectations. Assessing the nature of anti-inflationary policy, we can distinguish two general approaches.

1. Policies aimed at reducing the budget deficit, limiting credit expansion, and curbing money emission. In accordance with monetarist recipes, targeting is used - regulating the growth rate of the money supply within certain limits (in accordance with the GDP growth rate).

2. A policy of regulating prices and incomes, with the goal of linking the growth of earnings with rising prices. One of the means is income indexation, determined by the level of the subsistence minimum or the standard consumer basket and consistent with the dynamics of the price index. To curb undesirable phenomena, limits on salary increases or freezes may be established, the issuance of loans may be limited, etc.

If inflation rises as a result of rising production costs, then investment should be encouraged in every possible way. And since the governments of developed countries cannot use strict methods of directly directing prices, they again have to resort to methods such as increasing tax rates.

As shown world practice, the stabilization program, which includes a set of interrelated measures in the field of budgetary and monetary policy, helps to reduce inflation in a short time. As a rule, it is carried out as a single complex, and foreign governments and international organizations often participate in this process. The main objectives of the stabilization program are:

Reducing government spending, including cutting subsidies;

Tax increases;

Decrease in lending volumes of commercial banks;

Increase in the issuance of treasury bonds and volumes of foreign loans;

Increasing social spending for the needs of low-income groups of the population;

Fixing the exchange rate national currency.

In implementing stabilization measures, along with economic logic, political foresight is also required. It is known that raising taxes is an extremely unpopular step of any government. And this measure does not find support among the population. Therefore, it must be offset by increased spending on social needs. But since the stabilization package is primarily aimed at reducing the budget deficit, foreign loans can help the government pay for socially significant programs.

Preparing a stabilization program and starting to implement it is quite difficult. The main task is for it to start working. Therefore, many countries are trying to simultaneously make changes to government spending while reducing government spending. economic legislation. This applies, for example, to a law prohibiting the Central Bank from issuing loans to the government or commercial banks.

Experience shows that it is very difficult to stop inflation using organizational measures alone. This requires structural reform aimed at overcoming the imbalances that have arisen in the economy.

Specific methods for curbing inflation must be developed after determining the nature of inflation and identifying the main and related factors that spur the development of inflationary processes. Each inflation is specific and requires the use of a set of measures that correspond to this specificity.

Inflation can be monetary or predominantly structural in nature; its sources can be excessive demand (demand inflation) or rapid growth in wages and prices for materials and components (cost inflation). Inflation can be stimulated by an unjustifiably low exchange rate of the national currency or an unjustified lifting of restrictions on regulated prices of so-called price-setting goods (fuel, agricultural raw materials). Inflation is stimulated by the state budget deficit, and the monopoly of suppliers and manufacturers.

In practice, there is not just one, but a complex of causes and interrelated factors. Therefore, methods of combating the inflationary process are usually complex in nature, constantly being refined and adjusted.

2 . Various theoretical approaches to conducting antiininflationary policy of the state

2.1 Various anti-inflationary policy measures

There are various methods to combat inflation. The use of one or another combination of anti-inflationary policy instruments depends mainly on the type of inflation and the reasons that caused it.

According to Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor S. Lushin: “In addition to distinguishing between types of inflation (demand, supply), it is important to take into account that inflation is influenced not only by economic, but also by political and social factors. Historical experience shows that wars, revolutions, reforms and other social upheavals are usually accompanied by outbreaks of inflation.”

One cannot but agree with his opinion, however, outbreaks of inflation during social upheavals are also understandable from the point of view of monetarism: at such moments in the history of individual countries, their governments use all possible ways to restore calm, which requires a lot of money. Therefore, governments often “turn on the printing press” to obtain these funds, or, if this does not happen, a budget deficit or public debt is formed, which leads to an increase in the price level.

Inflation largely depends on the volume of money supply. Therefore, changes in the money supply can actively influence the level of inflation. The rate of inflation can be reduced by reducing the money supply.

Various methods are used to influence the money supply, below are some of them:

interest rate policy (discount rate, refinancing rate);

change in the required reserve ratio;

changes in the volume of refinancing of commercial banks;

open market operations;

control over money issue.

An effective tool for regulating the money supply in circulation is the interest rate policy, at which National Bank provides loans to commercial banks. In world practice, the discount rate, from the point of view of commercial banks, is the cost of excess reserves. Therefore, when the national bank reduces the refinancing rate, it reduces the costs of commercial banks, which encourages banks to obtain loans. Receiving loans from commercial banks increases the amount of available funds. Banks are beginning to more actively issue loans to organizations and individuals, which increases the money supply as a whole.

By raising the interest rate, the national bank provides less incentive for banks to make loans, which reduces the money supply.

John Keynes noted that changing the discount rate "is chiefly a means of regulating quantity" bank money"and was often used to limit the money supply."

Changes in the required reserve ratio. International experience shows that even minor fluctuations in the required reserve ratio lead to significant changes in the size of the money supply (this is directly related to the concept of the bank multiplier, its existence is explained by the fact that each of the banks in various interbank transactions is required to make contributions in accordance with the required reserve ratio, which leads to significant changes in the amount of money). Therefore, the required reserve ratio is often not changed, and this fiscal policy instrument is used only in extreme cases.

An excessive increase in the required reserve ratio is fraught with a decrease in the business activity of banks and the inability to effectively use attracted resources, which, in turn, is a brake on development banking system and could lead to its crisis.

A significant decrease in the reserve ratio can lead to a sharp increase in the money supply and, as a result, an increase in the price level, that is, an increase in the rate of inflation.

John Keynes considered one of the most important tasks facing the central bank to be control over the total volume of “bank money” created by commercial banks. He believed that the advantage of this method was that it had a direct effect on the value bank reserves and leads them to change in the direction desired by the central bank. It is noteworthy that John Keynes revealed the essence and mechanism of action of this method in his work “Treatise on Money”, published before the start of practical application norms of required reserves.

Open market operations involve, on the one hand, the purchase and sale of government bonds by a national bank, and on the other hand, by commercial banks, organizations and the public.

By selling bonds, the national bank can reduce the money supply or use the money from the sale to reduce the budget deficit that is not covered by tax revenues. The effectiveness of the open market system largely depends on the level of development of the financial system and the public's trust in the government.

John Keynes concluded that open market operations had become the main instrument of fiscal policy, but he clearly exaggerated the role and effectiveness of this instrument. Regular use of this instrument, he wrote, “enables the central bank to maintain the level of commercial bank reserves at whatever level it desires.” However, the use of this method is limited, since with a significant increase in the mass of government bonds, public debt increases, which leads to some negative consequences, including those related to the instability of the national currency and inflation.

It should be noted that the effect of the instruments described above largely depends on the level of development of the banking system and on the share of the monetary aggregate M0 in the total money supply. The smaller its share (that is, the more non-cash payments are used to pay for economic goods), the easier it will be to manage the money supply using the tools described above.

A very important tool of anti-inflationary policy is control over money emission. It should be carried out through three channels: lending to the state, the economy and the increase in gold and foreign exchange reserves.

The issue of money must take place within certain limits and must be strictly controlled. In cases of shortage of money supply, unofficial “emission centers” begin to emerge, issuing various money surrogates that saturate a significant part of economic turnover. The appearance of such surrogates makes it difficult to calculate the real amount of money, which leads to making erroneous decisions. In addition, a decrease in the money supply reduces aggregate demand, which leads to a subsequent decrease in aggregate supply and the collapse of the economy.

Excessive emission of money leads to a significant increase in the money supply, which, in turn, causes an increase in aggregate demand and, as a consequence, an increase in the price level, since economic entities are not able to increase supply within a short period of time.

The logic of inflation regulation, according to Keynes, is as follows: control cannot be focused only on the dynamics cash circulation; regulation of inflation must be carried out largely through control of "bank money". However, in general, he considered control over the cash supply in circulation to be an important element in regulating inflation due to the fact that this factor is the easiest to regulate by the central bank.

John Keynes viewed monetary regulation as an art that must be applied in a timely manner and in the right proportions; considered it necessary to constantly develop his technology so that regulation would be quick and effective.

In general, for correct regulation of emissions, it was developed Golden Rule monetarism, which recommends a predictable fiscal policy with a sustainable growth of the money supply by 3 - 5% per year.

The above tools for fighting inflation can be used by the government to fight inflation, but it is a mistake to believe that monetary tools are the only way to influence inflation. The volume of money supply, of course, influences inflationary processes, but its influence is not unlimited. You cannot fight inflation only by compressing the money supply.

On the level of inflation, in addition to the size of the money supply, budget deficit and government debt, is greatly influenced by the real state of the economy. Therefore, the strategy of economic growth with cost-push inflation can significantly help to “defeat” inflation.

Thus, when selecting anti-inflationary policy instruments, a fairly reliable criterion appears: those that are good are those that are able to ensure economic growth.

A special place in anti-inflationary policy belongs to the banking system. Being an institution of exchange, the bank became the only channel through which cash flow into economic circulation. As a participant in credit relations, the bank inevitably transforms money into capital, inflowing it from one industry, one region to other sectors of the national economy and regions of the country. In countries with an underdeveloped banking system, the functions described above cannot be performed by banks, so such countries require the development of the banking system. The banking system must be connected with the real sector of the economy so that it can have a real impact on the dynamics of production.

To do this, a number of conditions must be met:

the state must determine the priorities of investment activity (in which sectors should money be invested first), forms of investment and technology for issuing them;

the discount rate and required reserve ratios should stimulate the issuance of loans by commercial banks;

investment activities must be clearly defined by law;

information about the economic state of the economy must be accurate and accessible.

Taxes can be used to limit wage growth, which can be especially true in the case of wage inflation. To do this, it is enough to introduce a progressive scale of taxation for individuals. Then, as the income of the population grows, the share of taxes collected also increases. There is an increase in accruals, but the level real wages does not increase. However, in some cases, this can lead to the transition of a large part of workers to shorter working hours and the emergence of a large amount of illegal earnings, which can significantly reduce the efficiency of the economy.

This situation arose in Germany in the 70-80s, when the marginal tax rate was 80-90%, that is, almost the entire increase in wages was “eaten up” by taxes.

In general, the possibilities of using taxes as an anti-inflationary factor are limited. An increase in taxes can lead to a drop in production productivity due to a decrease in incentives for entrepreneurial activity. In some cases, producers compensate for increased tax rates by increasing prices. If this is possible in a given economic situation, then raising taxes becomes an inflationary factor.

Changing tax rates allows you to increase or decrease incentives for entrepreneurial activity. A reduction in the tax burden encourages entrepreneurs to increase production volumes, as production costs decrease. However, the possibilities for using this instrument are significantly limited: a significant reduction in tax rates will lead to the fact that budget revenues may decrease to such an extent that a deficit will arise in the country's budget. A significant increase in tax rates can either reduce production efficiency, since incentives for entrepreneurial activity will decrease, or cause prices to rise, since producers will be forced to cover production costs.

An increase in taxes is one of the measures that reduces the money supply in circulation, since these funds are withdrawn for the benefit of the state. Accordingly, a decrease in tax rates contributes to an increase in the money supply.

The use of non-monetary instruments is effective method fight against inflation, since in this way the government actively influences directly the state of the economy. However, the use of these instruments outside of connection with monetary ones is unlikely to be effective. For example, even with a significant improvement in the state of the economy, inflation will be observed if the emission (both cash and non-cash money) is not controlled.

2.2 State forecasts for reducing inflation

Inflation is characterized by the depreciation of the national currency and can lead to devastating consequences. It has both an open nature - a rise in prices, and a hidden one - in the form of disappearance or shortage of goods, as well as a decrease in their quality.

When considering the level of inflation in the Russian Federation, it is necessary to refer to the data indicated in table No. 1.

Table No. 1 - Inflation rate in Russia, %.

Thus, we can see that the growth rate of inflation in the Russian Federation is spasmodic and most likely this may be due to changes in the Russian and world economies. The latest increase in inflation is associated with changes in the world economy caused by the global economic crisis.

Each state has its own factors and characteristics of this process. In the last 2 years, inflation in Russia has acquired new features and depends on a number of the following factors: anti-inflationary interest rate, monetary

External conditions;

Balancing the monetary policy of the Central Bank;

Exchange rate;

The growth of monopolies.

The main problem of 2016 will remain the depreciation of money and the fall in purchasing power. After the experience of the 90s, inflation in the Russian Federation is given special importance. From its calculation, forecasts are made for economic growth, real incomes of citizens and the consumer basket.

One of the main indicators of 2014-2015. Often the indicators predicted by the government and the Ministry of Economic Development diverge from reality. This is due to changes in the geopolitical and foreign policy situation and its impact on the economy. This year the following external factors can be identified:

Fall in oil prices from $65 to $55 per barrel;

Western sanctions;

Introduction of an international credit blockade;

The stock crisis in China, which will exert significant pressure in 2016;

Return to Iran's international energy markets;

Risks of some countries leaving the euro zone.

In the first case, the price decline is explained by some market saturation. In Russia there is an opinion about a conspiracy by international partners, but it is shattered by real facts. Firstly, the countries of the OPEC cartel are not going to reduce oil production. Secondly, a significant increase in production in the USA and Canada against the backdrop of an economic recession and the debt crisis in the EU, which results in an excess of supply over demand.

In the second case, the credit blockade was introduced due to the crisis in Ukraine. Large domestic companies have lost Western loans and cannot refinance their debts. Early 2015 total amount corporate sector debt amounted to about $700 billion, and this moment this number has dropped to 500.

In this situation, large state corporations and banks (Gazprombank, Novatek, Rosselkhozbank, Rosneft, etc.) are forced to turn to the state National Welfare Fund and the reserve fund for help. However, there is not enough money for everyone.

The crisis in China does not inspire optimism. Chinese problems have long ceased to be Chinese. Collapse on stock market China could hit the country's emerging middle class hard. Every second person there has investments in securities. This will inevitably entail a fall in household incomes.

Well, the bad news is Iran's return to energy markets. After the restrictions and embargo on its oil are lifted, a gradual increase in production will begin (within 2 years), which will inevitably lead to the release of new supply into an already saturated market.

Of course, Iran produces an average of 700 million barrels per year - not comparable to Russia - but it will certainly create a downward trend.

More recently, it became known about a referendum planned for June on the UK's exit from the EU. You don't need to be a serious analyst to understand that this can trigger a chain reaction. The crisis in the eurozone will certainly put additional pressure on the ruble.

The monetary policy of the Central Bank, announced in 2014 and continued to this day, based on economic development, consists of the following scenarios:

Gradual recovery of the world economy with a slight decrease in oil prices.

Deterioration of the geopolitical situation and the continuation of sanctions, increased taxes on the economy.

Worsening external and internal factors, which are accompanied by a decline in trade.

But already now, based on previous decisions and decisions taken, it is clear that option 2 or 3 remains. Western countries have extended the sanctions regime for 6 months, and the government is beginning to increase the tax burden on small and medium business. As an example, the introduction of a trade tax in Moscow and Sevastopol.

The inflation rate previously announced by the central bank at 5% is already very far from reality; if we compare prices for all groups of goods, it already reaches more than 20%.

The pricing policy depends on the interest rate. The main financial indicators, in particular - the key rate. The main key parameter that distinguishes the types of countries by economic system. Where the key rate is low (these are mainly developed EU countries and America), this means a high standard of living and income of citizens. The Central Bank lends to commercial banks by giving them money under certain conditions, at the moment it is 11.5% from 06/16/2015.

It turns out that it is not profitable for investors to take out such loans at such a high interest rate, and access to Western markets is currently closed (there it is no more than 4%). Hence the partial outflow of capital. An important positive factor is the regulator’s refusal to intervene in foreign exchange and the transition to a floating exchange rate.

An increase in tariffs of natural monopolies is inevitable. The decision already taken by the government to index tariffs by 7.5-11% on April 30, 2015 does not give optimism. Under these conditions, the Central Bank will not be able to achieve inflation within the planned 4% for 2016-2017.

In particular, tariffs for thermal energy (7.5-9%), railway transportation (7.5-10%), and electricity (7.5-11%) will increase. The decision to increase tariffs was made without taking into account the abnormal depreciation of the ruble and the introduction of counter-sanctions on food products. Under the conditions of the embargo, there is also a conspiracy of large retail chains who inflate prices for their products, wanting to earn more. Review of tariff and price increases is a key source of inflation risks. Although, given the current level of inflation, such an increase is not fatal, it will not allow achieving the planned indicators. Against this background, the inflation forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of 4-5% looks extremely optimistic. Based on the factors described above, we can safely say that the inflation rate in 2016 will exceed all expectations and forecasts of the authorities. It all depends on how quickly Russian banks adapt to new conditions, the sanctions that no one is going to lift, and access to the Asian loan markets also remains closed for now. China's recent loans of $3 billion to Sberbank confirm this, and investments in real sector There is no economy yet.

In conclusion, we consider it appropriate to present a forecast for the growth of inflation in the Russian Federation for 2016 -2020. (Table 2).

Table 2 - Forecast of inflation rate growth in the Russian Federation 2016-2020 V %.

This forecast is based on the fact that the crisis in the global economy has ended. World economy begins to gradually recover. An additional factor that will affect the inflation rate is the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by individual countries against the Russian Federation. Most countries producing oil are beginning to realize that current prices are not profitable, which in turn leads to their slow growth. Against this background, the Russian currency is strengthening, which in turn will also help reduce inflation.

3 . Ant Featuresand inflation policy in Russia

3.1 Features of the formation of anti-inflationary policy in Russia

With the beginning of the formation of market relations, inflation became an integral feature of the Russian monetary system. It is characterized by the close intertwining of cost and demand inflation and is accompanied by severe socio-economic consequences.

The consequences of inflation are complex and varied. Its small pace contributes to an increase in prices and profit margins, thus being a factor in the temporary revival of the market situation. As inflation deepens, it turns into a serious obstacle to reproduction and aggravates economic and social tension in society.

Inflation intensifies the flight from money to goods, turning this process into an avalanche, aggravates the hunger for goods, undermines incentives for monetary accumulation, and disrupts the functioning of monetary system, revives barter.

One of the most difficult issues in economic policy is managing inflation. The range of parameters for carrying out such a policy can be very narrow; on the one hand, it is necessary to restrain the inflationary spiral, and on the other hand, it is necessary to support production incentives and create conditions for saturating the market with goods. Inflation management involves the use of a set of measures that help, to a certain extent, reduce price increases.

As many economists note, Russian inflation has the following specific features:

1. Increase in tariffs for housing and communal services (HCS).

During the period from 2000 to 2009, the cost of housing and communal services increased 9.2 times. The average annual inflation rate for 9 years was 12.4%, and the average growth rate of housing and communal services tariffs was 28.7%.

In 2010, prices for public utilities increased by 13%, in 2011 - by 11.7%, and in 2012 - by 12-14% (depending on the region). However, the projected increase in tariff prices in 2012 was expected to range from 6 to 6.5%, on par with the inflation rate.

In 2013, price increases averaged 15%.

The rapid rise in prices for housing and communal services tariffs is due to a number of reasons.

Firstly, with the rise in prices for utility resources, which is dictated by natural monopolists in the relevant areas.

And secondly, with the costly nature of price increases, since the increase in prices does not occur due to the presence of competitors, but precisely due to an increase in the cost of providing these types of services.

It should also be noted that the rise in prices for housing and communal services tariffs outstrips not only the rise in the general price level, but also the rate of growth in the level of income of the population.

2. Rising prices for essential products and food products. Consumer price indices for food products for the period from 2009 to 2013. are presented in Table 2.

According to Table 2, we can say that over the past 5 years there has been no consistent upward trend in the CPI. Dynamics this indicator very spasmodic. And if we see a sharp increase of 6.8% in 2010, then this increase is immediately compensated by a decrease in this indicator in 2011 by 9%. And then the dynamics fluctuate between 7-7.5%. Comparing 2013 and 2009 we can say that the CPI grew by 1.1%.

An increase in the general level of prices for food products is associated with an increase in the cost of their production process, because the same increase in tariffs for water and electricity used in the production process can affect the final price of the product. That is, in this case, there is a costly nature of price increases.

3. Imbalance between prices and wages.

On modern stage development, existing imbalances are explained by the lack of an intersectoral balance policy, which made it possible to correlate wages with the price level for various goods and services.

4. Inflation growth due to imports of goods.

Openness modern economies, including the economy of our country, leads not only to the expansion of the market and production relations, but also to the risk of imported inflation. In our country, this risk is very high, since a very wide range of goods is imported into Russia. These are mainly goods that are not produced in our country or are of lower quality compared to foreign competitors. For example, before Russia joined the WTO, the customs duty on the import of foreign cars was 30% in order to support the domestic automobile industry, and today it is 25%. But, unfortunately, the reduction of import duties does not lower the price, but increases the income of sellers who do not seek to reduce trade margins.

5. Increase in prices by small and medium-sized businesses, which are having a hard time in the economic conditions of our country. This is due to economic instability, high taxes, rising prices for production costs, high interest rates on loans, etc. It is not profitable for entrepreneurs to reduce prices for products whose cost is not cheap.

6. The presence of a mechanism of inflation expectations, which exceeds the predicted and real levels of inflation and forces the population to “overstock”, creating excess demand, leading to rising prices.

3.2 Prospects for anti-inflationary policy

At the moment, special attention in anti-inflationary policy should be paid to improving the tax system:

Reducing the number of taxes levied;

Refusal to use inflation as a source of budget financing. For this purpose, it is necessary to regularly revaluate fixed assets, index all income limiters of enterprises, and adjust profit and loss statements;

I'll reconsider tax payments included in production costs, which stimulate price increases - contributions to Pension Fund, social insurance fund, employment fund, land payment, property tax, etc.;

Changes in taxation methods;

Elimination of state debt to sectors and areas of the national economy;

Regulation of redistribution relations between the budgets of the Federation and the budgets of the regions.

An important direction in anti-inflationary policy is further development And government regulation foreign exchange and financial markets, as well as improving the mechanism for forming the exchange rate.

Basis externally economic activity continue to be the development of exports and strengthening of its base, which requires ensuring effective export and exchange control in order to stop the “flight” of capital abroad and ensure timely and complete payment of taxes on these transactions. The country's economy needs a return program Russian capital, as well as in attracting foreign capital for investment. This could also be helped by restoring confidence in banks and government. It is necessary to neutralize external factors of inflation through the use of tax duties and the development of import-substituting industries, as well as limiting the dollarization of the economy.

The restructuring of exports and imports can be of great importance in curbing inflation. We are talking about a transition from a raw material orientation of exports to technological types of products, as well as a rejection of bargain prices at which domestic raw materials are sold and tens of billions of dollars in export revenue are lost per year.

One of the determining roles in the implementation of anti-inflationary policy is played by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. It should focus not only on reducing inflation, but also on a more balanced and stable development of the economy, as well as softening restrictions on the money supply in circulation and seeking to improve its structure, since higher growth rates of less liquid components of the money supply lead to a weakening of inflationary pressures, a reduction The same amount of cash allows you to reduce the rate of inflation. An improvement in the structure of the money supply also implies a more active influence of the Bank of Russia on the turnover serviced by quasi-money and money surrogates.

Direct management of credit emission is necessary, aimed at restoring economic ties and the banking system and increasing production. To curb inflation, support for the investment activity of commercial banks is needed (at least within the framework of benefits for the creation of required reserves of the Bank of Russia).

Successful implementation of anti-inflationary policy is possible only on the basis of the development of regulations that regulate all areas of market relations and the unconditional implementation of existing legislation.

Currently, the problem of inflation in Russia is becoming especially relevant due to a change in the model of economic development towards strengthening the factors of innovative development and increasing investment activity. Emphasis is placed on the development of the social sphere, technological modernization, innovation structure, increasing competitiveness, improving the investment climate, increasing energy security and energy modernization, and updating regional policy.

In the current conditions, the decisive factor in the fight against inflation will be the possibility of restoring state structures of management and control over prices and incomes, distribution and redistribution of material and financial resources while maintaining the course towards the primary use of free market prices. The state cannot do without regulating prices for energy resources, products produced by monopoly structures, and transport services. Government intervention is needed to eliminate price scissors for industrial and agricultural products.

One of the conditions for the implementation of these most important tasks is the stabilization of the ruble. For the first time, the Government of the Russian Federation approved a set of anti-inflationary measures, which compare favorably with the previously used disparate methods of influencing the inflation process. Firstly, it provides for limiting the growth of regulated prices for products (services) of natural monopolies and tariffs for housing and communal services while strengthening control over the costs of monopolists. Secondly, measures have been outlined to reduce the rate of growth in prices for fuel and lubricants. Thirdly, the Government predicts a slowdown in food price growth.

To reduce inflation, measures are being taken to stabilize food markets: reducing import duties and increasing export duties on a number of inflation-risk products, measures to stimulate competition. Taking into account the decline in prices for grain and other goods on world markets this year, in the second half of the year the growth of domestic food prices is projected to decline to 2% versus 8.9% a year ago.

At the same time, in 2015, the monetary component of inflation increased due to the high growth in money supply last year and high inflation expectations.

In the medium term, a comprehensive program that includes two groups of measures is aimed at reducing inflation.

Firstly, measures to stimulate the supply of goods and develop competition (especially in food and agricultural markets), develop trade infrastructure, and measures to curb rising costs, including by creating new market instruments to limit the growth of tariffs of natural monopolies in the context of expanding deregulation and combating oligopoly markets and developing a competitive environment (in the markets of petroleum products and other material resources). To curb monetary inflation in the medium term, it is necessary to limit both the growth of the money supply and ensure an increase in the population’s propensity to save. To curb non-monetary inflation - ensure an increase in the supply of goods, develop competition, and also contain the growth of costs.

Secondly, fiscal and monetary policy measures aimed at reducing the monetary component of inflation by limiting the growth of the money supply, stimulating household savings and regulating demand.

It is assumed that as a result of the measures taken and the reduction in the growth rate of consumer demand and money supply, the monetary component of inflation will decrease. A more dramatic suppression of inflation by monetary policy methods is limited by the threat of a decline in the growth rate of consumption and investment, and thereby economic growth as a whole.

In addition to the main short-term and long-term measures that the government will take to combat inflation, analysts offer additional tools to regulate the level of inflation:

1. Issue loans only after returning old ones. However, this is only feasible if, if it is impossible to repay the loan, the bankruptcy procedure inevitably and effectively begins to operate.

2. Restore confidence in government bonds. Research shows that credit substitution Central Bank to cover the budget deficit with government short-term bonds - a significant factor in reducing inflation.

3. Increased efficiency banking sector by reducing costs, early resolution and bankruptcy of ineffective banks and consolidating bank capital through mergers and attracting new shareholders. Reduced emissions and inflation will reduce the profitability of the banking sector, which will create significant liquidity problems for banks that are not performing well.

4. It is very important for the central bank to maintain the intended trajectory of the exchange rate and inflation. Pricing of enterprises is focused on intuitive exchange rate, which, in their opinion, will be at the time of the transaction. Thus, enterprises themselves form a certain “panic” course and focus on it in pricing.

Conclusion

Having revealed the essence of inflation, its causes and consequences, two types of inflation were demonstrated: open and hidden inflation. We figured out that open inflation can occur in various forms: demand inflation, cost inflation, structural inflation created by the market itself. The reasons for it are found in...

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Inflation manifests itself in a continuous general increase in prices, and the real value of personal savings held in cash or in accounts falls. Rising prices inexorably reduce the volume of goods that owners of such savings are able to purchase.

With inflation, first of all, the real income of recipients of fixed nominal income decreases, i.e. employees of budgetary organizations, pensioners. It also reduces household savings. Inflation redistributes income between creditors and debtors, among whom the debtor benefits.

Inflation affects the standard of living of every person, all segments of the population and all areas of the market. There is private inflation (for a certain type of product) and general inflation, which is dangerous for the economy.

The main indicator of inflation, when a person's income grows more slowly than the prices of goods.

During a period of inflation, the current real incomes of consumers decrease. The standard of living is falling, since indexation and other methods of protecting the population from inflation cannot keep up with price dynamics.

The effect of inflation taxation is destructive. It manifests itself in the economy with progressive system income taxation, which causes social stratification and deepening property inequality among the population. During inflation, there is a redistribution of income that is unfair.

Inflation can be combated through monetary reform or anti-inflationary policies.

Methods of carrying out monetary reform include the following:

• Nullification - announcement of the cancellation of a depreciating monetary unit and the introduction of a new one;
• devaluation - a decrease in the gold content of monetary units or a depreciation of the national currency against gold, silver and foreign currency;
• denomination (method of crossing out zeros) - enlargement of a monetary unit and exchange of old banknotes for new ones according to an established ratio. Prices, tariffs, wages, account balances, and enterprise balance sheets are recalculated in the same ratio.

Anti-inflationary policy is a set of measures for government regulation of the economy aimed at suppressing inflation.

Anti-inflationary policy can be implemented in two ways:

Deflationary policy - This is the regulation of money demand through the monetary and tax mechanisms. It is carried out by reducing government spending, increasing interest rates on loans, increasing the tax burden, and limiting the money supply. This type anti-inflationary policies lead to a slowdown in economic growth.

Income Policy carried out as a result of parallel control over prices and wages by completely freezing them or setting a limit to their growth. Its implementation may cause social contradictions.

The main instruments for regulating Russian inflation were monetary policy, with the help of which the Government of the Russian Federation in the 90s. tried to influence the money supply. However, as a result of such measures the following consequences occurred:

Non-payments have appeared in the country on a large scale (non-payment of wages, debts to suppliers and clients, debts to the budget, etc.). An increase in the money supply under these conditions could lead to hyperinflation.

Repaying government expenditures during a budget deficit requires the Government of the Russian Federation to resort to borrowing on the domestic market and increasing the tax burden on enterprises that do not have enough working capital for economic needs. Another way is external borrowing, and, accordingly, external debt and interest on it.

Anti-inflationary policy is a set of measures for state regulation of the economy aimed at suppressing inflation.

1. Deflationary monetary policy (demand management) carried out by limiting money demand by the following methods: increasing taxation in order to increase budget income and reducing the purchasing power of the population; a reduction in government spending, an increase in the bank discount rate, a reduction in demand for credit and an increase in savings; increasing the required reserve ratio; sale by the Central Bank of government securities that generate fixed income.

2. Income Policy means establishing parallel control over the rise in prices and wages by completely freezing them or setting limits on their growth.

3. Indexing Policy means indexation of losses of economic entities due to the depreciation of money. The Government of the Russian Federation periodically indexes pensions, scholarships, benefits, and wages, however, due to the lack of funds, this is carried out without the necessary linkage with rising prices, both in time and in the amount of reimbursable losses. Therefore, indexation does not always have a significant impact on the standard of living.

4. Policy to stimulate the expansion of production and growth of savings of the population.

Classic methods of fighting inflation

To successfully overcome it, it is necessary to eliminate its causes.

Keynesian approach

The Keynesian approach is based on the premise of a shortage of goods in the market due to decreased supply with incomplete capacity utilization. The solution to the problem is to stimulate investment demand, as a result of which, taking into account , will increase. An increase in national production will ultimately lead to lower prices, i.e. to reduce inflation.

Keynesian stabilization programs were widely used in the 1930s. and after the Second World War. However, by the 70s. active government policy led to rapid growth and, which necessitated a revision of the methods used.

Monetarism

The new economic movement (monetarism), which replaced Keynesianism, used the basic ideas of the neoclassics. Monetarists believed that government intervention in the economy should be kept to a minimum and limited mainly to monetary sphere. Inflation was also proclaimed to be a purely monetary phenomenon associated with an increase in the economy. The method of fighting inflation, according to monetarists, is to limiting the money supply: The government must increase and decrease the amount of money in the hands of the population. In this case, inflation will decrease and decrease. At the same time as limiting demand, we must strive to increase it. This can be done through the sale of part of state property (partial privatization), strengthening, and supporting small and medium-sized businesses. A feature of monetary programs is the commitment to the concept of an open economy - the country must be integrated into and open to the influx of foreign capital.

Conclusion

The considered methods of combating inflation are contradictory in nature. Therefore, the choice of anti-inflationary policy depends on the specific economic situation in the country. It should be remembered that monetarist programs, compared to Keynesian ones, are more stringent and have a much stronger impact on socially vulnerable segments of the population, so their implementation period should be much shorter.

Inflation and anti-inflationary policy in Russia

Inflationary phenomena developed in the domestic economy even during the period of the administrative-command system - in the 80s of the 20th century. The peculiarity of these processes was the predominance of non-monetary inflation factors, including:

• disproportionality of the structure of the economy - sustainable growth rates of heavy industry producing means of production with stagnation in industries producing consumer goods and service industries. So, in 1989, for 1 rub. the money supply in circulation accounted for 18 kopecks. consumer goods in retail trade;
• stock distribution of means of production between commodity-producing enterprises through a system of state supply bodies that artificially created their deficit;
• planned centralized pricing system based on lowering prices for natural resources (the policy of “cheap resources”), which led to a high degree of material intensity of products produced by enterprises;
• low level of domestic prices for resources, which predetermined the resource orientation of exports, since income from the export of cheap resources significantly exceeded income from the export of finished products;
• excessive industrial capital investments in the defense industry - up to 50% of GDP;
• the formation of monopolies of large-scale production: a high degree of controllability of large production complexes, as well as requirements for the rational use of limited resources. The result was a high level of monopolism in the form of subject specialization of enterprises - about 94% of products were produced at enterprises owning more than 50% of the market;
• strengthening of inflationary processes after economic reform 1987, due to the excess growth rate of wages compared to the growth rate of labor productivity.

Inflation in the first half of the 90s was formed, on the one hand, as a result of “inflationary tension” that developed during the period of the administrative-command system of the economy, and on the other hand, under the influence of factors of market transformation of the economy.

The primary (direct) factors were:

• liberalization of prices and economic relations;
• inclusion of the Russian economy in the world economy;
• transition to a market mechanism for the formation of the ruble exchange rate and its internal convertibility;
• introduction of new indirect taxes;
• rapid growth in prices for fuel and energy resources and transportation tariffs;
• export orientation of industries, leading to a high degree of interaction between domestic and world prices;
• a significant number of intermediaries selling products to the end consumer;
• the low nature of prices during the period of command-administrative economy;
• high impact of imported inflation.

The complexity and multifactor nature of inflation in Russia led to the formation of a reproduction approach to the theoretical substantiation of its causes and a set of mechanisms for managing inflation processes.

The reproduction approach to the concept of inflation as a multifactorial socio-economic process includes the following interrelated elements:

• main reasons - imbalances in the reproduction process (including production, distribution, exchange, consumption), as well as erroneous economic policies;
• consequence - excess money in circulation compared to the real needs of economic turnover in money;
• essence(the main form of inflation) is a stable general rise in prices and depreciation of money in relation to goods and foreign currencies;
• socio-economic consequences - redistribution of national income and national wealth in favor of monopolistic enterprises, the state, and the shadow economy by reducing real wages, pensions and other fixed incomes of the population; strengthening the property differentiation of society; undermining the driving forces of economic development.

The reproduction approach to assessing inflation as a multifactor process is aimed at developing comprehensive program reducing its pace, including regulation of both monetary and non-monetary factors.

Regulation of monetary factors of inflation V modern Russia associated with a number of problems:

1. the predominance of the foreign exchange component in the formation of the money supply of the Bank of Russia due to the one-sided development of the Russian economy and the increase in world prices for export products of the fuel and energy complex. The main disadvantage of issuing money in Russia is the weak connection with the formation of the money supply through lending to the economy; therefore, it is important to increase the credit component of the money supply, taking into account the conditions of the reproduction process and the requirements of internal economic turnover. In Russia, the connection remains, albeit one-sidedly, with the monetary demand of the export-oriented fuel and raw materials industry that dominates the economy, which stimulates the development of related industries and is one of the largest investors. Thus, money issued by the Bank of Russia by purchasing the foreign exchange earnings of exporters is exchanged for part of the country’s national income;

2. the weak impact of classical instruments of monetary regulation (refinancing rates, required reserve ratios, open market operations) on the formation and redistribution of financial resources in the economy;

3. the focus of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on regulating the issue of only central money. The issue of private money issued by financial institutions is essentially uncontrolled. In this regard, it is important to improve the structure of the money supply by reducing the use of money surrogates and foreign currencies in economic circulation. The study of the relationship between official, private money and foreign currencies used in economic turnover in Russia is important for regulating the monetization coefficient of the economy (the ratio of the average annual money supply to nominal GDP). This coefficient in Russia is gradually increasing, but is still 2-3 times lower than in a number of other countries (in the USA - 53%, Japan - 125%, China - 204%). Increasing the monetization of the economy through the issuance of private money can directly provoke inflation. Proposals to increase the monetization of the economy through the use of state gold and foreign exchange reserves and stabilization fund do not take into account the inflationary consequences of such measures. To avoid these consequences, a program for using the stabilization fund to implement quick-payback investment projects is necessary.

Comprehensive anti-inflation measures medium term provide for conservative monetary policies that regulate money supply in accordance with the real money demand of economic turnover, depending on the size of GDP. Emphasis is placed on slowing down the velocity of money circulation to 2.8-3 revolutions in 2009. The need to regulate the money supply in a qualitative aspect is substantiated - reducing the foreign exchange component of the issue and expanding the money supply through refinancing the banking system. It is planned to expand the use of such refinancing instruments as rediscounting bills, swap operations, and open market operations.

Regulation of non-monetary factors of inflation - This is primarily a rise in prices that occurs regardless of monetary factors. Non-monetary factors of price growth in Russia include:

• changes in the exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar and euro;
• growth of production costs and tariffs for services of natural monopolies;
• increasing budget wages and pensions;
• flight from depreciating money to goods;
• rising world fuel prices;
• markups from numerous resellers;
• “deferred inflation” and inflation expectations;
• lack of market competition in Russia, which influences price reductions.

In this regard, Russia needs to develop a pricing policy based on principles that ensure a reduction in the non-monetary price component of inflation. These principles should include:

• demonopolization of the economy;
• control for established limits growth of tariffs for services of natural monopolies;
• stimulating market competition;
• reducing the number of resellers;
• legal regulation of trade margins taking into account social factor and different price elasticities of demand for goods and services;
• effective regulation of customs duties on exported and imported goods.

In the set of anti-inflationary measures approved by the Government of the Russian Federation, the leading role is occupied by the mechanisms of influence on pricing. These include:

• limiting the growth of regulated prices for the products of natural monopolies and tariffs for housing and communal services while strengthening control over the costs of monopolists;
• reducing the rate of growth in prices for fuels and lubricants by stimulating competition, developing exchange trading, reducing tax burden and technological renewal of the oil industry;
• a slowdown in the growth of prices for food products against the backdrop of stimulating the supply of these goods and improving the regulation of their imports.

An important component of managing non-monetary factors of inflation is the regulation of wages and incomes that exceed the growth of labor productivity. The trend of increasing wages in Russia has become global due to such phenomena as increased wages for civil servants and members of the parliamentary corps, shadow wages, and increased wages for public sector workers. To avoid inflationary consequences, it is important to coordinate wage increases taking into account the dynamics of labor productivity and regulate excessive growth of cash income using tax methods.

A significant role in reducing the rate of inflation in Russia is played by the improvement of the federal budget based on improving macroeconomic indicators, increasing tax revenues, turning the budget into a development budget, reforming budget process, introduction of results-oriented budgeting in the public sector of the economy.

To ensure economic growth without increasing inflation, it is necessary to modernize the banking system and reduce the inflationary component in its activities. Decisive steps in this direction should be:

• increasing the capitalization of banks, attracting medium-term and long-term resources into their circulation;
• improving the bank refinancing system to maintain their liquidity and current activities;
• reduction in the cost of credit services;
• ensuring the sustainability of banking activities through the development of macro-tools for risk reduction;
• increasing the competitiveness of the Russian banking system;
• improvement of banking control and supervision.

Our country's accession to the WTO may add additional urgency to the problems of high inflation in Russia, since this will lead to a convergence of domestic and world prices for energy resources and may lead to a decrease in the efficiency of raw material exports. Given the openness of the Russian economy and the abolition of currency restrictions (from July 1, 2006), the influence of external factors on economic growth and inflation is increasing. The state of the federal budget depends significantly on revenues from taxes and duties from energy exports.

The risk of imported inflation increases. To limit its effect, it is advisable to pay more attention to import substitution, since about half of the consumer market is made up of foreign goods, including expensive ones. It is necessary to increase the competitiveness of domestic goods in terms of prices and, most importantly, quality. This results in the need for investment and bank loans to revive Russian production of consumer goods based on innovation, taking into account consumer demand. The projected increase in the production of food and other consumer goods will increase the commodity supply of the ruble.

When neutralizing external factors, the role of monetary policy is important. In the “Main Directions of the Unified State Monetary Policy” it is usually limited to exchange rate policy. The Bank of Russia traditionally strives to counteract both excessive depreciation and appreciation of the ruble, taking into account the ratio of the positive and negative impact of exchange rate policy on economic growth and inflation. Monetary policy should also include such guidelines as regulation of the structure of the balance of payments, the foreign exchange market, the optimal level of gold and foreign exchange reserves, and ensuring the transition from formal to real free convertibility of the ruble. The priority task is to gradually expand the use of the ruble in international economic, including monetary and credit relations.

Currently, the problem of inflation in Russia is being updated in connection with the introduction of an economic development model aimed at activating innovative factors of economic growth. In this regard, the macroeconomic conditions for containing inflation are:

• proportional, balanced economic growth;
• revival of national production, structural restructuring of the economy and its innovative modernization;
• increasing investment in production technologies, human capital, infrastructure development;
• concentration of investments on priority and quick-payback projects in non-resource sectors;
• active opposition to the shadow economy;
• effective Government program curbing the “flight” of capital abroad;
• increasing the efficiency of Russia's integration into the world economy, taking into account the priorities of forming a national innovation system.

The tools and methods of anti-inflation policy Belyaeva E. (Russian Federation)

Tools and methods of anti-inflationary policy Belyaeva E. T. (Russian Federation)

Belyaeva Elizaveta - student, Faculty of Business and Management,

National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow

Abstract: the article explores the main ways to contain and control inflation. The main analysis is carried out on the basis of statistics on economic indicators Russia in 2008-2014

Abstract: the paper examines main methods of controlling the inflation. Primary analysis is based on statistics of economic indexes in Russia from 2008 to 2014 years.

Key words: anti-inflationary policy, targeting, rate, Russian economy, inflation indicators.

Keywords: anti-inflation policy, targeting, interest rate, Russian economy, inflation indexes.

Introduction.

The phenomenon of inflation covers many countries of the world, has a significant impact on the social situation and does not raise doubts about its relevance. Due to the frequent unpredictability and complexity of inflation processes, it is difficult for states to choose certain models and tools to slow them down and improve the state of the economy as a whole. In addition, events in political and social life have no less impact on inflation than monetary factors, so now, in conditions of aggravation international relations, choosing the right ways to protect the national economy is critical.

In recent years, there has been a trend of constant rising prices in the world. If in the past the increasing trend was temporary, now it has turned into a “chronic form”. This indicator is only one of the signs of inflation, but is already sufficient to consider the direction of anti-inflationary policy as an important macroeconomic problem of our time. Other consequences of the depreciation of money also include a decrease in real wages, various government transfer payments, and the development of unofficial economic activity. All this leads to a deterioration in the quality of life, which countries are trying to different ways prevent.

The task of my work is to consider the phenomenon of inflation, understand the reasons for its occurrence, analyze Russia’s anti-inflationary policy in the last few years and, most importantly, decide which way to combat such a weakening of the economy is the most reliable and guarantees the longest possible growth.

For my work, I used textbooks and reference books on macroeconomics, materials from lectures I attended, articles from periodicals, Rosstat data and the works of specialists on inflation and anti-inflationary measures.

1. Basic concepts.

1.1. Inflation, its types and consequences.

G. N. Mankiw, in his work on the principles of macroeconomics, to illustrate the phenomenon of rising prices, gives a simple example of the increase in the cost of ice cream, which over the past 60 years has risen in price so much that the former price seems strange. Thus, inflation can be defined as the depreciation of money in circulation, which is manifested in a fall in its purchasing power

ability and rising prices. Otherwise, its appearance is caused by the fact that there is more printed money than necessary. However, an excess supply of money does not guarantee the development of inflation. Therefore, if we consider this concept more deeply, in the long term this phenomenon is the result of structural changes in the circulation of money, which lead to a self-reproducing, constant rise in prices. Inflation in terms of severity is divided into moderate (3-5% per year), galloping (10-50% per year), high (200-300+% per year) and the most dangerous form - hyperinflation (1000% or more per year). period). Moreover, if moderate inflationary growth is considered normal and stimulates an increase in output, then other levels have a serious negative impact on the economy. There are also overt and covert forms; the latter is typical for countries with a planned economic system and is associated with the state setting prices below equilibrium market prices. A striking example of suppressed inflation is the situation in the USSR, when the population was faced with a shortage of goods. Another classification criterion is the area of ​​manifestation. Demand or supply inflation is associated with the excess of one over the other and the corresponding consequences.

Inflation negatively affects all aspects of society. It depreciates the results of labor, savings of households and firms, reducing purchasing power money, hinders long-term investments and slows, if not threatens, economic growth. High inflation is dangerous due to the destruction of the monetary system, capital outflows, and the complication of financing the state budget. Inflation makes the income of the population employed in the budgetary or other spheres less profitable and is a powerful means of redistributing national wealth from the poor to the rich, thereby increasing the stratification of society. This phenomenon undermines the social and political stability of society, reduces the standard of living of the population and turns people against the government, which allowed price shocks to develop.

Thus, inflation is a complex, comprehensive problem that has recently become chronic.

1.2. Causes of inflation.

The global causes of inflation are the discrepancy between the supply of money and goods and an increase in production costs. The reasons leading to rising prices can be divided into two large groups: those causing inflation of demand and costs.

With the first, the amount of money in circulation increases, demand increases, resulting in higher prices. A factor could be, for example, “dumping,” in which consumers buy more than they need in anticipation of higher prices. However, it turns out that they themselves “break” the avalanche of depreciation of the national currency. Excessive lending also causes demand-side inflation because it leads to an increase in the money supply. The reason is sometimes to cover the state budget deficit through emissions.

Cost-push inflation is associated with an increase in the prices of final products caused by an increase in the cost of production. Accordingly, fueling factors include increasing wages for employees. Often production becomes more expensive due to rising prices not only for raw materials, but also for additional expenses like paying for electricity and insurance. With a decrease in labor productivity, time costs per unit of production increase, and, consequently, the cost of production. In such a situation, entrepreneurs are forced to reduce real profits and reduce output. As a result, supply decreases and prices rise.

We can draw the following conclusion: imbalances in the commodity and money markets, as well as rising production costs, are the main causes of inflation.

1.3. Basic anti-inflationary instruments.

Anti-inflationary tools include various approaches to manage inflation, reduce costs and overcome a prolonged economic downturn. Such models and methods differ from each other in their effectiveness in a given situation and are actively used by many countries around the world. Anti-inflationary policy is a set of measures taken by the government to reduce inflationary growth.

The main methods of anti-inflationary management can be divided into deflationary and income policies. The concept of deflation includes various monetary, tax and budgetary funds. The essence of the latter is an attempt to limit the money supply by aggravating the tax burden, as well as to overcome the budget deficit by reducing the cost of transfer payments. Monetary instruments include interest rate maneuvers, regulation of bank reserve requirements and transactions with securities at the state level.

An increase in the interest rate is aimed at reducing lending volumes, because it is not profitable for the population to borrow funds from a bank with high percentage. A more logical option is to store conventional units in a bank. All this leads to a reduction in money in circulation.

Required reserves are the amount, expressed as a percentage of deposits, that commercial banks must maintain in their own account with the Central Bank. The establishment of a relatively high reserve ratio limits lending activity. Thus, this instrument is also aimed at reducing the money supply.

Operations with various government papers may also have a dampening effect on inflation. Open market trading allows you to control the short-term interest rate and the size of the monetary base by decreasing or increasing it in the central bank's reserve account. The specificity of such operations in Russia is due to the small volume and liquidity of government bonds, which makes these procedures not the most popular anti-inflationary policy instruments for the Russian state.

Such monetarist techniques are combined into a set of expensive money policies aimed at short-term results in the form of a reduction in monetary circulation, and, consequently, an increase in inflation. Such methods must be correctly combined with elements of fiscal policy - maneuvering tax rate and the amount of government procurement.

Another important tool of anti-inflationary policy is targeting, that is, determining target indicators for increasing the money supply. Various targeting options dictate strict conditions for the growth of monetary aggregates over a certain period of time or establish the maximum and minimum acceptable value of money.

This method of managing inflation, strictly speaking, is not exactly a method that actually suppresses negative processes, but it helps in choosing further measures to slow down and control price growth. Approximate money supply targets are essentially an interval or specific estimate, deviation from which indicates the need for change.

Income policy is understood as a set of measures designed, in conditions of inflation, to maintain consistency between real wages and increased product prices. Simply put, this policy is aimed at bridging the “hole” that arises between the labor market and the money market. Due to indexation of the value of nominal wages, other changes in the economy -

interest rates and increased prices do not have such a strong impact on the purchasing power of the employee’s funds. Methods of such regulation include legally established wages or contractual agreements within professional associations. The government can also maintain relative social well-being by keeping prices low for certain types of products, such as those considered essential goods. Using these types of methods, it is possible to help the population feel some stability and security, independence from inflationary growth.

Among the popular methods of slowing inflation are indexation and the so-called “currency corridor”. It is a method of forced limitation of the dollar exchange rate in order to overcome inflation. However, an undervalued exchange rate subsequently leads to an increase in imports and a reduction in domestic production and exports. Additional currency for imports can be obtained from reserves or loans. If the “currency corridor” period persists for a long time, the economy operates in a specific mode with a high additional need for foreign currency. If guaranteed long term sources currencies are available, then such a regime is feasible (although not necessarily advisable). If there are no such sources, then the chosen policy inevitably leads to destructive consequences.

To summarize, it can be noted that there are many different tools for regulating inflation growth, as well as ways to check the need for changes in the economy. Properly balanced fiscal, monetary and income policy measures lead to a reduction or at least slowdown in overall price growth and smooth out the consequences of inflation.

2. Analysis of Russia's anti-inflationary policy in 2008-2014.

2.1. Statistical data on inflation in the period under review.

By analyzing Rosstat data on the consumer price index for goods and services, you can calculate the level of annual inflation. The table contains information about changes both by month of each year from 1991 to 2014, as well as the December ratio of one year to the previous one. It is this indicator that is of particular interest to us, because it characterizes the general level of annual price increases.

When analyzing the data, attention is drawn to the inflation rate in 2008, known for the large-scale crisis. Then the increase in the consumer price index was the maximum for the period I considered in this work and corresponded to 13.28%. Further, with the use of certain means to combat the depreciation of money, the inflation rate slowed down in 2009 and 2010 to 8.80 and 8.78%. These figures do not reflect the overcoming of inflation and the transition to economic growth, but they bring the indicators closer to relative stability. In subsequent years, prices leveled off, and the inflation rate varied from 6 to 6.5% until 2014. It is worth noting that 2011-2013 are record-breaking years for the entire period of observation (from 1991 to 2014), because they demonstrate not only the most constant economic situation, but also the lowest inflation rates. These values ​​are also not “the limits of dreams”, but for the Russian economy they reflect a trend towards a slowdown in the growth of the general price level. 2014 became a period of a kind of repetition of the 2008 crisis, because it brought a smaller, but still serious inflationary growth of 11.36% to the economy.

The consumer price index is a good indicator of inflationary changes, but for a more complete picture it is also worth turning to information on gross domestic product, the unemployment rate, and the amount of disposable personal income of the population.

If you analyze the table data on GDP in constant prices of 2008, you can notice a significant decrease in 2009 compared to the previous year by about 8%. In 2010, the figure was below 40,000 billion rubles. remained, but subsequently acquired an upward trend. However, these data are expressed in comparable 2008 prices, and although they confirm the serious consequences of the 2008-2009 crisis, they do not show the full picture of the situation in later years.

A sharp negative jump in indicators in 2009 is also noted in the data containing information on the unemployment rate. If in 2008 it was 6.2%, then a year later it increased to 8.3%. The next two years became a kind of stabilization period, when, against the backdrop of slowing inflation growth, there was a decrease in the level of the unemployed economically active population. 2012 and 2013 show the same unemployment rate of 5.5%.

Available data cash income of the population of Russia during the period under review speaks of an increase in the material condition of citizens in the period from 2008 to 2010, because the indicators indicate, albeit not a strong, but still an increase in income from 102.4% compared to the previous year to 105.9%. In 2011, apparently as a result of either an increase in the tax burden or a decrease in wages, the disposable income of the population decreased to 100.5% by 2010. And in the next two years, the figure was fixed at about 100.4%. For the crisis year 2014, the figure indicated by Rosstat is 99.9%, but is marked as an element of preliminary data and has not yet been updated on the website.

Trying to draw a comprehensive conclusion about spastic data and economic processes, the effects that they reflect, we can easily identify two well-known crisis periods: 2008-2009 and 2014, each of which brought, in addition to the effects of unemployment and a decrease in household incomes, significant inflationary growth.

Thus, official Russian statistics demonstrate the main periods of decline and rise in economic activity, caused by external reasons or some regulatory methods, which I will try to understand in the next subsection.

2.2. Anti-inflationary policy and its results.

Before the 2008 crisis, Russia's anti-inflationary policy was based on the withdrawal of funds in rubles from circulation to reduce liquidity, and then on an artificial decrease in the dollar exchange rate on the domestic market. This policy was called “sterilization.” Although this measure was justified (demonstrating growth in the money supply at a relatively high level in just one year, 2007 - 47%), it did not bring any tangible results. As can be seen from the statistics described above, the inflation rate increased in 2008.

In general, the crisis period of 2008-2009, caused by incorrect US economic policy, which gave rise to an avalanche of inflationary growth, became very important in the framework of understanding the interaction of economic agents. In conditions when the anti-crisis effect expected from monetary policy in all countries of the world, including Russia, turned out to be more than modest, the question of the need not only for tough monetarist methods, but also for the existence of potential fiscal policy. This problem acquired high scientific and practical significance in Russia due to the serious deterioration in the state of the national economy in 2008-2009. and the obviousness of institutional (structural) restrictions on the country’s way out of the crisis. This was manifested in the limited presence of conservative and long-term investors in the Russian stock market, in the growing dependence of the state budget and the national currency exchange rate on the situation in the world raw materials, commodity and financial markets.

Anti-inflationary policy after 2009 is based on reducing the refinancing rate, issuing bank loans to entrepreneurial firms for preferential terms and regulating the prices of food and other essential goods. Today, these methods have also been supplemented by inflation targeting (that is, controlling and managing the size of the money supply) and reducing government spending, for example, on purchases or transfer payments.

Inflation in 2010, generated by the rise in world prices for certain types of products and, as a consequence, the inconsistency of internal and external prices on the market. In addition, this period was characterized by low entrepreneurial activity - weak competition and an increase in prices for housing and communal services. The main methods of anti-inflationary policy stem from the following reasons: since the state feared an unfavorable economic situation for consumers, it began to regulate prices for medicines, housing and communal services and important food products. To intensify competition and expand production, measures such as preferential bank lending to the business sector and a reduction in the refinancing rate were introduced. Grain interventions were used to stabilize prices in agriculture, as the most important sector of the Russian economy. The fight against inflation was based on targeting, without which it has been difficult to imagine Russia’s anti-inflationary policy since 2009. It should be noted that the policy was very effective, because already the next year the inflation rate dropped significantly to almost normal levels.

In 2011, known for the global rise in food prices, prices in our country also grew, not only for daily consumption goods, but also for utility services. Among the instruments of monetary policy, one can note a slight increase in the discount rate, an increase in the norm of required bank reserves and open market operations in the form of the placement of Eurobonds by the Russian Federation. Along with these monetary methods, antimonopoly policy was also tightened and duties on imports of goods that had become more expensive on the world market were reduced. Such coordinated actions of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance entailed a positive effect of reducing the level of inflation growth that had established itself over the next 3 years.

In 2012-2013, the state of the Russian economy was characterized by a consumer and credit boom. Increase consumer spending and nominal income in the public sector gradually led to overheating of the economy.

In 2014, the Russian economy was driven into the framework of the inevitability of inflation due to the rapid devaluation of the ruble, associated with both the fall in oil prices and the political situation, as well as due to the introduction of mutual sanctions with European countries and the USA. The Central Bank began the fight against inflation by using such a monetary instrument as increasing the interest rate. It is worth noting that during 2014 it was increased several times, which indicates the instability of the economic situation. In addition, naturally, targeting was chosen as the desired method for determining the growth targets of the money supply, the transition to which is priority direction and continues up to the present day. However, despite attempts to control inflation, the Central Bank is faced with the ineffectiveness of monetary methods, because they only limit monetary growth to some extent, but cannot positively influence devaluation, the expansion of monopolistic production and other non-monetary factors of inflation in 2014. Additionally, as part of its economic policy, the Central Bank switched to the so-called floating exchange rate, which means that the Bank of Russia did not interfere with the formation of growth or fall trends in the ruble. On

For a short period of time, this method worked for us, but soon the devaluation of the ruble continued to gain momentum. Also, the Central Bank is now focusing not so much on reducing price growth, but on economic growth, although, realizing the frivolous effectiveness of monetary methods, it makes pessimistic forecasts for inflation and the growth/decline of gross domestic product.

Due to weakening competition, increased costs due to bank rates, depreciation of the Russian currency and an increase in the money supply, inflation in recent years is a complex negative phenomenon that arose at the intersection of politics, economics and social relations. Therefore, measures to combat it must be comprehensive.

To summarize, we can say that over the past 6 years, inflation has been a combination of complex and contradictory phenomena that influenced the depreciation of the national currency: starting from the world financial crisis and rising prices for products and services, ending with the devaluation of the ruble and the fall in the cost of an important element of the production and economic system of our country - oil. All of them together required a struggle, which in 2008-2014 was mainly carried out through the manipulation of any monetary policy instruments.

2.3. The problem of tool efficiency.

Whatever the regulatory measures taken by the Central Bank and the state, all of them can be assessed only by the effectiveness of the results: statistical data and the real socio-economic situation in the country after certain changes have been made.

In scientific journals you can find out the opinions of many experts regarding the effectiveness, correctness and appropriateness of measures taken by the Central Bank and the state to slow down inflation growth. I examined some of them and tried, in correlation with my own assessment, to draw a conclusion about the fairness of the authors’ judgments.

The situation of our days - inflation in 2014, developing into rising prices in 2015 - caused a particular resonance in the scientific economic community. Since this period seems to be the most relevant at the moment, let us turn to opinions regarding this period.

Many experts believe that the December events of 2014 foreign exchange market- this is only a dress rehearsal for greater inflation and criticizes already existing anti-inflationary policy instruments. Economist Andrei Polbin sharply criticizes the actions of the Central Bank in terms of untimely raising and then lowering the interest rate and switching to a floating exchange rate. The author also hypothesizes 40 percent inflation in Russia in the foreseeable future. In mid-December 2014, raising the rate to 17% was perceived as a way to reduce inflationary pressure on the economy and deal a blow to inflation expectations. Then one could expect that the Bank of Russia would begin to gradually lower the key rate in one or two quarters - if there was a significant slowdown in price growth, if the ruble exchange rate stabilized. However, such methods have no real results, and inflation still remains threatening. According to the economist, the Central Bank underestimates the inflationary consequences of the current devaluation of the ruble. Due to devaluation, the real exchange rate has become undervalued, and fluctuations in oil prices can make serious adjustments to the economic situation. The main threat in this case is the creation of a vicious cycle between inflation expectations and devaluation of the ruble: the former will lead to a weakening of the ruble, which will cause a rise in prices, which will negatively affect inflation expectations, which, in turn, will again lead to a drop in confidence in the national currency. Thus, in his article, the author depicts the future that will come if the state does not change its anti-inflationary policy.

3. Controlling Russian inflation.

3.1. Features of anti-inflationary regulation.

Speaking about the features of anti-inflationary regulation, it is worth noting that inflation itself also has a unique character in Russia. After the planned period in the history of economic development of our country, the transition to a market economy was also difficult from the point of view of inflation regulation. Based solely on monetary theory, the government built its anti-inflationary policy, relying only on the decisions of the Central Bank and with the confidence that the only methods of real influence were monetary instruments. Many economists note that only a real assessment of all the factors that influenced the “inflating” prices can lead to the construction of an adequate model of response to the problem. Therefore, finding the right combination of fiscal and monetary policies is of key importance for the Russian economy in the present and future.

3.2. What to do?

The universal question of any field of knowledge and application for Russian inflation is, of course, critically important, because it is the answer to it that determines the correct choice of the macroeconomic model used.

In carrying out anti-inflationary policy, the main problem, it seems to me, is precisely finding a balance between the advantages and disadvantages of any chosen course. Any direction - monetarist theory, fiscal instruments or, for example, incentive methods - has a certain set of qualities, negative and positive effects and consequences.

The monetary exchange rate is based on the fact that the Central Bank is able to influence the money supply using the tools that I described in the theoretical foundations section of the study. One of the clear advantages of this direction can be considered the rapid response of the banking system. For example, by changing the discount rate or reserve ratio, the Central Bank immediately affects the monetary aggregates of banking relations, because it immediately limits or, conversely, gives more possibilities for issuing loans and performing other operations. However, if the banks themselves or other entities economic relations(households, enterprises, firms) will react irrationally and unreasonably to the anti-inflationary policy used by the Central Bank, the action of monetary instruments may slow down and not lead to the expected results.

Fiscal policy is stabilizing and is carried out by the state through operations with changes in taxes, government purchases and transfer payments. Through such actions, the government seeks not only to smooth out economic cycles, influence aggregate demand and supply, but also build the state budget in such a way that all economic resources are used rationally. This “equalization” will have a beneficial effect on reducing the general price level. In addition, as part of fiscal policy, the state can also stimulate or curb demand and/or supply. The first is necessary in case of an economic crisis, and the second is closer to my research, since it is used to slow down inflationary growth and prevent a boom or overheating of the economic system. To do this, you can, for example, increase taxes and reduce transfers. Positive assessments of fiscal policy include a good multiplier effect on investment and ease of implementation. At the same time, constant “adjustments” to the state budget can have a negative impact and manifest itself as an imbalance associated with the insufficient efficiency of the distribution of state revenues and expenses. In addition, there is an effect called crowding-out or crowding out effect. It arises when implementing an incentive policy. By increasing government spending, the government ensures budget financing from

through money market transactions. Therefore, as a result of an increase in the demand for money, its price rises, which leads to an inevitable increase in interest rates by banks, negatively impacting and limiting opportunities for private investment.

Accordingly, no matter what direction of anti-inflationary impact on the economy the government or other government bodies Russia's economy may still face certain problems from the range of effects and consequences that I outlined above. That is why it is important to find a kind of middle ground and correctly implement what will help our country get out of the crisis, establish an increase in inflation at the level of developed countries and embark on the path of economic growth.

One of the articles I read, it seems to me, very accurately conveys the meaning of the combination of fiscal and monetary policies of the state. Since the Central Bank and the government are government agents with a consolidated budget, and the first agent often allocates the majority of its profits to finance surpluses or imbalances of the state budget, monetization of public debt. In addition, both of these subjects of economic relations can have a significant impact on each other, since the use of one or another method, for example, anti-inflationary impact, naturally introduces changes in the country’s economy, and, therefore, narrows or expands alternatives for the use of fiscal instruments. All this together reflects the dependence of the actions of the Central Bank, that is, the representative of monetary and monetary policy, on the actions of the government, as a representative of fiscal methods.

As an example of the picture of interaction between two elements of the economic system specifically related to inflation, we can give the following example: if the Central Bank reduces the growth rate of money in circulation, it increases interest rates, then this leads to the fact that the inflation tax (seigniorage), which is also the income that the state receives from the implicit taxation of certain nominal values ​​(for example, wages) at the inflation rate, is reduced. This leads to the fact that the government needs to increase debt financing without changing the tax part of the budget revenues and expenses. In such conditions, the national debt becomes larger.

The Central Bank cannot consider the government debt market as a market outside its interest, even if the Central Bank itself is independent of the state. This is due to the fact that the size and various other indicators of public debt represent an important element of the country’s financial stability.

As a result, an unsustainable increase in public debt may force the Central Bank to abandon its policy of strict regulation of the money supply and increase the inflation tax, which will result in increased inflation. Thus, in conditions of fiscal imbalance, low inflation today can only be achieved at the cost of higher inflation in the future.

Some researchers believe that a balance between monetary and fiscal policy can be found at the intersection of conservatism and independence of the Central Bank and certain restrictions on government actions. For example, Zemtsov, in his article for a scientific economic journal, proposes two ways to regulate and stabilize the business cycle.

In my opinion, the primary factor in modern inflation is the “exhaustion” of the investment sector. Foreign investors, due to the aggravation of the political situation and the depreciation of the national currency, are still

take a wait-and-see attitude regarding investments. Therefore, it is important to restore Russia’s attractiveness and authority in the investment environment. In addition, elements of fiscal policy, for example, increased taxation of business, generate not so much positive effects on inflation as negative ones, affecting the economy in general - the transition of entrepreneurs to the unofficial, shadow sector. Accordingly, it is required, through enhanced control measures, to make it impossible to circumvent the payment of taxes. Also, to combat monopolization, which reduces competition in the industry and therefore impedes the expansion of production, it is necessary to tighten antimonopoly policy. Perhaps, in addition, it is worth introducing control over price increases or, as the government proposes in the draft law “On Trade,” introducing a limit on increasing prices if they grow too quickly at a particular enterprise.

To summarize, we can say that, of course, the most important thing in the fight against inflationary growth is not the use of any specific instrument, but a competent combination of monetary and fiscal methods of economic influence. In the near future, Russia should, in my opinion, complete many of the reforms that have begun in the environment of monopolistic production and price control.

Conclusion.

Since inflation is a serious phenomenon that brings structural changes to the political, economic and social spheres of society, governments of all countries are striving to rationalize the use of anti-inflationary instruments to overcome or slow down the rate of inflation.

The variety of instruments can be divided into those that are used to limit the money supply by influencing the financial sector, those that are needed to operate the economy in equilibrium, balance the budget, government purchases and taxation, and those that support the regulation of inflationary growth.

According to statistics, inflation in recent years has had 2 particularly dangerous periods of rising prices, and we are living in one of them now. These years (2008 and 2014) also saw a deterioration in many macroeconomic indicators. There is no single universal scheme for combating inflation, so each country makes decisions taking into account its own historical experience and the characteristics of geopolitics and social relations. In Russia, the theoretical basis for fighting inflation is monetary policy, which restrains the growth of the money supply and targeting, which helps set growth targets. Many experts do not support the policies of the Central Bank and the government, but their own proposals, it seems to me, are often far from reality.

If we understand what a correct model of anti-inflationary policy could theoretically look like, we can come to the conclusion that the answer lies at the intersection of the balance between fiscal and monetary methods. In addition, the answer to the question of the maximum effectiveness of the Russian economic policy can be found only after the completion of structural reforms in the financial and trade sectors.

Literature 1 2 3

1. [Electronic resource]: federal Service state statistics. Access mode: http://www.gks.ru/.

2. [Book section] / author. A. V. Alekseev // Fundamentals of Economics. - [b.m.]: PKF "Account".

3. Crowding-out [Book section] / author. Olivier Blanchard // The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. - 2008.

4. Orlova N. Anti-inflationary policy: myths and reality [Electronic resource]: banki.ru. - August 21, 2008. Access mode: http://www.banki.ru/news/bankpress/?id=621546.

5. Pekarsky S. Arithmetic of regulators: how to combine fiscal and monetary policies [Electronic resource]: Forbes website. - February 6, 2015. Access mode: http://www.forbes.ru/mneniya-column.

6. Inflationary processes in the transition economy of Russia: features,

trends, factors [Journal] / author. N. N. Raiskaya Ya. V. Sergienko, A. A. Frenkel // Economic science of modern Russia. - 2001 - 1. - pp. 16-33.

7. Inflation in Russia: yesterday, today, tomorrow [Article] / author. Evstigneeva Alina // Daily business newspaper RBC. - September 16, 2011

8. Inflation and the role of the Bank of Russia in stabilizing monetary circulation [Book] / author. N. M. Fedotov. - [b.m.]: Book Laboratory, 2009.

9. Inflation: causes and costs [Book section] / author. G. N. Mankiw // Principles of Economics. - 1999.

10. Conceptual approaches to the interpretation of the countercyclical effect of government fiscal and monetary policy instruments [Article] / author. A. A. Zemtsov // Questions of economics and law. - 2010 - 12. - pp. 337-341.

11. Why inflation in Russia will accelerate [Article] / author. Polbin Andrey // Daily business newspaper RBC. - 05/02/2015 - pp. 1-3.

12. FalyakhovR. Stagnation will slow down inflation [Electronic resource]: Gazeta.t. - January 1, 2013 Access mode:

http://www.gazeta.ru/business/2013/01/09/4917909.shtml.

13. Butrin D. The rich have their own inflation [Electronic resource]: banki.ru. - August 8, 2012. Access mode: http://www.banki.ru/news/bankpress/?id=4009249.

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC UNIVERSITY NAMED AFTER G.V. PLEKHANOV

COURSE WORK

in the discipline "Macroeconomics"

Topic: “Anti-inflationary policy of the state: tools, types, effectiveness”

Completed by a student

Lee Anastasia Yurievna

Scientific director

Kulmukhametova Farida Minakhmatovna

Moscow 2015

Introduction

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

I would like to say that inflation is a very complex socio-economic phenomenon. As an economic phenomenon, inflation has existed for a long time. It is believed that it appeared at the same time as the advent of money, the functioning of which is inextricably linked. Previously, inflation occurred, as a rule, in emergency circumstances (for example, during a war, the state issued a large amount of paper money to finance its military expenses), but in the last two to three decades it has become chronic in many countries.

The concept of “inflation” is inseparable from the concept of “money”. In a modern market economy, our lives depend on money to an even greater extent than in antiquity, the Middle Ages, or during the period of capitalism and free competition. It is money that is opposed to the world of goods and services, and the correspondence between the monetary and commodity worlds is one of the characteristics of the well-being of society - a state of dynamic macroeconomic equilibrium. Like money itself, the process of its depreciation has been known to mankind since time immemorial. In economic history, the first signs of inflation were noticed back in the time of Alexander the Great.

The state’s ability to maintain the inflation rate at an optimal level indicates the effectiveness of economic policy, including monetary policy, and the stability of the entire economic system.

Representatives of different economic schools explain the essence and origin of inflation in different ways. A superficial understanding of the causes of inflation leads to incorrect methods of combating this phenomenon.

All of the above determines the relevance of this topic, especially at this time, when annual inflation reaches 17%.

The purpose of this work is to analyze the state’s anti-inflationary policy, identifying the main types, tools for fighting inflation and effectiveness.

In accordance with the goal, the following tasks were set:

1. Reveal the essence of anti-inflationary policy

2. Consider tools to combat inflation

3. Consider the effectiveness of anti-inflationary policy in Russia

The object of this work is anti-inflationary policy as a factor regulating the equilibrium of the economy.

The subject of the study is inflation processes.

This course work consists of an introduction, two chapters, a conclusion, and a list of references.

The information base for writing the work was: educational, scientific, methodological literature on the issue under consideration, legislative acts; statistical reference books, problematic articles in the federal media, electronic resources remote access.

Chapter 1. Theoretical concepts anti-inflationary policy, its reasons and tools

1.1 Anti-inflationary policy, its reasons and goals

Inflation is a long-term process of reducing the purchasing power of money.

The negative social and economic consequences of inflation force governments of different countries to pursue certain economic policies. Anti-inflationary policy includes a wide range of different monetary and budget measures, tax measures, stabilization programs and actions to regulate and distribute income. A very important condition for anti-inflationary policy is the independence of the government from pressure groups: anti-inflationary measures must be carried out consistently and carefully.

It is important to note that the main way to combat inflation should be to combat its underlying causes:

· Deficiency of state budgets and excessive issue of paper money.

· Militarization of the economy and increased military spending by the state.

· Monopolization of markets and monopolistic pricing.

· Low level of development and inefficient structure of the national economy.

· Excessive credit expansion.

· Rising prices for exported and imported goods.

· Trade and payments balance activity and inflows foreign currency, exchanged for national.

· Currency crises and currency devaluations.

· Excessive taxation.

· High inflation expectations.

The goals of anti-inflationary policy should primarily be:

reduction of inflation potential

predictability of inflation dynamics.

reduction in inflation rates

price stabilization

The strategic goal of anti-inflationary policy is to bring the growth rate of the money supply in line with the growth rate of the commodity supply (or real GDP) in the short term, and the volume and structure of aggregate supply with the volume and structure of aggregate demand in the long term. To solve these problems, a set of measures must be implemented aimed at containing and regulating all three components of inflation: demand, costs and expectations. Assessing the nature of anti-inflationary policy, we can distinguish two general approaches.

The first provides for an active budget policy - maneuvering government spending and taxes in order to influence effective demand: the state limits its spending and increases taxes. As a result, demand is reduced and inflation rates are reduced. However, at the same time, a decline in investment and production may occur, which can lead to stagnation and even to phenomena opposite to the initially set goals, and unemployment to develop. When demand is insufficient, programs of government investment and other expenditures are implemented (even in conditions of significant budget deficits), and taxes are reduced. This is believed to increase demand for consumer goods and services. However, stimulating demand with budget funds can increase inflation. If the reduction of the budget deficit is carried out by reducing government spending, then the costs of such a policy will fall on the sphere financed from the budget (enterprises with access to cheap loans and subsidies, public sector employees, social sphere). If it is carried out through an increase in income taxes and export tariffs, the costs will mainly be borne by entrepreneurs and employees of non-state enterprises.

1.2 Anti-inflationary policy instruments

The discount rate is the rate at which commercial banks can borrow money from the central bank. If the central bank raises the discount rate, then the amount of borrowing decreases. As a result, there will be a reduction in the money supply in the country, as the operations of commercial banks in providing loans will decrease. At the same time, receiving more expensive borrowings, commercial banks themselves will increase their lending rates, which will lead to a decrease in demand. The process goes in the opposite direction if the discount rate is reduced.

· Mandatory reservation norm. Required reserves are that portion of deposits that commercial banks are required to keep as non-interest bearing deposits with the central bank. The higher the rate, the less credit commercial banks can provide, and this limits the amount of money in circulation. A reduction in the reserve ratio works in the opposite direction.

· Inflation targeting - setting target indicators. It has become widespread in the last 5-6 years as a method of regulating national financial market: Currently, about 21 countries (8 developed and 13 developing) use inflation targeting. Inflation targeting involves direct adherence to inflation targets. The Central Bank is obliged to follow one digital inflation indicator or its established range. Targeting helps to strengthen confidence in this financial market, as it shows that a low level of inflation is the main objective financial market regulation policies in a given country. However, inflation targeting cannot be effective in countries that do not have financial market stability.

The Central Bank issues money through the acquisition of any assets already functioning in the economy. In this regard, we can distinguish three most common channels for issuing money:

· Currency emission channel. An increase in the money supply through the replenishment of foreign exchange reserves of the state acts as an inflationary factor. This emission channel is most effective in conditions of economic growth, which ensures an automatic increase in the demand for money.

· Stock issuance channel. This channel is actively used in some countries, for example, Japan and Germany. The government issues and places loan bonds in order to accumulate funds to finance development budgets, then they turn into assets of the Central Bank, which exchanges them for money.

· Credit channel of issue. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation directly lends to commercial banks or flexibly manages their liquidity. This emission channel is dangerous because it excludes a real assessment of the financed projects, which is carried out through the stock market mechanism.

Monetary methods of influencing inflation can be effective only in a balanced economy, when changes in the money supply affect the entire economic complex along the chain of production relations. In these cases, the emergence of a discrepancy between the money and commodity supply, the expansion of demand as a result of an artificial increase in the volume of money supply, is caused by miscalculations in monetary policy, the presence of a budget deficit, and balance of payments imbalances. Such inconsistencies (“overheating” of the economy) can be overcome mainly by monetary methods, affecting the economy as a whole mainly by compressing the money supply.

Price and income policy acts as a replacement for purely monetary methods of fighting inflation. Its essence is that the government freezes prices and nominal income, or limits growth cash salary an increase in average (national) labor productivity, and a rise in prices - an increase in labor costs. Proponents of such a policy believe that control over prices and incomes makes all inflationary expectations (both workers and entrepreneurs) unrealistic and thus destroys inflationary inertia, while undermining the ability of monopolies to raise prices and trade unions to raise wages. At the same time, it is necessary to maintain the rigidity of monetary and credit policies, and also to prevent the budget deficit from growing. Only in combination can these measures reduce the rate of inflation to a manageable level. Opponents of the “price and income policy” believe that such a policy not only does not reduce inflation expectations, but, on the contrary, provokes their growth. Both entrepreneurs and trade unions are waiting for the lifting of controls, and at this time their appetite for rising prices and incomes is increasing. The cumulative effect of delayed inflation expectations could lead to a sharp spike in inflation after controls are lifted. And the deviations of frozen prices from their market level accumulated during control make such an outcome more than likely. Therefore, the “price and income policy” can only be successful if it is extended for an indefinitely long period, which means suppressing the market and converting open inflation into suppressed inflation. This policy was used to combat inflation in a number of developing countries in the 80s. In Argentina, Brazil, and Peru it did not produce a positive effect, while in Mexico and Israel it was successful. In Bolivia, success in the fight against inflation was achieved using purely monetary methods, without introducing any control over the level of prices and incomes. Therefore, the advisability of using “price and income policy” even as a complement to traditional anti-inflationary methods is questionable, at least when the level of inflation is high.

When inflation in a country reaches such proportions that it threatens to develop into hyperinflation, the government has only a choice as to how to reduce the growth rate of the money supply: sharply (“shock therapy”) or gradually (graded). Depending on the socio-economic situation in the country, this problem can be solved in different ways. The advantage of shock therapy is that when it is carried out consistently, economic agents develop confidence in the government’s intentions and their inflation expectations are reduced, therefore, inflation will decline. The cost of shock therapy is a sharp reduction in output and employment. Among the republics of the former USSR, anti-inflationary policies pursued since mid-1992 in Estonia and Latvia can be considered successful examples of shock therapy. By introducing their own currency, these countries protected themselves from the influence of inflationary processes in the countries of the ruble zone. At the same time, prices were liberalized, most subsidies and subsidies were eliminated, and the budget deficit was reduced to a minimum (1-1.5%).

One of the options for shock therapy is to carry out a confiscation-type monetary reform preceding price liberalization (or combining it with it), followed by a strict monetary policy. Reforms of this type involve exchanging old money for new ones in a certain ratio without changing the nominal level of income and prices. At the same time, certain restrictions are often imposed on the amounts of old money to be exchanged, sometimes differentiated for different economic entities.

Chapter 2. Anti-inflationary policy of Russia, its development and effectiveness

2.1 Anti-inflationary policy of Russia, its main accents

Currently, the problem of inflation in Russia is particularly pressing. Inflation, unexpectedly for the Central Bank, got out of control in August-September 2014: firstly, due to Russian counter-sanctions (restrictions on imports from countries that imposed sanctions against Russia) and, secondly, due to the accelerated devaluation of the ruble. The peak of inflation was predicted for the first quarter of 2015, and it would become double-digit (over 10% per annum). The head of the Ministry of Finance, Anton Siluanov, predicts inflation of 11 percent at the end of 2015. The minister’s words on this matter are quoted by the department’s official microblog on Twitter: “We expect inflation at the end of the year to be about 11 percent. Last week’s data shows that this figure is trending downward,” Siluanov said.

Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Alexey Ulyukaev, noted that inflation at the end of 2015 may be lower than the official forecast of 11.9 percent. Meanwhile, according to the latest data from Rosstat, since the beginning of May this figure has increased by 0.2 percent. Since the beginning of the year - by 8.2 percent.

The Central Bank influences the price of money using the key rate (at this rate the financial regulator provides loans to banks). Such an element of monetary policy as an increase in the key rate entails an increase in the cost of money and a decrease in economic activity, which slows down inflation. In turn, lowering the key rate stimulates growth, but can also increase inflation. During the boom in the foreign exchange market, the Central Bank sharply increased the key rate to 17% and lowers it over time (currently to 14%), focusing on inflation expectations. The high rate led to an increase in the cost of loans; for companies, in some cases, they became unaffordable and unprofitable; this led, on the one hand, to a slowdown in price growth, and on the other, to an increase in the attractiveness of deposits (rates on them also increased).

Key rate

In the future, in their actions to combat inflation, the relevant departments make forecasts on its dynamics and develop action scenarios based on them. Such scenarios, of course, can be adjusted over time depending on the current situation.

Some stabilization of the ruble exchange rate and oil prices indirectly indicate that we should no longer wait for serious reasons for an increase in the rate of inflation.

Improving the tax system should occupy a special level in anti-inflationary policy:

· reducing the number of taxes levied;

· refusal to use inflation as a source of budget financing. For this purpose, it is necessary to regularly revaluate fixed assets, index all income limiters of enterprises that appear in absolute amounts, and adjust profit and loss statements;

· revision of tax payments included in production costs, which stimulate price increases, contributions to the pension fund, social insurance fund, employment fund, land payments, property taxes, etc.;

· changes in taxation methods;

· liquidation of state debt to sectors and spheres of the national economy;

· regulation of distribution relations between the budgets of the Federation and the budgets of the regions.

Government debt to GDP

An important direction in anti-inflationary policy is the further development and government regulation of the foreign exchange and financial markets, as well as improving the mechanism for forming the exchange rate.

basis foreign economic activity the development of exports and the strengthening of its base continue to remain, which requires ensuring effective export and exchange control in order to stop the “flight” of capital abroad and ensure the timely and complete payment of taxes on these transactions. The country's economy needs a program for the return of Russian capital, as well as attracting foreign capital for investment. This could also be helped by restoring confidence in banks and government.

It is necessary to neutralize external factors of inflation through the use of tax duties and the development of import-substituting industries, as well as limit the dollarization of the economy (now the dollar essentially serves as a parallel currency).

The restructuring of exports and imports can be of great importance in curbing inflation. We are talking about a transition from a raw material orientation of exports to technological types of products, as well as a rejection of bargain prices at which domestic raw materials are sold and tens of billions of dollars in export revenue are lost per year.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is the main body in carrying out anti-inflationary policy; it also carries out monetary regulation. It should focus not only on reducing inflation, but also on a more balanced and stable development of the economy, as well as softening restrictions on the money supply in circulation and seeking to improve its structure, since higher growth rates of less liquid components of the money supply lead to a weakening of inflationary pressures, a reduction The same amount of cash allows you to reduce the rate of inflation. An improvement in the structure of the money supply also implies a more active influence of the Bank of Russia on the turnover serviced by quasi-money and money surrogates.

2.2 The effectiveness of Russian anti-inflationary policy

Developed countries conduct in-depth research in the field of organizing monetary relations, which allows them to develop a fairly effective mechanism for the influence of monetary policy on processes in the real economy.

In its nature, intensity, and manifestations, inflation can be very different, although it is designated by one term. Inflationary processes cannot be considered as a direct result of only a certain policy, a policy of expanding monetary emission or deficit regulation of production. The rise in prices turns out to be not just a consequence of “ill will” and ill-considered actions of government officials, but an inevitable result of deep processes in the economy, an objective consequence of the growing imbalances between supply and demand, the production of consumer goods and means of production, accumulation and consumption, etc. As a result, the inflation process (in its various manifestations) is not random, but rather stable and practically inevitable.

In developing countries, there is a more active participation of the state in regulating monetary relations. Despite the recognition of Russia as a country with a market economy, in fact, it continues to be a typical example of an economic system with emerging markets. Characteristic features of such systems are the incompleteness of structural changes, underdeveloped financial markets, and exposure to the threat of external shocks. An unstable internal and external environment contributes to the accumulation of systemic imbalances, which include open inflation. Russia is characterized by stable, fairly high inflation, despite the efforts of the authorities. This indicates the presence of constantly operating factors influencing the nature of monetary relations, as well as the limitations and ineffectiveness of existing methods for managing these relations.

The history of Russian inflation regulation reveals the lack of independence of monetary regulation. Despite the development Central Bank RF of all instruments to influence the scale of monetary circulation and the value of money, inflation is not fully under the control of the country's central issuing body. And the reason is not only in non-monetary causes of inflation. Monetary policy is strictly linked to other types of economic policies, in particular monetary and fiscal, and the specific state of the economy.

The fight against inflation in Russia is carried out using uneven methods; despite an attempt to keep inflation within the given limits, the country's leadership finances several highly costly projects. Russia's anti-inflationary policy is poorly developed, since government agencies are fighting for certain indicators rather than trying to curb inflation. The government believes that inflation in our country should not exceed 5-6 percent in the next few years, but this will be difficult to achieve.

Nevertheless, Russian practice anti-inflationary policy does not stand still, as evidenced by the decline in inflation from year to year. During the 90s of the 20th century (during the period of “shock therapy”), there was severe inflation, which reached an increase in the price level of 20 times or more, which led to serious consequences for the Russian national economy.

At that point in history, the government managed to temporarily curb the high level of inflation, but the 1998 crisis again led to rising prices and nullified all the government’s efforts. During the early 2000s, the inflation rate was kept under control and brought to the level of 10% per year

The economic crisis of 2008 again raised the inflation rate (more than 10% per year), but already in 2010 the government managed to reduce it to a creeping inflation level of 7-9%. However, today's inflation rate is also much higher than the inflation rate in developed countries, which forces the Russian government to pursue a more deliberate policy in relation to the level of inflation in the country.

The imbalance of the transition economic system, structural problems in the economy, the high prevalence of monopoly firms, the weakening of the domestic currency, all of these are the reasons for the increase in inflation rates.

Currently, two options for anti-inflationary policies dominate.

Option 1 involves maximum use of market regulators:

· introduction of free prices with limited wage growth;

· maintaining a floating and, if possible, stable exchange rate of the national currency;

· liberalization of enterprises' activities;

· gradual reduction of the scope of economic activity of the state (limitation of state activities by budget problems, regulation of the growth rate of the money supply in circulation);

The second option is more active government intervention in economic processes:

· regulation of foreign trade and foreign exchange transactions;

· stimulation of entrepreneurship;

· stimulation of population savings;

· development of market infrastructure;

· support of vital industries and production;

· freezing price and wage increases;

The experience of fighting inflation shows that:

· it is necessary to implement mixed anti-inflationary programs;

· a combination of long-term (strategic) and short-term (tactical) measures is advisable.

Long-term measures (support for small businesses and entrepreneurship, weakening of customs and other barriers, control and fight against monopolism, etc.) are ineffective if they are not supported by work to dampen inflation expectations. The solution to the problem of meeting inflationary expectations lies in achieving public confidence in government policy. To achieve this, the government: develops a set of measures for anti-inflationary regulation, constantly informs about their implementation and results, and achieves the implementation of the assigned tasks to combat inflation. As a result of constant compliance with government promises over a long period of time, the population begins to gain confidence in the next government measures announced to curb inflation, and the so-called “announcement effect” is triggered.

All measures of the anti-inflationary strategy must be supported by the process of stabilization and development of production. To this end, the state must develop a policy to stimulate advanced scientific and technological developments, clearly define the main directions of structural policy, and pursue a policy of supporting investment investments.

The simultaneous use of strategic and tactical measures (increasing supply without changing demand and vice versa; reasonable organization of privatization; one-time massive release of consumer goods onto the market; increasing interest rates on deposits) ultimately lead to the creation of conditions for achieving and maintaining low inflation rates that do not affect development market economy.

According to a number of economists, even inflation itself is not so much scary as the lack of a real forecast for it. When inflation becomes unpredictable, it scares investors. They should know its level at least 2-3 years in advance. It is better to predict high inflation and meet the forecast than to announce a low level and not meet your own forecast.

The regime of containing inflation through the refinancing rate was criticized Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz back in 2008. Inflation targeting may be a good thing, but it should not be turned into an end in itself, warns Igor Nikolaev, director of the Institute for Strategic Analysis at FBK.

The Central Bank chose too difficult a period to transition to a new policy, says Alexey Kozlov, chief analyst at UFS IC. Inflation has a multiple nature and at the moment it is mostly non-monetary in nature, which weakens the regulator’s ability to influence changes in consumer prices.

In addition, price changes are not always caused only by monetary factors controlled by the monetary regulator. In particular, the acceleration of consumer price growth in Russia is now largely due to the devaluation of the ruble and the rise in prices of imported goods, notes Mikhail Khromov, a leading expert at the Center for Structural Research at the Gaidar Institute. And it is impossible to defeat inflation only using monetary policy instruments. Raising the (refinancing) rate will not lead to a reduction in inflation. To combat it, it is more effective to develop competition and create companies, thereby boosting the economy.

Conclusion

Some economists believe that low inflation is reviving economic conditions. However, it should be remembered that the harmfulness of even a small level of inflation lies in the distortion of the price signal. Economic solutions, taking into account distorted price information, even if they are accepted according to all the rules of rationality, are becoming less and less effective. Prices that take into account distorted information deepen imbalances in the economy and, other things being equal, inflation rates can reach a higher level. High inflation, which subsequently develops into hyperinflation, turns into a disaster for the entire economy. In the long run, all economic agents suffer - households, businesses, the state budget. What policy should we pursue against inflation? It is impossible to completely get rid of inflation; it is necessary to reduce its rate to the minimum possible and predictable level. It is necessary to pay attention to the nature of inflation; the methods of combating it depend on it, that is, on the causes of its occurrence and on the rate of price growth.

We also need to prevent inflation. In the even longer term, under conditions of full employment, it is necessary to stimulate the expansion of potential GNP through structural and scientific and technological policies. Moreover, preference here should be given not to budget financing, but to the creation of economic incentives to increase labor productivity, introduce new technologies and create new industries, transform old industries on a new technical basis.

The main principle of fighting inflation is the destruction of its sources. Time lags in political decision-making and their lobbying are the causes of monetary inflation, as they lead to inefficiency budget expenditures, swelling of the money supply and, ultimately, distortion of the price signal. The immobility of production, the discreteness and unevenness of the emergence and implementation of new technologies, the uneven development of the economic system are the objective reasons for the non-monetary distortion of the price signal in the long term. anti-inflationary Russian ruble exchange rate

Consequently, if there are objective reasons for the occurrence of inflation, then this phenomenon cannot be completely eliminated. Therefore, the most realistic goal of anti-inflationary policy is not the absolute elimination of inflation, but the reduction of inflationary intensity and maintaining its rate at a stably low and predictable level.

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Essence, causes and types of inflation. Methods for measuring inflation. Anti-inflationary policy in the Russian Federation. Basic measures to combat inflation. Methods of fiscal policy. Types of anti-inflationary policies. Changes in the exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar and euro.

test, added 10/02/2014


Inflation. Causes of inflation. Demand and cost inflation. Types of inflation. Anti-inflationary policy. Fiscal policy. Monetary policy. Natural rate hypothesis. Anti-inflationary policies in some countries of the world.

course work, added 03/01/2007


Inflation as a socio-economic phenomenon. The concept of inflation, its types and measurement. Causes and forms of manifestation of inflation. Social and economic consequences of inflation in the Russian Federation. Anti-inflationary policy in the Russian Federation.

course work, added 04/12/2008


The role of the state in maintaining macroeconomic balance. Socio-economic consequences of inflation. Determination of inflation indices. Monetarist and Keynesian methods of anti-inflationary policy. Monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

test, added 09/30/2009


Essence, types and causes of inflation. Methods for measuring inflation. Socio-economic consequences of inflation. Phillips curve. Anti-inflationary policy. Peculiarities Russian inflation at the present stage, its causes. Anti-inflationary policy in Russia.